Black Monday

[bull....]

looks like markets in a big confirmed range now , like we posted might happen a while back will be decided next yr which way

[moka]

https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/23/mystery-chart/
(https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/23/mystery-chart/)
Interesting chart – whether it is bull or bear probably depends on your timeframe. This mystery chart is the Global Dow Jones, an index that tracks 95% of global markets.
The price action since the 2009 lows is engaged in a very large rising wedge. In 2007 the bull trend ended when its steeper wedge broke to the downside following new highs on a negative monthly divergence.
As of this writing the 2009 trend is intact. It has not broken, but is at risk of breaking. The previous trend line tag was established during the 2016 lows. At that time this chart showed a large bullish descending wedge that produced new highs with a run toward the upper trend line that was slightly exceeded during the January 2018 highs.
https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/25/weekly-market-brief-bear-trap/

[bull....]

big rally monday , looks lie trump capitulated


No additional tariffs will be imposed after January 1, and negotiations between the two sides will continue."

unless of course its in the fine print lol that if talks fail tarriffs are back on

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46413196

[Balance]

big rally monday , looks lie trump capitulated


No additional tariffs will be imposed after January 1, and negotiations between the two sides will continue."

unless of course its in the fine print lol that if talks fail tarriffs are back on

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46413196


Means more meetings between the two in future - that's for sure.

Hope nobody is short the market!

[Valuegrowth]

Finally, it seems it is time to shop boring stocks. Cyclical stocks are moving out of favour.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/30/investors-are-piling-into-boring-defensive-stocks-like-pg-as-2018-comes-to-an-end.html

[bull....]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/01/us-china-wont-impose-additional-tariffs-after-january-1-report.html

"President Trump has agreed that on January 1, 2019, he will leave the tariffs on $200 billion worth of product at the 10 percent rate, and not raise it to 25 percent at this time," the statement read. Over the next 90 days, American and Chinese officials will continue to negotiate lingering disagreements on technology transfer, intellectual property and agriculture

okay so it comes down to how the intellectual property disputes pan out oer the 90days so uncertainty remains for a while

[Joshuatree]

Interesting interview with Rodney jones

"USA positioning once trump has gone will persist due to a deeper disillusionment with the direction the chinese leader is taking china."


Q+A: Beijing-based Kiwi on why we need to calm down over China (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/q-and-a/clips/q-a-beijing-based-kiwi-on-why-we-need-to-calm-down-over-china)

[Joshuatree]

USA futures looking Grreeaatt ATPIT DOW plus 500 Nasqaq plus 175

[bull....]

USA futures looking Grreeaatt ATPIT DOW plus 500 Nasqaq plus 175

faded has the rally , need to remember its just a truce to try and talk and work things out. the market is left with uncertainty

[couta1]

faded has the rally , need to remember its just a truce to try and talk and work things out. the market is left with uncertainty Will be short lived IMO then back to volatile.

[Joshuatree]

Nasdaq up re 7.7% since 20/11 by my figs
DOW up 6.3% last 5 days
Thats a great rally and an opp to unload some stocks or will the traditional Xmas rally continue. Some good brexit news would be a tonic.

[bull....]

yield curve inverted yesterday for your interest , normally been a reliable signal of recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion?srnd=premium-asia

[BlackPeter]

yield curve inverted yesterday for your interest , normally been a reliable signal of recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion?srnd=premium-asia

time to buy some more good bonds ...

[mshierlaw]

yield curve inverted yesterday for your interest , normally been a reliable signal of recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion?srnd=premium-asia

So how long you reccon we got? 12-18 months like last time.

[Blue Skies]

yield curve inverted yesterday for your interest , normally been a reliable signal of recession.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion?srnd=premium-asia

But hold on, further out 10 year bonds still normal. Nothing to see here folks, move along

[winner69]

Good read .....no doubt has an influence on where markets go

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america

[bull....]

g20 jollies are over back to reality of nothing really happened , the markets are pricing back in this. im watching for a retest of lows again unless sp500 goes above 2820 and holds

[Peitro]

Dancing around the trapdoor at the moment. Long time to go before market close...

[couta1]

Will be short lived IMO then back to volatile. That's the one, looking ugly.

[bull....]

Dancing around the trapdoor at the moment. Long time to go before market close...

exactly nice range between 2630 - 2820 on the sp500 , if it breaks this will get real ugly

[BlackPeter]

Good read .....no doubt has an influence on where markets go

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america

Frightening read - not necessarily worryisome looking into next recession (black Monday), but painting a bleak future for the way some powerful and rich humans look at the rest and how they treat them. And yes, there are indications for their strategy being engaged.

Not a fan of horror stories, but this one is worthwhile reading! Cheers for sharing.

[winner69]

Frightening read - not necessarily worryisome looking into next recession (black Monday), but painting a bleak future for the way some powerful and rich humans look at the rest and how they treat them. And yes, there are indications for their strategy being engaged.

Not a fan of horror stories, but this one is worthwhile reading! Cheers for sharing.

Are they the ‘they’ who keep the Fed in line? (along with many other things)

[BlackPeter]

Are they the ‘they’ who keep the Fed in line? (along with many other things)

I think the answer is - it depends. If there is a democratic president in power, than yes, this is what they seem to do.

[Aaron]

Good read .....no doubt has an influence on where markets go

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america

It seems out of character for an optimist like you there winner. Have had a quick read unsure if it is a conspiracy theory crackpot website or not. Which NZ party's policies seem to align with this way of thinking?? Trickle Down economics etc. It has been said in some ways that the central banks supporting financial markets is a form of trickle down economics as the proposition is as long as wealth is protected all will be fine and dandy as everyone will be happy an confident. Strong on law and order, particularly property rights, hmm.. sound like anyone we know, not sure if NZ is as far down the road the US seems to be taking.

Don't know the time delay from the cnn site I look at but looking pretty bleak today although gold is doing well.
https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

[skid]

With Trumps loose tongue its hard to know just how much is him and how much is fundamentals but the US (DOW)seems to be on a pattern of lower highs...will this turn into a lower low as well? Or will he just say something a bit more positive about trade and all will be well for a while.
one things for sure ...with him at the helm,if this whole thing goes pear shaped,many will look back and think...''How could we not see this!''

[winner69]

It seems out of character for an optimist like you there winner. Have had a quick read unsure if it is a conspiracy theory crackpot website or not. Which NZ party's policies seem to align with this way of thinking?? Trickle Down economics etc. It has been said in some ways that the central banks supporting financial markets is a form of trickle down economics as the proposition is as long as wealth is protected all will be fine and dandy as everyone will be happy an confident. Strong on law and order, particularly property rights, hmm.. sound like anyone we know, not sure if NZ is as far down the road the US seems to be taking.

Don't know the time delay from the cnn site I look at but looking pretty bleak today although gold is doing well.
https://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

Aaron .... it doesn’t matter whether you are optimistic or pessimistic as long as you know there are some evil people who are/trying to change the world for their own good .....at our expense

People mentioned in that article are typical of them.

One day the populous will really get pissed off and there will be a revolution and the evil will get their comeuppance.

Love what the French protestors achieved overnight ....good on them

[winner69]

Aaron - have you ever read “Deer Hunting With Jesus: Dispatches From America's Class War” by Joe Bageant?

Great book ...Joe wrote a few good books

[Leftfield]

With Trumps loose tongue its hard to know just how much is him and how much is fundamentals but the US (DOW)seems to be on a pattern of lower highs...will this turn into a lower low as well? Or will he just say something a bit more positive about trade and all will be well for a while.
one things for sure ...with him at the helm,if this whole thing goes pear shaped,many will look back and think...''How could we not see this!''

It's not all about the chief trump in charge..... there are a lot of jitters coming out of the UK facing Brexit melt-down. Here's a small quote from CNN on the subject.

Despite May's strong stance, her plans are widely expected to be rejected, and with only 16 weeks to go before the Article 50 deadline on March 29 -- when Britain officially leaves the EU -- options are running out.

[Joshuatree]

Nasdaq up re 7.7% since 20/11 by my figs
DOW up 6.3% last 5 days
Thats a great rally and an opp to unload some stocks or will the traditional Xmas rally continue. Some good brexit news would be a tonic.

DOW re 800 point drop, 3.1%. Brexit looking grim too atm.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Left field;740057]It's not all about the chief trump in charge..... there are a lot of jitters coming out of the UK facing Brexit melt-down. Here's a small quote from CNN on the subject.

Despite May's strong stance, her plans are widely expected to be rejected, and with only 16 weeks to go before the Article 50 deadline on March 29 -- when Britain officially leaves the EU -- options are running out.[/QUOTE

Of course there are other issues,but I was referring to the Dow and I believe Trumps comments were the dominant factor...the plunge came on the heels of his comment about China....I believe there are good reasons why the norm was for presidents not to shoot their mouth off all the time. Even Brexit has alot of skin in the game of whether they will get US trade....watch and see what happens if trump says something ill thought out about that issue. just sayin

It will be interesting to see if this forms a lower low,or not

[Leftfield]

All cool Skid, I think we agree that the recent turbulence in the market has multiple causes..... that said, I was pretty happy the way NZX handled itself today..... we live in interesting times!

[moka]

It seems out of character for an optimist like you there winner. Have had a quick read unsure if it is a conspiracy theory crackpot website or not.

Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean. It sounds like a conspiracy theory and it is being run like one because as the book says “the American people would not support our plans, so to win they had to work behind the scenes, using a covert strategy instead of open declaration of what they really wanted.”

“Buchanan understood that asking Darden (President of the University of Virginia in 1956) fund what was in essence a political center at a non-profit centre of higher learning was highly inappropriate. To avoid criticism that an organisation with extreme views, or a highly propogandazing agency was being established on campus, he recommended that the center should not have the words “economic liberty” in its name even if this phrase captured the “real purpose of the program.” Page xxiii. It was called the Thomas Jefferson Center for Political Economy and Social philosophy.

By the late 1990s, Charles Koch realized that the thinker he was looking for, the one who understood how government became so powerful in the first place and how to take it down in order to free up capitalism – the one who grasped the need for stealth because only piecemeal, yet mutually reinforcing assaults on the system would survive the prying eyes of the media – was James Buchanan. Koch never lied to himself about what he was doing. Page xxvi.
From then on (late 1990s) Charles Koch contributed generously to turning those ideas into his personal operational strategy to, as the team saw it, save capitalism from democracy permanently. … ideas so ground-breaking, so thoroughly thought out, so rigorously tight, that once put into operation, they could secure the transformation in American governance he wanted.

https://www.bookbrowse.com/bb_briefs/detail/index.cfm/ezine_preview_number/12452/democracy-in-chains#summary

[moka]

Are they the ‘they’ who keep the Fed in line? (along with many other things)


I think the answer is - it depends. If there is a democratic president in power, than yes, this is what they seem to do.

In 2010 the brilliant investigative journalist Jane Mayer alerted Americans to the fact that two billionaire brothers, Charles and David Koch, had poured more than a hundred million dollars into a war against Obama. She went on to research and document how the Kochs and other rich right-wing donaors were providing vast quantities of “dark money” (political spending that, by law, had become untraceable) to groups and candidates whose missions, if successful, would hobble unions, limit voting, deregulate corporations, shift taxes to the less well-off and even deny climate change. Page xvii Democracy in Chains.

Who are 'they'? The financial elite such as big donors, Wall Street bondholders, and advocates of the neoliberal way such as economists, lawyers and bankers including the Fed.

”Advocates of the neoliberal way now occupy positions of considerable influence in education (the universities and many “think tanks”), in the media, in corporate boardrooms and financial institutions, in key state institutions (treasury departments, central banks), and also in those international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization that regulate global finance and trade.” A Brief History of Neoliberalism by David Harvey

[bull....]

was that a crash on the open for us futures down 500pts first 2mins

[peat]

was that a crash on the open for us futures down 500pts first 2mins

a 3 min flash crash
then the 50% retracement.

[blackcap]

a 3 min flash crash
then the 50% retracement.

Wow... still down 200 though. Interesting times.

[Peitro]

Yikes that's a massive swing for after hours trading, was up 100 last time I looked, going to be an interesting night

[whatsup]

Looks like the bad news is not finished, cash in pockets time again !

[bull....]

Looks like the bad news is not finished, cash in pockets time again !

been 80% cash for a while now , not expecting any other way for the fore seeable future

[Filthy]

been 80% cash for a while now

lol that's been obvious for some time now (based on your enthusiastic posts every time the markets sneeze!)

[bull....]

lol that's been obvious for some time now (based on your enthusiastic posts every time the markets sneeze!)

i do like spk , mcy ift still

[westerly]

Good read .....no doubt has an influence on where markets go

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/meet-the-economist-behind-the-one-percents-stealth-takeover-of-america

A few Buchanan disciples in NZ I reckon.

westerly

[bull....]

carnage for sure , cash is king

[bull....]

i mentioned 2820 , could get ugly if not hold

[winner69]

Could well happen

Henry Blodget (@hblodget)
7/12/18, 6:28 AM
~1000 on the S&P is a 60%+ market drop from here. Sounds nuts, but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising. twitter.com/hussmanjp/stat…

[Raz]

Could well happen

Henry Blodget (@hblodget)
7/12/18, 6:28 AM
~1000 on the S&P is a 60%+ market drop from here. Sounds nuts, but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising. twitter.com/hussmanjp/stat…

In the US currently, this was expected as of yesterday morning given some legal analysis of Trump stuff give Flynn...

[see weed]

carnage for sure , cash is king
Looks like it hit the bottom 2hours ago and on the rise again:). The question, is it a dead cat bounce or a live cat drop?

[bull....]

Looks like it hit the bottom 2hours ago and on the rise again:).

yea the 2620 level worked good almost 50 handles , wouldnt get to excited about going up any thing meaningful. these patterns normally break to the downside with a big move.

if it happens a test of the years lows will happen

[winner69]

A few Buchanan disciples in NZ I reckon.

westerly

The Buchanan who Jacinda keeps in touch with?

[dobby41]

The Buchanan who Jacinda keeps in touch with?

Tricky since he's been dead for nearly 6 years.

[winner69]

Tricky since he's been dead for nearly 6 years.

That’s sad ...just shows you how little I know about this Buchanan guy westerly refers to.

[bull....]

nice bounce from the lows 70 pts sp500

[winner69]

US Yield doesn’t look that inverted to me

[BlackPeter]

US Yield doesn’t look that inverted to me

The inversion is when short term interest rates (in this case 2 years) are higher than long term interest rates (in this case 5 years) ... but I am sure you knew that, didn't you?

[couta1]

The inversion is when short term interest rates (in this case 2 years) are higher than long term interest rates (in this case 5 years) ... but I am sure you knew that, didn't you? The 10/2 curve is the real one to worry about not the 5/2.

[BlackPeter]

The 10/2 curve is the real one to worry about not the 5/2.

Sure, the 10/2 is more often cited ... but the 5/2 is already inverted - this is the reason I used this one as example.

Anyway - nothing is certain .. and the current downturn is anyway too early given the typical timelag to the interest rate inversion (6 to 18 months). Must be Trumpmade. One can't really rely on anything ...

[winner69]

The inversion is when short term interest rates (in this case 2 years) are higher than long term interest rates (in this case 5 years) ... but I am sure you knew that, didn't you?

BP

Maybe what I was trying to say yesterday is best said by guru aswathdamodaran

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2018/12/is-there-signal-in-noise-yield-curves.html

[BlackPeter]

BP

Maybe what I was trying to say yesterday is best said by guru aswathdamodaran

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2018/12/is-there-signal-in-noise-yield-curves.html

Good article, even if he needs much more words than you. And yes - he may or may not be right ;);

[arc]

The current role played by machines, (algo-trading) is excessive in the American market. We all understand that they react quicker than humans, but just like self drive cars there are some seriously dangerous flaws in the logic that blinds them to unusual circumstances. Flash crash is a warmup for flash annihilation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/05/sell-offs-could-be-down-to-machines-that-control-80percent-of-us-stocks-fund-manager-says.html?recirc=taboolainternal

[arc]

The global stage is changing faster than the self centred restricted thinking mode displayed by other waning global players.

https://www.cnbc.com/hong-kong-macau-and-zhuhai-bridge-shapes-chinas-own-silicon-valley/

[winner69]

If the S&P500 falls 60% to 1000 as some commentators reckon what will happen on the NZX ....suppose be sad stories here as well.

They say that 1000 sounds nuts but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising.

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2018-contrarians-got-apos-saying-050100513.html

Contrarians Made the Right Market Calls in 2018. Here's What They're Saying Now

[moka]

The global stage is changing faster than the self centred restricted thinking mode displayed by other waning global players.

https://www.cnbc.com/hong-kong-macau-and-zhuhai-bridge-shapes-chinas-own-silicon-valley/

https://theintercept.com/2017/07/22/donald-trump-and-the-coming-fall-of-american-empire/
Donald Trump and the Coming Fall of American Empire

Alfred McCoy: What I think right now is that, through some kind of malign design, Donald Trump has divined, has figured out what are the essential pillars of U.S. global power that have sustained Washington’s hegemony for the past 70 years and he seems to be setting out to demolish each one of those pillars one by one. He’s weakened the NATO alliance; he’s weakened our alliances with Asian allies along the Pacific littoral. He’s proposing to cut back on the scientific research which has given the United States — its military industrial complex — a cutting edge, a leading edge in critical new weapons systems since the early years of the Cold War. And he’s withdrawing the United States, almost willfully, from its international leadership, most spectacularly with the Paris Climate Accord but also very importantly with the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

And he seems to be setting out to systematically demolish U.S. global hegemony. Our share of the global economy has declined substantially. We’re about to be eclipsed by 2030, by China, and become the world’s number two economic power. It’s a more complex world, so the United States can no longer dictate to the world, or at least much of the world, like we could back in the 1950s.

[bull....]

friday session eeded right back at the lows of the range , not unexpected as mentioned to seeweed to not get excited about the upside . anyway this week watching those supports if they dont hold we will probably test the years lows before xmas. oh no no santa this year

heres a good graph of bull/bear markets

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

i think the average lenght of a bear market in a non recession is just over a yr .. guessing i am

[winner69]

friday session eeded right back at the lows of the range , not unexpected as mentioned to seeweed to not get excited about the upside . anyway this week watching those supports if they dont hold we will probably test the years lows before xmas. oh no no santa this year

heres a good graph of bull/bear markets

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/ContentFileLoader.aspx?ContentGUID=4ecfa978-d0bb-4924-92c8-628ff9bfe12d

i think the average lenght of a bear market in a non recession is just over a yr .. guessing i am

Short but sharp though ....big drops in short time eh

Tough 45% and 50% drops last 2 times

Maybe that guy talking 60% isn’t guessing

[Beagle]

Drop that size last time was as the result of the GFC, arguably the biggest financial event of a generation. The economic fundamentals are not suggesting another GFC.
Yes being overweight cash is probably a good idea as is looking at skewing one's portfolio towards defensive stocks in healthcare, REIT's, utilities and consumer staples but going to all cash seems a little extreme, (which appears to be the course of action some are implying is wise).

[bull....]

more to what i was saying about no santa rally

As bad luck would have it, Friday's stumble saw Wall Street's benchmark index the S&P500 form a death cross, joining the small-cap Russell 2000 index in the same unhappy boat.
For the statistically minded, according to Reuters death crosses have formed on the S&P500 only 12 times since the Great Depression back in the late 1920s.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-09/markets-gloom-deepens-as-wall-st-has-worst-week-in-nine-months/10596886?section=business

so that means dec/jan will be bad bad bad ...if you belioeve statistics

[bull....]

Drop that size last time was as the result of the GFC, arguably the biggest financial event of a generation. The economic fundamentals are not suggesting another GFC.
Yes being overweight cash is probably a good idea as is looking at skewing one's portfolio towards defensive stocks in healthcare, REIT's, utilities and consumer staples but going to all cash seems a little extreme, (which appears to be the course of action some are implying is wise).

if we enter a bear market even those sectors you mention go down , just less than other ones

[Beagle]

The last two death crosses in 2016 were followed by very short correction and then a very substantial rally. There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

What percentage cash have you got in your portfolio Bull ?

[bull....]

The last two death crosses in 2016 were followed by very short correction and then a very substantial rally. There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

What percentage cash have you got in your portfolio Bull ?

80% cash , you need to remember im a trader so i time stuff and follow chart trends and macro trends. the trend is down at the moment so i remain bearish until something changes.
long term investors meaning those who invest for 10yrs or more probably dont care about death crosses etc or bear markets and will most likely just average in as we keep declining.

[Beagle]

For what its worth I have 45% cash, (might go to 50% cash over the holidays) and the other 55% is heavily skewed towards defensive shares in the categories mentioned in post #5072. My thinking is its going to be extremely difficult for Trump to get any forward momentum from the Chinese on their theft of intellectual property impasse as this sort of behaviour is deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche as being normal. Copyright in Chinese means we have the right to copy what you have done lol
Good on Trump for having a go to resolve this, I suppose, but the Americans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they think they can change habitual behaviour that's been going on since Adam was a boy. This is why my portfolio is defensive going into 2019.

[Filthy]

There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

Yes, a lot of good NZX companies are now well off their highs over the last few months.
Ignoring the likes of SPK, IFT, MFT etc most of the index is probably down about 20% already.... a healthy correction?
Assuming low interest rates in NZ remain to 2020 and beyond, it looks a little overcooked.
I really cant see another 60% drop from here - macro is uncertain, but geez its not that bad is it?
Might see interest rates in the US start heading back down again if growth slows.... too quick too soon?

10194

[bull....]

For what its worth I have 45% cash, (might go to 50% cash over the holidays) and the other 55% is heavily skewed towards defensive shares in the categories mentioned in post #5072. My thinking is its going to be extremely difficult for Trump to get any forward momentum from the Chinese on their theft of intellectual property impasse as this sort of behaviour is deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche as being normal. Copyright in Chinese means we have the right to copy what you have done lol
Good on Trump for having a go to resolve this, I suppose, but the Americans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they think they can change habitual behaviour that's been going on since Adam was a boy. This is why my portfolio is defensive going into 2019.

yes im defensive thinking ablout next yr too ... at the moment could change at any time lol but my thinking is nz will slow down , i find it un nerving nz share market isnt keeping pace to the downside with overseas markets makes me think the day of reckoning will come badly the longer it takes. why

trade wars will affect china make them slow down
australia property market slowdown is getting bad

both of these economies are nz biggest trade partners

[winner69]

Yes, a lot of good NZX companies are now well off their highs over the last few months.
Ignoring the likes of SPK, IFT, MFT etc most of the index is probably down about 20% already.... a healthy correction?
Assuming low interest rates in NZ remain to 2020 and beyond, it looks a little overcooked.
I really cant see another 60% drop from here - macro is uncertain, but geez its not that bad is it?
Might see interest rates in the US start heading back down again if growth slows.... too quick too soon?

10194

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh

[Beagle]

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh

You could change your name to Bear :)
Filthy - No I don't subscribe to a massive selloff from here but things do look pretty challenging going into 2019 which is why I have positioned my portfolio defensivly.

[bull....]

us futures have dropped below the support of 2620 - 30

[Peitro]

On the cusp, hopefully Santa gets stuck halfway down the chimney.

US inflation data out this week be crucial

[NeverQuestion]

We are 9 days away from the Fed rate decision. Will they or wont they?

I'm picking they will raise. Most the economists I follow are talking about being almost at the upper bounds of where the Fed wants to be and a rate hike is warranted. December is also a month people are too distracted by xmas and new years to care.

Interesting times ahead!! Stocking up on Yen!

[moka]

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh
I see it like musical chairs, no one wants to be the last man standing, so the big players are getting out and that takes months. The market won’t go up unless the big players are buying. I see us heading for another GFC, the big US banks are bigger than they were in 2007, few of the reforms required to stop another GFC happening have been put in place, there is risky lending and behaviour. There is more debt now than in 2007. It is ten years on from GFC. A crisis happens about every ten years - 1987 crash and in 1998 Long-Term Capital Management Hedge Fund Crisis.
To save the U.S. banking system, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough convinced 15 banks to bail out LTCM. They spent $3.5 billion in return for a 90 percent ownership of the fund.
That was the precedent for the Fed's bailout role during the 2008 financial crisis. Once financial firms realized that the Fed would bail them out, they became more willing to take risks.
https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240
(https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240)
Who knows what will trigger the crisis, or when it will happen but pressure is building.

[bull....]

broke support heading for test now of feb lows

also important china attacks apple in trade war

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/china-court-grants-qualcomm-injunction-against-apple.html

brexit vote cancelled means more uncertainty

[winner69]

Getting like this on NZX ....the long slide down that started earlier in the year continues

Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders)
11/12/18, 6:40 AM
As of about an hour ago, more than 50% of the S&P’s 500 stocks were down more than 20% from their 52w highs @bespokeinvest

[BlackPeter]

broke support heading for test now of feb lows

also important china attacks apple in trade war

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/china-court-grants-qualcomm-injunction-against-apple.html

brexit vote cancelled means more uncertainty

... and the sun did rise today and it will rise tomorrow :); NASDAQ nearly one percent up - all green :t_up:;

Cheer up a bit - hey, it is nearly Christmas.

[bull....]

Getting like this on NZX ....the long slide down that started earlier in the year continues

Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders)
11/12/18, 6:40 AM
As of about an hour ago, more than 50% of the S&P’s 500 stocks were down more than 20% from their 52w highs @bespokeinvest

yep nzx performance is being propped up by about half dozen companies. have we got a plunge protection team in nz?

[workingdad]

... and the sun did rise today and it will rise tomorrow :); NASDAQ nearly one percent up - all green :t_up:;

Cheer up a bit - hey, it is nearly Christmas.

The sun came up during the GFC too.... another trend similarity and potential warning sign to investors???

[winner69]

yep nzx performance is being propped up by about half dozen companies. have we got a plunge protection team in nz?

Just as well we have Spark eh

[couta1]

The sun came up during the GFC too.... another trend similarity and potential warning sign to investors???HaHa nice one, a strong indicator all the doom and gloom merchants on here didn't pick up on.

[workingdad]

HaHa nice one, a strong indicator all the doom and gloom merchants on here didn't pick up on.

Although the comment was a bit of a laugh mate my thoughts are the risk to the downside has been gathering pace and I have been happily sitting it out dreaming about the next ski season :)

[Beagle]

The sun came up during the GFC too.... another trend similarity and potential warning sign to investors???

Some long dark winter nights during the last GFC though and sometimes when the sun did eventually come up the fog was so thick you couldn't see far anyway....much like a white-out on the ski slopes.

[couta1]

Well my overall portfolio has just slipped into the red for the first time this year, I won't put the figure it was up earlier but were talking a very large sum wiped off the table.

[oldtech]

Well my overall portfolio has just slipped into the red for the first time this year, I won't put the figure it was up earlier but were talking a very large sum wiped off the table.

You're not the only one couta1, HLG was holding the rest of my portfolio up by itself until yesterday - now all red.

[bull....]

today was a good day as an example of change of sentiment on us markets . opened up 400 pts on dow now down 60 odd sell the rips is the new motto for the foreseeable future

[root]

Testing times indeed, if we break these support lines we may find the "asleep at the wheel index funds" overreact.

10195

[bull....]

Testing times indeed, if we break these support lines we may find the "asleep at the wheel index funds" overreact.

10195

the nice juicy range if broken would emply another 7 - 8% lower as a chart pattern move , still be easliy within the difinition of a correction still

[root]

the nice juicy range if broken would emply another 7 - 8% lower as a chart pattern move , still be easliy within the difinition of a correction still

Yes agreed, and there seems to be a reluctance to push through this level this year, the constant ambient noise of Trade Tarrifs, Brexit and Global slowdown doesn’t seem to be enough of a shock. Hence moving sideways. Correction vs Bear only becomes meaningful in hindsight once an upward trend emerges.

[bull....]

just now another example of the range , i had mentioned 2620 sp500 as a level to watch we got within 2 pts and has now rallied 20 pts since

[couta1]

bull must be sleeping in, Thunderbirds are all go today and we haven't heard from him yet.

[winner69]

bull must be sleeping in, Thunderbirds are all go today and we haven't heard from him yet.

...must be having breakfast chewing the fat with that arrogant prat who hogs discussion over on that other forum

[bull....]

bull must be sleeping in, Thunderbirds are all go today and we haven't heard from him yet.

yes just hopped up cant get up too early everyday. enjoying the ride up , hit support yesterday so was good odds it would carry up today. you will be happy today couta your stocks should go up.

[couta1]

...must be having breakfast chewing the fat with that arrogant prat who hogs discussion over on that other forum Classic winner, yes definitely a one animal forum over the road.

[bull....]

traders sold the rally again in the us. waiting for may vote could tank things

[bull....]

quiet day at the office today , us markets just biding time. still looking weak

[bull....]

asia markets getting a bit of pounding today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/asia-markets-ecb-decision-china-economic-data-japan-tankan-in-focus.html


asx getting hammered due to economy concerns

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/markets-signal-a-rate-cut-now-looks-less-outlandish-in-australia?srnd=premium-asia

even nz get a pounding today.

end of year selling this year? grinch instead of santa

[blackcap]

asia markets getting a bit of pounding today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/asia-markets-ecb-decision-china-economic-data-japan-tankan-in-focus.html


asx getting hammered due to economy concerns

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/markets-signal-a-rate-cut-now-looks-less-outlandish-in-australia?srnd=premium-asia

even nz get a pounding today.

end of year selling this year? grinch instead of santa

And the Dow being called down 190 right now. Could be an interesting few weeks leading up to Christmas.

[BlackPeter]

asia markets getting a bit of pounding today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/14/asia-markets-ecb-decision-china-economic-data-japan-tankan-in-focus.html


asx getting hammered due to economy concerns

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/markets-signal-a-rate-cut-now-looks-less-outlandish-in-australia?srnd=premium-asia

even nz get a pounding today.

end of year selling this year? grinch instead of santa

Not sure we can draw a trendline on that - yet. It is in my view not a Christmas dump, it is Christmas volatility. And given that the reasons for this volatility (an inept but unpredictable white house dweller, ways too high debts all over the place and an island to the West of Europe without clue what they want) are unlikely to go away after Christmas I'd expect it will be a volatile 2019 as well.

Happy jitters ...

[bull....]

bounced of that 2620 level 2x this session dont know if it can last much longer

[root]

Yep, heading for 2580 now, see where it closes.

[bull....]

Yep, heading for 2580 now, see where it closes.

yes think your right. its settling in under that support now barring a surprise rally should head to your levels also hasnt happened for a while but all the sectors are in the red today

[NZSilver]

Sure is ugly, dow down approx 500, not far from breaking below 24000

[bull....]

Sure is ugly, dow down approx 500, not far from breaking below 24000

yes and the sp500 on the verge of a big breakdown

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/12/sp-chart-could-be-forming-another-bearish-pattern.html?&qsearchterm=patti%20domm

the dreaded head and shoulders top

[NZSilver]

Shes going to be anothe black monday, sit on hands... interssting to see china economy is starting to show cracks

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.ft.com/content/480aff2a-f7c4-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

Value stocks show signs of turning a corner in 2019

[bull....]

rbnz is proposing to increase the capital banks in nz must hold

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/16/363914/reserve-banks-20-billion-insurance-policy

must say it still leaves nz very exposed to a gfc still. nz does not have a deposit insurance scheme , the new capital requirements only just make nz banks comparable to international norms.

all in all nz banking system is a big risk to the country well being if something goes wrong with say the property market etc

i know from the gfc that a nz bank was within inches of going bust.

further article intos afr stating banks will force rbnz to back down

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/new-zealand-capital-demand-could-lead-to-major-bank-asset-sales-macquarie-20181216-h1963w

that make nz banking system very at risk when things go south. be watching with interest might have to have my overseas bank acc at a safer institution ready just in case one day a event happens.

[bull....]

big week this week fed meeting thurs morning nz time

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-fed-wont-save-the-stock-market-despite-its-worst-december-start-since-1980-2018-12-15

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/14/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones/index.html

2019 risks

https://thewest.com.au/business/economics/eurozone-20-crisis-likely-no1-global-markets-risk-in-2019-ng-b881050683z

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12176100

Makes for a depressing read but there are sound reasons to be quite cautious going into 2019 so forewarned is forearmed. I am very defensive going into the new year with around 50% cash allocation and mainly defensive holdings in defensive sectors such as in healthcare, OCA, REIT's ARG, consumer staples ZEL, utilities MEL and GNE and only modest stakes in transports AIR, and financials HGH.

The vast majority of my stocks held are aimed at returning a strong sustainable and in some cases growing yield. I expect 2019 to be another tough year on the NZX.

[couta1]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12176100

Makes for a depressing read but there are sound reasons to be quite cautious going into 2019 so forewarned is forearmed. I am very defensive going into the new year with around 50% cash allocation and mainly defensive holdings in defensive sectors such as in healthcare, OCA, REIT's ARG, consumer staples ZEL, utilities MEL and GNE and only modest stakes in transports AIR, and financials HGH.

The vast majority of my stocks held are aimed at returning a strong sustainable and in some cases growing yield. I expect 2019 to be another tough year on the NZX. 2019 might be tough but 2020 will be the real cruncher IMO.

[stoploss]

rbnz is proposing to increase the capital banks in nz must hold

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/12/16/363914/reserve-banks-20-billion-insurance-policy

must say it still leaves nz very exposed to a gfc still. nz does not have a deposit insurance scheme , the new capital requirements only just make nz banks comparable to international norms.

all in all nz banking system is a big risk to the country well being if something goes wrong with say the property market etc

i know from the gfc that a nz bank was within inches of going bust.

further article intos afr stating banks will force rbnz to back down

https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/new-zealand-capital-demand-could-lead-to-major-bank-asset-sales-macquarie-20181216-h1963w

that make nz banking system very at risk when things go south. be watching with interest might have to have my overseas bank acc at a safer institution ready just in case one day a event happens.

When you say this will make NZ comparable to "international norms"
It appears from this article we will be better than that ?

https://croakingcassandra.com/2018/12/15/

[bull....]

When you say this will make NZ comparable to "international norms"
It appears from this article we will be better than that ?

https://croakingcassandra.com/2018/12/15/

nz is one of the only western economies without a deposit insurance scheme , so even with the increased capital doesnt mean you wont still lose all your money in deposits. therefore i view it as still inferior to some overseas banking.
capital can disappear very fast from banks balance sheets in an big event. imagine if they do nothing how exposed you are currently to losing all your money.

[winner69]

2019 might be tough but 2020 will be the real cruncher IMO.

Yes, our friend Orr has seen to that irrespective of what happens globally u

[blobbles]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109402437/worlds-financial-structure-unstable-weak-links-in-bank-system-becoming-exposed

Bit scary. 4.4 x world GDP in derivatives.

Makes one want to invest in gold... probably not a bad thing right now?

[bull....]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109402437/worlds-financial-structure-unstable-weak-links-in-bank-system-becoming-exposed

Bit scary. 4.4 x world GDP in derivatives.

Makes one want to invest in gold... probably not a bad thing right now?

its the dirivatives that cause nz banks to fail not the property

[bull....]

Yep, heading for 2580 now, see where it closes.

we hit the target root , trump must be panicking narvarro just tanked the market. the fed stuffed if they raise treump will spill the cot toys if they dont it looks like the us economy in bad shape and they caved to trump

feb lows to be tested now also worth noting is whole market down again it used to be defensives held up but not the last few sessions. i consider this a bad omen as now people are selling everything

[bull....]

so the break of the range from 2820 - 2620 implies a 200pt down move to 2420 or another 7 - 8% lower for the pattern to complete probably negated if rises above 2820. im picking more a continuation move rather than a plunge

[carrom74]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/trump-says-it-is-incredible-that-the-fed-is-considering-hiking-interest-rates-again.html

This guy has gone mad and talking all of us down

[bull....]

looks like we might test the feb lows today

[bull....]

just hit new low for the year , bounce tomorrow? or crash more ? must say utilities and real estate got crushed playing catch up now

just covered some my apple shorts see what happens might go quiet now till fed?

[Aaron]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/17/trump-says-it-is-incredible-that-the-fed-is-considering-hiking-interest-rates-again.html

This guy has gone mad and talking all of us down

Clicking the link I see Jefferey Gundlach, Jim Cramer & Ron Paul are also talking us down. Seems too early for a panic but if you get to margin calls you get forced selling. Passive investors in index funds might get active if the fund value goes down instead of up. People nearing retirement might want to redeem some funds.

Kiwisavers might start switching to conservative options as well, increasing selling pressure. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/109415285/kiwisaver-collapsing-faster-than-the-black-caps-in-the-90s

We might have an economic slowdown or even recession which will hit earnings and valuations.

Then again the US Federal Reserve might announce negative interest rates tomorrow and then its off to the races again.

[Beagle]

just hit new low for the year , bounce tomorrow? or crash more ? must say utilities and real estate got crushed playing catch up now

just covered some my apple shorts see what happens might go quiet now till fed?

I think the Bear is here to stay for quite some time and has real teeth and claws.

[root]

Nice to see the US markets finally make up their minds. Lots of emails going out from fund managers today explaining how well they are placed to manage this sort of thing. Opportunities ahead for sure....but not yet.

[moka]

The experts speaking - Recent market 'jolt' will be first of many as easy money era ends, says BIS.
Recent sharp selloffs across global financial markets are probably the first of many, as investors adjust to a world of tighter monetary conditions and the threat of economic downturn, the Bank of International Settlements said on Sunday.
The BIS is an umbrella group for the world’s central banks and its reports are seen as an indicator of the thinking that goes on behind the closed doors of its quarterly meetings.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-report-markets/recent-market-jolt-will-be-first-of-many-as-easy-money-era-ends-says-bis-idUSKBN1OF0QE
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-report-markets/recent-market-jolt-will-be-first-of-many-as-easy-money-era-ends-says-bis-idUSKBN1OF0QE)
Yet more bumps on the path to normal - https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1812a.htm

[Joshuatree]

From John Ryders Global Newsletter(its free)
"Balancing it up, we believe that there could be another significant rally in equities (the “last hurrah”)... before we see a day of reckoning for investors. We intend using the 50-day moving average as an entry for further trading investments (but they will be short-term). Such a rally could also be a good opportunity for investors to quit the market."

[moka]

The famous Dornbusch's Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.

Lots of risks around including slowing growth in emerging markets and a possible meltdown like 2008 where a bailout is needed.
Any emerging market country with serious imbalances is going to get hit as the Fed tightens. That is what happened in 1998. This looks very similar. The emerging market nexus was not big enough to take down the global economy in 1998. Today, it makes up over 50 per cent of world output, and 80 per cent of incremental growth. If Turkey is a sign of stress to come, batten down the hatches.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/106273820/turkey-was-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-and-other-countries-may-be-at-risk?rm=a

[bull....]

the fed will drain 600 billion from the system next year , thats why a bear has arrived. asset prices need to adjust

[skid]

The famous Dornbusch's Law of financial crises is that they take longer to hit than you think, but then unfold much faster than you ever thought possible. So you have a chance to be wrong twice.

Lots of risks around including slowing growth in emerging markets and a possible meltdown like 2008 where a bailout is needed.
Any emerging market country with serious imbalances is going to get hit as the Fed tightens. That is what happened in 1998. This looks very similar. The emerging market nexus was not big enough to take down the global economy in 1998. Today, it makes up over 50 per cent of world output, and 80 per cent of incremental growth. If Turkey is a sign of stress to come, batten down the hatches.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/106273820/turkey-was-an-accident-waiting-to-happen-and-other-countries-may-be-at-risk?rm=a

They have also eliminated some of the regulations designed to protect after the last meltdown....This US administration may have alot to answer for

[Valuegrowth]

Stocks are following crude oil?

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-falls-us-crude-dips-below-50-on-oversupply-fears-idUKKBN1OG01L

[bull....]

rally on today as we suspected , tomorrow the day of reckoning

another prominent bear

Alan Greenspan: Investors should prepare for the worst
He added that markets could still go up further — but warned investors that the correction would be painful: "At the end of that run, run for cover."

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/18/business/alan-greenspan-stock-market-party-over/index.html

[bull....]

anyway tomorrow i believe if they dont raise it will be worse than if they do

[bull....]

as predicted big pharma is now moving into pot marijuana industry joining big drinks companies. hope nz gets a move on will miss the boat

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/tilray-goes-global-with-novartis-marijuana-sales-partnership

[BlackPeter]

as predicted big pharma is now moving into pot marijuana industry joining big drinks companies. hope nz gets a move on will miss the boat

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/tilray-goes-global-with-novartis-marijuana-sales-partnership

Hardly a big money maker as soon as its legal and the hype faded away. Just a boring agricultural product any druggie without qualifications can grow utilising just whats left of their brain. No moat, no IP but yeah - some people work really hard to create some hype.

[mfd]

Hardly a big money maker as soon as its legal and the hype faded away. Just a boring agricultural product any druggie without qualifications can grow utilising just whats left of their brain. No moat, no IP but yeah - some people work really hard to create some hype.

Just like that insignificant alcohol industry, right? You don't even need half a brain to mix yeast with sugar, but there's still plenty of money to be made selling the stuff, and plenty of tax to be taken. That said, I'm not in a hurry to invest.

[BlackPeter]

Just like that insignificant alcohol industry, right? You don't even need half a brain to mix yeast with sugar, but there's still plenty of money to be made selling the stuff, and plenty of tax to be taken. That said, I'm not in a hurry to invest.

Nobody makes serious money with selling plain vanilla alcohol ... the money (well, some ... doesn't always work out) is in producing and selling premium wines, premium beer and high quality spirits.

Not sure I envisage the development of a "premium" weed industry ... but than - who knows? Give it another handful of generations and our grand grand children might sit with glassed over eyes in smoke filled weed palaces and enjoy their premium grass ... but than, who would work for them to allow them to afford the luxury?

Not sure this passes my test of a good investment - and certainly not now.

[dobby41]

... but than, who would work for them to allow them to afford the luxury?

Robots.... :t_up:

[mfd]

Nobody makes serious money with selling plain vanilla alcohol ... the money (well, some ... doesn't always work out) is in producing and selling premium wines, premium beer and high quality spirits.

Not sure I envisage the development of a "premium" weed industry ... but than - who knows? Give it another handful of generations and our grand grand children might sit with glassed over eyes in smoke filled weed palaces and enjoy their premium grass ... but than, who would work for them to allow them to afford the luxury?

Not sure this passes my test of a good investment - and certainly not now.

I haven't smoked much for a decade or so, so my finger is perhaps only marginally more on the pulse than yours. However, I do know quite a few people with good jobs, who smoke occasionally, and would most likely pay more for premium products in the same way they currently pay for premium alcohol. Time will tell.

[bull....]

Hardly a big money maker as soon as its legal and the hype faded away. Just a boring agricultural product any druggie without qualifications can grow utilising just whats left of their brain. No moat, no IP but yeah - some people work really hard to create some hype.

govt needs to replace the declining tax take in the future from petrol , cigs unless of course you want to pay more tax.
you forget to mention the health benefits to people from consuming weed and the premium money to be made from thses premium products.
as for ag i see the per hectare profit from hemp is far surperior to lettuces so i imagine those current half brained weed smoking growers will do quite well growing it for a legal living.

[BlackPeter]

govt needs to replace the declining tax take in the future from petrol , cigs unless of course you want to pay more tax.
you forget to mention the health benefits to people from consuming weed and the premium money to be made from thses premium products.
as for ag i see the per hectare profit from hemp is far surperior to lettuces so i imagine those current half brained weed smoking growers will do quite well growing it for a legal living.

OK, so we established it is easy to grow and the margins are a dream - given that so far the risks (of prosecution) are high. Remove this risk - wouldn't you expect competition to move into such a lucrative market like flies smelling a rotten corpse? Now - lets think about it - what does lots of competition do to an industry where the only moat is that you need to own (or lease or just use) a small patch of land (or enough pots)? Just lets consider for a moment what might happen to the margins.

But maybe one needs to consume some of the discussed product to better understand the business case :D;

[bull....]

OK, so we established it is easy to grow and the margins are a dream - given that so far the risks (of prosecution) are high. Remove this risk - wouldn't you expect competition to move into such a lucrative market like flies smelling a rotten corpse? Now - lets think about it - what does lots of competition do to an industry where the only moat is that you need to own (or lease or just use) a small patch of land (or enough pots)? Just lets consider for a moment what might happen to the margins.

But maybe one needs to consume some of the discussed product to better understand the business case :D;

actually if you have a govt controlled market, licences are applied for to grow the stuff the fees go to the govt , the current weed smokers growers i would imagine should be allowed to work for the owners of the land being well compensated to work there magic.

by the way i get back pain regulary affects my sleep sometimes so i would like the option to legally buy weed for a better sleep without the risk of being turned into a criminal. pills have such bad side affects dont they

anyway serious money to go round for lots of people and the govt , less for crims

[BlackPeter]

by the way i get back pain regulary affects my sleep sometimes so i would like the option to legally buy weed for a better sleep without the risk of being turned into a criminal. pills have such bad side affects dont they

Off topic - but did you consider visiting a good physio, getting somebody to assess your seating position (in front of the screen) and start regular exercise? Did miracles for me ...

[Peitro]

:eek::eek:

[couta1]

Now we've got that Fed nonsense out of the way we can get back to some more normal volatility. Lol

[winner69]

Now we've got that Fed nonsense out of the way we can get back to some more normal volatility. Lol

Sure is nonsense eh couts

Hyped up by the media way beyond what it really means and punters get so excited about every word that’s said.

Good sign the money men think the US economy is doing well ...our Mr Orr should be doing the same.

[bull....]

raised as market expected , im glad still shows confidence going forward

[bull....]

market having a tantrum now it didnt get a uber dovish statement for next yr lol

[winner69]

market having a tantrum now it didnt get a uber dovish statement for next yr lol

S&p500 down to 2500 today?

Maybe 1200 is where it’s headed after Christmas

[bull....]

S&p500 down to 2500 today?

Maybe 1200 is where it’s headed after Christmas

that pattern i mentioned 2820 - 2620 implies a move to 2420 sp500

[Peitro]

Normal volatility has officially resumed.

2420 is not far off, can see it dropping past this tbh

[bull....]

my last post for the year. if the us markets close near where they are now they will have printed a reversal bar on a yearly chart which is bearish heading into 2019. keep an eye on that yearly bar at the end of the yr. good luck

[Bobdn]

my last post for the year. if the us markets close near where they are now they will have printed a reversal bar on a yearly chart which is bearish heading into 2019. keep an eye on that yearly bar at the end of the yr. good luck


Have a great Christmas!

[couta1]

Will be a short black Monday trading day before things shut down for a few days and the panickers will be forced to chillax followed by a few more days panicking and then some more enforced chillaxing. A more normal volatility should resume transmission after that.

[Joshuatree]

And thats why so many of tomorrows children are born August/September. All that build up, ham fork play, delicious desserts, popping and fizzing,falling and laughing and horizontal folk dancing in a carnalval atmosphere. Maximas merrimas.

[huxley]

Question. Is anyone on here shorting any indices as means to hedge their long positions? For example buying a CFD which shorts the NZX50 while maintaining your NZX positions etc.

[Valuegrowth]

Stocks and oil prices dropped further on Christmas Eve. Many thought oil prices will go up owing to Iran oil embargo. It went other way around. Instead of spiking, oil prices have slumped. It is a huge tax cut for the world. Consumers got early Christmas gift and more spending power.

https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/24/oil-eases-on-oversupply-concerns-ahead-of-holiday

https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-emerging-stocks-falter-most-currencies-gain-against-weak-dollar-idUSL8N1YT0TJ (https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-emerging-stocks-falter-most-currencies-gain-against-weak-dollar-idUSL8N1YT0TJ)

10219​

[arc]

Have a good christmas folks,
its looking like next year may be more of the same... Big teeth and Sharp claws

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/api/amp/mishtalk/economics/s-p-500-slips-into-bear-territory-on-worst-christmas-eve-trading-ever-XixQgQfzJkqkvGPu6xFIRA/

[arc]

The majority trend.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brettsteenbarger/2018/12/24/could-the-stock-market-crash-perspectives-from-market-history/amp/

[value_investor]

Strap yourselves in for a volatile 2019! If you're a net buyer of stocks and in it for a long term then this will be a good time to get in the market, especially if you're flush with cash.

If you're going to retire in the next year to 18 months or need to take money out then it might be a bad time to be in the market.

[couta1]

Strap yourselves in for a volatile 2019! If you're a net buyer of stocks and in it for a long term then this will be a good time to get in the market, especially if you're flush with cash.

If you're going to retire in the next year to 18 months or need to take money out then it might be a bad time to be in the market. Good companies just keep trucking along regardless of market sentiment, growth companies like A2 will keep on growing, high dividend utilities and the like will keep paying good dividends so Ka Sera Sera. PS-If your going to retire in 18 months and really need the dosh you shouldn't be in the sharemarket in any meaningful way anyway.

[blobbles]

There seems to be a whole bunch of self soothing comments on here. I think its pretty clear to most that markets are in correction territory and we can expect a bear market over the next year or longer. A falling tide lowers all boats, so if you are still in, don't just be prepared for volatility, be prepared to lose money over the next year or two. Only the really, really good can make money in bear markets...

[winner69]

everyone is a trend follower on the way up ........and a mean reversion person on the way down

[Snow Leopard]

everyone is a trend follower on the way up ........and a mean reversion person on the way down

except me: I am a generous reversion panther.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/26/asian-markets-the-nikkei-the-fed-wall-street-currencies-in-focus.html

[Joshuatree]

DOW been up 980 points, currently 930 odd , will we have the end of day sell off, i hope not , lets see how strong the conviction is today. Oil up 9% odd too.

[Joshuatree]

Largest one day gain ever on the DOW over 1000 points up ,thats 5%!!!
Nasdaq 5.84% up
S &P 500 5% up

Trump leaving the country anything to do with it:)

[Beagle]

I won't be surprised if the N.Z. market is not euphoric about that after all we were closed and couldn't react to the 650 point fall on Christmas eve U.S. time so a net gain of about 400 points on the DOW. Despite this one day rebound this is probably still the worst December on the U.S. markets since the great depression of 1929 !

[Balance]

I won't be surprised if the N.Z. market is not euphoric about that after all we were closed and couldn't react to the 650 point fall on Christmas eve U.S. time so a net gain of about 400 points on the DOW. Despite this one day rebound this is probably still the worst December on the U.S. markets since the great depression of 1929 !

Thank goodness for that!

[Mickey]

Still looks like a correction but I guess time will tell.

[Blue Skies]

As every good salesman knows, you try and advance your position as far as you can, before actually sitting down at the negotiation table.
I'm hoping a lot of the rhetoric from Trump (e.g. "I'm a tariff man") which is contributing to the instability in the markets is just brinksmanship, & that since his re-election in 2020 more than anything depends on good economic numbers, we will see deals being made with China in the new year & a winding back of the inflammatory stuff which is making the markets so twitchy.

[Balance]

Still looks like a correction but I guess time will tell.

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

[Beagle]

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

You could even say the dead cat meowed :)

[Blue Skies]

One big gigantic dead cat bounce, you reckon?

Those Christmas retail sales numbers from Amazon are record breaking, & from other retailers best numbers since 2012. That's compelling stuff. Think Mr Market might have been bit over pessimistic!

[Ggcc]

The whole market is up so far and some shares have shot up quickly..... Remember there is always tomorrow to buy shares

[Mickey]

Those Christmas retail sales numbers from Amazon are record breaking, & from other retailers best numbers since 2012. That's compelling stuff. Think Mr Market might have been bit over pessimistic!
Agree. I think the trade war rhetoric, Trumps ever-changing leadership team, interest rates increasing and media pessimism created a perfect wave of fear. Unemployment in the US still going down and economic growth still looking fairly good. The sharpness / volatility we've seen in the markets over the past few weeks is more symptomatic of correctional behavior fueled by negative sentiment and a growing wall of fear rather than the slow bear characteristics. Not saying that it still can't happen but I feel that if we keep experiencing seesaw volatility in the market in the coming weeks then perhaps we are not in a true bear market.

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/26/us-futures-following-christmas-eve-plunge.html
No shortage of experts opining on where to from here with the US markets. Couple of things to bear in mind in the very short term in my opinion.
1. Many people don't realise that the tax year ends on 31 December in the US
2. This is apparently the first year in about a decade that one can consider tax loss selling as a generally quite widespread viable strategy.

Possibly a good risk management strategy might be to wait till very early January to go bargain hunting ?

[moka]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-26/why-stocks-are-soaring-massive-64-billion-buy-order
Zero Hedge says stocks soared because of a giant end-of-quarter rebalancing out of bonds and into stocks by pension funds, due to a jarring divergence between equity and bond performances both in Q4 and December.
The stocks in the bank's pro forma pension asset blend had suffered a 14% loss this quarter, including about an 8.5% drop in December. Contrast this with a roughly +1.6% quarterly total return for the domestic aggregate bond index.

[skid]

As every good salesman knows, you try and advance your position as far as you can, before actually sitting down at the negotiation table.
I'm hoping a lot of the rhetoric from Trump (e.g. "I'm a tariff man") which is contributing to the instability in the markets is just brinksmanship, & that since his re-election in 2020 more than anything depends on good economic numbers, we will see deals being made with China in the new year & a winding back of the inflammatory stuff which is making the markets so twitchy.

trouble with Trump is that he operates on ego rather than for america in general

[skid]

I won't be surprised if the N.Z. market is not euphoric about that after all we were closed and couldn't react to the 650 point fall on Christmas eve U.S. time so a net gain of about 400 points on the DOW. Despite this one day rebound this is probably still the worst December on the U.S. markets since the great depression of 1929 !

at time of reading it is looking like we are back where we started..maybe a small net loss...crazy times....seriously ..what were the odds of a further bounce after yesterday...It almost had to correct a little at least-----Some say one more rally ...and then the big one,down---will be interesting to watch..9not sure if that was ''wave theory'' or what)

[kiora]

Makes sense.Returns now driven by statistics & machines. Da !Who dares fight the thread trend?

[Joshuatree]

Some pundits and talking heads picking 2 final big up days to finish 2018. If so i will be glad to have another opp to take more off the table.

[NeverQuestion]

Mostly in Dividend stocks with low debt. Sold/Reduced exposer to everything directly related to consumer or housing Markets. KiwiSaver in 100% Cash, doing nicely all things considered. Holding/Building reserves of Yen and silver.

All hatches battened down. Ready for the Storm! Hoping for the best! 2019 will be an interesting year.

[Ggcc]

You heard it from me first

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/weird-news/blind-mystic-baba-vanga-who-13780296

[Brovendell]

Mostly in Dividend stocks with low debt. Sold/Reduced exposer to everything directly related to consumer or housing Markets. KiwiSaver in 100% Cash, doing nicely all things considered. Holding/Building reserves of Yen and silver.

All hatches battened down. Ready for the Storm! Hoping for the best! 2019 will be an interesting year.

If my farm is one of the best farms in the district or region, should I sell it because the dairy payout is going to be low over the next couple of years?
Or should I ride the storm out and wait for better times which have always come. If I sell it, when I try to buy similar, similar might be too expensive when the good times come back as they always have.
I'm not moving!

[NeverQuestion]

If my farm is one of the best farms in the district or region, should I sell it because the dairy payout is going to be low over the next couple of years?
Or should I ride the storm out and wait for better times which have always come. If I sell it, when I try to buy similar, similar might be too expensive when the good times come back as they always have.
I'm not moving!

I'm just a retail investor so probably not the best to ask. But personally, if I had an asset such as a farm and the Maths still look good even if the milk price drops say 30-40% then I would hold onto it.

I'm actually holding ALF and still expecting growth in this area. Farming is still one of the core industries as far as NZ exports and I don't see that changing.

Housing and Stocks however is a different story. I see bad times ahead.

But like all predictions. They are just that. No one ever truly knows.

I have locked down what little investments I have just in case. I dont have much but maybe it will help me get a house one day. So if there looks to be a down turn I'm going on the defensive just in case.

[stoploss]

If my farm is one of the best farms in the district or region, should I sell it because the dairy payout is going to be low over the next couple of years?
Or should I ride the storm out and wait for better times which have always come. If I sell it, when I try to buy similar, similar might be too expensive when the good times come back as they always have.
I'm not moving!

Not quite comparing Cows with cows here ... A farm is a relatively illiquid investment- apart from the milk :) with substantially more transaction costs and a wide spread involved to buy or sell.
Stocks can be turned around in seconds, minutes, days , months etc , no such thing as similiar an AAPL share is an AAPL share ......only difference is in the price paid / sold .....

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/chinese-oil-trader-unipec-is-said-to-suspend-two-top-officials

[moka]

Growth in risky assets just like we had pre 2008 as investors chase higher yields of up to 15%. Issuance of US Collateralized Loan Obligation (CLO) funds is poised to set a new record and banks are getting ready for another strong year in 2019 as floating-rate loans remain in demand in a rising interest rate environment.
The CLO market, which performed well during 2008’s credit crisis, was boosted by regulators earlier this year when CLOs were made exempt from a Dodd-Frank risk-retention requirement that forced managers to hold some of their funds. The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, including Supreme Court justice Brett Kavanaugh, ruled in February that CLOs backed by broadly syndicated loans do not need to comply with ‘skin in the game’ rules that were intended to align investor and manager interests.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-clo-forecast/u-s-clo-market-poised-for-new-record-and-busy-2019-idUSKCN1NZ04J
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that credit underwriting quality has deteriorated and leverage multiples have increased. Janet Yellen, the Bank of England, US Senator Elizabeth Warren and the International Monetary Fund have also criticised CLO markets.

[moka]

Musical chairs. Just because leveraged loans get packaged into CLOs does not make risk disappear. The credit risk of these loans is simply being transferred to the CLO holders who in turn may buy credit default swaps to further transfer the credit risk to protection sellers. Just like in the children’s game of musical chairs, when the music stops, someone is going to fall on the floor pretty hard. Unlike the children’s game, the effects will be much more painful, longer lasting, and contagious to taxpayer, who have not even been playing musical chairs.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrarodriguezvalladares/2018/11/05/clo-issuance-is-far-surpassing-other-types-of-asset-backed-securities/#7c14eb5b1384

[Brovendell]

My analogy could have been clearer. The point I was trying to make is why would one sell investments because we may have a share-market correction. I own shares in POT, AIA, MFT and RYM among others. These are all high P/E shares. They are also undoubtedly some of the best businesses in NZ. Some posters here say one should sell these shares now as we are going to have a crash next year. We should either go to cash or buy high yield and low P/E shares. If one is a buy and hold investor and has statistically at least another 20 more summers, why do that? The share-market has always recovered and gone higher eventually.
Quality is quality(location,location,location).
As an unabashed Buffett fan, I see that I own a part of some very good businesses (the anchor warp of a POT tug,a toilet in AIA , two spare tyres in MFT and 6 blankets in RYM). These will remain very good businesses through any correction and go on to greater heights.
As I don't need the money for at least 10 years, this is why I am not moving.
Interesting that these 4 companies were my 4 picks for the share competition (with MDZ) giving me a 24th out of 170 place. Putting my mouth where my money is.

[percy]

My analogy could have been clearer. The point I was trying to make is why would one sell investments because we may have a share-market correction. I own shares in POT, AIA, MFT and RYM among others. These are all high P/E shares. They are also undoubtedly some of the best businesses in NZ. Some posters here say one should sell these shares now as we are going to have a crash next year. We should either go to cash or buy high yield and low P/E shares. If one is a buy and hold investor and has statistically at least another 20 more summers, why do that? The share-market has always recovered and gone higher eventually.
Quality is quality(location,location,location).
As an unabashed Buffett fan, I see that I own a part of some very good businesses (the anchor warp of a POT tug,a toilet in AIA , two spare tyres in MFT and 6 blankets in RYM). These will remain very good businesses through any correction and go on to greater heights.
As I don't need the money for at least 10 years, this is why I am not moving.
Interesting that these 4 companies were my 4 picks for the share competition (with MDZ) giving me a 24th out of 170 place. Putting my mouth where my money is.

Great shares,great portfolio.
Your analogy was correct,you are thinking as an owner.The same way Kevin Hickman at RYM, and Bruce Plested at MFT would.
Takes a long time and a great deal of thought to build a portfolio such as yours.
Some very clever sharetraders do well,however I think most long term investors,such as yourself and Warren Buffett, would over time out perform them.
Not needing the money for at least 10 years means you have total financial independence,and bearing in mind most market corrections only last under 2 years,you are clearly"well positioned",and I hope other posters learn from your posts,that long term investing is sensible.

[Jay]

Great shares,great portfolio.
...,and I hope other posters learn from your posts,that long term investing is sensible.

With a rider that those shares are good investments in the first place, which in Brovendell's case they are.

Good post

[percy]

With a rider that those shares are good investments in the first place, which in Brovendell's case they are.

Good post

Agreed, and now you mention rider, Kevin Hickman by hanging onto his RYM shares would be a great deal wealthier than John Ryder who sold his.

[kiora]

"Not needing the money for at least 10 years means you have total financial independence,and bearing in mind most market corrections only last under 2 years,you are clearly"well positioned",and I hope other posters learn from your posts,that long term investing is sensible."
Agreed Percy. That's why its important that an investor always has enough cash/credit to last 2 years ahead without needing to sell unless its an opportune time.

[Biscuit]

.........These are all high P/E shares. They are also undoubtedly some of the best businesses in NZ. Some posters here say one should sell these shares now as we are going to have a crash next year. We should either go to cash or buy high yield and low P/E shares. If one is a buy and hold investor and has statistically at least another 20 more summers, why do that? The share-market has always recovered and gone higher eventually......


These are good companies but they were not always high P/E companies and will not necessarily always be high P/E companies. Even good companies can be over-priced. The markets cycle as do economies. IMHO it is prudent to rebalance the portfolio away from shares, especially high P/E companies and towards cash, bonds etc late in the cycle simply to minimise risk and worry and to maximise the joy of having cash on hand during market routs.

[Brovendell]

This thread is basically about how does one manage investment risk and it concerns me that some posters are selling a whole bunch of shares because they think a crash is coming.
Investment 101 tells you that you cannot time or predict the market vagaries. It also teaches you that diversification is the best means of handling risk.
I am hesitant to do this because, although this is what I do, I don't want to appear as though I know it all. One is always learning and modifying one's approach.
I diversify my portfolio and mitigate risk by constructing a portfolio that is like this:
60/40 shares/term deposits. Rebalance when out of whack by more than 5%
No share or ETF is more than 10% of the share portfolio.
NZ shares: 7 including 1 ETF -50% of share portfolio
Australian shares: 5 including 1 ETF-22% of share portfolio
International shares : 3 broad based ETFs-28% of share portfolio
Term Deposits: Laddered with 5 year terms in 4 banks owned by 3 entities.( Can't be bothered with bonds)

This is my philosophy. It is pretty normal and let's me sleep at night through boom and bust. Computer tracking programmes are not necessarily a good thing.
If you want risk, buy Australian shares. All the share screeners and annual reports don't seem to work for me. We read and get the feel about NZ shares everyday.

I am not going to buy or sell a share for 12months. Timing,huh!

[workingdad]

My analogy could have been clearer. The point I was trying to make is why would one sell investments because we may have a share-market correction. I own shares in POT, AIA, MFT and RYM among others. These are all high P/E shares. They are also undoubtedly some of the best businesses in NZ. Some posters here say one should sell these shares now as we are going to have a crash next year. We should either go to cash or buy high yield and low P/E shares. If one is a buy and hold investor and has statistically at least another 20 more summers, why do that? The share-market has always recovered and gone higher eventually.
Quality is quality(location,location,location).
As an unabashed Buffett fan, I see that I own a part of some very good businesses (the anchor warp of a POT tug,a toilet in AIA , two spare tyres in MFT and 6 blankets in RYM). These will remain very good businesses through any correction and go on to greater heights.
As I don't need the money for at least 10 years, this is why I am not moving.
Interesting that these 4 companies were my 4 picks for the share competition (with MDZ) giving me a 24th out of 170 place. Putting my mouth where my money is.



This thread is basically about how does one manage investment risk and it concerns me that some posters are selling a whole bunch of shares because they think a crash is coming.
Investment 101 tells you that you cannot time or predict the market vagaries. It also teaches you that diversification is the best means of handling risk.
I am hesitant to do this because, although this is what I do, I don't want to appear as though I know it all. One is always learning and modifying one's approach.
I diversify my portfolio and mitigate risk by constructing a portfolio that is like this:
60/40 shares/term deposits. Rebalance when out of whack by more than 5%
No share or ETF is more than 10% of the share portfolio.
NZ shares: 7 including 1 ETF -50% of share portfolio
Australian shares: 5 including 1 ETF-22% of share portfolio
International shares : 3 broad based ETFs-28% of share portfolio
Term Deposits: Laddered with 5 year terms in 4 banks owned by 3 entities.( Can't be bothered with bonds)

This is my philosophy. It is pretty normal and let's me sleep at night through boom and bust. Computer tracking programmes are not necessarily a good thing.
If you want risk, buy Australian shares. All the share screeners and annual reports don't seem to work for me. We read and get the feel about NZ shares everyday.

I am not going to buy or sell a share for 12months. Timing,huh!

While I don't completely disagree with the top post or the other, my plan differs. The way I see it since I dumped my shares and went into cash I have used up plenty of imputation credits from AIR dividends, made about 3% net and the market generally is lower now than it was when I sold up so I am in a better position had I stayed in. Crystal ball gazing it may be trying to time a correction or crash but I think there is enough tell tale signs out there to warrant the approach I am taking, charts, data and sentiment all give me enough to be concerned about.

Worst case things carry on rosy for another year or two and I miss out on some gains, I subsidise this with my 3% or even 4% gains if it was offsetting mortgage or otherwise and my money is relatively safe.

Best case from this tact and certainly not for some is if there is a considerable bear market given the debt, previous helicopter money and limited central banks headroom I may get into the same shares I had for 30% less maybe even more but I don't have to watch things over the holidays, don't have to worry or care too much about these massive swings from day to day or that things are trending downwards with lower highs ect.

I am comfortable and don't need the money for 15 years but hope to get into a better place by taking this approach than keeping my feet or body in the water.

[iceman]

Absolutely clear that what suits one person may not suit another with regard to investment strategy. Personal circumstances, risk tolerance etc etc all have a major bearing. But one thing that has a big influence on myself and many other investors/posters on here is tax obligations. Long term investors have no income tax obligation on their gains whereas traders do. This creates a big difference in real returns between traders and long term investors. I know this is mentioned regularly on here but needs to be, particularly for any newbies tthat may be reading these posts. Personally, this has a major influence on my investment behaviour as I do not want to become a "trader" as far as IRD is concerned.

[Balance]

So much angst about market crashes etc since this thread started in 2015.

Well, 2019 is almost here so here's to less angst in the new year about investing.

Best way of doing so is to follow the thoughts of one of the greatest investors in the world and here are his thoughts in the event of a Market Crash:

Warren Buffett's Advice for a Stock Market Crash

Stocks can fall far -- and they can fall fast. When investing in stocks, there's always a risk that a major downturn is right around the corner. ...
Avoiding leverage will give you greater clarity. ...
Don't try to time the market. ...
Don't view stocks as ticker symbols. ...
Stay invested. ...
Go shopping. ...
Stay focused on the long haul.

https://www.fool.com/slideshow/warren-buffetts-advice-stock-market-crash/

[iceman]

So much angst about market crashes etc since this thread started in 2015.

Well, 2019 is almost here so here's to less angst in the new year about investing.

Best way of doing so is to follow the thoughts of one of the greatest investors in the world and here are his thoughts in the event of a Market Crash:

Warren Buffett's Advice for a Stock Market Crash

Stocks can fall far -- and they can fall fast. When investing in stocks, there's always a risk that a major downturn is right around the corner. ...
Avoiding leverage will give you greater clarity. ...
Don't try to time the market. ...
Don't view stocks as ticker symbols. ...
Stay invested. ...
Go shopping. ...
Stay focused on the long haul.

https://www.fool.com/slideshow/warren-buffetts-advice-stock-market-crash/

Wise words indeed

[NeverQuestion]

I'm still hold stocks. I'm not pulling out if the stock market completely. But like Buffett and countless other professional investors. I have reviewed,sold risky stocks, and moved to known safe havens. We could easily be in for another 10 years of a bull market in 2019. That really depends If the central banks drop rates in 2019 in response to all this market volatility.

Interesting fact. No two recessions are the same. Looking back there are different triggers. I think this time it is credit fueled. That is why the bull market has been the highest and longest in history. Why bubbles have popped up everywhere. Why companies have been buying stocks and paying dividends with credit.

The scary thing now is that most central banks are close to or even at 0%. No one before the gfc thought that to be possible.
An interesting 2019 it will be.

[Lewylewylewy]

Happy New Year all.

NeverQuestion, good pbt about the rates. Although, do you think we are currently in a recession?

[value_investor]

The nzx50 finishes 2018 with a 4.92% increase, outperforming most other indexes around the world.

Hopefully we see more IPOs in 2019 because the replacement of stocks being taken over in 2018 isn't happening and the market will just get smaller and smaller..

Tilt, TradeMe, Restaurant Brands, Tegal and not a single IPO in 2018 and none in sight for 2019.

[Xerof]

Port of Napier is set for 2019.

[NeverQuestion]

Happy New Year all.

NeverQuestion, good pbt about the rates. Although, do you think we are currently in a recession?


I don't think we are in a recession. I personally believe we have the critical light on right now.

Reasons:

Oil: Oil has dropped quickly since October. It is down around $53 USD I believe. Typically that is an indicator of a recession. Especially when you look at what it was at around November. That is a huge drop. Oil is normally linked to productivity. So If the price of Oil price drops it normally means factories are dropping in output.The problem with this indicator now tho is around the up take in Electric cars/trucks and OPEC unrest. How much of that had an impact on Oil price? Not sure. But that is a huge drop.

Unemployment numbers: I can't find a good link sorry, but some economists I follow are saying there is a coloration between low unemployment levels being an indicator that a recession is coming. Not 100% sure that is true. That might just be a lagging indicator of an Economy coming off the boil so to speak. But the argument here is that low unemployment numbers don't last long and seem to always be followed up with a recession or downturn.

Interest rate hikes: The Fed have been raising interest rates. By my count we are at the 8th hike in the cycle. Take a look at all the major climbs in rates since the 1930s. When the Fed raise they always end up overshooting and causing a recession. But the reasons for them are always different. Right now we are stress testing the economy and I don't like the Feds track record on getting it perfect.

What I'm watching :

I'm watching the currency rates with interest. If you see huge drops in the dollar value of a country then there is something up. When a recession hits a country then Money leaves overseas quickly as foreign investors and those wanting to protect their assets get worried. As confidence slides there becomes a bit of fear for investors to get out ASAP and that causes a run on the currency. Central banks will be reacting to the price fall in the currency rate if it gets too aggressive. A stable currency is critically important to Economic stability and they will react with a rate cut immediately if it starts looking bad.

So in Short. If we start cutting rates we are in a recession/down turn/correction/depression.. or something!

Note: I'm not qualified to offer advice in this area. Just been reading up on a bit of economic history and doing my own analyses. More than happy to be corrected on a point!!

[winner69]

This is good

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/pulling-rabbits-out-of-hats



..... economic theory is the art of pulling a rabbit out of a hat right after you’ve stuffed it into the hat in full view of the audience.

[peat]

The stock market explained in 15 secs

https://twitter.com/abeautifulmind7/status/1079390035974057986

[bull....]

the us markets all printed yearly reversals , as did most markets apart from nz. ( think that means nz is the best place to be heres a good article from the herald if you scroll thru it your see also in 1987 nz out performed the us markets for quite some time. but what is evident you cannot buck the trend of the major markets for ever as witnessed in 1987 when nz fell back into line with a major thud. not suggesting its an 87 just how all markets follow eventually the trend of the biggest.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/

So we have two scenarios us markets rebound and nz stays the same and the comparative re aligns or dow keeps falling or stays the same and nz has a big fall this year to catch up.

us markets yearly reversal points to new lows at some stage

[skid]

the us markets all printed yearly reversals , as did most markets apart from nz. ( think that means nz is the best place to be heres a good article from the herald if you scroll thru it your see also in 1987 nz out performed the us markets for quite some time. but what is evident you cannot buck the trend of the major markets for ever as witnessed in 1987 when nz fell back into line with a major thud. not suggesting its an 87 just how all markets follow eventually the trend of the biggest.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/

So we have two scenarios us markets rebound and nz stays the same and the comparative re aligns or dow keeps falling or stays the same and nz has a big fall this year to catch up.

us markets yearly reversal points to new lows at some stage

there are quite a few moving parts in that scenario;)

[skid]

at time of reading it is looking like we are back where we started..maybe a small net loss...crazy times....seriously ..what were the odds of a further bounce after yesterday...It almost had to correct a little at least-----Some say one more rally ...and then the big one,down---will be interesting to watch..9not sure if that was ''wave theory'' or what)

last time I opened my mouth the US market immediately turned and ate a rather big loss to finish in the green---Thinking about hiring myself out to make similar comments for a small fee

[Bjauck]

The nzx50 finishes 2018 with a 4.92% increase, outperforming most other indexes around the world.

Hopefully we see more IPOs in 2019 because the replacement of stocks being taken over in 2018 isn't happening and the market will just get smaller and smaller..

Tilt, TradeMe, Restaurant Brands, Tegal and not a single IPO in 2018 and none in sight for 2019.

2018 was not a good year for stock market variety and depth but I think It is a long term issue that the NZ stock market has shrunk in relation to the size of the economy. Isn’t it partly a structural issue to do with the lack of incentivised pension schemes (until even the weak KiwiSaver came along) coupled the household reliance on tax preferred residential real estate investment?

The NZ shrinking stock exchange is perhaps also in a bit of a vicious circle as NZ pension schemes and instos need to invest heavily overseas to obtain a balanced equity portfolio? Consequently NZ companies need to locate overseas to obtain access to capital?

[bull....]

there are quite a few moving parts in that scenario;)

thats the markets , lots of ever evolving moving parts

[Vagabond47]

The nzx50 finishes 2018 with a 4.92% increase, outperforming most other indexes around the world.

Hopefully we see more IPOs in 2019 because the replacement of stocks being taken over in 2018 isn't happening and the market will just get smaller and smaller..

Tilt, TradeMe, Restaurant Brands, Tegal and not a single IPO in 2018 and none in sight for 2019.

Are you comparing total returns, or capital returns? Bearing in mind that the NZX is the only major index that is a total returns index, and all others are capital indices. (AFAIK)

[Bobdn]

LOL. what was this guy thinking? 25 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway stock is in Apple. When was having 25 per cent of your investments in one stock a good idea? Sure sure, I know its tempting to roll out the fishing stories at this stage, we've all had luck piling into one stock in the market but, really, it's never a good idea to do this and it almost always ends badly. There's no suck thing as a sure bet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-apple-stock/index.html


"Don't bet the Farm, keep investments diversified, simple"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-letter/dont-bet-the-farm-keep-investments-simple-diversified-buffett-idUSBREA1N1H520140224

[Balance]

LOL. what was this guy thinking? 25 per cent of Berkshire Hathaway stock is in Apple. When was having 25 per cent of your investments in one stock a good idea? Sure sure, I know its tempting to roll out the fishing stories at this stage, we've all had luck piling into one stock in the market but, really, it's never a good idea to do this and it almost always ends badly. There's no suck thing as a sure bet.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/investing/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-apple-stock/index.html


"Don't bet the Farm, keep investments diversified, simple"

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-buffett-letter/dont-bet-the-farm-keep-investments-simple-diversified-buffett-idUSBREA1N1H520140224

Most of the shares were bought back in 2015/16 so his entry cost is still well below $100. He is probably adding more as we write - that's his style and his track record speaks for itself.

[skid]

thats the markets , lots of ever evolving moving parts

More than what we are probably considering:mellow:

[skid]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-the-market-forgot-about-trump-the-fiscal-boost-was-temporary-but-the-chaos-was-permanent-2019-01-03

[Valuegrowth]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/03/intl_business/nikkei-japan-apple/index.html

[Bobdn]

Most of the shares were bought back in 2015/16 so his entry cost is still well below $100. He is probably adding more as we write - that's his style and his track record speaks for itself.

My purchase price for Apple was $90 (actually around $600 then they did the 7:1) I bought 15 shares (which became 105 shares)! To get it at that price you had to buy before 15/16.

"Buffett first announced Berkshire was buying (https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2017/02/27/buffett-buys-airlines-and-apple-full-interview.html) Apple in February 2017 despite his usual aversion to tech stocks. On Feb. 1, 2017, Apple’s shares were around $129 so the Oracle of Omaha is likely still in the green on the first portion of stock he bought. But Berkshire added to that stake significantly the last two years at likely higher prices."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/buffetts-berkshire-set-to-lose-about-2point8-billion-on-apples-after-market-drop-.html

I wonder if he consoles himself like I do with this old line "Well, at least I'm still collecting dividends". I hope Apple recovers and then some. All our index/Kiwisaver funds have some.

[Raz]

I sold 60% of my Apple shares in August, (see US markets thread from August) sold at the top for once in my life, best deal I ever made, been in since 2011. My 40% remaining are all free shares, still on paper i lost big today which caused me to pause. Buffett would have paid no more than 120$ for them then....they closed at 142$.

[bull....]

im actually short as mentioned earlier on the thread shorted at 2.15 before there last results , went higher after results got a bit worried when it started hitting the 2.20s but all looking good now. its a good hedge

[Balance]

My purchase price for Apple was $90 (actually around $600 then they did the 7:1) I bought 15 shares (which became 105 shares)! To get it at that price you had to buy before 15/16.

"Buffett first announced Berkshire was buying (https://buffett.cnbc.com/video/2017/02/27/buffett-buys-airlines-and-apple-full-interview.html) Apple in February 2017 despite his usual aversion to tech stocks. On Feb. 1, 2017, Apple’s shares were around $129 so the Oracle of Omaha is likely still in the green on the first portion of stock he bought. But Berkshire added to that stake significantly the last two years at likely higher prices."

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/buffetts-berkshire-set-to-lose-about-2point8-billion-on-apples-after-market-drop-.html

I wonder if he consoles himself like I do with this old line "Well, at least I'm still collecting dividends". I hope Apple recovers and then some. All our index/Kiwisaver funds have some.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/may/16/warren-buffett-apple-stocks-berkshire-hathaway

"Berkshire Hathaway, which manages assets and investments of more than $500bn, disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday that it held 9.8m Apple shares as of 31 March." (2016)

CNBC is out by over a year?

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-stock-warren-buffett-2017-11?r=US&IR=T

[Bobdn]

CNBC could be out by a bit but my main point was having 1/4 of all of ones assets in a single company is a super risky move.

Jack Bogle, as always, offers some great advice. I moved a tad more into term deposits over the last few days.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-on-the-stock-market-51545950443

PS, I've just seen this - according to this article he's now underwater.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-warren-buffett-could-be-losing-billions-on-his-apple-stock-2019-01-03

[Master98]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/blackstone-byron-wien-sees-stock-market-up-15-percent-this-year-to-new-highs.html

Blackstone's Byron Wien sees the S&P 500 rallying 15% this year to new all-time highs

[winner69]

Good job numbers but it seemed it was Powell’s speech that really drove the market’s higher in the USA

They will be pleased he’s ‘listening’ to them

The worlds all happy again

[bull....]

Good job numbers but it seemed it was Powell’s speech that really drove the market’s higher in the USA

They will be pleased he’s ‘listening’ to them

The worlds all happy again

continuing the rebound from xmas , volumes still low due to holidays need to see what happens when everyones back

[couta1]

Thunderbirds are go.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-the-oil-market-fall-together-thanks-to-global-economic-worries-2019-01-03
(https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/04/apple-recovers-slightly-from-its-worst-day-since-2013.html)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2018/12/28/a-2019-oil-forecast-like-2018-or-worse/#6df899915d57

[kiora]

Thunderbirds are go.

I suspect so.All in again? :)

[BlackPeter]

Thunderbirds are go.

Well yes, we are likely to see a nice bounce on Monday. Only open question - is the cat already dead or still alive?

[winner69]

Apparently the cool in thing to do at the moment is (re)read Chapter 8 of Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor

[BlackPeter]

Apparently the cool in thing to do at the moment is (re)read Chapter 8 of Ben Graham's The Intelligent Investor

"The investor and market fluctuations". Yes, sounds appropriate ... and it does contain some notes very worthwhile reading.

But than - Grahams book is written for investors. I'd think the majority of posters here are traders who need to time the market.

On the other hand - his comments on DOW theory (describing how it became ineffective after it has been published) are very relevant as well for traders ... but are we sure they want to know them?

[Aaron]

Good job numbers but it seemed it was Powell’s speech that really drove the market’s higher in the USA

They will be pleased he’s ‘listening’ to them

The worlds all happy again

Is it a written mandate for the Federal Reserve to keep asset prices inflated?? Is the Federal Reserve really independent if "the markets" are telling them what to do?

[Valuegrowth]

NZ market outperformed the other markets in 2018.

https://www.vccircle.com/foreign-fund-outflow-from-india-other-asian-markets-hits-seven-year-high-in-2018/ (https://www.vccircle.com/foreign-fund-outflow-from-india-other-asian-markets-hits-seven-year-high-in-2018/)

[winner69]

Is it a written mandate for the Federal Reserve to keep asset prices inflated?? Is the Federal Reserve really independent if "the markets" are telling them what to do?

Questions or statements Aaron

[Onion]

[QUOTE=Valuegrowth;743129]NZ market outperformed the other markets in 2018.

(https://www.vccircle.com/foreign-fund-outflow-from-india-other-asian-markets-hits-seven-year-high-in-2018/)I know the hard way that NZ outperformed the US in the latter half -- I decided that some international diversity would be good so dripped funds into the Smartshares US 500 (USF) fund -- the one that has declined (including currency changes) about 20% in the 3 months to the year end. :t_down:

[Aaron]

Questions or statements Aaron

There is a big clue in the sentences written (hint involves punctuation).To be fair the overuse of question marks may be confusing. More like exclamation points if you use more than one at the end of a question.

[Joshuatree]

World Bank warns brewing trade storm jeopardizes global economy ...https://www.afp.com/.../world-bank-warns-brewing-trade-storm-jeopardizes-global-ec (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjt5LCckN_fAhXWAIgKHdUuCxAQFjAEegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afp.com%2Fen%2Fnews%2F15%2Fw orld-bank-warns-brewing-trade-storm-jeopardizes-global-economy-doc-1c30e01&usg=AOvVaw073TxBfmHCwDzfKFgEJC_s)...

At the center of the turmoil, US economic growth is expected to slow this year by four tenths of a point, falling to 2.5 percent down from 2.9 percent in 2018, and to slow even further next year to 1.7 percent.
China's economy also is slowing amid the trade dispute, and growth should slip to 6.2 percent this year and next.

[bull....]

us markets touching resistance today 24000 , 2600 see what happens

[macduffy]

Who would have thought it?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-just-got-off-to-its-best-start-in-13-years-2019-01-10

[Bobdn]

Who would have thought it?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-just-got-off-to-its-best-start-in-13-years-2019-01-10


Yeah, just sad. I've only managed to drip feed $27,000 into the S&P 500 over the last two months or so but now that we've had this little rally I've lost all enthusiasm. I was hoping for some more bear fireworks :( Oh well. Hopefully we'll see a complete collapse soon.

[Joshuatree]

Its been great for me as ive had another chance to take more money off the table at better prices then expected .

[Bobdn]

Yes, I know what you mean.

[NeverQuestion]

Yeah, just sad. I've only managed to drip feed $27,000 into the S&P 500 over the last two months or so but now that we've had this little rally I've lost all enthusiasm. I was hoping for some more bear fireworks :( Oh well. Hopefully we'll see a complete collapse soon.

There is something called the plunge protection team. Was brought in after Reagan and, surprise, surprise, the 1987 Stock market crash! As I understand it they have a lot of firepower to throw at the markets when they take a drive. I suspect these rallies are in part their doing. However it is only speculation, Your not allowed to report on their movements, can't be audited hence they may or may not be the buyers of key strategic assess. Reports directly to the President and I believe did so in December :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-24/traders-don-t-need-steven-mnuchin-to-tell-them-stocks-in-trouble

Light reading

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

ps China are doing the same thing

[bull....]

us markets respecting resistances at the moment.

earnings next week start , brexit vote

[BlackPeter]

Stunned silence on this thread?

I reccon May's deal will be declined this week in parliament but given that the Brits don't know what they want and given that weak and inept May is the best person the UK could muster as their leader nothing will change. Brits probably ask the EU for an extension of the Brexit deadline and markets will jitter as before. More of the same.

Trump looking increasingly exhausted, isolated, old and tired. Eventually he will lose the fight, but not fast. Still lots of damage for him to do (not just) to the US economy. More of the same.

Failing a surprise - markets are likely to go down a bit for the next handful of days. The interesting question will be - will we see lower or higher lows?

What do people think?