Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/home/articles/morning-talk/2018/04/eleven-years-of-gas-reserves-left---nz-oil-and-gas-ceo.html

[Lewylewylewy]

Labour govt made the rules for ending oil ex in 2030 because:

* it saves face for Jacina because of when she told those at the steps of parliament that she sounds.

* they probably agreed something along those lines with the other political groups that most people didn't want in power, in order to make the deal

* they know it's ridiculous and dumb, which is why they set it at a date that's so far out that future govts can have lots of opportunity to cancel the rule.

It's basically a political game that will result in no change when a future (probably national) party gets in and revokes the decision. Until then those effected may be investors in the area with low confidence and zero political influence (probably no one) and potentially prices depending which way things go (probably no change unless there are contracts ending soon, which from memory i think it was mentioned that there are none).

But yes, this knee jerk, hap hazard, ill thought out, reaction based way to make policy is concerning. They are stupid in so many different ways and are playing political games with our economy, but are good with words and pleasing some. I have no idea if they'll do something that will ruin nz or not during their term. But i think we're seem ok so far (though i have no idea if the future min wage is sustainable or not).

Regarding the min wage, it could just be pushing up inflation at the bottom end to meet the mid and upper ends increase in equity (property gains). Maybe it'll all flow through nicely as a gentle inflation or maybe it will kill business. Who knows? We don't have any research to model outcomes on... 🙄

Like others, I'm trying to reduce my exposure to investments, but keeping in the game as much as i can afford to risk to lower the opportunity cost of things go well.

#HateFarSidePolitics #ThisIsWhatMillennialsInPowerLooksLike
#MarxistNZdisguesedAsLabour

[workingdad]

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/home/articles/morning-talk/2018/04/eleven-years-of-gas-reserves-left---nz-oil-and-gas-ceo.html

Thanks for the link. Very balanced view point put forward by NZOG. Paints a clear picture the government knows sweet all about the details.....

[bull....]

Emission credits. A system of putting money in someones pockets and achieving little.

lol so true , and considering 1 tree hasnt even been planted or likely to i reckon in this term of govt i reckon your be paying nicely from your pocket for participation in the scheme

[BlackPeter]

lol so true , and considering 1 tree hasnt even been planted or likely to i reckon in this term of govt i reckon your be paying nicely from your pocket for participation in the scheme

Pretty sure I've seen recently a photo of a populist bully minister planting a tree. I.e. one has been planted (unless the photo was fake, which is possible). Agree however that they might have issues with planting the remaining 999,999,999 trees :).

[bull....]

syria air strikes taken in there stride by the market , us futures well up at the moment also i was hearing tpp will be renegioated to include the us , it hasnt been ratified by the 6 countries to go live yet so is not in force till that happens.

[Valuegrowth]

The Sun releases an estimated 384.6 yotta watts (3.846×1026 watts) of energy in the form of light and other radiation.

Could there be shift from oil to newly affordable alternatives such as solar power, wind power, and batteries?

http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/ (http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-drop-after-last-weeks-big-gains-as-syria-risk-fatigue-sets-in-2018-04-16

[value_investor]

NZX50 now down back to the same values as it was in January, and you take away the performance of ATM and it doesn't make for pretty reading anymore. Wonder what happens to the index again when FBU comes off this trading halt.

Where do stocks that are so overvalued like AIA, FPH, RBD go from here? RBD announces record numbers and drops because valuation is so sky high. Perhaps this is our first clue.

[kiora]

NZX50 now down back to the same values as it was in January, and you take away the performance of ATM and it doesn't make for pretty reading anymore. Wonder what happens to the index again when FBU comes off this trading halt.

Where do stocks that are so overvalued like AIA, FPH, RBD go from here? RBD announces record numbers and drops because valuation is so sky high. Perhaps this is our first clue.

Depends on inflation & interest rates.Honky dory for now as inflation still low ?

[Hectorplains]

RBD announces record numbers and drops because valuation is so sky high. Perhaps this is our first clue.

RBD result was well flagged by March 4th quarter sales announcement. A drop of less than a percent can hardly be extrapolated as a 'clue' for anything.

[bull....]

big gains in oil last night , breaking out strongly that 70 looking promising shortly , shale production is not keeping up with huge demand for oil at the moment

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/18/us-crude-tops-68-for-the-first-time-in-more-than-three-years.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-oil-exclusive/exclusive-opecs-new-price-hawk-saudi-arabia-seeks-oil-as-high-as-100-sources-idUSKBN1HP1LB

technicals suggest 80 as a possibilty which is the declining trendline from the top

[arc]

International concern,

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/103288560/how-trumps-hairraising-level-of-debt-could-bring-us-all-crashing-down

[arc]

Margin debt at 550 Billion, leveraged loans 1 Trillion. Not looking good...

[couta1]

Margin debt at 550 Billion, leveraged loans 1 Trillion. Not looking good... Welcome to the new normal.

[Valuegrowth]

U.S. Dollar Index has climbed to four month High.

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2018-04-24/asian-shares-advance-as-us-bond-yields-push-dollar-higher

https://www.investors.com/research/futures/alcoa-stock-aluminum-prices-dive-softer-rusal-sanctions/

[value_investor]

Markets tanking in the US today, down close to 500 points on the DOW even after a very strong earnings season. I know the big boys will be loading up on shares at the moment.

Interesting that this happens at the same time as yield rates go over 3%
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/24/us-10-year-treasury-rate-hits-3-percent-for-first-time-since-jan-2014.html

The other interesting part in all this is bitcoin is up 7%. We live in weird times.

[Valuegrowth]

Other weird thing is different asset classes take different directions. Another weird thing is different stocks, commodities and livestock in the same category also take difference directions. In the meantime commodity currencies are falling.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/ichimoku-charts-that-matter-dollar-breaks-out-ahead-of-ecb-cm952610 (https://www.nasdaq.com/article/ichimoku-charts-that-matter-dollar-breaks-out-ahead-of-ecb-cm952610)

Ichimoku Charts ThatMatter: Dollar Breaks Out Ahead of ECB

[bull....]

lol its so weird alright just weird , everything doesnt move in unison anymore? now i have to think about things :(
poor brain not used to it

anyway a 500pt night on the dow is not a tank anymore its a just a tad over a normal night if you consider the vix suggests moves of 1% is normal at the moment and s... not everything went down either utilities and telecoms went up

[Valuegrowth]

Japanese and Hong Kong markets are following Wall Street. Few speculative things are having short term support not because of fundamentals but because of short term speculation on the basis of various types of short term factors and activities of various types of market participants. Definitely, future business outlook will be buoyant not only for some sectors (could vary county to country and region to region) but also for strong balance sheet firms having sustainable business at least for next 10 years. Solid companies will have solid outlook. All short of short term economic, political or weather issues will create opportunities as well.

[bull....]

boeing adding about 80pts to dow at moment , 10.30 est see what happens

utilities and telecoms leading the charge again

[Valuegrowth]

I expect demand for defensive sectors globally especially for attractive stocks during second half of this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/oil-futures-signal-a-flood-of-u-s-exports-is-coming-this-summer

Oil Futures Signal a Flood of U.S. Exports Is Coming This Summer

[bull....]

I expect demand for defensive sectors globally especially for attractive stocks during second half of this year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/oil-futures-signal-a-flood-of-u-s-exports-is-coming-this-summer

Oil Futures Signal a Flood of U.S. Exports Is Coming This Summer

oil sector been very good place to park money last mth

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/industry-performance

[Valuegrowth]

All type of traders makes money if they bet correctly. If not they make losses. Oil has got some short term speculation. Accordingly, there is some support for the moment. But some weird things are happening in the commodity market. Even in 2016 there were some supports for some commodities not because of fundamentals but because of short term speculation exactly during the same period.

[root]

oil sector been very good place to park money last mth

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/industry-performance

Is it all about the Texas Tea, what about some White Petroleum

https://safehaven.com/article/45334/The-War-For-White-Petroleum

[bull....]

Is it all about the Texas Tea, what about some White Petroleum

https://safehaven.com/article/45334/The-War-For-White-Petroleum

totally been good , not the flavour of the mth at the moment though had its dash last year.

[bull....]

if your invested in oil key date to watch next mth

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/25/trump-iran-deadline-550844

i have my exposure thru santos on the asx , no recommedation from me as its under potential takeover offer

wall st like a yoyo at the moment back and forth in range , be nimble is the way to go i reckon

[bohemian]

Loving the first part of yo in yo yo, AMZN up over $100 in after hours this morning.

[bull....]

Loving the first part of yo in yo yo, AMZN up over $100 in after hours this morning.

amazon diffenitely one you didnt want to yoyo with

mentioned it somewhere at 300 as looking good got rubbished by people who thought a stock with a pe of over 100 was insane just to think even a 100 shares at 300 is now worth over 160,000

[Valuegrowth]

Some sectors still will have robust growth in 2018/19 despite some gloomy predictions. According to a report by a travel management group, global business travel is expected to thrive in 2018 and Asia will experience the most robust growth.

According to the International Air Transport Association, global freight traffic grew on average by 7.7 per cent in January and February, marking the strongest start to the year since 2015. American Express Global Business Travel (GBT) is forecasting growth across the travel sector, including transportation and hotel stays.

[bull....]

wall st close right on the trendline of the rising apex , probably retest the lows i reckon if it breaks

[bull....]

tested the recent lows last night, held again

[Leftfield]

tested the recent lows last night, held again

Appreciate your commentary Bull. Here's an interesting article explaining a possible 'Bull Trap' (https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/stock-market-trapped-by-lines-on-a-chart) currently effecting the S&P Index.

Clearly the S&P 500 index is worth watching carefully at the moment and how much this may effect the NZX is also just as interesting!

[root]

I’ve got a chart like that, I’m expecting an outcome one way or the other in the next 10 days.9655

[Baa_Baa]

I’ve got a chart like that, I’m expecting an outcome one way or the other in the next 10 days.9655

Nice simple chart tells a story, thanks.

Elliotwave might say wave (c) could be the double bottom and the bounce thereafter is now minor wave 2 up. Conversely this continues (down) with support at the double bottom suggesting an extended a-b-c.

Alternatively with the channel drawn, it's crunch time. Bounce here or a retest of the double bottom.

Any which way you look at it, the trend is down and massive volatility has entered the sentiment. The double bottom looks to be a compelling target, on face value.

[bull....]

I’ve got a chart like that, I’m expecting an outcome one way or the other in the next 10 days.9655

s&p 500 bounceing of support nicely at the moment.
interesting most of the indices in the us show different patterns and charts , guess this could give comfort that we are still in a correction only at the moment

[kiora]

Who knows?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-bull-market-far-154140347.html

[bull....]

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/stocks-trade-lower-after-jobs-growth-in-united-states-is-less-than-expected-14579579

huge rally of those lows yesterday

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-turns-higher-as-dollar-moves-looming-decision-on-iran-sanctions-tug-at-market-2018-05-04

nearly got to our $70

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/03/buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-bought-stunning-75-million-apple-shares-in-first-quarter.html

buffett loading up on stock

[couta1]

Who knows?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-bull-market-far-154140347.html So the current bull market is only a couple of years old, let the good times roll.

[Jay]

There is a school of thought that says the bull market does not start until it surpasses the previous high before it turned and became a bear market and therefore the bull market does not start from the bottom of the bear so to speak but month(s), years later
Read this a couple of times, can't remember where/who though

[bull....]

Appreciate your commentary Bull. Here's an interesting article explaining a possible 'Bull Trap' (https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-03/stock-market-trapped-by-lines-on-a-chart) currently effecting the S&P Index.

Clearly the S&P 500 index is worth watching carefully at the moment and how much this may effect the NZX is also just as interesting!

s&p500 clearly doesnt seem to be affecting the nz50 at all if you look at the charts , nz50 nearly at new highs , asx nearly at new highs , europe heading back to highs etc

us markets and chinese markets down could be just reflecting all the geo - political noise at the moment once all this resolved? back to highs or down? if down big of course it would affect all markets.
hence why im thinking us markets just marking time but as always when you have elevated geo - risk pays to be careful until becomes more clear.

[Valuegrowth]

It seems food, hotel and travel sector looks buoyant even in 2018.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hotelier-ihg-posts-3-5-062338395.html

Hotelier IHG room revenue rises on strong demand in China

https://financialtribune.com/articles/travel/85729/strong-air-passenger-growth-in-q1-2018

Strong Air Passenger Growth in Q1 2018

https://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/middle-east-air-passenger-traffic-grows-10-7-in-march-on-strong-asia-travel-1.727319

Middle East air passenger traffic grows 10.7% in March on strong Asia travel

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-oil/bp-says-still-sees-oil-at-50-60-bbl-in-2018-as-shale-output-surges-idUSKBN1I23CP

BP says still sees oil at $50-$60/bbl in 2018 as shale output surges

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-rigs-baker-hughes/us-drillers-add-oil-rigs-for-fifth-straight-week-baker-hughes-idUSL1N1S90MK

U.S. drillers add oil rigs for fifth straight week -Baker Hughes

[Leftfield]

s&p500 clearly doesnt seem to be affecting the nz50 at all if you look at the charts , nz50 nearly at new highs , asx nearly at new highs , europe heading back to highs etc.

Yeah interesting...... I have a pet theory that NZX is now a lot more independent of the gyrations in the S&P and therefore less volatile.

I put it down to the steadying influence of Kiwi Saver funds, ACC and the NZ Superannuation fund etc, all having much bigger stakes in NZ companies. I see NZX as a relatively safe 'emerging' little sharemarket.

However, my theory is yet to be tested in a major S&P slump...... so watching with interest.

[bull....]

Yeah interesting...... I have a pet theory that NZX is now a lot more independent of the gyrations in the S&P and therefore less volatile.

I put it down to the steadying influence of Kiwi Saver funds, ACC and the NZ Superannuation fund etc, all having much bigger stakes in NZ companies. I see NZX as a relatively safe 'emerging' little sharemarket.

However, my theory is yet to be tested in a major S&P slump...... so watching with interest.

dont disagree that the funds in nz have smoothed things but disagree that nzx is independant of wall st.

go to anz securities
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqeg=US&qqsc=spy&QuickQuote=+Go+

go to charts from the dropdown box , plot, then go to supercharts (spy is the s&p500 etf ) and then compare it to nz50 index , you will observe that nz50 still pretty much mirrors the us market.

old saying goes when wall st sneezes everyone catches a cold

[Leftfield]

dont disagree that the funds in nz have smoothed things but disagree that nzx is independant of wall st.
go to charts from the dropdown box , plot, then go to supercharts (spy is the s&p500 etf ) and then compare it to nz50 index , you will observe that nz50 still pretty much mirrors the us market.

old saying goes when wall st sneezes everyone catches a cold

Thanks Bull - I've done your homework and agree that's some correlation!!
Oh well, back to the drawing board and from now on I'll be much more paranoid!! :confused:

[Balance]

Thanks Bull - I've done your homework and agree that's some correlation!!
Oh well, back to the drawing board and from now on I'll be much more paranoid!! :confused:

NZX has always been a low 'beta' market.

Wall St goes up 100%, NZ goes up 50%.

Wall St drops 50%, NZ drops 25%.

Good market to be in if you like lower volatility and if you can avoid the rubbish that NZX is famous for - back door listings, IPOs like Intueri, Feltex, CBL, Tegel, Metro Glass, Wynyard, GeoP - unfortunately the list goes on and on!

[Leftfield]

Thanks Balance - much more reassuring!

The other thing that helps me be less paranoid (and sleep better) is that the index is an 'averaging machine' and there will always be stocks that outperform the 'average.' Best to stick to those stocks (if we can find them.)

9661

hint...hint....

ps I avoid IPO's and this has served me well.

[bull....]

poo just shot over our target

[Valuegrowth]

There could be currency and commodity volatility as well during 2018. Those who hedge correctly could benefit and those who fail to hedge correctly could lose. Even bond market could create some problems.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-06/plenty-of-bond-turmoil-yet-to-come-says-australia-pension-giant

Plenty of Bond Turmoil to Come, Says Australia Pension Giant

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/05/10-year-sp-500-bull-market/

Why The Masses Missed The 10-Year S&P 500 Bull Market

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/time-to-switch-to-defensive-consumer-stocks-rhb-thinks-so

Time to switch to defensive consumer stocks? RHB thinks so.

[thestg]

A year or two ago I read on ST the following about the Dow Jones recovery rate:

“Rebound after a market fall is on average 1.4 times from the bottom, of the time it took to fall.”

This year there was a correction on 30th January and the low was 23rd March.

Therefore so long as the index doesn’t go below 23,533.20 between now & June then will we see it back above 26,400 on 3rd June?

[bull....]

trump iran statement 2pm est , see poo retreated from our target last night but anything could happen after the statement

[bull....]

statement over , poo will be well supported going forward

[bull....]

s&p 500 broke to upside thru that descending downline , see what happens now. poo performed well last night looks like going to 74 next

[root]

Yes, very interesting. Might need another 0.75% and another day to confim the change, and then is it up or sideways from here. Breaking out up is less telling than breaking through the 2580 support.

[bull....]

Yes, very interesting. Might need another 0.75% and another day to confim the change, and then is it up or sideways from here. Breaking out up is less telling than breaking through the 2580 support.

got the continuation last night , like you say time will tell if it turns into a bigger sideways range or charges on to new highs.

[Valuegrowth]

As I said I don’t rule out some intense volatility and sell-off for commodity as well in the coming months. US dollar also could have some volatility.

https://pilotonline.com/business/consumer/article_cfaa9777-58b4-5e2b-9992-9d6d165151ad.html

European stocks take a breather after strong rally

[bull....]

phase 2? of the bull market

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41231/the-three-phases-of-a-bull-market

Phase II may be called the Mark-Up Phase. It occurs as the improved tone of business and rising price action begin to attract public and institutional attention. This second phase is the longest phase and most deceptive of the three phases.

If we in phase 2 30000 dow not unrealistic , actually if you look at a very long term us dollar chart we may have hit the cyclical top around 103 and would suggest all downhill now so bull market will get tail wind of weak dollar earnings amped going forward

was saying nearly a year ago 30000 dow not unrealistic and today we may be setting up for it.

If you consider we are in a range trade at the moment , the intraday chart top was 26616 and the low was 23360 which has been retested a few times now so could be considered the base of the range.
If you subtract the difference 26616 - 23360 = 3256 then add it to the high point of 26616 it would equal a measured move to 29872 pretty damn close to our original thinking of 30000 .... pretty spooky a. we wait an see what happens.

[winner69]

What’s up in the US today bull....

[bull....]

What’s up in the US today bull....

market up everyday from lows , not surprising it must have a down day .. a

[JBmurc]

9691


Doesn't bode well for the general market going from recent history

[winner69]

9691


Doesn't bode well for the general market going from recent history

This time is different eh jbmurc

[bull....]

think todays fed minutes may change things

[kiora]

Want to be depressed?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/93948/john-mauldin-continues-his-description-upcoming-financial-crisis-he-sees-developing

[ratkin]

Italy ���� has sparked up the whole eurozone thing again, could be turbulent times ahead

[bull....]

Italy ���� has sparked up the whole eurozone thing again, could be turbulent times ahead

for sure , bond yields collapsing from 3% safety trade back on in the US utilities , real estate leading

[minimoke]

Time to move capital to safer havens like nz

[bull....]

Time to move capital to safer havens like nz

yes have noticed the utility stocks in nz have started to move up recently , throw in the fact fed unlikely to hike 4 times this yr now i reckon and bonds tumbling its making utilities attractive again.

[Joshuatree]

DOW down big. Trade tensions war rearing up again as well from USA. Eurozone in trouble. Looks a bit rough mkt wise. Yields down.Flight to safety, TWI down. Euro currency lowest since july 2017.

[Valuegrowth]

NZ market is resilient today despite sell-off in assets in other markets. However, there was demand for food related stocks globally. They bucked the trend. Particularly, there was heavy demand for some food related stocks. Going forward defensive sectors will have some demand.

[DarkHorse]

Want to be depressed?
https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/93948/john-mauldin-continues-his-description-upcoming-financial-crisis-he-sees-developing

Kia ora kiora, interesting article thanks. This section sums it up pretty well for the time poor:

Ten years into the ongoing laboratory experiment being conducted by the world’s central banks, everywhere you look there are multiple examples of the kind of lunacy those policies have fomented by reducing the cost of capital to virtually zero and forcing investors to take risks they would ordinarily avoid in order to find some kind of return.
WeWork is one example of a company for whom, in the face of rapid growth, massive negative cashflows aren’t a problem, but there are plenty of others. Uber, AirBnB, SnapChat and, of course, Tesla have all captured the imagination of investors thanks to lofty dreams, articulated by charismatic CEOs—but the day things turn around and the economy begins to weaken or, God forbid, investors seek a return on their investment as opposed to settling for rolling promises of gigantic,

[bull....]

wall st having nice rally into end of mth

[Valuegrowth]

As an asset class livestock commodities were strong during last two days when other assets tanked. Dow rebounded. Asian markets are also rebounding. Short term speculative driven overbought assets are also having pulled back or correction. Baltic Dry index also fell. Attractive opportunities always will appear when markets shake up.

[Joshuatree]

Unemployment in USA down to 3.8%. All sectors doing great, worker shortage on the horizon, wages increasing, inflation low. Economy strong. Big up finish to the week. Purple patch Monday.

[ratkin]

Unemployment in USA down to 3.8%. All sectors doing great, worker shortage on the horizon, wages increasing, inflation low. Economy strong. Big up finish to the week. Purple patch Monday.

All their protectionist policies will be great for them. But what about the rest of the planet

[Valuegrowth]

As I expected overcrowded things including overcrowded stocks fell dramatically as they had extended so much.

However,there are some incredibly cheap European stocks. Then there are very attractive stocks in the Asia-Pacific region. For me Italy problem has created some opportunities. I consider it similar to other European political and economic issues. Eventually they will find a solution. U.S. equities remain very expensive. But still there is some positive moment for USA stocks although U.S. equities have re-entered overbought territory. According to some analysts, earnings expectations for the Asia-Pacifi region ex Japan remain fairly modest and they expect to see upward revisions in coming months. Valuations are looking less expensive following the February sell-off and recent sell-off.

https://russellinvestments.com/us/insights/global-market-outlook/asia-pacific-outlook

Asia Pacific: And the show rolls on

[bull....]

biggest issues next 2 weeks

trade wars
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-03/u-s-allies-push-trump-for-change-of-heart-as-trade-war-looms

fed meeting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-02/fed-meeting-as-inflation-finally-hits-goal-decision-day-guide

nth korea meeting

[bull....]

nasdaq hits another record up 11% this yr one of the best places to be this year so far

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/asian-stocks-seen-mixed-as-global-rally-pauses-markets-wrap

[yabster]

few issues on the horizon...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/104519647/alarm-bells-are-ringing-loudly--but-markets-are-doing-nothing

[petty]

I dont suggest that this will be a cause of the next crash but interested in views on how recent pay increases above that which is normal in the past 10 years could affect the markets in NZ. Both Nurses and Teachers are gunning for significant pay rises compared with recent years. Pay rises lead to inflation? Inflation leads to interest rate rises? Interest rate rises cause instability in the housing market? Not sure if my rationale follows but interested in more learned thoughts on this. ta

[winner69]

I dont suggest that this will be a cause of the next crash but interested in views on how recent pay increases above that which is normal in the past 10 years could affect the markets in NZ. Both Nurses and Teachers are gunning for significant pay rises compared with recent years. Pay rises lead to inflation? Inflation leads to interest rate rises? Interest rate rises cause instability in the housing market? Not sure if my rationale follows but interested in more learned thoughts on this. ta

You are on to it

How do markets behave in a recession is your question eh

Who knows

[Scrunch]

I dont suggest that this will be a cause of the next crash but interested in views on how recent pay increases above that which is normal in the past 10 years could affect the markets in NZ. Both Nurses and Teachers are gunning for significant pay rises compared with recent years. Pay rises lead to inflation? Inflation leads to interest rate rises? Interest rate rises cause instability in the housing market? Not sure if my rationale follows but interested in more learned thoughts on this. ta

Inflation is bad for business if its input costs going up and businesses can't increase prices due to competition or other regulatory constraints. Inflation is good for business if its increasing margins by increasing prices more than costs change (or less discounting increasing the effective price received). If inflation gets above 3% the RBNZ is required to try and contain it and their primary (only?) tool is raising interest rates to cool the economy. Inflation at circa 1-2%, as it currently is has the RBNZ basically saying I'm happy with this so there's no need to change interest rates from their current level.

If there was inflation in the economy and house prices were to remain static for a long time, this would slowly correct the imbalances some see in the housing market. Peoples salaries would go up and house price to income ratios would fall making them more affordable without house owners needing to sell at a loss. Those looking to buy would be happy, but not those owning property.

[bull....]

I dont suggest that this will be a cause of the next crash but interested in views on how recent pay increases above that which is normal in the past 10 years could affect the markets in NZ. Both Nurses and Teachers are gunning for significant pay rises compared with recent years. Pay rises lead to inflation? Inflation leads to interest rate rises? Interest rate rises cause instability in the housing market? Not sure if my rationale follows but interested in more learned thoughts on this. ta

wont have any effect cause the majority of people are not getting big pay rises.

[Jerry]

If they don't pay the teachers and nurses more, they won't have any and we'll have other problems. As it is, I would question why one would apply for a job in Auckland, given the cost of housing. Teachers and nurses can work anywhere in the country. Their 'big' % pay rises are over three years and will lift them to $57,000 pa. 7620 SUM !

[bull....]

If they don't pay the teachers and nurses more, they won't have any and we'll have other problems. As it is, I would question why one would apply for a job in Auckland, given the cost of housing. Teachers and nurses can work anywhere in the country. Their 'big' % pay rises are over three years and will lift them to $57,000 pa. 7620 SUM !

unfortunately in todays society with immigration there is always someone who will work for less.

[arc]

Has everyone noticed the marked decrease in Bitcoin and other scamcoin adverts....
Part of the reason is now making news

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12071241

[Joshuatree]

This John Key one hounding me as much as ever though, on H/C home page.
Tech startupEntrepreneurs create asystem helping Kiwisincrease household income

[Snow Leopard]

This John Key one hounding me as much as ever though, on H/C home page.
Tech startupEntrepreneurs create asystem helping Kiwisincrease household income

You seem to be 'promoting' this one pretty aggressively round here. Are you on commission?

[Joshuatree]

John Key is involved or it would be shut down by now one would think.

[Jay]

Strange, just clicked on it to have a look and what do you know, there were comments added, saying how wonderful it is posted just less than a minute ago etc - yeah right just code to change the time to T - x minutes etc
Clicked on it again about 5- 10 minutes later - same comments from the same "real" clients, however still showing as less than a minute ago etc.
Pass me a Tui.

[blackcap]

John Key is involved or it would be shut down by now one would think.

That is what you would like to think. Dream on JT.

[arc]

This John Key one hounding me as much as ever though, on H/C home page.
Tech startupEntrepreneurs create asystem helping Kiwisincrease household income


Another Bitcoin scam. Your link Redirects to a different website. But thats after the first one runs some nasty code on the users web browser....

"https://adclick.g.doubleclick.net/aclk?sa=l&ai=CBCF8QwgjW_e_K4vn2QTnvYmwDvGUl5BS8fXziLYHwI23AR ABIPa6uxhgq_yyheQYoAGapKCBA8gBCakC5DPusDpysz7gAgCo AwHIA5sEqgT3AU_QEXjmKZtho4uUVNK2UOjZD8K_1VSW2fzISQ FmcCJyN-lnvZs96GrzAPbUeIXGr926UJMRcM-JwfQWBcB21HVDq34Vljlqxdd7nHX62mb4wm1q9cvsi0xIaEe_w zXr26BbFrY_ZP1CyKKZYMMdW-ll8L3eVDIn5-NTlZDwsm2EJF7WS0IDe6vIKuH91xsRn4qU_ZDd9iraBra1RyX2 ZVuxeF0Kp0V9O6fcxfLVHauyoHr-kkvjtQMqc1CuScfsaaVbmKXq8gcsdptrHksubxrmpsbUyCejk1 YFIOsvVIo7dlwlQwLZgXeEURTyGXB-etNUcL0sCYzgBAGgBi6AB87b336oB47OG6gHjc0bqAfVyRuoB9 nLG6gHz8wbqAemvhuoB5jOG9gHANIICQiC4cBgEAEYAbEJulF2 YSpBWaGACgPYEwo&num=1&sig=AOD64_2EiUFT3L9PZKkUY2Yp79Bi7FADeQ&client=ca-pub-6846129216241780&adurl.. ()

=https://no1-finance.com/trending/former-new-zealand-john-key-and-entrepreneur-elon-musk-turns-attention-to-helping-overworked-employees%3F%26ad%3Dnz-jk-1%26place%3D577449af2d2026f2.anonymous.google%26kw d%3D%26trgt%3D%26campid%3D1417843673%26agid%3D5521 8021505&nx=145&ny=147&mb=2"

[Joshuatree]

That is what you would like to think. Dream on JT.

Superiority complex rearing up ? Explain why its been on a bonafide website,H/C who are charging for the use of their website. Why would H/C do this it would just drag them down to a fake news story themselves.

[arc]

Many websites have become the victims of unethical behaviour by client advertisers, and many sites are run by those same advertisers.

The redirected site from your link, no1-finance "." com is already on a long list with others associated with criminal activities. Have a good look at the sites name. no1-
As in "No-One believes this sh##

A Saudi prince telling his people to buy bitcoin ????? Bs

Reality is that the people who bought them, lost big time, with the last drycleaning. The people who took the profits are under investigation. Bitcoin just like the other crypto coins is rigged.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks arc. i intend to notify Hot Copper , the website this john key ad is on and suggest they remove it.

[Valuegrowth]

Sell-off in overbought and overpriced assets intensified during week ending Friday 15/06/2018. Bitcoin, oil, gold and soya bean also followed the trend. Are there any correlation?

Those which went up rapidly within the short run are coming down. May and June sell-off was not limited to developed markets. After Turkey’s currency, Argentina’s peso also tumbled.

Energy companies such as XOM, BP, COP, CLR and WLL were taking some beating while food stocks such as Conagra Brands,(CAG), Kellogg Company (K), Flowers Foods and General mills (GIS) and Tyson foods(TSN) were gradually building and rising their strength.

Market has created opportunity in out of favor sectors thanks to new development and next cycle.

[JoeGrogan]

Sell-off in overbought and overpriced assets intensified during week ending Friday 15/06/2018. Bitcoin, oil, gold and soya bean also followed the trend. Are there any correlation?

Those which went up rapidly within the short run are coming down. May and June sell-off was not limited to developed markets. After Turkey’s currency, Argentina’s peso also tumbled.

Energy companies such as XOM, BP, COP, CLR and WLL were taking some beating while food stocks such as Conagra Brands,(CAG), Kellogg Company (K), Flowers Foods and General mills (GIS) and Tyson foods(TSN) were gradually building and rising their strength.

Market has created opportunity in out of favor sectors thanks to new development and next cycle.

Gold hardly had a run recently, and has not been overbought since December last year - i note it is coming up to a really important support level on the chart. Oil chart is still in a healthy uptrend after its stellar run so far this year. Bitcoin getting hit by yet another security issue, soya feeling the affects of trade war targets. I don't really see a correlation as the most overbought sector for the past couple of years (tech) continues to hit new record highs.

As always the contrarian investor can find many opportunities in unloved sectors, but that shouldn't be until a change in trend comes from that sector, as sectors can be unloved for long periods of time.

I find there is more opportunity in following the momentum and market trend, instead of fighting it - i guess i am not as patient as some. Who knows maybe those corrections you mentioned are opportunities too?

[winner69]

Have a pile of gold and silver from when the world was going to end in 2008 ....think it’s worth less now than what it was back then

[blackcap]

Thanks arc. i intend to notify Hot Copper , the website this john key ad is on and suggest they remove it.

That JK ad is on many websites. I think its one of those google ads. So any website that uses google ads can have that ad on it. And since google knows we are into financial things we are likely to be targeted with it :)
Its pretty easy if you are an advertising firm to use a "celebrity" without their permission. I mean I could make an ad easy with the following "JT says that this is the time to buy COAL" (for example)

[Joshuatree]

Farout, thanks for explaining that blackcap. so the world is getting faker and faker and no-one can do anything about it , atpit. Buck stops with google i guess and revenue is all that matters it seems.:(

[bull....]

Sell-off in overbought and overpriced assets intensified during week ending Friday 15/06/2018. Bitcoin, oil, gold and soya bean also followed the trend. Are there any correlation?

Those which went up rapidly within the short run are coming down. May and June sell-off was not limited to developed markets. After Turkey’s currency, Argentina’s peso also tumbled.

Energy companies such as XOM, BP, COP, CLR and WLL were taking some beating while food stocks such as Conagra Brands,(CAG), Kellogg Company (K), Flowers Foods and General mills (GIS) and Tyson foods(TSN) were gradually building and rising their strength.

Market has created opportunity in out of favor sectors thanks to new development and next cycle.

rotation from growth to defensive im thinking

[bull....]

200 billion more tariffs to come , no backing down now

[Valuegrowth]

I am taking list of companies or industries which are going to benefit from the current situation. What I noticed was in every situation there are winners. Even domestically focused listed companies in China and the USA should do well. Overlooked markets are another place which could have next great opportunities as they are not crowded yet. All crowded markets are having volatility and sell-off.

Investors and traders over reacted to so many things such as fed rate, end of bond buying, euro crisis, brexit, currency volatility and some other reasons in the past as well. They have become new normal. Some defensive stocks are good for all type of market situation. It is natural to have correction for short term speculative driven assets and overpriced extended assets. However, market players have over reacted to quality assets (stocks) as well. I see great opportunity in those areas. Going forward quality out of favor stocks should get limelight.

More tariffs means less trade for some and more opportunity for some. I believe once dusts settle stock markets should rebound again. However I don’t rule out volatility.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/unloved-british-stocks-trigger-a-buy-signal-for-morgan-stanley

Unloved British Stocks Trigger a Buy Signal for Morgan Stanley

[bull....]

I am taking list of companies or industries which are going to benefit from the current situation. What I noticed was in every situation there are winners. Even domestically focused listed companies in China and the USA should do well. Overlooked markets are another place which could have next great opportunities as they are not crowded yet. All crowded markets are having volatility and sell-off.

Investors and traders over reacted to so many things such as fed rate, end of bond buying, euro crisis, brexit, currency volatility and some other reasons in the past as well. They have become new normal. Some defensive stocks are good for all type of market situation. It is natural to have correction for short term speculative driven assets and overpriced extended assets. However, market players have over reacted to quality assets (stocks) as well. I see great opportunity in those areas. Going forward quality out of favor stocks should get limelight.

More tariffs means less trade for some and more opportunity for some. I believe once dusts settle stock markets should rebound again. However I don’t rule out volatility.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-18/unloved-british-stocks-trigger-a-buy-signal-for-morgan-stanley

Unloved British Stocks Trigger a Buy Signal for Morgan Stanley

agree volitilty could well increase as things play out

[Valuegrowth]

Going forward markets should rebound and could close month end strongly. It was a kind of market shakeup for all types of assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities throughout the world. From now onwards fundamentals should rule the market. Sell off has created some great opportunity in overreacted attractive stocks. In a way it was a much needed correction for overheated markets. Just like similar to sell-off, when market rebound strongly there will be plenty of reasons. European and USA markets could rebound by tomorrow itself. Even oversold Asian markets should rebound today. Some defensive stocks are getting limelight again. Some top analysts expect a rotation to defensives to occur in 2018. Sell-off has reduced asset inflation as well. I didn’t expect so much sell off although I expected some sell-off in the first two weeks of June. This brutal selling really have created some great opportunities even life time opportunities globally.

[BlackPeter]

Going forward markets should rebound and could close month end strongly. It was a kind of market shakeup for all types of assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities throughout the world. From now onwards fundamentals should rule the market. Sell off has created some great opportunity in overreacted attractive stocks. In a way it was a much needed correction for overheated markets. Just like similar to sell-off, when market rebound strongly there will be plenty of reasons. European and USA markets could rebound by tomorrow itself. Even oversold Asian markets should rebound today. Some defensive stocks are getting limelight again. Some top analysts expect a rotation to defensives to occur in 2018. Sell-off has reduced asset inflation as well. I didn’t expect so much sell off although I expected some sell-off in the first two weeks of June. This brutal selling really have created some great opportunities even life time opportunities globally.

just curious "valuegrowth" - do you write these posts yourself? If yes - are you writing horoscopes as well? If not - this could be a business opportunity ...

[peat]

just curious "valuegrowth" - do you write these posts yourself? If yes - are you writing horoscopes as well? If not - this could be a business opportunity ...

a bit unnecessary BP. I've noticed your acerbic comments a few times , whats up with such a narky tone dude?

we all have different ways of expressing ourselves.

[bull....]

Going forward markets should rebound and could close month end strongly. It was a kind of market shakeup for all types of assets such as stocks, bonds and commodities throughout the world. From now onwards fundamentals should rule the market. Sell off has created some great opportunity in overreacted attractive stocks. In a way it was a much needed correction for overheated markets. Just like similar to sell-off, when market rebound strongly there will be plenty of reasons. European and USA markets could rebound by tomorrow itself. Even oversold Asian markets should rebound today. Some defensive stocks are getting limelight again. Some top analysts expect a rotation to defensives to occur in 2018. Sell-off has reduced asset inflation as well. I didn’t expect so much sell off although I expected some sell-off in the first two weeks of June. This brutal selling really have created some great opportunities even life time opportunities globally.

im in the opposite camp expecting weak mth end with volitilty increasing , just last night we had 400pt swings in dow futures , 40 handles in the s&p 500 but tend to agree with your early june

[Joshuatree]

"The performance of the Long Short Fund(LSF) has been impacted by the recent surge in ‘momentum’/’growth’ stocks and a continued drift in ‘value’ type stocks. Relative valuations of growth versus value stocks are at an historical extreme and we have positioned the portfolio to benefit as markets normalise."

So no flight to quality value stocks yet,Why not.? Stocks like FPH and APX ,RMD are reaching new highs almost daily. Can anyone join the dots with this seemingly disconnect or has the bull mkt got a way to go ?:mellow:

[Valuegrowth]

When compare with other markets, NZ market was resilient. What happened to Asian markets? It is normal to have sell-off in extended markets and markets which had long bull market. Even there was sell-off in weak markets as well. This type of selling and buying in bonds and stocks should continue in the future too. In a way it is a kind of a cycle. Volatility in currency, bond and stock market could become new normal. After all current situation has made some opportunity for some industries. Their business cost will come down during second half of this year. Still some growth stocks have demand. Value stocks should take the lead sooner than later followed by defensive stocks
.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-22/as-stocks-lose-2-1-trillion-asia-markets-bear-brunt-of-selloff

Asia Stocks Bear the Brunt of a Brutal $2.1 Trillion Selloff

[kiora]

I don't get it either JT.This is not in my experience.Most likely reason I can come up with is low interest rates & low inflation.Therefore LOOK OUT when they change.PS I like your POT.I sold out way too earlier.They do have risk of ship coming to grief in narrow entrance.

[bull....]

"The performance of the Long Short Fund(LSF) has been impacted by the recent surge in ‘momentum’/’growth’ stocks and a continued drift in ‘value’ type stocks. Relative valuations of growth versus value stocks are at an historical extreme and we have positioned the portfolio to benefit as markets normalise."

So no flight to quality value stocks yet,Why not.? Stocks like FPH and APX ,RMD are reaching new highs almost daily. Can anyone join the dots with this seemingly disconnect or has the bull mkt got a way to go ?:mellow:

people been positioned for value for years on that thesis and they still waiting. good measure is russell growth vrs russell value

[Miway]

I like POT but steer clear of it for that very reason. One mishap in the entrance and Port possibly closed for a year or more.

[Joshuatree]

Not going to happen but i asked for that as i do a fake news gag on it every now and then:)>. Wow their newish tugs are amazing 4400 hp!.

Arrival and Departure Window for Port of TaurangaThe Port of Tauranga provides a pilotage service for all vessels over 250 GRT unless the master holds a current pilot exemption certificate. Entry and exit to the Port is provided through an arrival and departure window.

The reason i came on here today is to suggest the trade war is just getting started because China is swiping USA tech

Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/22/technology/china-micron-chips-theft.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fb usiness&action=click&contentCollection=business&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront)T

[bull....]

yellow light for me again bro

[bull....]

just broke the s7P500 midpoint bro , see if we hold

[Valuegrowth]

There are fire sales as well. It look like global institutional players are getting ready for next most bullish sector after tech sector.

[bull....]

There are fire sales as well. It look like global institutional players are getting ready for next most bullish sector after tech sector.

oil sector doing very nice at the moment after a good opec meeting which looks good for everyone except maybe airlines. the s&P500 held at the midpoint yesterday and offered some nice handles for the pocket so is the level to watch now. next couple of weeks is blackout period so be careful as no support from that department

[winner69]

Interesting ...Death Crosses are good -

On average, for the time horizons tested, golden crosses show positive returns over the short term for most sectors. When comparing golden cross and death cross returns over the two different time horizons we see some interesting results. Our expectation of golden cross positive performance holds mostly true for our longer time horizon back to 1998. However, counterintuitively, it appears that death crosses also have positive returns and even outperform golden crosses in our current bull market. Rather than giving a signal to sell or short a stock, the death cross has been an indication to buy at a low price (and be rewarded with a stock price turnaround).

https://insight.factset.com/are-golden-and-death-crosses-a-good-bet?utm_campaign=Insight&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=64046482&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8cWrGm_X3TKCBC1zQ-X6wzlzo8SaxyErD6LHkmoYLoZOFUZNtThSMI3clGxCvxU9rkF1 7o8rBksdznlMskvyBsN7m4aw&_hsmi=64046482

[Raz]

Certainly wealth on the move...

[bull....]

hit the mid point again and held up 40 handles from the support again wicked moves , 600 pt turnaround from the lows for the dow volatilty rules just like we thought. how about the oil heading to new highs

[bull....]

500 pt turnaround from the high dow , sp again nearing the mid point things ramping up for major move i reckon

[bull....]

my google short is paying big divs now

[peat]

my google short is paying big divs now
I didnt think Google paid a dividend :p

[Valuegrowth]

We are seeing major tech and internet names sell off as well. The latest concern is China' slowing growth & growing risks of corporate bond defaults. These types of things were there in the past as well. They are not abnormal. In markets always there will be some concern and worry. Would intelligent investors miss when attractive quality companies become more attractive? Some analysts see certain discounted opportunities in sectors such as technology, consumer staples and financial. Currant sell –off has created opportunities in developing markets debts too. It seems new sectors which include overlooked ones could lead the market next.

[bull....]

end of quarter volatility tonight me thinks heading into big week next week

[Ggcc]

end of quarter volatility tonight me thinks heading into big week next week
It has been a volatile finish for the end of the week. Hopefully all green lights for a rise in the market next week

[couta1]

end of quarter volatility tonight me thinks heading into big week next week That's the one, big book squaring exercise going on today on many stocks.

[bull....]

That's the one, big book squaring exercise going on today on many stocks.

nice rally at the moment into quarter end , new highs for oil heading to saudi target of $80/ barrel

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/asia-stocks-to-gain-dollar-slips-with-treasuries-markets-wrap

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bitcoin-slumps-below-6000-to-november-lows.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/us-oil-near-3-12-yr-high-markets-remain-tight.html

[bull....]

lets get ready to rumble lol anyway big week this week

heres a good summary

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-01/asian-stocks-face-mixed-start-to-week-oil-drops-markets-wrap

already of to a ugly start across asia and us , eu futures dont look flash either ill be watching the mid point level again this week which held last week for signs of further weakness.

[Valuegrowth]

Steady markets in June in the Asia Pacific Region

New Zealand, Australia and frontier market Bangladesh

Steady commodity in June

Livestock cattle

Possible scenario in the Asian region: Some volatility and then the strong rebound

Overall new opportunities have created in Asia thanks to heavy sell-off (especially for intelligent investors and not for punters).Asia is the region for billions of people in the world. We can imagine what type of things that they will need. Sky is not going to fall. In stock market lifetime opportunities will appear during market sell-0ff.Cycle will follow.

[WayOverTheHill]

9782

If it helps, for the US market, I've been watching the US employment rate as a confirming indicator of a downturn.

Has anyone found something which can be used in a similar way in NZ?

Hopefully I've been able to embed the image successfully :-)

[bull....]

9782

If it helps, for the US market, I've been watching the US employment rate as a confirming indicator of a downturn.

Has anyone found something which can be used in a similar way in NZ?

Hopefully I've been able to embed the image successfully :-)

image works fine and yes employment is used as a leading indicator also widely used is the yield curve but im not sure if thats reliable in this current environment anyway heres a good article on the 2

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/06/01/recession-signals-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs/

As for nz i look at property as it plays such a big part in nz , also confidence and trade and also read this guys commentary

http://tonyalexander.co.nz/

[peat]

Has anyone found something which can be used in a similar way in NZ?


There is a trucking index which is a local version of watching the Fedex share price.
https://www.anz.co.nz/about-us/economic-markets-research/truckometer/

[bull....]

plenty of 4th of july fireworks on the us markets last night , nice rises. the market seems to be taking the first round of tarriffs in its stride , as they should as its pretty small no meaning full effect on anyone.
nasdaq and russell places to be at the moment others in a range. i heard brazil is buying more us soybeans cause there lower in price and then will sell them to china at a higher price which is the price they already sell theres to china at anyway so just goes to show ways around the tarriffs already with no detriment.
china tanking , nz and asx benefiting from money fleeing china market to safer havens guess china going down as they will lose the us trade affect there companies quicker.

watching us employment tonight and retailiation next week ?

i

[Valuegrowth]

Many have recently jumped to the conclusion that the recent sell-off on soya bean and other grain was all tariff related, but according to some analysts it is more to do with the ideal and excellent growing conditions seen across the US ag belt. It seems traders over reacted to the trade war similar to the past events. There is a good demand for defensive stocks. Shares of companies with large domestic sale in China,the USA and other countries could have more demand. Some exporters in China and the USA could hit but exporters in other countries will benefit. Among commodity, despite trade war soya bean gained lot yesterday. As I said there is an unusual behavior in the commodity market as well. In the meantime I heard Saudi has lowered August prices for light oil to Asia.

[bull....]

trade wars have been started .... very nice rally on the us markets last night to kick things off

[Joshuatree]

Expectations are that the USA business reporting season is going to be a healthy one.

[bull....]

Expectations are that the USA business reporting season is going to be a healthy one.

kick off later this week , guidance will be key

[Joshuatree]

This little snippet from craigs (thank you) is very bullish, i sure hope its on target, a lot of expectation there..

"The June quarter reporting season begins next week in the US, with a handful of financial heavyweights set to kick things off. Overall, it is expected to be another impressive reporting season, with markets expecting revenue growth of 8.8% and 20.0% earnings growth for the S&P 500. This would make for the second strongest quarter for earnings since 2010.
All 11 sectors are forecast to see an increase in earnings from a year earlier with energy, materials, telecommunications and technology expected to post the strongest growth rate"

[bull....]

reached the top of s&p500 range last night see what happens also heard trump looking at 200b announcement tarriffs on china? hitting the futures

[bull....]

is this the breakout to the upside on the s&p500 2800 was resistance from the 6mth range would imply a couple hundred points move we will see

[bull....]

jp morgon thinking we only stage 2 bull market, i like there thinking

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-19/jpmorgan-says-record-breaking-bull-market-could-run-until-2020

[BlackPeter]

Saw yesterday an expert claiming the bull might run through to 2024:

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/18/news/economy/larry-kudlow-economy-trump-recession/index.html

Obviously - this could be a clear sign for overconfidence in the market ... i.e. we are in the last phase of the bull.

I don't remember whether I've seen so far an analysis of how accurate all these predictions are. Obviously - even a broken clock is right twice a day and I expect that the annual bear / bull predictions reach a similar level of accuracy. If we count it as "correct" if the analyst gets the year and the direction right, and if we allow for an average bull cycle of 7 years and a bear cycle of 1 year +/- 6 months, than I'd expect that most experts get it roughly 79% right if they predict another bull year and roughly 21% right if they predict a bear year.

Looks like predicting bull years improves analysts track record ;); Not sure however how to assess analysts who correctly predicted 7 of the last 2 downturns :D;

From what I've seen so far - there are a handful of (non-lagging) indicators for an emerging bear (like interest rate inversion, unemployment numbers and similar) ... but none of them is perfect and none is able to look further than a handful of months ahead. Nobody can predict whether the bull keeps running for some more years to come.

[bull....]

s%p 500 holding above the breakout , touch wood new highs? hope no one owed facebook? savaged

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/26/facebook-on-pace-for-biggest-one-day-loss-in-value-for-any-company-sin.html

[Timesurfer]

One would imagine that Facebook has peaked in terms of users.

Both the changes that they keep making to try and squeeze a dollar from the punters and the younger generations who see Facebook as for old people tend to suggest it will eventually go the way of MySpace. Could be wrong, and it won't happen overnight.

On the other hand, if they rebrand quick enough they may gain enough of the Trademe/Ebay/Craigs List market share to remain relevant.

Then there is the news market. It will be interesting to see who takes control of that as newspapers die out and people look for a replacement. Will be a crowdsource replacement like Facebook, or will an online aggregator assume power. Do we want reliable news, tabloid news, or news supplied by those with the deepest pockets.

There are a number of powerplays to be made in the not too distant future in this space I would imagine.

[Bobdn]

Things look great across the NZX and ASX right now. Don't you just love a little lift on a Friday? Makes the weekend seem all the more sweeter.

[Joshuatree]

Yass from Black Monday to :t_up:Happy hour Friday

"sweet as tupelo honey,
an angel of the first degree"


Van Morrison - Tupelo Honey (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DbTIKHYwog)

[Valuegrowth]

Still extended stocks are rising but milk prices are dropping very badly.

[Joshuatree]

According to Trading Economics Global 1 year milk price has dropped re 12%.
Coffee is down 20% so the cafes and roasters here are doing well margin wise as 99.9% of drinkers are unaware the savings are not being passed on. My cafe says milk and labour are up .

Meanwhile USA is booming thanks to selfie trumpy:mellow:
Trump Claims Credit as the Economy Hits a High Note (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/business/economy/economy-gdp.html)

[ratkin]

One would imagine that Facebook has peaked in terms of users.



Just anecdotal but I would think it is falling, certainly in terms of medium to heavy users. Couple of years ago all my peeps were on there on a daily basis sharing their days events. Now hardly at all. Some gone to Twitter or snap chat or whatever, some have decided it not private enough and shut down their accounts, it become a bit old hat

[RupertBear]

A lot of red arrows today :(

[ratkin]

A lot of red arrows today :(

Blame John Key

[stones]

Blame John Key
No...no no no sync Jim (vicar of dibley)

[traineeinvestor]

A lot of red arrows today :(

I know it depends on why share prices are falling, but all else being equal, as a long term accumulator of equities, surely this is good news?

[Patient Panda]

One would imagine that Facebook has peaked in terms of users.

Both the changes that they keep making to try and squeeze a dollar from the punters and the younger generations who see Facebook as for old people tend to suggest it will eventually go the way of MySpace. Could be wrong, and it won't happen overnight.

On the other hand, if they rebrand quick enough they may gain enough of the Trademe/Ebay/Craigs List market share to remain relevant.

Then there is the news market. It will be interesting to see who takes control of that as newspapers die out and people look for a replacement. Will be a crowdsource replacement like Facebook, or will an online aggregator assume power. Do we want reliable news, tabloid news, or news supplied by those with the deepest pockets.

There are a number of powerplays to be made in the not too distant future in this space I would imagine.

yes Facebook quite stagnant for forseeable future but instagram ( also owned by fb) absolutely booming out of control.

one of the fastest growing platforms with huge potential.

[stones]

I know it depends on why share prices are falling, but all else being equal, as a long term accumulator of equities, surely this is good news?
Absolutely good news. You can't beat a stayer. A long term investor has more to gain and no headaches.

[bull....]

S&P500 is retracing from the top of the channel so not surprising. top was 2848 currently bottom 2750 up trending channel , fangs savaged not surprising either most of the nasdaq advance is due to the fang stcks so its good to see them de fanged for a while .. healthy.

nz50 consolidating but looking heavy, asx looking better for me at the moment been ever waiting it seems for it to make new all time highs.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

A lot of red arrows today :(

"I didn't even see the Indians ...."

[Valuegrowth]

Finally, there was a broad sell-off of technology stock. Big names are falling. After FB, Baidu, and Alibaba also having some sell-off.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/27/the-market-finally-may-be-ready-for-a-big-rotation.html?recirc=taboolainternal

The market finally may be ready for a big rotation

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-in-stocks-could-be-in-last-innings-as-bears-set-sights-on-strongest-sectors-2018-08-02

Bull market in stocks could be in ‘last innings’ as bears set sights on strongest sectors

[value_investor]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-in-stocks-could-be-in-last-innings-as-bears-set-sights-on-strongest-sectors-2018-08-02

Bull market in stocks could be in ‘last innings’ as bears set sights on strongest sectors

I'm not that sold on this, I feel as though we hear about this every year that the market has finally topped out and then it doesn't. Its been a very strong earnings season in the US, not sure what FB has to do with representing the whole market all of a sudden. I still remember the FB IPO at $36 being called overvalued because its a company with nothing behind it. Oh the short term thinking does funny things to your brain.

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.

Time in the market > Timing the market

[traineeinvestor]

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.

Time in the market > Timing the market

+1

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

I know several people who sold out of my local property market in 2011-3 and have sat on the sidelines paying escalating rents and watching prices continue to climb to the point where they can no longer afford to buy back in. I get a lot of "it can't last," "it's way out of touch with reality" and "it's going to be one hell of a crash when the bubble bursts" whenever we meet up - it started getting repetitive a long time ago. I'm sure that one day the market will go down, possibly by a lot just like it has historically, but it would have to be a return to great depression levels to have justified selling out so early.

[BobbyMorocco]

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.


Have they really lost out on a once in a lifetime gain? Or are they waiting for another (perhaps even better) opportunity to make their gains?

At some point the market will fall and it will rise again. It's likely it will happen several times over the period of a lifetime. Just because the past two years have been good does not mean it won't happen like that again.

If the market begins to roll over tomorrow and loses 30% of its value then once it reaches the bottom those people who have been on the sidelines will be in a very similar position to those that bought and held throughout it all. It's easy to proclaim that the buy and hold strategy is the best when everything is at all time highs.

If we have another GFC type event where approx 40-50% plus is wiped from the market (depending on which market you're looking at) then when it gets to the bottom those people who sat patiently and waited are actually better off than all of those that bought and held. Not to mention they surely would have had considerably less stress in their lives too.

There's a load of different ways to profit from the market, and people will use whatever strategy they think works best for them and their situation but to suggest that these people have missed out on once in a lifetime gains is way off the mark IMO. I believe that unless you're laying on your death bed then there's always another opportunity! :)

So value_investor what's your strategy? Are you going to take these "once in a lifetime gains" that you've accumulated over the past two years and cash them in now? Or do you plan on cashing them in later? Or perhaps never at all? How do you decide when to take profit and when to sit tight?

[traineeinvestor]

H
So value_investor what's your strategy? Are you going to take these "once in a lifetime gains" that you've accumulated over the past two years and cash them in now? Or do you plan on cashing them in later? Or perhaps never at all? How do you decide when to take profit and when to sit tight?

Most of the time I don't. Not speaking for anyone else, but I mostly focus on cash flows and expectations of longer term dividend/rental growth. It may not be a strategy for producing market-beating returns, but it pays the bills. Down turns are opportunities to top up the portfolio.

As you say, there are many ways to play the markets.

[bull....]

gotta love the us market its rocking , actually it seems everytime trump talks about china and tarriffs it goes up lol perverse eh. anyway seems to be near top of channel now s&p500 abot 10 handles

[BlackPeter]

gotta love the us market its rocking , actually it seems everytime trump talks about china and tarriffs it goes up lol perverse eh. anyway seems to be near top of channel now s&p500 abot 10 handles

Nearly feels like September 2007. Everything is great and only way prices can go is upwards. What can possible go wrong ;)?

[Joshuatree]

Dont think there is going to be any irrational exuberance this time though before the falls, just the dawning realisation that there is nothing left to prop the mkts up, not even fake news.

[bull....]

Nearly feels like September 2007. Everything is great and only way prices can go is upwards. What can possible go wrong ;)?

gotta consider earnings are propelling the market , even next years forward earnings dont look unreasonable at 17x for the market not high by traditional standards. also a trillion dollars of buybacks coming too.

thats what some people mis calculated was the strenght of earnings and they sold out way to early

[BlackPeter]

gotta consider earnings are propelling the market , even next years forward earnings dont look unreasonable at 17x for the market not high by traditional standards. also a trillion dollars of buybacks coming too.

thats what some people mis calculated was the strenght of earnings and they sold out way to early

Absolutely - predicting the (past) future is so much easier with the benefit of hindsight :p;

[arc]

An "emotional" talking-up of the American market...
Reminds me of the hormonal rush of physical activity a couple of months before lemmings.. do the lemming thing.

[bull....]

us market place to be nasdaq up a nice 15% this yr led by the fangs compare to nz 5%. nice etf on the nasdaq with unbelievable low fees park and ride lol hope some other lemmings are enjoying the ride. roll on 100k nasdaq haha one day maybe a

[jonu]

us market place to be nasdaq up a nice 15% this yr led by the fangs compare to nz 5%. nice etf on the nasdaq with unbelievable low fees park and ride lol hope some other lemmings are enjoying the ride. roll on 100k nasdaq haha one day maybe a

Bull.... you are starting to sound scarily like Shrewd Crude. Maybe it really is time to get out.

[bull....]

Bull.... you are starting to sound scarily like Shrewd Crude. Maybe it really is time to get out.

lol shrewd can certainly spin it.
just trying to cheer myself up with some good news bad day at the office today in aus sold my tah, sto yesterday to soon and day traded ecx for peanuts yesterday when i should have held overnight so have to cheer one self up with something thats going well.

[Beagle]

Got the annual report today. Never had one just stapled in the top left corner before, (not bound up nicely). Suppose as long as its saving the company a few pennies that's okay.
Might burn it for heating after reading it...its getting a little cold in the tent. Big crossing today at just $3.01 proves the current price is not just some aberration of lack of depth between buyers and sellers. But no worries, now that Cindy is back and telling us she is going to confront the lack of business confidence head on we're all good.
Suppose she thinks flashing her pearly white's and splashing a few photo's of her new baby around the woman's magazines and we'll all be good and start spending again.
Noticed AHG, (Large vehicle retailer with widespread operations across multiple brands in Australia and New Zealand) in Aussie tanking in recent months too. Maybe this lack of confidence really is starting to bite ? Maybe a PE of 10 is all we're good for while Cindy and her merry band of "experts" leads us down into Alice in wonderland territory is all we're good for, for the foreseeable future ?
Gosh that would sheet the target price back down to $3.10-$3.20
Disc: Glad I sold half at $3.15 after it failed to kick on after the national rah rah sessions, (opps I meant road show sessions).
(Disc: Hound has his cynical hat on today in case anyone is wondering)

[couta1]

Got the annual report today. Never had one just stapled in the top left corner before, (not bound up nicely). Suppose as long as its saving the company a few pennies that's okay.
Might burn it for heating after reading it...its getting a little cold in the tent. Big crossing today at just $3.01 proves the current price is not just some aberration of lack of depth between buyers and sellers. But no worries, now that Cindy is back and telling us she is going to confront the lack of business confidence head on we're all good.
Suppose she thinks flashing her pearly white's and splashing a few photo's of her new baby around the woman's magazines and we'll all be good and start spending again.
Noticed AHG, (Large vehicle retailer with widespread operations across multiple brands in Australia and New Zealand) in Aussie tanking in recent months too. Maybe this lack of confidence really is starting to bite ? Maybe a PE of 10 is all we're good for while Cindy and her merry band of "experts" leads us down into Alice in wonderland territory is all we're good for, for the foreseeable future ?
Gosh that would sheet the target price back down to $3.10-$3.20
Disc: Glad I sold half at $3.15 after it failed to kick on after the national rah rah sessions, (opps I meant road show sessions).
(Disc: Hound has his cynical hat on today in case anyone is wondering) Stop worrying Beagle and get back in the driver's seat, TRA is just like HLG was a year or so ago, bit unloved yet building momentum behind the scenes and ticking the right boxes. Have been adding since $3.13 and going long on this one. Let's do this mate.

[Joshuatree]

Gloomy not black , slipped onto the wrong thread guys? You are talking about Turners i take it. To cheer you up look at Big Brother the $14 Carsales .com ASX ,CAR, something for TRA to really aspire to.

[RupertBear]

Got the annual report today. Never had one just stapled in the top left corner before, (not bound up nicely). Suppose as long as its saving the company a few pennies that's okay.
Might burn it for heating after reading it...its getting a little cold in the tent. Big crossing today at just $3.01 proves the current price is not just some aberration of lack of depth between buyers and sellers. But no worries, now that Cindy is back and telling us she is going to confront the lack of business confidence head on we're all good.
Suppose she thinks flashing her pearly white's and splashing a few photo's of her new baby around the woman's magazines and we'll all be good and start spending again.
Noticed AHG, (Large vehicle retailer with widespread operations across multiple brands in Australia and New Zealand) in Aussie tanking in recent months too. Maybe this lack of confidence really is starting to bite ? Maybe a PE of 10 is all we're good for while Cindy and her merry band of "experts" leads us down into Alice in wonderland territory is all we're good for, for the foreseeable future ?
Gosh that would sheet the target price back down to $3.10-$3.20
Disc: Glad I sold half at $3.15 after it failed to kick on after the national rah rah sessions, (opps I meant road show sessions).
(Disc: Hound has his cynical hat on today in case anyone is wondering)

Not unhappy that I sold out of TRA at $3.13 Mr Beagle, trust Couta to be buying up large ;)

[couta1]

Not unhappy that I sold out of TRA at $3.13 Mr Beagle, trust Couta to be buying up large ;) Be Greedy when others are Fearful young bear especially on a black Monday or any black day for that matter.

[bull....]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/08/china-announces-25percent-tariffs-on-16-billion-worth-of-us-goods-including.html

holding up reasonably well considering latest tarriff tit for tat although we are at near top of channel

china slowing?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-08/china-car-sales-drop-accelerates-on-slowing-economy-trade-war

[bull....]

rolled over from the top of channel , looks like turkey upset trump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-markets-political-concerns-keep-investors-on-edge.html

wonder if phil goff would ban trump speaking in auckland? off topic

[winner69]

rolled over from the top of channel , looks like turkey upset trump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-markets-political-concerns-keep-investors-on-edge.html

wonder if phil goff would ban trump speaking in auckland? off topic

"Yesterday, they blamed tariffs - today they'll blame Turkey... Whatever you do, don't blame The Cycle," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

[Valuegrowth]

Don’t blame the cycle

Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.

Eg: NZD

[Patient Panda]

Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.

Eg: NZD

Its not a correction. Orr could just have easily tightened the OCR and we wouldn’t be seeing this weakening to remotely close to this extent.

[Valuegrowth]

Some say dovish RBNZ and concerns over European bank exposure to Turkey sent NZD/USD lower. Clearly, there was some weakness for NZD. Only thing is petrol prices will go up unless oil drop significantly. On the other hand export sector will benefit. I heard RBNZ is bullish on the economy but left rates at 1.75% until end of 2020.

[stoploss]

Its not a correction. Orr could just have easily tightened the OCR and we wouldn’t be seeing this weakening to remotely close to this extent.
How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

[winner69]

How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary

[stoploss]

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary
As I said Bollard tried that first Western economy to lift rates post GFC from memory ...only to turn around and cut ..
With the Aussie property market coming off the boil and looking a bit suspect , Auckland flat I think we have time on our side ... as indicated by the statement on Thursday .
With the current business confidence do you think it’s prudent to get ahead of the curve that might not eventuate ?

[Baa_Baa]

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary

I think you're way ahead of the curve, do you have some other reason for despising the new RB Govna? Woulda coulda shoulda, it's all speculation, but maybe, might, could be? ... let it unfold as it will.

[Patient Panda]

How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.

Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.

They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.

Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.

[Bobdn]

First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.

Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.

They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.

Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.

Yes, inflation is raging at the moment. Throw in accommodation and the absolute biggest drag on the economy, local authority expenditure and the resultant property taxation and other charges, and you'd have a much much bigger inflation rate. My electricity bill has more or less stayed the same over the last 10 years, maybe even reduced a little. My phone and internet bill is as cheap as chips. My local authority rates, however, go up and up and up, over 5% this year alone. Amazing. By hey, inflation is just 1%! LOL

[Jerry]

I agree that the quoted inflation rate is laughable. However my electricity rate with Trustpower has gone up by 35% since 2010. That's not my bill, but the rate they charge. As for petrol I have no record of the price at the pump last time the price per barrel was at present rates, but it sure as hell wasn't $2.35 per litre. Bring on the cheap EVs and solar roof.

[winner69]

Annual June 2018 ”Tradables” component of CPI is +O.1% while “non-Tradables” was +2.5%

(Geek note:Tradables are goods and services that are imported or are in competition with foreign goods and services, either in domestic or foreign markets. Non-tradables are goods and services that do not face foreign competition)


I reckon that tradables bit is going to increase quite a lot in the next few months and the non-tradables won’t get less .......net impact is?

[Bobdn]

I agree that the quoted inflation rate is laughable. However my electricity rate with Trustpower has gone up by 35% since 2010. That's not my bill, but the rate they charge. As for petrol I have no record of the price at the pump last time the price per barrel was at present rates, but it sure as hell wasn't $2.35 per litre. Bring on the cheap EVs and solar roof.

I installed gas hot water and heating in 2007 so while my personal bill is lower through substitution, I take your point that overall inflation is higher. Unfortunately there is no way I can substitute out of my local authority rates. I'm seriously considering moving. I'll be challenging my property value next year which might give me some respite.

[winner69]

Good ol Jared

Jared Dillian (@dailydirtnap)
12/08/18, 10:27 AM
At 26, I thought my professor was wrong to dismiss technical analysis.

At 30, I was learning the basics of technical analysis.

At 34, I was dependent on technical analysis.

At 39, I found I could do without technical analysis.

At 44, I'm pretty sure my professor was right.

[bull....]

2826 - 2842

oil breaking down 64 next stop ?

[bull....]

lira tanking again , the range gone on the s&p too down we go

[bull....]

the turks are selling at 7 lol

[arc]

The Turkish problem has the potential to start a domino effect. Quite a few European Banks are exposed.

9851

They are not alone in the, tottering on the edge, state.

[BlackPeter]

Absolutely ... I guess Germany can probably compensate for another $16 b ... (hopefully its not Deutsche Bank), but particularly with Spain I am not so sure.

[bull....]

turkey problems stem from debt binge over the years was always going to happen , trump just decided to put his foot on edorans head to get what he wants and the pressure piles on. cant see it as a big deal myself blow over when turkey economy crashes or turkey gives up to trump.

[BlackPeter]

turkey problems stem from debt binge over the years was always going to happen , trump just decided to put his foot on edorans head to get what he wants and the pressure piles on. cant see it as a big deal myself blow over when turkey economy crashes or turkey gives up to trump.

Sure - their problems are home made ... Trump is just the a**e he always is and kicking his opponents while they are on the ground. Nothing new - that's what bullies do.

You might well be right that the Turkey crisis doesn't end up as the detonator for the next financial crisis - or you might be wrong.

It is just ... if you know that the world economy has a lot of accumulated fuel just waiting for the spark to ignite it - would anybody with a gram of grey matter in the head run around and play with his lighter instead of trying to safely reduce the fuel supply?

[bull....]

2826 - 2842 still in play

better not say anything bad about turkey apparently they are investigating social media lol anyway we got 7 right

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/turkey-to-investigate-social-media-accounts-bad-mouthing-the-lira.html

[Valuegrowth]

Will property investors sell houses and buy stocks?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/106297829/labours-bill-to-curb-foreigners-buying-new-zealand-houses-becomes-law

[traineeinvestor]

Will property investors sell houses and buy stocks?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/106297829/labours-bill-to-curb-foreigners-buying-new-zealand-houses-becomes-law

As an expat Kiwi who has now been banned from buying almost all forms of property in my own country, current thinking is to not invest any more money in NZ and look elsewhere – somewhere that actually wants overseas investment dollars.

[bull....]

sea of red at the moment , commodities are getting smashed

[kiora]

sea of red at the moment , commodities are getting smashed

Except live cattle & hogs.Even gold dropping.
Go figure!
A big clean out coming up folks?Holding on to my pants.

[dobby41]

As an expat Kiwi who has now been banned from buying almost all forms of property in my own country, current thinking is to not invest any more money in NZ and look elsewhere – somewhere that actually wants overseas investment dollars.

Have you mis-read the bill?
As a passport holding Kiwi I would have thought that you could still buy property in your home country.
Peter Theil can so why can't you?

[traineeinvestor]

Have you mis-read the bill?
As a passport holding Kiwi I would have thought that you could still buy property in your home country.
Peter Theil can so why can't you?

I wish I was misreading it.

By designating all residential property as sensitive land, only people who are ordinarily resident in NZ (extracted definition below) can purchase without going through an approval process (which has now been made more difficult and therefore time consuming and expensive). Like most expats I am not ordinarily resident in NZ, so I get lumped in with the foreigners.

The press coverage mentions that people from Australia and Singapore are exempt because of trade agreements. If that is correct it creates the bizarre situation that non-NZ citizens from these countries can purchase residential property but NZ citizens living elsewhere cannot.

In this Act, a person is ordinarily resident in New Zealand,—
(a)
for the purpose of an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, for the purposes of a transaction that will result in an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, and related matters, if the person—(i)
holds a residence class visa granted under the Immigration Act 2009; and

(ii)
has been residing in New Zealand for at least the immediately preceding 12 months; and

(iia)
is tax resident in New Zealand; and

(iii)
has been present in New Zealand for 183 days or more in total in the immediately preceding 12 months (counting presence in New Zealand for part of a day as a presence for a whole day):

[winner69]

I wish I was misreading it.

By designating all residential property as sensitive land, only people who are ordinarily resident in NZ (extracted definition below) can purchase without going through an approval process (which has now been made more difficult and therefore time consuming and expensive). Like most expats I am not ordinarily resident in NZ, so I get lumped in with the foreigners.

The press coverage mentions that people from Australia and Singapore are exempt because of trade agreements. If that is correct it creates the bizarre situation that non-NZ citizens from these countries can purchase residential property but NZ citizens living elsewhere cannot.

In this Act, a person is ordinarily resident in New Zealand,—
(a)
for the purpose of an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, for the purposes of a transaction that will result in an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, and related matters, if the person—(i)
holds a residence class visa granted under the Immigration Act 2009; and

(ii)
has been residing in New Zealand for at least the immediately preceding 12 months; and

(iia)
is tax resident in New Zealand; and

(iii)
has been present in New Zealand for 183 days or more in total in the immediately preceding 12 months (counting presence in New Zealand for part of a day as a presence for a whole day):




Doesn’t the main bill say all this does not apply to NZ Citizens ...that hadn’t changed in the Amendment

[Blue Skies]

As an expat Kiwi who has now been banned from buying almost all forms of property in my own country, current thinking is to not invest any more money in NZ and look elsewhere – somewhere that actually wants overseas investment dollars.

Unfortunately too many foreigners just parking their money in NZ real estate. There's neighbourhoods in AKL you can drive around with dozens of empty houses, uncut lawns etc owned by foreigners who have never set foot in the country. Doesn't make for healthy vibrant safe communities which should be a core precept of public policy. Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors, which is now having a flow on effect to rest of the country. NZ housing debt to overseas owned banks is staggering, in the absence of capital gains tax, something needed to be done.

[freddagg]

I wish I was misreading it.

By designating all residential property as sensitive land, only people who are ordinarily resident in NZ (extracted definition below) can purchase without going through an approval process (which has now been made more difficult and therefore time consuming and expensive). Like most expats I am not ordinarily resident in NZ, so I get lumped in with the foreigners.

The press coverage mentions that people from Australia and Singapore are exempt because of trade agreements. If that is correct it creates the bizarre situation that non-NZ citizens from these countries can purchase residential property but NZ citizens living elsewhere cannot.

In this Act, a person is ordinarily resident in New Zealand,—
(a)


for the purpose of an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, for the purposes of a transaction that will result in an overseas investment in sensitive land where the relevant land is or includes residential land, and related matters, if the person—(i)


holds a residence class visa granted under the Immigration Act 2009; and

(ii)


has been residing in New Zealand for at least the immediately preceding 12 months; and

(iia)


is tax resident in New Zealand; and

(iii)


has been present in New Zealand for 183 days or more in total in the immediately preceding 12 months (counting presence in New Zealand for part of a day as a presence for a whole day):




On that definition almost no one would qualify.
I am a NZ born citizen so I don"t have a "residence class visa" so I would fail at a(i)

[dobby41]

Doesn’t the main bill say all this does not apply to NZ Citizens ...that hadn’t changed in the Amendment

I think that's the key - it is an amendment to the regulations, not the regulations themselves.

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately too many foreigners just parking their money in NZ real estate. There's neighbourhoods in AKL you can drive around with dozens of empty houses, uncut lawns etc owned by foreigners who have never set foot in the country. Doesn't make for healthy vibrant safe communities which should be a core precept of public policy. Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors, which is now having a flow on effect to rest of the country. NZ housing debt to overseas owned banks is staggering, in the absence of capital gains tax, something needed to be done.

Do you have any credible source for your claim "around 20% AKL sales to foreign speculators / investors"?

This number is not consistent with the stats I have seen and I assume just made up by some xenophobic crowd like Mr "Chinese sounding names".

[Blue Skies]

Do you have any credible source for your claim "around 20% AKL sales to foreign speculators / investors"?

This number is not consistent with the stats I have seen and I assume just made up by some xenophobic crowd like Mr "Chinese sounding names".


Statistics NZ is the source, as quoted in a number of diff media including Interest.co.nz.

First 3 months of 2018, 1 in 5 houses sold in Waitemata Ward (Central Auckland, which includes Auckland CBD, Parnell, Grafton, Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Westmere, Grey Lynn, & Waiheke,) were to overseas buyers. It's lower in other areas e.g. 1 in 7 houses in Western North Shore ( Beach Haven, Glenfield, Northcote, Birkenhead) so concentrated in some areas, but still too high & this 3% overall nationally figure which gets quoted is misleading & implies there isn't a problem when clearly there is in some areas where there is already a housing shortage.

Appreciate for some there may be a degree of xenophobia , but that shouldn't cloud the fact that most of us welcome diversity & new immigrants, it's the rampant speculation on housing stock by overseas buyers which is shutting young families & esp Maori out of owning their own homes & the downstream consequences of that, which I worry about.

[Joshuatree]

Great post and verification. Removing 3% of buyers nationally makes a huge difference.

[silu]

Do you have any credible source for your claim "around 20% AKL sales to foreign speculators / investors"?

This number is not consistent with the stats I have seen and I assume just made up by some xenophobic crowd like Mr "Chinese sounding names".

I have come to the understanding that I as a Permanent Resident have been included as a foreign buyer in the ASB stats that came out a few weeks ago. Been here 20+ years uninterrupted.

[BlackPeter]

Statistics NZ is the source, as quoted in a number of diff media including Interest.co.nz.

First 3 months of 2018, 1 in 5 houses sold in Waitemata Ward (Central Auckland, which includes Auckland CBD, Parnell, Grafton, Herne Bay, Ponsonby, Westmere, Grey Lynn, & Waiheke,) were to overseas buyers. It's lower in other areas e.g. 1 in 7 houses in Western North Shore ( Beach Haven, Glenfield, Northcote, Birkenhead) so concentrated in some areas, but still too high & this 3% overall nationally figure which gets quoted is misleading & implies there isn't a problem when clearly there is in some areas where there is already a housing shortage.

Appreciate for some there may be a degree of xenophobia , but that shouldn't cloud the fact that most of us welcome diversity & new immigrants, it's the rampant speculation on housing stock by overseas buyers which is shutting young families & esp Maori out of owning their own homes & the downstream consequences of that, which I worry about.

I think your numbers are wrong. Here is the publication from statistics NZ for the relevant quarter:

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/just-over-3-percent-of-home-transfers-go-to-overseas-buyers

[traineeinvestor]

On that definition almost no one would qualify.
I am a NZ born citizen so I don"t have a "residence class visa" so I would fail at a(i)

From OneRoof: "Existing homes will no longer be available non-residents other than those from Australia and Singapore due to existing free-trade deals."

[blackcap]

From OneRoof: "Existing homes will no longer be available non-residents other than those from Australia and Singapore due to existing free-trade deals."

What? That means I cannot purchase a property in NZ? have lived here for 35 years plus and have permanent residency. Surely this is an error somewhere as there are bound to be plentiful like me who came to NZ years ago and have never changed to being a citizen?

[traineeinvestor]

What? That means I cannot purchase a property in NZ? have lived here for 35 years plus and have permanent residency. Surely this is an error somewhere as there are bound to be plentiful like me who came to NZ years ago and have never changed to being a citizen?

I have not looked into the position of people who are NZ permanent residents but not NZ citizens but understand that they are exempted provided they meet a few criteria including being tax domiciled in NZ.

I'm getting conflicting feedback from various people so have probably reached the point where I should get clarification from a lawyer who practises in this area.

[Bjauck]

What? That means I cannot purchase a property in NZ? have lived here for 35 years plus and have permanent residency. Surely this is an error somewhere as there are bound to be plentiful like me who came to NZ years ago and have never changed to being a citizen?
Maybe you will need to take the matter up with your country’s Embassy or High Commision.

[Blue Skies]

I think your numbers are wrong. Here is the publication from statistics NZ for the relevant quarter:

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/just-over-3-percent-of-home-transfers-go-to-overseas-buyers


Sorry, why is it wrong? It states about half way down, 'the proportion of overseas home buyers varies across Auckland. For example it was 1.7% in Franklin and 19% in the inner city (Waitemeta) in the March quarter'.

If you're correcting me on ratio being 19 rather than 20% or not being across the whole of Auckland, fair comment, but 2 points.

1) whatever the exact figures, that kind of pressure at one extreme end of the market eventually has impacts across the whole market (maybe not Stewart Island ),

and 2) as quoted in Interest.co.nz ASB data for the same period says the actual number of homes sold to foreign buyers in the year to March 2018 is likely between 11% & 21% nationally, not the 3% reported by Stats NZ.

However, regardless of the precise figures, certainly in many (but not all) parts of central Auckland the evidence of increasing foreign buyers over last several years has been Compelling with a capital C for anyone selling or buying, going to auctions, looking at overseas websites promoting NZ property for speculative purposes, talking quietly to agents.

Anyway it looks like it's all going to turn to custard, correction on the cards esp if Simon keeps talking down the economy!

[dobby41]

Sorry, why is it wrong? It states about half way down, 'the proportion of overseas home buyers varies across Auckland. For example it was 1.7% in Franklin and 19% in the inner city (Waitemeta) in the March quarter'.

You must work for the media - selective stats.
You said Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors where as it should have been
Until recently around 20% AKL sales, in some areas, were to foreign speculators/investors

[Blue Skies]

You must work for the media - selective stats.
You said Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors where as it should have been
Until recently around 20% AKL sales, in some areas, were to foreign speculators/investors


Well spotted & appreciate your robust highlighting of that, but you may have been missed subsequent post 4466 where I provided the source & more specific detail.
You'll see that is exactly what I said, with examples.

You're quite right of course, I should not have been so reckless in the first post. Apologies to all.

[Bjauck]

You must work for the media - selective stats.
You said Until recently around 20% AKL sales were to foreign speculators/investors where as it should have been
Until recently around 20% AKL sales, in some areas, were to foreign speculators/investors

An anecdotal snapshot:
Changing face of Auckland: I live in a road with 10 properties in semi-rural Manukau. It is probably in an area statistically that does not have many foreign sales. When I moved in twenty years ago there were no ethnic Asian owners. All properties were owner occupied. Now four of the properties have ethnic Asian owners. Several of the Asian owners are out of the country for about half the year. Several properties are now rented out.

Seven of the properties now have penitentiary-like electric gates - none had them 20 years ago. There are three original owners remaining - a Dutch origin family and two NZ pakeha families. It’s still a great place to live and all the neighbours are good.

[kiwico]

What? That means I cannot purchase a property in NZ? have lived here for 35 years plus and have permanent residency. Surely this is an error somewhere as there are bound to be plentiful like me who came to NZ years ago and have never changed to being a citizen?

With permanent residency you will be an NZ resident just not an NZ citizen. Not even COL (I assuming here) would be stupid enough to change that. I understand NZ permanent residents get almost everything NZ citizens get other than to be an MP and presumably work visa-free in Oz.

[Patient Panda]

With permanent residency you will be an NZ resident just not an NZ citizen. Not even COL (I assuming here) would be stupid enough to change that. I understand NZ permanent residents get almost everything NZ citizens get other than to be an MP and presumably work visa-free in Oz.


I believe permanent residents do get to work visa free in aus, almost sure of it.

[blackcap]

With permanent residency you will be an NZ resident just not an NZ citizen. Not even COL (I assuming here) would be stupid enough to change that. I understand NZ permanent residents get almost everything NZ citizens get other than to be an MP and presumably work visa-free in Oz.

Cheers, that is how I understood it too.

[bull....]

This bull market is about to become historic and may have even more room to run

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/this-could-be-the-longest-bull-market-in-stocks-ever-and-it-still-has-.html

[Valuegrowth]

In my view there could be demand for new stocks and overlooked stocks. Smart money was flowing into those types of stocks over the last month.More surprisingly gold is no longer a safe haven. It also dropped along with base metals. The precious metals normally go up in times of investor panic, but not this week.Investors pulled the most money from technology stocks since February's sell-off. Financials stocks also suffered big outflows.

[value_investor]

This bull market is about to become historic and may have even more room to run

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/this-could-be-the-longest-bull-market-in-stocks-ever-and-it-still-has-.html


I think the Americans have borrowed from their future to inject into the present in the form of the corporate tax cut. The conversation should be more on the huge rise in debt in this short term period and how growth will not compensate for it unless they can grow GDP at 5-6%. It really puts the whole thing on a more precarious position going forward now, because a slow down would be exponentially worse for the US.

I take all the articles with a grain of salt from any financial publications that stand to make a profit. Keep in mind that they make their money too in times of chaos. Ratings are generally higher during bear markets and of course one off events.

[janner]

In my view there could be demand for new stocks and overlooked stocks. [/COLOR]

Overlooked stocks .. Maybe... New Stocks ??? From where ???.

[janner]

I think the Americans have borrowed from their future to inject into the present in the form of the corporate tax cut. The conversation should be more on the huge rise in debt in this short term.

All borrowings are from the future ??..

The question has to be... Is there a future if we keep borrowing ??

[BlackPeter]

All borrowings are from the future ??..

The question has to be... Is there a future if we keep borrowing ??

There always will be a future ... it just may look bleak and we may or may not be part of it ;);

But yes, it is getting more and more difficult to think about credible narratives with happy ending of how humanity can get rid of the debt mountains many countries and individuals are piling up. Obviously - idiots like Trump and Erdogan are making it worse trying to borrow themselves out of the indebtedness, but haven't yet seen a working alternative concept other than old fashioned "work hard and save" - and this is clearly not popular in populist times and might be for many countries already too late anyway.

[bull....]

wow briefly touched all time high on the 500 and the other big news of the day jp morgan offering free stock trades on its app

[winner69]

Here’s a cool chart with a bog animation

https://twitter.com/dollarsanddata/status/1032251550209650688

[bull....]

reading and listening to media saying this is the longest bull market in history ? i dont think we are there yet as the s&p 500 hasnt closed above its late jan high

[dobby41]

reading and listening to media saying this is the longest bull market in history ? i dont think we are there yet as the s&p 500 hasnt closed above its late jan high

Obviously if this is the second longest there is a longer one.
If this is the longest now it has happened before and the sky didn't fall.

[JBmurc]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIELN8C-7bQ

worth a watch exact same is happening here in NZ and around the world

[peat]

If this is the longest now it has happened before and the sky didn't fall.

Um, no.
If this is the longest then it hasn't happened before. Hence some nervousness might be reasonable?

However there's also a theory that new highs are bullish.

[janner]

Um, no.
If this is the longest then it hasn't happened before. Hence some nervousness might be reasonable?

However there's also a theory that new highs are bullish.

Um. Um.. ???.. Both up the same creek !!.. Armed with paddles.. Up !!.. or .. Down ????..

[blackcap]

Dow breaks through 26k, S&P at 2894! Big Bulls bulling.

[bull....]

1 trillion in buy backs , earnings up 20% , pe ratio falling all the time , trade deals happening .... still the most hated bull market in history

althought i see the 500 is at the top of the channel again, see what happens

[Baa_Baa]

1 trillion in buy backs , earnings up 20% , pe ratio falling all the time , trade deals happening .... still the most hated bull market in history

althought i see the 500 is at the top of the channel again, see what happens

When it's all too good to be true and the shoe shine boys and taxi drivers are talking their book then eyes on for the exit. A great time to sell some into strength. Unload on the reversal, when it comes. Caveat emptor.

[kiora]

When it's all too good to be true and the shoe shine boys and taxi drivers are talking their book then eyes on for the exit. A great time to sell some into strength. Unload on the reversal, when it comes. Caveat emptor.

Good advice BB.When nothing can go wrong,it will Caveat emptor

[blackcap]

2900 S&P has broken through, Dow and Nasdaq up again... boom times.

[bull....]

us analysts targets are still 3000 - 3200 for the s&p500 this end of year

[bull....]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/brutal-selloff-in-argentina-turkey-engulfs-emerging-market-peers?srnd=premium-asia

60% interest rates in argentina .... tempting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/trump-said-to-back-200-billion-china-tariffs-early-as-next-week?srnd=premium-asia

buffett still buying

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/warren-buffett-says-he-bought-just-a-little-more-apple-recently.html

[iceman]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/brutal-selloff-in-argentina-turkey-engulfs-emerging-market-peers?srnd=premium-asia

60% interest rates in argentina .... tempting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-30/trump-said-to-back-200-billion-china-tariffs-early-as-next-week?srnd=premium-asia

buffett still buying

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/warren-buffett-says-he-bought-just-a-little-more-apple-recently.html

Don't be tempted. I've just been to a bank over here (Argentina)and they've all run out of USD. They were advertising 1 months fixed deposit with 35% interest pa. Supermarkets closing down for a few days as they don' t know what to sell their goods for in order to have enough cash to restock at unknown prices. Many over here have mortgages in USD or tied to USD and inflation. One of my colleagues just told me his mortgage has gone up 25% in the last 2 days. Terrible situation and people are in great panic.

[dobby41]

60% interest rates in argentina .... tempting

Would be in local currency so devaluation would kill you.