Black Monday

[JBmurc]

No question - China is in this contest clearly not coming out smelling like roses. They did have murderous phases in their past, they do have a government without democratic legitimation and little respect for any human rights.

Some of the issues Trump is highlighting (like IP theft and unfair conditions for foreign companies operating in China) are justified and worthwhile to fight against, some other of his issues (like unbalanced bilateral trade balance) are just demonstrating his limited understanding (or better the lack thereof) of the economic system.

Problem is that Trump is in no way better than Xi, he only operates in a system which restricts his powers a bit more. Problem is that he is a repulsive bully who takes on everybody - friend and allies - at the same time to demonstrate his strength, instead of forming a big coalition of allies helping to move China from its dark ways to the "bright side". Trump is basically p*ssing against everybodys legs and likely to ensure this way that China's power will increase rather than diminish.

Nobody likes a bully.

Maybe, in this case, it takes a Bully to fight a dictator ... previous leaders of the free world seem to have pandered to the CCP wishes

Even close to us - https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/05/15/23681/chinese-money-is-changing-the-face-of-the-south-pacific

[JBmurc]

U must be one of trump friends

Nope, though Bernie had some great ideas ... I think a Hybrid Bernie/Trump type leader would have been the best leader( ..certainly not the Clintons)

I do like the stance trump is taking on China

[BlackPeter]

Maybe, in this case, it takes a Bully to fight a dictator ... previous leaders of the free world seem to have pandered to the CCP wishes

Even close to us - https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/05/15/23681/chinese-money-is-changing-the-face-of-the-south-pacific

Well, it sounds you are not alone with this idea - even the New York Times is publishing something along these lines:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/business/trump-china.html

But than - the New York Times is not always right, aren't they?

Ironic though that the bully in question is openly admiring autocrats and dictators ... i.e. anything good he might do would be just by accident ;);

[bull....]

Dow jumps 300 points, erases weekly losses, as banks and Walmart rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/16/futures-lower-as-us-china-trade-tensions-return.html

Bouncing from oversold still , need another week of rises

The White House on Wednesday initiated (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-15/trump-signs-order-that-could-limit-chinese-telecom-sales-in-u-s) a two-pronged assault on China: barring companies deemed a national security threat from selling to the U.S., and threatening to blacklist Huawei Technologies Co. (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/40978Z:CH) from buying essential components

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/trump-s-huawei-threat-is-the-nuclear-option-to-halt-china-s-rise?srnd=premium-asia

Guess they doing what china does in restricting companies into there market

[winner69]

Useless fact but who’ve thought pizza would outperform tech

@charliebilello
Two revolutionary companies went public in the summer of 2004. These are their returns...
Google: +2,228%
Domino's Pizza: +4,196%

[bull....]

sell in may an go away worked this yr , or is it just a buying opp for later in the yr?

[Lewylewylewy]

Trumpageddon is inevitable, we all have know that for a while. We're all just trying to make hay as long as we can.

I expect that we will see a lot of buying opportunities over the course of the next year (or two, depending on how it plays out).

[couta1]

Trumpageddon is inevitable, we all have know that for a while. We're all just trying to make hay as long as we can.

I expect that we will see a lot of buying opportunities over the course of the next year (or two, depending on how it plays out). If the Trumpet wants to get reelected next year he will have to stop blowing so hard before then. PS-The wall of worry is only a temporary handbrake
..

[Ggcc]

Get ready for a sea of red today..... Time to go outside and enjoy the sunshine.

[Lewylewylewy]

Do you think that if trump doesn't get reelected, his replacement will cancel the trade war quickly?

[BlackPeter]

Do you think that if trump doesn't get reelected, his replacement will cancel the trade war quickly?

Hard to say - I guess there are some real issues which would need to be fixed. However - any successor could restart the relationship between the two countries with a clean slate. Trump clearly is burning bridges.

Interesting article in the New York Times written by Kevin Rudd:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/opinion/trump-china-trade-war.html

But this is not just about whether Trump's successor will be a negotiator with integrity and cultural understanding. Trump is currently releasing a lot of nationalistic vibes in China. The question is whether any successor is able to bottle them up again. The damage Trump is creating every day might be irreversible - at least for a long time.

Last time it took the Chinese a century to get over the crimes the Americans and Europeans committed in their country.

[BlackPeter]

China has never forgotten, the Yanks keep reminding them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change#1941%E2 %80%9349:_China

"The U.S. government provided military, logistical and other aid to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)
army led by Chiang Kai-shek in its campaign against the Japanese, until the Japanese surrender to the
United States in August of 1945. This surrender brought to an end the Japanese Puppet state of
Manchukuo and the Japanese-dominated Wang Jingwei regime.
After the Japanese surrender, the US continued to support the KMT. The US airlifted many KMT troops
from central China to Manchuria. Approximately 50,000 U.S. troops were sent to guard strategic sites
in Hupeh and Shandong. The U.S. trained and equipped KMT troops, and transported Korean troops and
even enemy imperial Japanese troops back to help KMT forces to occupy Chinese zones and to contain
Communist-controlled areas.[50] President Harry Truman explained that: "It was perfectly clear to us
that if we told the Japanese to lay down their arms immediately and march to the seaboard, the entire
country would be taken over by the Communists. We therefore had to take the unusual step of using the
enemy as a garrison until we could airlift Chinese National troops to South China and send Marines to
guard the seaports." Within less than two years after the Sino-Japanese War, the KMT had received
$4.43 billion from the United States—most of which was military aid."

And Trumpets actions over Taiwan are not helping them forget!

Actually - I was referring to the opium wars when filthy European and American drug dealers supplied the "Chinese market" with drugs and the British and American governments forced the Chinese government to tolerate this criminal behaviour in their own country.

[bull....]

U.S. to Impose 5% Tariff on All Goods From Mexico, Trump Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/u-s-to-impose-5-tariff-on-all-goods-from-mexico-trump-says


this isnt good - futures tanking

[Oliver Mander]

Wish I could sue the US Government for pigheaded stupidity for this stuff....economic loss of value on investments.

[couta1]

Wish I could sue the US Government for pigheaded stupidity for this stuff....economic loss of value on investments. The Trumpet and his insiders are probably shorting the crap out of the stock market through all this nonsense.

[winner69]

The Trumpet and his insiders are probably shorting the crap out of the stock market through all this nonsense.

It’s a mean evil world eh Couts

[Lewylewylewy]

Trump can't make such investment decisions because presidents always put their investments into blind trusts to prevent exactly that type of corruption... oh wait, no, trump refused to do that...

[blackcap]

What are you guys smoking? I have just had a look at a 5 year chart of the Dow and the Nasdaq. I would take the last 2 1/2 years all day any day without a shadow of a doubt. Looks a lot better than the preceding 2 1/2 years.

[bull....]

What are you guys smoking? I have just had a look at a 5 year chart of the Dow and the Nasdaq. I would take the last 2 1/2 years all day any day without a shadow of a doubt. Looks a lot better than the preceding 2 1/2 years.

the worst may since 1960 i believe

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/us-stock-futures-fall-after-trump-announces-new-tariffs-on-mexico.html

what about oil down 19% in may as well ( petrol still going up lol in nz)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-30/oil-set-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-november-on-demand-fears?srnd=premium-asia

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/us-bonds-fresh-trade-tensions-and-recession-fears.html

[skid]

What are you guys smoking? I have just had a look at a 5 year chart of the Dow and the Nasdaq. I would take the last 2 1/2 years all day any day without a shadow of a doubt. Looks a lot better than the preceding 2 1/2 years.

Your share portfolio is higher than 2.5 yrs ago....ok...so far ''trumps gifts'' have worked...what about ''Trumps bluffs''?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/harvard-professor-says-winning-20-million-lottery-wont-make-you-happy-but-heres-what-will.html

Something to keep in mind when your share portfolio goes down, or keep in mind at any time :)

That hedonic adaption thing is bang on the money...I've been fortunate to have some pretty fancy "stuff" but the novelty wears off after a few months and after a couple of year if that stuff involves expensive ongoing maintenance or marina fees it can become a burden.

[couta1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/harvard-professor-says-winning-20-million-lottery-wont-make-you-happy-but-heres-what-will.html

Something to keep in mind when your share portfolio goes down, or keep in mind at any time :)

That hedonic adaption thing is bang on the money...I've been fortunate to have some pretty fancy "stuff" but the novelty wears off after a few months and after a couple of year if that stuff involves expensive ongoing maintenance or marina fees it can become a burden. King Solomon discovered this thousands of years ago.

[Beagle]

King Solomon discovered this thousands of years ago.

Quite right, he did indeed.

Not a crime, (actually makes a good case for itself based on significantly increased accident survivability rate) to enjoy a decent car with all the mod cons like heated seats and the latest safety features though and can give enduring quiet satisfaction 365 days a year but owning a fancy boat that one might use on 15-20 days a year if one was lucky enough to have that amount of spare time when the weather is good in summer...I am not so sure about that !

Anyway we're drifting off topic. One expert on CNBC described investment in this Trumpet climate as "impossible"
I see that the S&P 500 broke down through the 200 day moving average our time this morning.
My sense is we could be in for a long cold winter until some progress is made on international trade issues.
I am pretty cautious in this investment environment.

[bull....]

Quite right, he did indeed.

Not a crime, (actually makes a good case for itself based on significantly increased accident survivability rate) to enjoy a decent car with all the mod cons like heated seats and the latest safety features though and can give enduring quiet satisfaction 365 days a year but owning a fancy boat that one might use on 15-20 days a year if one was lucky enough to have that amount of spare time when the weather is good in summer...I am not so sure about that !

Anyway we're drifting off topic. One expert on CNBC described investment in this Trumpet climate as "impossible"
I see that the S&P 500 broke down through the 200 day moving average our time this morning.
My sense is we could be in for a long cold winter until some progress is made on international trade issues.
I am pretty cautious in this investment environment.

usa markets might be all headed back to the bottom of those giant channels which have formed over the last year an bit. although dow utilities is at highs and NZ also , suggests nz being used as a bond proxy save haven trade.

[see weed]

Am happy the NZX is closed today. Time for a breather. My picks for the next correction, which could happen tomorrow, or within the next year or so....ATM, CEN, TPW, VCT, GNE, SPK, ZEL,......and WHS, HLG BGP, SKT for a quick short term divy strip.

[value_investor]

From where we are now, it seems like this nagging issue is actually a real thing. The seed has been planted that trade wars could be fought on multiple fronts with the Mexico decision. I'm not sure the fed will come to the party to cut rates but you never know with that either. Seems like the bond market has already priced in atleast one cut before the end of year..

Personally, I've been holding cash for awhile now, only bought one stock this year so far as I see the market so overvalued. Perhaps this could be the catalyst for some demand but I'll hold my breath. I'm starting to think it might be wiser to buy the s&p500 etf if it keeps falling. Still far from a price I would jump in at.

[couta1]

Am happy the NZX is closed today. Time for a breather. My picks for the next correction, which could happen tomorrow, or within the next year or so....ATM, CEN, TPW, VCT, GNE, SPK, ZEL,......and WHS, HLG BGP, SKT for a quick short term divy strip. Lol ATM is already down more than 10% based on FX cross rate today from its $16.98 high.

[Beagle]

Consumer staples including ZEL along with Utilities and REIT's (excluding retail REITS) stand to benefit from ultra low interest rates going down even further.
I think we may see the OCR at 1.00% in 2020.

[winner69]

Consumer staples including ZEL along with Utilities and REIT's (excluding retail REITS) stand to benefit from ultra low interest rates going down even further.
I think we may see the OCR at 1.00% in 2020.

Could will be the case

Need to cash in on Orr’s foolish unwarranted actions in the near term ......but be careful because 2021 or 2022 will see the damage he’s causing.

[777]

Lol ATM is already down more than 10% based on FX cross rate today from its $16.98 high.

And down 2.9% is Aussie today.

[couta1]

The Trumpets mouth will continue to shake out the weak hands meanwhile those with cash to buy or those that just sit tight will do just fine.

[Ggcc]

The Trumpets mouth will continue to shake out the weak hands meanwhile those with cash to buy or those that just sit tight will do just fine.
I agree. Wishing I had more money available for tomorrow. Longterm holders of ATM will flourish

[bull....]

I agree. Wishing I had more money available for tomorrow. Longterm holders of ATM will flourish

unless china under new laws decides they pose risk to local firms and they blacklist them

[Ggcc]

unless china under new laws decides they pose risk to local firms and they blacklist them
You are forgetting the power of the Daigou and the people of China’s insatiable appetite for our milk products. If there is demand for A2 platinum the Daigou will find a way to supply. The demand for A2 milk in general will continue for a long prosperous time. It would jolt the price short term if China were to blacklist the A2 milk Company

[couta1]

unless china under new laws decides they pose risk to local firms and they blacklist them Only Trump would be stupid enough to do something like that not China. PS-WW3 could also occur before then.

[bull....]

Only Trump would be stupid enough to do something like that not China. PS-WW3 could also occur before then.

think china and US will just both do what suits them , china has already in past done similar to trump ie lotte in sth korea

[bull....]

nzx getting thumped except gentainers , not surprising

[couta1]

nzx getting thumped except gentainers , not surprising You forgot HLG which is not seriously overpriced like most of the power companies. Lol

[NeverQuestion]

China is bailing out banks

https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2019/01/29/the-great-chinese-bank-bailout/#1a216d682d71

Not looking good.

[winner69]

Jerome got the message from them .....it’s all OK for now

[winner69]

My mate Jared says

@dailydirtnap
Just a reminder that rate cuts, or the promise of them, only offer temporary relief and have no power to prevent a bear market once in motion.

[Joshuatree]

All is well
trade like hell
https://www.ccn.com/dow-jones-china-trade-war-reversal

[winner69]

Markets did better when Obama was president

Come on Donald ...pull finger

[NeverQuestion]

My mate Jared says

@dailydirtnap
Just a reminder that rate cuts, or the promise of them, only offer temporary relief and have no power to prevent a bear market once in motion.

Also, when the Economy is doing badly.. The only reason why you drop interest rates is to promote spending, stop saving.. which doesn't work when everyone is heavily in debt and rates are already low.. so next stop, Zero rates and Bank bail-ins (Not bailouts)

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Markets did better when Obama was president

Come on Donald ...pull finger

Excellent graph. Thanks

[blackcap]

Markets did better when Obama was president

Come on Donald ...pull finger

Lets not forget Obama started his presidency after the GFC had just decimated markets, Trump started his 9 years into a bull run.

[bull....]

big rally this week on rate cut hopes in US

Dow surges 300 points after weak jobs report spurs rate-cut hopes
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/us-futures-edge-higher-as-wall-street-rally-set-to-continue-jobs-data-in-focus.html


even japan might cut rates

The Bank of Japan will lower its short-term interest rate to -0.3% from -0.1% in September to head off risks posed by an expected Federal Reserve rate cut, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a research note

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-07/boj-to-cut-negative-rate-to-0-3-in-september-jpmorgan-says?srnd=premium-asia

RBA say will be cutting again this yr and dare i say NZ will have too again at some stage. i reckon 3% mortgage rates next yr

[winner69]

big rally this week on rate cut hopes in US

Dow surges 300 points after weak jobs report spurs rate-cut hopes
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/us-futures-edge-higher-as-wall-street-rally-set-to-continue-jobs-data-in-focus.html


even japan might cut rates

The Bank of Japan will lower its short-term interest rate to -0.3% from -0.1% in September to head off risks posed by an expected Federal Reserve rate cut, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a research note

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-07/boj-to-cut-negative-rate-to-0-3-in-september-jpmorgan-says?srnd=premium-asia

RBA say will be cutting again this yr and dare i say NZ will have too again at some stage. i reckon 3% mortgage rates next yr

Terrible jobs numbers ...good for the market

Let the speculation continue ......this is not investing

[BeeBop]

Terrible jobs numbers ...good for the market

Let the speculation continue ......this is not investing

Totally agree with you....I am really trying to stay focused on the companies I have and their fundamentals to get a view on the impact of rate cuts; for some it is good but in reality some of the share prices within my listed investment trusts are getting well over heated....just today one large cap FTSE listed fund surged 2.5% on the rate cut PREDICTION, it has broken out of its normal NAV/share price ratio. Of course I will continue to hold for the time being but come on there is a lot of hype. One assumes that many of the dividend payers will become more attractive again in for off-shore cash (in spite of the slight USD ease back)...no doubt there may well be holders of Yen looking for an income!

[Aaron]

Terrible jobs numbers ...good for the market

Let the speculation continue ......this is not investing

Good point but it is the only game in town if nothing makes sense from a yield perspective. My yield hopes might be unrealistic in the new normal.

[Lewylewylewy]

A thought crossed my mind: Trump doesn't have his assets in a blind trust, which means he is in the works best position to perform tailored market manipulation. I read that he's done market manipulation before, which makes me wonder if he could notice and action the opportunity now?

I wonder this due to the super fast turn around with the Mexican tariffs. There's no way that Mexico could plan action quick enough to satisfy his requirements, so there's something disingenuous going on there... or maybe someone just convinced him that it was too damaging a game to play, especially while taking on China?

[bull....]

A thought crossed my mind: Trump doesn't have his assets in a blind trust, which means he is in the works best position to perform tailored market manipulation. I read that he's done market manipulation before, which makes me wonder if he could notice and action the opportunity now?

I wonder this due to the super fast turn around with the Mexican tariffs. There's no way that Mexico could plan action quick enough to satisfy his requirements, so there's something disingenuous going on there... or maybe someone just convinced him that it was too damaging a game to play, especially while taking on China?

futures are showing another big jump for US markets monday at this time thx to trump. be back to new highs no worries eh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-08/trump-gets-mexico-deal-and-once-again-backs-away-from-tariffs?srnd=premium-asia

by the way did anyone notice the amazing run beyond meat is having , reminds me of the cannabis stocks lol

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/beyond-meat-stock-price-up-more-than-18-percent-after-passing-its-first-quarterly-earnings-test-since-ipo-debut/

[blackcap]

A thought crossed my mind: Trump doesn't have his assets in a blind trust, which means he is in the works best position to perform tailored market manipulation. I read that he's done market manipulation before, which makes me wonder if he could notice and action the opportunity now?

I wonder this due to the super fast turn around with the Mexican tariffs. There's no way that Mexico could plan action quick enough to satisfy his requirements, so there's something disingenuous going on there... or maybe someone just convinced him that it was too damaging a game to play, especially while taking on China?

Mexico have put a whole heap of troops (thousands) on their southern border and have detained central Americans getting through. That is why Trump has said that a deal/no tarrif situation may be forthcoming.

[Lewylewylewy]

Ah thx guys.

[stoploss]

Trump will be back for more something like build my wall or I’ll put a 20% tariff on ...,,

[NeverQuestion]

Must view for anyone worried about stock market crash I think

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSxPouPCIM

This is how quickly high debt can bring a crash..

[bull....]

futures are showing another big jump for US markets monday at this time thx to trump. be back to new highs no worries eh

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-08/trump-gets-mexico-deal-and-once-again-backs-away-from-tariffs?srnd=premium-asia

by the way did anyone notice the amazing run beyond meat is having , reminds me of the cannabis stocks lol

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/beyond-meat-stock-price-up-more-than-18-percent-after-passing-its-first-quarterly-earnings-test-since-ipo-debut/

beyond meat on fire , the future of real meat is doomed lol

anyway real news

Trump: If President Xi does not attend G-20, more China tariffs will go into effect immediately
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/10/trump-if-president-xi-does-not-attend-g20-more-china-tariffs-will-go-into-effect-immediately.html

trumps laid down the law

[bottomfeeder]

Market seems to have gone a little over the top lately. Everything seems to be going up. Time to sell up and wait it out a bit?

[whatsup]

Lets not forget Obama started his presidency after the GFC had just decimated markets, Trump started his 9 years into a bull run.

Bc, but caused by Clinton !

[Leftfield]

Market seems to have gone a little over the top lately. Everything seems to be going up. Time to sell up and wait it out a bit?

In my experience, hardly a month passes by without someone thinking or posting like you.

Best you only invest in companies you have faith in (in the long term) and remember it is all about "time in the market, not timing the market."

It is also about individual companies, not the index. There are always companies outperforming the index. The skill is to find these.

FWIW an ANZ economist interviewed on the radio today, expects the NZ economy to perform better in the second half of this year, and well into 2020 and added to that at some stage the world will wake up to what a great wee economy we have (and some great companies competing on the International stage) all protected by some marvellous Free Trade agreements and pretty immune from Trump's trade wars.

JMHO - DYOR and take responsibility for your own decisions.

[Joshuatree]

Was reading a westpac handout while waiting in queue yest. They est prop prices gaining 7% after the cap gains tax quash , low int rates, inflation etc.

[bottomfeeder]

I dont believe the adage "its time in the market, not timing the market" Also when everyone says its all good and its going to get better, I tend to get a bit cautious. Too many pundits see a sp go up dramatically and suggest it is a buy, and conversely when it drops dramatically, its time to sell. I just dont understand this thinking. Only thing that makes me think the market is not going to crash and burn, is that interest rates are going to stay low for a few years yet.

[Leftfield]

I dont believe the adage "its time in the market, not timing the market" Also when everyone says its all good and its going to get better, I tend to get a bit cautious. Too many pundits see a sp go up dramatically and suggest it is a buy, and conversely when it drops dramatically, its time to sell. I just dont understand this thinking. Only thing that makes me think the market is not going to crash and burn, is that interest rates are going to stay low for a few years yet.

Each to his/her own, tho' I can't help wondering if you ever have read 'The intelligent Investor' by Benjamin Graham?

[bottomfeeder]

May have read that one, but over the years I have read so many books, I cant remember them all. All I can say is if those authors knew it all, they would be too busy investing to write books. If their secrets worked so well why are they selling books on what they think they know. I think througout an investing career, there are ups and downs. Its amazing how people tell them selves they are such great investors, when they encounter a long term bull market.

[Baa_Baa]

Market seems to have gone a little over the top lately. Everything seems to be going up. Time to sell up and wait it out a bit?

Given your responses, was this meant as a question?

[BeeBop]

Bottom feeder....if you are in the market just consider the stocks you are holding, are their prices fair for what they do, what are they saying they are GOING to do? If you are into index funds, how is the sentiment for that arena? Just because things are hot, it doesn’t mean it is bad. Take the S&P500 that was booming late last year based on some heady momentum on a set of 5 or 6 stocks but then it dropped a lot at Xmas the overall P/e had dropped considerably, and through the first part of the year, it picked up again. There are great stocks in there...for me, it is about selecting carefully based on an the past and the estimated future - I try to read carefully around the mood and strategic view and it hasn’t seen me fully wrong as of yet. (Note: I did sell up a large set of shares in June 18 as the fundamentals didn’t stack up...mostly FAANG stocks and that paid off nicely. In NZ, I boosted my holdings on stocks with good value fundamentals and futures that I believe in.

[Leftfield]

May have read that one, but over the years I have read so many books, I cant remember them all. All I can say is if those authors knew it all, they would be too busy investing to write books......etc

Crikey bottomfeeder you are the Guru! I'd better start selling my shares (and books) and start building a bunker!!

[bull....]

beyond meat on fire , the future of real meat is doomed lol



beyond meat has come down with a thud today

[BlackPeter]

May have read that one, but over the years I have read so many books, I cant remember them all. All I can say is if those authors knew it all, they would be too busy investing to write books. If their secrets worked so well why are they selling books on what they think they know. I think througout an investing career, there are ups and downs. Its amazing how people tell them selves they are such great investors, when they encounter a long term bull market.

LOL - you can't remember Benjamin Graham? Trust me, he didn't write his books to become rich - he made his money with investing. And - ah, yes - Warren Buffett learned from him (Ben Graham was one of his teachers and mentors), but you probably don't know that guy either ;)?

[winner69]

LOL - you can't remember Benjamin Graham? Trust me, he didn't write his books to become rich - he made his money with investing. And - ah, yes - Warren Buffett learned from him (Ben Graham was one of his teachers and mentors), but you probably don't know that guy either ;)?

And of course BP there was your namesake Peter Lynch - a legend

[bottomfeeder]

Yes it was a question. I don't know the answer.

[bottomfeeder]

Hmmn, Warren Buffet, was he the guy who started Valentines.

[bottomfeeder]

Seriously, I believe WB is the only fund manager that sold all shareholdings, and told his investors they can have their money back, because it is not a good time to be investing in the market at this juncture. You would have to respect that.

[stoploss]

Julian Robertson as well .

[bull....]

Oil prices fall more than 2%

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/oil-market-opec-supply-cuts-us-crude-inventories-in-focus.html

US Treasury yields fall after report shows little inflation

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/12/us-treasury-yields-tick-lower-ahead-of-inflation-data.html

80% chance rate cut now in US

bynd back up today lol

[bull....]

Kudlow Warns of Consequences If China Spurns Trump Summit Invite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-13/kudlow-warns-of-consequence-if-china-refuses-trump-summit-invite?srnd=premium-asia


so g20 the big event , XI has a pickle go or dont go for obvious reasons

[blobbles]

Just read a news story that China pumped 1.22 trillion of credit into their economy to reverse the slow down from mid last year. It worked, but how long before that number is 2t for the same effect.... Then 5t.... Then... Then... Then.

The amount of credit in world financial systems is staggering. There surely has never been such a debt binge as this before.

[Lewylewylewy]

I wonder if the markets will be down tomorrow on news of retaliatory tariffs in India?

[Bjauck]

Just read a news story that China pumped 1.22 trillion of credit into their economy to reverse the slow down from mid last year. It worked, but how long before that number is 2t for the same effect.... Then 5t.... Then... Then... Then.

The amount of credit in world financial systems is staggering. There surely has never been such a debt binge as this before.

The markets are pumped up with years of quantative easing and by low interest rate fuelled credit. When the music stops what will happen?

[BlackPeter]

The markets are pumped up with years of quantative easing and by low interest rate fuelled credit. When the music stops what will happen?

No doubt - the silence will then be deafening ...

If interest rates go substantially up, neither the US, nor China, nor any of the larger European countries (and many other countries) would be able to continue to service their debts.

The only viable options I'd see at that stage would be
- basically all world economies defaulting in sync with huge "haircuts" on public and private debt ... or
- inflation rising still faster than interest rates (with inflation basicly repaying the debts).

None of these options would be pretty for holders of bonds or savings / cash accounts.

[Bjauck]

No doubt - the silence will then be deafening ...

If interest rates go substantially up, neither the US, nor China, nor any of the larger European countries (and many other countries) would be able to continue to service their debts.

The only viable options I'd see at that stage would be
- basically all world economies defaulting in sync with huge "haircuts" on public and private debt ... or
- inflation rising still faster than interest rates (with inflation basicly repaying the debts).

None of these options would be pretty for holders of bonds or savings / cash accounts. In such scenarios, which assets do you think would fare best?

[BeeBop]

In such scenarios, which assets do you think would fare best?

Property with no debt that you can live on: grow animals and plants! Forget about asset values.

[Bjauck]

Property with no debt that you can live on: grow animals and plants! Forget about asset values. A self sufficient property with a cache of gold?

[BlackPeter]

In such scenarios, which assets do you think would fare best?

That's the trillion dollar question - isn't it?

If history is any guidance - Germany went last century through 2 phases of hyperinflation and in both cases the owners of properties and productive capital assets (like shares of industrial companies) came out as clear winner. Anybody with money in the bank (or cash in the safe) lost. Some gold was useful for some in the short term.

No idea whether history repeats, but I suppose a diversified share portfolio of companies producing stuff and supplying services people need and some property (again if it is property, ie. buildings and land people need, not speculation property in Queenstown) thrown in might be a winning strategy again ...

I suppose that I am not the only one who sees it that way - there must be a good reason that many good, solid companies (think Infrastructure like parts and airports, gentailers but as well companies like MFT and FPH) and property are these days that expensive ...

[Biscuit]

If quantitative easing ends, that is essentialy the same as raising interest rates: it reduces economic activity and reduces inflation. Where do you get hyperinflation from?

[peat]

If quantitative easing ends, that is essentialy the same as raising interest rates: it reduces economic activity and reduces inflation. Where do you get hyperinflation from?

from all the quantitative easing!

[BlackPeter]

If quantitative easing ends, that is essentially the same as raising interest rates: it reduces economic activity and reduces inflation. Where do you get hyperinflation from?

I didn't connect these two, you did. And I was referring in my post to Germany, which went in the last century two times through periods of hyperinflation caused by the fact that after the wars there was more money around than products or services one could buy with that money.

Our current period of low to zero interest rates coupled with QE might create similar scenarios ... more and more money without increase of products. Actually - it did - this might be another reason why property went through such a steep inflation curve ;);

But I think you need to look anyway at the bigger picture. The problem which will cause the next mega crash is the global debt burden which countries as well as many individuals won't be able to service anymore as soon as interest rates rise. That's not an if, that's a when.

To "resolve" this problem (using the widest possible interpretation of the word "resolve") do I see two possible options:

1) countries and organisations declare themselves bankrupt (they might find a more PC expression for this situation) and remove their debts by "declaration", which obviously will bring the debtors in trouble who lose this money on their balance sheets - a large number of banks and pension schemas will crash; This scenario does not need inflation - however - your money in the bank might be afterwards NIL or significantly less (ask the folks in Malta how this feels).

A precursor to this situation is in my view e.g. Greece, which took on crippling debts it would not be able to service at any material interest rate, but it does not need to service them (yet) - 0% interest and no repayments for 40 years. However - what do you think is going to happen when repayment is due?

2) Central banks and governments might realise that the only alternative to bankruptcy is to move
inflation above interest rates: this would reduce the real value of the debt bubble until it is bearable for debtors again.

This method does work, but is difficult to manage ... as soon as people see that the value of their money drops (inflation) they tend to drive the price of products (which keep value) up. Ask the people of Zimbabwe (or Argentina). Can easy slide into hyperinflation.

I did not speculate on the mechanisms how this inflation would start, I just said that this would be an alternative for central banks and governments to resolve their debt crisis.

It is up to them which of the options they pick.

I guess a weak option number 3 would be to give every bad debtor unlimited access to zero interest loans without the requirement to ever repay them. I suspect however that at some stage we might run out of willing lenders ...

Do you see other options to resolve the debt crisis?

[JBmurc]

Yes Central Banker have been the buyers of last resort .. how they can unwind the trillions in Debt they have taken-on is anyones guess

The global tally of bonds trading with sub-zero yields has lurched towards the $12tn mark, doubling since a recent trough last autumn, Barclays data show.

The increase underscores how expectations for monetary policy have shifted, amid mounting concern about global trade and the world economy. “Market [interest] rates have almost fallen off a cliff in recent months.

Last week Germany sold 10-year Bunds at a record-low yield of minus 0.24 per cent. Investors who bought the bonds and hold them to maturity are guaranteed to lose money

[Biscuit]

The problem which will cause the next mega crash is the global debt burden which countries as well as many individuals won't be able to service anymore as soon as interest rates rise. That's not an if, that's a when.



I doubt that statement, but who knows. The current trend in interest rates is down as central banks try to kick inflation up. There does not seem to be any foreseeable change in that trend since consumer inflation is pretty flat globally. For what reason do you see central banks pushing interest rates up? They tried that recently and had to quickly scurry back the other way. I think there is zero chance of increased interest rates for the next several years, and well past the next recession.

[BlackPeter]

I doubt that statement, but who knows. The current trend in interest rates is down as central banks try to kick inflation up. There does not seem to be any foreseeable change in that trend since consumer inflation is pretty flat globally. For what reason do you see central banks pushing interest rates up? They tried that recently and had to quickly scurry back the other way. I think there is zero chance of increased interest rates for the next several years, and well past the next recession.

You seem to assume that inflation follows interest rates ... but maybe it is the other way around?

We just went in NZ through a period of rapid (well two digit numbers) property price inflation (aka "property market bubble") ...

But hey, I never said that rising interest rates is the only option for the debt bubble to burst ... this is just one of the possible options ...

Anyway - nough said ...

[winner69]

Interesting - hour by hour and day by day it’s all noise.

@rbadvisors
Noise versus true #investment information? @UBS shows the ruckus around what the #stock market will do if the Fed cut #rates is total noise.

[Leftfield]

Opinion piece article on front page of AFR under the title "NZ share market the most expensive in the world" (or words to that effect. Anyone with access to this paywall article to tell us if it is of any interest???

[bull....]

Opinion piece article on front page of AFR under the title "NZ share market the most expensive in the world" (or words to that effect. Anyone with access to this paywall article to tell us if it is of any interest???

they just talking about how 50% of nz stockmarket is now off shore investors and they are there for the yield, because nz is dominated by good reliable infrastructure , utility type companies. suggesting its the theme investing which is pushing our market higher as more and more yield searchers chase our still good yield stocks from off shore.
they say nz valuation higher than nasdaq now but how we all know that trends like this can last a long time.

guess the take is you know what happens one day when the theme changes.

https://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/world-markets/the-world-s-most-expensive-sharemarket-is-in-new-zealand-20190617-p51yi1

[Leftfield]

they just talking about how 50% of nz stockmarket is now off shore investors and they are there for the yield, because nz is dominated by good reliable infrastructure , utility type companies. suggesting its the theme investing which is pushing our market higher as more and more yield searchers chase our still good yield stocks from off shore.
they say nz valuation higher than nasdaq now but how we all know that trends like this can last a long time.

guess the take is you know what happens one day when the theme changes.

https://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/world-markets/the-world-s-most-expensive-sharemarket-is-in-new-zealand-20190617-p51yi1

Thanks Bull much appreciated.

[bull....]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-18/trump-says-he-ll-have-extended-meeting-with-xi-stocks-rally?srnd=premium-asia

market on fire , the meeting is good always good to talk. tomorrow fed meeting if they change language new highs here we come

U.S. stocks approached all-time highs on optimism that President Donald Trump will de-escalate his trade war with China, adding to gains sparked by the ECB’s signal it is ready to cut interest rates if warranted. Treasuries rose

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-17/muted-start-seen-for-asian-stocks-treasuries-flat-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia

[winner69]

Fed cuts generally associated with an upcoming or ongoing recession

Some say careful what you wish for

[bull....]

Fed cuts generally associated with an upcoming or ongoing recession

Some say careful what you wish for

bynd beyond meat which i was talking about last week on here doesnt seem to be affected by your sentiment . went over 200 last night not to shabby for an ipo just few weeks ago at 25

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/beyond-meat-stock-price-post-ipo-rally-short-sellers-lose-2019-6-1028287746

[silverblizzard888]

bynd beyond meat which i was talking about last week on here doesnt seem to be affected by your sentiment . went over 200 last night not to shabby for an ipo just few weeks ago at 25

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/beyond-meat-stock-price-post-ipo-rally-short-sellers-lose-2019-6-1028287746

Its happening to nearly all US IPOs, people are generally happy to pump the market up. The type of euphoria that should make one begin to sweat, but of course why not make some hay while it shines, just make sure to get home before it gets dark. Crowdstrike and Chewy also joining the Beyond Meats club in rising like tomorrow, still money to be made.

[bull....]

Its happening to nearly all US IPOs, people are generally happy to pump the market up. The type of euphoria that should make one begin to sweat, but of course why not make some hay while it shines, just make sure to get home before it gets dark. Crowdstrike and Chewy also joining the Beyond Meats club in rising like tomorrow, still money to be made.

so true. ipo market in US hot alright except maybe uber. shame nz doesnt have any people might be enjoying the same ipo mania as the US

[Sideshow Bob]

so true. ipo market in US hot alright except maybe uber. shame nz doesnt have any people might be enjoying the same ipo mania as the US

Here's another one "ridiculous enthusiasm". Chewy closed up 60% on its opening day.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHWY/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4270609-chewy-ipo-ridiculous-enthusiasm

[bull....]

Fed holds rates steady, sees no cuts in 2019


https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/fed-decision-fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

in post meeting lsaid left door open to cuts this yr

[bull....]

couldnt take out those sp500 highs , anyway gold massive breakout from 5 yr bottom

looks like we goona close new highs now , dipped on the trump comments, good buying

[Joshuatree]

Oil surging
Gold at 5 year highs $1390 plus an oz
Iron Ore etc jumping.

[Mickey]

Oil surging
Gold at 5 year highs $1390 plus an oz
Iron Ore etc jumping.
US have just agreed to taking a measured response against Iran, which probably accounts for some flight to gold.

[Joshuatree]

Although Gold trend been up for a little while now.
Oil has def jumped on Gulf of hormuz/Iran concerns

[Lewylewylewy]

I just read an article about qe of €, and im curious about what people think about the following:

If countries start devaluing their currency with quantitative easing and other techniques, in order to overcome uncompetitive positions from tariffs, how might that play out for inflation and interest rates?

[bull....]

Having painted themselves into a corner by issuing so much debt and printing so much cash, central banks, including our own Reserve Bank, are now so frightened about the potentially catastrophic impact of a downturn in either stock or property markets, that they are prepared to do almost anything to avoid it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/ian-verrender-analysis-awful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398

[BlackPeter]

Having painted themselves into a corner by issuing so much debt and printing so much cash, central banks, including our own Reserve Bank, are now so frightened about the potentially catastrophic impact of a downturn in either stock or property markets, that they are prepared to do almost anything to avoid it.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-24/ian-verrender-analysis-awful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398

Interesting article - and the last sentence summarizes it perfectly.


Perhaps it's time to get into the stock market. It's a great strategy, until it isn't.

The 64 trillion dollar question is - when does the tide turn?

There is no question that it will turn - the next market crash will come - and one of them will be a really big one.

However - while this crash will be caused by fundamentals (like debt bubble and/or unsustainable pension schemas crashing), it will be triggered by hype.

Time to hone one's TA skills, develop a really good plan for asset survival and enjoy the ride while it lasts ...

[bull....]

Interesting article - and the last sentence summarizes it perfectly.



The 64 trillion dollar question is - when does the tide turn?

There is no question that it will turn - the next market crash will come - and one of them will be a really big one.

However - while this crash will be caused by fundamentals (like debt bubble and/or unsustainable pension schemas crashing), it will be triggered by hype.

Time to hone one's TA skills, develop a really good plan for asset survival and enjoy the ride while it lasts ...

agree a crash will come one day , who knows when and what will cause it

[kiora]

Interesting article - and the last sentence summarizes it perfectly.



The 64 trillion dollar question is - when does the tide turn?

There is no question that it will turn - the next market crash will come - and one of them will be a really big one.

However - while this crash will be caused by fundamentals (like debt bubble and/or unsustainable pension schemas crashing), it will be triggered by hype.

Time to hone one's TA skills, develop a really good plan for asset survival and enjoy the ride while it lasts ...

But IF a crash comes where best to park your money for asset survival?
Property? Risk of banks asking for higher equity.If interest rates increase then risk of devaluation & poor liquidity
Bank deposits? Risk of loosing it all as it then is an asset of the bank & you are an unsecured creditor?
Precious metals?Storage risk.
Primary Industry? Complex risks.
Shares? Growth or income?

[BlackPeter]

But IF a crash comes where best to park your money for asset survival?
Property? Risk of banks asking for higher equity.If interest rates increase then risk of devaluation & poor liquidity
Bank deposits? Risk of loosing it all as it then is an asset of the bank & you are an unsecured creditor?
Precious metals?Storage risk.
Primary Industry? Complex risks.
Shares? Growth or income?

Well, life is full of risks, isn't it? That's why even the gospel recommends diversification :p;


Give portions to seven, yes to eight, for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land. Ecclesiastes 11:2

.. just take a bit of each ...

[JBmurc]

Yes we follow the trend(And not have major GFC2.0) and we will see lower rates till a point where we zero base rates 1-2% lending rates ?? currently international there is over 11 trillion is negative yeilding bonds ... this we just keep increasing .. with no direction otherwise to date

[Joshuatree]

Pieces of Eight. Maybe Silver's time to shine has finally come back:mellow:.Holding a few goldies atm some with silver credits. Holding plenty of cash/bonds too, inflation being so low, happy to reduce risk and wait for some bargains. Looking ahead, wood and food are predicted to become short globally as climate change increases . NZ is in a sweet spot here, whilst production will drop in other parts of the world it won't here. Hope they are wrong with the big picture though.

[bull....]

Pieces of Eight. Maybe Silver's time to shine has finally come back:mellow:.Holding a few goldies atm some with silver credits. Holding plenty of cash/bonds too, inflation being so low, happy to reduce risk and wait for some bargains. Looking ahead, wood and food are predicted to become short globally as climate change increases . NZ is in a sweet spot here, whilst production will drop in other parts of the world it won't here. Hope they are wrong with the big picture though.

its a strange time for sure , gold and silver normally go up as a inflation hedge , not when things look deflationary. unless there expecting the collapse of the monetary system?

[kiora]

Pieces of Eight. Maybe Silver's time to shine has finally come back:mellow:.Holding a few goldies atm some with silver credits. Holding plenty of cash/bonds too, inflation being so low, happy to reduce risk and wait for some bargains. Looking ahead, wood and food are predicted to become short globally as climate change increases . NZ is in a sweet spot here, whilst production will drop in other parts of the world it won't here. Hope they are wrong with the big picture though.

This article suggests production could drop here
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/100278/sheep-and-beef-farmers-are-increasingly-concerned-potential-productive-food
"If the 500,000 ha required to meet the 2030 carbon requirements is correct and comes from similar country then there will be a reduction of up to 5-6 million sheep equivalents. This reduction is going to result in the loss of far more jobs than forestry will ever be able to replace, and it will be throughout all communities not just the rural rector."

[JBmurc]

its a strange time for sure , gold and silver normally go up as a inflation hedge , not when things look deflationary. unless there expecting the collapse of the monetary system?

Yeah but we live in a mixed-up world these days(Interest rates down = Good times??) and I now think the inverse investments should well do much better as the return on investment Vs risk

Personal I'd love to sell the family home and go back renting($600pw) if we could get the current value given on homes.co.nz ... but where to put $880-900k NZD term dep = 3% less tax if that keeps going lower one could see how a mix of GOLD/SILVER/High-Yield equities/blue chip commercial property long fixed term would be a smarter place to keep funds.

Personal believe the highs in local Res property has been reached.. and at best a flatline over the next decade to major fall worse case.
much more rentals coming to market recently is pushing me in that direction

[Joshuatree]

This article suggests production could drop here
https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/100278/sheep-and-beef-farmers-are-increasingly-concerned-potential-productive-food
"If the 500,000 ha required to meet the 2030 carbon requirements is correct and comes from similar country then there will be a reduction of up to 5-6 million sheep equivalents. This reduction is going to result in the loss of far more jobs than forestry will ever be able to replace, and it will be throughout all communities not just the rural rector."

This in depth thorough interview dispels that argument imo.

One billion trees where are they going to be planted?

Listenduration 27′ :57″ (https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018701029/one-billion-trees-where-are-they-being-planted)

[bottomfeeder]

I am holding too much cash. It really has devalued as everything seems to have increased in price dramatically, property, shares. Buffet hates too much cash. There are articles popping up everywhere on impending monetary collapse. Hate to be in a position where I have to pay a bank to hold my life savings. Dont want to panic though.

[JBmurc]

I am holding too much cash. It really has devalued as everything seems to have increased in price dramatically, property, shares. Buffet hates too much cash. There are articles popping up everywhere on impending monetary collapse. Hate to be in a position where I have to pay a bank to hold my life savings. Dont want to panic though.

Not every investment is overvalued just far more work to find them if you have a narrow profile= Cash Dep + Res. Property + NZX large caps etc

I don't see a GFC2.0 happening overnight but will play out over time(As it started long ago) with even lower rates to keep investors / leveraged in the black

[bull....]

gold , oil , bitcoin on fire

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/25/gold-market-us-iran-tensions-greenback-in-focus.html

[Joshuatree]

Gold dropping away again (1D). Coffee may have ended its 5 year downtrend though :(:mad ;:if thats not a fake out, good for growers.

[JBmurc]

Gold dropping away again (1D). Coffee may have ended its 5 year downtrend though :(:mad ;:if thats not a fake out, good for growers.

Fed talking down JULY Rate cut adding strength to USD... see how the next few weeks play out

Looking forward to JULY ....generally, JUNE tax loss selling always hurts the spec end of town that have downtrend during the year like many of my shareholdings

[dr_]

Trump: US-China trade talks are "back on track"“We’re right back on track. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said after the talks wrapped. He described the meeting as “excellent” and “probably even better than expected.”
“We had a very good meeting with President Xi,” he said.


Xinhua: US-China agree to reopen trade talks, new tariffs suspended
China's official state-run press agency Xinhua news have announced that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump have agreed to resume stalled trade talks.
"(They) agreed that China and the United States should resume economic and trade discussions on the basis of equality and mutual respect," said a Xinhua report, carried on their website Saturday.
According to Xinhua, Trump agreed to not impose new tariffs on Chinese exports while trade talks were ongoing.

[tuaman]

Bad news here for the doom-and-gloomers. Ha Ha.




Trump: US-China trade talks are "back on track"

“We’re right back on track. We’ll see what happens,” Trump said after the talks wrapped. He described the meeting as “excellent” and “probably even better than expected.”
“We had a very good meeting with President Xi,” he said.


Xinhua: US-China agree to reopen trade talks, new tariffs suspended


China's official state-run press agency Xinhua news have announced that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump have agreed to resume stalled trade talks.
"(They) agreed that China and the United States should resume economic and trade discussions on the basis of equality and mutual respect," said a Xinhua report, carried on their website Saturday.
According to Xinhua, Trump agreed to not impose new tariffs on Chinese exports while trade talks were ongoing.

[bull....]

Bad news here for the doom-and-gloomers. Ha Ha.



should be good for a rally , us futures suggesting 100 pt higher open at the moment. seems trump conceded big time to china with huawei to restart talks

[Balance]

should be good for a rally , us futures suggesting 100 pt higher open at the moment. seems trump conceded big time to china with huawei to restart talks

Guess markets should enjoy the rally until talks break down again?

Traders' market.

[BlackPeter]

Guess markets should enjoy the rally until talks break down again?

Traders' market.

... and this might be only one tweet away :scared:;);

[bull....]

Guess markets should enjoy the rally until talks break down again?

Traders' market.

futures implied open up around 150

[bull....]

new highs in the stock market and the longest economic expansion ever

This is now the longest US economic expansion in history
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/02/this-is-now-the-longest-us-economic-expansion-in-history.html

[bull....]

Major U.S. indexes rose to all-time highs as Stock investors piled into high dividend-yielding sectors like utilities and REITs after 10-year Treasury yields dipped to the lowest since November 2016 on rising market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-02/asian-stocks-to-slip-treasury-rally-resumes-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia

[bottomfeeder]

Always sunny weather before a storm. I dont want to spout doom and gloom. I just read an article by a billionaire in australia who believes the property market in australia will collapse, on the wave of even lower interest rates. Who would have thought. Its like the low interest rate tool has started to implode in on itself. Its just a tax on those that saved all their lives and giving it to those that are borrowets and spenders. The economic climate, interest rates and stock prices just does not make me too enthusiastic at the moment. But what else can I do, Its probably going to get worse, lower interest rates and higher stock prices. My propensity theory does not seem to be working. ie. If stock prices are high, the propensity is to go down, interest rates are at all time low, the propensity is for them to go up. I fear there is too much interference frim government.

[NeverQuestion]

"There Could Be Lehman Brothers Scenes Outside Deutsche Bank on Monday"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPUZFJju-Ts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPUZFJju-Ts)

[bohemian]

The market appears to have confidence in new CEO Sewing.
7.18EURPrice increase0.17 (2.47%)
Jul 5, 17:35 GMT+2

[BlackPeter]

"There Could Be Lehman Brothers Scenes Outside Deutsche Bank on Monday"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPUZFJju-Ts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPUZFJju-Ts)

Pure clickbait ... but sure, the world could end on Wednesday - who knows, and who cares about DB on Monday?

Referring to potential job losses at DB - quite possible. Who knows - the anonymous author of this clip might be one of the first to go ...

This is the sort of stuff disgruntles employees are doing ...

[bull....]

There is a risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate,” Powell added, further bolstering the case for a rate cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/10/powell-crosscurrents-are-weighing-on-the-economic-outlook-so-fed-will-act-as-appropriate.html

july rate cut baked in. 25%

[bull....]

US main indices consolidating above top of giant ranges , not bad sign. likely next move end of mth

[kiora]

I wonder how a predictive model of ST posters exuberance would go at predicting the next 10+% drop in NZX

Worth a go someone?

[kiora]

Where to from here?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/100813/john-mauldin-mauldin-economics-says-such-bizarre-times-all-bets-are-storm-clouds-are

[bull....]

The US markets still consolidating in a range at highs. watching breakouts or breakdowns for likely direction. sp500 watch around 2958 - 60 support and 3020 resistance. im thinking if up a melt up will happen. I posted my target for the dow in this bull market maybe a yr or so ago of 30k so lets see

[Mickey]

Where to from here?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/100813/john-mauldin-mauldin-economics-says-such-bizarre-times-all-bets-are-storm-clouds-are

It feels more like a lottery at the moment. I know he's a bit of a black hat and for every story like this there's another that counters Maudlin's view. Personally, I've cashed up most of my shares and I'm sitting it out for a while. I felt that Fund Managers, ETF's and 'easy money' are artificially inflating asset values that are no longer realistic and so for me, it was time to take my paper gains and bank the profits. Whether that pans out to be the right thing to have done doesn't bother me too much as it was the right decision for me given I don't believe this is a buy and hold market.

As always - dyor and make investment decisions based on what is best for you. Good luck and be careful out there.

[bull....]

The US markets still consolidating in a range at highs. watching breakouts or breakdowns for likely direction. sp500 watch around 2958 - 60 support and 3020 resistance. im thinking if up a melt up will happen. I posted my target for the dow in this bull market maybe a yr or so ago of 30k so lets see

confirmed the range on the sp500 with the move of the top of the range last night. still watching for the next move probably during and after fed meeting

[bull....]

still hovering around the top of the range , people might front run fed announcement such is human instinct but the real action comes after usually. anyway stock i mentioned a few mths back bynd beyond meat results out and price at 222 now not to shabby a performance and so quick. fast money eh revenue up 300%

bynd just announced a share offering just after i posted its price is now down 10% lol such is the stock a tradeers paradise , trades its free float nearly everyday lol

[bull....]

trade of the top of the range working well again

Goldman raises year-end S&P 500 forecast, sees another double-digit gain in 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/goldman-sachs-ups-sp-500-forecast-but-cuts-earnings-outlook.html

[arc]

When the big boys get burnt, they finally respond.

https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/07/30/united-states-crypto-bitcoin-crime/

[bull....]

FED CUTS RATE BY A QUARTER POINT, CITES ‘GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS,’ ‘MUTED INFLATION’https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/31/fed-cuts-rates-by-a-quarter-point.html


well market just bounced of our range bottom at 2958 - 60 support we have to wait now for the range to break to get next directional move

[bull....]

dont you love trading these ranges , nice bounce of 2958 - 60 as was saying real action can come after meeting

[bull....]

trump just tanked the market with more tarriffs on china , bonds yields plummeting on the news this gonna make a trad bad august interesting now

[Joshuatree]

Gold jumps $31.55:). Interesting that the Lumber index has jumped 5.52% too. Crude oil dumped down 7%.

[Balance]

Treat as yet another buying opportunity.

[bottomfeeder]

Would be great if that was all it took. Sell your shares and hold cash. Except. Interest rates are plummeting. Inflationary pressures are right up, such as wage increases, government and local authority charges. Everything is going up except for the inflation rate based on cpi. The method of calculating the cpi needs to change quite markedly. Cash used to be king, now cash is crap.

[bull....]

breakdown below 2960 , back into the giant trading range.

[Stranger_Danger]

Would be great if that was all it took. Sell your shares and hold cash. Except. Interest rates are plummeting. Inflationary pressures are right up, such as wage increases, government and local authority charges. Everything is going up except for the inflation rate based on cpi. The method of calculating the cpi needs to change quite markedly. Cash used to be king, now cash is crap.

Yes, but if we get to a point where inflationary pressures cannot be ignored and interest rates have to go up as a result, the level of speculation means all hell would likely break loose and cash would have a huge option value.

It's a tough one though - cash has indeed been made to be trash and speculation is the new king. For example, did you ever expect to type a paragraph where you say that interest rates are plummeting but inflationary pressures are up?

A very strange, and in my view, risky, place we all find ourselves.

P.S It was only December of last year that cash was last king. Things are far less stable than they look, and they don't look that stable!

[bottomfeeder]

We should have so many inflationery pressures. If I remember rightly, we should have the perfect storm of wages pull inflation and cost push inflation, yet the cpi is so low. Such a strange scenario. Yet confidence is down, and they are bringing interest rates down. I think the economy is in arythmia and is going to have a financial cardiac arrest. Where that leaves investors holding cash and shares I dont know, but I wish I did.

[bull....]

cny tanking making the futures plummet , must be in retailation?

that 2960 level on the sp500 broke last week giving us an early warning of declines to come and the fact we have re - entered the giant trading range means prices are open to the possibilty of falling all the way back to the bottom of the range at around 2600 in time. we will know in hindsight of course.

The nzx50 is massively overbrought on RSI measures mthly and weekly due to safe yield buying will this continue who knows but buying at highly valued levels is high risk when the chickens come home to roost.

[Joshuatree]

Currency war in progress .Yuan dropped to more then 7 to the $US ,last seen re 10 years ago.This eliminates trump taxes for the moment. Good for gold not much else.Bit coin also starring atm.Mkts down futures down , tech stocks on ASX down re up to 10% eg APX. Int rates down, flight to safety happening.Chinese money could be looking to exit.A capital Flight. CNBC

[Balance]

Currency war in progress .Yuan dropped to more then 7 to the $US ,last seen re 10 years ago.This eliminates trump taxes for the moment. Good for gold not much else.Bit coin also starring atm.Mkts down futures down , tech stocks on ASX down re up to 10% eg APX. Int rates down, flight to safety happening.Chinese money could be looking to exit.A capital Flight. CNBC

If yuan is dropping, last thing Chinese would want to do is to sell other currencies & buy yuan?

[Joshuatree]

ATPIT USA mkts down 2.5 to 3 % atm.DOW hit 700 atm points down. Gold up to $1467 oz. Iron Ore 4.5% plus down, Copper, Tin, Zinc down. Steel, Coffee, Wheat, Oats, Milk, Lumber. Oil 2- 3.5% down. China suspended buying USA agricultural products.

So you think your'e having a bad day heres some relief
Thread (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/you-think-youre-having-a-bad-day.4891165/#post-39848935) scroll down:)

[bull....]

ATPIT USA mkts down 2.5 to 3 % atm.DOW hit 700 atm points down. Gold up to $1467 oz. Iron Ore 4.5% plus down, Copper, Tin, Zinc down. Steel, Coffee, Wheat, Oats, Milk, Lumber. Oil 2- 3.5% down.

someone else up at this crazy hr lol , savage eh the start of big correction to bottom of the range maybe 1000 today? nz massive over brought has the biggest to fall someday.

has anyone else noticed nz market there no liquidity anymore , volumes really dried up. good luck getting out if things go pear shaped

[ratkin]

someone else up at this crazy hr lol , savage eh the start of big correction to bottom of the range maybe 1000 today? nz massive over brought has the biggest to fall someday.

has anyone else noticed nz market there no liquidity anymore , volumes really dried up. good luck getting out if things go pear shaped

Lol, we could do with a savage correction. Prices have been a ridiculous levels for a few years now. NZ in its own little bubble, might be the next Ireland.

[Mickey]

has anyone else noticed nz market there no liquidity anymore , volumes really dried up. good luck getting out if things go pear shaped

Yep - I sold about 80% of my portfolio a couple of weeks ago and it took me 2-days to completely sell down due to the lack of liquidity. I thought at the time that I wouldn't want to be selling in a pressure situation.

[bull....]

currency war on . us just named china a currency manipulator futures tanking down 500 already for tonight

expect a intervention i reckon in us dollar

[Balance]

Lol, we could do with a savage correction. Prices have been a ridiculous levels for a few years now. NZ in its own little bubble, might be the next Ireland.

NZ is no Ireland - will not go into the differences but the principal one is that NZ economy has not been artificially boosted & pumped up on monetary steroids by tax incentives etc before Ireland became one of the PIGs.

But agree with you that NZX could do with a good healthy correction - particularly with property where a 25% to 40% drop in land values is on the cards to bring sanity back to affordability.

And in case anyone is wondering how realistic that is - I have already seen developers dumping land in some suburbs at 20% below previous sale levels.

And as you all know, properties are valued based upon previous comparative sale values - property valuation 101, whatever you may have heard.

[Schrodinger]

NZ is no Ireland - will not go into the differences but the principal one is that NZ economy has not been artificially boosted & pumped up on monetary steroids by tax incentives etc before Ireland became one of the PIGs.

But agree with you that NZX could do with a good healthy correction - particularly with property where a 25% to 40% drop in land values is on the cards to bring sanity back to affordability.

And in case anyone is wondering how realistic that is - I have already seen developers dumping land in some suburbs at 20% below previous sale levels.

And as you all know, properties are valued based upon previous comparative sale values - property valuation 101, whatever you may have heard.

Ireland's #5 on the GDP per capita list. Including the housing collapse etc this is an awesome achievement. Ahead of Norway with oil reserves on 100+ years. Their economy is light years ahead of ours...

I would rather have their model.

[Bjauck]

Ireland's #5 on the GDP per capita list. Including the housing collapse etc this is an awesome achievement. Ahead of Norway with oil reserves on 100+ years. Their economy is light years ahead of ours...

I would rather have their model.
It helps when you are a part of a trading block with a large well-developed prosperous market, all while slashing your company taxes and providing incentives whilst riding on the coat-tails of a high taxed Germany supporting your common currency. It is no wonder that Ireland refuses to join Britain in its kamikaze mission to leave the EU...

NZ had its Brexit in 1973 and had to claw its way into new markets.

[Schrodinger]

It helps when you are a part of a trading block with a large well-developed prosperous market, all while slashing your company taxes and providing incentives whilst riding on the coat-tails of a high taxed Germany supporting your common currency. It is no wonder that Ireland refuses to join Britain in its kamikaze mission to leave the EU...

NZ had its Brexit in 1973 and had to claw its way into new markets.

Yes agree entirely the advantages of being beside a huge population, however their policies also helped them maximise the opportunities. Ireland shows the potential to bouncing back after a crash. Unfortunately we are at the bottom of the world and need to try harder than everyone else. Makes me shake my head when we have dumb policy here.

[Bjauck]

Yes agree entirely the advantages of being beside a huge population, however their policies also helped them maximise the opportunities. Ireland shows the potential to bouncing back after a crash. Unfortunately we are at the bottom of the world and need to try harder than everyone else. Makes me shake my head when we have dumb policy here.
There are many European opponents to Ireland’s being able to have such business-advantageous divergent fiscal and tax policies whilst being in the Euro area. Other EU nations are probably allowing Ireland to continue for the sake of unity in the face of Brexit. However for how much longer will this continue?

[Balance]

Ireland's #5 on the GDP per capita list. Including the housing collapse etc this is an awesome achievement. Ahead of Norway with oil reserves on 100+ years. Their economy is light years ahead of ours...

I would rather have their model.

I think we are talking Ireland leading to 2008.

[Sgt Pepper]

We should have so many inflationery pressures. If I remember rightly, we should have the perfect storm of wages pull inflation and cost push inflation, yet the cpi is so low. Such a strange scenario. Yet confidence is down, and they are bringing interest rates down. I think the economy is in arythmia and is going to have a financial cardiac arrest. Where that leaves investors holding cash and shares I dont know, but I wish I did.

Certainly uncertain times.
I have some comfort that with 4 years until this salary earner retires at least my savings are with the National Provident Fund, unconditionally government guaranteed and a minimum 4 % guaranteed return

[bottomfeeder]

A lot of red ink, in many shares today.

[Ggcc]

There seems a very small amount of turnover today on the NZX so far. Panic sellers in small amounts.

[Bjauck]

Yes agree entirely the advantages of being beside a huge population, however their policies also helped them maximise the opportunities. Ireland shows the potential to bouncing back after a crash. Unfortunately we are at the bottom of the world and need to try harder than everyone else. Makes me shake my head when we have dumb policy here.

Irish policies only work if they appeal to the multi-nationals by having lower tax tates and better incentives than their neighbours or other countries in their trading bloc. If their rates are matched by other countries, the Irish advantage is all but eliminated.

A risk to the Irish model is from Brexit if it means that the UK Conservatives try to make the UK a lightly regulated haven. Then it could be a race to the bottom. The UK was the big supporter of fiscal independence for nations within the EU. With the UK gone from the EU, the Irish position within the EU will be put under greater threat.

Clouds on Ireland’s policy horizon:

EU tax plan ‘an imminent threat’ to Irish economic model

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/eu-tax-plan-an-imminent-threat-to-irish-economic-model-1.3674096

Sterling hits 23-month low vs euro as no-deal Brexit worries grow.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/sterling-hits-23-month-low-vs-euro-as-no-deal-brexit-worries-grow-1.3977627

(Irish receipts from exports to the UK are diminishing)

[Joshuatree]

10 year and 2 year bond spread is getting closer and closer together.!!
Gold US$ 1496 oz
USA mkts opening down dOW futures - 160 atpit.

[bull....]

10 year and 2 year bond spread is getting closer and closer together.!!
Gold US$ 1496 oz
USA mkts opening down dOW futures - 160 atpit.

overseas rates plunging tonight , german industry production terriible worst in yrs , oil crashing $50 hit , gold surging looks like markets are pricing in global recession? at least the us is still strong.

[bull....]

what a ride today in the US bonds , gold , stocks all over the place lol

anyway everyone one in the world seems to think NZ has joined the currency war now

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has joined the global race to the bottom, declaring it will do "whatever it takes" and echoing the famous promise by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi (https://www.afr.com/news/economy/mario-draghi-demands-a-lot-of-trust-20190607-p51vd5) that preceded an era of zero per cent interest rates that Europe has never escaped from.

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/nz-s-turn-in-bond-market-s-race-to-the-bottom-20190807-p52eum

[winner69]

Central bankers and economists pose a greater risk to the globe than climate change does.

[winner69]

what a ride today in the US bonds , gold , stocks all over the place lol

anyway everyone one in the world seems to think NZ has joined the currency war now

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has joined the global race to the bottom, declaring it will do "whatever it takes" and echoing the famous promise by European Central Bank president Mario Draghi (https://www.afr.com/news/economy/mario-draghi-demands-a-lot-of-trust-20190607-p51vd5) that preceded an era of zero per cent interest rates that Europe has never escaped from.

https://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/nz-s-turn-in-bond-market-s-race-to-the-bottom-20190807-p52eum

Orr personally will love this coverage .....

[bull....]

Orr personally will love this coverage .....

lol he was certainly well talked about last night , some might say he helped contribute to the flight to safety last night around the world

[JBmurc]

Central bankers and economists pose a greater risk to the globe than climate change does.

Central banks around the world are trying their best to run a control demolition of their fiat currencies in the hope to reach the so-called 2% inflation ?? yet shares/property have gone through the roof last few years ?? But RBNZ has to slash rates ?? WTF what's going to happen when NZ greatest boom in decades comes to an end and we see major falls and double-digit unemployment ... 0% rates ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24wsVVo_g-I


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24wsVVo_g-I

[peat]

Volatility is very high
my portfolio value wobbling around quite alarmingly this week.
however that said it is higher today than it was the day before yesterday so volatility is good , right? :cool:

[clearasmud]

Central bankers and economists pose a greater risk to the globe than climate change does.


Made me smile

[clearasmud]

Govt 5 year notes at 0.93% pa are extremely attractive at the moment.

[bull....]

turnaround tuesday , always good

Stocks Surge, Treasuries Sink as Trade Angst Eases: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-12/stocks-slide-to-extend-to-asia-as-treasuries-rally-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia

[bull....]

26400 resistance

[winner69]

@RBAdvisors
Core #CPI now at or above 2% for 17 straight months and increasing the last 2, consensus is the #Fed must ease, #labor markets are extremely tight, and #investors are pouring into long-duration #bonds. What could possibly go wrong???

[bull....]

ugly , 26400 held still on target. big flight to safety utilities only one up, bonds inverting probably more due to demand i reckon at the moment

[ratkin]

Have never seen such a large amount of doom and gloom, everywhere you look people are talking about their kiwisavers becoming worthless, cash becoming worthless, complete collapse of the world economy. Far more doom and gloom than before the GFC
Has social media turned everyone into jittery scardy cats? or are we on the edge of the apocalypse?
One thing for sure the NZ market could do with a really good correction, not been comfortable about investing seriously in it for a few years now

[Lewylewylewy]

Im wondering how much kiwisaver fund managers investing rules will effect things. We have an underlying demand that's never existed before, with kiwisaver

[winner69]

Have never seen such a large amount of doom and gloom, everywhere you look people are talking about their kiwisavers becoming worthless, cash becoming worthless, complete collapse of the world economy. Far more doom and gloom than before the GFC
Has social media turned everyone into jittery scardy cats? or are we on the edge of the apocalypse?
One thing for sure the NZ market could do with a really good correction, not been comfortable about investing seriously in it for a few years now

Seems things are so doomed we don’t really want to contemplate the eventual outcome ....so why worry about it today ....summers not far away

[bottomfeeder]

Edge of the apocalypse, and they haven't got the were with all to fix it. We are going down the quagmire of financial ruin, for anyone that has bothered to save all their lives. I knew I should have spent it and had a good time. Now they have slowly been taking my wealth, by imposing low interest rates. What's next, the haircut when the banks go bust.0

[mshierlaw]

Edge of the apocalypse, and they haven't got the were with all to fix it. We are going down the quagmire of financial ruin, for anyone that has bothered to save all their lives. I knew I should have spent it and had a good time. Now they have slowly been taking my wealth, by imposing low interest rates. What's next, the haircut when the banks go bust.0

Yep ...... same as a couple of weeks ago? No bargains on NZX today to tempt my dry powder, same as last time.

Simpler choices for those with debt right now. Perhaps I should borrow for tomorrow (lol).

[couta1]

Yep ...... same as a couple of weeks ago? No bargains on NZX today to tempt my dry powder, same as last time.

Simpler choices for those with debt right now. Perhaps I should borrow for tomorrow (lol). ATM is not a bargin at current prices, it's an absolute steal. Lol

[percy]

I am sorry I don't buy into all this gloom.
HGH had a very solid result today,with a positive outlook, and they also increased their divie.
GNE,MEL and SPK pay great divies,other stocks will have good results

[couta1]

I am sorry I don't buy into all this gloom.
HGH had a very solid result today,with a positive outlook, and they also increased their divie.
GNE,MEL and SPK pay great divies,other stocks will have good results Even if a recession eventuates following the 10/2 curve inversion the average time from inversion to recession is 22 months so plenty of time for a few more cups of tea with the feet up.

[Beagle]

Even if a recession eventuates following the 10/2 curve inversion the average time from inversion to recession is 22 months so plenty of time for a few more cups of tea with the feet up.

Not to forget that the average S&P 500 increase from the time of yield curve inversion to peak is another 12% northwards.
Who knows what the future might bring. Maybe this time its different.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-china-counter-measures-10-percent-tariffs-market-reaction-094924518.html

Markets in Europe opened up okay but is now getting sold off as China now escalates the trade war by calling Trump's bluff.

Can't see Trump backing down just as it is clear now that the Chinese are prepared to see this aggravation through until 2020 election.

Dow & Nasdaq futures both showing 1% loss so far.

Going to be a long last/loss quarter of 2019?

[bull....]

massive volatility in us markets overnight , so head spinning actually im worn out this week looking forward to the w/e. overall we consolidating at lows in the move at the moment next test might be june lows remebering we are back in the giant range so vo;atilty can become huge now in this environment. yields had massive move down again last night but still havnt tested the lows yet. catch up next week

[Vaygor1]

I am sorry I don't buy into all this gloom....

Neither do I Percy.
Down 800 points on the day.... Pfffft.


CNN and other US Main Stream Media just bursting to jump on any short term negativity to announce, yet again, that under Trump's reign the sky is falling.

Not to say a big (proper big) correction won't occur, but if it does the MSM will be culpable for creating unwarranted mass hysteria in another attempt to create its desired prophecy.

[BeeBop]

I am quite tired of the doom and gloom....since it really got started, I have continued to drag in my dividends and see capital appreciation. The volatility does hurt the short-term view, but surely it is good for the consistent buyers.

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2132420a/nz-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-for-first-time-in-seven-years.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20manufacturing%20activity%20shrin ks%20for%20first%20time%20in%20seven%20years&utm_content=NZ%20manufacturing%20activity%20shrink s%20for%20first%20time%20in%20seven%20years+CID_49 e4c674a756c68775f972a6f93a7e65&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle2132420anz-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-for-first-time-in-seven-yearshtml

Low business and consumer confidence too. Retail card spend in July was down too. I suppose it all could be just a coincidence LOL

[winner69]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/2132420a/nz-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-for-first-time-in-seven-years.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20manufacturing%20activity%20shrin ks%20for%20first%20time%20in%20seven%20years&utm_content=NZ%20manufacturing%20activity%20shrink s%20for%20first%20time%20in%20seven%20years+CID_49 e4c674a756c68775f972a6f93a7e65&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle2132420anz-manufacturing-activity-shrinks-for-first-time-in-seven-yearshtml

Low business and consumer confidence too. Retail card spend in July was down too. I suppose it all could be just a coincidence LOL

BNZ economist Craig Ebert said the contraction was worth keeping tabs on but didn't mean that the economy was definitely going to stagnate.


"July’s result is no dead-set that the economy at large is contracting, even growing poorly. The PMI was down in this area in 2011 and 2012, only for annual GDP growth to trundle along near 2 percent. And GDP growth was closer to 3 percent when the PMI slumped to 44.3, way back in 2005," he said.

[bottomfeeder]

Crash crash, do it now and get it over and done with, so I can spend some money on a few bargains, why drag it on crash now.

[Beagle]

BNZ economist Craig Ebert said the contraction was worth keeping tabs on but didn't mean that the economy was definitely going to stagnate.


"July’s result is no dead-set that the economy at large is contracting, even growing poorly. The PMI was down in this area in 2011 and 2012, only for annual GDP growth to trundle along near 2 percent. And GDP growth was closer to 3 percent when the PMI slumped to 44.3, way back in 2005," he said.

Its not N.Z. specific things that are especially concerning. Trade War or this is a concern https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/cramer-hong-kong-protests-more-serious-than-us-china-trade-war.html?recirc=taboolainternal Apparently the widespread saying of the young protestors regarding their concerns they want resolved, is best translated from Cantonese as "We want all or nothing".
Realistically there's only one way that really ends... but down here we'll be immune to all this and a possible trade war so we're all good...or so those only wanting to enjoy positive-ness would have us believe...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/hong-kong-protests-china-media-says-military-assembles-nearby.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal

[winner69]

Its not N.Z. specific things that are especially concerning. Trade War or this is a concern https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/cramer-hong-kong-protests-more-serious-than-us-china-trade-war.html?recirc=taboolainternal Apparently the widespread saying of the young protestors regarding their concerns they want resolved, is best translated from Cantonese as "We want all or nothing".
Realistically there's only one way that really ends... but down here we'll be immune to all this and a possible trade war so we're all good...or so those only wanting to enjoy positive-ness would have us believe...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/13/hong-kong-protests-china-media-says-military-assembles-nearby.html?__twitter_impression=true&recirc=taboolainternal

Our government very quiet on these affairs ...silence is deafening

No leadership here if we the populous / business are looking for some comfort.

[Beagle]

Our government very quiet on these affairs ...silence is deafening

No leadership here if we the populous / business are looking for some comfort.

Quite right. But never fear, Beagle is here :) to give some good news...the world is such a mess we need some !
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/hero-pilot-of-russian-jet-who-successfully-landed-his-plane-in-a-cornfield-after-a-bird-strike-tells-how-he-climbed-back-into-the-wreckage-so-he-could-phone-his-wife-after-checking-his-233-passengers-and-crew-were-safe/ar-AAFRzlD?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate - talk of homeowners getting into strife as recession hits
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/115048596/recession-threat-to-new-home-buyers-mortgage-rates

[see weed]

Just to add to the misery, Don't forget about $300,000,000 will be dragged out of the Auckland economy at the end of the month to pay some of their rates:t_down:.

[blobbles]

Our government very quiet on these affairs ...silence is deafening

No leadership here if we the populous / business are looking for some comfort.

Our government just rebuked the Chinese government for involving itself in freedom of protest in NZ - i.e. the domestic affairs of our country.

Do you think they should turn around and involve ourselves in the domestic affairs of theirs? Please! Angering our biggest trading partner and having zero effect on something that is basically inevitable (the full take over of Hong Kong by China), would be rather silly. Not only would it sour the relationship, it would accomplish nothing except making us look like hypocritical imperialists.

Still - none of this is good for economic prosperity. Just the issues at the airport are causing major disruption to business. The Hong Kong protesters should actually watch out for a backfire - Guangzhou/Shenzhen airport are pretty close, they are probably opening their doors to the re-directed flights. Airline companies hate disruption and given the protests may be ongoing, they may opt to drop routes from HK, instead using Shenzhen and Guangzhou to ensure stability. None of that would be good for the economy of Hong Kong...

[bull....]

main us indices still consolidating in ranges at the moment 26400 - 25400 on dow and 2940 - 60 - 2825 on sp500 likely breaks either way will lead to new direction

[bull....]

main us indices still consolidating in ranges at the moment 26400 - 25400 on dow and 2940 - 60 - 2825 on sp500 likely breaks either way will lead to new direction

pretty big re action of our lines in the sand re inforcing them as levels needed to be breached to go for all time highs again. the take from the action i guess is we have re covered some what means the bears not totally in control yet. next move after jackson hole

[bull....]

one tweet and we are back to the bottom of the range

Trump Says He’s Poised to Escalate China Trade War Within Hourshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/trump-asks-who-s-bigger-u-s-enemy-fed-s-powell-or-china-s-xi?srnd=premium-asia


Dow drops 550 points after Trump orders US manufacturers to move from China
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/us-stocks-wall-street-monitors-speech-from-fed-chair-jerome-powell.html


looks like a bad monday coming if trump retaliates on the weekend

[fish]

one tweet and we are back to the bottom of the range

Trump Says He’s Poised to Escalate China Trade War Within Hourshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-23/trump-asks-who-s-bigger-u-s-enemy-fed-s-powell-or-china-s-xi?srnd=premium-asia


Dow drops 550 points after Trump orders US manufacturers to move from China
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/23/us-stocks-wall-street-monitors-speech-from-fed-chair-jerome-powell.html


looks like a bad monday coming if trump retaliates on the weekend

Trump now believes he is the "chosen one" and we do not need China.
With Hongkong,Brexit added the future is increasingly unpredictable.
I will predict some ex-pats/dual citizens will start to return to NZ and maybe we have one of the safest economies.

[Balance]

Trump now believes he is the "chosen one" and we do not need China.
With Hongkong,Brexit added the future is increasingly unpredictable.
I will predict some ex-pats/dual citizens will start to return to NZ and maybe we have one of the safest economies.

Hong Kong is a minor economic event really - played up by the Western media, especially UK, to try and pressure & humiliate China. Not going to work as China has already said history will not be allowed to be repeated for the 100 years of humiliation & exploitation by the West & Japan.

Which leads us to the trade war initiated by US & Trump - same frame of mind from China leaders will apply. Don't expect them to back down.

And Trump cannot back down now so there's only one thing which will happen - a race to the bottom which will be reached by the US first.

Fasten your seat belts and prepare yourselves for a very very hard landing - it is going to happen.

And the sooner we hit bottom, the better.

Agree with you, Fish, that NZ is in a comfortable manageable little spot* - safe haven in every way from all that BS and turmoil.

* Plenty of scope to borrow cheap money with our low government debt to provide some cushion against the hard landing.

[NZSilver]

Imagine the rebound economic growth once it's all over.

[Balance]

Imagine the rebound economic growth once it's all over.

Will not be over until Trump is out of office - so could be 2021 or 2025.

[Stranger_Danger]

Will not be over until Trump is out of office - so could be 2021 or 2025.

It isn't just Trump, check out Elizabeth Warren's views when it comes to trade and China. If chosen as the democrat nominee, and she is a decent chance to be, she would have a good shot at beating Trump, but the idea that the trade war would die with her election is not supported by her policy mix and world view.

Then of course, there is Trump winning a second term. With the extent of his narcissism, validated by re-election, I would expect him to start campaigning for a third term the following day!

[Balance]

It isn't just Trump, check out Elizabeth Warren's views when it comes to trade and China. If chosen as the democrat nominee, and she is a decent chance to be, she would have a good shot at beating Trump, but the idea that the trade war would die with her election is not supported by her policy mix and world view.

Then of course, there is Trump winning a second term. With the extent of his narcissism, validated by re-election, I would expect him to start campaigning for a third term the following day!

Agreed - the Democrats will of course still continue with the trade war - as the West should. China has gotten away with so many trade violations for far too long.

Difference with any President other than Trump is that it will be done behind the scenes and we will not see the Trump demi-god-to-be's whipsawing* pronouncements.

That in itself will be a giant leap for resolution of the trade war.

My reading is that as a people, the Chinese are prepared to put up with hardships - it's in their psychic. I do not sense any will on the part of the Americans to bear any hardships - they have been borrowing ever larger sums of monies to maintain their standard of living.

Let's just hope as some are already speculating that the trade war does not lead to a world war.

* Don't you just love his Greenland shenanigans? How to make enemies out of friends and lose winnable wars!

[Beagle]

He considers himself to be the "chosen one". Oh my goodness.

[couta1]

He considers himself to be the "chosen one". Oh my goodness. I'm yet to see him turn water into wine or walk on water for that matter.

[Scrunch]

Don't you just love his Greenland shenanigans? How to make enemies out of friends and lose winnable wars!

At first this made no sense at all, then I realised that USA history lessons will cover how USA came to have 50 states. If Trump managed to buy Greenland and turn it into the 51st state of America, history books for the next 100+ years would have no choice but to continue talking about Trump. What a legacy.
QED

In the absence of some big achievement, history could be written with him being no more than a past president with a patchy record for what he achieved and a legacy of using Twitter to make policy announcements.

[winner69]

At first this made no sense at all, then I realised that USA history lessons will cover how USA came to have 50 states. If Trump managed to buy Greenland and turn it into the 51st state of America, history books for the next 100+ years would have no choice but to continue talking about Trump. What a legacy.
QED

In the absence of some big achievement, history could be written with him being no more than a past president with a patchy record for what he achieved and a legacy of using Twitter to make policy announcements.

Just reclaiming it .....many of the people on Greenland are descendants of Inuits ....and ohysical geography wise Greenland is part of North America anyway.

[Stranger_Danger]

At first this made no sense at all, then I realised that USA history lessons will cover how USA came to have 50 states. If Trump managed to buy Greenland and turn it into the 51st state of America, history books for the next 100+ years would have no choice but to continue talking about Trump. What a legacy.
QED

In the absence of some big achievement, history could be written with him being no more than a past president with a patchy record for what he achieved and a legacy of using Twitter to make policy announcements.

Regarding Greenland, this isn't the USA's first rodeo - they attempted to buy it for $100 million in 1946.

One of the reasons Trump stands out is the Western world has had relative peace and calm, as well as free trade, for quite a while now.

But if you go further back, you can find a lot of historical parallels. In terms of policy, Trump is following a lot of Herbert Hoover's playbook. Of course, what Hoover did trying to "fix" 1929, Trump is doing with full employment and with asset prices at historical highs. It didn't work out well for Hoover/America, but perhaps he just wasn't great, great, great enough.

In terms of personality guides, umm, the emperor Nero?

[iceman]

Denmark has come with a counter offer to this ridiculous play by Trump before then throwing out his toys and cancelling a long planned trip to Denmark when they told him where to go:

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/denmark-offers-to-buy-us?mbid=social_facebook&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=tny&utm_social-type=owned&fbclid=IwAR1f_PXFUNO1FFi2OKjd-kd1ijaGJLszcWPHRjMd7ncxWF0g1WI0eCffYoI

[janner]

Denmark has come with a counter offer to this ridiculous play by Trump before then throwing out his toys and cancelling a long planned trip to Denmark when they told him where to go:

https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/denmark-offers-to-buy-us?mbid=social_facebook&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_brand=tny&utm_social-type=owned&fbclid=IwAR1f_PXFUNO1FFi2OKjd-kd1ijaGJLszcWPHRjMd7ncxWF0g1WI0eCffYoI

Not so ridiculous on Trumps part really..

It has been done before.

The Louisiana Purchase. Alaska.

That turned out well for America..

[iceman]

Not so ridiculous on Trumps part really..

It has been done before.

The Louisiana Purchase. Alaska.

That turned out well for America..

We disagree on this my friend. Trump came out with this out of the blue on the eve of a long (and in final planning stages) planned visit to Denmark at the invite of her Majesty Queen Margrethe.
When the PM said it was absurd he called her “nasty” and cancelled the visit. Like a kid throwing his toys out of the cot.

Denmark is a very good friend and partner of the USA and so are the rest of the Nordic countries. I’m up here right now and people are highly offended by Trumps action, showing total disrespect to this important friendly part of the World.

He is a complete fool

[Balance]

We disagree on this my friend. Trump came out with this out of the blue on the eve of a long (and in final planning stages) planned visit to Denmark at the invite of her Majesty Queen Margrethe.
When the PM said it was absurd he called her “nasty” and cancelled the visit. Like a kid throwing his toys out of the cot.

Denmark is a very good friend and partner of the USA and so are the rest of the Nordic countries. I’m up here right now and people are highly offended by Trumps action, showing total disrespect to this important friendly part of the World.

He is a complete fool

We can only control how we react and act to the mayhem being exacted on the global economy and actually, the world by the actions of the likes of Trump.

I believe the world is going to have a seriously bad year in 2020 as the world has come to finally realize that Trump lives in a fantasy world where US is still #1 in everything and every country must kow tow to his demands.

Here's news for Trump & the Americans who voted for him :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zZxBNRTkd4

Which means the likes of the EU and China will bite the bullet and go their way - So be cautious with your strategy going into 2020.

[iceman]

We can only control how we react and act to the mayhem being exacted on the global economy and actually, the world by the actions of the likes of Trump.

I believe the world is going to have a seriously bad year in 2020 as the world has come to finally realize that Trump lives in a fantasy world where US is still #1 in everything and every country must kow tow to his demands.

Here's news for Trump & the Americans who voted for him :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zZxBNRTkd4

Which means the likes of the EU and China will bite the bullet and go their way - So be cautious with your strategy going into 2020.

Agree this is a real risk Balance. But like Jeremy Powell rightly pointed out in a speech last week, we’re facing an unprecedented situation and the World’s reserve bank Governors have no idea how to deal with it !

[Balance]

Agree this is a real risk Balance. But like Jeremy Powell rightly pointed out in a speech last week, we’re facing an unprecedented situation and the World’s reserve bank Governors have no idea how to deal with it !

As long as inflation is not a problem, keep cutting interest rates and keep pumping money into the financial systems.

That's kind of what has been happening and will continue for a little while yet until everything comes to a shuddering halt.

[janner]

We disagree on this my friend. Trump came out with this out of the blue on the eve of a long (and in final planning stages) planned visit to Denmark at the invite of her Majesty Queen Margrethe.
When the PM said it was absurd he called her “nasty” and cancelled the visit. Like a kid throwing his toys out of the cot.

Denmark is a very good friend and partner of the USA and so are the rest of the Nordic countries. I’m up here right now and people are highly offended by Trumps action, showing total disrespect to this important friendly part of the World.

He is a complete fool

Fault from both parties.

A polite thank you but no thank you would have had a different response.

[Balance]

Fault from both parties.

A polite thank you but no thank you would have had a different response.

‘Absurd’ is hardly a strong word when you consider the kind of language which comes out of the mouth of Trump.

Go back a hundred years and Trump would be the kind of ‘leader’ who would declare war and take over Greenland.

[BlackPeter]

Just reclaiming it .....many of the people on Greenland are descendants of Inuits ....and ohysical geography wise Greenland is part of North America anyway.

Don't forget that the American continent has been populated from China / Siberia via the Bering strait. The Europeans came only later and stole the land from the "native" Chinese (red Indians). Lets hope the Chinese don't reclaim the US following your logic: Tibet - Hong kong - Taiwan - America?

[Leftfield]

Agree this is a real risk Balance. But like Jeremy Powell rightly pointed out in a speech last week, we’re facing an unprecedented situation and the World’s reserve bank Governors have no idea how to deal with it !

Found this graphic very useful to explain the threat posed by an inverted yield curve. :ohmy:
10730

[see weed]

Don't forget that the American continent has been populated from China / Siberia via the Bering strait. The Europeans came only later and stole the land from the "native" Chinese (red Indians). Lets hope the Chinese don't reclaim the US following your logic: Tibet - Hong kong - Taiwan - America?
You better add NZ to that list....."Skeletons in the cupboard" episode 2, 5000 years ago?

[bull....]

have too watch those lines in the sand tonight US markets

[NZSilver]

Tomorrow is looking the same
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/dow-futures-drop-300-points-at-the-open-as-us-china-trade-war-escalates.html

[whatsup]

Don't forget that the American continent has been populated from China / Siberia via the Bering strait. The Europeans came only later and stole the land from the "native" Chinese (red Indians). Lets hope the Chinese don't reclaim the US following your logic: Tibet - Hong kong - Taiwan - America?

B P you are so wrong the nomadic Africans left Africa and travelled east as they were want to do , picked up some Asian blood along the way then crossed the Bering Sea down into what is now the U S , and over thousands of years changed appearance into what we now recognise as Nth American Indians, we then places Africans into the mix so you can see we have completed the circle!

[Lewylewylewy]

I think he might have been being facetious.

That aside, the stock market hasn't taken much of a hammering from political fallout except for atm, which some may attribute to non political factors anyway.

[ratkin]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1165768701645217792 (http://twitter.com/i/status/1165768701645217792)

[Beagle]

Tomorrow is looking the same
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/dow-futures-drop-300-points-at-the-open-as-us-china-trade-war-escalates.html

Yes...it could and probably will get even worse. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/trump-on-us-china-trade-war-i-could-declare-a-national-emergency.html

[BlackPeter]

Yes...it could and probably will get even worse. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/25/trump-on-us-china-trade-war-i-could-declare-a-national-emergency.html

They say there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

Appears to me now is the time to go fishing ... though a bit cold during the nights ;);

[Beagle]

They say there is a time to buy and a time to sell.

Appears to me now is the time to go fishing ... though a bit cold during the nights ;);

Yes I couldn't agree more. Going to get into chasing some kingfish this summer.

[BeeBop]

I don’t look until I get a CNBC notification that tells me that the DOWN and S&P500 have risen...pointless following when it is depressed....safe only because the capital is not needed for at least 3 to 5 years and dividends are still being paid.....this market is beyond predictable and is certainly not to be trusted.

[King1212]

China and US back on the table to negotiate....this is the game...only the brave one will enjoy the current market....

[JBmurc]

China and US back on the table to negotiate....this is the game...only the brave one will enjoy the current market....

Or those invested in Gold/Silver Equities

[Beagle]

Yeap the silver in my portfolio has been a star performer lately after so many years of being a dog. Trouble is its been so doggy over so many years I've never added to it and its now under 1% of my portfolio so even a decent move won't move the portfolio needle. We really need to see Silver up back up at over $40 an ounce to break out of this multi year malaise.

[JBmurc]

Yeap the silver in my portfolio has been a star performer lately after so many years of being a dog. Trouble is its been so doggy over so many years I've never added to it and its now under 1% of my portfolio so even a decent move won't move the portfolio needle. We really need to see Silver up back up at over $40 an ounce to break out of this multi year malaise.

Yes too bad you weren't adding when tapping on their lows .. personal I still don't hold any pure Silver plays as I still think GOLD companies are a safer bet ... but I do hold a few companies than have silver as part of their portfolio of resources in projects

[bull....]

us markets held within the ranges. only means now when the inevitable break comes it will be swift

[ratkin]

Was hoping the market ŵould keep tanking for bit. All markets need a damn good shakeout and the quicker it happens the better. Get it over with.

[macduffy]

Was hoping the market ŵould keep tanking for bit. All markets need a damn good shakeout and the quicker it happens the better. Get it over with.

If only. More likely in the current climate, a long period of fluctuating euphoria and gloom depending on the tweeting mood of You Know Who.

[couta1]

Notorious market manipulators UBS urge clients to sell stocks, I'd trust a bull in a China shop a lot more than this lot.

[Balance]

Notorious market manipulators UBS urge clients to sell stocks, I'd trust a bull in a China shop a lot more than this lot.

We all know the drill - they have already sold down and are now trying to spook the markets into selling back to them cheaper.

Reminds me of what Merill Lynch did years ago with Vietnam - they bought heavily into that country in the mid 2000s, pushed the market there up and then, issued a worldwide recommendation to invest in Vietnam. When everybody else bought in, they sold and it crippled the Vietnamese stockmarket for over 5 years!