Black Monday

[skid]

Can't go wrong with chase and equiticorp:)

[GTM 3442]

Can't go wrong with chase and equiticorp:)

I don't know about Equiticorp, but I certainly went very wrong with Chase.

[bull....]

chase corp my first experience in the sharemarket - rode it to the end, just as well I new nothing about dollar cost averaging back then

[bull....]

actually the action on wall st was good it was better that it closed down than up ( sounds weird I know ) but I think a bottom is trying to be made and ill be looking for a bounce tonight ( hopefully no guarantees ever )

historic rally lets hope nzx has a pop

[Joshuatree]

Third biggest rally in history
Volatility sticking around like a frog in a sock, a flea at a circus,a childs first waterslide.

[trader_jackson]

After America's amazing (but not unexpected) rally... the NZX should rally well over 1% today...

[Beagle]

I've donated FAR more than enough in brokerage this week after some serious portfolio weeding so I won't be buying this rally and donating even more...who's to say there isn't an even more spectacular fall tomorrow ?

I think its actually quite addictive...clicking the mouse and trading the market and trying to beat it and even at ANZ securities 0.2% rate of $29.90 per $15,000...you add it up and see how much you paid last year / month or whatever timeframe you want to use.

[pak]

My thoughts exactly Roger. It's very tempting to jump back in today. But what's going to happen tomorrow or next week is another story. Have donated too much to brokerage as well. Will sit and watch this one.

[GR8DAY]

....yep agree generally. Happy to be well parked on the sideline for now. Ive made a few brokers happy this week and dont mind admitting it.......taken a few big hits too but what the hell, thats the risky game we play. at least in my case the government is taking a hit also .......so there's some consolation! Big picture not flash in my mind.......even gold looks stuffed at the moment. Might go buy some property in Tauranga......running hot down there apparantly.

[arc]

Apple: Death cross

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/apple-forms-perilous-death-cross-pattern.html


Coming events...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/26/saudi-arabia-hangs-on-with-cheap-oil-but-for-how-long.html

[Daytr]

The fact that oil hasn't done anything really & in fact WTI was down, doesn't give me any confidence that this is over, by a long chalk.
Previously Shale producers would have been able to hedge forward 12 months and get a profitable price, but now the 12M future on WTI is only $45.
Sure $7 higher than spot, but still not profitable for a lot of producers.
Banks with debt must be sweating blood at the thought of what they have exposed to this industry.

[Joshuatree]

Yeah saw that on CNBC. IF it is right, too early to be back in energy stocks .

[see weed]

I've donated FAR more than enough in brokerage this week after some serious portfolio weeding so I won't be buying this rally and donating even more...who's to say there isn't an even more spectacular fall tomorrow ?

I think its actually quite addictive...clicking the mouse and trading the market and trying to beat it and even at ANZ securities 0.2% rate of $29.90 per $15,000...you add it up and see how much you paid last year / month or whatever timeframe you want to use.
0.2% is better than my 0.3% with ASB. So if you do a $30,000 trade at 0.2%=$60, and my $30,000 trade costs $90 with ASB. Correct me if I am wrong.

[Beagle]

LOL, Roger.

Anybody worried about brokerage is obviously making the wrong trades! Its pretty easy to skim 2-3% here or there, so 0.4% round trip is peanuts.

LOL indeed NG Anyone not honest enough to admit they've taken "a hit" this week is full of it as is anyone who thinks they know for sure which way Wall St goes overnight tonight.

I'm with Datyr...Oil is the most widely consumed commodity in the world and the fact that it hasn't materially risen from multi year lows bodes poorly for global economic growth...the demand simply isn't there...

But if you think today's rally on the NZX is here to stay and more...fill ya boots mate, I am sure your broker will be happy :D

[nextbigthing]

0.2% is better than my 0.3% with ASB. So if you do a $30,000 trade at 0.2%=$60, and my $30,000 trade costs $90 with ASB. Correct me if I am wrong.

That's correct. It's 0.3% with ANZ share and bond trading too. It's only 0.2% with ANZ securities if you have cash in the multi currency account.

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/static/ourrates.aspx

Thanks Roger

[Daytr]

Oh really, haha I didn't. I don't even have TV!
But it does seem to be an under reported story in my view, the debt I mean, particularly considering its significance.


Yeah saw that on CNBC. IF it is right, too early to be back in energy stocks .

[Joshuatree]

Commision has never been cheaper. Its tax deductive for you traders. The smell of money is all that matters huh.Something for nothing yeah right ....pass me a tui.:lol:

[bull....]

nice open on the nzx - as warren buffet says buy when others are panicking lol

[tzbang]

Be greedy while others are fearful and fearful while others are greedy - as the saying goes

[Beagle]

Commision has never been cheaper. Its tax deductive for you traders. The smell of money is all that matters huh.Something for nothing yeah right ....pass me a tui.:lol:

The simple point I am making is if you allow yourself to be churned by the ever increasing volatility of the market it adds up over time.

[noodles]

Be greedy while others are fearful and fearful while others are greedy - as the saying goes
Unless it is a bear market. Today might be a good day to offload those low conviction positions you may hold.

[see weed]

That's correct. It's 0.3% with ANZ share and bond trading too. It's only 0.2% with ANZ securities if you have cash in the multi currency account.

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/static/ourrates.aspx

Thanks Roger
Thanks nextbigthing. I have spent thousands on fees at .3% with ASB securities in the last 14 months :confused:. I will be phoning them today to see if they can match ANZ. If not ANZ here I come.

[minimoke]

LOL indeed NG Anyone not honest enough to admit they've taken "a hit" this week is full of it as is anyone who thinks they know for sure which way Wall St goes overnight tonight.

I can say I haven't taken a hit. Non of my stop losses were triggered so I have sat out the last few days out. Portfolio as at last night still up 14% (ex dividends) on prior year so I don't see a need to lock in losses by selling.

I have no idea what will happen on wall Street tonight. I'm not worried and if my stop loss is triggered I'll take the hit. I generally don't sweat the day to day ups and downs as I'm not a day trader.

It is fun sitting on the side lines and watching though.

[pak]

Yes GR8DAY the Tauranga property market is red hot. On that note I have a rental there (Papamoa) that Im selling that has good returns. Going on Market next month. Two separate dwellings on one property (title). Was my first home, as a home an income property. If your serious or anyone else for that matter, send me a private message so this thread doesnt get of track and i can send more info.

[Zaphod]

Most of my investments are medium to long term plays, so I'm not particularly worried unless the slide continues. All are still in the black, with one only just!

[janner]

I can say I haven't taken a hit. Non of my stop losses were triggered so I have sat out the last few days out. Portfolio as at last night still up 14% (ex dividends) on prior year so I don't see a need to lock in losses by selling.

I have no idea what will happen on wall Street tonight. I'm not worried and if my stop loss is triggered I'll take the hit. I generally don't sweat the day to day ups and downs as I'm not a day trader.

It is fun sitting on the side lines and watching though.

Are you willing to share your positions ????

[BeeBop]

I can say I haven't taken a hit. Non of my stop losses were triggered so I have sat out the last few days out. Portfolio as at last night still up 14% (ex dividends) on prior year so I don't see a need to lock in losses by selling.

I have no idea what will happen on wall Street tonight. I'm not worried and if my stop loss is triggered I'll take the hit. I generally don't sweat the day to day ups and downs as I'm not a day trader.

It is fun sitting on the side lines and watching though.

And I am in the same position, although, I think my portfolio is up tad more than yours (including dividends though). One of my shares is on a loss in the U.S. (aal) but overall my gains on Npx, air, Thl and a UK stock (ALNT) which is under a takeover bid put my portfolio on the positive.

i had intended to buy some SKL but instead, I have decided to go on a property fact finding trip to Queenstown as I have taken the opportunity to transfer some funds from usd to NZD.

[BlackPeter]

LOL indeed NG Anyone not honest enough to admit they've taken "a hit" this week is full of it as is anyone who thinks they know for sure which way Wall St goes overnight tonight.

I'm with Datyr...Oil is the most widely consumed commodity in the world and the fact that it hasn't materially risen from multi year lows bodes poorly for global economic growth...the demand simply isn't there...

But if you think today's rally on the NZX is here to stay and more...fill ya boots mate, I am sure your broker will be happy :D

Actually - the demand for oil is increasing - check the latest EIA stats ... https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

Just remember all these additional gas guzzlers GM sold over the last year (their best year ever - selling mainly top of the line, i.e. thirsty vehicles).

Only problem is - the oil supply is increasing still faster than the oil demand. The interesting question is how long this gap will grow with reduced exploration.

[arc]

The starters gun has certainly gone off...
AIA is running

[minimoke]

Are you willing to share your positions ????all price up (Inc one nyse holding up 20%) except CEN and RYM. SKT also down and only holding on by the skin of its teeth due to divi yield. That may go in next day or so.

[Daytr]

Oil demand has increased as the price of oil has plummeted and demand is somewhat elastic as I pointed out some months ago, but got shot down for by a few pundits. However demand or driving season is coming to an end and there lies the problem in regards supply and over hanging stock build of oil at this point. Crude stocks are about to balloon again.

[Daytr]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

[skid]

I can say I haven't taken a hit. Non of my stop losses were triggered so I have sat out the last few days out. Portfolio as at last night still up 14% (ex dividends) on prior year so I don't see a need to lock in losses by selling.

I have no idea what will happen on wall Street tonight. I'm not worried and if my stop loss is triggered I'll take the hit. I generally don't sweat the day to day ups and downs as I'm not a day trader.

It is fun sitting on the side lines and watching though.

I understand what you are getting at--especially if you think this is just a storm in a tea cup--but if your 14% up ,you would not be locking in losses -you would be locking in profits--(if you are wrong about this correction)

[macduffy]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

Now I never knew that!

John Key has been responsible for the recent ructions on Wall Street!

;)

[Daytr]

Ha ha, nope just comparing the sales pitch he does for every government asset he can lay his hands on.

[Hoop]

Just shorted the DOW with a fairly tight stop.
A bit of a punt, but after seeing some of the sales pitches from the Wall Street types, I think this market is in trouble.
They really would sell their grandmother wouldn't they.
Remind me. What was John Key's role in banking? ;-)

bang on the 38.2%FIB resistance....I've seen many worse punts than yours Daytr..incl some of my own:):(

Yeah the sale pitches..You can see which Wall St gurus got caught in this downturn..eh?:D

[Daytr]

Well its in the red at the moment, but only smalls so we will see.
I made a fair bit on my original shorts on the DOW over the last 6 months.

[arc]

Looking back at the 2008 crash, it was actually the mid-2006 to mid-2007 inflationary spike that started to collapse later part of 2007 and took all of 2008 to reach the bottom... scarey

[Bjauck]

Looking back at the 2008 crash, it was actually the mid-2006 to mid-2007 inflationary spike that started to collapse later part of 2007 and took all of 2008 to reach the bottom... scarey

Talking of inflationary spikes, compared with March 2007 the NZ capital index is about at the same level today, compared with an increase of 20% in the CPI inflation index. However, Auckland house prices are about 60% up.

[minimoke]

I understand what you are getting at--especially if you think this is just a storm in a tea cup--but if your 14% up ,you would not be locking in losses -you would be locking in profits--(if you are wrong about this correction)
Yes. locking in profits may make sense. But as I say my portfolio is in an upward trend. I have seen these "corrections" before and invariably the market recovers to a stronger position than before the correction. So by selling I do lock in profit less sales commission. As at today I am 3.3% down on my position last month. Knock off the sell commission and the re-entry buy commission I'm down around 4% - because if I want to lock in profits I should have sold last month.

One thing I don't have is a Profit Sell trigger, just a stop loss - so I'm inclined to let things run. I guess when i look at a 4% "loss" I just cant get excited about trying to outsmart a market with a reentry price. I have confidence my portfolio is fundamentally OK and it will bounce back.

Incidentally while I glance at individual prices on a near daily basis I only do a portfolio analysis on a monthly basis. And at the moment I have CEN, SPK and THL in a better position today than last month - so do I sell now? I guess I just cant be bothered sweating the swings and roundabouts. The portfolio trend is my friend. A couple of day glitch does not constitute a trend

[pak]

Fairly strong rebound in progress. Even more tempting for tomorrow. I'm not participating though. More than happy to watch.

[easy money]

Fairly strong rebound in progress. Even more tempting for tomorrow. I'm not participating though. More than happy to watch.http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/?trknav=dw:topnav:markets:premarkets:17689937
Futures once again looking good...I note that crude is back above $40.00..

[Hoop]

Apparently only $3.2T has been erased from the World equity markets since China devalued its Yuan during August...Markets rise when there is enough "available money" ..so they say everything is OK as investors are buying up large atm...that's nice :)...Hmmm I wonder where all that money is coming from..

Did a bit of Googling as it seems some media people are losing their money perspectives...

If you stack $1T worth of one dollar bills on top of each other The height of the stack would measure 67,866 miles.

3.2T x 67866 = 217,171 miles high ...Earth to the moon 238,855 miles...damn not enough one dollar bills.

whats more scary are the scale of very large companies...
e.g...$3.2T that is $3,200,000,000,000 is 6 times larger than Apple..

So people ..don't stop buying smart phones,,,if you do us poor investors will suffer another global crash

[trader_jackson]

Another fantastic rally occurring as I type, who ever shorted the dow won't be having to much fun, hopefully back to 17k by Saturday morning, nzx and asx should have another moderate lift

[pak]

May look inviting. Some pretty wild swings if you ask me. Exactly what crashes are all about. Spin the wheel you might get lucky.

[couta1]

May look inviting. Some pretty wild swings if you ask me. Exactly what crashes are all about. Spin the wheel you might get lucky.
I'm going to spin it today, get amongst it I reckon, makes life more interesting.

[Joshuatree]

Yes pak . Biggest two day gain since 2008. Volatility plus. Wild and swinging times; i feel a hippie era coming on and an urge to dig out my Grateful Dead records and my peace medallions; tune in and drop out for a while.Hoarding my gains as well; no temptation unless PGW drops below 40c x div :lol:

[nextbigthing]

I'm going to spin it today, get amongst it I reckon, makes life more interesting.

Couta my dear ST friend. Do you think this is investing or gambling?

[couta1]

Couta my dear ST friend. Do you think this is investing or gambling?
Loading up on a stock about to pay a good divvy ain't gambling especially if the price is discounted.

[pak]

He said he was spinning, so sounds like he's gambling. Good luck.

[nextbigthing]

Loading up on a stock about to pay a good divvy ain't gambling especially if the price is discounted.

Fair call.

[Daytr]

Haha that was a pretty short trade. Stopped out obviously.
GDP in the US rockets as does oil up over 10%! Chinese market up double digit as well.
I would suggest we are seeing a shift of wealth from Wall St to Main St.
i.e. big multi nationals that earn their money offshore will struggle and so to energy producers.
Meanwhile consumers & retailers benefit with more money in their pockets to spend.
A healthier economy overall, but it takes time to adjust. Small Caps besides the giant retailers should benefit more than the DOW,
Still think this ain't over & the spike in oil was purely short covering.
Some parts of the economy as suggested above will benefit, others will crash.
So it probably depends how much the imminent debt crisis relating to oil impacts the confidence of the consumer on how things pan out.

[bull....]

Haha that was a pretty short trade. Stopped out obviously.
GDP in the US rockets as does oil up over 10%! Chinese market up double digit as well.
I would suggest we are seeing a shift of wealth from Wall St to Main St.
i.e. big multi nationals that earn their money offshore will struggle and so to energy producers.
Meanwhile consumers & retailers benefit with more money in their pockets to spend.
A healthier economy overall, but it takes time to adjust. Small Caps besides the giant retailers should benefit more than the DOW,
Still think this ain't over & the spike in oil was purely short covering.
Some parts of the economy as suggested above will benefit, others will crash.
So it probably depends how much the imminent debt crisis relating to oil impacts the confidence of the consumer on how things pan out.

totally agree

[Nasi Goreng]

Loading up on a stock about to pay a good divvy ain't gambling especially if the price is discounted.

Until...

a) dividend is cut
b) interest rates / bond yields increase to the point that high yielding stocks are no longer worth the risk.

I just recently bought into BHP, awesome dividend yield and I'm hoping that they can continue to pay progressive dividend for a very long time. It is a bit of a gamble though.

[couta1]

Until...

a) dividend is cut
b) interest rates / bond yields increase to the point that high yielding stocks are no longer worth the risk.

I just recently bought into BHP, awesome dividend yield and I'm hoping that they can continue to pay progressive dividend for a very long time. It is a bit of a gamble though.
I'm talking Air NZ and I can't see any dividend cut coming in the foreseeable future and point b will be a while off IMO, cheers

[kiora]

I'm talking Air NZ and I can't see any dividend cut coming in the foreseeable future and point b will be a while off IMO, cheers

Its not what you can see but what you can't see that can sting :)

[NZSilver]

Hi KW - I would be interested to know what triggers you are looking for? Dow Jones 200DMA is currently 17790.70, 50DMA which dropped below 200DMA around mid august is 17500.55. Currently dow is 16,654.72. (Dropped from 17300ish last friday to reach 15600ish at its low point). If DJIA crosses 200dma would you consider that a "volatility" and not a "correction", or would you consider that its volatility earlier if we pass back above 17300 point from where it dropped. Thanks in advance. Im quite happy sitting sideline too at this point, some shares still continuing to drop..

Interested in others thoughts around this too..

[couta1]

Its not what you can see but what you can't see that can sting :)
There's many obstacles in life you cannot see, I mean after all your next breath may be your last:eek2:

[pak]

As someone mentioned earlier. Oil prices while cheap for the consumer is actually going to cause more problems than it solves. Oil rig count in the US alone is dramatically down yet supply is out stripping demand. OPEC is not controlling the demand and supply like it used to. Companies scrambling to make their businesses as efficient as possible. . Some are bound to start folding. Canada has been high fiving for years with their oil sands. Now they are struggling as the cost to produce oil from those sands is so high. It will b interesting to see when the cracks in Canada start appearing in main stream media. I'm sure there's other countries in this situation too. When big well paying companies start folding we know we are in real trouble.

[skid]

when you play Russian roulette,you cant see if theres a bullet in the next chamber--When I think of possible scenarios that can affect a company,airline shares are near the top of the list.

Its all about the odds,Coutts--If your going to gamble(once you admit ,thats what your doing),you had better learn the difference between the odds of the market going pear shaped (which,as you saw affected AIR)and you taking your next breath

[arc]

The problem with div's at the moment is that the market is falling faster than the amount the div will return. And then the price will drop after div date, and the market will still be falling.... loss compounded on top of loss..

[GTM 3442]

The problem with div's at the moment is that the market is falling faster than the amount the div will return. And then the price will drop after div date, and the market will still be falling.... loss compounded on top of loss..

So shares will be "on sale". Good. I will probably buy some more. After all, who wants to pay full retail price.

[xafalcon]

The problem with div's at the moment is that the market is falling faster than the amount the div will return. And then the price will drop after div date, and the market will still be falling.... loss compounded on top of loss..

MEL, CEN, GNE don't show this trend over the last 2 months, and they are good dividend payers

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL...buying opportunities have been hard to come by for a while so agree. All that cashed up money will be looking for new homes and traders will be tempted by "riches to be made"...
So shares will be "on sale". Good. I will probably buy some more. After all, who wants to pay full retail price.

[arc]

There certainly are a lot of nervous twitches on the market today. People are trying to get in on the "recovery" but it actually looks like some players have other ideas and are still selling down.... people only think its a recovery because the heavy selling has turned into a slower more controlled and considered selling... It could turn into a rush to the top, but it could also turn into a hasty emotional rush to the top and over a steep edge.

MEL falling since end of April
CEN falling since February
GNE falling since March

Dont get caught on the downhill ice slope.

[xafalcon]

There certainly are a lot of nervous twitches on the market today. People are trying to get in on the "recovery" but it actually looks like some players have other ideas and are still selling down.... people only think its a recovery because the heavy selling has turned into a slower more controlled and considered selling... It could turn into a rush to the top, but it could also turn into a hasty emotional rush to the top and over a steep edge.

MEL falling since end of April
CEN falling since February
GNE falling since March

Dont get caught on the downhill ice slope.

Depends on your investment timeframe.

I bought CEN a few weeks back and I'm 13% up with a 2.8% divvy on Monday

I bough MEL 3 days ago and I'm 5% up with a 5.5% divvy next month

I bought GNE a few weeks back and I'm up 6% with a 4.4% divvy in Oct

I figure the market is captive, stable/growing, based on making/selling a necessity of life and with government owning 51% of MEL and GNE the comcom will steer well clear

So I see the glass as half full (hope it doesn't turn out to be half empty and falling)

[arc]

Depends on your investment timeframe.

I bought CEN a few weeks back and I'm 13% up with a 2.8% divvy on Monday

I bough MEL 3 days ago and I'm 5% up with a 5.5% divvy next month

I bought GNE a few weeks back and I'm up 6% with a 4.4% divvy in Oct

I figure the market is captive, stable/growing, based on making/selling a necessity of life and with government owning 51% of MEL and GNE the comcom will steer well clear

So I see the glass as half full (hope it doesn't turn out to be half empty and falling)

Excellent timing on the buy-in's, I wish you well.... I dont need to tell you to keep a close eye on the market, and remember that the prices will fall after div day by the amount of the div... hopefully the market will "actually" be in recovery by then and this correction just a scene in the rearview mirror.

Personally Im sidelined till I can tell what is trending and what is just faking it. {Technically still holding Div-payers.. but presently out of Growth's as they... are not)

Looking at the history file the downturn started about 5th-7th of August.. well before the "correction" ... lots of sudden moves to sell-off..hmmmmm. Think Ill run the neural net over the market and see just how many started making alternative positions beginning of August... perhaps do the US as well, might be interesting to see what patterns emerge.

.

[pak]

Not much of the underlying factors has actually changed in the last week from the china crash. Sentiment maybe? But that can change in a heart beat. The interest rate cut has only delayed and made the problem worse. Was in MEL from IPO, initial plan was to hold on to this year's divies, but figured the herd would do the same. Changed plan and cashed up. Was a good run till now. Will keep an eye out for when it really does become cheap again.

[arc]

What do you think of coincidences. Especially ones that display "significant clustering within a certain time period... my maths tutor used to say if the same things happen twice its a coincidence, if it happens three times there's something more to it, if it happens four times... that's no coincidence, start looking for the root cause...

AIA August 5-7
AIR August 12
ANZ August 7
ARG August 7
ATM August7
CEN - doesnt follow trend
COA August 14
CNU August 3
DIL August 5 correction till aug10 then back down
EBO July 29 then again August 7
FPH August 7
FBU August 6
FRE August 6
FSF August 7 massive rise then the weekend then trough till 20
GMT August 3
GNE August 3-4-5-6 Multiple days of concentrated sell off
HNZ August 6-7
IFT August 6-7
KMD August 6-7
KPG August 5-6-7
MEL August 4-5-6-7
MET July 22
MFT August 11
MPG August 7
MRP August 3-4-5-6-7
NPX August 7
NZX doesnt follow the trend
OHE August 4-5-6-7
PCT doesnt follow the trend
PEB August 13-14
PFI August 7
POT August 3-4-5-6 decline/recovery
RBD August 7
RYM August 7
SKC August 5-6-7
SKL August 5-6-7
SKT August 6-7-10
SPK August 3
STU August 6-7
SUM August 6-7
TME August 7
TPW August 13 outside the timelines but before the correction
TWR August 19 outside the timelines
VCT August 7
VHP does not follow the trend, recovers starting aug7
WBC August 6-7
WHS August 7 correction to its own peak, does not follow the trend
XRO July 30 then an increase in downward pressure
ZEL August 7 goes flat aug11-12 correction

apparently some people knew the news before others were allowed to...


Dont use Opera browser as it does not have the capability to display Flash application live graph. Use Firefox or the Windows browser
Go to google.com/finance
Top of page right beside the Blue/red/yellow colored Google logo Type into that search box NZE:??? where ??? is the stock code eg NZE:AIA
the : is required
This opens a Flash based graph of the price movements, At the top of the graph is a line displaying 1d 5d 1m YTD 1y 5y time displays
Use the 1m icon to select 1month of data display
Or use the mouse and click on the graph and scroll the mouse wheel manually to adjust the time-frame displayed
Look at/around the August 7 date...

Im presently looking at the US and then the UK markets to see if there are similar patterns

http://infinitas.co/img.lib/00-mkt.jpg

[noodles]

apparently some people knew the news before others were allowed to...
I'm lost. What news? What clustering are you talking about?

[Onion]

buying opportunities have been hard to come by

Totally agree. This "correction" has been an absolute disappointment. Complete rubbish. NZX should be embarrassed -- completely inadequate SP drops compared to their international competitors.

I was looking forward to some hefty discounts in the "Spring Sale" but the discounts haven't hit my buy prices AT ALL!

:t_down:

[kiora]

What do you think of coincidences. Especially ones that display "significant clustering within a certain time period... my maths tutor used to say if the same things happen twice its a coincidence, if it happens three times there's something more to it, if it happens four times... that's no coincidence, start looking for the root cause...

AIA August 5-7
AIR August 12
ANZ August 7
ARG August 7
ATM August7
CEN - doesnt follow trend
COA August 14
CNU August 3
DIL August 5 correction till aug10 then back down
EBO July 29 then again August 7
FPH August 7
FBU August 6
FRE August 6
FSF August 7 massive rise then the weekend then trough till 20
GMT August 3
GNE August 3-4-5-6 Multiple days of concentrated sell off
HNZ August 6-7
IFT August 6-7
KMD August 6-7
KPG August 5-6-7
MEL August 4-5-6-7
MET July 22
MFT August 11
MPG August 7
MRP August 3-4-5-6-7
NPX August 7
NZX doesnt follow the trend
OHE August 4-5-6-7
PCT doesnt follow the trend
PEB August 13-14
PFI August 7
POT August 3-4-5-6 decline/recovery
RBD August 7
RYM August 7
SKC August 5-6-7
SKL August 5-6-7
SKT August 6-7-10
SPK August 3
STU August 6-7
SUM August 6-7
TME August 7
TPW August 13 outside the timelines but before the correction
TWR August 19 outside the timelines
VCT August 7
VHP does not follow the trend, recovers starting aug7
WBC August 6-7
WHS August 7 correction to its own peak, does not follow the trend
XRO July 30 then an increase in downward pressure
ZEL August 7 goes flat aug11-12 correction

apparently some people knew the news before others were allowed to...


got to google.com/finance, type into the search box nze:??? where ??? is the stock code , use the 1m icon to select 1month of data display...

What am I missing in my search ?
box nze:??? where ??? is the stock code

[Joshuatree]

USA mkts finished flat today who knows what lies ahead.Its still risk on for me and happy to be patient for opps. If the mkt takes off sa la vie; i covered my risk and will find entries.

[Bobcat.]

Gold is up, technically because it looks like the bounce off a downward trendline from 1170USD looks to have run out of steam, and fundamentally 'cause Fed has now got less certain about raising interest rates. If market drops away Monday arvo and evening (NZ time) then they are unlikely to this year IMO.

The Euro and Yen have been heading down again these past three days (after climbing quickly all the way through the sharp global equity market downturn that started about a week ago). Both are now due for a lift IMO.

Re equities, I expect there's going to be a drop again to follow this 3 day bounce up - what's uncertain of course is not if, but when and just how dramatic.

Discl: now long again on Eur and Yen against the USD and Aussie. Short again on bluechip stocks, long on precious metals (mainly gold & silver diggers).

[Daytr]

Interesting night for oil as well BC.
It was down quite heavily at one stage to regain all its losses and end up a couple of percent.
I would suggest this was more to do with the tropical storm that is off the coast of Florida & the possibility of the hurricane season disrupting supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Overall a good opportunity to short I would suggest, but volatility reigns still.

[janner]

[QUOTE=Bobcat.;588865]Gold is up, technically /QUOTE]

Technically ???

Good luck with those thoughts..

[chippy52]

The ??? is the stocks code. EG AIR

[arc]

Continuing from the previous page...

NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple) August 11
NASDAQ:BAC (Bank America) August 7 instability August 11-12 fall ***
NASDAQ:GOOGL (Google) rise on August 11
NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) August 11
NASDAQ:BRK.A (Berkshire Hathaway) August 11 ** How about that even Buffetts company was hit
NASDAQ:BRK.B August 11
NASDAQ:XOM (Exxon) July 30
NASDAQ:WFC August 10
NASDAQ:JNJ August 5
NASDAQ:NVSEF August 5
NASDAQ:NVS August 10
NASDAQ:FB (Facebook) not in pattern
NASDAQ:GE 9General Electric) August 7
NASDAQ:CHL August 11
NASDAQ:CHLKF August 11
NASDAQ:AMZN August 6
NASDAQ:PTR (Petro China) not in pattern
NASDAQ:JPM (JP Morgan) August 11
NASDAQ:RHHBY (Roche) August 7
NASDAQ:NSRGY (Nestle) August 5-6-7
NASDAQ:WMT 9Wallmart) August 7
NASDAQ:T (AT%T) August 5-6-7
NASDAQ:PFE (Pfizer) August 5-6
NASDAQ:TOYOF (Toyota) August 4-5
NASDAQ:TF 9Toyota) August 3
NASDAQ:PG (Proctor&Gamble) July 29-30
NASDAQ:VZ (Verizon Communications) August 5-6-7, price rises on August 10-18
NASDAQ:CICHF August 11
NASDAQ:BHP 9BHP Bilton) August 10
NASDAQ:BABA August 11
NASDAQ:AHBIF August 11
NASDAQ:BUD August 11
NASDAQ:V (Visa) August 5-11
NASDAQ:CICHY August 10
NASDAQ DIS (Disney) August 4 big drop from $121 to $110, then to $106 just before black monday ***

...and the list goes on...

Similar "pattern" to the NZ data but slightly different timing

http://infinitas.co/img.lib/1-1.jpg

[arc]

Continuing...
England/ London Stock Exchange

LON:RDSA August 7
LON:CHTR August 5-6
LON:RDSB August 7
LON:SEPL August 12
LON:HSBA August 7
LON:ULVR August 11
LON:BP August 5
LON:BATS August 6,11
LON:GSK August 7
LON:BLT August 5,6,7,11
LON:VOD August 6
LON:LLOY August 7
LON:AZN August 6

and the list goes on... and on

So it looks so far like NZ, AUS, US, UK have all been hit with the same "managed event"
Havent even looked at the European or Japan/Asian theatres yet.


Lots of questions...
No answers...

[winner69]

Those who "managed this event" are real evil aren't they arc

Sucked the world in and made zillions .....greedy people (not allowed to swear)

Arc, Whats your theory

[pak]

Thanks for your research arc. Assuming this year is crash year, how does your research compare for other years. Eg non crash year. Traditionally Aug to Oct is crash season anyway isn't it, so would expect a few patterns over this time.

[Daytr]

ARC, what am I missing? All I am seeing is a bunch of stock codes with various dates. Dates I assumed when these shares were hammered.
What pattern other than down are you alluding to? You use the word deliberate. Isn't any trade or combined movement in stocks deliberate? Up or down?

Cheers Daytr

[ari]

Those who "managed this event" are real evil aren't they arc

Sucked the world in and made zillions .....greedy people (not allowed to swear)

Arc, Whats your theory
http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-financial-markets-carefully-rigged-instruments-of-stock-market-manipulation/5472001

[winner69]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/china-financial-markets-carefully-rigged-instruments-of-stock-market-manipulation/5472001

They'll get their comeuppance one day, hopefully sooner than later

There will a revolution of sorts and the world will revert to more old fashioned values and these evil greedy vultures will be run out of town.

O

[nextbigthing]

The world will revert to more old fashioned values

Are you selling jousting sticks Winner? You're dreaming.

[winner69]

Are you selling jousting sticks Winner? You're dreaming.

it will be a generational thing

When they cotton on that these greedy money men don't contribute a brass razoo to the well being of a decent society hopefully the young will force change

[macduffy]

I noticed that the professor didn't seem to give any weight to the "gambling instinct" of many Chinese who have only recently been allowed - encouraged? - in to the stock market. A bit unfair to blame the "money men" entirely for this debacle without acknowledging that factor, IMO.

[arc]

Those who "managed this event" are real evil aren't they arc

Sucked the world in and made zillions .....greedy people (not allowed to swear)

Arc, Whats your theory


hahaha it does sound off the edge , no I dont think for a second that its a conspiracy or "evil people"
Tax time is different for different parts of the world so it cant be related to that. The closest other event was the Chinese devalue but that was announced on the 12th?.

I have no theory. I found a pattern that I personally do not understand... end of story

I dont understand crashes, why do they happen, what are the triggers, what are the significant things that contribute to it. Its like the whole world woke up on the 7th and said its Hammer-Time.

You financial wizards out there, tell me what would make almost every top100, top500 across multiple stock exchanges undergo a selldown on the same day, or at least within a 3 day period.
Also in your estimation would the ongoing effects of this initial selldown be the cause of black monday, or is it just a coincidence

[skid]

hahaha it does sound off the edge , no I dont think for a second that its a conspiracy or "evil people"
Tax time is different for different parts of the world so it cant be related to that. The closest other event was the Chinese devalue but that was announced on the 12th?.

I have no theory. I found a pattern that I personally do not understand... end of story

I dont understand crashes, why do they happen, what are the triggers, what are the significant things that contribute to it. Its like the whole world woke up on the 7th and said its Hammer-Time.

You financial wizards out there, tell me what would make almost every top100, top500 across multiple stock exchanges undergo a selldown on the same day, or at least within a 3 day period.
Also in your estimation would the ongoing effects of this initial selldown be the cause of black monday, or is it just a coincidence

I have no doubts that there is a fair amount of manipulation out there--but as an article--Is that it? (i was looking for page 2)

There are lots of things that can trigger a sell off when things are in a bubble.
Quite often its property ,but the bubble creation in the first place is probably more relevant--Its certainly no secret that many think the stock market has become overvalued in the US (and China is a no brainer)--I think the scarey part for many was the Chinese governments inability to control the events (at least until now but for how long?) The US has more polished controls to kick the can down the road ,but their options are becoming more and more limited as time goes on.
Something has to give at some stage(this may or may not be it)--but this is not a normal time to be into the sharemarket bigtime IMO----Saw a quote the other day--went something like--''at this phase of the market,the ''buy and hold''strategy is out the window''..
Whether its orchestrated or not is up for debate--but either way red is red.

[Major von Tempsky]

There's no compulsion on anyone, particularly on the big holders and investors, to panic and sell even when would be "gurus" on Sharetrader say they should be.

Instead they quietly pick off the bargains to be had, nor do they need to explain that to anyone.

Life continues.

[Daytr]

I would suggest a multitude of factors. Sentiment obviously plays a part, but so does TA and when certain levels are triggered the TA traders all jump in or out. The DOW for instance has looked like a sell for six months. Goldman Sachs called it as well.
Then you have the algos who again will be triggered purely from TA.

Obviously these stocks are also held in indices as well & a lot of people trade the index, so if its bought or sold the individual shares that make up the index also have to be bought or sold.


hahaha it does sound off the edge , no I dont think for a second that its a conspiracy or "evil people"
Tax time is different for different parts of the world so it cant be related to that. The closest other event was the Chinese devalue but that was announced on the 12th?.

I have no theory. I found a pattern that I personally do not understand... end of story

I dont understand crashes, why do they happen, what are the triggers, what are the significant things that contribute to it. Its like the whole world woke up on the 7th and said its Hammer-Time.

You financial wizards out there, tell me what would make almost every top100, top500 across multiple stock exchanges undergo a selldown on the same day, or at least within a 3 day period.
Also in your estimation would the ongoing effects of this initial selldown be the cause of black monday, or is it just a coincidence

[winner69]

......

Life continues.

As the man said in the Sydney Morning Herald yesterday the ASX All Ords was down 0.5% last week

Ok not up but just part of the ebbs and flows of a market. ..just a normal week

[arc]

Yes indeed life continues, thank goodness. Another week another divy

Skid: Sorry to disappoint you but I think I will just go into quiet investigation mode for a while... raving on at 2 in the morning while tired and cranky is not a good image.. :). If I find anything significant I will let people know.

Major von Tempsky: I think you are correct in that panic was and still is the prime motivator. If you spook the herd enough then stampede is a certainty.

Winner69: You asked if I had a theory and I dont have one... so I just thought of one now .. This has all happened before: it WILL happen again.

In relation to that, now that Im aware of the "pattern". I will spend some time searching for any others. I think there is a need for an active retrospective-indicator (it has to happen before it can be detected) that raises a BIG red flag within a few hours of this sort of thing happening again. If one knows one is prepared. This last event had a 2 week head start, before black monday, on us... I will start coding something to feed to the neural net that looks for things similar to this last event-pattern.

[Longhaul]

Thought I'd just leave this here - seems pertinent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, foresight is even better!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/while-many-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million

[skid]

Thought I'd just leave this here - seems pertinent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, foresight is even better!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/while-many-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million

He played the market both ways and won--I remember Bob Dyans lyrics--"'I cant help it if Im lucky''

Arc--Im in a different time zone(Thailand atm) if my posts seem at a crazy hour----Im here because I decided to preserve profits on 2 different stocks----Best of luck on your research

Alot would say its no fun being cautious,but I can testify that aint true---meanwhile we all hope it doesnt completely come unstuck as that would be good for not many,especially if banks start to go.

When you have been involved with shares for a while ,it can be very hard to let go..

[arc]

Longhaul: Thats interesting, I am still relatively new to this game. I started last year with just divy stocks and then had a flutter on growth's. I will have to look up the mechanism of "shorting" as I have not attempted that before. It does sound risky... but knowing what we know now we might be forewarned about "next time".

Skid: Thanks for the reply. Did you have to actually fly there to "preserve the profit"?. Makes my walking from the lounge to the computer room seem very dull by comparison, I am mostly cashed up, just 2 divy payers left which i will ride out while waiting for the bottom of this alice in wonderland market. The hard part is determining the bottom from the hysterical bounce(s). Seems to be a version of cat and mouse, or cat and bear trap...

Today will be interesting, Dow is down S&P is up

[Bobcat.]

Futures are looking ugly for tonight in the US (currently down 200 points on the Dow, 26 points on the S&P).

Accordingly, the EUR and JPY once again are strengthening against the USD, AUD, and especially the CAD (Brent Oil is now back under $50/b).

Hope you chaps took the opportunity Friday to sell out what you hadn't earlier.

Precious metals may lift tonight but not much else IMO.

BC

[Nasi Goreng]

This week could be buying opportunity time.

Question for those of you who buy US equities, are any of you buying or considering US equities with kiwi down in the 64 range? It is a double risk in many ways now but some of the stock valuations are starting to look attractive.

[arc]

But the question is
Is buying in this market just supplying slid gold teeth for the Bear, or is it paying the dentist to pull them?.

[Baa_Baa]

"Blacker Monday Looms" ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-30/blacker-monday-looms-dow-futures-down-220-after-j-hole-speech-china-fold

[BlackPeter]

"Blacker Monday Looms" ...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-30/blacker-monday-looms-dow-futures-down-220-after-j-hole-speech-china-fold

it always does ... and some day all the doomsday prophets will be right ... until they are wrong again. My portfolio didn't tank a lot last Monday (3% down at the worst point) ... and most of the dip came back by now anyway. Instead of worrying from crisis to crisis it might be a better strategy to maintain a well diversified portfolio based on companies providing essential (or desirable) services and products with a track record of solid earnings.

And looking into the "China crisis": The Shanghai Index is still 42% up compared to just 12 months ago, and people are worrying whether the Chinese economy is really growing by 7%, or maybe just by 6% or shock horror maybe just by 5%. If we take just a wee step back, than all these worries look a bit silly, don't they?

Sure - markets are currently volatile ... but there is an easy remedy against that: As long as you own solid stocks which you purchased at a reasonable price - don't worry about the SP jumping around - and definitely don't sell if the SP is cheap.

Maybe we should talk instead about an actually quite good earning season ... actually my retirement stock(s) did quite nicely, and I am as well reasonably confident about a number of manufacturers and service providers who all should benefit from the lower NZD.

Life is good ... and while this Monday is quite grey (weather wise) I am sure the sun will shine again ... and this prediction is likely to be much more reliable than the prediction of the next dooms day scenario.

[Bobcat.]

Brent Oil has just now broken through $49/barrel, after breaching $50/b just 5 hours ago. It will probably bounce around a bit from here until the US Equity markets open tonight but this together with Futures sitting at -183 (Dow) and -23 (S&P500) is not a good sign (well, it's a good sign for Bears who are now short but not good for the bulls amongst us).

Copper and other commodities are also falling, and the Euro (EUR) and Yen (JPY) are rising...which you might've noticed happened right through to the night of the 25th (last Tuesday). Again all signs that US Equity markets will open much softer tonight.

The question is not will Equity markets fall again (probably this arvo and tonight) but to what extent and for how long.

Chartists like their hammers, crosses, EMA's, etc. Others prefer to be swayed more by company fundamentals; and they are both useful...but right now I'm finding the best indicators for Equity market direction are Index futures and the currency markets, with the EUR and JPY seemingly the safe haven of choice for the big players.

[Major von Tempsky]

As an economist I have to markedly differ from the somewhat ignorant rhubarb above, obviously written by people who are neither economists nor historians! I'll keep it short and simple.

(a) you can only really analyse economic history since 1945 since it is only since then that Keynesianism has held sway and governments (developed countries, most of them) and central bankers have understood what is going on. Friedmanism is the more recent approach used to conquer inflation and use interest rates and restrict aggregate demand.

(b) what's happening in stockmarkets is only ONE of the factors that Central Banks analyse before moving. Other factors such as inflation, economic growth, the balance of payments on current account, the state of employment, the various factor inputs known as "land" and the effect of current technological change.

"Bull" needs to go back to school.

[sb9]

http://www.smh.com.au/business/china/china-stockmarket-journalists-traders-officials-rounded-up-in-wake-of-panic-and-disorder-20150831-gjbled.html

Interesting read...

[Bobcat.]

Nikkei is currently down about 2%, with the Heng Seng down about 1%.

I know it depends more on today's and tonight's full sessions of trading, but...it does look like we will have another correction to the downside tonight on Wall Street. It would not have been foolish of those holding nzx or asx stocks prone to a sell off to have sold out today -- it's prudent risk mgmt.

Discl: apart from some precious metal stocks and a few small caps, I'm about 70% cashed up...and waiting.

[skid]

sorry Major--You may be an economist but you have provided precious little facts to back up your statemnts

Its interesting that those labeled ''worriers'' actually have very little reason to worry as they sit on the sidelines and watch this drama unfold with others investments.

Tomorrow will come--but many may be somewhat poorer due to complacency.

For the record--I didnt COME to Thailand to preserve my profits--I came to Southeast Asia compliments of the profit I preserved---That ''play money''--ie.paper profits/losses translates into real life experiences----for those that have the sense to listen to real facts ,rather than feel good cliches ,and end up with some actual money to do things-im available for travel tips...

Dont mistake caution for negativity---Think Ill go out for a coffee and to rent a motorbike for my last 2 week tour up north. before heading back to NZ for the spring..(maybe a camper van next?)

[stoploss]

As an economist I have to markedly differ from the somewhat ignorant rhubarb above, obviously written by people who are neither economists nor historians! I'll keep it short and simple.

(a) you can only really analyse economic history since 1945 since it is only since then that Keynesianism has held sway and governments (developed countries, most of them) and central bankers have understood what is going on. Friedmanism is the more recent approach used to conquer inflation and use interest rates and restrict aggregate demand.

(b) what's happening in stockmarkets is only ONE of the factors that Central Banks analyse before moving. Other factors such as inflation, economic growth, the balance of payments on current account, the state of employment, the various factor inputs known as "land" and the effect of current technological change.

"Bull" needs to go back to school.

Ok if you are going to make it personal by calling people ignorant , can everyone just remember- " Economists were invented to make weather forecasters look good "

[Bobcat.]

OK, well I happen to have a University degree in Economics and have learned enough about the 'discipline' to know that if you line up a dozen economists in a row they will all (whether deliberate or not) point in many, many different directions.

In itself, economics is usually found wanting..needing another discipline or two (finance, political science, a social science such anthropology, psychology or philosophy, even mathematics) to find its feet on Planet Earth well enough to offer a balanced worldview.

That's just my opinion.

[Crackity]

OK, well I happen to have a University degree in Economics and have learned enough about the 'discipline' to know that if you line up a dozen economists in a row they will all (whether deliberate or not) point in many, many different directions.

In itself, economics is usually found wanting..needing another discipline or two (finance, political science, a social science such anthropology, psychology or philosophy, even mathematics) to find its feet on Planet Earth well enough to offer a balanced worldview.

That's just my opinion.


Just for you Bobcat :)

Economists are people who are too smart for their own good and not smart enough for anyone else's. - See more at: http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-basics/a-look-at-some-of-the-best-jokes-about-economists#sthash.8gijYHhZ.dpuf

[couta1]

I doubt whether your average retail investor running a profit or a paper loss(Big or Small) would worry about the current trend, what will the trend be in 5 years time? Most would be happy to just keep collecting dividends unless they need their money right now, I wouldn't be foolish enough to realise my big paper losses at this time( I've learnt my lesson big time doing that in the past)

[noodles]

I doubt whether your average retail investor running a profit or a paper loss(Big or Small) would worry about the current trend, what will the trend be in 5 years time? Most would be happy to just keep collecting dividends unless they need their money right now, I wouldn't be foolish enough to realise my big paper losses at this time( I've learnt my lesson big time doing that in the past)

We have almost the opposite viewpoint. Firstly, I wouldn't let my paper losses get big at all as I want to preserve capital. I sell my losers because I don't think I'm smarter than the market. History tells us that the retail investors exit the markets at the worst possible time. I am very concerned that we are moving into a bear market. I don't want to endure the financial and emotional capital loss of a 2 year bear market.

I'm not calling a bear yet, but I'm watching very carefully.

[arc]

Cloggs: Thanks, good find, the writer certainly takes the shotgun approach to coverage, no depth but plenty of splatter.

From that article .. "On Wednesday August 19th, the minutes from the Fed’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting held at the end of July were due out."

It fits within the timeframe

Meeting end of July
Selldown appears to have started August 4-5-6-7?
Big selldowns August 11
Chinese devalue their currency August 12 (how strange)
Results of the July meeting announcement due for release August 19
Market-correction Escalates Friday 21, (it already existed but mom and pop were not aware)

Throw into the mix the slow down on gold mining 2 years ago, the drop in metals/iron/minerals, the volatile price of oil.. and the rest of the bucket list.

Skid: A motorbike tour, sounds good. I read an article a month or so ago on bike trails and organized tours through Asia, there was some guy here in NZ that organises the tour. I must do that one day soon... Would also love to do the Across America tour.

Denis: 2 year Bear, 2 year recovery 2 more years to get back to the present stock prices... IF they get back to these prices. The last actual bear was 2007-2008, 2011 was only a correction. 2008 --- 2015 7 long years. And companies do stop paying dividends when the price reaches some "psychologically disturbing level" for the directors. I expect most will stop if we see 30%+ drop in the next couple of months

http://infinitas.co/img.lib/aia-history.jpg


I am concerned that both AIR and AIA have both FAILED TO LAUNCH, and yet people think this is some sort of recovery??.

[Daytr]

Someone who claims to be an economist & yet didn't know who Ayn Rand was or her influence on Greenspan, let alone that it wasn't Greenspan that introduced quantitative easing... I'm not an economist, but I used to edit bank economist's publications for a bit of a reality check, before they sent it out to clients. Some are much better than others naturally & I found the ones that had some real world experience in markets were typically far more relevant than the ones who wrote from their book lined office. It can depend of course on how macro the subject is.


As an economist I have to markedly differ from the somewhat ignorant rhubarb above, obviously written by people who are neither economists nor historians! I'll keep it short and simple.

(a) you can only really analyse economic history since 1945 since it is only since then that Keynesianism has held sway and governments (developed countries, most of them) and central bankers have understood what is going on. Friedmanism is the more recent approach used to conquer inflation and use interest rates and restrict aggregate demand.

(b) what's happening in stockmarkets is only ONE of the factors that Central Banks analyse before moving. Other factors such as inflation, economic growth, the balance of payments on current account, the state of employment, the various factor inputs known as "land" and the effect of current technological change.

"Bull" needs to go back to school.

[skid]

OK, well I happen to have a University degree in Economics and have learned enough about the 'discipline' to know that if you line up a dozen economists in a row they will all (whether deliberate or not) point in many, many different directions.

In itself, economics is usually found wanting..needing another discipline or two (finance, political science, a social science such anthropology, psychology or philosophy, even mathematics) to find its feet on Planet Earth well enough to offer a balanced worldview.

That's just my opinion.

and a good one at that ,BC

[skid]

Someone who claims to be an economist & yet didn't know who Ayn Rand was or her influence on Greenspan, let alone that it wasn't Greenspan that introduced quantitative easing... I'm not an economist, but I used to edit bank economist's publications for a bit of a reality check, before they sent it out to clients. Some are much better than others naturally & I found the ones that had some real world experience in markets were typically far more relevant than the ones who wrote from their book lined office. It can depend of course on how macro the subject is.

Which eventually lead to the Asian crises(a long story,with many similarities to now in terms of the powerful money men making speculative and risky investments (in Asia)and causing bubbles because they were given the power to do so(by the US gov as Clinton was up to his neck in the Monica Lewenski scandal.)--Greenspan was at the helm--A long storey that had a big influence on how China drastically changed its economic policies.

just like the merchant bank bailouts in the last crises(gotta do something with that dosh)

[Daytr]

Another big night for oil, up 7-8% overnight!
Oil has now rallied 27% in 3 days, the biggest rally since the 1st gulf war!
Perhaps another Bush is going to take the Whitehouse....
Saudis say they are willing to talk to producers. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but the market read it as positive.
Personally I think this is an opportunity to short oil again, however looking at the chart $60 Brent can't be ruled out, but if we get there I will; be loading up short. Put in a small short posi this morning.
Interestingly even though oil markets have surged, equity markets were still down.

[silverblizzard888]

Another big night for oil, up 7-8% overnight!
Oil has now rallied 27% in 3 days, the biggest rally since the 1st gulf war!
Perhaps another Bush is going to take the Whitehouse....
Saudis say they are willing to talk to producers. I'm not sure what that means exactly, but the market read it as positive.
Personally I think this is an opportunity to short oil again, however looking at the chart $60 Brent can't be ruled out, but if we get there I will; be loading up short. Put in a small short posi this morning.
Interestingly even though oil markets have surged, equity markets were still down.

Hi Dayr I was wondering what service you are using to put you shorting order for oil.

[Daytr]

CMC Markets, they are the best I have come across for trading CFDs.


Hi Dayr I was wondering what service you are using to put you shorting order for oil.

[minimoke]

So much angst, so much analysis on this thread. Unlike the many happy investors in the Minimoke RNG Stock Picker which is proving to be not only very profitable but also bullet proof. Just checked out my position on the NZ Stock Picking competition and I'm up more than 2% from the middle of August position. Cant complain about that.

[Daytr]

Nice one Mini, but there has been no angst if you have been shorting the DOW & energy stocks since early this year and made a crapola load! ;-)
NZX is in the main a different kettle of fish and is somewhat insulated from some of the macro stuff happening overseas, unless you are talking about commodity based investments. The downturn there will filter through to other NZ companies as the spending and growth in the economy contracts. As the government seems hell bent on building roads & houses, construction and civil companies I would have thought re pretty good place to be, although Fletchers have proven you can even stuff up when given a gift horse.

[NZSilver]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/global-shares-fall-after-chinas-weak-pmi-data-1441094358

Here comes another drop by the looks - glad I'm all cashed up since last Monday.

[Baa_Baa]

Yep, DOW futures well down … again. Also glad to be out of large/mid caps.

[couta1]

Me too. Regardless of the money side of things, I am so very glad to be experiencing zero stress at the moment.
No stress here being all in , major stress would be cashing up and realising that large paper loss, funny how two opposite ends of the spectrum both result in no stress aye.

[easy money]

Me too. Regardless of the money side of things, I am so very glad to be experiencing zero stress at the moment.
I am thinking....Are we really likely to see another sharp sell-off soon...I am not so sure..the way Crude is moving..things may not be so bad..

[JBmurc]

glad to have some cash on the sidelines last sell-off made a nice 35% profit on the bounce of ELM.asx ....rest of the portfolio focused round Gold mostly producers selling in AUD....fat margins currently .... not stressed at all

[Daytr]

Saw NCM took another SP hit today, doesn't seem to be getting the same traction as some of the other goldies JB. Any reason for that you know of? Need to update my research.

[Baa_Baa]

No stress here being all in , major stress would be cashing up and realising that large paper loss, funny how two opposite ends of the spectrum both result in no stress aye.

With respect, you're not an 'average' investor Couta, as you bravely put, and I suggest 'most' in your situation would not agree to having low stress, but perhaps have made friends with Triazolam or some such alternative to assist a good night sleep. Jmo, good luck with your optimism.

[Hoop]

Lucky that Couta can write his own prescriptions eh? I would feel sorry for him, but he has chosen to ignore all the advice that has been given to him on these forums. But let it be a lesson to all others - if you are unwilling to admit to making an error of judgement and taking a small loss on the chin in the beginning, you had better be prepared for your mistakes to compound and ultimately result in massive losses from which you may never recover.

Very sound advice...

As they say........ "cut your losses short and let your profits run"

[skid]

Lucky that Couta can write his own prescriptions eh? I would feel sorry for him, but he has chosen to ignore all the advice that has been given to him on these forums. But let it be a lesson to all others - if you are unwilling to admit to making an error of judgement and taking a small loss on the chin in the beginning, you had better be prepared for your mistakes to compound and ultimately result in massive losses from which you may never recover.

Its like the ''faulty Towers'' of the economic world---They write tv scrips on how characters let a small thing amplify into a big ,in these cases hilarious plots--only this is real life ,and of course not hilarious--but as you say ,Coutts case could prevent this sort of thing from happening to others a hundred fold--but it is all to common(Ive done it myself on a much smaller scale(but learned my lesson)--I remember clearly Moosies ''long walk'' where he finally accepted his loss with DIL and got on with life.
IMO paper losses doers not make them fictional--We are all at a point in time with everything--where we go from that point is up to us.

It would be nice if ''time healed all wounds '' but it is not always the case

It has been somewhat of an illusion these past years-with all that easy money floating around from the US--and China leading the way with its insatiable appetite for any fodder required for its growth.

But both are changing now and its looking like a different game altogether out there--hopefully in the end it will at least be real.

[couta1]

Lucky that Couta can write his own prescriptions eh? I would feel sorry for him, but he has chosen to ignore all the advice that has been given to him on these forums. But let it be a lesson to all others - if you are unwilling to admit to making an error of judgement and taking a small loss on the chin in the beginning, you had better be prepared for your mistakes to compound and ultimately result in massive losses from which you may never recover. Don't forget I took a 100k loss in CNU while others held, I sold at $2.10 and then it went down to $1.30 ish, now what lesson did I learn there, simply if I had just held my shares for another 18months my 100k loss would have been a 30k profit as I could have sold when it got back to $3.16 ish. So while many may not agree with my approach there are many others that do, lets see how many of my stocks are still running paper losses in a few years time? that will be the proof of the pudding IMO.

[Joshuatree]

DOW, Nasdaq and S&P down re 3% ,vol not huge.

[Daytr]

Yep Couta1, if you are in good sound stocks with small or no debt and good cashflow etc, its not necessarily a bad thing to hold for the long term. But that does depend on how well valued they were at the time, i.e. PE etc. Not everyone is a trader in fact most people aren't and over time you generally make money by holding in the long term. There is nothing wrong with being a trader either and you can't argue that one is right and one is wrong as they are generally over much different time frames.

Oil smashed back down again around 7% eroding all yesterday's gains.
Equities smashed, everyone talking about China. I still think this is a massive mis-read or diversion.
Easy, blame China rather than something closer to home.
Speaking of close to home. The dairy auction overnight had another double digit bounce.
However Fonterra held back more product and only released 50% what they were a year ago.
This is a dangerous game. What happens to all the stock they are building up? They can't do that forever.
Memories of the butter mountain of the 1970s comes to mind.

[trader_jackson]

Fasten your seatbelts everyone...
(at least it was good to see milk price rebounding, but overseas markets not so good)

[Daytr]

That's easy when you hold 50% of the product back from the market. Only problem is, what do you do with the remaining 50%!
False optimism is what I would call it.
Can't make it all into Swiss Cheese ! haha


Fasten your seatbelts everyone...
(at least it was good to see milk price rebounding, but overseas markets not so good)

[noodles]

Don't forget I took a 100k loss in CNU while others held, I sold at $2.10 and then it went down to $1.30 ish, now what lesson did I learn there, simply if I had just held my shares for another 18months my 100k loss would have been a 30k profit as I could have sold when it got back to $3.16 ish. So while many may not agree with my approach there are many others that do, lets see how many of my stocks are still running paper losses in a few years time? that will be the proof of the pudding IMO.
I think the lesson from the CNU experience was that you lost control of the trade. As soon as the much anticipated pricing changes were announced, you should have sold. The events that unfolded with CNU meant that there was much uncertainly over the stock. Most expected that a capital raise would be required. If that had happened, the outcome would have been quite different.

Bottom line is that circumstances change with stocks and you need to act accordingly. If you can't interpret the events yourself, you should seek out a full service broker.

[twotic]

I think the lesson from the CNU experience was that you lost control of the trade. As soon as the much anticipated pricing changes were announced, you should have sold. The events that unfolded with CNU meant that there was much uncertainly over the stock. Most expected that a capital raise would be required. If that had happened, the outcome would have been quite different.

Bottom line is that circumstances change with stocks and you need to act accordingly. If you can't interpret the events yourself, you should seek out a full service broker.

Exactly! Couta, my memory may be hazy so correct me if I am wrong, but I recall you were in CNU as a trade simply to get the dividend. The fact that you held all the way down to $1.3 and lost 100k on a trade where presumably you were hoping to make a few thousand means you completely lost control of that one. The fact that it rebounded after you sold is irrelevant and my concern is that as a result you have appear to have convinced yourself of an entirely different lesson learnt.....one that is quite dangerous.

[nextbigthing]

That's easy when you hold 50% of the product back from the market. Only problem is, what do you do with the remaining 50%!
False optimism is what I would call it.
Can't make it all into Swiss Cheese ! haha

Release it onto the NZ domestic market so we can actually enjoy some 'fruits' of the labour, ie cheap dairy for NZ.

[Aaron]

Saw NCM took another SP hit today, doesn't seem to be getting the same traction as some of the other goldies JB. Any reason for that you know of? Need to update my research.
Not that I know anything but NCM keeps coming up as a sell in the "Bulls" 18 Share Tips. Haven't noticed if it is different firms though.
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/55438-18-share-tips---31-august-2015.html
It has come up as a sell more than once.

[couta1]

Twotic i sold at $2.10 not $1.30 anyway the principle still stands that those holding long would have lost nothing.(I'm not going to rehash the whole sorry saga step by step again) PS-Remember also that the National Govt had strongly indicated that they would overide the ComCom if they cut the Copper price giving many of us reason to hold onto the stock that bit longer.

[Daytr]

Well that might get rid of 5% of it.
NZ is by far the biggest exporter of dairy in the world.
That's one of our issues, our domestic market is tiny in comparison.
And its not the farmers that are keeping the price of dairy products in NZ its the supermarkets.

QUOTE=nextbigthing;589432]Release it onto the NZ domestic market so we can actually enjoy some 'fruits' of the labour, ie cheap dairy for NZ.[/QUOTE]

[twotic]

Twotic i sold at $2.10 not $1.30 anyway the principle still stands that those holding long would have lost nothing.(I'm not going to rehash the whole sorry saga step by step again)

OK, but the point still stands, you clearly lost control of your trade and as Denis said, surely that should be the lesson you take out of that one.

You may not be stressed about it all but reading your posts seriously stresses me out, and its not even my money that's being lost :(

I hope you are not getting caught up in the hype of BS internet forums and can see that there are some pretty seasoned investors that are trying to give you some quality advice.

[James108]

That's easy when you hold 50% of the product back from the market. Only problem is, what do you do with the remaining 50%!
False optimism is what I would call it.
Can't make it all into Swiss Cheese ! haha

You store it in SCL's warehouses (I hope).

[twotic]

Twotic i sold at $2.10 not $1.30 anyway the principle still stands that those holding long would have lost nothing.(I'm not going to rehash the whole sorry saga step by step again) PS-Remember also that the National Govt had strongly indicated that they would overide the ComCom if they cut the Coper price giving many of us reason to hold onto the stock.

Again, if the point of your trade was to grab a divie and then jump out then none of that medium to long term stuff should have mattered.

[BIRMANBOY]

Firstly if you are a seasoned investor...you should know better than give advice.
Secondly, making pronouncements on other investors strategies, results and losses is presumptuous since "you" are not privy to all the details that go into that investors decision making.
Thirdly, yes you are right, there is an awful lot of BS on internet forums. This thread has recently acquired a portion of it.
Lastly, hindsight is a great clarifier...its just unfortunate we cannot arrange some advance notice.

OK, but the point still stands, you clearly lost control of your trade and as Denis said, surely that should be the lesson you take out of that one.

You may not be stressed about it all but reading your posts seriously stresses me out, and its not even my money that's being lost :(

I hope you are not getting caught up in the hype of BS internet forums and can see that there are some pretty seasoned investors that are trying to give you some quality advice.

[noodles]

You store it in SCL's warehouses (I hope).
SCL don't hold Fonterra milk powder. Just chilled stuff. butter etc. Unfortunately, Fonterra is not stock-piling this.

[twotic]

Firstly if you are a seasoned investor...you should know better than give advice.
Secondly, making pronouncements on other investors strategies, results and losses is presumptuous since "you" are not privy to all the details that go into that investors decision making.
Thirdly, yes you are right, there is an awful lot of BS on internet forums. This thread has recently acquired a portion of it.
Lastly, hindsight is a great clarifier...its just unfortunate we cannot arrange some advance notice.


1) I'm not advising him to buy or sell anything. But this forum is about sharing thoughts, opinions etc etc. You've just shared yours and so have I - no harm in either!
2) I never said I was a seasoned investor, I suggested that there are others out there who are and if you read some of the posts there is some pretty sound advice.
3) Couta came on this very forum to ask for advice on his CNU predicament. He was very clear about the details of the situation he was in. I am not being presumptuous at all. So perhaps go back and read his posts and get your facts right!
4) You are right, hindsight is a wonderful thing. Can't get it in advance unfortunately, but it doesn't stop us learning from the past :)

[NZSilver]

Great stuff, too right re investors - many say when to buy but they don't necc say when to sell on forums!

Lastly, hindsight is a great clarifier...its just unfortunate we cannot arrange some advance notice - well put

[couta1]

Hey at the end of the day I'm the first to admit to being my own worst enemy a lot of the time and in my early time on here listened to too much hype and BS also which cost me a lot, I've sorted the latter mainly but are still working on the former. Looks like a black Wednesday weather wise and market wise.

[twotic]

Hey at the end of the day I'm the first to admit to being my own worst enemy a lot of the time and in my early time on here listened to too much hype and BS also which cost me a lot, I've sorted the latter mainly but are still working on the former. Looks like a black Wednesday weather wise and market wise.

By the way Couta, I genuinely wish you all the best with you investments.

[James108]

SCL don't hold Fonterra milk powder. Just chilled stuff. butter etc. Unfortunately, Fonterra is not stock-piling this.

Thanks for that, where did you come by this info? Would be interested to know more about what products specifically get stored.

If it is in company reports/presentations my bad I thought I looked through these.

[arc]

Seems a lot of people are "Seriously Shorting" the market.
I personally dont like the look of it. The Chartists amoungst you folk will see the obvious peaks and apparent-but-false supports hovering around $2:00 which evaporated resulting in $1:00 -$1:50 range

A view from 2002-2015 from the perspective of AIR, and shared by many many other companies.

http://infinitas.co/img.lib/air.png

The double headed peak has already passed.
Are any of you big players here honestly not shorting the market at the moment?.

[nextbigthing]

You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.

To be fair though KW, doesn't that just simply prove the need for sufficient diversification in Coutas strategy, in which case you could probably pick three stocks that would've also blitzed the market in that portfolio?

[h2so4]

[QUOTE=KW;589457]You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.


Amen!!!!!!

[Corleone]

You mean stocks like Woolworths, ANZ Bank and Telstra? Good businesses, pay good dividends, recession proof, etc. But NEVER confuse a good company with a good investment! If you were a TLS, ANZ or WOW holder you would be sitting on shares that are the same price as back in 2000 (TLS) and 2006 (WOW and ANZ) (with all going lower once again during this bear market). Buy and Hold and Pray is not how you make money. Making intelligent decisions about what to invest in, how long to hold for, and when to sell is how you manage investments for the optimum return. Good luck Couta - maybe in another 10-15 years your investments "may" come right.

757075697571

Well Said KW. In early 2007 I naively walked off the street into NZ's most reputable stock brokers/ financial planners and handed them 40K to weave their magic. 8 + years on only 1 of the 7 stocks have recovered and made a profit. These are some big names often trumpeted as solid reliable earners on these forums (TEM, GMT, WPL, IFT, cant recall the others). I have made some decent headway recovering my losses by selling at a loss and reinvesting after doing my own research.

The strategy of buy and hold forever or 'wait it out' would have resulted in pure loss for me, money down the drain, I dont see these stocks reaching those levels again in the next 5 years. The opportunity cost on real estate or the term deposits of the mid 00's doesnt bare thinking about. Lessons learnt, hope it helps others.

[noodles]

Thanks for that, where did you come by this info? Would be interested to know more about what products specifically get stored.

If it is in company reports/presentations my bad I thought I looked through these.
Andy Borland was asked this question in the recent analyst conference call.

Other than that, I wouldn't know any more than what was in their IPO investment statement.

[Bobcat.]

Buy on the way up, sell on the way down! Why? Because of momentum.

It sounds simple - so why do we find it so difficult to do? I think it's mainly psychological. We love money to the extent that we are tempted to :

a) buy into stocks that are cheaper today than they were yesterday (looking for bargains); and
b) hesitate to sell stocks if we could've reaped more selling them yesterday.

It's the pride and greed within that work against us - in that sense we can be our own worst enemies.

Reality Check: If a stock's price is trending upward, it's much more likely that tomorrow it will be higher still. The converse is also true for stock prices trending downward - almost certainly lower tomorrow. When we ignore the trend and instead try to pick tops and bottoms, whilst self-satisfying on the very odd occasion when we get it right(!), it is not only a grubby business but risk prone and costly.

Solution: surf the momentum, up and down. Where it's difficult to gauge momentum, put in a stop loss to preserve capital. It's better to cut your losses (or profit take, if it's a trailing stop) than to rue the day that you never sold when clearly there had been a momentum/trend shift to the downside (e.g. PEB). Both Fundamental Analysis and Chart Technical Analysis help determine good entry/exit points (i.e. by improving the risk/reward ratio)...but let's not forget that the trend is our friend - show some loyalty.

[James108]

If you subscribe to Buffet/Ben Grahams investment philosophy you do not sell because the share price is down. Although often the share price may be down because something fundamentally changed about the business, in which case it may be a good idea to sell.

I am surprised so many of you do not follow the value based approach.

[Traderx]

Buy on the way up, sell on the way down! Why? Because of momentum.

It sounds simple - so why do we find it so difficult to do? I think it's mainly psychological. We love money to the extent that we are tempted to :

a) buy into stocks that are cheaper today than they were yesterday (looking for bargains); and
b) hesitate to sell stocks if we could've reaped more selling them yesterday.

It's the pride and greed within that work against us - in that sense we can be our own worst enemies.

Reality Check: If a stock's price is trending upward, it's much more likely that tomorrow it will be higher still. The converse is also true for stock prices trending downward - almost certainly lower tomorrow. When we ignore the trend and instead try to pick tops and bottoms, whilst self-satisfying on the very odd occasion when we get it right(!), it is not only a grubby business but risk prone and costly.

Solution: surf the momentum, up and down. Where it's difficult to gauge momentum, put in a stop loss to preserve capital. It's better to cut your losses (or profit take, if it's a trailing stop) than to rue the day that you never sold when clearly there had been a momentum/trend shift to the downside (e.g. PEB). Both Fundamental Analysis and Chart Technical Analysis help determine good entry/exit points (i.e. by improving the risk/reward ratio)...but let's not forget that the trend is our friend - show some loyalty.

I would love to see those espousing trading systems on here (if you can call them that) to post all their trades as they happen so we can judge their expertise (after tax and trading costs) vs actual investors.

[Nasi Goreng]

The above examples are of companies that one would be likely to buy and hold for the long term - I am illustrating that the concept of "long term" might be very long indeed.

Personally, I take the approach that no matter how diversified you are, there is no place for loss making stocks in your portfolio.

Something else that I take from this is that to lose $100k in one stock means you either have a large portfolio or you were not well diversified in the first place. I don't like to keep choosing Couta's examples but he does put himself out there so hopefully doesn't mind the discussion.

For me that would be a massive chunk of my portfolio and I can't imagine myself ever putting so much on the line on one company no matter how good the prospects look. I typically have about 8-12 stocks, half of which are international. I do consider my portfolio to be buy and hold although if the circumstances change, I'm not opposed to selling. For those 8-12 stocks, I don't like any of them getting above 12% of total portfolio although that does sometimes happen and its more of a guideline than a firm rule. I'm not suggesting this is the way to go but for me, its something I feel comfortable with and allows me to focus on their results and forecasts.

[Nasi Goreng]

I would love to see those espousing trading systems on here (if you can call them that) to post all their trades as they happen so we can judge their expertise (after tax and trading costs) vs actual investors.

There are not too many who post here who air their dirty laundry.

[Traderx]

Something else that I take from this is that to lose $100k in one stock means you either have a large portfolio or you were not well diversified in the first place. I don't like to keep choosing Couta's examples but he does put himself out there so hopefully doesn't mind the discussion.

For me that would be a massive chunk of my portfolio and I can't imagine myself ever putting so much on the line on one company no matter how good the prospects look. I typically have about 8-12 stocks, half of which are international. I do consider my portfolio to be buy and hold although if the circumstances change, I'm not opposed to selling. For those 8-12 stocks, I don't like any of them getting above 12% of total portfolio although that does sometimes happen and its more of a guideline than a firm rule. I'm not suggesting this is the way to go but for me, its something I feel comfortable with and allows me to focus on their results and forecasts.

Diversification is the only free lunch in finance, and I would suggest that 8-12 should be bare minimum, 20+ would be more acceptable. If that can't be done economically then the majority of your holdings should be in widely diversified funds (i.e index funds) with perhaps a small amount of individual holdings if you must.

My 2c based on my research of what actually works.

[Nasi Goreng]

That's a fair call. I should have said that 2 of my 12 are currently etf's which don't get talked about a lot on here but are a great investment vehicle for certain sectors. I hold IXJ and XLF which were both doing really well until a few weeks ago. I recently sold IEU, European ETF during the Greek crisis. I thought selling that was a mistake as NZD and AUD both tanked and Euro stocks were rebounding which made me look a bit silly but the last few weeks have made me feel better about that decision.

[benjitara]

If you subscribe to the Buffet/Graham philosophy you would only be buying stocks at substantial discounts to value - which is impossible in current markets. !

There have been a number of companies trading at well below their intrinsic value over the past two years in the New Zealand stock market. Value investors still have had ample opportunities to acquire value at large discounts lately.

[h2so4]

Something else that I take from this is that to lose $100k in one stock means you either have a large portfolio or you were not well diversified in the first place. I don't like to keep choosing Couta's examples but he does put himself out there so hopefully doesn't mind the discussion.

For me that would be a massive chunk of my portfolio and I can't imagine myself ever putting so much on the line on one company no matter how good the prospects look. I typically have about 8-12 stocks, half of which are international. I do consider my portfolio to be buy and hold although if the circumstances change, I'm not opposed to selling. For those 8-12 stocks, I don't like any of them getting above 12% of total portfolio although that does sometimes happen and its more of a guideline than a firm rule. I'm not suggesting this is the way to go but for me, its something I feel comfortable with and allows me to focus on their results and forecasts.

You have some portfolio rules that sound ok. Stick to it.

Something I think Mohnish Pabai does is dump all his excess funds money into one stock if he can't find any suitable investments. That stock is Bershire Hathaway.

[twotic]

That's a fair call. I should have said that 2 of my 12 are currently etf's which don't get talked about a lot on here but are a great investment vehicle for certain sectors. I hold IXJ and XLF which were both doing really well until a few weeks ago. I recently sold IEU, European ETF during the Greek crisis. I thought selling that was a mistake as NZD and AUD both tanked and Euro stocks were rebounding which made me look a bit silly but the last few weeks have made me feel better about that decision.

Yup, ETFs IMO should be discussed more. They are a great way to diversify, particularly for investors that don't have a whole lot of money to diversify by buying lots of individual stocks. I held several ETFs from roughly 2010 to 2014 and did really well with limited stress. I did my research on them all, picked the sectors/countries I liked (health, property, IT, US) and just sat back and watched them for 4 years. The fees are a downside, but if you get in during a solid bull market you can handle the fees no probs. The other issue I had is that Direct Broking didn't offer many and I had to go off shore for a few (increasing the fees even more).

[Hoop]

Twotic i sold at $2.10 not $1.30 anyway the principle still stands that those holding long would have lost nothing.(I'm not going to rehash the whole sorry saga step by step again) PS-Remember also that the National Govt had strongly indicated that they would overide the ComCom if they cut the Copper price giving many of us reason to hold onto the stock that bit longer.

Couta you did the right thing getting out of your long term investment at $2.10..It was a sudden drop so getting out would've be hard to do...For many people ushing the sell button is a very hard thing to do..so well done Couta....TA had earlier sell signals but I won't harp on about TA here as the modified more active Buy and hold long term strategy mentioned below succeeds without using TA..Couta you achieved the capital preservation mission of getting out and let CNU continue falling without you...

Where you failed was forgetting your previous objective which was wanting CNU as a long term stock in your portfolio...therefore, you didn't have a plan to get back into CNU.

After about 20 years of long term investing using buy and hold strategy and getting nowhere.. I refined my buy and hold principles but kept to my long term objective as still having these shares at some future date..However when those rare bear cycles came around I sold and then later bought back in. Back then without using TA ...I never tried to time a top to sell out and never tried to time a bottom to get back in...That didn't matter so much in the very long term..

With the money from the previous sell I managed to buy all my shares back at a cheaper price and end up with more shares than before

E.g Chorus..Ok sell all 100,000 @ $2.10 as the share price is diving, as you did Couta....CNU flattens out at $1.40 is this the end? maybe, maybe not..you wait for a possible next wave of selling it doesn't happen so you buy in with the money you sold out with at lets say $1.70 and instead of having 100,000 shares this time you now have 123,500 shares and a better future yield rate for your original capital outlay as your original long term buy and "hold?" objective is now back on track.....

[benjitara]

Or are those companies trading below value because they are dogs with poor future prospects? Just because something is cheap doesnt make it a good investment either.

There's a big difference between a dog and value. and it's generally easy to see. I'm also against diversification in a portfolio. That's ridiculous in my book. a limited amount of stocks, bought under intrinsic value with sound future prospects is a solid position to find yourself in.

[ratkin]

Yup, ETFs IMO should be discussed more. They are a great way to diversify, particularly for investors that don't have a whole lot of money to diversify by buying lots of individual stocks. I held several ETFs from roughly 2010 to 2014 and did really well with limited stress. I did my research on them all, picked the sectors/countries I liked (health, property, IT, US) and just sat back and watched them for 4 years. The fees are a downside, but if you get in during a solid bull market you can handle the fees no probs. The other issue I had is that Direct Broking didn't offer many and I had to go off shore for a few (increasing the fees even more).

Have been having a good look at some of those listed in oz. Many of the commodity ones will be very interesting once they actually bottom out

[Daytr]

Yeah the ones that survive. Ones that aren't loaded up with debt are likely to survive to state the bleedin obvious.

A couple of holidays to note coming up with Labour day in the US on Monday and I think China is out for most of next week to celebrate victory over Japan day and as its a big anniversary they are doing week long celebrations I think this year rather than just a 1 day observance.
So markets could get interesting if they aren't already in the next couple of nights. Cash will probably be king, so it may depend if the market is currently short or nervous longs want to cash up.
Typically in the US markets this ti e of year are a snooze, not this year!


Have been having a good look at some of those listed in oz. Many of the commodity ones will be very interesting once they actually bottom out

[twotic]

Have been having a good look at some of those listed in oz. Many of the commodity ones will be very interesting once they actually bottom out
Good luck :) I don't know anything about commodities but I presume tides will turn again eventually. When they do I guess there will be a bunch of $ top be made.

[James108]

Or are those companies trading below value because they are dogs with poor future prospects? Just because something is cheap doesnt make it a good investment either.

If they were dogs they likely wouldn't be "below value", unless they were trading rock bottom, eg. below net cash.

In response to your previous post, buffet has been buying stocks in this market. And yes he does "buy low and sell high", aka buying undervalued stocks and selling them when they are overvalued. I would also say that early to mid 19th century style value, where companies sometimes trade below their working capital, may not return for a long time. In this case holding cash and waiting for a return to these levels of value may be a poor option, but you can still use the principles espoused by graham/buffet to invest. One of the foremost principles is to compare value with like companies.

People are very misguided if they think buying anything at any price and holding forever is value investing. I dont claim to be any good at value investing, I have made a few poor purchases by not considering important factors and I have also made a few good ones. I am learning though and my analysis is becoming higher quality and more in depth, extra study in accounting/finance would likely help.

[PSE]

Most people think it means buying in a little dip and pretending you haven't lost money. Bring on the crash :t_up:

[JBmurc]

Saw NCM took another SP hit today, doesn't seem to be getting the same traction as some of the other goldies JB. Any reason for that you know of? Need to update my research.

Not sure exactly ...pulled down with the rest of the majors sentiment driven ... I see Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley have been net buyers of late ....

From One year ago AUD gold has increased 15.5% yet NCM SP wise hasn't moved much ...

Great Buy IMHO

[sb9]

Looks like the Asian markets are bouncing back and US futures up about 1%.

[Daytr]

It is looking reasonable value especially with that debt reduction.
I wouldn't say its a screaming buy, but its looking better that it did that's for sure.


Not sure exactly ...pulled down with the rest of the majors sentiment driven ... I see Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley have been net buyers of late ....

From One year ago AUD gold has increased 15.5% yet NCM SP wise hasn't moved much ...

Great Buy IMHO

[JBmurc]

Yes maybe not a great BUY as they have their DEBT in USD ....but a long term HOLD BUY on a sentimental change on a higher AUD GOLD price ...1700oz to be passed next year IMHO

[Bobcat.]

It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better...

http://www.wnd.com/2015/09/statistician-data-proves-shemitah-financial-collapse/

[arc]

London: Thoughts on China market correction.. 50% decline possible, back to year 2005.

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/cnbc/playlist.html?id=3000415558

Still some negativity around but todays European mkt open looks better

[skid]

I know this i8s not groundbreaking,but I have spoken to several Chinese on my travels in southeast Asia--One said alot of his friends have lost more than 50% on the sharemarket---Another ,a school teacher mentioned alot are losing their jobs---There are still heaps traveling around(the tourist landscape has changed considerably in recent years towards Chinese) but it will be interesting to see how things look in a years time when this works its way through(if it keeps up)

[arc]

An interesting development: Looks like news services have minimised share mkt problems and are now talking about other matters.

Do we take this as a sign that they have simply had enough and are bored with the topic
Do we see an attitude-shift in both mkts and news and perhaps a halt (temporary??) in declines
Have multiple countries now exited the Chinese mkt and so are feeling "safer" with domestic or anything not asian

Both Apple and Microsoft have risen this morning..

I am still mining the data but it looks more and more like this is a narrowly focused stock market event and not so much an actual worldwide sudden downturn in macro economics, Dont get me wrong, There is economic uncertainty but it has not fundamentally changed that much in the last month. I am wondering if this latest stock market event will "eventually" spill over to economic/industrial arenas and then provide acceleration to the global downturn. If so then we will have a full blown Bear in a few weeks time, If not then this may be just a speed bump and not the Titanic that everyone thinks it is.

I am still quietly amazed by the fragility of the market.
But then again as we have found out... there is non market driven actions motivating correction-events. The hard part is ascertaining the primary drivers and objectives

[BlackPeter]

An interesting development: Looks like news services have minimised share mkt problems and are now talking about other matters.

Do we take this as a sign that they have simply had enough and are bored with the topic
Do we see an attitude-shift in both mkts and news and perhaps a halt (temporary??) in declines
Have multiple countries now exited the Chinese mkt and so are feeling "safer" with domestic or anything not asian

Both Apple and Microsoft have risen this morning..

I am still mining the data but it looks more and more like this is a narrowly focused stock market event and not so much an actual worldwide sudden downturn in macro economics, Dont get me wrong, There is an economic downturn but it has not fundamentally changed that much in the last month. I am wondering if this latest stock market event will "eventually" spill over to economic/industrial arenas and then provide acceleration to the global downturn.

I am still quietly amazed by the fragility of the market

Maybe it just means they discovered that there is really not too much "news" to report. Resources are now down for a long time (though some seem to come up again), Shanghai might have found a new level ... and you can only speculate that much on whether it is going up, down or sidewards from here - and other stock markets jitter as they always do.

Doomsday prophets do what they always do ... but people still keep eating, drinking, dressing, working, driving cars, living in and building new houses, going out, having holidays and spend money in many other ways.

Actually - just looked at my watch list - and a number of stocks I always was interested in, but which felt too dear look now more reasonable priced. On the other hand - some still look overvalued. Time to wait or time to buy? In my view certainly not a time to sell ...

Hope you enjoy your time on the boat in the "deep pacific" (does this mean you are on a submarine?) ... but is monitoring the business news really the best thing you can do on it;)?

DYOR.

[LAC]

... but people still keep eating, drinking, dressing, working, driving cars, living in and building new houses, going out, having holidays and spend money in many other ways.


DYOR.

Couldn't have said it better:)

[couta1]

It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better...

http://www.wnd.com/2015/09/statistician-data-proves-shemitah-financial-collapse/
Yes another poster sent me a pm regarding this, its interesting but I'd take predictions with specific time frames with a grain of salt. From a Christian perspective the sequence of events has been outlined for us in the book of Revelation and so the stock markets of the world will continue to go up and down until the time of Revelation chapter 18(The fall of Babylon)

[Baa_Baa]

Morgan Stanley has issued a "full house" buy alert on international stock markets for the first time since early 2009, effectively calling the bottom of this summer’s equity slump. The US investment bank said that all five of its market-timing signals are now flashing a buy signal as selling-fever reaches capitulation levels. This is a rare occurrence, typically leading to a V-shaped recovery that delivers a 23pc gain in stock prices over the following 12 months. [snip] ... go here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com (https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.livewiremarkets.com%2Ffeed s%2Flatest%3Fwelcome%3Dtrue&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNHSeRT3grRjAarFiYvETw0LABZlYA)

[Joshuatree]

Lack of volume in shares traded doesn't suggest a capitulation from what I've looked at;although i haven't checked vol last few days.

[Crackity]

Morgan Stanley has issued a "full house" buy alert on international stock markets for the first time since early 2009, effectively calling the bottom of this summer’s equity slump. The US investment bank said that all five of its market-timing signals are now flashing a buy signal as selling-fever reaches capitulation levels. This is a rare occurrence, typically leading to a V-shaped recovery that delivers a 23pc gain in stock prices over the following 12 months. [snip] ... go here: https://www.livewiremarkets.com (https://www.google.com/url?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.livewiremarkets.com%2Ffeed s%2Flatest%3Fwelcome%3Dtrue&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNHSeRT3grRjAarFiYvETw0LABZlYA)


To me this says their proprietary trading desk has a shed load of stock to sell and is about to go short in a big way....

Pardon my cynicism :)

[Crackity]

Moronic comment of the week follows....


Joe Hockey: 'there is no risk of recession in Australia'

[troyvdh]

Couta...are you taking the Michael or what..I hope so.

[Bobcat.]

Interesting KW - thanks. What you write ties in with a lot of what I've been reading and thinking. Something else to consider - the price of gold is likely to rise now as US interest rate rises evaporate short term, and as we get properly into the Sept/Oct buying season (Chinese and Indian mainly). Once the gold and silver related ETFs start to dive they will gather momentum quickly (esp those that do not have physical bullion under them) which again will bring upward pressure to the price of precious metals.

That together with China wanting to maintain/improve credibility w.r.t. its currency (ahead of next month's IMF SDR meeting) will want to stabilise the Yuan with a gold backing...their purchases this month are likely to rocket IMO.

Discl: buying up gold & silver digger stocks right through this week. Good value today for example in MML and PRU.

[Daytr]

Crackity, with two posts you gained my immediate respect! haha
Fellow cynic!

[sb9]

Looks like market rally this morning has lost steam.....may be we should summon Morgan Stanley to come and grab bargains here, if they see that way.

[arc]

KW: Thank you , that is interesting and a good perspective on the bigger picture. I am going to start making a note of these "side factors" that relate & interrelate with stock price action and think of just how to incorporate it into the ai-model im working on.

Bobcat: Yes gold price action and indeed all precious metals will be interesting to see what they do in the next few weeks.

[RTM]

So along with your summary below KW, you would then expect companies to significantly reduce their dividends ? As if they do not...and PE's are reduced significantly, won't it follow that if divies remain the same, the % return becomes "unusually" high ? Have I got this right ?


In a nutshell, the root cause is the current currency war that nations are engaged in. The Chinese economy is slowing down, property and equity markets have crashed, and the Chinese Govt is devaluing the currency. This has triggered a big outflow of capital from China as the Chinese seek to protect their fortunes - which had been happening all year (and which is showing up most obviously as Chinese buyers of international property) but it has accelerated in the last few weeks as a result of the recent Chinese devaluation of the Yuan.

In order to convert Yuan to foreign currency China needs to buy foreign currency - which means selling US Treasuries. A flood of US Treasuries hitting the market pushes the price of them down and causes interest rates to rise (and most of the worlds borrowing is linked to the 10 year rate on US Treasuries). This is the opposite of Quantitative Easing - lets call it Quantitative Tightening. So while the US was looking to raise interest rates themselves they cannot as China is now dictating their fiscal policy - if they raise interest rates they are tightening into a tightening (way too much too soon, will damage the US economy). Depending on how much US Treasuries China is dumping, the US may even have to reverse course and start buying them = QE4 - the exact opposite of what they want to do. Best bet is the US sit tight and do nothing, and hope that China can in some way restrict the amount of capital flight (which is apparently happening as China crack down on shadow banking and illegal money transfer agents) so that the US can regain control of their own interest rate setting.

Bad news for Australians and Aucklanders though - if China does restrict people from taking money out of the country, you can kiss goodbye to the property boom.

There are other things going on such as the currency carry trade that is unwinding as a result of the devaluation, that could pose even greater risks down the line, but no-one knows how that will actually play out.

So no - this is not a stock market hiccup, there are serious issues at the heart of it, that are concerning those who control the money. Which is why this is not being communicated to the average punter - only a keep calm, and buy the dip message. For what Qantitative Easing did to drive up the share market, Quantitative Tightening will drive it back down. There is a lot of liquidating of assets to be done, before the public patsies get wind of any problems, and start to sell too.

And while the average business will keep on trucking on - it is likely that the days of paying 20 times earnings for an average business is over, if we return to historical valuations that business will be repriced to 10 times earnings. Every stock is at risk of having its P/E compressed significantly - this is called a bear market, the time when price finally meets value :-)

[BlackPeter]

No, the yields will go back to normal. At the moment yields are very low. Most Australian REITs are sitting on 4-5% yield - they should be around 7-8%. The rest of them will reduce their dividends because the economy is slowing - see recent Australia GDP and Retail Sales figures. Companies exposed to the slowing economy will cop a double whammy - falling earnings and P/E compression. Falling dividends will be compensated somewhat by rising yields. We have enjoyed a very low risk environment for equity so dividend yields have been low (low risk, low return) - as its risk on now those yields need to rise. Prior to this correction/bear market I thought it would happen naturally as interest rates rise, but now it looks as though it will happen via price falls. Which means I have some thinking to do about how long I want to stay invested in my AREITs :-(

NZ companies have always traded on low P/Es (to reflect lack of growth opportunities) and high yields. There will likely be some adjustment but overall I think the NZ market is better insulated. May be better to ask someone who remembers what NZ companies P/E and yields used to be 25 years ago to determine how much change will occur.

Hi KW, interesting theory. However just wondering - if you propose that stock yields will return back to normal, what happens with the interest rates? If interest rates stay low, than why would than anybody still hold bonds or leave money in the bank account to get 1 to 3%, if they can get 8% yield from their shares?

The reason for stock yields going that low (PE that high) in the first place have been the low interest rates. People just bought stocks because they promised higher interest rates, and the buying demand increased stock prices and dropped stock yields.

If you now propose that stock yields go up again, than either interest rates need to go up together with them, or otherwise the same thing will happen again (people moving into stocks and pushing prices up, yields down). Personally I am not sure which of the scenarios it will be, but I don't think that anybody would like the low PE / high interest rate scenario. Most industrialised countries (including US) would not be able to afford paying say 4 to 6 % interest on their debts - i.e. if interest rates would go that high, than we would look at some serious (and I mean SERIOUS) market crashes (and I am not even sure, whether the BEAR could help us in such a scenario).

IMHO - better hope everybody keeps interest rates low and PE's high. I am however sure that the FED's of the world are quite in agreement over this goal and happy to use their tools in sync.

Always an optimist, but I guess time will tell ....

[Daytr]

Speaking of optimism, I have put my toe in the water for the first time in the Indian market & bought the index this morning.
I remember from my gold days how much the price of fuel impacted the average Indian as they use a lot of diesel for power generation and fuel for cooking etc. With such a low oil price you would think its putting more money back into the average Indian's pocket.
Its a real speccy punt, but it looks like a reasonable level on the chart as well.
So far so good, up 1% ;-)

[nextbigthing]

Without wanting to go down the conspiracy theory path, I wonder how much the US and China will try and use this as an opportunity to gain financial superiority at the expense of the other, and what implications this will have for us as investors. Similar to OPEC not cutting production to hurt the 'frackers'.

If we can work out what one side might be up to, then there's obviously the potential for huge gains.

[couta1]

Couta...are you taking the Michael or what..I hope so.
Definitely not, grab yourself a modern translation and have a read of said chapter, if you have trouble with understanding then send me a pm but I'll give you a major headstart, Babylon equals the world financial systems and markets.

[Bobcat.]

In the USA, it's illegal to export oil. There's moves afoot to change that. Fracking, etc has meant the USA is now self-sufficient (in fact with a surplus of oil, with 4.6mb of US inventory announced today against an expected 0.32mb), which is why the price per barrel for US crude is less than for Brent oil.

Much of the rise in US job numbers these past two years have been in the Energy industry, mainly due to fracking. There have been a lot of layoffs lately and so there's political pressure to begin exporting oil. That being the case, and with a Bear market, we could easily see it fall to under $40/b and stay there for quite a while. That together with low commodity prices should in theory help economies recover...but we haven't seen much recovery over the past twelve months of falling commodity prices, have we.

There is something seriously broken, and with very little room to further lower interest rates to stimulate growth, Central Banks may (for the first time ever?) no longer have all the monetary tools required to fix it...hence the currency wars. It's getting to be dog-eat-dog.

Deflationary? Inflationary? Either way, precious metals silver and gold will come into play again...especially once people realise that interest rate rises are off the table.

Who's your pick for the next devaluation? I'm picking Japan...again. The Yen has strengthened quite a bit lately (about 5% against most major currencies this past month) - no wonder their exporters are finding it tough.

[RTM]

I had thought that printing lots of money (QE) in USA etc ultimately led to high inflation, or at least some inflation, unless it was accompanied by corresponding increases in productivity / output.. And that that inevitably led to increasing interest rates. Yet we don't seem to be seeing much inflation at all in the USA.....maybe I just need to wait a bit longer and it will happen ???


My post was predicated on the assumption that interest rates are rising - see my previous post. But no-one is suggesting 4-6%. Estimates are around 200 basis points (from China treasury/carry trade impact) or 25 points if US acts.
Except Australia, where interest rates will be going down as it slides into recession and we all know what that means for stock market prices, company earnings and yields.

But the end of QE means we are supposed to be heading back into an environment where interest rates will rise as the US tries to return to a more normal fiscal policy. The hiccups at the moment are because China is interfering with that slow normalisation process, and derailing all the emerging economies as it tries to fix its own problems by devaluing its currency. Which just starts a currency war, which no-one wins.

PS. Read today that if China devalues again, commodity prices could drop another 25% :-)

[Baa_Baa]

Look up 'Competitive Currency Debasement'.

[percy]

Sorry to interrupt this thread,but I see the highly respected Noodles has been banned.!!!
I would like to know why.!??

[Crackity]

Sorry to interrupt this thread,but I see the highly respected Noodles has been banned.!!!
I would like to know why.!??

Noodles and Denis same person apparently Percy - on the insider thread....regards! Hopefully he is allowed back.

[percy]

Noodles and Denis same person apparently Percy - on the insider thread....regards! Hopefully he is allowed back.

So what.!!
Hells bells, Noodles was/is the only person left on sharetrader doing any good research,and then sharing it.!!
Well, if he is not allowed back there is not much point visiting the site.!

[Onion]

Sorry to interrupt this thread,but I see the highly respected Noodles has been banned.!!!
I would like to know why.!??

Has he been banned? I thought that the two identities had just been merged.

[Crackity]

So what.!!
Hells bells, Noodles was/is the only person left on sharetrader doing any good research,and then sharing it.!!
Well, if he is not allowed back there is not much point visiting the site.!

Snoopy might get offended here Percy!

[Crackity]

Has he been banned? I thought that the two identities had just been merged.

Yes and yes - hopefully not banned forever....

[percy]

Snoopy might get offended here Percy!

I stand by my comment.
"good research".

[couta1]

Has he been banned? I thought that the two identities had just been merged.
Using 2 identities cops a ban and it should be of a desent length IMO if integrity means anything on this forum anymore?

[Joshuatree]

Noodles is excellent at research ; and ,sharing it without spruikng but i wouldn't put anyone on a pedestal or rate besties; some very diff angles and research styles. Roger is very good at research but its reduced somewhat by all the frequent , relentless spin in any stock he is in. Have to admit its weird Noodleshaving two alias's though; not exactly transparent, and motive; hopefully harmless and entertaining. Should be back , i hope in a few days.

[percy]

Using 2 identities cops a ban and it should be of a desent length IMO if integrity means anything on this forum anymore?

I am looking for informed research on this site.
You would be a very wealthy person if you had followed his posts.

[couta1]

I am looking for informed research on this site.
You would be a very wealthy person if you had followed his posts.
As I've already mentioned on the Peb thread, I give Noodles a lot of Kudos and don't put his offending in the same category as balance's but some standards must be maintained at the end of the day.

[Xerof]

must admit, I was VERY surprised to find 'denis' was linked to noodles too. I picked 'denis' to be one of the balance/franco/?/?/? stable of runners

[percy]

Temporary ban I believe, back in October :-)

Will be a month of ignorance then!!

[couta1]

Will be a month of ignorance then!!
As the saying goes Ignorance is Bliss.

[Joshuatree]

lol ,one line to insult everyone; withdrawal symptoms hey., what a tanty. Noodles knows he's appreciated here but he has violated the rules for what ever reason. You have noodles email ,please channel his research to the threads; share a little of your own good research; step up folks, everyone's a winner:t_up:

[percy]

As the saying goes Ignorance is Bliss.

Each to their own.!! lol.

[skid]

As the saying goes Ignorance is Bliss.

you really set yourself up for that one coutts:):)

[skid]

Meanwhile does anyone else get the feeling this Chinese holiday(sharemarket closed) is just the intermission --I think alot are sweating about next week

[couta1]

you really set yourself up for that one coutts:):) One must always maintain a sense of humour Skid and never lose the ability to laugh at ones self from time to time:cool:

[RTM]

Thanks for taking the trouble to post the link KW. I'll read it a couple more times and then it will hopefully sink in.
I have trouble getting my head around everything financial and how it all interlinks and interacts. I guess I'm not alone there. And then on top of that, need to apply to my personal situation. Fun isn't it.

In the mean time I will complete repair of ceiling where I have removed a recessed light. That I can at least fully understand.




http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022615/why-didnt-quantitative-easing-lead-hyperinflation.asp

Also the fact that commodity prices have fallen over the last few years, which is also deflationary.

[Nasi Goreng]

Meanwhile does anyone else get the feeling this Chinese holiday(sharemarket closed) is just the intermission --I think alot are sweating about next week

I think it will be volatile and there could be a small rally or a big sell off. Maybe cool heads will prevail if US/EU don't implode.

I bought Alibaba this week, I'm not trying to pick the bottom but at these levels, it looks good for a 5 year + time horizon.

NZ market is holding up really well, the speculative stocks have been falling but most have barely moved. I think so far so good but if fear strikes, there is quite a long way to go for some with high multiples.

[Beagle]

More doom and gloooooom for ya all. This from London.

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976503326/is-a-global-recession-approaching.html

Thanks...I think. That makes truly depressing reading.

[xafalcon]

Thanks...I think. That makes truly depressing reading.

Bad news sells

Problems is, general public only gets to hear the reporters perspective/interpretation which is often biased.

Just like the never ending China doom & gloom stories. eg. Even if China growth falls from 7.4% last year to 6.9% this year, their absolute growth is still larger. Ever heard that being reported?

[Beagle]

Bad news sells

Problems is, general public only gets to hear the reporters perspective/interpretation which is often biased.

Just like the never ending China doom & gloom stories. eg. Even if China growth falls from 7.4% last year to 6.9% this year, their absolute growth is still larger. Ever heard that being reported?

You get the prize for glass half full perspective this week but for mine the fact remains if you look at the collapse of a wide range of commodities its pretty clear that demand from China has very dramatically reduced which is in line with most economists thinking that the true state of the economy is far worse than the official version the Chinese authorities would have us believe. The 25% collapse in emerging markets this year also indicates we're in a genuine bear market.

[BlackPeter]

if you've got a spare 30+ minutes: great webinar presented by betashares: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzabGpV8shU&feature=youtu.be

The first half hour is in my view an excellent analysis of the status of (mainly) the US and Australian economy (interest rates / unemployment / housing market / productive investments), the second part (another 20 minutes) is more a sales presentation and only interesting, if you are interested in Betashares new ETF's. At the end are questions asked (and answered) related to both presentations. Again - some interesting stuff in there (i.e. related to Chinese market).

What I took out of the seminar is that the situation in Australia is likely to get worse before it is getting better, while the US market might well hold. But sure - it is all just likelihoods - no guarantees given.

The overall economic picture painted in the first presentation is certainly less gloomy than in some of the other publications posted here. Might be worthwhile to view just to get a bit of a reality check before people start to dump everything ...

[Daytr]

I think what we are seeing is a massive transition that will actually benefit consumers and in the long run strengthen economies globally as there will be a broader wealth distribution that will be driven by the general populace, rather than multi-nationals and Wall St.
Oil is highlighting this change. China's massive infrastructure boom & growth created an unprecedented commodities boom & their economy nursed global growth from 2008 - 2014. Their economy is changing as rapidly as it grew, to a far more services based economy. Due to the cyclical nature of commodities where it takes around 5-10 years to bring on supply, the massive growth in supply which was overstated anyway and always had a major risk of being mistimed. China isn't buying that much less, but it is less, however supply in a lot of commodities has surged. Debt laden or capital intensive producers are now struggling. High costs producers will fall by the wayside and that will see prices in some commodities rebound at some point, but we probably aren't there yet as very few have actually fallen over, so production isn't reducing. In fact quite the opposite in some cases where in an effort to reduce operating costs production is being increased, which some refer to the race to the bottom.
The beneficiary of all this will be the consumer with cheaper goods & services. More money in Mum & Dads pockets to spend at the mall or on entertainment and even upgrades to cars & housing. The US is already showing signs of this in their last GDP report.
In the short term we are going to see some pain & some industries in particular will suffer numerous failures particularly in energy production.
However those who have retained an exposure top their local ccy are probably doing ok. Many miners in Australia for instance have USD debt which is hurting them badly. If they had AUD denominated debt then they would be doing okish.
Personally I think the biggest area that will benefit will be retail as consumers have more to spend, but there will be other industries where Ma & Pa spend their new found wealth.

[Baa_Baa]

Australia up, NZ and rest of Asia down (even without the China effect). Bit odd. US futures pointing down too.

yes, Nikkei and Hang Seng down, DOW futures down .. will be interesting to see how the week closes on US bourses without the China mainland influence. Makes it all the more intriguing how Shanghai will re-open when it does ... up, down ... whatever it is could be like a re-rate. The glorious uncertainty of it all ...

[elZorro]

I haven't held any shares for a year or more. I have kept an eye on one big share overseas (multiple exchange listings), this firm has fingers in pies all around the world, mainly in the industrial sector. They manufacture stuff. This firm has never lost money, not even in the GFC. They cut staff then, drastically reduced stock holdings, moved to lean manufacturing, open book costing etc, moved manufacturing to low wage economies, and they've been pruning business divisions in the last year. During the last few years they've dropped from over 30,000 staff worldwide, to 14,000 staff. They are now at an MCAP of nearly $4Bill, annual turnover about the same, with an EBITDA of about $800mill, impressive.

But their shareprice has dropped 43% from a recent peak in the last year, it's now dropping even more rapidly. They were a canary for the GFC, where their shareprice dropped to a very low price and quickly rebounded by about 6x after the GFC, over 2 years.

I think this is just one example of very good firms that are seeing negative sentiment towards their quality shares. It means that money is coming off the table worldwide, and it's been doing that steadily for over a year, unless I'm mistaken.

Interested to hear what other people are seeing overseas.

[JBmurc]

I'm bias but I really like the look of many of these micro-Jnr cap Gold producers in Aussie...

some factors I think could see many in the Gold ASX sector do well

-Many Trade at 10-30% of the market values they once did round the same AUD Gold price 4-5yrs ago
-Like many I see more Deflation and prolong lower energy costs ...this equals lower input costs (mining costs)
-Continue collapse of other miners bringing labour rates down and skilled workforce employment advantages .
-Lower AUD/USD increasing margins..ANZ predict $2,000oz USD gold by 2020(along with many other well known analysts)
-Sentiment change ,the sector for sometime has been well out of favour ...continue good profit numbers looks to be changing this..
-inverse advantages from major depression ...save haven in the investment landscape (this was shown in the 30's depression period etc
-Capital looking for a home ... Cashed up miners looking to diverse out of there woeful resources > MGX comes to mind..
-the Bear market in the sector has cut many a poorly run , low grade miner leaving the better run survivors ..

.......my 2c

[Daytr]

US NFP tonight right. Typically a very volatile session & probably especially so with the Fed maybe/maybe not considering raising rates later this month for the first time in 10 years! Market has a Sep hike rates at only a 25% chance, a good number could see a massive swing.
I'm closing out most of my positions.

Play safe everyone! ;-)

[skid]

Thanks for taking the trouble to post the link KW. I'll read it a couple more times and then it will hopefully sink in.
I have trouble getting my head around everything financial and how it all interlinks and interacts. I guess I'm not alone there. And then on top of that, need to apply to my personal situation. Fun isn't it.

In the mean time I will complete repair of ceiling where I have removed a recessed light. That I can at least fully understand.

Did you happen to remove it with your fist?:) A new meaning to ''Black Monday'':)

[gv1]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;590022]I'm bias but I really like the look of many of these micro-Jnr cap Gold producers in Aussie...

Yes JBmurc, these are the sectors to invest or watch for....
One big country(might have impact) bought heavily which is playing with its currency.

[Joshuatree]

SILVER LINING?
A snippet from pie funds. They cite 6 reasons why things are overdone, exaggerated etc and see an op to start buying.

"The Investment team took advantage of the worst month on the ASX since Oct 08 and deployed some of our cash war chest.
Though we still have plenty of dry powderremaining. A good friend of mine, who
I rate as an excellent trader, taught memany years ago “You’ve got to buy on thered Mike”. And that is exactly what we didthis month, the day the ASX dipped below5,000 (1000 points off the recent high)we put our head above the parapet in ameaningful way for the first time in years. "

[skid]

You get the prize for glass half full perspective this week but for mine the fact remains if you look at the collapse of a wide range of commodities its pretty clear that demand from China has very dramatically reduced which is in line with most economists thinking that the true state of the economy is far worse than the official version the Chinese authorities would have us believe. The 25% collapse in emerging markets this year also indicates we're in a genuine bear market.

Been all out for 4 months now--I think the bear has finally come out of hibernation--

https://www.facebook.com/WestCoastNativeNews/photos/a.449560758444607.104072.391394594261224/795461803854499/

[ratkin]

Only question is , long slow bear or short sharp shock. I do fear for the aussie market, they were the market darlings based on their exposure to China, the resources have already capitulated, will they take the rest of the market with them?

[couta1]

Been all out for 4 months now--I think the bear has finally come out of hibernation--

https://www.facebook.com/WestCoastNativeNews/photos/a.449560758444607.104072.391394594261224/795461803854499/
Skid reading your posts over the years I'm surprised you were ever in, you seem to be at the complete opposite end of the spectrum to myself. I have always liked extremes but not at the conservative end of the spectrum.

[Joshuatree]

Only question is , long slow bear or short sharp shock. I do fear for the aussie market, they were the market darlings based on their exposure to China, the resources have already capitulated, will they take the rest of the market with them?

I have an aussie friend whose portfolio has reached a new high in value.There are always opps out there no matter what the mkts do ;i wouldn't throw a bearskin over the whole mkt and this is what PIE is doing,buying selectively while mkts are red; getting out of sync with the herd.

[Beagle]

Been all out for 4 months now--I think the bear has finally come out of hibernation--

https://www.facebook.com/WestCoastNativeNews/photos/a.449560758444607.104072.391394594261224/795461803854499/

LOL mate....the ol a picture says a thousand words eh. I think its pretty clear this bear market has serious claws and your picture says it perfectly.
Watch out for the teeth too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YexQcXnVSzg

[Daytr]

Ok to weakfish jobs number in the US, however unemployment dropped from 5.3% to 5.1%.
this suggests to me participation in the labour market is still falling.
PE on the DOW are now around 14, so quite a bit lower than they were, however I question that 14 is good value, unlike what the spruikers on Wall St are saying. Big question, does the FED raise this month?

[NZSilver]

Only question is , long slow bear or short sharp shock. I do fear for the aussie market, they were the market darlings based on their exposure to China, the resources have already capitulated, will they take the rest of the market with them?

Yep that's a hard one to know, but at the moment I prefer to hold majority cash - I have no idea if there is any way of predicting sharp drop or slow smolder (or recovery)... US markets down another 1.5% overnight, its seems the big worry at the moment causing the sell offs if data coming out which will support interest rate rises in the US this month. Last night it was that there were a bunch of jobs created and un-employment dropped to 5.1% (lowest since 2008 I think). Seems like interest rate rises may be the final straw on the camels already slightly broken back. However with the US economy recovering - surely some business will do better than they are now (with or without china's demand).

Not that business doing well relates to there stock price necessarily. - i guess this is the issue.

[Beagle]

CASH is KING !!!!!!
We need a separate thread on how to avoid the temptation to spend it on "STUFF". Is there some way to ban yourself from Trade Me's website LOL

[Hoop]

I love how these professional fund managers think that they should start buying after only a few days of falls, like its all over already. Of course - its clearly designed to reassure the muppets so that they dont get fancy ideas like wanting to pull their money out of the funds. A run on funds .... now where have I seen that before???
They probably revisited Shillers P/E history* and said "sh!t"!!!..

*In the last 115 years cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear occur before CAPE reaches 25........4 exemptions 1929 (31) 1999-2000 (43) 2007 (27) and now 2015 (26)....

[mfd]

They probably revisited Shillers P/E history* and said "sh!t"!!!..

*In the last 115 years cyclic reversals from Bull to Bear occur before CAPE reaches 25........4 exemptions 1929 (31) 1999-2000 (43) 2007 (27) and now 2015 (26)....

They'd be missing out on a lot of gains if the market shrugs this off and heads up to the 30s or 40s again...

[skid]

Skid reading your posts over the years I'm surprised you were ever in, you seem to be at the complete opposite end of the spectrum to myself. I have always liked extremes but not at the conservative end of the spectrum.

at one stage I was in quite alot (for me)--almost $100000--that was before the last GFC---I managed to come out about even on that one (mostly because of 1 lucky sale of NZO-which cancelled out the losses after(but I did sell which is why I came out ok)
I got back in after,but more conservatively and learned some valuable lessons on when to cut my losses if things are heading that way--so I set a strategy and listened to those who in my opinion are very knowledgeable and know more than me.
I,like you was once keen on PEB,but having missed the boat on the initial rise got in @$1 just befor the announcement that was disappointing--sold out @.89 $1100 loss--(I had just read the DIL thread from start to finish and learned alot from that--I took the loss ''the real loss'' as you would say.
when it dropped to .65 I decided it was cheap enough to give management another go-but I set a limit-iI guess others also though it was oversold as it rose in price-When it eventually started to reverse and dropped, I sold @.86--(I made up the loss and an extra grand)--When deciding whether to re enter,a wise investor brought NAN to my attention--with much better fundamentals I bought in and did quite well(for a while it went crazy going up--but the momentum changed and rather than ride it down I sold)

These companies are not my favorite sports team or my religion--I dont stick with them no matter what---''buy and hold ''is not a mantra for me.---Im not a trader ,but I will preserve capital if I can(thats how I funded the trip Im on for the last 2.5 months)--that includes some contributions to some who were born into far more unfortunate circumstances than you and I.--im not after riches.
(from my observations in 3rd world countries--when everyone is poor -they seem pretty happy--but when a few become rich,thats when the trouble starts--but that I suppose is a debate for another thread)

Getting back to the sharemarket ,i believe this has been brewing for quite some time(with all the financial intervention) That kind of meddling cannot IMO solve the real problems..they can put them off..but not forever---So having lived through the GFC and believing that the inherent problems were not solved---here I am--(Wish you were here because you seem like the sort of chap that could do much better things with the money than throw it away on the Share market)
Hope that clarifies things a bit--Its not about raising myself above others or rubbing salt in wounds--Its about thinking things through and knowing when to listen.

[JBmurc]

[QUOTE=JBmurc;590022]I'm bias but I really like the look of many of these micro-Jnr cap Gold producers in Aussie...

Yes JBmurc, these are the sectors to invest or watch for....
One big country(might have impact) bought heavily which is playing with its currency.

Yes I see AUD/USD now 69c ...putting AUD gold $1625 ....some analyst see AUD falling into the 50c's ....be the perfect storm if USD Gold can get some attention ...with some miners having sub 1k ASIC well see at present 30-70mill Mktcap companies having free cashflows upto 100mill p.a with 2k AUD gold

Also lower AUD should help attract international investment into profitable ASX companies

[gv1]

Hi Jbmurc, how about SUM(sumatra gold) based in indonesia, should start producing end of this yr. price dropped quite a lot?

[Nasi Goreng]

Hi KW

You seem very confident with your post and are ready to take on the world.

Some of your statements imply that it is all quite easy and that this is something you have recently discovered so I wonder if this has delivered great returns yet or do you expect to get great returns with your strategy.

I'm a relatively new investor, I have about 10 years experience so have only really seen one cycle. What I have found though is that it is not easy to pick tops and bottoms and most people avoid this.

Some people would have cashed up last October only to see another upward leg. As bearish as the world looks today, we could be in for a big relief rally that takes out all the shorts and hits new highs. In a situation like this, the buy and hold guys would be much better off than those who have cashed up and jumped into bear ETF's

You suggest it's probably easier to make money on the way down as well as on the way up. Probably? Does this mean you have had success at this through a few cycles it is it that you currently have a few short positions that are doing ok?

It can be done but it isn't easy, I would suggest that most investors, even the educated get this wrong and end up worse off than those buy and hold guys. Shorting is very risky, particularly on individual stocks and if you get it wrong, you will lose money and miss out on half of the new uptrend. I would say never ever short a stock that could be subject to a possible takeover which rules out most companies.

I've read many books which have all given me insight and confidence but they always make things look a lot easier than they actually are. I have studied TA and have used it to buy in up trends and on dips etc which has helped me to make a lot of good entries which I think is really important as once you buy, you're in.

The most obvious thing to me is that while I can't pick a top or a bottom, I can easily see when things have been going well and when they are not. So for me, it's not about always beating the market but more about knowing when to be all in and when to have some cash on the side lines.

[Daytr]

Nasi Goreng , what's your thoughts generally on the equity markets? Correction? More downside to come? Or great buying opportunity?

[BeeBop]

I remain a general buy and hold. Although, I qualify this by saying that I only hold until my personally calculated fair value has been achieved. Most of my buys are in a bear market and sells are in a bull market. My largest ever sell off was in November 2013 for most of my shares. The reasons I sold were: (1) most had reached their fair value, (2) I wanted to reduce our debt on investment properties, (3) the portfolio was getting a bit big and complicated for my valuing abilities and it felt good to pay a mortgage off and then go shopping for another house (buy and hold properties).

Currently, I am very gradually building up our NZX and LSE portfolios again as I have learnt more. Mostly I have learned (recently) that I am a shocker for trying to trade and make a rapid GBP200 here or there - it does not work for me in any way shape or form!

Had a fantastic couple of days in Queenstown looking at property and feel quite comfortable with my approach of working over both shares and property....

[skid]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]7584[/ATTACH

Crisis?...What Crisis?:)

Sorry to interrupt a valuable debate ,but I just had to throw this in as an example of preserving capital :):)