Black Monday

[blackcap]

Hmm - NZX50 dipped again below the MA200 - though it felt that some of the stocks I am watching started to improve again towards the end of the day ...

Needs still confirmation ... but we certainly do live in interesting times ...

On top of that I see the Dow is called down 286 points and Nasdaq 102 as I type. Could be an interesting day tomorrow if this continues.

[couta1]

A timely reminder from the book of Proverbs on a day like today as I was reading chapter 23." Don't wear yourself out trying to get rich, be wise enough to know when to quit, in the blink of an eye wealth disappears for it will sprout wings and fly away like an eagle." Sleep tight all.

[RupertBear]

A timely reminder from the book of Proverbs on a day like today as I was reading chapter 23." Don't wear yourself out trying to get rich, be wise enough to know when to quit, in the blink of an eye wealth disappears for it will sprout wings and fly away like an eagle." Sleep tight all.

Geepers Couta thats enough to give a Bear nightmares! :mellow:

[Tomtom]

Fairly bleak view expressed on bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-23/one-of-china-s-biggest-funds-is-getting-ready-to-dump-stocks?srnd=premium-asia):

"Global markets including the U.S. have peaked. We should be prepared for the next round of financial crises and turmoils."

Schedule doesn't really work for me, I'm already busy lounging around the office and day-dreaming about a long summer holiday I have booked. Can we just delay panicking until about March when the Europeans start to really squeeze the British? It seems more reasonable for all involved.

[Aaron]

By the way nz is way overvalued still relative to other markets. anyway back to the holiday.

Dear Bull
Is that on a price to earnings basis?

[Scrunch]

Needs still confirmation ... but we certainly do live in interesting times ...

No confirmation needed. we do. It may not stay that way but the dow is clawing back earlier losses. It was down around 500 but now only down 60.

[winner69]

Not a bad sort of day on the S&P500 today — solid buying after early jitters

This is interesting from twitter though — shows the big number that doesn’t look too bad (yet) hides a lot of losses over the last year. Prob NZ situation is similar but brokers don’t tell you that sort of stuff.

Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla)
24/10/18, 3:10 AM

"74% of the S&P is now 10%+ off their 52-week highs.

Of those, 200 companies are in a 'bear market' (20% or more below their 52-wk high).

[Beagle]

A timely reminder from the book of Proverbs on a day like today as I was reading chapter 23." Don't wear yourself out trying to get rich, be wise enough to know when to quit, in the blink of an eye wealth disappears for it will sprout wings and fly away like an eagle." Sleep tight all.

Thanks for sharing mate. There's some awesome wisdom in the book of Proverbs. My Living Bible Proverbs 23 v4-5 puts it this way. Don't weary
yourself trying to get rich. Why waste your time ? For riches can disappear as though they had the wings of a bird. (Emphasis added).

[arc]

Perceptions and Synchronicity

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/former-fed-chairman-paul-volcker-thinks-were-in-a-hell-of-a-mess.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/former-fed-chairman-paul-volcker-thinks-were-in-a-hell-of-a-mess.html)

[peat]

Is this the time the greedy are shovelling into their holdings as the fearful panic and pull the trigger.
Or do the patient wait for those bargains at some future final capitulation point , days , weeks or months ahead (who knows)?

[BlackPeter]

Is this the time the greedy are shovelling into their holdings as the fearful panic and pull the trigger.
Or do the patient wait for those bargains at some future final capitulation point , days , weeks or months ahead (who knows)?

That's the 100 million dollar question.

I do sit on the fence ... though I did buy some recently ;);

[Timesurfer]

Don't weary yourself trying to get rich. Why waste your time ? For riches can disappear as though they had the wings of a bird. (Emphasis added).

The delicate balance between that and 2Thessalonians 3:10

[Biscuit]

Is this the time the greedy are shovelling into their holdings as the fearful panic and pull the trigger.
Or do the patient wait for those bargains at some future final capitulation point , days , weeks or months ahead (who knows)?

Probably both those things as they are not mutually exclusive. I doubt it is the right time to be greedy. I'm in the patient camp, but then I have been for a while now.

[Beagle]

The delicate balance between that and 2Thessalonians 3:10

"He who does not work shall not eat". My interpretation on the difference is the former refers to "striving" (hence the likelihood of becoming weary especially in this market) to get rich whereas the latter refers to the dignity of good honest day's work without necessarily any attempt to get rich out of it.

[Lewylewylewy]

"He who does not work shall not eat"

You're confused, that's not from the book of proverbs, i think that was the government's mantra on raising the retirement age, whilst simultaneously reducing the cost to the healthcare system due to OAPs

[bull....]

watch the feb lows , bounce or crash? remeber nz is massively overvalued as of today

[couta1]

watch the feb lows , bounce or crash? remeber nz is massively overvalued as of today Not entirely true bull, still value plays around and others that have not increased over the last year or so.

[bull....]

Not entirely true bull, still value plays around and others that have not increased over the last year or so.

nz could still fall around 1200 pts or another 13% just to hit the near the bottom of the up trend channel , currently its still near the top even oafter the 8% its already fallen. just goes to show nz was running on nitro fumes. pe ratios are still high , grossly high for some big caps. anyway guess your know in hindsight a

[Balance]

watch the feb lows , bounce or crash? remeber nz is massively overvalued as of today

How massively overvalued,Bull?

[bull....]

How massively overvalued,Bull?

chart wise , % wise nz out performed most markets time to catch up on the down side i reckon. , pe wise very high , earnings growth slowing , input costs rising , global growth slowing etc

anyway time for bed another day tonight

[King1212]

Agree bull....overvalued is what nz shares. I hVe none except a wee parcel of STU.

[Balance]

chart wise , % wise nz out performed most markets time to catch up on the down side i reckon. , pe wise very high , earnings growth slowing , input costs rising , global growth slowing etc

anyway time for bed another day tonight

Charts tell one story - that's for sure.

I find it hard however to believe that NZ market has outperformed most markets!

[Beagle]

Some commentators are saying the forward PE on the NZX50 is now only 17.5. Massively overvalued, probably not but some stocks on PE's north of 25 with limited growth prospects probably are.

Anyway...yet another day of turbulence ahead. If this was an airplane ride I think everyone would have their seat belts firmly fastened and many of the sick bags would have already been used. ALL of the gains for 2018 for the NZX50 (which remember is a gross index so includes dividends) have been wiped out in October as they have for the DOW and many other indices.

[minimoke]

Anyway...yet another day of turbulence ahead. If this was an airplane ride I think everyone would have their seat belts firmly fastened and many of the sick bags would have already been used. .The shirt is off my back and I'm only left with the lingering scent of bile in my nostrils

[Balance]

Some commentators are saying the forward PE on the NZX50 is now only 17.5. Massively overvalued, probably not but some stocks on PE's north of 25 with limited growth prospects probably are.

Anyway...yet another day of turbulence ahead. If this was an airplane ride I think everyone would have their seat belts firmly fastened and many of the sick bags would have already been used. ALL of the gains for 2018 for the NZX50 (which remember is a gross index so includes dividends) have been wiped out in October as they have for the DOW and many other indices.


Remember the old adage that markets go up like an escalator but fall like a lift!

[Beagle]

Market now down more than 9% this month :eek2:

[RupertBear]

Market now down more than 9% this month :eek2:

Yes its bleak out there :( I am hoping that dead cat will make an appearance soon and it still likes to drink milk so I can trim down SUM of my holdings ;)

[BlackPeter]

Yes its bleak out there :( I am hoping that dead cat will make an appearance soon and it still likes to drink milk so I can trim down SUM of my holdings ;)

Its not a bear yet unless we all talk us into it. Might be a quite lively cat ...

Milk stocks still look quite sick ... but what is wrong with SUM? Nobody yet wants to fill my offer ;);

[RupertBear]

Its not a bear yet unless we all talk us into it. Might be a quite lively cat ...

Milk stocks still look quite sick ... but what is wrong with SUM? Nobody yet wants to fill my offer ;);

I helped fill SUM ones order yesterday and now I am wondering what have I done! Duh! :mellow:

[Beagle]

Its not a bear yet unless we all talk us into it. Might be a quite lively cat ...

Milk stocks still look quite sick ... but what is wrong with SUM? Nobody yet wants to fill my offer ;);

Real estate is starting to fall in many countries and the most vulnerable are those countries where the price on a per capita basis is the most expensive and apart from Hong Kong that's New Zealand and in particular Auckland.

SUM has a focus on selling down two large facilities in Auckland and are probably more vulnerable right at the minute than any of the other sector players although I also note RYM have a number of Auckland developments on the go, (but are smart enough to discount the heck out of the weekly fee to get most units sold off the plans). If real estate in Auckland starts to tank like it is in Melbourne we are in for interesting times ahead.

[NZSilver]

Notice US markets bounced after initial fall and have now fallen again and have hit new lows on increasing volumes - a very bad sign. I believe it is now time to take partial defensive actions and preserve a portion of capital exposed to the equity markets. Very very risky trying to buy predicting a bounce back at in this current trend. Recommendation for anyone thinking about buying - sit on your hands.

[blackcap]

Notice US markets bounced after initial fall and have now fallen again and have hit new lows on increasing volumes - a very bad sign. I believe it is now time to take partial defensive actions and preserve a portion of capital exposed to the equity markets. Very very risky trying to buy predicting a bounce back at in this current trend. Recommendation for anyone thinking about buying - sit on your hands.

There is a silver lining though. Post close of trade they have bounced back and the Dow is now up 117 and the Nasdaq up 66. But that post close bounce was higher earlier on. Will be interesting to see where it goes during the day.

[sb9]

Notice US markets bounced after initial fall and have now fallen again and have hit new lows on increasing volumes - a very bad sign. I believe it is now time to take partial defensive actions and preserve a portion of capital exposed to the equity markets. Very very risky trying to buy predicting a bounce back at in this current trend. Recommendation for anyone thinking about buying - sit on your hands.

Fair call, October can't end soon enough.

The more Trump criticises Fed's actions, market is falling further and further.

[couta1]

I helped fill SUM ones order yesterday and now I am wondering what have I done! Duh! :mellow: You'll be fine young bear, think a little longer term.PS-If it wasn't for HLG my overall portfolio would be down over 200k.Lol

[RupertBear]

You'll be fine young bear, think a little longer term.PS-If it wasn't for HLG my overall portfolio would be down over 200k.Lol

:eek2: One word comes to mind but I cant write it on here or I will be banned! :D

[Blue Skies]

Once these fractious US Mid-Term elections on Nov 6 are out of the way, plus this (earning season) blackout period on companies & management buying back their own stock, I think we'll see a strong bounce leading up to Christmas. Here, there's some very sound profitable well run companies with strong tailwinds, great assets, healthy PE's & delivering to a growing need, being caught up in the sentiment & way oversold imho. (e.g. OCA SUM)

[macduffy]

Once these fractious US Mid-Term elections on Nov 6 are out of the way, plus this (earning season) blackout period on companies & management buying back their own stock, I think we'll see a strong bounce leading up to Christmas. Here, there's some very sound profitable well run companies with strong tailwinds, great assets, healthy PE's & delivering to a growing need, being caught up in the sentiment & way oversold imho. (e.g. OCA SUM)

Yes, that's one theory being expounded by some on Wall Street at present. On the other hand, it could be the circuit-breaker that stops this long-running bull! We'll know soon enough.

[GTM 3442]

It does seem a little early for the Boxing Day sales, but I suppose we'll all manage

[arc]

The current sell down phase seems to be sweeping across the globe as international exchanges open.

[Joshuatree]

Of 24 major exchanges in asia /pacific only 2 are up in the last year, India and NZ
On a 1 month basis all in the red, with 10 at -10% down or more and many others including NZ in the -7% range

asiaoverview (https://markets.wsj.com/asiaoverview?mod=mdc_topnav_2_3022)

[kiora]

Crypto's relatively calm in comparison,go figure!

[NeverQuestion]

Crypto's relatively calm in comparison,go figure!

Na, it just lags

https://coinmarketcap.com

All dropped in single digits

[Valuegrowth]

After Tuesday’s massive sell-off in the global crude oil markets, stocks are also tanking. Stock rout hit Asia as well. Crude is following global stocks.

Is it time to look for smart value play in global markets?

I saw somewhere heavy stock and bond sell-off has a silver lining. Over the last 12 months NZ market did well when compare with other Asian and Pacific markets. Even today it didn’t drop more than 1%. On the other hand Japanese stocks dropped by more than 3%. Today’s surprise winner is badly beaten down Pakistan market. Dollar also might drop.

[Baa_Baa]

Colin weighs in, unusually mid week, so it must be important.

"It is important in times like this not to join the panic. Stick to your original plan. If you are a long-term investor, turn off the TV and wait this out. Earnings are rising and the economy is in good shape. Netflix (NFLX) for example added 6 million subscribers (4.8%) in the last quarter. As a business owner you wouldn't dream of selling. Look for opportunities when the stampede has ended and the dust has settled."

https://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/

Check him out, there're very few sano commentators imho, but Colin does a good job.

[Beagle]

China seems to be digging in for a full blown trade war which is never good for worldwide economic growth. The Fed seems intent on slamming on the brakes with higher rates. Many of the world's markets are testing primary support. Many of the emerging markets are a mess with unstable political, economic or financial systems. The PIGS in Europe are not out of the hole they dug themselves during the GFC. Brexit plan still to be unveiled, if any. Is this the beginning of the end of the great bull market that's lasted nearly a decade since the end of the GFC ?
The jury is out but I think there are sound reasons to be a bit cautious and defensive and lock in some of the extraordinary gains of the last few years. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit and locking in past gains.

[kiora]

Colin weighs in, unusually mid week, so it must be important.

"It is important in times like this not to join the panic. Stick to your original plan. If you are a long-term investor, turn off the TV and wait this out. Earnings are rising and the economy is in good shape. Netflix (NFLX) for example added 6 million subscribers (4.8%) in the last quarter. As a business owner you wouldn't dream of selling. Look for opportunities when the stampede has ended and the dust has settled."

https://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/

Check him out, there're very few sano commentators imho, but Colin does a good job.

Yep I agree,Colin is very astute. I've been following him for a few years.I lightened up 2 months ago and sticking to the plan.Portfolio down only 3 % so I'm relaxed.Waiting now with figure over the button but not in a rush.

[Valuegrowth]

USA futures are rebounding.

Trend for other assets

https://www.graincentral.com/markets/daily-market-wire-25-october-2018/
https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-london-copper-prices-slip-to-2-wk-low-after-wall-street-rout-idUSL3N1X521

[see weed]

You'll be fine young bear, think a little longer term.PS-If it wasn't for HLG my overall portfolio would be down over 200k.Lol
LOL over here too. We should have a competition on who can loose the most. Me down about 280k from top, but still in the green about 190k thanks to ATM. Sold HLG to buy ATM, it was like jumping off the up escalator onto the down escalator:D.

[percy]

LOL over here too. We should have a competition on who can loose the most. Me down about 280k from top, but still in the green about 190k thanks to ATM. Sold HLG to buy ATM, it was like jumping off the up escalator onto the down escalator:D.

Gee whiz you and Couta1 certainly "live in interesting times".
Make me feel like a "boring old f'rt".....lol.

[winner69]

Big round of applause for the bargain hunters who came out in force in the US last night to stop the rot

Hope they come out in NZ today

[LAC]

LOL over here too. We should have a competition on who can loose the most. Me down about 280k from top, but still in the green about 190k thanks to ATM. Sold HLG to buy ATM, it was like jumping off the up escalator onto the down escalator:D.
Phew, feel a lot better reading this, my retirement sector has taken an absolute hammering and in some serious red but the others have stayed in the green (exception being Turners)

[blackcap]

Phew, feel a lot better reading this, my retirement sector has taken an absolute hammering and in some serious red but the others have stayed in the green (exception being Turners)

Yeah and now 15 mins after market, the Nasdaq is down 110 and the Dow down 105. What is going on with these markets.

[sb9]

Good earnings beat by Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Intel should help boost sentiment (tech).

[bull....]

Good earnings beat by Amazon, Alphabet (Google) and Intel should help boost sentiment (tech).

the narrative has changed. its now sell on the news , sell the rallies mode see what happens when we hit feb lows

[Beagle]

Dead cat bounce or the first sign of the correction coming to an end ? That's the $64,000 question ! (or for some much higher numbers than that).
Outlook is the concern https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world

[bull....]

Dead cat bounce or the first sign of the correction coming to an end ? That's the $64,000 question ! (or for some much higher numbers than that).
Outlook is the concern https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world

tanking in after market now after those amazon cfo comments

[blackcap]

tanking in after market now after those amazon cfo comments

Yeah all the gains of the day pretty much wiped out in the after market (Nasdaq) Dow still up a bit. A lot of volatility around at the moment. Will be interesting to see where NZ, Australia and Asia go from here.

[bull....]

Yeah all the gains of the day pretty much wiped out in the after market (Nasdaq) Dow still up a bit. A lot of volatility around at the moment. Will be interesting to see where NZ, Australia and Asia go from here.

bounces are to be expected from oversold levels. even if temporary. if your not fast your last is the motto

[NZSilver]

A lot less upside potential cf downside risk at this present time. Preserve some capital, pay down debt. The real money is made a lot further along from this point - when a bear market begins its uptrend. Macro economics - all topics discussed above but notably corporate debt, and for NZ - China slowdown could have huge impact on our economy. 25% of our exports go to China, we are well and truely connected to their economy.

[BlackPeter]

A lot less upside potential cf downside risk at this present time. Preserve some capital, pay down debt. The real money is made a lot further along from this point - when a bear market begins its uptrend. Macro economics - all topics discussed above but notably corporate debt, and for NZ - China slowdown could have huge impact on our economy. 25% of our exports go to China, we are well and truely connected to their economy.

... and China is still gowing with 6.5%. Shudder - imagine this would happen to our economy ;);

[couta1]

A lot less upside potential cf downside risk at this present time. Preserve some capital, pay down debt. The real money is made a lot further along from this point - when a bear market begins its uptrend. Macro economics - all topics discussed above but notably corporate debt, and for NZ - China slowdown could have huge impact on our economy. 25% of our exports go to China, we are well and truely connected to their economy. Yes we'll apparently there is a good chance of rain this weekend also, remember" Time in the market is more important than trying to Time the market"

[arc]

Crypto's relatively calm in comparison,go figure!

Dont go there, Crypto is becoming known as the domain of massive scams and hidden criminal entities.
Consider that the actual creator of the original bitcoin has never been identified, because "he" does not exist, after heavy investigation its looking like it was a joint effort by a large team who refuse to be identified or found. They try to point to some character but that's just a false front.
bitcoin and other crypto coins are not worth toilet paper. they should meet the same end

[Lego_Man]

Very limp bounce i have to say, with the US futures selling off after hours.

Suspect this failure to rally has opened up further downside.

[BlackPeter]

Just to put a bit of balance into the blood smear on the floor:

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/10/25/investing/stocks-bargain-hunting-october/index.html

... and what was the old saying? Buy when others are fearful.

CNN's Fear and Greed Index is on a 9 (out of 100): "Extreme Fear".

What better time to buy?

[stoploss]

Best time to buy when market is in a state of total despair .... “ it’s always darkest before the dawn “
We are nowhere near this at the moment ....,

[BlackPeter]

Best time to buy when market is in a state of total despair .... “ it’s always darkest before the dawn “
We are nowhere near this at the moment ....,

Correct - but it might take a long time to get there ... unless you know that this one is the big one. Do you? I don't.

[couta1]

The Friday Bear Cometh.

[blackcap]

The Friday Bear Cometh.

Dow is now down 300 and Nasdaq is down 191 as I type. The bear cometh indeed. Fascinating to see these after close markets. I also note Amazon and Alphabet both disappointed with post close Q3 results.

[Beagle]

A lot of the world markets are in bear territory now, i.e. down more than 20% off their high's.
I have been busy positioning my portfolio very defensively. Utilities, REIT's, Healthcare (on compelling multiple OCA), Consumer staple, Synlait (forward PE only 16 at this level), modest stakes in retail HLG and TRA and modest stake in financial HBL. Cash allocation is currently VERY high.

[Baa_Baa]

There's no doubt things have turned after such a long bull run, but in the scheme of it, the reversals so far generally speaking are relatively minor and still consistent with a correction rather than a crash.

Nevertheless, if one looks at the subtle changes in the rhetoric of distinguished posters and taking into account the actions of the few who choose to disclose their strategy and actions, the theme seems to be preparedness.

It might get better, it might get worse, but being prepared is the hallmark of an active investor, having a plan regardless of which way the markets move. Having a strategy, and a plan to execute that strategy is paramount, but perhaps not familiar with many who have enjoyed and only ever seen a market that goes relentlessly upwards.

What we investors or traders do in the downturns possibly defines us more than what we have done in the upturns. Either way it certainly defines our individual end-game, when we count our chips and ask ourselves what would we have done differently.

[RupertBear]

There's no doubt things have turned after such a long bull run, but in the scheme of it, the reversals so far generally speaking are relatively minor and still consistent with a correction rather than a crash.

Nevertheless, if one looks at the subtle changes in the rhetoric of distinguished posters and taking into account the actions of the few who choose to disclose their strategy and actions, the theme seems to be preparedness.

It might get better, it might get worse, but being prepared is the hallmark of an active investor, having a plan regardless of which way the markets move. Having a strategy, and a plan to execute that strategy is paramount, but perhaps not familiar with many who have enjoyed and only ever seen a market that goes relentlessly upwards.

What we investors or traders do in the downturns possibly defines us more than what we have done in the upturns. Either way it certainly defines our individual end-game, when we count our chips and ask ourselves what would we have done differently.

I would have sold ATM @ $14.62 :D

[couta1]

[/B]
I would have sold ATM @ $14.62 :D Ditto but the fact that it was going to $20 stopped me.Lol

[RupertBear]

Ditto but the fact that it was going to $20 stopped me.Lol


You, me and a few others too ;)

PS and WHEN it gets back to $14.62 we probably wont want to sell them then either :D

[couta1]

You, me and a few others too ;)

PS and WHEN it gets back to $14.62 we probably wont want to sell them then either :D And why on Earth would we when it's going to $20.

[RupertBear]

And why on Earth would we when it's going to $20.

Wish it would hurry up!

[Valuegrowth]

As markets continue to gyrate,defensive non-cyclical great value plays seem to be the one of the safest investment options.

Utilities: Electricity, gas and water are essentials.
Food and beverage: Demand for such staple stocks remains unaffected by market gyrations.

[bull....]

i must say its getting more volatile but vix still no where near levels of feb or previous big corrections like 10 , 11 ,16 needs to go 40 or more i reckon before i might be interested

[NeverQuestion]

i must say its getting more volatile but vix still no where near levels of feb or previous big corrections like 10 , 11 ,16 needs to go 40 or more i reckon before i might be interested

Wait for a few more Fed rate hikes. I still think we are a year out of the big one. Too much credit floating around the system. Defaults will be the trigger.

[Raz]

There's no doubt things have turned after such a long bull run, but in the scheme of it, the reversals so far generally speaking are relatively minor and still consistent with a correction rather than a crash.

Nevertheless, if one looks at the subtle changes in the rhetoric of distinguished posters and taking into account the actions of the few who choose to disclose their strategy and actions, the theme seems to be preparedness.

It might get better, it might get worse, but being prepared is the hallmark of an active investor, having a plan regardless of which way the markets move. Having a strategy, and a plan to execute that strategy is paramount, but perhaps not familiar with many who have enjoyed and only ever seen a market that goes relentlessly upwards.

What we investors or traders do in the downturns possibly defines us more than what we have done in the upturns. Either way it certainly defines our individual end-game, when we count our chips and ask ourselves what would we have done differently.

I hope people are taking stock, not so worried here however in the US margin and leverage are a lot more liberal, in the past ten years it’s been heavy promoted you need 8-10million in equities to be truly financially independent, many would be lucky not to have more than 50 d/e on a portfilio at that level unless been in for the entire decade.

[Blue Skies]

Wait for a few more Fed rate hikes. I still think we are a year out of the big one. Too much credit floating around the system. Defaults will be the trigger.

After October volatility will be interesting to see if the Fed does hike again in Dec. Might be more wary of consequences, or perhaps these small incremental adjustments are the safer long term option. The irony of it, if Fed does hike, it's because the economy is doing well, full employment, people spending etc.
Lets not forget the US economy still grew by healthy 3.5% in 3rd quarter.

[Leftfield]

Good post Baa Baa (4825)

My strategy (always long term, not trading) has been to take a few gains off the table, increase my cash and watch individual stocks T/A closely. I've reduced (or sold out) and shares in where T/A is bearish (THL and HBL are good examples) but am holding shares that may still outperform in a bear market (e.g. ATM, OCA)

Whether I add to any positions and snap up any 'bargains' is pretty much decided day to day by watching T/A and carefully reading any market updates/forecasts. IMO uncertainties caused by the forthcoming USA mid-term elections are a good reason to stay on the sidelines for the next couple of weeks.

[winner69]

After October volatility will be interesting to see if the Fed does hike again in Dec. Might be more wary of consequences, or perhaps these small incremental adjustments are the safer long term option. The irony of it, if Fed does hike, it's because the economy is doing well, full employment, people spending etc.
Lets not forget the US economy still grew by healthy 3.5% in 3rd quarter.

Fed will get cold feet and no more hikes this year ....those who really control the US will see to that

[BlackPeter]

Fed will get cold feet and no more hikes this year ....those who really control the US will see to that

Not sure who "really controls the US" - but you well might be right ;);

Question is - what happens if fed is reducing the interest rate in response to falling markets?

[value_investor]

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Shiller PE (10 Year S&P500 PE adjusted for inflation) now at the highest level ever since the 2000 crash.

The FANG stocks make up over 40% of the contribution of the gain in the market so a slowdown could slow down the market. I'm not in the US market but its probably the most interesting. Amazon currently trading at a PE of 151 and a forward PE of 75. I'm not betting against Amazon but they and a lot of other tech stocks will have to perform near perfectly to avoid negative share performance.

Not often I'm right on anything (according to the Mrs) so I'll have to bask in this one. Looks like Amazon is down as I called it because of not meeting market expectations. I thought it was a great result but just shows how overextended they were to actually drop because those are some impressive YoY results.

Anywho, I had my cash parked for a bit this year so I'm quite delighted to see a sale on the market going on locally. There's been no change in fundamentals in most of the stocks but they are down quite solidly and I expect on Monday it will drop after the Friday in the states. We should start seeing some good sales on if it does drop more, time to keep my eyes peeled.

[horus1]

Been picking of onway down. If you look at graphs I thought bottom ,stable patch would be about 8400 or so on NZ index. We are getting there now.

[Leftfield]

How I learned to love a good 'downturn' in the stock market. Timely reading for those sweating the current downturn.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/how-i-learned-to-love-a-good-downturn-in-the-stock-market/2018/10/26/266d5b56-d70d-11e8-83a2-d1c3da28d6b6_story.html?utm_term=.53a2dcd5c906

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/26/global-stock-markets-set-for-worst-losing-streak-for-five-years

[Tomtom]

I'm happy to wait and see what happens, that old saying about falling knives comes to mind. Can't make my mind up as to if this'll become a bear market.

[Leftfield]

I'm happy to wait and see what happens, that old saying about falling knives comes to mind. Can't make my mind up as to if this'll become a bear market.

T/A can prove invaluable. The idea is to catch the end of a trend, not knives ;)

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/the-stock-market-loses-13percent-in-a-correction-on-average-if-it-doesnt-turn-into-a-bear-market.html

[blackcap]

Interesting day coming up. Dow down over 500 points off its highs for the day so far, 2 hours to go, will it bounce back or continue its slide?

10 mins later make that 600 points off its highs.

Now more than 700 points off its highs. Its like a derailed train at the moment.

10 mins after that update, make that 800 off its highs. Net down 490 at the moment.

And just like that back to zero change.

[bull....]

Interesting day coming up. Dow down over 500 points off its highs for the day so far, 2 hours to go, will it bounce back or continue its slide?

10 mins later make that 600 points off its highs.

this is really bearish price action

[Bobdn]

Very good day for US bank shares

[bull....]

the bull run from 2016 is dead , but the bull from 2009 is still intact , my analysis shows markets could have 20% corrections and still be in the bull from 2009. im watching all the potential double tops on us indices for potential crash warnings though. nz has had a double top too and potentially faces a much more severe crash than other markets i believe due to liquidity issues. funds facing redemption will crash prices as they have to sell into declining liquidity. hopefully it doesnt happen but it is a big red flag if it does.

[bull....]

Interesting day coming up. Dow down over 500 points off its highs for the day so far, 2 hours to go, will it bounce back or continue its slide?

10 mins later make that 600 points off its highs.

Now more than 700 points off its highs. Its like a derailed train at the moment.

10 mins after that update, make that 800 off its highs. Net down 490 at the moment.

wonder if we will get a 1000 pt turna round? mid terms coming up if trump loses i reckon a crash catayst it will be,

[winner69]

wonder if we will get a 1000 pt turna round? mid terms coming up if trump loses i reckon a crash catayst it will be,

Amazing stuff eh

[BlackPeter]

wonder if we will get a 1000 pt turna round? mid terms coming up if trump loses i reckon a crash catayst it will be,

Don't know what a "catayst" is ... but it sounds that you think we reallly need to keep a corrupt crook in office to inflate share prices a bit more before they crash. Sad.

I'd take my chances ...

[winner69]

We need the corporate buybacks to recommence

[blackcap]

wonder if we will get a 1000 pt turna round? mid terms coming up if trump loses i reckon a crash catayst it will be,

It got to over 900 points, but now the Dow is almost in positive territory. Interesting price action that is for sure.

[Sideshow Bob]

Don't know what a "catayst" is ... but it sounds that you think we reallly need to keep a corrupt crook in office to inflate share prices a bit more before they crash. Sad.

I'd take my chances ...

The Don took all the credit for the rise in the sharemarket since he took office. I wonder if he will take the blame for the drops...…

Yeah Nah.

[blackcap]

The Don took all the credit for the rise in the sharemarket since he took office. I wonder if he will take the blame for the drops...…

Yeah Nah.

He can still take credit. Even at these levels the Dow is still up 36% since the Don took office. Not a bad return for less than 2 years.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Raises the questions:

If Trump loses Congress and the House of Reps what happens to the markets Up or down and by what %
If loses one Up or down

If wins both Up or down
If wins one Up of down

[blackcap]

Raises the questions:

If Trump loses Congress and the House of Reps what happens to the markets Up or down and by what %
If loses one Up or down

If wins both Up or down
If wins one Up of down

Interesting questions. The markets have the following chances:

Democrats win Senate, 6.4%, Repubs win Senate with majority 78%, No majority 15.6%
Democrats win House , 62.5% Repubs win House 37%, No Majority .5%

www.betfair.com

[BlackPeter]

He can still take credit. Even at these levels the Dow is still up 36% since the Don took office. Not a bad return for less than 2 years.

Return is income minus cost. Don did cost us a united Western alliance, he did cost America its unity and internal peace. He is destroying the international trade system and he did take integrity and honesty out of his office. Donald Trump is to the Western democracies what acid is to an engine when mixed with of engine oil.

I would not call this a win ... but each to their own.

And obviously - he started with a booming economical engine inherited by Obama, but even if you assume that Don is responsible for this "gain" - these 36% do come dear indeed. What is for you the price of freedom, democracy, integrity and a legal system based on laws instead of some autocrats personal desires?

Do you not share these values - or are you really happy to sell them out that cheap?

[blackcap]

Return is income minus cost. Don did cost us a united Western alliance, he did cost America its unity and internal peace. He is destroying the international trade system and he did take integrity and honesty out of his office. Donald Trump is to the Western democracies what acid is to an engine when mixed with of engine oil.

I would not call this a win ... but each to their own.

And obviously - he started with a booming economical engine inherited by Obama, but even if you assume that Don is responsible for this "gain" - these 36% do come dear indeed. What is for you the price of freedom, democracy, integrity and a legal system based on laws instead of some autocrats personal desires?

Do you not share these values - or are you really happy to sell them out that cheap?

I would not be claiming gains on the stock market for starters. The market is forward looking but also runs counter cyclically to the economy. The US economy is booming at the moment and because of this they are looking to raise rates. This is negative for the market go figure. But either way taking credit for a stock market is fraught with danger. That said if you are going to claim credit for it then you can keep doing so even if there are a few negative blips on the way.
Stop being such a sourpuss BP. Freedom, democracy, integrity...unity, internal peace.... really. Obama what the one that created all this internal unrest, the Don is the outcome of the cancer that Obama spread with his divisiveness. Luckily Obama had no power with Congress and the Don has pretty much obliterated everything (in 2 short years) that Obama achieved in 8.

Anyway that was a bit off topic. What will the NZ and Aussie markets do today after the turmoil on the US xchanges? It will be interesting to see how China reacts to the additional tariffs that have been "threatened" depending on how Trump's meeting with Xi goes.

[Joshuatree]

Sugar in the petrol is my analogy of trumpf. The debt mountain is growing bigger is the endgame. He is again inciting his devotees to attack anyone who opposes him, he is a megalomaniac, extreme narcissist of the highest order, if he could eliminate the media, any opposition ,like the saudis, putin and Kim does he would, he trys to virtually and is now inciting his gormless power seeking devotees to do the same. It shows how rotten things are over there with such a % of the population feeling so disempowered that they gravitate to such a dumbing down wanna be dicktator attempting to regress them to a primitive all for one cave dwelling tribe savagery akin to an Inca ruler.

[bull....]

Don't know what a "catayst" is ... but it sounds that you think we reallly need to keep a corrupt crook in office to inflate share prices a bit more before they crash. Sad.

I'd take my chances ...

plenty of crooks in office in nz too.

[BlackPeter]

plenty of crooks in office in nz too.

Sure - but this is like comparing some pity pocket thieves with a killer swad of the Russian Mafia ...

both are crooks - right?

[Pixelator]

Raises the questions:

If Trump loses Congress and the House of Reps what happens to the markets Up or down and by what %
If loses one Up or down

If wins both Up or down
If wins one Up of down



Any curve balls that congress/ senate throw at Trump, he can bat away with a veto...

[root]

We are going to be testing some very serious support / resistance levels in the near future for the US markets if this keeps up. That will tell us more about what's going on. The stay cashed up or back in question looms.

[Pixelator]

Interesting questions. The markets have the following chances:

Democrats win Senate, 6.4%, Repubs win Senate with majority 78%, No majority 15.6%


www.betfair.com (http://www.betfair.com)

So a majority of American people voting the Republicans back in the Senate, is that because of Trump or in spite of him?

[Lego_Man]

Return is income minus cost. Don did cost us a united Western alliance, he did cost America its unity and internal peace. He is destroying the international trade system and he did take integrity and honesty out of his office. Donald Trump is to the Western democracies what acid is to an engine when mixed with of engine oil.

I would not call this a win ... but each to their own.

And obviously - he started with a booming economical engine inherited by Obama, but even if you assume that Don is responsible for this "gain" - these 36% do come dear indeed. What is for you the price of freedom, democracy, integrity and a legal system based on laws instead of some autocrats personal desires?

Do you not share these values - or are you really happy to sell them out that cheap?

I'd like you to name some autocratic actions of Trump (as distinct from actions you simply disagree with). Thus far he looks to have acted withing his powers, in fact it's impossible by definition for him to transgress these powers.

The global trade system over the past 20 years has primarily served the interests of 3rd world workers and western corporate shareholders. I assume you fall into the latter category, so it's natural you're pleased with the results. Can make a value judgement on that if you like, but there's now bipartisan consensus that China has being taking the piss with its trade practices. Trump won election on a nativist platform aiming to restore the dignity of the US working class, and that's what he's doing.

As for Western alliances, another redundant entity based on cold war bogeymen, designed to provide a captive market for arms sales. What is the actual point of NATO now? Yes, Russia has a lot of nukes, but we already knew that. Their population though is half that of the EU and their conventional military far less numerous. Hardly a legitimate threat. The Europeans have the technology and the population to implement sufficient deterrents, without needing to load up their territory with American men and equipment. I'd also argue that the eastward expansion of NATO has pointlessly disturbed Russia's sphere of influence and violated past understanding.

America crippled itself under mainstream neocons (of both Dem and Republican) by pointlessly invading countries and chasing jihadis since 2001, while other countries caught up in conventional military tech and soft power. No wonder the establishment is discredited.

Lastly, as Trump himself pointed out well, Obama's economy was a sugar high based on zero interest rates and QE. He did nothing to improve fundamentals, whereas at least Trump has had a crack.

[blackcap]

So a majority of American people voting the Republicans back in the Senate, is that because of Trump or in spite of him?

The senate map favours the republicans this mid-term. That is pretty much it. They are not really having to defend many seats while the Dems do.
O and there are some terrible candidates standing for the Democrats, like Sinema in Arizona. She is purporting to be a conservative Dem, but has publicly stated that she would not mind US people supporting/joining the Taleban, that kind of thing.

[BlackPeter]

So a majority of American people voting the Republicans back in the Senate, is that because of Trump or in spite of him?

It is not what the majority of the American people do, but a markets prediction what a certain percentage of the American people who bother to cast their votes in a system tilted against Democrates might do.

Majority of the American people (even of the people who bother to vote) is clearly against Trump.

Last election - Tump had 46% of the casted votes (his opponent more than 48%) ... and voter turnout was 58% - i.e. 26.7% of elegible voters voted for the corrupt liar. Most Americans are decent people, but unfortunately - too many of them don't bother to vote and the system is as corrupt as its current president.

System still less fair for the midterms - large and densely populated Democratic states have two senate seats - as have small and hardly populated republican states. How is this fair? One man one vote ...?

[Pixelator]

It is not what the majority of the American people do, but a markets prediction what a certain percentage of the American people who bother to cast their votes in a system tilted against Democrates might do.

Majority of the American people (even of the people who bother to vote) is clearly against Trump.

Last election - Tump had 46% of the casted votes (his opponent more than 48%) ... and voter turnout was 58% - i.e. 26.7% of elegible voters voted for the corrupt liar. Most Americans are decent people, but unfortunately - too many of them don't bother to vote and the system is as corrupt as its current president.

System still less fair for the midterms - large and densely populated Democratic states have two senate seats - as have small and hardly populated republican states. How is this fair? One man one vote ...?


WinnyFirst with 7% of the vote now calling most of the shots....not much different...still rather be in NZ though :)

[BlackPeter]

The senate map favours the republicans this mid-term. That is pretty much it. They are not really having to defend many seats while the Dems do.
O and there are some terrible candidates standing for the Democrats, like Sinema in Arizona. She is purporting to be a conservative Dem, but has publicly stated that she would not mind US people supporting/joining the Taleban, that kind of thing.

OK - I think we should move this discussion to the Trump thread. However - you should do a bit more research before you spread Trumps fake news:

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/10/sinemas-taliban-comment-in-context/

The statement was totally our of context. It is Trump supporting the crooks (i.e. in Saudi Arabia).

[peat]

OK - I think we should move this discussion to the Trump thread.

Hallelujah Brother.

Tho I did laugh at someone saying Obama was divisive.
And I think you, JoshuaTree might have insulted the Inca's

[Lego_Man]

System still less fair for the midterms - large and densely populated Democratic states have two senate seats - as have small and hardly populated republican states. How is this fair? One man one vote ...?

If you view the USA as a federation of pseudo-sovereign states, which is how their history has evolved, it makes sense. It was never conceived of as a unitary state to be dominated by both coasts.

The House of Representatives is the broadly population-weighted representative body.
The Senate represents the individual states.
The President sits somewhere in the middle, due to the vagaries of the Electoral College system.

States are supposed to govern themselves, the Federal Government is supposed to be both constrained in power, and acceptable to the highest proportion of states, rather than the highest proportion of the US population.

Ironically for the Progressives, it's an argument for a state's rights/constitutionalist approach, which they have historically tended to oppose. California liberals can live in a progressive paradise of their own if they want. The less power Congress and the President have, the less they can interfere with their way of life.

[Blue Skies]

If you view the USA as a federation of pseudo-sovereign states, which is how their history has evolved, it makes sense. It was never conceived of as a unitary state to be dominated by both coasts.

The House of Representatives is the broadly population-weighted representative body.
The Senate represents the individual states.
The President sits somewhere in the middle, due to the vagaries of the Electoral College system.

States are supposed to govern themselves, the Federal Government is supposed to be both constrained in power, and acceptable to the highest proportion of states, rather than the highest proportion of the US population.

Ironically for the Progressives, it's an argument for a state's rights/constitutionalist approach, which they have historically tended to oppose. California liberals can live in a progressive paradise of their own if they want. The less power Congress and the President have, the less they can interfere with their way of life.



To that very good summary, as I understand it i'ld add, the founding fathers wanted to ensure democracy would extend to all, not just the powerful, & those lesser populated states would also have an equal voice in govt, hence equal representation.
If representation was based purely on population, the sparsely populated states would have little representation & consequently politicians would never even bother to visit them or listen to their issues.

Works well in theory but as it turns out, not so well in practice with the tail wagging the dog.

[BlackPeter]

I'd like you to name some autocratic actions of Trump (as distinct from actions you simply disagree with). Thus far he looks to have acted withing his powers, in fact it's impossible by definition for him to transgress these powers.

The global trade system over the past 20 years has primarily served the interests of 3rd world workers and western corporate shareholders. I assume you fall into the latter category, so it's natural you're pleased with the results. Can make a value judgement on that if you like, but there's now bipartisan consensus that China has being taking the piss with its trade practices. Trump won election on a nativist platform aiming to restore the dignity of the US working class, and that's what he's doing.

As for Western alliances, another redundant entity based on cold war bogeymen, designed to provide a captive market for arms sales. What is the actual point of NATO now? Yes, Russia has a lot of nukes, but we already knew that. Their population though is half that of the EU and their conventional military far less numerous. Hardly a legitimate threat. The Europeans have the technology and the population to implement sufficient deterrents, without needing to load up their territory with American men and equipment. I'd also argue that the eastward expansion of NATO has pointlessly disturbed Russia's sphere of influence and violated past understanding.

America crippled itself under mainstream neocons (of both Dem and Republican) by pointlessly invading countries and chasing jihadis since 2001, while other countries caught up in conventional military tech and soft power. No wonder the establishment is discredited.

Lastly, as Trump himself pointed out well, Obama's economy was a sugar high based on zero interest rates and QE. He did nothing to improve fundamentals, whereas at least Trump has had a crack.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10817-Donald-Trump-How-low-can-you-go&p=735681&viewfull=1#post735681

[blackcap]

Hallelujah Brother.

Tho I did laugh at someone saying Obama was divisive.
And I think you, JoshuaTree might have insulted the Inca's

That may have been me. I see that 8 years of Obama brought....? I stand by my comment that Obama was divisive. Demonstratively so!
I think it was Obama that also said, "elections have consequences". At least he was prophetic.

Anyway back to the markets. Early trade has the Dow up again 170 odd points. But if the last few weeks are anything to go by, that means nothing. I wonder if we are seeing the beginning of a bear. Not convinced fully yet, there is too much cash swirling around.

[couta1]

That may have been me. I see that 8 years of Obama brought....? I stand by my comment that Obama was divisive. Demonstratively so!
I think it was Obama that also said, "elections have consequences". At least he was prophetic.

Anyway back to the markets. Early trade has the Dow up again 170 odd points. But if the last few weeks are anything to go by, that means nothing. I wonder if we are seeing the beginning of a bear. Not convinced fully yet, there is too much cash swirling around. Obama was like a politically correct dish cloth.Lol

[Blue Skies]

Last day of Red October, could be last chance to pick up some XXL bargains. (I see shorters loosing big time on ATM)

[arc]

Any bets on the magnitude of the Dead cat bounce

[BlackPeter]

Any bets on the magnitude of the Dead cat bounce

What are the bets that the cat is still alive?

I think there is a good chance ... the US economic engine is still humming - and the uncertainties of the US midterms will be over in a week. Remember - markets don't care about the outcome, they just hate uncertainty! It won't matter for markets who is winning ... just that the election is over counts!

[peat]

Any bets on the magnitude of the Dead cat bounce

9180 should be the highest point IF (as BlackPeter questions) it is a dead cat bounce

10112

[Maverick]

9180 should be the highest point IF (as BlackPeter questions) it is a dead cat bounce

10112
As far as my humble opinion goes , this is not a dead cat bounce. Globally there is just too much money still freely flowing around for this to be "the big one". The US 10 year treasury rates are still (just ) above the 1 and 2 year rates. Things are starting to look a bit pale but there's still enough cashflow health to easily last another year or so yet. The recent NZ general share price 6% dip is just a healthy correction to give the NZ crowd just what they were wanting. Lets all move onto Harry and Megan visiting now that the Wall st "crash" has been dealt with.

The share prices of just about all NZ shares have been caught in a downdraught compared to 6 months ago. Again , in my humble opinion some have been recently hit a bit too hard such as OCA, SUM, HLG. These will no doubt raise to their proper values over time. The likes of GXH, FBL, AIR and THL are now where they always should have been.

I`m thinking the necessary and healthy correction is now complete. My money is on the show carrying on for some time yet.

[Lewylewylewy]

Agreed, there is a looot of money floating around, which needs to go somewhere.

There are still some very real looming threats hanging over, though.

[bull....]

nice bounces world wide from obvious extreme oversold levels , see what happens might be just a reaction rally , time will tell as they say. im expecting traders take bounce profits soon

[peat]

nice bounces world wide from obvious extreme oversold levels , see what happens might be just a reaction rally , time will tell as they say. im expecting traders take bounce profits soon

SPX500 fell 34 points a few hours ago so yeh a wave has started on some scale.

I think the correction might take a while to get over. By a while I mean at least a few months, maybe even six.
I got presented a survey on my reaction to this months events asking me whether they had changed my investment strategy. I concluded that they had a little, but not that much really.
Maybe it is time for more caution by those who are being quite reckless?

[Baa_Baa]

SPX500 fell 34 points a few hours ago so yeh a wave has started on some scale.

I think the correction might take a while to get over. By a while I mean at least a few months, maybe even six.
I got presented a survey on my reaction to this months events asking me whether they had changed my investment strategy. I concluded that they had a little, but not that much really.
Maybe it is time for more caution by those who are being quite reckless?

Take it day by day, imo. It's not the causal. It's the effect. The nimble are prevalent and the short term is good for locking in profits or buying depending on ones viewpoint and circumstances.

[bull....]

got our profit taking now on those jobs numbers

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-created-250000-jobs-in-oct-vs-190000-jobs-expected.html

very strong numbers will mean the fed will keep raising rates.

the s&p 500 topped out at resistance around 2745 and also at the top of our declining trend channel from the highs. would need to go back above 2745 for me to think it wont go back to the test the lows soon.

[Bjauck]

Obama was like a politically correct dish cloth.Lol Dish cloths always have a good use. You always need a dishcloth for cleaning. You don’t always eat or need whatever created the mess in the first place!

[bull....]

major event risk next week with the mid terms in the us

my thoughts

market thinks split house/ senate - market falls initially

trump wins everything - major rally

democrats win everything - major market fall

[BlackPeter]

major event risk next week with the mid terms in the us

my thoughts

market thinks split house/ senate - market falls initially

trump wins everything - major rally

democrats win everything - major market fall

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.

[blackcap]

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.

I think you are suffering from TDS BP.

That said, markets do like certainty and not uncertainty. But the huge jobs numbers out last night certainly raised the risk that interest rates would rise again.

Currently about a 1 in 6 chance Dems win Senate, 2 in 3 chance they take house. (according to financial markets)

[Blue Skies]

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.


Just been talking to friends who live in DC. They say the whole place feels like a powder keg ready to blow up. Countries so divided, so much tension. Security way way tighter, Secret Service Police on foot, bikes, cars everywhere, even how close the public can get to the White House has been pushed much further back, first time they've ever felt uncomfortable in DC. I thought things would calm down after Nov 6, but now not so sure.
Would not be good for the markets if outcome sparked some major civil unrest. Trump surely the most divisive president in history.

[arc]

And it continues, crime-coin enables f*** examples of humanity to do whatever... With obscurity and immunity.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/107374085/Canterbury-man-loses-320k-in-year-long-bitcoin-scam?rm=m

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/108267606/Sextortion-scammers-hold-shamed-Kiwis-to-ransom-online

[drcjp]

Buffett up to his old election cycle tricks (https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-repurchases-more-than-900-million-of-stock-1541248428) again. This time mid-terms. What does the canny old fox know?

[BlackPeter]

Buffett up to his old election cycle tricks (https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-repurchases-more-than-900-million-of-stock-1541248428) again. This time mid-terms. What does the canny old fox know?

He might have realised that - no matter what the outcome of the elections - uncertainty will be lower after it (because people will know the outcome). Markets hate uncertainty - and prefer certainty. Prices will go up as soon as the results are announced :t_up:.

Apart from that - the more likley outcome of the elections is that Trump will be checked by a democratic house. This will be good for markets - and raining into his counterproductive trade wars.

[bull....]

He might have realised that - no matter what the outcome of the elections - uncertainty will be lower after it (because people will know the outcome). Markets hate uncertainty - and prefer certainty. Prices will go up as soon as the results are announced :t_up:.

Apart from that - the more likley outcome of the elections is that Trump will be checked by a democratic house. This will be good for markets - and raining into his counterproductive trade wars.


actually even if trump loses the house he still retains executive authority over foreign policy hence trade wars so uncertainty is not removed

[BlackPeter]

actually even if trump loses the house he still retains executive authority over foreign policy hence trade wars so uncertainty is not removed

Just watch the house removing the president's powers - wouldn't this be fun? Anyway better given that this Potus is a lying crook.

President has only authority over foreign politics as long as he does not break laws ... house just needs to write these laws.

[bull....]

Just watch the house removing the president's powers - wouldn't this be fun? Anyway better given that this Potus is a lying crook.

President has only authority over foreign politics as long as he does not break laws ... house just needs to write these laws.

democrat win means domestic stuff may be reined in , budget ceiling gridlocks , more russia investigations no more tax cuts or regulation business friendly stuff. hardly good stuff for the market. if trump is restrained domestically he might want to focus more on the china ... he likes being in the news

[blackcap]

democrat win means domestic stuff may be reined in , budget ceiling gridlocks , more russia investigations no more tax cuts or regulation business friendly stuff. hardly good stuff for the market. if trump is restrained domestically he might want to focus more on the china ... he likes being in the news

Luckily there is about a 1 in 3 chance that the republicans keep the house. Not out of the question.

[BlackPeter]

democrat win means domestic stuff may be reined in , budget ceiling gridlocks , more russia investigations no more tax cuts or regulation business friendly stuff. hardly good stuff for the market. if trump is restrained domestically he might want to focus more on the china ... he likes being in the news

You mean Democrats would do to Trump what Republicans did to Obama? Oh, no ... But than - a bit of spending discipline for the money waster and debtmaker in chief - what possibly could be wrong about that?

Anybody noticing the sweat-foul smell of hypocricy if Republicans are crying foul about spending discipline, but than - playing the victim is the only role school yard bullies really good at - isn't it?

Americans learned by now that the only thing the GoP really wants is to make the ultra rich still richer and get the poor and the middle class to pay with their health and too often even with their lifes.

Trumps trying to destroy Obamacare is deeply unpopluar and so is Trumps bullying.

You still support this crook?

[bull....]

You mean Democrats would do to Trump what Republicans did to Obama? Oh, no ... But than - a bit of spending discipline for the money waster and debtmaker in chief - what possibly could be wrong about that?

Anybody noticing the sweat-foul smell of hypocricy if Republicans are crying foul about spending discipline, but than - playing the victim is the only role school yard bullies really good at - isn't it?

Americans learned by now that the only thing the GoP really wants is to make the ultra rich still richer and get the poor and the middle class to pay with their health and too often even with their lifes.

Trumps trying to destroy Obamacare is deeply unpopluar and so is Trumps bullying.

You still support this crook?

i try to leave out opinions about individuals in my investing it clouds my judgement. im only interested in working out likely impacts on the markets

[couta1]

i try to leave out opinions about individuals in my investing it clouds my judgement. im only interested in working out likely impacts on the markets Yes exactly, whether you like Trump or not he is the elected President and you just have to suck it up.PS-Im glad Clinton is not in power.

[BlackPeter]

i try to leave out opinions about individuals in my investing it clouds my judgement. im only interested in working out likely impacts on the markets

Good - and you even talk about "investments", not just "day trades".

As an investor you should worry about the sustainablility of your investment, not just about what hype might do to the share price over the next couple of days or weeks / months.

Blowing up an already absolutely irresponsible budget debt is not sustainable. Trump is runnig the economy above the cliff into the ground.

Trade barriers are damaging to everybody. Trump is creating more and more of them.

Inequality is bad for healthy economies. Trump is making the rich people much richer and he sucks whatever the poor people have left out of them.

Any sensible investor needs to support the Democrates (even the Koch brothers do) - they are the only party which is still able to stop Trump running the world economy into the ground!

[blackcap]

Inequality is bad for healthy economies. Trump is making the rich people much richer and he sucks whatever the poor people have left out of them.



Unemployment is at a 18 year lows and wages grew at 2.9%

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-august-2018-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

Sounds like that is pretty good for all people including the poor.

[BlackPeter]

Unemployment is at a 18 year lows and wages grew at 2.9%

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-august-2018-2018-9?r=US&IR=T

Sounds like that is pretty good for all people including the poor.

Not really - the statistics is distorted by the high number of part time minimum wage jobs. Not enough money to live, but too much to die.

Never before in the US history had that many old people to file for bankruptcy:

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/older-americans-are-filing-for-bankruptcy-during-retirement-2018-8

Main reasons: bad health and Trump scrapped their previous insurance entitlements. This is typically the last stop for them before they die due to a curable desease where they can't afford to pay for the doctor. Obviously - as well a strategy to reduce the number of unemployed and poor people.

Make poor Americans die earlier again ...

[blackcap]

For those of you interested in chances and implication on the market... (give or take a few rounding errors)

Chance of Republicans holding both house and senate is 30%
Chance of Democrats winning both house and senate is 11%
Chance of Republican Senate and Democrat house is 53%
Chance of Democrat Senate and Republican House is 6%

betfair.com

[Miway]

For those of you interested in chances and implication on the market... (give or take a few rounding errors)

Chance of Republicans holding both house and senate is 30%
Chance of Democrats winning both house and senate is 11%
Chance of Republican Senate and Democrat house is 53%
Chance of Democrat Senate and Republican House is 6%

betfair.com
Take those figures with a grain of salt if
last election odds anything to go by.

[blackcap]

Take those figures with a grain of salt if
last election odds anything to go by.

It's just what the market is saying. The real market, like the $ one. Last election the market still gave Trump a 1 in 6 chance to win, the MSM gave him a 1 in 20 chance to win. The market was closer. The market is where real $ are being bet and has no partisan lean either way. I would rather trust the market than the polls and or the media.
That said the market is often wrong, it got Brexit spectacularly wrong, and that is in part I guess the market is in some way driven by the polls and the media as well. Off course taking those figures with a grain of salt, but it shows all 4 options are very possible. SA had a 1 in 14 chance of beating NZ in the last test and that came in. The market got that very wrong too.

[moka]

Interesting chart showing margin debt diverging from S&P 500 in October.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/31/market-is-showing-a-similar-pattern-to-peaks-in-2000-and-2007-bofaml.html?&qsearchterm=margin%20debt

“A technical signal bubbling underneath the roiled market's surface could portend more pain for stocks, BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier says. Contracting margin debt coinciding with a market peak suggests rising risk-off sentiment.
A similar setup was seen before the most significant market crashes of this century”.

[bull....]

mid terms were a non event. see we are hitting the 61.8% retracement level from the most recent low in this rally now

[mondograss]

Maybe, but the outcome was what was expected which business tends to find encouraging. There will be more in the way of checks on Trumps more irrational decisions, but not total paralysis.

[bull....]

this is a worry

the market rebound in november is to a large extent due only to company buy backs

The bull market's biggest buyer is back — companies are buying back stock at a record pace this month
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/the-bull-markets-biggest-buying-force-is-back-in-record-amounts-this-month.html

suggests the markets on quick sand when the buy backs finish

[Aaron]

If interest rates stay low buybacks could carry on for a long time. I have heard buy-backs improve earnings per share and help CEO performance bonuses but I don't see why a company buys out its owners. If it has excess cash just pay a dividend. I suppose if things turn sour in the financial world there will be a lot of shares re-issued to recapitalise like in the GFC. Do you think company buybacks make sense to anyone other than company management?

[blackcap]

If interest rates stay low buybacks could carry on for a long time. I have heard buy-backs improve earnings per share and help CEO performance bonuses but I don't see why a company buys out its owners. If it has excess cash just pay a dividend. I suppose if things turn sour in the financial world there will be a lot of shares re-issued to recapitalise like in the GFC. Do you think company buybacks make sense to anyone other than company management?

Buybacks make a lot of sense in certain circumstances. I am not sure if you are talking from a NZ or global perspective. But in NZ, if I hold shares in a company that has no imputation credits to impart, but has plenty of cash, I do not want them paying me a dividend. This would be destroying shareholder wealth. I would rather they complete a buy back. Hope that makes sense.

[winner69]

buybacks v corporate debt

Just makes equities scarcer ....usually good

[Scrunch]

Do you think company buybacks make sense to anyone other than company management?

Absolutely if you can't return tax efficiently return cash to shareholders through dividends which is my understanding of the situation in the US.

Say you buy back 5% of the shares on issue and retain unchanged profitability you just achieved 5% eps growth for the remaining shareholders.

[winner69]

Absolutely if you can't return tax efficiently return cash to shareholders through dividends which is my understanding of the situation in the US.

Say you buy back 5% of the shares on issue and retain unchanged profitability you just achieved 5% eps growth for the remaining shareholders.

....5.3% eps growth on that logic .....but what if they borrowed to fund the buyback

[kiwico]

The other aspect of share buy backs is the timing of them as companies seem to be much better at buying their shares when the share price is high rather than than when they look cheap.

[Scrunch]

....5.3% eps growth on that logic .....but what if they borrowed to fund the buyback

If you are profitable and trading on a pe of 15-20 and paying a minimal dividend the cash for the buyback could come from operations leaving cash levels at the end of the year similar to those at the start.

[winner69]

If you are profitable and trading on a pe of 15-20 and paying a minimal dividend the cash for the buyback could come from operations leaving cash levels at the end of the year similar to those at the start.

Alright in theory but many buy backs are debt funded

Additionally a lot of buybacks are done merely to transfer stock from outside shareholders to corporate insiders that have executive stock and option plans.

[winner69]

Some describe buybacks as the ‘New Magic Beans’

[Scrunch]

Alright in theory but many buy backs are debt funded

Additionally a lot of buybacks are done merely to transfer stock from outside shareholders to corporate insiders that have executive stock and option plans.

Buybacks to neutralise shares on issue effects of bloated senior mgmt compensation isn't a bad thing either. It removes the dilution effect that would otherwise occur as shares on issue increase.

Bloated senior mgmt option schemes, that's a different issue .....

[Aaron]

Buybacks make a lot of sense in certain circumstances. I am not sure if you are talking from a NZ or global perspective. But in NZ, if I hold shares in a company that has no imputation credits to impart, but has plenty of cash, I do not want them paying me a dividend. This would be destroying shareholder wealth. I would rather they complete a buy back. Hope that makes sense.
Thanks for that.
Not sure how they would get plenty of cash without paying tax, possibly tax free capital gains on land or businesses sold. You need to choose to sell your shares to benefit from a share buyback. As to destroying wealth either dividend or buying back shares on market will reduce the company bank account. I guess the buyback is a return of capital and not taxable in the hands of the shareholder which might make sense if a company has sold off a business and is now smaller and has excess cash it can't invest elsewhere.

I will have to keep my eyes open for an example of a buyback in NZ and see if the reasoning behind it stacks up. I know some of the power companies were buying back shares but wouldn't they be better reducing debt. Borrowing to buy back shares doesn't seem sensible. The argument that debt funding is cheaper doesn't make sense as the shareholders are the owners.
I guess in this day and age a strong balance sheet is just an opportunity for an investment company to buy up the company, milk it for all its worth and sell it back with a public listing and a lot more debt.

Looking forward to more Black Mondays in the near future.

[mikeybycrikey]

Alright in theory but many buy backs are debt funded

I don't know more generally but I know Apple's share buybacks were largely debt funded but, yet again, that was for tax reasons. Much of their cash was outside the US and they would've needed to pay 35% tax to bring it into the country. Instead they borrowed money and waited for the inevitable tax amnesty. And with low interest rates, the cost of borrowing was fairly low.

[blackcap]

Thanks for that.
Not sure how they would get plenty of cash without paying tax, possibly tax free capital gains on land or businesses sold. You need to choose to sell your shares to benefit from a share buyback. As to destroying wealth either dividend or buying back shares on market will reduce the company bank account. I guess the buyback is a return of capital and not taxable in the hands of the shareholder which might make sense if a company has sold off a business and is now smaller and has excess cash it can't invest elsewhere.

I will have to keep my eyes open for an example of a buyback in NZ and see if the reasoning behind it stacks up. I know some of the power companies were buying back shares.

No problems. I know of a company that has no imputation credits, but they have a lot more cash than profits. They are cash flow positive now but make losses most years because of high depreciation due to their business model being capital intensive. At the recent AGM of NWF they talked about Capital management initiatives. There was a question of dividends posed from the floor. The directors said it would be wrong to pay dividends out of free cash flow because they could not attach imputation credits and that would not be fair to shareholders. But they did say there were other ways for returning cash to investors and the inference was a buy back of shares. It really made sense to me.

[Scrunch]

Sometimes companies sell a business unit and do a pro-rata buyback. It acts a lot like a large dividend but at the end of it the share price may remain at similar levels and you have less shares and no tax to pay as it's a capital distribution. A big special div lowers the share price but you retain all the shares and pay tax on the div if it's not imputed. Both can have the same market value of your shares after the payment.

[winner69]

from hedgeye.com

[Joshuatree]

Mmmmh not good

"just like that, the region’s equity benchmark erased weekly gains and is now heading for a sixth slide in seven weeks, only worsening the wipeout that already erased $4.3 trillion of market value this year."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...an-stocks-is-getting-deeper?srnd=premium-asia (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-09/now-that-4-3-trillion-wipeout-in-asian-stocks-is-getting-deeper?srnd=premium-asia)

[bull....]

mid terms were a non event. see we are hitting the 61.8% retracement level from the most recent low in this rally now

pivoted down nicely from the 61% level. notice most markets have only shown the rally to be a retracement at this stage from oversold levels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-09/now-that-4-3-trillion-wipeout-in-asian-stocks-is-getting-deeper?srnd=premium-asia

[winner69]

No idea whether this is going to happen but some nice charts

Goldman Calls It: "Stocks May Be About To Enter A Sustained Bear Market"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-09/goldman-calls-it-stocks-could-be-about-enter-sustained-bear-market

[BlackPeter]

No idea whether this is going to happen but some nice charts

Goldman Calls It: "Stocks May Be About To Enter A Sustained Bear Market"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-09/goldman-calls-it-stocks-could-be-about-enter-sustained-bear-market

Absolutely - as soon as the majority of investors believe that they are in a bear market they create one for everybody. Only a question of time.

[bull....]

No idea whether this is going to happen but some nice charts

Goldman Calls It: "Stocks May Be About To Enter A Sustained Bear Market"

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-09/goldman-calls-it-stocks-could-be-about-enter-sustained-bear-market

goldmans bull / bear index has proved quite accurate in past down turns

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-wrestle-with-a-glut-of-bearish-signs-as-oil-prices-plunge-2018-11-10

dont know if they curve fit the data though?

[bull....]

bank of america talking about the 61% level i was referring too , retest of the lows coming they think too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/s-p-500-may-test-october-lows-as-bounce-fails-again-bofa-says?srnd=premium-asia

[BlackPeter]

bank of america talking about the 61% level i was referring too , retest of the lows coming they think too

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/s-p-500-may-test-october-lows-as-bounce-fails-again-bofa-says?srnd=premium-asia

LOL - couldn't resist:


Meanwhile, market breadth and sentiment suggest bulls have yet to give up, and that a bottom has been set.

Surely - they can't mean our bull? He gave up and turned bear a long time ago ...

But anyway - the bearmarket will come as soon as bull and his little helpers converted the majority of market participants.

Its all up to us, guys ...

[couta1]

LOL - couldn't resist:



Surely - they can't mean our bull? He gave up and turned bear a long time ago ...

But anyway - the bearmarket will come as soon as bull and his little helpers converted the majority of market participants.

Its all up to us, guys ... Que Sera Sera.

[bull....]

LOL - couldn't resist:



Surely - they can't mean our bull? He gave up and turned bear a long time ago ...

But anyway - the bearmarket will come as soon as bull and his little helpers converted the majority of market participants.

Its all up to us, guys ...

lol bp so cynical as usual

[BlackPeter]

lol bp so cynical as usual

If you call it cynical to state the facts, than you are right :);

[bull....]

If you call it cynical to state the facts, than you are right :);

cramer knows everything bp

Cramer: 'We are at war against the Chinese,' and it's not just over trade
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/cramer-warns-us-at-war-against-the-chinese-and-not-just-over-trade.html

US crude falls for 11th straight session, its longest losing streak on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-and-opec-in-focus.html

[bull....]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-12/why-debt-will-be-the-cause-of-the-next-stock-market-jolt/10486554?section=business

good story about buybacks and debt

[BlackPeter]

cramer knows everything bp

Cramer: 'We are at war against the Chinese,' and it's not just over trade
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/cramer-warns-us-at-war-against-the-chinese-and-not-just-over-trade.html

US crude falls for 11th straight session, its longest losing streak on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-and-opec-in-focus.html

I guess you just need to find out whether #45's business empire is short or long on China to know whether the war will end or not :p. There is probably a reason he threatens to throw his toys out of the cot if the Democrates ask for his tax returns .

Didn't the Trump empire invest recently into some big silk road project? And does not one of Trumps daughters still get for her little business tariff free garments out of China? But obviously - we don't know, whether this is enough ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-tariffs-near-trumps-business-empire-includes-china-ties/2018/07/05/9bfd1056-7956-11e8-aeee-4d04c8ac6158_story.html?utm_term=.75803177b5e7

And talking oil - just another of Trump's playthings. If he wants it high he just cancels some concessions to buy Iranian oil ... if he wants it lower he issues some more concessions.

Just follow Trumps money and everything will be revealed ...

[blackcap]

cramer knows everything bp

Cramer: 'We are at war against the Chinese,' and it's not just over trade
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/cramer-warns-us-at-war-against-the-chinese-and-not-just-over-trade.html

US crude falls for 11th straight session, its longest losing streak on record
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/12/oil-markets-saudi-arabia-and-opec-in-focus.html

Booyah! Cramer knows everything but he does not have a positive alpha :)

Some smart alecs in the USA did a thesis on his performance. Seems he under performs the market.

[bull....]

Booyah! Cramer knows everything but he does not have a positive alpha :)

Some smart alecs in the USA did a thesis on his performance. Seems he under performs the market.

booyah , hes entertaining. i guess your referring to his charitable trust? most funds underperformed s&p 500 last 10 yrs or more. his hedge fund found a strategy that performed well although it was fairly small.

[blackcap]

booyah , hes entertaining. i guess your referring to his charitable trust? most funds underperformed s&p 500 last 10 yrs or more. his hedge fund found a strategy that performed well although it was fairly small.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2009/08/25/jim-cramer-exposed-does-he-generate-alpha

A bit of harmless fun.
Another study:

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=1411190820900981220661260780190790 07050013055041044089022119072091084025072104026096 03606302510310403706210400507411608012006501507508 60340861140690810641020000060890280030851010690891 04119124087082119113081087023024099022080066083025 007066093119066&EXT=pdf

Abstract: We use the popular television show Mad Money hosted by Jim Cramer to test theories of
attention and limits to arbitrage. Stock recommendations on Mad Money constitute attention
shocks to a large audience of individual traders. We find that stock recommendations lead to large
overnight returns which subsequently reverse over the next few months. The spike-reversal pattern
is strongest among small, illiquid stocks that are hard-to-arbitrage. Using daily Nielsen ratings as a
direct measure of attention, we find the overnight return is strongest when high income viewership
is high. We also find weak price effects among sell recommendations. Taken together, the evidence
supports the retail attention hypothesis of Barber and Odean (2008) and illustrates the potential role
of media in generating mispricing.

[peat]

9180 should be the highest point IF (as BlackPeter questions) it is a dead cat bounce

10112
as at end of Oct
10151

By now we've completed the first leg as at yesterdays close and on form we are now falling today so maybe we will lose half of the gains before turning up again

10150

[bull....]

as at end of Oct
10151

By now we've completed the first leg as at yesterdays close and on form we are now falling today so maybe we will lose half of the gains before turning up again

10150

nz market retraced about 50% from the lows before finding resistance , still looks bearish to me.

what about oil absolutely plunging 6% down now , 26% last mth pretty much

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/combat-sports/108579539/joseph-parker-calls-out-tony-bellew-in-wake-of-brits-stoppage-defeat-to-oleksandr-usyk

[couta1]

nz market retraced about 50% from the lows before finding resistance , still looks bearish to me.

what about oil absolutely plunging 6% down now , 26% last mth pretty much

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/combat-sports/108579539/joseph-parker-calls-out-tony-bellew-in-wake-of-brits-stoppage-defeat-to-oleksandr-usyk No worries, Santa rally is coming, cheap oil equals cheap petrol ,gosh that sounds like a Christmas present for many also.

[arc]

No worries, Santa rally is coming, cheap oil equals cheap petrol ,gosh that sounds like a Christmas present for many also.


So you think the price of petrol will drop for christmas... good luck with that.

refiners perspective; cheaper crude = bigger profit

[Leftfield]

We can all relax.....bear market is 2 years away???? :t_up:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/billionaire-cohen-says-bear-market-is-coming-in-next-two-years?srnd=premium-asia

[Joshuatree]

Hilarious ehh:D
“We’re definitely late cycle, and so at some point we’re going to enter a bear market, and it’s going to happen in the next year and a half, maybe two,”

[bull....]

vix is at the top of the consolidation range. you know this correction is far from over when the vix hasnt behaved like in previous quick sell offs . anyway vix when it moves from consolidation if to the upside is looking like we gonna get a huge move in the market by the way i had a short on apple at 215 just before there update it was the only fang not to have declined like the others and now its joined the party

[BlackPeter]

We can all relax.....bear market is 2 years away???? :t_up:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-14/billionaire-cohen-says-bear-market-is-coming-in-next-two-years?srnd=premium-asia

I read "Bear Market Coming Within Two Years". This could be tomorrow - or it could be in two years. Maybe better not to relax too much based on this article ...

[bull....]

retest of the recent lows looks likely now

[peat]

It seems to me as if there is a bit of a flight to quality occurring

[Joshuatree]

Wow , Baltic dry index down 5.17% in one day, 27.67% in one week and 36.30% in one month!

[NeverQuestion]

I read "Bear Market Coming Within Two Years". This could be tomorrow - or it could be in two years. Maybe better not to relax too much based on this article ...

Someone should do a study of market predictions made over the years and plot it to what actually happened. I would be interested to know how accurate they truly are or if they are just trying to get free advertising!

[Leftfield]

Someone should do a study of market predictions made over the years and plot it to what actually happened. I would be interested to know how accurate they truly are or if they are just trying to get free advertising!

Just about every month since I've been actively investing in the last 5yrs there has been one, two or more articles forecasting the imminent market decline, so I guess they have all been wrong........so far.

The above article was just another one.

I'm staying in the market, but am treading carefully. Following Ben Graham's 'Intelligent Investor' guidelines is the best thing we can do to prepare for any market shock.

FYI here is another article from the reputable Washington Post, signalling a major issue that could be in the making. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-there-a-financial-time-bomb-in-sight/2018/11/14/e80705e0-e811-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html?utm_term=.1fd3308ee8fd)

Take care out there.

[Blue Horseshoe]

Hard to predict, when central banks keep pumping billions of dollars into the economies to prop them up.

[BlackPeter]

Just a fun-fact (in case people didn't notice): The ASX BEAR seems to wake up.

BEAR.ASX is now in a confirmed uptrend ... bouncing earlier this week on the MA200 and just having passed the Golden Cross!

10164

[bull....]

not a nice start to the week for us markets , be watching the oct lows still for first sign of support

[arc]

As expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/this-chart-is-proof-buy-the-dip-is-dead.html

[bull....]

another down day , big down at the open. vix is moving up but no sign of a flush yet or a bottom in indices. oil down huge again

indices down for the ytd again nz still out performing not sure if this a good thing? im still thinking it will catch up soonoor or later

[Peitro]

Black Friday sale this week? Not sure I could be tempted by anything at the moment, I think the NZX is going to be spooked more than the US markets...

[bull....]

Black Friday sale this week? Not sure I could be tempted by anything at the moment, I think the NZX is going to be spooked more than the US markets...

nz slow to catch on , irrational exerberance still evident harder the fall to come i reckon. look at mft good results and new stock highs , hello if the world gdp is slowing going forward mft will slow too. anyway just an example

[Aaron]

I wouldn't worry central banks must be ready to ride to the rescue with negative interest rates and easy money. The current paradigm is that money is worthless and we need to protect the people in finance and the people they lend money to. Any federal reserve pronouncement that interest rate increases will cease is bound to boost markets 3-4%

[blackcap]

I wouldn't worry central banks must be ready to ride to the rescue with negative interest rates and easy money. The current paradigm is that money is worthless and we need to protect the people in finance and the people they lend money to. Any federal reserve pronouncement that interest rate increases will cease is bound to boost markets 3-4%

On CNBC this morning they are saying that the Fed is not going to raise rates as much as they were initially going to. Only looking at .25 pts next times (75% chance) then half a year later a 61% chance of .25%. So I think you may be right.

[bull....]

I wouldn't worry central banks must be ready to ride to the rescue with negative interest rates and easy money. The current paradigm is that money is worthless and we need to protect the people in finance and the people they lend money to. Any federal reserve pronouncement that interest rate increases will cease is bound to boost markets 3-4%

actually could be interpreted if the fed stops hiking that they are worried about growth , so a temporary boost in stock prices is just another opportunity to sell

[bull....]

Morgan Stanley: We are in a bear market
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/19/investing/stocks-bear-market-morgan-stanley/index.html

[Aaron]

actually could be interpreted if the fed stops hiking that they are worried about growth , so a temporary boost in stock prices is just another opportunity to sell

I like your negative spin, it could be that everyone's outlook has changed and even central bank intervention won't prevent a correction.

[Blue Skies]

Good article CNN Business, why the Dow is dropping, briefly 1) fading impact of tax cuts 2) higher borrowing costs due to Fed. But JP Morgan thinks overdone & with way things are now, may hold Fed hike & Trump likely to pull back from any sort of trade war with China as any hint of recession last thing he wants to add to his reputation.

[Lewylewylewy]

If a bear is snowballed negative sentiment, the question is, is there enough (and sustained) negative sentiment?

You might think so reading this press, and in previous years i would have believed that enough press can change minds, but we live in a clickbait world now and there's a lot of crying wolf.

However, I'm a little bear because i think that the press coupled with some pr results could sway people. Anyway, there's enough dumb stuff going on in nz and abroad that won't help the situation were a recession to appear.

Where do others sit right now?

[arc]

If a bear is snowballed negative sentiment, the question is, is there enough (and sustained) negative sentiment? .... Where do others sit right now?

I remember making a comment many months ago (mid 2017 ?) about the machine finding an unusual pattern in global stocks. Multiple large companies in multiple countries all dropped by approximately the same amount within a 72 hour period. Someone instituted a global sell down. It happened twice again about a month apart. Within a couple of months (end of 2017 beginning 2018) global trends started moving sideways... but of course only reviewable on hindsight.

Not saying that one person/company or Nation? is responsible but interesting trends in interesting times raise interesting questions.

[kiora]

I remember making a comment many months ago (mid 2017 ?) about the machine finding an unusual pattern in global stocks. Multiple large companies in multiple countries all dropped by approximately the same amount within a 72 hour period. Someone instituted a global sell down. It happened twice again about a month apart. Within a couple of months (end of 2017 beginning 2018) global trends started moving sideways... but of course only reviewable on hindsight.

Not saying that one person/company or Nation? is responsible but interesting trends in interesting times raise interesting questions.

This could be.Watch correlation NZ/USD & NZX

[Bobdn]

I have some cash in the bank for the first time since March 2009. Strange feeliing to go from being 100 per invested for almost 10 years to now having a reasonably big cash buffer. I always found it easier buying shares than selling them.

I'm still mostly invested and don't want to see a full scale sell off however at least I have some dry powder WHEN the balloon goes up.

[Blue Skies]

IMO what comes out of the meeting between Trump & Xi Jinping in Argentina at the end of this month at the G20 will really affect the way the market goes, esp after ramped up posturing leading up to & including APEC.
However, let's not forget there's a US election which Trump & Republicans will be desperate to win just 24 months away, November 2020, which also coincides with our next General election also Nov 2020.
Trump just showed he's prepared to overlook the Saudi problem in the interests of the economy, an indication of his set of priorities, & with elections just over horizon i'ld be surprised if he doesn't come to a GREAT deal with China.

[BlackPeter]

IMO what comes out of the meeting between Trump & Xi Jinping in Argentina at the end of this month at the G20 will really affect the way the market goes, esp after ramped up posturing leading up to & including APEC.
However, let's not forget there's a US election which Trump & Republicans will be desperate to win just 24 months away, November 2020, which also coincides with our next General election also Nov 2020.
Trump just showed he's prepared to overlook the Saudi problem in the interests of the economy, an indication of his set of priorities, & with elections just over horizon i'ld be surprised if he doesn't come to a GREAT deal with China.

Lets hope the Chinese don't know about that :D;

[Peitro]

I for one appreciated the stability in the US markets overnight

[silu]

I for one appreciated the stability in the US markets overnight

Only numb skull "stable genius" Trump somehow made the Thanksgiving address all about himself.

[bull....]

I for one appreciated the stability in the US markets overnight

yea i got to have a sleep in nice.

anyway the futures are not looking good for when the us markets re open at this stage.


The bad news is that the S&P 500 has only started the fourth quarter this horribly five other times in history, according to Bespoke. And those years are all infamous. Besides 2008, these years include the Great Depression (1929, 1932 and 1937) as well as 1987 during the Black Monday crash.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/21/investing/stock-market-worst-start-2008/index.html

[Aaron]

Bull your a real downer lately. I like it, I have been waiting a long time for the next leg down since 2008/09. Maybe this is the big one. Margin calls will mean more selling then, when uneducated investors see their passive index fund values dropping they will join the exodus, funds will have to sell to meet redemptions. Baby Boomers close to retirement might panic even worse and as people close their wallets, some over indebted companies might turn into crappy investments. Yield and cashflow might become more important than growth and capital gain. Doom and despair. Hopefully only enough for me to make some investments at reasonable prices, not so much that people are put out of work or suffer. Could still be a monetary crisis first and my savings get wiped out before I can invest them. Who knows, I saw a goose the other day perhaps I should have read its entrails as to what the future holds as this would as useful as anything to guide my soothsaying.

[macduffy]

Be careful what you wish for, Aaron!

:ohmy:

[Aaron]

Be careful what you wish for, Aaron!

:ohmy:

I think its been said before, more debt and lower interest rates aren't really a solution to a problem of too much debt. Current measures are just pushing the problem into the future making any adjustment even worse. I don't wish ill on anyone but protecting reckless bankers and destroying savers and investors to save speculators and overspending politicians egged on by the voting public wanting a free lunch as well as exacerbating the divide between the haves and have nots isn't that great either in my opinion.

[BlackPeter]

I think its been said before, more debt and lower interest rates aren't really a solution to a problem of too much debt. Current measures are just pushing the problem into the future making any adjustment even worse. I don't wish ill on anyone but protecting reckless bankers and destroying savers and investors to save speculators and overspending politicians egged on by the voting public wanting a free lunch as well as exacerbating the divide between the haves and have nots isn't that great either in my opinion.

Agreed. However - this doesn't mean it's not going to happen again.

[Valuegrowth]

Investors are showing a clear preference for quality stocks (companies) with less debt, stable businesses and some defensive characteristics. Outlook could get ugly for oil and the NASDAQ. Is it time to buy quality stocks with stable businesses and recurring revenue?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-21/oil-price-crash-great-news-for-motorists-bad-news-for-economy/10517720

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-tech-stocks-apple-amazon-alphabet-google-facebook-microsoft-netflx-are-now-wall-streets-turkeys/

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-stocks-close/nikkei-rises-before-long-weekend-defensive-stocks-tourism-related-firms-outperform-idUSL4N1XX2T9

[kiora]

Crypto's relatively calm in comparison,go figure!

Yep pretty suspicious
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12165209

[arc]

Yep pretty suspicious
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12165209

I agree with the article, there is nothing real behind cryptocurrency other than carefully orchestrated crime and greed. They can't even find who the sellers are, or who is involved. Smoke and mirrors.... Mind over matter, in the words of a pusher in an Auckland court, your savings are gone, I don't mind and you don't matter

[arc]

And just to continue the Facebook or. Any online site drama, we can add some household items to the list of untrusted appliances, including Alexia and Apples SIRI and other smart "helper" devices. ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108800623/Protecting-customer-data-is-the-price-of-digital-business

[bull....]

big week this week g20 on the weekend , fed minutes , dragi speaks , china pmi .

technically at this stage markets are on track for year end targets

[BlackPeter]

big week this week g20 on the weekend , fed minutes , dragi speaks , china pmi .

technically at this stage markets are on track for year end targets

... and don't forget the BREXIT discussion / decisions. Plenty of opportunities for the BREXITEERS as well as for protestantic fundamentalists in Northern Ireland to further damage the UK and crash the markets ...

[bull....]

... and don't forget the BREXIT discussion / decisions. Plenty of opportunities for the BREXITEERS as well as for protestantic fundamentalists in Northern Ireland to further damage the UK and crash the markets ...

yep parliament could still vote it down.

[bull....]

nz market out performing still , even the us markets ytd now , normally i would say thats good but i find it hard to see how nz can buck the trend over time.

[Filthy]

nz market out performing still , even the us markets ytd now , normally i would say thats good but i find it hard to see how nz can buck the trend over time.

reckon if you take ATM/SML out of the index, you might get a different story :/

[BlackPeter]

nz market out performing still , even the us markets ytd now , normally i would say thats good but i find it hard to see how nz can buck the trend over time.

I guess NZ could turn into something like the Switzerland of the South Pacific if we play the game right and avoid being trampled down by the big players fighting each other. We could embrace foreign investors and try to gain from the tradewars by keeping out of them and trading with everybody).

Not sure however whether our current populist government has what it takes to play this game ...

[Joshuatree]

Wow , Baltic dry index down 5.17% in one day, 27.67% in one week and 36.30% in one month!

Now up 18% in a week!.

[Yoda]

Looks like the world markets are all green tonight, .might be a good day tomorrow

[Baa_Baa]

Looks like the world markets are all green tonight, .might be a good day tomorrow

Three hours later, its not - green. It really is more relevant to day/momentum traders, and I do think the globals performance especially SP5/DOW/Naz is material to our market but best to wait until they're closing, prior to our open, before ruining a good night's sleep wondering about what tomorrow might bring ... if you're a day/momentum trader, otherwise mainly it's just noise.

[bull....]

Looks like the world markets are all green tonight, .might be a good day tomorrow

think the next mth to 2 is going to be very volatile

[NeverQuestion]

think the next mth to 2 is going to be very volatile

I think that as soon as the Fed raise interest rates in December we will see a repeat of stock markets reacting negatively yet again..this is the late end of the cycle. Cash is king. Buy back in at the start of the next cycle.

[Aaron]

Its off to the races again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/fed-chairman-powell-now-sees-current-interest-rate-level-just-below-neutral.html
Thank you central bankers and financial systems for making the world what it is.

[winner69]

Its off to the races again.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/28/fed-chairman-powell-now-sees-current-interest-rate-level-just-below-neutral.html
Thank you central bankers and financial systems for making the world what it is.

Yep ....They got to Powell ....eventually

[Blue Skies]

Fed Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell's speech overnight all good good good for the markets, recognised market peaked in Oct & now doesn't want this cycle to end. May now get the usual strong Nov Dec Christmas rally.

[Joshuatree]

Woo hoo nothing but blue skies from now on.... atpit:D
I love the anticipatory aroma of money in the morning.

[couta1]

Woo hoo nothing but blue skies from now on.... atpit:D
I love the anticipatory aroma of money in the morning. All depends on the Trumpet and China.

[Joshuatree]

Yes ,just looking forward to a feel good relief rally today.

[Joshuatree]

Wouldn't it be nice
Did Fed’s Powell ‘light the fuse’ for a year-end stock-market rally? (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/did-feds-powell-light-the-fuse-for-a-year-end-stock-market-rally-2018-11-28)

[Joshuatree]

A friend saw this detail somewhere. We are in a lucky country here in many ways.

"if you guys have found 2018 difficult it is because it has been the third worst year for asset performance, globally, since 1901"