Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/brutal-selloff-in-argentina-turkey-engulfs-emerging-market-peers?srnd=premium-asia

60% interest rates in argentina .... tempting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/trump-said-to-back-200-billion-china-tariffs-early-as-next-week?srnd=premium-asia

buffett still buying

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/warren-buffett-says-he-bought-just-a-little-more-apple-recently.html

One picture says more than 1000 words:

9887

60% might not be enough to pay for the annual devaluation ...

[percy]

Don't be tempted. I've just been to a bank over here (Argentina)and they've all run out of USD. They were advertising 1 months fixed deposit with 35% interest pa. Supermarkets closing down for a few days as they don' t know what to sell their goods for in order to have enough cash to restock at unknown prices. Many over here have mortgages in USD or tied to USD and inflation. One of my colleagues just told me his mortgage has gone up 25% in the last 2 days. Terrible situation and people are in great panic.

In the 1970s I owned toy shops.Inflation was running at approx 20%.After working extremely long hours,at the end of the financial year my profit did not cover the cost to restock.Yet I was paying tax on a supposed profit.
I can feel for the Argentines who face a lot harder challenges than I did.

[Aaron]

Does this make Argentina a roaring success. At these rates of inflation most debt should be cleared or be very manageable within a few years although interest payments might get a bit onerous. Other world central banks will be jealous as they are trying to ramp up inflation to no avail.

I saw a 60% return on something over in Argentina in the paper didn't go past the headline though. Maybe after they float the peso I should be working out how to invest as yields around here are a bit lower.

[BlackPeter]

Does this make Argentina a roaring success. At these rates of inflation most debt should be cleared or be very manageable within a few years although interest payments might get a bit onerous. Other world central banks will be jealous as they are trying to ramp up inflation to no avail.

I saw a 60% return on something over in Argentina in the paper didn't go past the headline though. Maybe after they float the peso I should be working out how to invest as yields around here are a bit lower.

Living through a hyperinflation is no fun for the people who experience it - and given that most creditors are not stupid either you can safely assume that most loans in Argentina are these days issued in foreign currency (like USD). Just imagine you have to pay a credit back where the principle (in your local currency) doubles (or worse) every year ...

However - for the people tempted by 60% interest rates ... Just take a step back and calculate how much money in NZD or USD) you are losing if the peso only loses 50% of its value over the same time ... you would need to get at least 100% interest rate to just keep your principle.

BTW - Peso lost over the last year 53% of its value against the USD, but I am - as always - an optimist ;):

[iceman]

To put it into perspective, when I started operating in Argentina 11 years ago, 1 USD bought me 2.9 pesos. Today it buys me 33 pesos. A taxi from airport into the city cost 85 pesos back then, now 1,000. No hyper inflation is no good for anyone that has to live through it.

[Patient Panda]

Living through a hyperinflation is no fun for the people who experience it - and given that most creditors are not stupid either you can safely assume that most loans in Argentina are these days issued in foreign currency (like USD). Just imagine you have to pay a credit back where the principle (in your local currency) doubles (or worse) every year ...

However - for the people tempted by 60% interest rates ... Just take a step back and calculate how much money in NZD or USD) you are losing if the peso only loses 50% of its value over the same time ... you would need to get at least 100% interest rate to just keep your principle.

BTW - Peso lost over the last year 53% of its value against the USD, but I am - as always - an optimist ;):


I can’t remember the exact details but theres some inflation exchange parity theory that says the exchange rate between two countries should change by the inflation differential between the two (holding all else constant).

so you should be no better off dealing in Pesos and in fact should be much worse off with the increased costs and instability hyigh inflation causes.

argentina and venezuela the nightmare of every reserve banker

[bull....]

1 trillion in buy backs , earnings up 20% , pe ratio falling all the time , trade deals happening .... still the most hated bull market in history

althought i see the 500 is at the top of the channel again, see what happens

fell back into the channel over the week from overbrought levels , looks healthy too me.
ASX having its normal sept weakness.
NZX sold off from overbrought levels.



biggest news off the night was musk smoking pot and drinking whiskey during a interview , hahhaa funniest thing ive seen a CEO so relaxed and chilling.... cool

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/tesla-sinks-8percent-after-bizarre-musk-podcast-appearance-cao-exit.html

[winner69]

Came across this

David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie)
8/09/18, 6:29 AM
Signs of an unhealthy market: FAANGM stocks up 30% YTD, the S&P 494 up 3%. Over half the 2018 gains came from six stocks. Historians know what that means.


To me more of a reflection of how the world works these days.

[Lewylewylewy]

Trump is talking about targetting Japan for "serious talks" next. Is he going to go through each asian country and demolish trade? The US is something like 40-50% of world trade. Will he be the cause of the next recession or depression? Will he be reigned in or maybe he can't do enough damage fast enough? Maybe it'll all just be fine? I'd love to hear what people think.

Personally, i think we'll be fine for a while, but i have concerns for the coming years. All a bit random, really.

[BlackPeter]

Trump is talking about targetting Japan for "serious talks" next. Is he going to go through each asian country and demolish trade? The US is something like 40-50% of world trade. Will he be the cause of the next recession or depression? Will he be reigned in or maybe he can't do enough damage fast enough? Maybe it'll all just be fine? I'd love to hear what people think.

Personally, i think we'll be fine for a while, but i have concerns for the coming years. All a bit random, really.

The US still have the biggest GDP in the world (from memory roughly 25% of world GDP if measured in US dollars) - but I don't think they are contributing 40 to 50% to the world trade - no matter how you are measuring that.

Both China as well as the EU have a similar sized GDP than the US, and both China as well as Europe are trading much more internationally than the US (where international trade is only something like 10% of the total inland GPD).

However that might be - the US are a very important trade partner and I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial.

The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever. The public debt clock is now at 21.5 trillion USD - that's nearly USD 71k for each head in the US. On the other hand - the gross annual per capita income in the US is only USD 15.5k. this means every US citizen would need to work 4 and a half years without eating, drinking or spending any money to just repay their public debt.

The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?

Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world. While each one alone is probably not a spark big enough to cause the explosion ... the fireworks he is generating well might.

So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years. Don't think it will take much longer.

Take care out there ... and enjoy the fireworks

[winner69]

The US still have the biggest GDP in the world (from memory roughly 25% of world GDP if measured in US dollars) - but I don't think they are contributing 40 to 50% to the world trade - no matter how you are measuring that.

Both China as well as the EU have a similar sized GDP than the US, and both China as well as Europe are trading much more internationally than the US (where international trade is only something like 10% of the total inland GPD).

However that might be - the US are a very important trade partner and I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial.

The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever. The public debt clock is now at 21.5 trillion USD - that's nearly USD 71k for each head in the US. On the other hand - the gross annual per capita income in the US is only USD 15.5k. this means every US citizen would need to work 4 and a half years without eating, drinking or spending any money to just repay their public debt.

The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?

Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world. While each one alone is probably not a spark big enough to cause the explosion ... the fireworks he is generating well might.

So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years. Don't think it will take much longer.

Take care out there ... and enjoy the fireworks

That’s a cheery start to the week ....thanks

Markets probably go up this week.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;728461]

..."I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial...

...The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever...

...The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?...

...Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world...

...So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years...

... Take care out there ... "


I have read where a substantial outcome of the US tax cuts is more travel spending by business and individuals and this benefits the hotel business, and people with substantial interests in hotels and hotel property and golf courses and ...

Is that conclusion appropriate? ...

[BlackPeter]

[QUOTE=BlackPeter;728461]

..."I have no doubt that some of Trump's actions will be the cause for the next economical crisis. I guess he is just like a child playing with matches around an open petrol tank ... hard to say how many matches the child needs to bring the fuel tank to explosion - but the bang will be substantial...

...The biggest risk factor I see is him driving the US into the worst debt crisis ever...

...The US will never be able to repay the debt accumulated under Trump - and guess what will happen when people realize?...

...Trumps trade wars are obviously bad for the US as well as for the rest of the world...

...So yes, we better prepare for interesting times ... but hard to say whether the big bang will be in a month, a year or in a couple of years...

... Take care out there ... "


I have read where a substantial outcome of the US tax cuts is more travel spending by business and individuals and this benefits the hotel business, and people with substantial interests in hotels and hotel property and golf courses and ...

Is that conclusion appropriate? ...

Absolutely. It is like with these matches the child at the petrol station is playing with. They might as well provide light and warmth :p;

No worries - sleep tight!

[moka]

There won’t be just one cause of the recession e.g. Trump. Everyone is looking for a safe place to put their money because the risk of a crash is high – too much debt with not enough asset backing. Will I get my money back? A credit crisis is a liquidity crisis. Think of liquidity like petrol. If there is no petrol you can’t run your car. If there is no liquidity capitalism can’t function. Liquidity is a gauge of how much money is flowing through the system. Here is a warning sign with funds restricting investors withdrawing funds.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-04/turkey-fallout-reaches-korea-as-record-money-market-funds-pulled
“Some local asset management firms including DB Asset Management Co., Alpha Asset Management and Heungkuk Asset Management restricted investors from withdrawing their invested funds from some MMFs from last week, citing the high volume of withdrawals”

In New Zealand some finance companies funds were frozen in 2006 and 2007 before the 2008 crash. Bridgecorp was in July 2007.
https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list
(https://www.interest.co.nz/saving/deep-freeze-list)
When liquidity dries up such as it did in 2008 with AIG and Lehman Brothers the economy slows down. AIG couldn’t sell its assets for anything approaching their true value because liquidity dried up.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/what-went-wrong-at-aig
“AIG is a mystery to a lot of people and it’s very complicated,” McDonald says. “There were multiple moving parts.”
The company’s credit default swaps are generally cited as playing a major role in the collapse, losing AIG $30 billion.”

[moka]

Trump is talking about targetting Japan for "serious talks" next. Is he going to go through each asian country and demolish trade? The US is something like 40-50% of world trade. Will he be the cause of the next recession or depression? Will he be reigned in or maybe he can't do enough damage fast enough? Maybe it'll all just be fine? I'd love to hear what people think.

Personally, i think we'll be fine for a while, but i have concerns for the coming years. All a bit random, really.

While it would be nice if Trump’s reign was reined in it won’t happen. He would be quickly removed if he was doing something Republicans and Big Money didn’t want to happen. Trump will be the scapegoat. While I don’t like Trump I think Mike Pence is worse. The beauty with Trump (yes beauty and Trump in the same sentence) is that you can clearly see how crazy he is. With Mike Pence it’s all confidence and “trust me I know what I am doing.”

[BlackPeter]

While it would be nice if Trump’s reign was reined in it won’t happen. He would be quickly removed if he was doing something Republicans and Big Money didn’t want to happen. Trump will be the scapegoat. While I don’t like Trump I think Mike Pence is worse. The beauty with Trump (yes beauty and Trump in the same sentence) is that you can clearly see how crazy he is. With Mike Pence it’s all confidence and “trust me I know what I am doing.”

Not sure Trump has enough brain cells to fathom that he is dependent on big money. I think you expect too much from somebody with the mental age of a 5 th-former. He loves to be praised and admired - no matter by whom and he is doing everything to keep getting this kick. And sure - big money is controlling his brainless supporters through their very own media (not just Fox), which is the reason he started with a very right wing rich friendly agenda.

And sure - big money certainly loved the permanent tax cuts for the rich as well as the health cuts for the poor. But now that Trump is waging international trade wars which impact on business - this is not that good for big money. Big money is smart enough to know that bullying and blackmail does not work long term in successful business relationships. Trump doesn't know that.

But you might be right in this point - it well maybe the beginning of the end of his reign that he started to wage wars against the Koch brothers as well. But this is a tale for some other thread ;);

[Bobdn]

Last post, I'll move to another thread

[Chanchay]

Tax Working Group

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/106946315/cgt-in-doubt-as-bid-to-outsource-political-decision-hits-snags

Should I be worried about this? I'm no high roller or baller, I'm just a person of modest means who tops up my savings with some dividends. The people I know on the left (two people), however, view anyone who owns shares as suspicious and probably linked to the Panama Papers.

Could Black Monday for us be about events that happen here rather than abroad?

https://i.imgur.com/zOWspvR.png

Hi Bob. It seems that any change would not effect share purchases retrospectively. So if it does go ahead it will apply only to shares purchased in the future.

Personally I think it is a shame it will not go ahead. I would love to own a house and have a family at some point.

[Bobdn]

Hi Bob. It seems that any change would not effect share purchases retrospectively. So if it does go ahead it will apply only to shares purchased in the future.

Personally I think it is a shame it will not go ahead. I would love to own a house and have a family at some point.

Was going to cut and paste my post in another thread.

Thanks Chanchay, I remember reading that the Australian labour party was looking at doing something with imputation credits. I wonder if any changes are being considered here. Anyway, a question for the Elections thread and capital gains discussion perhaps.

I'll let people get back to the Koch brothers and Trump :)

[bull....]

correction might be over

[BlackPeter]

correction might be over

what correction?

[peat]

what correction?

29/8 - 10/9

[bull....]

26000 on the dow key level to watch , think i mentioned on here amd many mths back , can you believe it $32 now

[bull....]

26000 worked out well , what made it more special was the bearish bar yesterday failed to follow thru today so we might be in the early stages of a short squeeze now target 26600 i reckon if it pans out.

fedelity offering zero fee etf now .... gee nz expensive lol

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/fidelity-one-ups-vanguard-first-company-to-offer-no-fee-index-fund.html

[bull....]

trump smacks another 200billion tarriffs

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-17/trump-ratchets-up-tariff-pressure-on-china-with-200-billion-hit?srnd=premium-asia

[Lewylewylewy]

Argh ikr. Im just waiting with about 60% cash for things to turn to poo so i can dive in... hmmm that choice of words was bad in that analogy.

The thought of the opportunity cost is really bothering me, but i just don't want to risk too much trying to time when it hits the fan (more poo analogy, sorry).

It's wrong but I'm craving Trump to hurry up and #^%@ it all up so we can get it over with, or better yet, get impeached and removed... because you know the first person that gets in after that mess will gleefully revolve everything he's been doing.

My gut tells me that things will keep ticking along for another round of his presidency and I'm probably going to end up missing out on the gains I need to achieve my financial goals. I also suspect that Jacinda will get another go around as well, which brings more erratic, poorly thought out policy.

[tipsy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIELN8C-7bQ

worth a watch exact same is happening here in NZ and around the world

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smPR0s2W-Ck

Aussie down 11 months in a row now, Sydney down 5.6% from a year ago.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks tipsy, a good (scary) watch. 40% plus predicted prop price drops in Aus.
$1.7 trillion tied up in house mortgages a debt bomb ,more mortgage distress, foreclosures up 600% in some areas.
One million home owners suffering serious mortgage distress
Half of all home owners trying to refinance are being knocked back.
Interest rates rising for people with no wriggle room
Interest only loans being switched by banks to interest and principle
Banks trying to keep foreclosure sales secret.

[bull....]

the market likes tarriffs

still on target

[Lewylewylewy]

The market is fine with it, but the economy might not be. Im waiting to see how that pans out, might take a year to see the results

[winner69]

The HINDENBURG OMENS are going to get us .......market collapse coming

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/09/18/a-historic-divergence-in-stock-market-breadth/


By stock heaps more new lows than new highs ....bad

[BlackPeter]

The HINDENBURG OMENS are going to get us .......market collapse coming

https://thefelderreport.com/2018/09/18/a-historic-divergence-in-stock-market-breadth/


By stock heaps more new lows than new highs ....bad

Amazing how much fortune telling has evolved since they used to throw bones or read the future out of the guts of a dead crow: reading the cards, reading tea leaves and now - interpreting omens called after a once capable but ultimately not that successful German general and statesman.

But yes, no matter which medium one uses - I don't think it is hard to see that the markets are currently in the upper quartile. Only question is - how long will it take until we all feel bad enough from listening to the fortune tellers so that the majority of us starts selling?

[Joshuatree]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smPR0s2W-Ck

Aussie down 11 months in a row now, Sydney down 5.6% from a year ago.



A snippet from Craigs article"The Debt Elephant In The Room"

"However, when you consider household debt the picture gets a lot uglier. As a proportion of GDP, our mortgage and consumer debt adds up to more than 90 per cent, while Australia is even worse at 121 per cent.
Not only does that put us ahead of the US and UK, but our households are more indebted than those in Spain, Greece and Italy."

[bull....]

good night for the dow at the moment playing catch up.

but the best place to be has been marijuana stocks particulary canadian ones, wicked im feeling a bit high watching them at the moment lol cron is mine but tilray gets the most attention.

major drinks companies starting to sniff around now particurly coca cola getting in the businesss is big news , those weed infused drinks will go down a treat for the ones who dont want to suck wallops of smoke down our throats haha.

[peat]

im feeling a bit high watching them at the moment lol cron is mine but tilray gets the most attention.


I saw Tilray up heaps on Bloomberg news but didnt know it was in that business.

[bull....]

I saw Tilray up heaps on Bloomberg news but didnt know it was in that business.

yep cannabis is huge potential disrupter , not only are big beverage companies getting in with weed infused drinks but also big pharma will move soon as a hedge on traditional medicines also big tobacco will too with weed infused cigerettes , food companies with weed infused buscuits and cakes .... massive disruption coming and canada is leading the way.

shame about new zealand being so slow again , just look at hemp we lost a big opportunity there and looks like we are going to do the same with marijuana. funny when you consider nz is a leader in some social things but not business opp's.

[bull....]

tilray now up 70% in 1 day words beyond believe

[bull....]

suspended again f..k volitilty is wicked mon

[jonu]

yep cannabis is huge potential disrupter , not only are big beverage companies getting in with weed infused drinks but also big pharma will move soon as a hedge on traditional medicines also big tobacco will too with weed infused cigerettes , food companies with weed infused buscuits and cakes .... massive disruption coming and canada is leading the way.

shame about new zealand being so slow again , just look at hemp we lost a big opportunity there and looks like we are going to do the same with marijuana. funny when you consider nz is a leader in some social things but not business opp's.

If this is where the marijuana trade is headed I'm pleased NZ is not charging ahead. Look at all the unintended consequences.

[BlackPeter]

I guess depending on your individual believes might either "Black Monday", "Blue Monday" or "Golden Monday" be a suitable thread name for a discussion about dope companies. Personally though I would think that it would be more appropriate to create a separate thread for this. Hard to find the dope under all the doomsday news - and not everybody looking for bad economical news might be interested in this particular discussion.

[bull....]

I guess depending on your individual believes might either "Black Monday", "Blue Monday" or "Golden Monday" be a suitable thread name for a discussion about dope companies. Personally though I would think that it would be more appropriate to create a separate thread for this. Hard to find the dope under all the doomsday news - and not everybody looking for bad economical news might be interested in this particular discussion.

chill to weed bro its the future or is the europia of weed stock is highly relevant to pointers of a black monday enthusiam is it not or is it just these big disruptors offer so much money looking ahead that explains the phenomenal gains? who knows for sure eh

[Joshuatree]

there has been a thread for a while"Medicinal Marijuana" mainly aus stocks.

[bull....]

treasury yields broke above 3% suggests a move to 3.20 i reckon , still no need to worry as stocks historically have rallied initially on rising rates.

see the option action in feye for the 28th massive someone thinks things a going up so i scooped some up see what happens a in the next week.

oh but the spread stayed the same and there the fed meeting next week might narrow more?

[Timesurfer]

Well today was a day of two halves. I much prefered the morning trading trend!
I hope Monday is a happy day.

[peat]

Well today was a day of two halves. I much prefered the morning trading trend!
I hope Monday is a happy day.

really? maybe if you were buying.

NZX50 index hit a low at 2PM and skyrocketed afterwards.
9973

[Timesurfer]

My stocks must have been popular in the morning buy .. they dropped after lunch. A slight bounce at the end of the day leaving me about break even for the day.

On the bright side it did provide a buy oportunity to grab a few more.

[moka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY)
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.

Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.

[peat]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY)
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.

Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.

Antipodean version of subprime!?

It scary the way he talks about it and he just could be right. But he could be wrong too.
I will refrain from taking long positions in the Aussie banks, but I wont be shorting them just yet either.
If you were too consider doing so then long dated put options might be the way but not for me thanks.
I tend to think the Aussie govt would assist and prevent meltdown esp in their own country

[bull....]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY)
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.

Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.

plenty of people have predicted the crash of the aus property market and has never happened....

great week for markets and the traditional spooky months of august , sept havnt been to bad , im thinking we will see a melt up into year end as funds chase there returns , that is the ones lagging will chase hard. also a positive is mid terms elections usually end up provide a good year see what happens eh.

how about that fireeye its moving the options were looking for a move by the 28th expiry so its started.

[bull....]

If this is where the marijuana trade is headed I'm pleased NZ is not charging ahead. Look at all the unintended consequences.

wonder if people said this when alcohol was introduced and look now its so socially accepted and promoted and also has plenty of unintended consequences

[Joshuatree]

Yes. 40 plus deaths from fake marijuana could have been prevented in the last year if marijuana was decriminalized .

A person i know ( who was in a terrible accident) would also be able to stop spasming all night and actually get some sleep if marijuana was available, medicinal or otherwise.

Medicinal marijuana in beverages is also helpful to many and a new crafty op for the beverage industry, so what! In some USA states maybe you can now get a high from drinking, way better for the lungs for one.

Im hearing hikurangi has had a great take-up of investors, hope it goes well for them and that they have great business plan and case.

Hemp and medicinal marijuana look to be a great combo business for NZ.

[bull....]

Yes. 40 plus deaths from fake marijuana could have been prevented in the last year if marijuana was decriminalized .

A person i know ( who was in a terrible accident) would also be able to stop spasming all night and actually get some sleep if marijuana was available, medicinal or otherwise.

Medicinal marijuana in beverages is also helpful to many and a new crafty op for the beverage industry, so what! In some USA states maybe you can now get a high from drinking, way better for the lungs for one.

Im hearing hikurangi has had a great take-up of investors, hope it goes well for them and that they have great business plan and case.

Hemp and medicinal marijuana look to be a great combo business for NZ.

i just saw your thread on asx , great thread your ahead of the crowd on this huge disruptor , big gains to come from this ethical investment

[Patient Panda]

Yes. 40 plus deaths from fake marijuana could have been prevented in the last year if marijuana was decriminalized .

A person i know ( who was in a terrible accident) would also be able to stop spasming all night and actually get some sleep if marijuana was available, medicinal or otherwise.

Medicinal marijuana in beverages is also helpful to many and a new crafty op for the beverage industry, so what! In some USA states maybe you can now get a high from drinking, way better for the lungs for one.

Im hearing hikurangi has had a great take-up of investors, hope it goes well for them and that they have great business plan and case.

Hemp and medicinal marijuana look to be a great combo business for NZ.

completely agree with you JT. The faster they decriminilise it, regulate it and tax it similarly to how alcohol and tobacco work now, the better.

Its no surprise Hikurangi has so much interest and support.

The tax take from cannibis alone could completely eliminate the need for any extra capital gains tax.

[value_investor]

By the looks of it, the American market is not too phased by a trade war. We might see a bit of rally coming till the end of the year. Is there a level beyond mass euphoria?

[winner69]

Earnings drive share prices rather than politics

Best not to read the papers or watch CNBC ...just a lot of unnecessary noise

[blackcap]

Earnings drive share prices rather than politics

Best not to read the papers or watch CNBC ...just a lot of unnecessary noise

CNBC is great. I am thinking about doing the Cramer trade booyah! That is do exactly the opposite of what Jim says. There have been studies done and it seems Jim has a negative Alpha! Oops.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/568f03c8841abaff89043b9d/t/5734f6e2c2ea51b32cf53885/1463088868550/HartleyOlson2016+Jim+Cramer+Charitable+Trust+Perfo rmance+and+Factor+Attribution.pdf

[stoploss]

CNBC is great. I am thinking about doing the Cramer trade booyah! That is do exactly the opposite of what Jim says. There have been studies done and it seems Jim has a negative Alpha! Oops.

Yea he”s as good as Larry Kudlow look who he is working for now ...,

[bull....]

a very sensible well written news story by the herald. might have read our thread here even.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12128620

[value_investor]

Earnings drive share prices rather than politics

Best not to read the papers or watch CNBC ...just a lot of unnecessary noise

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Shiller PE (10 Year S&P500 PE adjusted for inflation) now at the highest level ever since the 2000 crash.

The FANG stocks make up over 40% of the contribution of the gain in the market so a slowdown could slow down the market. I'm not in the US market but its probably the most interesting. Amazon currently trading at a PE of 151 and a forward PE of 75. I'm not betting against Amazon but they and a lot of other tech stocks will have to perform near perfectly to avoid negative share performance.

[percy]

a very sensible well written news story by the herald. might have read our thread here even.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12128620

Maybe A2 can add it to their milk,A2Pot.?
On a higher shelf.?

[Bobdn]

Oil has recovered nicely. Hopefully WTI will reach $80 USD by the end of the year. Owning companies that actually produce stuff like oil and other commodities (rather than relying on advertising revenue like Facebook), might, weirdly, be a good bet before this cycle is through.

[blackcap]

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

The Shiller PE (10 Year S&P500 PE adjusted for inflation) now at the highest level ever since the 2000 crash.

The FANG stocks make up over 40% of the contribution of the gain in the market so a slowdown could slow down the market. I'm not in the US market but its probably the most interesting. Amazon currently trading at a PE of 151 and a forward PE of 75. I'm not betting against Amazon but they and a lot of other tech stocks will have to perform near perfectly to avoid negative share performance.

In the last week I have shorted, Google, Tesla and Alphabet (GOOG). Thanks for reminding me about Amazon, that is another to add to the short list.

[traineeinvestor]

Oil has recovered nicely. Hopefully WTI will reach $80 USD by the end of the year. Owning companies that actually produce stuff like oil and other commodities (rather than relying on advertising revenue like Facebook), might, weirdly, be a good bet before this cycle is through.

Yep, oil stocks have done well recently. Side point: for the oil producers I follow Brent is the relevant benchmark rather than WTI.

On Facebook, I've been told that buying anything through one of the advertisements on Facebook results in your in-box being spammed with endless advertisements – the result is that people just won't click on the ads (let alone buy anything) which can only lead to less advertising revenue over time + Facebook users spending more time on other platforms.

[JBmurc]

Investors are now earning the smallest earnings yield on the S&P 500 relative to 2-year Treasury yields since 2007....

Interesting read
https://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/5000-years-of-empire/what-history-books-left-out-about-depression-era-co-ops-20180914

[bull....]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/trump-lauds-nafta-replacement-as-historic-trade-agreement?srnd=premium-asia

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/01/trump-new-north-american-trade-deal-is-new-dawn-for-us-auto-industry.html

good news on nafta , markets still on course

[NeverQuestion]

Investors are now earning the smallest earnings yield on the S&P 500 relative to 2-year Treasury yields since 2007....

Interesting read
https://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/5000-years-of-empire/what-history-books-left-out-about-depression-era-co-ops-20180914

So we might be a year out from a crash if history repeats? I note that the Fed are pushing up rates again and it seems like they are planning on hiking multiple times in the coming year. This is something they did prior to the 2008 Crash. So to me, that signals a warning that we are close to the end of the cycle.

[JBmurc]

So we might be a year out from a crash if history repeats? I note that the Fed are pushing up rates again and it seems like they are planning on hiking multiple times in the coming year. This is something they did prior to the 2008 Crash. So to me, that signals a warning that we are close to the end of the cycle.

Yes all histrionic factors are pointing towards crash and depression followed by major power War .....I try not to think about it to much
hope it will be different this time

[Jonboyz]

Over the last twenty years we have averaged a crash once every ten years. The next one could happen any day now. Or not. Could go either way. But certainly, we are probably due for one, unless we're not; and I'm 100% certain of that.

From the classic "Top is in" thread that has been running for years now on MMM (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2149742/#msg2149742) Main theme is that we don't know when the next crash, recession, etc will actually be. You can always find someone on any particular day saying that the 'end is nigh', one day someone will be right!

[bull....]

From the classic "Top is in" thread that has been running for years now on MMM (https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/investor-alley/top-is-in/msg2149742/#msg2149742) Main theme is that we don't know when the next crash, recession, etc will actually be. You can always find someone on any particular day saying that the 'end is nigh', one day someone will be right!

classic . hope its me hahha anyway good day on the dow again

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/us-markets-fed-remarks-and-trade-deal-in-focus.html

[moka]

Yes all histrionic factors are pointing towards crash and depression followed by major power War .....I try not to think about it to much
hope it will be different this time
That is what Ray Dalio is saying too
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/ray-dalio-bridgewater-debt-crisis-downturn-coming-about-two-years-2018-9?r=US&IR=T


Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio says the economy looks like it did in the late 1930s in many ways: interest rates hit zero in the early stage of each crisis, asset prices are near full capacity, interest rates are still low, the wealth gap has widened, populism is on the rise, and global tensions are rising.
Dalio says: “We’re in the later part of the cycle, the part of cycle in which monetary policy is tightening and there’s not much capacity to squeeze out of the economy.” He expects a downturn in roughly two years.
Dalio says the way to handle the situation so we don’t repeat the late ’30s and ’40s is to make sure that capitalism works for a majority of the people.
Dalio goes on to say it’s not just about a wealth gap but also an opportunity gap. He calls the issue a national emergency.

“And we have a political situation in terms of having more of a conflict between the rich and the poor, which is bringing out a populism. Populism around the world is the selection of strong-minded leaders who are – sort of take charge, but tend to be more nationalistic. And so, we’re in that type of position.
Blodget: And you’ve written extensively and absolutely about what happened after 1937, which is we went through a real surge of populism and nationalism, and got to World War II, and all the horrible things that happened there. What do you think happens now, given where we are?”
.

[winner69]

You guys gone 100% cash yet?

[bull....]

You guys gone 100% cash yet?

no im still running at about 0% cash + 30% levered hasnt reached my targets yet so im comfortable and the data last night was very strong and the yield curve widening too now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/treasuries-selloff-pushes-30-year-yield-to-highest-since-2014

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/us-markets-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html

[winner69]

no im still running at about 0% cash + 30% levered hasnt reached my targets yet so im comfortable and the data last night was very strong and the yield curve widening too now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-03/treasuries-selloff-pushes-30-year-yield-to-highest-since-2014

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/03/us-markets-fresh-economic-data-in-focus.html

Like you bull I’m still in the game ...but not levered lol

If I believed most of the stuff you read about the state of the market one would have been out of the market years ago (I don’t play the shorting game)

[NeverQuestion]

You guys gone 100% cash yet?

I have but only with my Kiwisaver. Mainly because I don't want to miss out on the stock discounts. I believe that the Fed signaling they want to increase interest rates regularly is a clear indication we are about to hit the end of the cycle. If History repeats they will overshoot with the interest rate hikes and hence trigger a crash. But that will be at least a years worth of Hikes I believe. I just don't want to miss it.

In saying that I still have 7K in stocks outside of KiwiSaver invested in Stocks. Being a Newby to share trading I'm using it to learn how to manage and build a portfolio.

[Aaron]

Who knows when the cycle will end but the IMF is now joining the crackpots I read on Zero hedge.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/world-economy-at-risk-of-another-financial-crash-says-imf/ar-BBNTyFI?ocid=spartanntp

[Aaron]

You guys gone 100% cash yet?

Yep about 9 years ago, just waiting for the next leg down.

[pedro.nz]

Just in the process of re-weighting our portfolio to a much more conservative stance - will wait it out and jump back in at the appropriate time but still have some short term share holdings for play time :)

[RupertBear]

Yep about 9 years ago, just waiting for the next leg down.

:lol::lol::lol:

PS I was assuming you were joking, if not then I apologise for my insensitivity :)

[blackcap]

Yep about 9 years ago, just waiting for the next leg down.

Are you for real? So in the last 9 years the market has moved up by between 100-200% depending on which market and metrics. So you need a 60% + correction to even break even. That is never going to happen. Maybe being in the market rather than timing the market is still the wise thing to do?

[Chanchay]

Are you for real? So in the last 9 years the market has moved up by between 100-200% depending on which market and metrics. So you need a 60% + correction to even break even. That is never going to happen. Maybe being in the market rather than timing the market is still the wise thing to do?

Im pretty sure that was a joke!

[Aaron]

Are you for real? So in the last 9 years the market has moved up by between 100-200% depending on which market and metrics. So you need a 60% + correction to even break even. That is never going to happen. Maybe being in the market rather than timing the market is still the wise thing to do?

Thanks for making me feel better... not.
Not entirely true I have a few shares but have been getting depressed waiting for a bigger correction. Each year prices get higher so each year I am more tempted to buy, but I have waited so long for a correction now that I have to remind myself that each year a correction gets closer, unfortunately we are in the longest or second longest expansion ever. Also I am fighting central banks which are globally using unprecedented monetary policy to levitate the markets. (I think this is a version of trickle down economics)

According to Ray Dalio I still have another couple of years to wait.

[Aaron]

Im pretty sure that was a joke!

Mostly a joke but it is the sad element of truth to it that should provide the big laughs for everyone other than me.

[blackcap]

Thanks for making me feel better... not.
Not entirely true I have a few shares but have been getting depressed waiting for a bigger correction. Each year prices get higher so each year I am more tempted to buy, but I have waited so long for a correction now that I have to remind myself that each year a correction gets closer, unfortunately we are in the longest or second longest expansion ever. Also I am fighting central banks which are globally using unprecedented monetary policy to levitate the markets. (I think this is a version of trickle down economics)

According to Ray Dalio I still have another couple of years to wait.

Cheers for getting back. Yeah its a tough one and in your situation you will need balls of steel to stay away now as the bull keeps on running. You are correct in identifying that a correction is a lot closer now so its probably best to wait. I am too putting less and less into the market and accumulating cash where I can. Sorry about your dilemma, but what was the problem 9 years ago? Surely that was just post a huge correction with the GFC?

[Aaron]

Cheers for getting back. Yeah its a tough one and in your situation you will need balls of steel to stay away now as the bull keeps on running. You are correct in identifying that a correction is a lot closer now so its probably best to wait. I am too putting less and less into the market and accumulating cash where I can. Sorry about your dilemma, but what was the problem 9 years ago? Surely that was just post a huge correction with the GFC?

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

[NeverQuestion]

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

If it makes your feel better, I have been waiting for a market correction in the Housing Market for a long time. There have been a few chances in the last 8 Years that I was in a position to make an offer, but last minute decided the amount of debt was too much to service, and the Market was surely about to correct. There was also no guarantee that I would get in with the amount of funds I was offering for the property anyway. A lot for a First home buyer, but not much for an Investor. My play now is to wait for the Share Market cycle. Attempt to use the huge % increase to build up enough for a deposit, and hopefully out climb the housing market increase. If not then repeat and it will hopefully make a good retirement fund :)

Given the Housing Market in NZ and AUS has climbed and then Plateaued over multiple cycles.. Trend is not my Friend on this :(

[RupertBear]

Mostly a joke but it is the sad element of truth to it that should provide the big laughs for everyone other than me.

My apology for the laughing faces earlier, I wrongly assumed you were joking. My bad :( All he best for your investing when you decide the time is right for you :)

[RTM]

Yep about 9 years ago, just waiting for the next leg down.

I did the same with my USA stocks when Trump got in.
Still hurts. A lot.

[bull....]

bit of a ugly night on the us markets tonight

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/us-markets-rising-rates-economic-data-and-politics-in-focus.html

another huge drinks company making move into weed

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/constellation-brands-earnings-stock-price-surges-after-first-earnings-since-canopy-growth-marijuana-investment-2018-10-1027590537

nz becomes first country in the world to demand passwords

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/04/fork-over-passwords-or-pay-the-price-new-zealand-tells-travelers.html

[Aaron]

:lol::lol::lol:

PS I was assuming you were joking, if not then I apologise for my insensitivity :)
No problem, I was just joking.

[moka]

Yep but I had just avoided a margin call near the bottom 2008 or 2009 (can't really remember) which would have been disastrous, I fortunately bought into all the equity raisings so when I broke even again I bailed out and have not really got back in, in any great way. Fear is obviously a bigger driver for me than greed. Also I kept reading that the problem was debt and the GFC had been solved with more debt so this wasn't really a long term solution. Central banks have responded with unprecedented monetary policy as well. Anyway the debt cycle and economic cycle may not have been beaten, just delayed. My concern now is that confidence in cash gives way or inflation in everything else catches up to assets and money becomes worthless before a share market crash. No one worth listening to has ever said timing the market is a good idea but, it is my main idea for now.

I can relate to your fear, Aaron. I had shares in Pike River Coal and after the explosion I sold all my shares including boring old Ryman and got completely out of the sharemarket. It took a while to get back in and I did so gradually. It was hard work overcoming my fear. Now the pain of losing that money has gone but I learnt a very valuable lesson - that black swan events can and do happen and things can change very quickly in the course of a day.
Greed and fear – 70% greed and 30% fear. The greed or optimist side has to dominate but there has to be a strong element of fear or caution. Feel the fear – it’s essential to control greed.

[tuaman]

Mark Zuckerberg Quotes (https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/mark_zuckerberg)

(https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/mark_zuckerberg_453463)




The biggest risk is not taking any risk... In a world that changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/treasuries-witnessed-biggest-outflow-since-march-2016-lipper-reuters-201810050425

Treasuries witnessed biggest outflow since March 2016: Lipper - Reuters

[arc]

Hovering around the nervous edge, yield curve is making some instos rethink their bond holdings.

http://thepatientinvestor.com/index.php/2018/09/01/does-the-yield-curve-warn-of-a-recession/

https://www.gurufocus.com/yield_curve.php

[winner69]

When the curve was flattening consensus was it’s bad for stocks. Now rates are rising consensus is that’s bad for stocks too.

What’s going on ....are we doomed no matter what?

Makes good headlines and all that stuff but the world just carries on

Best to ignore all this market noise ....esp the peripherall stuff and focus on profits

[bull....]

When the curve was flattening consensus was it’s bad for stocks. Now rates are rising consensus is that’s bad for stocks too.

What’s going on ....are we doomed no matter what?

Makes good headlines and all that stuff but the world just carries on

Best to ignore all this market noise ....esp the peripherall stuff and focus on profits

looks like some rotation away from tech to defensives

[Aaron]

When the curve was flattening consensus was it’s bad for stocks. Now rates are rising consensus is that’s bad for stocks too.

What’s going on ....are we doomed no matter what?

Makes good headlines and all that stuff but the world just carries on

Best to ignore all this market noise ....esp the peripherall stuff and focus on profits

Focus on profits? A wise man once gave us this graph to ponder. If I am reading it correctly prices are getting ahead of profits. Possibly way ahead of profits, particularly in a recession if earnings decrease.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=10011&d=1538291588


I don't know if the flattening yield curve was bad for stocks. It was more a possible indicator of a recession which is good for stocks because it will herald QE4.

[bull....]

yuk nasty , except for the utilities. those growth stocks are getting hammered

[blackcap]

yuk nasty , except for the utilities. those growth stocks are getting hammered

Quite happy about that myself. I shorted (for small amounts via a derivative product with Binck Bank) FB, AMZN, TSLA, and GOOG about 2 weeks ago and am going to let this ride for a bit. Think especially AMZN but the other too are over-extended. Time will tell as always.

[bull....]

Quite happy about that myself. I shorted (for small amounts via a derivative product with Binck Bank) FB, AMZN, TSLA, and GOOG about 2 weeks ago and am going to let this ride for a bit. Think especially AMZN but the other too are over-extended. Time will tell as always.

your well positioned

[blackcap]

your well positioned

Thanks, yes I am but it was for small amounts and there was no real science behind the timing or anything. Just well these stocks look like the PE is too high so lets take a position. Will be interesting to see how the NZ market reacts today to the drops on the Dow et al.

[Balance]

Good deep sharp correction - usually a good way of letting off steam from overheated markets.

Investors better hope that's the case and that the corrections will be short too!

[bull....]

Good deep sharp correction - usually a good way of letting off steam from overheated markets.

Investors better hope that's the case and that the corrections will be short too!

pretty wild the last hour , most indexs showing oversold readings on intraday and some dailies be interesting if we get a bounce tomorrow ... time will tell eh

[Joshuatree]

3 to 4% correction on major USA indexes,
Nasdaq 4% down the winners this year taken down , apple , microsoft etc
Value over growth .

I noticed 5 directors buying good amounts of their company Long Short Fund LSF in the last few weeks.

[sb9]

Good day to get out and do some big long spring clean!!! Don't look at your portfolio for the day, if you don't need to....

[Raz]

Good day to get out and do some big long spring clean!!! Don't look at your portfolio for the day, if you don't need to....

Happy I cash up a good amount in the US, think this may be eventful.

[percy]

Good day to get out and do some big long spring clean!!! Don't look at your portfolio for the day, if you don't need to....

Very busy adding up my increasing fully imputed dives ..!!!...lol.

[Baa_Baa]

Very busy adding up my increasing fully imputed dives ..!!!...lol.

..... 🙈🙉🙊.....

[couta1]

Let the panickers panic,much regret comes later when after selling for a loss the SP rises above your sale price.Lol

[Bjauck]

The Capital growth on the NZ exchange was already about 9% this financial year...prime for a correction I would have thought.

[couta1]

Just one blue arrow on my portfolio being HLG and the only company that's keeping my overall balance in the blue, who would have thought a wee clothing company could save your bacon.

[Balance]

Interesting market - the two stocks I have buy orders 2c away from yesterday's closing prices are holding up.

Not happy.

[Leftfield]

Just one blue arrow on my portfolio being HLG and the only company that's keeping my overall balance in the blue, who would have thought a wee clothing company could save your bacon.

Good day to take a walk...... methinks it is early days yet and is likely to get worse.

[bull....]

there was technical damage done last night on the us indices , anyway nz and the us were outperforming the other markets which were already in correction so is it catchup time?

[couta1]

Good day to take a walk...... methinks it is early days yet and is likely to get worse. Too knackered to take a walk after a hard days skiing yesterday, just have a good laugh at the insanity instead.

[NeverQuestion]

You know it's going to be bad day when you see this thread pop up again.

Buckle up. This might be a crazy ride. And I really hope this isn't a trigger point.

[Jonboyz]

Exciting! What are the best bargains to be found? As expected, the more speculative stocks are diving faster but I think I like the look of sturdier long-termers like RBD, SUM and MEL to top up on.

[Joshuatree]

Good day to take a walk...... methinks it is early days yet and is likely to get worse.

Careful what you wish for. A herd mentality can manifest anything. A healthy correction imo in this mature bull run. Many companies are still reporting good growth and results and consumer spending is healthy too.

[Bobdn]

I feel pretty comfortable about getting my face ripped off today, because everybody else is. I only really feel upset when everyone else seems to be doing well and I'm not. But when everyone is hurting, it feels ok.

[bull....]

Careful what you wish for. A herd mentality can manifest anything. A healthy correction imo in this mature bull run. Many companies are still reporting good growth and results and consumer spending is healthy too.

most countries growth is starting too slow apart from the us which may slow from next yr

[Ggcc]

Keep plodding in the garden with my head in the ground. Geez this might be another correction

[bull....]

wouldnt be surprised to see another 500pt down open tonight and then see what happens. major technical levels broken last night

[Joshuatree]

https://www.afr.com/business/bankin...atives-crisis-bank-of-england-20181009-h16fdy (https://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/eu-must-act-soon-to-avert-41tn-brexit-derivatives-crisis-bank-of-england-20181009-h16fdy)

[bull....]

us futures down over 400pts for open tonight already

[couta1]

us futures down over 400pts for open tonight already Looks like they need a major distraction like a nuke being fired to shake them out of their panic or alternatively just close the market for a week or two.

[blackcap]

us futures down over 400pts for open tonight already

Bull, do you have a link for a good US futures site? Actually don't worry, just found a really good one on CNBC.

Well if its going to be another 400 that is really interesting. I like it when these times of volatility hit the market as it shakes things up and makes for a lot of opportunities.

[bull....]

Bull, do you have a link for a good US futures site?

Well if its going to be another 400 that is really interesting. I like it when these times of volatility hit the market as it shakes things up and makes for a lot of opportunities.

if you dont have a futures account with a stock broker use this

https://www.ig.com/au

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-nz/

just scroll down there home page for prices

[blackcap]

if you dont have a futures account with a stock broker use this

https://www.ig.com/au

https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-nz/

just scroll down there home page for prices

That is so funny. I actually have an account with IG, active, and I use it. Never thought there to look at the indices. DUH.

Thanks, appreciate it.

[minimoke]

I better try to generate some cash. There will be bargains aplenty. And as I recollect markets bounce back stronger than ever after a correction

[bull....]

That is so funny. I actually have an account with IG, active, and I use it. Never thought there to look at the indices. DUH.

Thanks, appreciate it.

im using td ameritrade for futures but ig good too

[pg0220]

I better try to generate some cash. There will be bargains aplenty. And as I recollect markets bounce back stronger than ever after a correction
Agreed, but do you think this correction will continue till tomorrow, Monday or throughout the next week?

[minimoke]

Agreed, but do you think this correction will continue till tomorrow, Monday or throughout the next week?
I'm expecting more carnage over the next couple of days

[GTM 3442]

Agreed, but do you think this correction will continue till tomorrow, Monday or throughout the next week?

I read a lot of commentary on the world's financial markets, and the world and regional economies.

For a while now, there has been an undercurrent of "What will be the next black swan event that trashes the markets?"

But maybe you don't need a singular black swan, maybe a herd of grey swans will be sufficient. But how many swans make a herd? Are we there yet? Who's counting?

[JBmurc]

I'm expecting more carnage over the next couple of days

I agree ... Asian markets even bigger falls .... Trump coming out with "the FED is crazy comment WTF??"

Far too many global issues underway not to see a good size correction .. Bitcoin looks on the verge of imploding ...as the fact is just a very risky tech investment and not a smart currency ..

Gold producer majors doing well on the ASX

[bull....]

I agree ... Asian markets even bigger falls .... Trump coming out with "the FED is crazy comment WTF??"

Far too many global issues underway not to see a good size correction .. Bitcoin looks on the verge of imploding ...as the fact is just a very risky tech investment and not a smart currency ..

Gold producer majors doing well on the ASX

gold not going up though. in times of panic of modes gold normally rises?

[NeverQuestion]

Not that anyone cares but I lost $700 NZD in my portfolio today. Feeling blue. But I'm sure others are feeling worse :( (Considerable percentage given how much is invested)

[minimoke]

Not that anyone cares but I lost $700 NZD in my portfolio today. Feeling blue. But I'm sure others are feeling worse :( (Considerable percentage given how much is invested)
You arent alone - we will all have taken a beating

[Bjauck]

Not that anyone cares but I lost $700 NZD in my portfolio today. Feeling blue. But I'm sure others are feeling worse :( (Considerable percentage given how much is invested)
My portfolio is still heavily weighted to A2 milk and is down 6.5% over the past fortnight according to Sharesight.

[percy]

You have to laugh.
My two smallest holdings are in Australia;LBL and VRM.Both up today,, 11.1% and 5.9%.!!
Right back to counting up my divies….lol.

[JBmurc]

Not for the very start as investors and traders are selling the liquid asset to maintain margins in their equity accounts.... thats why I think we might see GOLD move as fear feeds into the market over the next week as new investment finds the safe haven instead

[Bjauck]

gold not going up though. in times of panic of modes gold normally rises?
I think in the last GFC gold went down from approx 1000 to 750 USD in the first year. So there was a sell off of assets for cash?

[GR8DAY]

OCEANIA Gold (OGC Au) in which I hold a few are relatively unscathed even though gold is still just treading water. Top company with top management in place and one of the lowest cost producers on the planet. If
/when Gold does take off northwards again I wouldnt hesitate throwing more of my wifes inheritance at this one. (naturally I'd get permission first)

[bull....]

I think in the last GFC gold went down from approx 1000 to 750 USD in the first year. So there was a sell off of assets for cash?

correct , but im thinking in previous corrections gold went up. so makes you think whats going on

[Miway]

Lots of Lemmings in the market now! As an investor I'll keep my life jacket on and sit tight for however long it takes

[Beagle]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/48859e0e/market-close-nz-shares-drop-to-4-month-low-following-wall-st-rout-a2-slumps-11.html
9th straight day of declines. What's especially taxing about today's loss is that wipes half the remaining gains for the market for the whole year out in one single day.
NZX50 gross index (which includes gross dividends received all year) up just 3.9% for the whole year now. :(
"Still, the NZX50 remains up 3.9 percent for the year-to-date, outperforming almost every other major index across Asia"

I suppose we should be relieved that at least our market is still up for the year unlike some others.

[couta1]

Not that anyone cares but I lost $700 NZD in my portfolio today. Feeling blue. But I'm sure others are feeling worse :( (Considerable percentage given how much is invested) I'm not going to put how much my portfolio went down but think serious Carnage on a large scale. Just cheer yourself up thinking of how all those sheep are going to feel when this turns around and they realise they have been fear fleeced.

[Ggcc]

Lots of Lemmings in the market now! As an investor I'll keep my life jacket on and sit tight for however long it takes

You won’t be the only one. I’m holding on as well with two life jackets. If you don’t need the money in a hurry hold on to your shares, as panic selling is taking place on all shares. Longterm remains intact and what good share goes down, will go up over time. I am going to try to stop looking at my shares for a while while things stabilise. Feeling sorry for those people that need the money right now selling at cost or well below.

[Bobdn]

January 2016 was my worst month so far (excluding October 1987 of course). My portfolio was down a full 7.5% after a couple of weeks. I bought BHP in November 2015 thinking I had a lovely bargain and then all hell broke loose over summer. It was probably the worst month for most people here.

It's easy to forget the bad times when there have been so many good times over the last decade.

Some history for those that have joined the party late:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/12139939/The-real-reason-stock-markets-plunged-in-January.html

[Raz]

January 2016 was my worst month so far (excluding October 1987 of course). My portfolio was down a full 7.5% after a couple of weeks. I bought BHP in November 2015 thinking I had a lovely bargain and then all hell broke loose over summer. It was probably the worst month for most people here.

It's easy to forget the bad times when there have been so many good times over the last decade.

Some history for those that have joined the party late:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/12139939/The-real-reason-stock-markets-plunged-in-January.html

Yeah, not going to crunch todays numbers..sure lived thru worse days..:)

[mshierlaw]

fear fleeced.

Best of the day by far.

[Lorne Ranger]

When is Trump going to be formally identified as a Financial Terrorist? (To add to his many other labels...)

[troyvdh]

Dear ranger...spot on....the guy is virtually illiterate....his comprehension of any seemingly common acknowledged financial basics is zilch..him and fred I believe went bankrupt 6 times....this fiasco is indeed quite frightening...

[blackcap]

Dear ranger...spot on....the guy is virtually illiterate....his comprehension of any seemingly common acknowledged financial basics is zilch..him and fred I believe went bankrupt 6 times....this fiasco is indeed quite frightening...

Which fiasco are you talking about? A bit of disturbance on the financial markets and people getting knickers in a twist? When Trump took office if I remember correctly the DOW stood at about 18,000. I do not know what the fuss is about.

[couta1]

Which fiasco are you talking about? A bit of disturbance on the financial markets and people getting knickers in a twist? When Trump took office if I remember correctly the DOW stood at about 18,000. I do not know what the fuss is about. 10/2 yield curve is on the rise during this correction so no worries, onward and upward in due course.

[troyvdh]

blackcap....me thinks you are missing the point.Trump believes in winning....at all costs...no negotiation...no half way...I have no idea how old you are but life has taught me ..that 'winning'...is temporary...he believes that the trajectory of the Dow is indictative of :"winning"....being successful...a great financial brilliant minded juggernaught.......................... a "fuss" you say.....i say with all due respect...you are wrong.....I could go on...

[Joshuatree]

DOW looks to be opening re 327 points down atpit.

[janner]

Just think of it as only money that you have no other use for.

[JBmurc]

OCEANIA Gold (OGC Au) in which I hold a few are relatively unscathed even though gold is still just treading water. Top company with top management in place and one of the lowest cost producers on the planet. If
/when Gold does take off northwards again I wouldnt hesitate throwing more of my wifes inheritance at this one. (naturally I'd get permission first)


GOLD Back over $1200oz USD to 1205 ... gutted I knew should have gone long on Gold or silver ... instead long NCM which should still do well tomorrow if GOLD can break 1215oz tonight will be a very bullish move

[bull....]

wouldnt be surprised to see another 500pt down open tonight and then see what happens. major technical levels broken last night

we didnt get the 500pt down open thats bad in my opinion got a bounce at open instead means more selling is coming i reckon. aus looks nasty already for tomorrow wonder if nz follows aus

was also wondering why gold wasnt bid yesterday but i see its doing its normal thing now

[minimoke]

Just been on STUFF (I know - you dont have to harangue me). Apparently Jono and Ben are calling it quits. But not one single word on the sharemarkets here or overseas. We must be over re-acting

[blackcap]

Just been on STUFF (I know - you dont have to harangue me). Apparently Jono and Ben are calling it quits. But not one single word on the sharemarkets here or overseas. We must be over re-acting

haha that is so funny. My partner often complains how little actual news stuff has these days. Where do you actually go to find a good news (based on facts without opinion) outlet. Stuff has become the womens weekly, its sad really, because that is what we the consumer are actually demanding for them to put it out there for the clicks.

As to the markets, I see the Dow is falling after opening up positive early on, but has held up well contrary to predictions.

[Raz]

haha that is so funny. My partner often complains how little actual news stuff has these days. Where do you actually go to find a good news (based on facts without opinion) outlet. Stuff has become the womens weekly, its sad really, because that is what we the consumer are actually demanding for them to put it out there for the clicks.

As to the markets, I see the Dow is falling after opening up positive early on, but has held up well contrary to predictions.

Looking now nasty and time running out for many on margins.

[blackcap]

Looking now nasty and time running out for many on margins.

Yeah that last half hour the bottom just dropped out of it!

[dragonz]

When is Trump going to be formally identified as a Financial Terrorist? (To add to his many other labels...)

Trump mania is a real thing lol. Financial terrorist now is it. Jesus you anti Trumpers need ya head checked

[dragonz]

Which fiasco are you talking about? A bit of disturbance on the financial markets and people getting knickers in a twist? When Trump took office if I remember correctly the DOW stood at about 18,000. I do not know what the fuss is about.

These people would blame Trump for the size of their penis.

[blackcap]

These people would blame Trump for the size of their penis.

There is a condition named for it and in NZ the left wing were afflicted with it called KDS (Key derangement syndrome)

Unfortunately it seems TDS has also infected those of the righter persuasion these days.

[dragonz]

blackcap....me thinks you are missing the point.Trump believes in winning....at all costs...no negotiation...no half way...I have no idea how old you are but life has taught me ..that 'winning'...is temporary...he believes that the trajectory of the Dow is indictative of :"winning"....being successful...a great financial brilliant minded juggernaught.......................... a "fuss" you say.....i say with all due respect...you are wrong.....I could go on...

When you get a little older life may teach you that "right and wrong" can be very subjective. Most of us have been here many times before and there is no need to panic. Trump has nothing to do with this

[Scrunch]

When you get a little older life may teach you that "right and wrong" can be very subjective. Most of us have been here many times before and there is no need to panic. trump has nothing to do with this

Not quite. One of the concerns is around reduced freedom of trade and the financial impacts of this. Trump has something to do with that.

[minimoke]

Not quite. One of the concerns is around reduced freedom of trade and the financial impacts of this. Trump has something to do with that.Those concerns had been around long before yesterday. Easy to blame trump for everything as its easy now to blame Herdlicker for ATM's plummet.

The market is what it is. It always goes up. It always goes down - and at times falls off a cliff. But it always recovers. Put this date in your calendar for next year and when the day arrives reflect on the past 12 months. (Won't stop me grumbling in the meantime!)

[blackcap]

Not quite. One of the concerns is around reduced freedom of trade and the financial impacts of this. Trump has something to do with that.

I think you will find the the US economy is doing quite nicely at the moment. The stock market and economy are mutually exclusive at the worst of times and often on divergent paths. So the Dow dropping a bit is not really a reflection on Trump. If it is, that is fine, but then you have to give him credit for the huge run of the last 2 years as well.

[dragonz]

Not quite. One of the concerns is around reduced freedom of trade and the financial impacts of this. Trump has something to do with that.

And good for him. I watched during the 80's and 90's as 10's of thousands of Kiwis were thrown on the scrap heap for the sake of freedom of trade. We had brought in thousands of cheap labour then told them that they should be computer experts. Of course they supplied a convenient unlimited supply of very cheap labour. And we continue to add to their ranks. Love what Trump is doing. Lets hope we get a version of him here one day.

[Aaron]

GOLD Back over $1200oz USD to 1205 ... gutted I knew should have gone long on Gold or silver ... instead long NCM which should still do well tomorrow if GOLD can break 1215oz tonight will be a very bullish move

Gold $1,223 as I write, yesterday wasn't bad, today might also be good for gold producers. Does NCM have better long term prospects than the likes of EVN or NST?

I haven't done any research but bought gold producers sometime back on the view that gold will be Plan B in the event of currency failure and an insurance policy if financial markets suffer some volatility. If I had any balls I would have loaded up yesterday but the doomsayers I read also suggest gold will drop along with everything else.

[horus1]

Well I bought EBO yesterday . Happy

[JBmurc]

Gold $1,223 as I write, yesterday wasn't bad, today might also be good for gold producers. Does NCM have better long term prospects than the likes of EVN or NST?

I haven't done any research but bought gold producers sometime back on the view that gold will be Plan B in the event of currency failure and an insurance policy if financial markets suffer some volatility. If I had any balls I would have loaded up yesterday but the doomsayers I read also suggest gold will drop along with everything else.

NCM has very large GOLD/Copper reserves and low operating costs in Aussie mines so very safe IMHO and on many levels could well be a takeover target for the likes of BHP .

[hogie]

Can't wait for another exciting day of watching my fortune slip away like a landslide :t_up:

[bull....]

wild night again be time for bed soon lol im in 70% cash now and looking to go on holiday soon to much uncertainty now with all these terrible charts patterns world wide.

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

time to bank a good chunk of me cash lol

[gbogo]

[QUOTE=bull....;733417]...looking to go on holiday soon to much uncertainty now with all these terrible charts patterns world wide.


I have learnt over the years, that when there is uncertainty and it is not clear what the best thing to do is, that is the very best time to enter the market. By the time everything is "clear", it is often too late and the market has already moved to the new level.

Of course, it is much easier to say this than to do it!

[couta1]

Bit more Fear Fleecing today and then all the sheep selling at a loss will be looking for their wool once the market starts rising next week.Lol

[skid]

Trump mania is a real thing lol. Financial terrorist now is it. Jesus you anti Trumpers need ya head checked

Im sure Trump will buy his way back out of this..(talk of more tax cuts?)...Its a bit further down the line that it will really hit imo---lots of US stocks are still riding the tax cut profits.and buying back ....and there may be more to come....but we know ''tax cut'' profits are not the real thing..dont we?....Trump is not a long term thinker ....He's an ''instant gratification''slight of hand sort of guy.....the economy and sharemarket is often not a comfortable bedfellow with democracy.(what could be more ''certain'' than a dictatorship).as long as authoritarianism is in play you may be good ...for now.................the big problem is ..Trump is just not that sharp(he doesnt realize why interest rates go up..or why normally presidents dont make public statements that influence markets....He only thinks of how to make himself look less bad)--Problem with his administration is people bumping into each other all the time break things.

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;733417]...looking to go on holiday soon to much uncertainty now with all these terrible charts patterns world wide.


I have learnt over the years, that when there is uncertainty and it is not clear what the best thing to do is, that is the very best time to enter the market. By the time everything is "clear", it is often too late and the market has already moved to the new level.

Of course, it is much easier to say this than to do it!

thats a good thing to do normally. the only probably with this strategy now is the bull is 10 years old and your betting it will keep going up. i prefer better risk/reward in my betting and esp when things turn for the worse.

you might get a bounce some day and all the people will call the end to the selling , but one day does not make a trend. everyone to there own in the end

[Bobdn]

Couta, next week, or in 4 years (average time to recover from a crash should we get to a crash) or 25 years in the case of the 1929 crash. There is certainly a 20 per cent to 50 per cent correction looming. Is this it? No one knows

[couta1]

Couta, next week, or in 4 years (average time to recover from a crash should we get to a crash) or 25 years in the case of the 1929 crash. There is certainly a 20 per cent to 50 per cent correction looming. Is this it? No one knows I say it isn't.

[Beagle]

S&P 500 broke down a fair way below its 200 day MA today. Make of that what you will but I have been selectively raising cash and going more defensive.

[Leftfield]

S&P 500 broke down a fair way below its 200 day MA today. Make of that what you will but I have been selectively raising cash and going more defensive.

Agree.... good strategy in these times.

[skid]

I say it isn't.

I think the short terms odds are with you in the USA and its influence,(futures are up) because of the lollies in play from tax cuts .They seem to be in the ''greed is good''state of mind at this point..but there is still alot of risk,especially in the medium to long term. We know at some point it will come ,and with all the protective regulations thrown out the window,in exchange for short term gains.there is not going to be much to fall back on. And thats the whole problem with this somewhat loose canon over there across the water--It affects us all......

[Baa_Baa]

Why markets are sliding and who you should blame for it

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/107789230/why-markets-are-sliding-and-who-you-should-blame-for-it

[blackcap]

Dow up 192 and Nasdaq up 66 in post market trading now. So a bit of a claw back. Will it hold?

[nocomment]

can someone let us know when its safe to go back in and pick up some bargains?

[peat]

can someone let us know when its safe to go back in and pick up some bargains?

I'll ring a bell mate, just for you!

[dragonz]

wild night again be time for bed soon lol im in 70% cash now and looking to go on holiday soon to much uncertainty now with all these terrible charts patterns world wide.

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered

time to bank a good chunk of me cash lol

I moved 30% into NZ and Global Bonds 3 months ago then watched the rest of my portfolio grow another 8% while my bonds languished. Should have moved to cash but oh well https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-10/two-decade-break-in-stock-bond-link-signals-pain-for-markets

[minimoke]

I continue to pack away the dry powder for when the buying really is risk-free.There is no such thing - you'll have a long wait

[dragonz]

Trump is obviously a first rate nincompoop, you don't need liberal editorials to see that - just listen to his speeches.

As for the sharemarket fall, I doubt it will come to much this time but it has been too late in the cycle to be fully committed to shares for a while IMHO. I continue to pack away the dry powder for when the buying really is risk-free.

Yes I'm sure your liberal sound bites have given you a very accurate picture.

[Blue Skies]

can someone let us know when its safe to go back in and pick up some bargains?


Looks like the tides coming back in now? All my portfolio up from lows.
This correction has been so well anticipated over last year or so, many have lightened their portfolios & loads of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bargains.
Have seen this before & after the dust settles there's been a massive transfer of wealth from the fearful, to the experienced & savvy.

[Joshuatree]

No surprises we are seeing some suddenly professing alliance to trump (and their own personal enrichment, which is suddenly threatened)as he is leading them up the rattrap disguised a yellow brick road. This correction is the Feds fault, the Fed is now a threat to trumps popularity amongst his greedy sickophants. Visceral human vice at work and its LIVE ,watch now!!.Just Human nature so thats ok?! Trump for Emperor of the world ,(hold up cheer card now).

Next Instalment soon is "Lemmings Leap" Dtrumpf " i told them to jump .Its not the fall that kills you"!

[Biscuit]

There is no such thing - you'll have a long wait

Yes, maybe. But, can you name a time when, after a significant fall, and the dust is settling, you wouldn't have done well ploughing everything you can get your hands on into the market?

[blackcap]

No surprises we are seeing some suddenly professing alliance to trump (and their own personal enrichment, which is suddenly threatened)as he is leading them up the rattrap disguised a yellow brick road. This correction is the Feds fault, the Fed is now a threat to trumps popularity amongst his greedy sickophants. Visceral human vice at work and its LIVE ,watch now!!.Just Human nature so thats ok?! Trump for Emperor of the world ,(hold up cheer card now).

Next Instalment soon is "Lemmings Leap" Dtrumpf " i told them to jump .Its not the fall that kills you"!




You will be happy then when Trump gets another 4 years from 2020 to 2024, and after that its President Haley!

[skid]

Looks like the tides coming back in now? All my portfolio up from lows.
This correction has been so well anticipated over last year or so, many have lightened their portfolios & loads of cash sitting on the sidelines waiting for the bargains.
Have seen this before & after the dust settles there's been a massive transfer of wealth from the fearful, to the experienced & savvy.

Is it the ''experienced ''Trump administration thats leading the way?....so far its been good for markets...giving money to the stock markets through tax cuts,even if its a bit morally dicey He has alot of ego invested in that which means he will be ''all in'' on short term plays--Cutting regulations on pollution is of course good for polluters.....So at the moment the market is benefiting from the social costs ..as long as something doesnt hit the fan ---You know he will do even reckless things to keep the stock market going ---So thats good for investors so far that are strictly ''bottom line''........Only thing is there are also some pretty good reasons for being not so reckless----As long as your goals are running parallel to his ''line his own pockets''outlook you should be fine,until it blows up in his face.That however becomes less likely as he tightens control . In the mean time ...why not benefit from authoritarianism?

[skid]

You will be happy then when Trump gets another 4 years from 2020 to 2024, and after that its President Haley!

Has anyone set up a cheerleaders thread yet?

[minimoke]

Yes, maybe. But, can you name a time when, after a significant fall, and the dust is settling, you wouldn't have done well ploughing everything you can get your hands on into the market?
Nope. While I'm hurting with my paper losses yesterday (my own fault) I take comfort from the confidence that in a year all will be looking might rosy.

[Bjauck]

No surprises we are seeing some suddenly professing alliance to trump (and their own personal enrichment, which is suddenly threatened)as he is leading them up the rattrap disguised a yellow brick road. This correction is the Feds fault, the Fed is now a threat to trumps popularity amongst his greedy sickophants. Visceral human vice at work and its LIVE ,watch now!!.Just Human nature so thats ok?! Trump for Emperor of the world ,(hold up cheer card now).

Next Instalment soon is "Lemmings Leap" Dtrumpf " i told them to jump .Its not the fall that kills you"!



The language of hate which is prevalent under Trump and in Brexit has ramifications. Trump has demonised government agencies. The tax chief in the UK (civil servant - not a partisan politician) has received death threats for daring to publish the anticipated costs of Brexit. Under this hostile enironment if someone does something that appears not to blindly support the same policies, they are increasingly demonised.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/11/tax-chief-received-death-threats-over-brexit-cost-estimate

[Proud]

Not sure what is "limp wristed liberals" but there are many kinds of liberalism:


Just a homophobic slur. I have to tell you I am SHOCKED that someone who supports Trump would be a bigot.
Absolutely shocked.

[Blue Skies]

The language of hate which is prevalent under Trump and in Brexit has ramifications. Trump has demonised government agencies. The tax chief in the UK (civil servant - not a partisan politician) has received death threats for daring to publish the anticipated costs of Brexit. Under this hostile enironment if someone does something that appears not to blindly support the same policies, they are increasingly demonised.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/11/tax-chief-received-death-threats-over-brexit-cost-estimate

Sorry this a bit off topic but remember when TV first came in & later the internet, they were heralded as this incredible opportunity for the democratisation of information, everyone would have access to previously 'rationed' knowledge & education. Hasn't quite worked out like that with esp social media having unintended consequences. I see Tim B-L inventor of the internet says there's 3 things needed to save it. 1) Regain control of personal data 2) It's too easy for misinformation to spread, 3) political advertising online has become so sophisticated we need greater transparency & understanding, & is working on a new model.

[skid]

Not sure what is "limp wristed liberals" but there are many kinds of liberalism:

A supporter of liberalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberalism), a political philosophy founded on ideas of liberty and equality

Classical liberalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism), a political or social philosophy advocating the freedom of the individual, parliamentary systems of government, nonviolent modification of political, social, or economic institutions to assure unrestricted development in all spheres of human endeavor, and governmental guarantees of individual rights and civil liberties
Conservative liberalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_liberalism), a variant of liberalism, combining liberal values and policies with conservative stances, or, more simply, representing the right-wing of the liberal movement
Economic liberalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_liberalism), the ideological belief in organizing the economy on individualist lines, such that the greatest possible number of economic decisions are made by private individuals and not by collective institutions
Social liberalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism), the belief that liberalism should include social justice and that the legitimate role of the state includes addressing issues such as unemployment, health care, education, and the expansion of civil rights


To which kind do you object?

Or just the kind of liberalism that thinks there must be a better way of looking at the world rather than crass slanders,winning and losing, and two dimensional thinking?----(what in the world are they doing in New Zealand?)

[Biscuit]

Or just the kind of liberalism that thinks there must be a better way of looking at the world rather than crass slanders,winning and losing, and two dimensional thinking?----(what in the world are they doing in New Zealand?)

Yes, liberalism is primarily about respecting individuals and resolving issues co-cooperatively rather than by applying power. Considering New Zealand's relative lack of power internationally, it's hard to understand any New Zealander applauding any shift away from liberalism.

[Blue Horseshoe]

It's been a black day on the Black Monday thread

[Biscuit]

It's been a black day on the Black Monday thread

on the other-hand, the market has had a pretty good day - calm before the storm?

[Beagle]

Feeling exhausted, deflated and wrung out...cheer up you're not the only one. By any account its been a very tough week for a lot of people.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/85f60df5/market-close-nz-shares-snap-losing-streak-as-a2-blue-chips-bounce-back.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20snap%2 0losing%20streak%20as%20A2%20blue-chips%20bounce%20back&utm_content=MARKET%20CLOSE%20NZ%20shares%20snap%20 losing%20streak%20as%20A2%20blue-chips%20bounce%20back+CID_43bacaaada8cfc2a881c81cc 173ee136&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle85f60df5market-close-nz-shares-snap-losing-streak-as-a2-blue-chips-bounce-backhtml
NZX50 index down 4.1% for the week wiping out nearly half the whole years gain in one week but cheer up again, we have one of the very best performing markets in Asia and almost the best yield as well.

I'm going to make sure I stay well hydrated this weekend as I have a lot of wounds to lick and I don't want to run out of saliva.

[Tomtom]

It doesn't requires nerve or guile to sail gentle seas. It's great storms and the fear they create that leave opportunity in their wake.

[blackcap]

It doesn't requires nerve or guile to sail gentle seas. It's great storms and the fear they create that leave opportunity in their wake.

As I type, Dow Futures up 480 and Nasdaq up 175. What were people worried about.

[Beagle]

As I type, Dow Futures up 480 and Nasdaq up 175. What were people worried about.

OPh...I don't know...the possibility the Dow might have dropped another 2,000 in a single day ?

[Justin]

ppl start cheer up and celebrate everything rebound :scared: where is the crisis:confused:

[bull....]

the big bounce didnt last long just gone negative dow as i write. im picking big ranges will develop once the correction over and these ranges wont conclude in a direction until next yr.

aus looks ugly as for monday be surprised if nz is not down as well. i noticed the strong buying was very narrow in nz to push the indexs up sort of created a false impression really.

A large chunk of nz companies have probably passed peak earnings as the economy comes of the boil , the saving grace for the rally really was the us markets for nzx as they were following each other quite closely. a lot of hot money was flowing in because of out performance.

anyway as i say im moving a large chunk to cash i have had a exceptional 10yrs i dont need to be greedy , also as im still resonably young im paying off my mortgage and other debt and whats left will be my play money. Im going for an extended holiday shortly from the markets except for a few div income stocks which i dont really care if they go down.

[percy]

Yes the last few years have been very kind to us.
This week I sold BIN in Aussie.Bin good to me,however I lacked total conviction, so sold.
Most of my NZ portfolio is made up of companies paying increasing fully imputed divies,so no changes need to be made.
Already had the portfolio "well positioned" for what ever the markets decided to do.

[couta1]

Yes the last few years have been very kind to us.
This week I sold BIN in Aussie.Bin good to me,however I lacked total conviction, so sold.
Most of my NZ portfolio is made up of companies paying increasing fully imputed divies,so no changes need to be made.
Already had the portfolio "well positioned" for what ever the markets decided to do. Time in the market more important than timing the market, like you I have a selection of excellent divvy paying stocks plus defensive growth stocks like OCA, this week was a timely reminder not to be overweight in high PE growth stocks like A2 at this late stage of the bull cycle as those stocks will bare the brunt of any prolonged correction. PS-You spoke too soon bull, US finished nicely in the blue so expecting the same on the NZX come Monday.

[skid]

Time in the market more important than timing the market, like you I have a selection of excellent divvy paying stocks plus defensive growth stocks like OCA, this week was a timely reminder not to be overweight in high PE growth stocks like A2 at this late stage of the bull cycle as those stocks will bare the brunt of any prolonged correction. PS-You spoke too soon bull, US finished nicely in the blue so expecting the same on the NZX come Monday.

Most analysts were predicting a bounce in the short term...but are generally concerned about the medium to long term.(still probably good to keep an eye out for the dead cat scenario.
They need those interest hikes against inflation and as a buffer for if/when things go south...if they cant get away with them without carnage then there will be serious trouble coming when it does go pear shaped---That buy and hold has proved to be a decent strategy in terms of a spread of blue chips that more or less represent the market....individual shares are a different story,depending on how much they vary from the theme....Im sure the folks down at PEB can attest to that

[Joshuatree]

Those trillions in ETF's are another elephant in the room, should there be a move for the exit.
How are you going skid? interested in what you've been doing investment wise? You've been very cautious over the years, arguably over conservative in this long bull mkt. Whats your take and are you all out of the mkt ? cheers JT

[Mudfish]

Okay, people chewing over their portfolio all weekend, licking wounds and/or sighing with relief. Whatever happens next week, happens but people will be looking to re-evaluate their exposure and their ability to sleep in tricky times. Many will be looking for more stable pocket water in a swollen river. Hey, makes OCA look pretty good.

[Beagle]

Rising interest rates in the U.S. may be a sign of things to come. PE contraction for high PE companies a real possibility if we see the 10 year rate expand due to inflationary considerations. We have had a exceptional run in this bull market for nearly 10 years. Going forward I think a more defensive / value approach is warranted. I will leave high forward PE stocks for others to enjoy in terms of their risk-reward equation.

[NeverQuestion]

Rising interest rates in the U.S. may be a sign of things to come. PE contraction for high PE companies a real possibility if we see the 10 year rate expand due to inflationary considerations. We have had a exceptional run in this bull market for nearly 10 years. Going forward I think a more defensive / value approach is warranted. I will leave high forward PE stocks for others to enjoy in terms of their risk-reward equation.

From my own research [Not that I'm qualified to make these calls or anything] I would say that every single Market crash has seen the reserve bank raising interest rates aggressively prior. The problem isn't that they shouldn't raise interest rates. It is just that there is a very fine line between where they need to be to keep inflation in check and overshooting the mark so to speak. Should they raise too slowly then Inflation grows rapidly and people loose confidence in currency [very bad]. Raise too fast and people/companies with a lot of debt default and the market crashes. Hit the mark and the markets keep humming along but not at the same pace as I understand it, minimal defaults, and everyone is out spending as they normally do which keeps the system ticking over.

According to Ray Dalio, we are very close to the end of the cycle. Be defensive, cash is king if unsure, And keep calm!. (Read his book, It is free and explains a lot)

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/billionaire-ray-dalio-we-are-in-the-7th-inning-of-the-current-economic-cycle.html

[Blue Skies]

From what I've been reading over the weekend, what happened to the markets last week falls easily within the bounds of 'normal volatility' & not the start of something more worrying.
There's no recession coming, either in the US or here, and anything which anyone could possibly claim to have triggered this (e.g. slightly raised interest rates) has been known about & anticipated for so long, it's already been factored in to the general equation/prices.
In other words, nothings happened last week which has taken 'the market' by surprise, so any loss of confidence is likely to be artificial (whipped up by media hyperbole, herd reinforcement, algorithms etc etc) & therefore short lived.
In the US, if we take the FANG's (Facebook, Amazon,Netflix & Google ) out of the equation, average US company earnings are at a PE of around 13 with forecast projected earnings growth of around 20% next year, maybe a little less the following year, which sounds fine to me. Trump's going to meet with China's Xi Jinping next month & likely hammer out a trade deal which will be v positive.
Here, obviously a few stocks with high PE's like A2 which are so difficult to put a value on are going to swing wildly, but I could just as well imagine it being back at $13 before Christmas. Many others have conservative PE's & are making good profits.
Anyway just thought i'ld add a few thoughts to the mix at the end of the weekend.

PS & good luck everyone for the coming week

[Raz]

From what I've been reading over the weekend, what happened to the markets last week falls easily within the bounds of 'normal volatility' & not the start of something more worrying.
There's no recession coming, either in the US or here, and anything which anyone could possibly claim to have triggered this (e.g. slightly raised interest rates) has been known about & anticipated for so long, it's already been factored in to the general equation/prices.
In other words, nothings happened last week which has taken 'the market' by surprise, so any loss of confidence is likely to be artificial (whipped up by media hyperbole, herd reinforcement, algorithms etc etc) & therefore short lived.
In the US, if we take the FANG's (Facebook, Amazon,Netflix & Google ) out of the equation, average US company earnings are at a PE of around 13 with forecast projected earnings growth of around 20% next year, maybe a little less the following year, which sounds fine to me. Trump's going to meet with China's Xi Jinping next month & likely hammer out a trade deal which will be v positive.
Here, obviously a few stocks with high PE's like A2 which are so difficult to put a value on are going to swing wildly, but I could just as well imagine it being back at $13 before Christmas. Many others have conservative PE's & are making good profits.
Anyway just thought i'ld add a few thoughts to the mix at the end of the weekend.

PS & good luck everyone for the coming week

conservative PE are the way forward, had cashed up in September half my FANGs portflio and really found I was too attached to them as they have been so good to me..currently happy to have the cash set aside. Expected October volatility as per usual in the northern parts, no really surprise is it? London is getting a tad cold and my last visit in early December to the US will see only decent weather in LA. It’s winter for the money people of the world...

[tuaman]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-wall-street-carnage-to-read-the-economy-look-at-how-much-americans-are-eating-out-2018-10-13

[Balance]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-wall-street-carnage-to-read-the-economy-look-at-how-much-americans-are-eating-out-2018-10-13

Cause and effect.

The reason why Americans are dining out more and more is precisely because the stockmarket has been doing so well - not the other way round!

[tuaman]

Cause and effect.

The reason why Americans are dining out more and more is precisely because the stockmarket has been doing so well - not the other way round!

Sharemarket is only some part of economy. It always up and down without no/unkown reasons. Job is the main player in economy.

[Valuegrowth]

More volatility is ahead for markets.

[couta1]

More volatility is ahead for markets. Always will be, without volatility it can't be a market.

[janner]

Always will be, without volatility it can't be a market.

Exactly... Strawberries are cheap now.. Why ??? ... Risk..

[arc]

Synchronicity
As we all know, good stories often have multiple facets. The present ongoing instability of global markets looks like it may take some time to reach a conclusion. Actions currently being taken by one part of the world are being mitigated by others. There’s more to the picture than just profit/loss statements, It’s a global chess game, checkmates and all.

I find it interesting to consider side aspects such as the role played by innovation. It’s something that happens when there is support for the basic R&D processes driving it, bringing the changes online for general public consumption. When R&D declines we see corresponding upstream effects and eventual lack of "progression".

European loss of faith
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/china-emerging-markets-are-rising-us-led-order-ending-ian-bremmer.html?recirc=taboolainternal


European IMF
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/10/listen-to-the-imfs-new-warning-economist-says-and-cut-your-exposure-to-us-stocks.html?recirc=taboolainternal#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251$s


43% decline in Ford car sales
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/ford-sales-in-china-dropped-43-percent-in-september.html


US Budget
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/us-budget-deficit-expands-to-779-billion-in-fiscal-2018-as-spending-surges.html


US Instos selling a different story
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/goldman-says-the-sell-off-is-just-about-over-so-get-back-into-growth-stocks.html


Commentary
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/stock-drop-of-40percent-to-50percent-is-fair-value-morgan-street-capital.html?recirc=taboolainternal

[Joshuatree]

Thanks arc . One conclusion for me from reading those links; have the discipline to hold until near xmas making the most of the high chance of one more buoyant,feel good push up in the mkts and then sell off at least 50% of my riskier, lower div growth stocks and build a pile of cash and await the turmoil ahead.

Assuming the latest qrtly results coming out now in the USA for one meet expectations and that the traditional runup before year end happens..

[Bjauck]

Sharemarket is only some part of economy. It always up and down without no/unkown reasons. Job is the main player in economy. Companies are the backbone of the economy....even in NZ. Although the NZ share market is small...many of the companies that operate in NZ have overseas parents whose shares are listed on overseas exchanges.

If the shares drop in value they may no longer be able to raise finance from banks whose capital coverage is affected. So the overseas company may divest itself of its non-core NZ assets but there are fewer willing purchasers so it could just close or mothball its NZ branch throwing Kwis out of a job.

[arc]

Thanks arc . One conclusion for me from reading those links; have the discipline to hold until near xmas making the most of the high chance of one more buoyant,feel good push up in the mkts and then sell off at least 50% of my riskier, lower div growth stocks and build a pile of cash and await the turmoil ahead.

Assuming the latest qrtly results coming out now in the USA for one meet expectations and that the traditional runup before year end happens..

I tend to agree and think there is a good chance another "surge" will happen, BUT chance and reality can be bad neighbors at times. If/When it happens im convinced it will be short lived.
Like you I will be keeping a very close eye on events. As far as news goes, For every positive economic comment there seems to be a corresponding negative...

The US economy appears to be steaming ahead, but how much is fueled by debt (also true for any country). Its not the business debt Im concerned about, they typically restructure (fire people) and survive, its the mom and pop debt that appears to be at unsustainable levels. When they fall over businesses have no clients to consume their output.

There is increasing synchronicity across economies/nations at the global scale, many are slowing, many are changing points of view.

Have a look at the S&P chart, add a 12 month moving average, if you can, include data from 2007 till present.
add additional MACD (12,26,9)

[NeverQuestion]

Odd question. Did anyone put part of their portfolio in Yen when things were not looking so great back in 2007/2008? Is that something commonly done when things are not looking so flash?

[arc]

Odd question. Did anyone put part of their portfolio in Yen when things were not looking so great back in 2007/2008? Is that something commonly done when things are not looking so flash?

Not personally. The time period is interesting though.


https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/usd/USD-to-JPY


The yen strengthened/appreciated compared to US$ between 2007 - 2012, [118 range in 2007 down to 79 range in 2012]
roughly 66% gain, all while the stock market took a hammering and values fell.


If/when another recession occurs it will be interesting to track global currencies.

[Beagle]

Harbour Asset Management's latest view https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/research-and-commentary/investment-horizon-harbour-macro-research/
Their latest fact sheet showing major asset allocations for their premier Australasian fund https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/assets/Fact-Sheets/20713403f4/Fund-FS-Equity-Fund.pdf

[dobby41]

Not personally. The time period is interesting though.


https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/usd/USD-to-JPY


The yen strengthened/appreciated compared to US$ between 2007 - 2012, [118 range in 2007 down to 79 range in 2012]
roughly 66% gain, all while the stock market took a hammering and values fell.


If/when another recession occurs it will be interesting to track global currencies.

Playing currencies is a whole other ballgame.

[GTM 3442]

Odd question. Did anyone put part of their portfolio in Yen when things were not looking so great back in 2007/2008? Is that something commonly done when things are not looking so flash?

I looked at it in 2012-2013 but decided against it. And indeed against Japan in general, based on their demographics.

[arc]

Things are moving, fingers are going into the dyke.

https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2169381/chinese-capitalism-crisis-stock-market-rout-drives-private

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/desperate-chinese-middle-class-take-big-risks-move-money-and-themselves

[janner]

Things are moving, fingers are going into the dyke.

From my distant memory.. Those fingers from the boy saved the town..

[Valuegrowth]

There had been massive bond sell-off everywhere. Asian stocks are also getting sold off. In South Korea after stocks foreign sell off have spread to bonds. It seems Australasia and Japan has escaped from market selloff.The strength of dollar is now hurting U.S. companies' earnings. Sharp stock market sell-offs usually send buyers into the Treasury market. But bonds continued to drop. I am wondering where investors will reach next.

[winner69]

There had been massive bond sell-off everywhere. Asian stocks are also getting sold off. In South Korea after stocks foreign sell off have spread to bonds. It seems Australasia and Japan has escaped from market selloff.The strength of dollar is now hurting U.S. companies' earnings. Sharp stock market sell-offs usually send buyers into the Treasury market. But bonds continued to drop. I am wondering where investors will reach next.


......all those shares still have an owner don’t they valuueinvestor

[Valuegrowth]

Exactly winner. They are just changing ownerships each other.

[winner69]

Exactly winner. They are just changing ownerships each other.

Why is it a “sell off” then

[NeverQuestion]

Why is it a “sell off” then

Pretty sure they call it a sell off because they sell lower than the current value and in bulk. It is a significant event when Governments do it. Generally shows lack in confidence in the future value.

[winner69]

Pretty sure they call it a sell off because they sell lower than the current value and in bulk. It is a significant event when Governments do it. Generally shows lack in confidence in the future value.

....but for every seller there’s been a buyer .....showing confidence in future value?

[Sinvester]

....but for every seller there’s been a buyer .....showing confidence in future value?
You are absolutely right Winner, I it's a test of minds. The ones with low tolerance for volatility sell and the ones who see value at discount buy. At the end of the day every share still has an owner, might just not be a happy owner though.

[arc]

From my distant memory.. Those fingers from the boy saved the town..

Yes,correct. Metaphorically I'm wondering though how many additional cracks are yet to appear. When you exceed the number of fingers and toes...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4213031-s-and-p-500-every-7-percent-correction



https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/107943387/bransons-virgin-hyperloop-reportedly-loses-us1b-saudi-investment

[Valuegrowth]

https://finanza.repubblica.it/Bloomberg/2018/10/21/italian_markets_set_for_relief_as_risk_of_junk_rat ing_retreats-PGWOB36JIJUP01_BLE/?refresh_ce

[dobby41]

You are absolutely right Winner, I it's a test of minds. The ones with low tolerance for volatility sell and the ones who see value at discount buy.

Or the smart ones sell, wait for the price to drop further and then buy back in at a discount.

[couta1]

Or the smart ones sell, wait for the price to drop further and then buy back in at a discount. Not really smart, just the luck of the punt really.Lol

[bull....]

just a quick update why i have time , the us is the only major market up for the year now. two assumptions it remains that way or it catches up with every other market on the down side. im in number two a retest of the feb lows. By the way nz is way overvalued still relative to other markets. anyway back to the holiday.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - NZX50 dipped again below the MA200 - though it felt that some of the stocks I am watching started to improve again towards the end of the day ...

Needs still confirmation ... but we certainly do live in interesting times ...