Black Monday

[value_investor]

The DJIA is still up about 700-800 points from 3 months ago so we aren't really down that much. Just goes to show how over-extended we were before.

This will be the first correction for some people I think hence the fear, as I said before when stocks go up for a extended period of time, generally people start believing stocks will always go up. Same for the downside.

[Joshuatree]

Now below 1000. largest intraday point drop in history.

[Valuegrowth]

For me still it is too early to estimate. It could fall at least 10%. If DOW drops more than 5% we should see big selling in Asian and pacific stocks as well. However, overlooked markets may have some support where there is a value. For example even today at this moment some small markets in American region such as Venezuela, Panama,Jamaica and Bermuda standing out from the rest. They have some bullish trend.

[blackcap]

Now below 1000. largest intraday point drop in history.

Maybe, but if expressed in % terms would be less hyperbolic.

However... it was 1600 points which even in % terms is a heck of a lot. Did not see that it had dropped that much....

Could be interesting to see what happens in Australia today now that NZ has a holiday..

[skid]

Im hearing ''healthy correction'' and ''borrowing money'' in the same breath......be careful out there guys

[Joshuatree]

good advice Skid .you've been waiting years for this but at what opportunity cost, too early to tell i guess.

[Ggcc]

Im hearing ''healthy correction'' and ''borrowing money'' in the same breath......be careful out there guys
I was always told don’t borrow money to buy shares!!! That was the cause of the crash in 87. There is no such thing as certainty....... only death is certain. In saying that I could have made a fortune with borrowed money hahaha

[couta1]

I was always told don’t borrow money to buy shares!!! That was the cause of the crash in 87. There is no such thing as certainty....... only death is certain. In saying that I could have made a fortune with borrowed money hahaha I used to think like that but changed my mind a few years ago. I now consider it advantageous, and so run around 15% of my portfolio total on borrowed money on an interest only loan against our house. The interest is tax deductible as it produces income ,and im still working so no problems paying the interest even if the market turns to custard. PS-Nice to hear from you again Skid.

[bull....]

over 3% fall aus by the look for today , us futures for tomorrow are already showing another fall at this stage over 300 down at the moment , not surprising as margin calls will be made

another fall in us tonight will make for a very ugly nz day wednesday ................ with such poor liquidity in nzx there be very few buyers i reckon and with the silly nzx trading rule of not being able to sell at any price will make it worse.

[winner69]

Volume seemed to pick up as the US markets slumped further in the afternoon (from looking at the chart)

They say that’s not good

Hope there’s not a rush out of ETFs .....that’ll only increase the selling

[winner69]

Did the Fed step in about 3pm when the DOW plunged to 24,000 — the Plunge Protection Team

Or don’t they do things like that now?

[blackcap]

Did the Fed step in about 3pm when the DOW plunged to 24,000 — the Plunge Protection Team

Or don’t they do things like that now?

They do, at 7% drop, but the Dow only dropped about 5% so they did not hit it according to the NYSE head dude on CNBC.

[Nasi Goreng]

I haven’t been following the news channels so not sure if this has been discussed but from my sums, it looks like the Dow hit a correction of 10% from recent highs in the midst of the capitulation moment.

I think that’s quite significant as it had supposedly been over 900 days since the last correction?

Might help us find a bottom or mean nothing at all.

[Joshuatree]

Amazing 500 point shifts in minutes today, mechanical bot manipulation?

[fish]

its a 1000 now tomorrow could be bad as well cause your get margin calls

LOL
I would extend some mortgages or realise assets before taking margin calls-not that I would ever let myself get near that possibility.
I am looking forward to some cheap buys
The more panic and irrationality the better the opportunity

[bull....]

Amazing 500 point shifts in minutes today, mechanical bot manipulation?

yea was amazing , i was locked out from trading when it was melting 1000 pts in 5mins , was very irate lol obviously market was moving to fast for market makers

[flyer]

good way to spend Waitangi day - watching the closing bell on channel 91. Going to be a rough day on Asian Markets. Maybe lucky we are close today to see what happens in the next 24hrs although futures look negative again. I'm guessing a 10% correction on the Dow from its high last week.

[bull....]

LOL
I would extend some mortgages or realise assets before taking margin calls-not that I would ever let myself get near that possibility.
I am looking forward to some cheap buys
The more panic and irrationality the better the opportunity

be panic in nz for sure have a read of this

https://www.nzx.com/files/static/cms-documents/Proposed%20Trading%20Conduct%20Guidance%20Note.pdf

orderly markets conduct rules for brokers ...... the silliest rule on orderly markets ever written ......... public will be front rrun by everyone following this rule

[fish]

be panic in nz for sure have a read of this

https://www.nzx.com/files/static/cms-documents/Proposed%20Trading%20Conduct%20Guidance%20Note.pdf

orderly markets conduct rules for brokers ...... the silliest rule on orderly markets ever written ......... public will be front rrun by everyone following this rule

just skim read it-isnt it just guidance?
I will consider buying at close tomorrow but dont want to participate in the morning scramble.
Besides i am working in the morning so will not look at prices

[winner69]

From my experiences the best part of market corrections / collapses is when one realises jeez the markets down 50% from it highs and you congratulate yourself on essentially being out of the market before the peak

Some on here been through several big corrections / collapses but I have a feeling this could be new territory for many on Sharetrader

But then again we could be back at new highs in March

[winner69]

Today you have experienced history being made - biggest one day fall of DOW ever

I thought Sep 18 2001 post 911 was bad but that was only 685 down — far greater percentage wise though

[RGR367]

Today you have experienced history being made - biggest one day fall of DOW ever

Funny how tweets going around about today's #StockMarketCrash is being equated with Trump's winning(sic) way of handling the US of A economy.

[JeremyALD]

Kind of glad the stock market is closed today. There's going to be blood on Wednesday.

Let's hope HLG releases some amazing results to give me at least one green on the day!!

[Clints]

Unrelated for sure but you have to admit it was funny on CBSN to watch him talking up the economy for '18 whilst in the bottom right hand corner the DJ was plummeting

[Mickey]

Not a bad summary of today's fall on Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/traders-aren-t-panicking-despite-massive-late-session-stock-rout

I expect there will be a reasonable correction on the NZX tomorrow with foreign investors pulling out until the markets settle. ETF's will play a fairly significant role too I expect and no doubt some Kiwisavers moving to more conservative funds will exacerbate things a bit. I've only ever lost money selling and so I think I'll ride this out. The companies I'm invested in will wake up tomorrow and continue to go about their daily business irrespective of what Mr Market does.....

Good luck all :)

[JeremyALD]

Not a bad summary of today's fall on Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-05/traders-aren-t-panicking-despite-massive-late-session-stock-rout

I expect there will be a reasonable correction on the NZX tomorrow with foreign investors pulling out until the markets settle. ETF's will play a fairly significant role too I expect and no doubt some Kiwisavers moving to more conservative funds will exacerbate things a bit. I've only ever lost money selling and so I think I'll ride this out. The companies I'm invested in will wake up tomorrow and continue to go about their daily business irrespective of what Mr Market does.....

Good luck all :)

I've actually looked at all my stocks and apart from Atm and Pushlay none have had substantial rises over the past few years (as most have been rises in line with earnings). That makes me feel better because I feel they all are still decent value. Plus I have a few stocks that have already been punished that are at very low PEs.

I'm worried most about pushpay so I may consider selling that one down.

[fish]

Thanks for the link
Just because Bloomberg says traders arent panicking doesnt mean they wont panic tomorrow in NZ.
Hope they will but I doubt if the drop will be as much in NZ .
Reserve Bank statement on Thursday-consensus is that interest rates will be on hold until next year.
Most nz companies will be posting good 6 month reports soon

[winner69]

Unrelated for sure but you have to admit it was funny on CBSN to watch him talking up the economy for '18 whilst in the bottom right hand corner the DJ was plummeting

The stock market is not the economy eh

[winner69]

Thanks for the link
Just because Bloomberg says traders arent panicking doesnt mean they wont panic tomorrow in NZ.
Hope they will but I doubt if the drop will be as much in NZ .
Reserve Bank statement on Thursday-consensus is that interest rates will be on hold until next year.
Most nz companies will be posting good 6 month reports soon

Good profits yes

But in these times the question is how much will punters pay for a $ of profit/earnings

[Joshuatree]

1000 point ups and downs in minutes on USA mkts is unprecedented and sounds just a LITTLE panicky to me and with re 50% of the NZX owned overseas we will have to wait and see . Asian mkts in for an 8% drop today!?

[Baa_Baa]

[snip] ... and no doubt some Kiwisavers moving to more conservative funds will exacerbate things a bit.

Sadly it can take days or weeks for changes in Kiwisaver weightings to take effect, meantime the market could be a lot lower, or higher .. and people might forget that the KS managers will still be buying equities but now at lower prices. Best imho to settle on a KS weighting that suits ones circumstances and forget about it, unless personal circumstances change. It's a big ask to think one can 'trade' KS by chopping and changing their weightings.

[Clints]

The stock market is not the economy eh

But one can effect the other, my comment was the irony in what was on display.

[winner69]

Mark Lister from Craigs just tweeted he was going to have a day off but has gone to work to fix the share market

That's good ... no worries

[Mickey]

I think the wild ups and downs are driven by bots. The last part of the trading day was intra trading and likely to be mostly bots, especially when the DJ passed through the 50-day moving average.

[Joshuatree]

Mark Lister from Craigs just tweeted he was going to have a day off but has gone to work to fix the share market

That's good ... no worries

BEING AN OPTIMIST I just rang craigs to see if they had bothered to leave just one broker on duty, nah useless B'stards.

[winner69]

BEING AN OPTIMIST I just rang craigs to see if they had bothered to leave just one broker on duty, nah useless B'stards.

Probably busy with the big end of town mate

Surely somebody there to buy more LOV for percy today

[Joshuatree]

NOBODY there and im big enough. Just one more encouragement to leave Craigs traditional brokerage altogether.

[JeremyALD]

NOBODY there and im big enough. Just one more encouragement to leave Craigs traditional brokerage altogether.

JT I bought some FXL today. Seems like damn good value to me :)

[bull....]

NOBODY there and im big enough. Just one more encouragement to leave Craigs traditional brokerage altogether.


how do you sell aussie shares then or buy lol if nobody there

[kiora]

My view is it keeps me sharper,less lazy.Leverage magnifies the gains.One just has to make sure it doesn't magnify the losses.Yesterday just sold down my short/med term part of my portfolio to pay down my OD

[lawson]

Wall St Futures in the green now


DJIA Fut.
0.56%

S&P 500 Fut.
0.56%

[BobbyMorocco]

If the so called experts think that the exuberance shown in January where the major US markets rose roughly 7% is partly behind this sharp sell-off then why would NZ markets also sell-off just as quickly?

Our markets didn't rise 7% during January. In fact if it weren't for some last minute window dressing at the end of the month January would have been a down month for the NZX50.

I don't get it, if everyone thinks the NZX50 will drop when the US markets drop (and let's be honest tomorrow is going to be a stinker in NZ) shouldn't they also rise when US markets rise?

It just goes against all my logic that you can have it one way but not the other, particularly when the rises and falls are predominantly based on sentiment rather than fundamentals.

[Raz]

I'm weighed more heavily in the US markets than anywhere else. Given the way the market has moved I often have realised gains on a regular basis. Most of my friends in the US with large portfolios do the same.

I just keep taking money off the table continually so now have a pile of cash and equities....its a balanced approach which leaves you not losing your shirt. Given that, I know no one who is panicked today.

[bull....]

Wall St Futures in the green now


DJIA Fut.
0.56%


S&P 500 Fut.
0.56%


its misleading as the futures trade at big discount to cash so them being up is just closing the discount a bit , the cash markets shows pretty big open down still

its showing a open down 500 pt at the moment or arounfd another 2%

[Lorne Ranger]

If the so called experts think that the exuberance shown in January where the major US markets rose roughly 7% is partly behind this sharp sell-off then why would NZ markets also sell-off just as quickly?

Our markets didn't rise 7% during January. In fact if it weren't for some last minute window dressing at the end of the month January would have been a down month for the NZX50.

I don't get it, if everyone thinks the NZX50 will drop when the US markets drop (and let's be honest tomorrow is going to be a stinker in NZ) shouldn't they also rise when US markets rise?

It just goes against all my logic that you can have it one way but not the other, particularly when the rises and falls are predominantly based on sentiment rather than fundamentals.

It helps me to picture the NZ market like a hungry bird on the back of a rhino. When the rhino is well we can pick up plenty of scraps and berries to live quite nicely thanks very much. But when the rhino is spooked, all those berries weigh us down and doesn't matter that experts say we can fly - we better watch out, we are going to be in for a hairy ride down the hill. (look out for my upcoming children's book series based on this analogy!)

Yeah doesn't seem fair from a casual kiwi investor perspective I agree, but then we get the good with the bad. NZ seems to always be the canary in the share-mine (look out for my upcoming children's book series .....) so we just have to suck it up and learn to respond, or not, as the case may be. There are usually opportunities when the beast calms down again....

[Joshuatree]

how do you sell aussie shares then or buy lol if nobody there

ATP all my "investment grade" shares i buy and sell through craigs and my "trading' portfolio through ASB. Its transparent and keeps my accountants and the IRD happy. I have done trade on ASX today through my ASB account. But am reviewing things again as there are a couple of top up buys i want to get on my Investment port , but i cant..

[bull....]

ATP all my "investment grade" shares i buy and sell through craigs and my "trading' portfolio through ASB. Its transparent and keeps my accountants and the IRD happy. I have done trade on ASX today through my ASB account. But am reviewing things again as there are a couple of top up buys i want to get on my Investment port , but i cant..

okay makes sense to me

[bull....]

yuk dow showing nearly a 1000pt fall again ffor tonight at the moment 4% fall now on open although long way to go yet , 8% fall in 2 days wow if it happens that could mean a 10% fall in nz tomorrow ? long way to go to tomorrow yet

[blackcap]

yuk dow showing nearly a 1000pt fall again ffor tonight at the moment 4% fall now on open although long way to go yet , 8% fall in 2 days wow if it happens that could mean a 10% fall in nz tomorrow ? long way to go to tomorrow yet

Hi Bull, where are you getting your Dow figures from? Link would be greatly appreciated. Cheers.

[Kay]

Out of interest. Is there a defining point where a decline is labelled a "crash". Or is that media dependent?

[couta1]

Out of interest. Is there a defining point where a decline is labelled a "crash". Or is that media dependent? More than 20% down.

[Kay]

Thanks... And that would in the space of a week or so?

[stoploss]

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crash.asp

[Valuegrowth]

World financial system has stretched beyond the sustainable level. As a result of this, overheated markets are falling. In the meantime US dollar should stay firm. Stocks should follow commodity as well as Bit coin.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/why-are-global-stock-markets-falling

[winner69]

S&P500 down 0.9% Year to Date

Not too bad

Dire Staits had a great song — Why Worry

[Lorne Ranger]

yuk dow showing nearly a 1000pt fall again ffor tonight at the moment 4% fall now on open although long way to go yet , 8% fall in 2 days wow if it happens that could mean a 10% fall in nz tomorrow ? long way to go to tomorrow yet

Maybe, but personally, given the global outlook looks ok and there is no compelling apparant cause for a heavy decline other than a month of strong gains, I doubt the NZX will be that badly hit. ASX is already levelling out after the opening plummet. Hopefully the US markets start to show some restraint before the end of their sessions. We might get a mini ASX like sell off, some immediate drops on opening then a slow recovery by end of the day. Frankly I think Waitangi Day was perfectly placed to deflect the worst of this storm.

[Lorne Ranger]

World financial system has stretched beyond the sustainable level. As a result of this, overheated markets are falling. In the meantime US dollar should stay firm. Stocks should follow commodity as well as Bit coin.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/feb/05/why-are-global-stock-markets-falling

This article is based on normal market control expectations - inflation rises, increase interest rates to counter it. But this is Trump we're talking about, he does everything people tell him not to and nothing they recommend. So there's every chance he will let inflation rise and leave rates where they are to the benefit of himself and friends.

[stoploss]

This article is based on normal market control expectations - inflation rises, increase interest rates to counter it. But this is Trump we're talking about, he does everything people tell him not to and nothing they recommend. So there's every chance he will let inflation rise and leave rates where they are to the benefit of himself and friends.

Trump Isn't the Federal Reserve.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes Waitangi Day saved the NZX to a certain extent. Extended,overvalued markets are having sell-off and it is not abnormal. I also think NZ market will not hit that bad.

Maybe, but personally, given the global outlook looks ok and there is no compelling apparant cause for a heavy decline other than a month of strong gains, I doubt the NZX will be that badly hit. ASX is already levelling out after the opening plummet. Hopefully the US markets start to show some restraint before the end of their sessions. We might get a mini ASX like sell off, some immediate drops on opening then a slow recovery by end of the day. Frankly I think Waitangi Day was perfectly placed to deflect the worst of this storm.

[Beagle]

S&P500 down 0.9% Year to Date

Not too bad

Dire Staits had a great song — Why Worry

They had a lot of great songs...unfortunately the Dow futures are providing a reason at this point to think correction this still has legs, currently trading at a fair value of more than 900 points lower again https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/

[Lorne Ranger]

Trump Isn't the Federal Reserve.

Indeed, you're right, the man knows his boundaries!

[minimoke]

Yes Waitangi Day saved the NZX to a certain extent. Extended,overvalued markets are having sell-off and it is not abnormal. I also think NZ market will not hit that bad.
I've hunted out my galoshes in case there is blood on the streets - preparing myself for a couple of horrible days. May have to unpackage those stop loss limits.

[couta1]

I've hunted out my galoshes in case there is blood on the streets - preparing myself for a couple of horrible days. May have to unpackage those stop loss limits. HaHa, we all know what happens when a crowd tries to rush through a single door exit all at once. PS-Looking promising for my A2 top up.

[freddagg]

S&P500 down 0.9% Year to Date

Not too bad

Dire Staits had a great song — Why Worry

" Dire Staits " was that a Freudian slip ?

[value_investor]

We'll see what happens Wednesday, but if the Australian market is something to go by then we could have some sales tomorrow.

A little gift because a lot of companies will be announcing their HY and dividends soon. Add in the fact that fundamentals haven't changed at all in our local markets. Could be some juicy dividend yields on offer!

[macduffy]

Trump Isn't the Federal Reserve.

No, but he has his man installed as chairman of the Federal Reserve now.

[bull....]

dow open now minus 1200 or 5% down

hearing big etf volitility liquidations tonight forced sellers at any price

[Baa_Baa]

HaHa, we all know what happens when a crowd tries to rush through a single door exit all at once. PS-Looking promising for my A2 top up.

Will you wait until a bottom / upturn or buy down into weakness at risk of it going lower still?

[couta1]

Will you wait until a bottom / upturn or buy down into weakness at risk of it going lower still? Will see what the US markets look like in the morning, if they are down significantly again, then I will wait ,otherwise will buy tomorrow arvo.

[bull....]

HaHa, we all know what happens when a crowd tries to rush through a single door exit all at once. PS-Looking promising for my A2 top up.


yes due to nzx orderly market rule there is only a door for a few , the rest unfortunatley will be locked out until the carnage is over

[winner69]

yes due to nzx orderly market rule there is only a door for a few , the rest unfortunatley will be locked out until the carnage is over

Maybe that’s why Mark Lister at Craig’s not answering the phone even though he said he went to work

Looking after the few maybe

[Joshuatree]

he's just a generalist hack imo. a smoother and soother, its all too hard for mums and dads ;we will look after you, kinda guy.:t_up:

[bull....]

Maybe that’s why Mark Lister at Craig’s not answering the phone even though he said he went to work

Looking after the few maybe

devising there plan for tomorrow

[tim23]

he's just a generalist hack imo. a smoother and soother, its all too hard for mums and dads ;we will look after you, kinda guy.:t_up:
Gee that seems a bit tough I reckon hes quite reasoned and balanced.

[winner69]

Gee that seems a bit tough I reckon hes quite reasoned and balanced.

Don't think he has lived through a real market collapse yet

[winner69]

From the end of 2011 to the end of 2017 the S&P500 incraesed from 1258 to 2673 - 13% pa

Of the increase 26% came from earnings increase and the other 74% came from PE expansion. In other words its happier and happier punters paying more and more for a $ of earnings - lots more

Its that PE expansion that may be unwinding at the moment ....even though earnings are still increasing.

If the S&P500 goes back to the same PE it was in 2011 over this year it will end the year at about 1800 - 30% less than what it is at the moment

[winner69]

Mark with some reassuring words

No worries

[Jerry]

Glass half full kinda guy. Now someone can let me know what % ours (NZX) will fall tomorrow. ;)

[skid]

Indeed, you're right, the man knows his boundaries!



is the new guy worth his salt?---Otherwise Trump is just replacing anyone who had anything to do with Obama--(not sure if that qualifies as

''knowing your boundaries''-)--He certainly doesnt respect them in any other areas

[JeremyALD]

Glass half full kinda guy. Now someone can let me know what % ours (NZX) will fall tomorrow. ;)

Depends on america tonight but I would say back to around 8000 so 2.5%

[Baa_Baa]

Conventional wisdom, kudos and hat tip to Phaedrus and Hoop.

9466

[RupertBear]

Are people planning to sell if possible tomorrow and then buy back in again once things have settled or are people going to hold on, tough it out and then top up? Not sure whether to rush for the door or wait and watch :confused:

[Jantar]

HaHa, we all know what happens when a crowd tries to rush through a single door exit all at once. PS-Looking promising for my A2 top up. I have already put in sell orders for a quarter of my portfolio, and buy orders for the same shares at a lower price ;)

[RupertBear]

You might have just answered my question BaaBaa .... sell then wait then buy...

[Baa_Baa]

You might have just answered my question BaaBaa .... sell then wait then buy...

It helps to have a personal strategy and a plan. ST is neither. Yeah, it's lonely having to make your own decisions. Peace of mind comes with time, experience and ... action.

[couta1]

Are people planning to sell if possible tomorrow and then buy back in again once things have settled or are people going to hold on, tough it out and then top up? Not sure whether to rush for the door or wait and watch :confused: Hey RB, which door are you planning to exit through, the red or the green one?

[huxley]

Are people planning to sell if possible tomorrow and then buy back in again once things have settled or are people going to hold on, tough it out and then top up? Not sure whether to rush for the door or wait and watch :confused:

I really don't want to tell you what to do, but the biggest mistakes I've made on the market have involved selling.. I tend to remember, an investment is something that has intrinsic value – that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective, even if you could never sell it.

[RupertBear]

It helps to have a personal strategy and a plan. ST is neither. Yeah, it's lonely having to make your own decisions. Peace of mind comes with time, experience and ... action.

Oh I do have a plan Baa Baa, I plan to buy at the bottom and watch them go up! Just wasnt sure if I should sell some first and wondered what you seasoned gurus thought. But yes everyone needs to have their own strategy. :)

[RupertBear]

I really don't want to tell you what to do, but the biggest mistakes I've made on the market have involved selling.. I tend to remember, an investment is something that has intrinsicvalue – that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective, even ifyou could never sell it.

Thanks huxley, I have decided to hold and use it as an oportunity to top up and buy some good quality shares at a cheaper price.

[Yoda]

In my limited understanding , if i sell, i pay 33% tax on the profit. Now depending on how much that is , depends on if its worth it ot not , as you need to buy back at a 1/3 lower than you profit was.
So if i sell at $ 10 and make $3 profit i will need to buy back at 9 to break even ?
If i sell at $10 and only make $1 i need to buy back at $9.66, or something like to break even

if i buy back lower, i make money, if i buy back higher than 2/3 of my profit i loose. At least thats how i see trading ......
I,m probably wrong ,

but thats why investing can be better...... The less trades you do the less tax you pay on each one loosing you a1/3 each time ..

so for me i think if my profit is not much, i will probably sell if it goes past the MA 50.
if i have a bigger profit i might just hang on

does that sound logical ?

[RupertBear]

Hey RB, which door are you planning to exit through, the red or the green one?

Bears dont like red Couta so it would have to be the green door but that door maybe closed tomorrow :p

[Yoda]

9467This is how the US CURRENTLY STANDS

[huxley]

Hopefully this (https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/migrants-travel-foreign-exchange/fx/exchange-rate-graphs/nzd-usd/) will respond accordingly.....

[couta1]

Bears dont like red Couta so it would have to be the green door but that door maybe closed tomorrow :p Well I guess the answer to your question has been provided then.

[Valuegrowth]

As I said volatility will be new normal. I am pretty sure NZ market will not drop like DOW or Nikkei. Sometimes Dow may go up tomorrow. If so NZ market will escape from falling at least tomorrow. Winners for 2018 should be those who put money in overlooked areas. It is time to study where smart money invests.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/vix-spike-implications-2018-2

[winner69]

Stocks with good fundamentals go down in a correction/crash just as stocks with bad fundamentals go up in good times

[bull....]

1000 pt run from the lows on the open lol crazy

[Joshuatree]

Unprecedented. Dow currently in the green. Waitangi Day and no brokers at work:mad ;:(for the ASX)may mean less top up opps on the NZX today.

[Grimy]

As a bit of fun. If everyone had funds to top up just one of their investments-and everything you had was down the same percentage today. or you were going to add anther stock to your portfolio, what would it be?

[ari]

Unprecedented. Dow currently in the green. Waitangi Day and no brokers at work:mad ;:(for the ASX)may mean less top up opps on the NZX today.

Didn't last long...all one hell ride...across Asia and Europe all down from FTSE -2.64% to Hang Seng -5-02% . US best so far, trying hard to show support.....

[kiwico]

My US share were collectively in the green until around 8am but are now collectively in the red and working their way lower so I'm expecting a big shower on the NZX today. Incredible that AMZN seems impervious to the market turmoil and just goes up and up.

[craic]

I will have 34,000 Spk on the market this morning at 349 cps. Half are mine and half area family members. That appears to be half a cent below the quoted market price. I will expect a further drop of anything up to 50cps per share over the next few days. The aim is to buy back at the bottom and possibly have enough cash to pay for the new fireplace/woodstove that is about to be installed. I am too old -at eighty - to sit tight and wait for the second coming.

[ari]

I will have 34,000 Spk on the market this morning at 349 cps. Half are mine and half area family members. That appears to be half a cent below the quoted market price. I will expect a further drop of anything up to 50cps per share over the next few days. The aim is to buy back at the bottom and possibly have enough cash to pay for the new fireplace/woodstove that is about to be installed. I am too old -at eighty - to sit tight and wait for the second coming.

Good luck.....all the best for a warm winter!

[Fatboyj]

As a bit of fun. If everyone had funds to top up just one of their investments-and everything you had was down the same percentage today. or you were going to add anther stock to your portfolio, what would it be?

OCA and ETH

[bull....]

this is it not a bottom on the markets in my opinion , us is consolidating today im expecting a move lower again very soon. vix still elevated , europe couldnt even rally , rates moving back up again etc still correction mode no buying from me yet

[winner69]

Panic over ...was there any need to panic in first place?

At least it gave the media something to get excited about when not much else seemed to be going on....and boy did they make the most of it. They just love sensational market collapses, property market collapses and can even turn a bit of rain in Auckland into to the biggest storm ever (must fix Tamaki Drive though)

Suppose what we have seen is just normal behaviour we have to expect when computers essentially run the market so expect more of this as the market relentlessly climbs higher.

[winner69]

Good luck.....all the best for a warm winter!

Jacinda is going to help him out

[minimoke]

Really what's all the fuss?

Today Dow down 3.9% for its position a month ago.
Today Dow up 3.5% from its position 3 months ago

Edit.
And i've just had a peek at my US shares and they are up 25% on what they were a year ago. My alternative was to have my money sitting on my bank account earning 3%

Really pisses me off when the media are banging on about yesterday - what about today!

[kiwico]

My US share were collectively in the green until around 8am but are now collectively in the red and working their way lower so I'm expecting a big shower on the NZX today. Incredible that AMZN seems impervious to the market turmoil and just goes up and up.

It was me that took the shower (not the shares) and when I got out the market had changed to green across most of the board. What a timely turnaround.

[Raz]

Really what's all the fuss?

Today Dow down 3.9% for its position a month ago.
Today Dow up 3.5% from its position 3 months ago

Edit.
And i've just had a peek at my US shares and they are up 25% on what they were a year ago. My alternative was to have my money sitting on my bank account earning 3%

Really pisses me off when the media are banging on about yesterday - what about today!

haha Its not over..its never over..just wait to next time!!

[Cricketfan]

Panic over ...was there any need to panic in first place?

At least it gave the media something to get excited about when not much else seemed to be going on....and boy did they make the most of it. They just love sensational market collapses, property market collapses and can even turn a bit of rain in Auckland into to the biggest storm ever (must fix Tamaki Drive though)

Suppose what we have seen is just normal behaviour we have to expect when computers essentially run the market so expect more of this as the market relentlessly climbs higher.


This sort of thing has happened a few times in the last year or two (Brexit, Trump etc). I've only been investing for about 4 years and already I feel jaded from these reports. One day there will be actual reason to panic but I feel like it'll be like The Boy Who Cried Wolf. In the meantime I'll continue with my strategy of doing nothing, which has worked so far.

[suse]

My biggest holding is in HBL. I cashed up half my shares late last year and popped into a HBL bank account. I cashed up a small holding in CBL last year before they nosedived to buy into ATM and PPH, and 2 weeks ago I cashed out half of those at good prices. So all in all, good timing.

I'm not panicking about this current correction but I am wondering if I should ditch some more shares as I will need the money in about 6 months for my new house, (although the bank is pretty happy to lend as much as we need and more, I'd like to keep the mortgage a manageable size). My problem is I DO have a high risk appetite so I'm inclined to leave my money where it is and wait for the full year results and dividend from HBL... Maybe I should lose ATM and PPH entirely and take the profit but they do make my life more interesting and make me feel better about the red arrows for my dogs, BLT and NTL. So I'm interested to hear what others think - how long does a correction normally run for. (how long is a piece of string??)

[blackcap]

I'm not panicking about this current correction but I am wondering if I should ditch some more shares as I will need the money in about 6 months for my new house, ( - how long does a correction normally run for. (how long is a piece of string??)

Firstly, wow that is just mental.. (predicated on your word need, using classic definition of need, not necessarily the modern version of need) need money for house and have it in sharemarket.
Secondly, correct, how long is a piece of string no one really knows. A bear market if it gets to one of those can last longer than 10 years.

[couta1]

Dash, thanks to Waitangi day looks like I've missed out on my A2 top up, what were we celebrating yesterday anyway, oh I remember now, the gravy train continuing for another 170 odd years.

[blackcap]

Dash, thanks to Waitangi day looks like I've missed out on my A2 top up, what were we celebrating yesterday anyway, oh I remember now, the gravy train continuing for another 170 odd years.

Hey Couta, you could have topped up on the ASX.....

[hardt]

SP500 closed up nicely today, my US portfolio had a rocky week... good thing the stellar year of growth all around the market is set to continue.
AMZN seemed to weather the sell off well enough.
I am mostly interested in BioPharma over there so I am piling money into Alexion.

Big tax cuts coming into play for next reporting season will be worth the wait.

Among other things, the main premise of a bear market would be depressed growth...

Fundamentals of the bull market remain in tact, growth remains at the forefront of everything...

[Joshuatree]

DOW up 600 points atm:confused::eek2::D

[couta1]

Hey Couta, you could have topped up on the ASX..... I have never done that before and with ANZ Securities closed, how would that work?

[blackcap]

I have never done that before and with ANZ Securities closed, how would that work?

ANZ securities would have been open yesterday to buy and sell on the ASX. You just put an order in to buy on the ASX and you can even settle in NZD....
When you click on "buy" it gives you an option of NZ or AU with the down arrow thingee.... from there the world is your oyster.

Do you trade online or do you phone through orders? Online its as easy as buying a NZ stock.

[Joshuatree]

What an UP combo. the USA mkts; and Spacex has just done a successful launch of the most powerful rocket ever with the booster rockets doing a successful synchronised landing back on earth. Amongst its payload is a Tesla roadster complete with dummy to float around in space with all the other junk. Impressive duo to watch.

[Grimy]

Everything I have either hasn't moved, or down by only a couple of cents (ATM).
Not even worth doing a top up ................

[peat]

well its a good day to test your true intentions however seems to be no major stock down more than 4% and most around 2%

I tend to think the bear will growl a little more before the rout is over - S+P500 re4covery looks corrective and lows will be tested and pushed further down.
This event could well signal reversal from bull to bear market - too early to tell for sure. I think this is a real possibility however my EW advisor things this is only wave 4 and stockmarket will have another run to new highs.

Either way one should hold quality with the understanding that one wont need to sell if fan becomes very brown.

[couta1]

ANZ securities would have been open yesterday to buy and sell on the ASX. You just put an order in to buy on the ASX and you can even settle in NZD....
When you click on "buy" it gives you an option of NZ or AU with the down arrow thingee.... from there the world is your oyster.

Do you trade online or do you phone through orders? Online its as easy as buying a NZ stock. Yes you are correct, there were a couple on board at ANZ Securities yesterday to execute Aussie orders, excuse me while I just go and bang my head against the nearest wall as punishment.

[Mickey]

I think today is a huge positive for NZ and the NZX. Given that around 50% of our market is foreign owned, then I see a less than 2% market correction as being a vote of confidence. Many of the opening orders may have been placed on Monday and before today's US market rally so probably reflected the sentiment at that time. I expect we haven't seen the last of the volatility but I am encouraged by what I've seen thus far.

[Biscuit]

We are at the tail end of the bull run and volatility is increasing. Why stay in this market if you can get out?

[couta1]

We are at the tail end of the bull run and volatility is increasing. Why stay in this market if you can get out? Because companies are still producing good profits and paying good divvies, growth companies like A2 won't be kept down for long due to an insatiable demand for their products.

[minimoke]

We are at the tail end of the bull run and volatility is increasing. Why stay in this market if you can get out?
And what will you do with your cash. Stick it in the bank for 3%. No thanks.

[JeremyALD]

I think today is a huge positive for NZ and the NZX. Given that around 50% of our market is foreign owned, then I see a less than 2% market correction as being a vote of confidence. Many of the opening orders may have been placed on Monday and before today's US market rally so probably reflected the sentiment at that time. I expect we haven't seen the last of the volatility but I am encouraged by what I've seen thus far.

I agree. It's a small solid market with some very solid companies. We also pay good divies.

[Biscuit]

And what will you do with your cash. Stick it in the bank for 3%. No thanks.

I don't think about "return" - its about "risk/return". Most of my assets aren't liquid, and I still have money in shares, but relatively little and I have a pile of cash sitting in the bank earning nothing.

[Balance]

Warren Buffett's advice rings loud at times like this :“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

[Biscuit]

Warren Buffett's advice rings loud at times like this :“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”

I'd say that would be very good advice when we are half way through a crash and people are staring at large portfolio losses and wondering if they should get out. Maybe not such good advice at this time.

[minimoke]

Warren Buffett's advice rings loud at times like this :“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.”
And when has that ever happened? As biscuit says above: its about Risk / reward.

[dabsman]

Who cares about 4% losses? Even 10% losses? Seriously can make that back in a month or 2. Not sure what all the worry is about?

[couta1]

Warren Buffett's advice rings loud at times like this :“I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.” Exactly, when you take a look at the "Wall of Worry"chart since 2009 and all the reasons to sell along the way, yet the market has gone up hugely since then, the worry dips were big time news while the gradual improvements go unnoticed, but end up being massive.

[Biscuit]

Because companies are still producing good profits and paying good divvies, growth companies like A2 won't be kept down for long due to an insatiable demand for their products.

Unfortunately, some of us are old enough to remember back over successive cycles back to the eighties - and remember all the good companies that had been making good profits that ended up going to the wall or hitting up shareholders for more funding.

[Biscuit]

Exactly, when you take a look at the "Wall of Worry"chart since 2009 and all the reasons to sell along the way, yet the market has gone up hugely since then, the worry dips were big time news while the gradual improvements go unnoticed, but end up being massive.

Yes, I remember buying lots of shares in 2009. I remember borrowing to do it. That was 9 years ago.

[Beagle]

I spent many many hours over the last two days watching CNBC the world's leading business channel, (channel 91 on SKY for those that don't know) watching various experts many with several decades experience in the market opine over the current state of where things are at.
1. No surprise there is no consensus on short term expected direction of the market.
2. There does seem to be some sort of consensus that leveraged ETF's, (some leveraged as much as 3:1 and in particular and inverse VIX fund that needed to quickly liquidate (I recall it as over 1 billion of equities) together with computerized trading programs exacerbated the volatility.
3. General consensus this bull market is very mature.
4. General consensus that one fairly serious issue is the rise in long term interest rates leading to a possible corresponding compression of PE's
5. PE's have expanded a LOT over the period since the GFC
6. The U.S. economy is in good shape and global growth is sound
7. Earnings growth in the U.S. this year will be on average mid - late teens % per annum, fuelled by the radical decrease in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, (note that the last time the U.S. corporate tax rate was this low was 1940.
8.The calmness, (very low VIX) and lack of correction or pullback in the markets in 2017 was extremely unusual and don't expect the market to return to that state any time soon.
9. Widespread belief that the 10 year Govt treasury rate in the U.S. is headed higher this year

My thoughts. Highly likely that we'll see some retracement of the average PE this year on the back of higher interest rates and I expect a very significant increase in volatility this year compared to 2017. I think some compression in PE's will be a widespread phenomenon around the world and despite global economic growth being fairly robust we could see a fairly flat year in global equity markets or some possible downside. The high average dividend yield of the NZX will provide a degree of protection to expected returns for calendar 2018 so I have a focus on high fully imputed dividend yield companies with a strong and resilient business strategy as I thin k one's dividend yield might be there only real return from the market for 2018, (I hope I am wrong on this point).

My strategy. I took profits recently on a number of shares, (all of which are now trading below the level I sold them at). I'm at just over 50% cash at present and am very cautious this month in particular and will only deploy dry powder on a case by case basis as companies report where I see a compelling case for expanding my current holding. I think there's about a 30-40% chance the current extreme level of the VIX is a warning that this correction isn't over by any stretch of the imagination. After a very strong 2017 I feel comfortable with being very cautious at present and protecting my capital.

[Joshuatree]

Good summary Roger, yes CNBC is great in giving us the macro. I cant see the party carrying on as before and volatility is here as well as crabways charts. As always great stock picks will outperform and this is a great reminder to review and reset ones portfolio and strategy remembering the 2 rules1 Dont lose money, 2 Dont lose money

[bull....]

fade the rallies i reckon is what will happen this month , its been a very long time since theres been a down month. i watch cnbc too but for free now ... did away with sky tv cnbc was the only reason i had it really so now watching it for free who needs sky tv

[winner69]

Bit of a non-event on the NZX today

If punters think / believe that a market correction is about to happen (take the NZ market down 20% to 30%) then today might have been blessed as the day to sell at pretty good prices before the down turn actually starts.

The market correction wont be economy/earnings related — its a change in sentiment, ie PE compression. Major corrections can take a while to unfold, they don’t happen overnight or a overa week.

Even stocks with good fundamentals go down, just like stocks with bad fundamentals go up in good times.

So today might be that day of reprieve before it’s get worse

Only saying this to those who believe a crash/correction is imminent

I just watch the stocks I own and act accordingly on each.

[Biscuit]

........ today might have been blessed as the day to sell at pretty good prices before the down turn actually starts.......

Blessed Wednesday

[Joshuatree]

Yes maybe a gift to get some more cash out/ rebalance/ review etc and be more cautious and change ones mindset from bullish to cautious and cap preservation.
Re the ASX a friend just texted me ( havnt verified this)that the DOW is up 70% since the GFC but the aus all ords are down 15% since the GFC making their sell off rather irrational yest.

[couta1]

Hey winner, down 20-30% is a crash, not a correction. Regarding PE ratios, unlike the US a lot of our good companies are sitting on reasonable ratios well under 20, so not sure of the need for compression.

[Balance]

Exactly, when you take a look at the "Wall of Worry"chart since 2009 and all the reasons to sell along the way, yet the market has gone up hugely since then, the worry dips were big time news while the gradual improvements go unnoticed, but end up being massive.


Let the headlines of 'Bloodbath', 'Bloodletting' and 'Crash' be your friends.

The media in NZ really are very helpful in that respect.

[Beagle]

Hey winner, down 20-30% is a crash, not a correction. Regarding PE ratios, unlike the US a lot of our good companies are sitting on reasonable ratios well under 20, so not sure of the need for compression.

10 year average PE on the NZX is 16, currently about 21-22 depending upon who one listens too. I don't think there's a need, its just market sentiment mate. if the DOW puts in a real shocker like a 3000 point drop in one day I wouldn't rule out a reversion to the 10 year average PE for our market over time and probably just a few months which would mean high PE stocks getting a serious reality check despite very strong growth.
PE compression can be a real tough thing to stomach too. Notice how SUM's SP was $5.60 September 2016 and earnings have grown well over 50% since then and the SP is now lower. Market overall has well and truly outpaced SUM over the last 16-17 months so PE compression can REALLY hurt !
I think if sentiment changes the tide will affect most companies and only those like SUM and a few others with sound growth prospects and low PE with a resilient business model like OCA would be better positioned than others to withstand the outflowing tide.

[artemis]

On THE Black Monday in 1987 I happened to be staying in New York not far from Wall Street. I didn't immediately realise what had happened but it was obvious something had. There were all these knots of men in suits standing around on the streets talking soberly and not looking at all happy.

The media, such as it was back then, had one topic only for most of the week.

[Biscuit]

On THE Black Monday in 1987 I happened to be staying in New York not far from Wall Street. I didn't immediately realise what had happened but it was obvious something had. There were all these knots of men in suits standing around on the streets talking soberly and not looking at all happy.....

Yes, tense knots of sad men in suits interspersed with the terminal thuds of high-rise be-suited jumpers is always the first sign of good buying ahead.

[QOH]

Unfortunately, some of us are old enough to remember back over successive cycles back to the eighties - and remember all the good companies that had been making good profits that ended up going to the wall or hitting up shareholders for more funding.
Yes those of us who remember 1987 are more wary. 30 years ago we had time to make up our losses, not enough time left now.
Before 1987 crash, I was making so much, I’d think “what am I am going to do with my money if I take it out of share market” kind of like now, who wants to settle for 3% interest.
I learnt from 1987 that it wasn’t a one day crash, it went on for months and I lost about 75% of my capital.

[Joshuatree]

I remember when i saw Brierleys s/p drop i rushed to the ph and yelled at m"Investment adviser "buy more ",totally ignoring, not allowing his almost protesting advice not too. Months of numbness after.

[Biscuit]

I remember when i saw Brierleys s/p drop i rushed to the ph and yelled at m"Investment adviser "buy more ",totally ignoring, not allowing his almost protesting advice not too. Months of numbness after.

I remember my sharebroker recommending BIL over the phone just before that. That was when I learned not to trust anyone's advice.

[RTM]

My thoughts. Highly likely that we'll see some retracement of the average PE this year .....

Nice summary of your thoughts Mr Beagle. Thanks. Of course the PE could also retrace with improving earnings rather than the share price dropping. And that would be quite nice if one is lucky enough to own stocks in this category.

[minimoke]

For what its worth I am down 0.43% on the day. Not as bad is I thought it would be

[fish]

I remember when i saw Brierleys s/p drop i rushed to the ph and yelled at m"Investment adviser "buy more ",totally ignoring, not allowing his almost protesting advice not too. Months of numbness after.

Did the same-painful lesson-the brierly executives(?paul collins whilst actually selling his shares) and analysts/tip sheets were all proclaiming what a cheap buy for big future profits and many of us were too naive and believed them

[dabsman]

For what its worth I am down 0.43% on the day. Not as bad is I thought it would be

I'm 0.65% down - just another day

[Jonboyz]

I'm really disappointed that stocks didn't go lower today. I was wanting to get some bargains. Maybe tomorrow.

[bull....]

I'm really disappointed that stocks didn't go lower today. I was wanting to get some bargains. Maybe tomorrow.

bound to be lower tomorrow i reckon , asx already showing a 1% fall tomorrow ah but still a long night to go

Im surprised no one has mentioned the possible double top formation on the nzx formed last week

[Valuegrowth]

After this volatility and sell-off attractive strong balance sheet firms, Low labour cost stocks and undervalued defensive stocks could do well. Current sell-off is mainly limited to expanded P/E markets over 20. Some less known markets throughout the world are holding well may be due to attractive valuation. As I expected even NZ market didn’t dive like other markets.

https://hacked.com/market-update-black-monday-2018/

[hardt]

After this volatility and sell-off attractive strong balance sheet firms, Low labour cost stocks and undervalued defensive stocks could do well. Current sell-off is mainly limited to expanded P/E markets over 20. Some less known markets throughout the world are holding well may be due to attractive valuation. As I expected even NZ market didn’t dive like other markets.

https://hacked.com/market-update-black-monday-2018/

A lot of it is thanks to HFT's... These algorithmic scumbags of the market engineer hysteria to spook the masses of retail investors into a selloff.

Humans in the market are considered playthings by most quant HFT firms.

[workingdad]

A lot of it is thanks to HFT's... These algorithmic scumbags of the market engineer hysteria to spook the masses of retail investors into a selloff.

Humans in the market are considered playthings by most quant HFT firms.


How else are they meant to make their money? create a sell off, buy in at 10% discount and count the cash a couple days later.... poor ol humans freaking out lose the plot and pressure sell. I have a lot of money invested outside market but what little I have left was .2% down today.... bigger swings on non 'crash' days

[peat]

Im surprised no one has mentioned the possible double top formation on the nzx formed last week

I'm not seeing it on the FNZ or the NZX50.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm not seeing it on the FNZ or the NZX50.

It's bit scratchy calling a double top about 13 points on 31 Jan below the high 5 Jan, but NZX certainly turned away on the broader sentiment. The whole thing looks like a brain fart at the moment. Silly but reality, that NZX reacts so preciously to SP5/DOW, but it does. Hence eyes on.

[Joshuatree]

DOW looking like a 300 point drop on opening Disney exceeds profits estimates.

[bohemian]

Dow up about 200 points. Can't help but think a lot of wishful thinking and reporting but the media and those who know sweet FA about the stock market. We do know that nothing goes up forever so we know what to expect.

[bull....]

Dow up about 200 points. Can't help but think a lot of wishful thinking and reporting but the media and those who know sweet FA about the stock market. We do know that nothing goes up forever so we know what to expect.

those 200 pts all but gone in 10 mins after your post just goes to show things are still highly volitile

[arc]

Personally I think the possibility of an exaggerated Saw-Tooth decline pattern evolving is relatively high. Sell-offs tend to happen as discrete bulk events, but they are ongoing, brokers stop for a while, "an hour", "a day" or so to let the market think it's the new "low" ... before commencing another round of sell-offs.

[winner69]

This quite good -

Stock markets slide for a day. Result: mass panic and wall-to-wall coverage.

Soil is sliding off the land worldwide, threatening the entire basis of human survival. Result: indifference, no matter coverage.

What is salient is not important

What is important is not salient

(Don’t know who said, sent to me without reference)

[arc]

This quite good -

Stock markets slide for a day. Result: mass panic and wall-to-wall coverage.

Soil is sliding off the land worldwide, threatening the entire basis of human survival. Result: indifference, no matter coverage.

What is salient is not important

What is important is not salient

(Don’t know who said, sent to me without reference)


Absolutely...
There is also that old saying, You cant eat dollar bills.

[Beagle]

MASSIVE intraday and daily volatility the new normal. I'm expecting the complete opposite of 2017 remarkable calmness for most of 2018.
Strong stomach's and seat belt's required or take some money off the table for a while like I have.

[winner69]

MASSIVE intraday and daily volatility the new normal. I'm expecting the complete opposite of 2017 remarkable calmness for most of 2018.
Strong stomach's and seat belt's required or take some money off the table for a while like I have.

You into these VIX derivatives ...they sound fun

Even though some funds have been wiped out over the last day or two

[bull....]

the times are a changing , better adjust your strategies

[couta1]

the times are a changing , better adjust your strategies No need, don't fight the bots, work around them and stand firm, their goal is to produce fear and panic forcing weak hands to sell ,so they can then mop up cheap shares, don't play their game.

[Balance]

This quite good -

Stock markets slide for a day. Result: mass panic and wall-to-wall coverage.

Soil is sliding off the land worldwide, threatening the entire basis of human survival. Result: indifference, no matter coverage.

What is salient is not important

What is important is not salient

(Don’t know who said, sent to me without reference)

A rebuke from Kate to her fellow NZ Herald's matthew 'wet behind the ears' Theunissen business writer over his emotive 'Bloodbath' article, blindly copying headlines from overseas.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11989277

Pity really as he could have put some perspective on the market drop - giving up 5% after 35% gain is 'bloodbath'?

[Mickey]

You into these VIX derivatives ...they sound fun

Even though some funds have been wiped out over the last day or two

It's the derivatives that are destabilising relatively sound capital markets. Monday's Wall St record plummet was not a market correction - it was a meltdown. Wild swings of 100 or so points either way in the space of an hour constitutes mayhem and chaos, which is more likened to a drunken splurge in Las Vegas. I think we are yet to see an overall market correction but just looking at my own portfolio (which is not necessarily reflective of the NZX) - my graph is showing a steady line down from +15.10% at the beginning of the year to +7.9% yesterday so I'll be watching with interest as the current volatility may be masking some other underlying theme.

[winner69]

Nicholas Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness should be required reading for all investors. I read it at least once a year (good for long haul flights)

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

This dude covers it off better than we
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/marks-on-taleb-and-the-self-inflicted-anxiety-that-investors-create-for-themselves/

So for a pleasurable life and less moments of anxiety and stress please stop looking up prices every few minutes ...or hours. Not good for your health

Bull... he is excused as he is a real trader and needs to look every second to make a bob (but probably has many anxious moments as well)

[blackcap]

Nicholas Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness should be required reading for all investors. I read it at least once a year (good for long haul flights)

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

This dude covers it off better than we
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/marks-on-taleb-and-the-self-inflicted-anxiety-that-investors-create-for-themselves/

So for a pleasurable life and less moments of anxiety and stress please stop looking up prices every few minutes ...or hours. Not good for your health

Bull... he is excused as he is a real trader and needs to look every second to make a bob (but probably has many anxious moments as well)

Thanks for the reminder Winner... need to get the book from the library again and read. It certainly was an eye opener the first time. He writes well too does Taleb. I already knew about the anxiety at looking often at markets, if you know the psychology behind it you can actually make quite a bit of money off that fact alone.

The big problem being our mind that the negative moments cause more "pain" then the positive moments cause "pleasure" by about 2 to 1 or even more thus never being enough to compensate if you look at your positions too frequently.

[minimoke]

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

I'll be one to admit my portfolio gets the regular f5 treatment. Its part of the fun. But its only on the first of every month do i take a serious look and record where each share is at. Hence I have a monthly trail going back decades on my overall positions. And lso why I don't get too anxious - as generally the position improves month on month and if not certainly year on year.

[couta1]

Nicholas Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness should be required reading for all investors. I read it at least once a year (good for long haul flights)

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

This dude covers it off better than we
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/marks-on-taleb-and-the-self-inflicted-anxiety-that-investors-create-for-themselves/

So for a pleasurable life and less moments of anxiety and stress please stop looking up prices every few minutes ...or hours. Not good for your health

Bull... he is excused as he is a real trader and needs to look every second to make a bob (but probably has many anxious moments as well) Gee winner, you spoil all the fun, some days I barely leave the screen when work is quiet, haven't noticed any health deterioration, horses for courses mate.

[winner69]

I'll be one to admit my portfolio gets the regular f5 treatment. Its part of the fun. But its only on the first of every month do i take a serious look and record where each share is at. Hence I have a monthly trail going back decades on my overall positions. And lso why I don't get too anxious - as generally the position improves month on month and if not certainly year on year.

What’s this f5 mini?

Had a friend once whose nick name was f1 - one of her jobs was writing the words that popped up when you pressed f1

Do they still use f1 .....seems to be an icon with a question mark to click on these days

[tzbang]

I think he means 'refresh' ..(F5) keyboard speak

[minimoke]

I think he means 'refresh' ..(F5) keyboard speak
That is correct

[winner69]

I think he means 'refresh' ..(F5) keyboard speak

Does F1 still give you HELP?

I use F5 on my keyboard in excel for ‘Go To’

[minimoke]

Does F1 still give you HELP?No - you have to make your own investment decisions.


I use F5 on my keyboard in excel for ‘Go To’ Try it on a web page (like your share portfolio) - it refreshes it

[couta1]

Us tablet guys don't have all them F keys, just a virtual keyboard, can just sit or lay on the couch all day eating cake whilst attending to market duties.

[dabsman]

Us tablet guys don't have all them F keys, just a virtual keyboard, can just sit or lay on the couch all day eating cake whilst attending to market duties.

I prefer intravenous but if tablets are all that are available then hey why not?

[Joshuatree]

Nicholas Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness should be required reading for all investors. I read it at least once a year (good for long haul flights)

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

This dude covers it off better than we
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/marks-on-taleb-and-the-self-inflicted-anxiety-that-investors-create-for-themselves/

So for a pleasurable life and less moments of anxiety and stress please stop looking up prices every few minutes ...or hours. Not good for your health




Great advice but can you do it; its not in your nature is it w69?. You're the hover fly on here surely.I think im the otherfly for the ASX though.:D

[ratkin]

Maybe we are back to the old scenario where US goes down we go down. US goes up we stay the same

[value_investor]

Would be well advised to wait until Monday when FBU come off their trading halt and bring the markets down even more to load up more on stocks.

Happy days for all those who have some cash saved up on the sidelines.

[Valuegrowth]

The market will be a much more volatile place going forward in overvalued markets. Commodity and bit coin also should follow stocks. In the commodity market, particularly oil could have some correction. There could be pressure on financial and energy stocks. That doesn’t means there are no winners. There will be plenty of winning stocks in global markets. Current situation should create another opportunity for savvy investors provided where they put money. Investors or traders cannot make much money from overextended stocks. Naturally they could have some sell-off in 2018.

[Mickey]

Nicholas Taleb’s book Fooled by Randomness should be required reading for all investors. I read it at least once a year (good for long haul flights)

One good part is how he explains the self anxiety caused by looking at your portfolio too often. The less often you look you get heaps more enjoyable moments (up / gains) than anxious ones (down / losses) ....and when you continually look at your portfolio the chances are that are only a few enjoyable moments than anxious ones.

This dude covers it off better than we
https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/11/marks-on-taleb-and-the-self-inflicted-anxiety-that-investors-create-for-themselves/

So for a pleasurable life and less moments of anxiety and stress please stop looking up prices every few minutes ...or hours. Not good for your health

Bull... he is excused as he is a real trader and needs to look every second to make a bob (but probably has many anxious moments as well)

Well, I tried it. Five hours without checking prices. I'm doing it hard, that's for sure but let's see if I can go a day without checking and then I'll see if I can go longer. Right now though - 2 fingers of Johnny and water to settle in for the evening. Note to self.... don't look at Dow futures tonight before going nigh nighs ... Sleep well Share Trader folks

[Baa_Baa]

Crashes happen in slow motion albeit a lot faster than bull market uptrends, this Bear hasn't even really started yet with the spectacular recovery after the shock falls. Who knows whether it will even be a Bear? Best just to be alert to SP movements. Capital sensitive investors or traders will have a strategy and react accordingly. Buy and Holds (because its a sound company paying dividends regardless of the SP .. yeah right) will take whatever happens, hopefully not up the whatsyamacallit.

[Yoda]

Yes those of us who remember 1987 are more wary. 30 years ago we had time to make up our losses, not enough time left now.
Before 1987 crash, I was making so much, I’d think “what am I am going to do with my money if I take it out of share market” kind of like now, who wants to settle for 3% interest.
I learnt from 1987 that it wasn’t a one day crash, it went on for months and I lost about 75% of my capital.
US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .

[ratkin]

Would be well advised to wait until Monday when FBU come off their trading halt and bring the markets down even more to load up more on stocks.

Happy days for all those who have some cash saved up on the sidelines.

Have had cash patienly waiting on the sidelines for over a year now and am only around 20% in bottom draw stocks. However, rushing back in now could be a big error, it is times like this even more patience is needed, we could be looking at the start of a year long unravelling.
Like Beagle said earlier, and something I agree with is that PEs have been in silly territory for some time and a revision to the historical mean will happen sooner or later. However it could take sometime.

[winner69]

US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .

You’ve been lucky to have been in the market for the last 10 years ... one of the better 10 years in history.

As rankin/beagle say PE ratios could contract to more normal levels ...but usually over shoot on the down side. All this takes years.

Secular bear markets (not price but a cycle of contracting PE ratio) are bad news for investors. Historically market PEs fall below 10 in secular bear markets ...even though the economy and earnings continue to grow.

If we are to have a secular bear returns over the next 10 years will be very low. Some analyst have 10 future returns at close to 0% pa.

Thus Yoda your 10% pa probably won’t happen over the next years and as you hinted you don’t want to lose your hard earned gains. Just do what you think is right with each stock you own and there’s no shame in holding cash.

But then again it may be just a storm in a teacup at the moment — after all Trump has said the market has made a big mistake.

[minimoke]

US markets are down this morning again .
not sure i want to lose 75% ......
im still a few % off my sell limit on most , but i think that will be eroded today . im up 14 % PA av. For the last 10 years . Last year being the best,but not keen to watch it fade away. Im too old to get that back .
Just checked. My US shares are down - but I am still up 25% on where I was a year ago and around 110% on where they were 5 years ago. I am far from panicking.

[bull....]

nzx should start playing catch up shortly

[winner69]

What really is volatility besides being the latest buzzword?

[iceman]

Have had cash patienly waiting on the sidelines for over a year now and am only around 20% in bottom draw stocks. However, rushing back in now could be a big error, it is times like this even more patience is needed, we could be looking at the start of a year long unravelling.
Like Beagle said earlier, and something I agree with is that PEs have been in silly territory for some time and a revision to the historical mean will happen sooner or later. However it could take sometime.

Some would also argue ratkin that it has been a "big error" to be sitting on much cash for the last 12 months while markets have been rallying !

[couta1]

Looks like a good day to get a bit of painting work done on the old fence, I'm 100% in the market now so nothing to do except wait for those nice fat divvies to start rolling in, in the not too distant future.

[Peitro]

If US markets slide further tonight, Monday could be very, very interesting. The NZX50 will get double hit with FBU's (FUBAR) laundry getting further aired.

[skid]

Just checked. My US shares are down - but I am still up 25% on where I was a year ago and around 110% on where they were 5 years ago. I am far from panicking.

Thats a great result--but is that sound logic for future dealings? You may not need it but an escape plan is no shame. right now success comes in 2 scenarios...you will either make money..or not lose money. (sticking to the glass half full frame of mind)

[skid]

You’ve been lucky to have been in the market for the last 10 years ... one of the better 10 years in history.

As rankin/beagle say PE ratios could contract to more normal levels ...but usually over shoot on the down side. All this takes years.

Secular bear markets (not price but a cycle of contracting PE ratio) are bad news for investors. Historically market PEs fall below 10 in secular bear markets ...even though the economy and earnings continue to grow.

If we are to have a secular bear returns over the next 10 years will be very low. Some analyst have 10 future returns at close to 0% pa.

Thus Yoda your 10% pa probably won’t happen over the next years and as you hinted you don’t want to lose your hard earned gains. Just do what you think is right with each stock you own and there’s no shame in holding cash.

But then again it may be just a storm in a teacup at the moment — after all Trump has said the market has made a big mistake.

It may well be a storm in a teacup--after all the whole administration over there is loaded in favor of big business,even at the expense of the people. but if you are sticking to logic I wouldnt put to much faith in your last statement--Trump is guided by ego ,not knowledge--He will say anything to protect it--the stock market is the best performing part of the shaky structure that holds him up (and extends the length of his ''hands'')
Yellen has been at the helm through this whole rise--Trump replaced her simply because she came in under Obama,and shes a Democrat--So he is taking a chance on the new guy because he is a Republican.
Meanwhile do we have faith in Steve Mnuchin to make decisions under pressure if things slide?---Its not a time to completely panic ,but your caution is well founded imo and if things do get hairy then an inexperienced admin. could really bungle things up--Trump will never lose his core group but those hoping for a better deal for their pay packet could see the emperor has no clothes after all.
Theres already alot of anxiety over there as many (majority)look on in disbelief at what is happening --If things start to come unhinged Trump will take more extreme measures --Things happen fast over there so stay tuned.

[Joshuatree]

Looks like 3% plus down on the DOW - 881 pts atp S&P and Nasdaq. DOW transport in correction territory already. Its an across the board unwinding.

[bull....]

wonder if friday, us falls another 3% to touch mondays flash lows

[bull....]

wow massive sell down in last minutes

[Joshuatree]

Below tuesdays intra day low atm down 1000 pts, a rush for the exits on close.

[winner69]

Mark from Craig’s seems pretty happy

Wonder if Mark has experienced a real market ‘correction’ or whatever you want to call it

Mark Lister (@MarkListerNZ)
9/02/18, 10:02 AM
US shares officially in correction territory now. S&P500 closed 3.8% lower, and down 10.2% from the January peak. A much needed shakeout.

[bull....]

Below tuesdays intra day low atm down 1000 pts, a rush for the exits on close.

yes nice healthy correction , we can still fall more and still be plenty good havnt even tested 200 day yet

[winner69]

What really is volatility besides being the latest buzzword?

Chemistry definition seems appropriate .....

........evaporating rapidly

[Joshuatree]

cash is King. Your time has arrives skid?

[couta1]

Yawn, wake me up when the bots and game players have finished their latest round of" Game of Thrones"

[winner69]

Yawn, wake me up when the bots and game players have finished their latest round of" Game of Thrones"

Painting fences is quite fun .....be careful and don't get sunburnt

What colour mate .... darker colours are more volatile (got to use that word more often)

[hardt]

-200,000 new jobs, beating expectations of 177,000.
-Wages grew by 2.9% over the past year, the strongest gain in 8 and a half years... excluding bonuses such as tax reform bonuses given out to millions of workers in the past 2 months.
-The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the lowest rate in 17 years.
-Six states had all-time record-low unemployment rates in December.
And the highlight: Fed is projecting a whopping 5.4% GDP growth rate for the 1st quarter.

I love how ol'yellen said assets are overvalued... seemingly oblivious to what their artificially low interest rates has done over the last 10 years?

As for kiwiland, we are in a good position as well moving forward... OCR staying nice and low :).

[Beagle]

-200,000 new jobs, beating expectations of 177,000.
-Wages grew by 2.9% over the past year, the strongest gain in 8 and a half years... excluding bonuses such as tax reform bonuses given out to millions of workers in the past 2 months.
-The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, the lowest rate in 17 years.
-Six states had all-time record-low unemployment rates in December.
And the highlight: Fed is projecting a whopping 5.4% GDP growth rate for the 1st quarter.

I love how ol'yellen said assets are overvalued... seemingly oblivious to what their artificially low interest rates has done over the last 10 years?

As for kiwiland, we are in a good position as well moving forward... OCR staying nice and low :).




That has to be a genuine concern. Reckless endangerment without even realizing it ? US Federal reserve looking to shrink its balance sheet by many hundreds of billions of dollars in each of the next few years so who is going to fund their deficits and buy their bonds and at what price ? We all know rises in the so called risk free rate (10 year Govt bonds), undermines high PE ratio's. Its starting to look like throwing gasoline on the fire, (massive cut in U.S. corproate tax rate to level's not seen since 1940), was also gross recklessness.

I am increasingly convinced a material global contraction in PE ratio's from pretty lofty level's is on the cards for 2018. This happens either through a series of pullback's or corrections or through a bear market. I am starting to think its the latter and we're in for a very rough next few months.

Note to self : Ensure you have a good supply of blood pressure pills at all times.

[Peitro]

[/FONT]As for kiwiland, we are in a good position as well moving forward... OCR staying nice and low :).


[/COLOR]


Interesting state of play, OCR staying put, mortgage interest rates to increase based on overseas funding, less cash in NZ pockets, low inflation, NZD Down.

Good luck NZRB

[couta1]

Painting fences is quite fun .....be careful and don't get sunburnt

What colour mate .... darker colours are more volatile (got to use that word more often) A nice green colour, quite dark though, speaking of which, my portfolio still in the green courtesy of A2 and HLG(It's had near a couple of hundred k wiped off it's paper value mind you) Reckon I should have just chucked 50% in each of those companies and I would have been real sweet, I hate it when I'm overdiversified(Currently hold 7 stocks)

[Yoda]

You’ve been lucky to have been in the market for the last 10 years ... one of the better 10 years in history.

As rankin/beagle say PE ratios could contract to more normal levels ...but usually over shoot on the down side. All this takes years.

Secular bear markets (not price but a cycle of contracting PE ratio) are bad news for investors. Historically market PEs fall below 10 in secular bear markets ...even though the economy and earnings continue to grow.

If we are to have a secular bear returns over the next 10 years will be very low. Some analyst have 10 future returns at close to 0% pa.

Thus Yoda your 10% pa probably won’t happen over the next years and as you hinted you don’t want to lose your hard earned gains. Just do what you think is right with each stock you own and there’s no shame in holding cash.

But then again it may be just a storm in a teacup at the moment — after all Trump has said the market has made a big mistake.
Thanks for the comments Winner.
i have sold down 1/3 today and yesterday, and feeling less concerned now .
i have kept RYM. SUM THL and a few others with good divs. .
sold most of those with a PE of over 20
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
each to their own.

I suppose it is all about calculated risk..
Time to pick some plums .

[misterx]

These red days make me sick and ill... but to hear couta has lost couple of hundred k makes me feel little better sorry :/
Hopefully this will be all over soon especially for companies like A2 with updates just around the corner.

[minimoke]

These red days make me sick and ill... but to hear couta has lost couple of hundred k makes me feel little better sorry :/
Hopefully this will be all over soon especially for companies like A2 with updates just around the corner.
If you follow history and charts you will see the market always goes onto stronger levels after any crash or correction. If you don't need cash today, and the company's fundamentals haven't changed dont panic.

[hardt]

Anyone remember the rhetoric of September - November 2016?

Tis but another tilt

[couta1]

These red days make me sick and ill... but to hear couta has lost couple of hundred k makes me feel little better sorry :/
Hopefully this will be all over soon especially for companies like A2 with updates just around the corner. Yes, expecting an excellent result and outlook for A2, just stay strong, I've been in this space before, I'm not phased by it.

[skid]

cash is King. Your time has arrives skid?

Gold and property.. and have been well and truly sidetracked for the last year--But it sounds like it has been a good year for most around the shares----Im mostly just an older fart who is in preservation mode while I dabble in other cultures (travel)and stuff like that-....and have gone through a slight readjustment of priorities of late(theres alot going on that transcends mere dollars and cents across the water(Do I need to be a 1%er when many I see over there are Dicks?)--Noah fence to anyone who fits the bill around here)--Young Bucks like Coutts are far more interesting--(surprised you having hired professionals for that fence Coutts with all those spoils!)

[couta1]

Gold and property.. and have been well and truly sidetracked for the last year--But it sounds like it has been a good year for most around the shares----Im mostly just an older fart who is in preservation mode while I dabble in other cultures (travel)and stuff like that-....and have gone through a slight readjustment of priorities of late(theres alot going on that transcends mere dollars and cents across the water(Do I need to be a 1%er when many I see over there are Dicks?)--Noah fence to anyone who fits the bill around here)--Young Bucks like Coutts are far more interesting--(surprised you having hired professionals for that fence Coutts with all those spoils!) I'm feeling good now skid, being a young 56yr old buck, I always believe if you can do something yourself, then do it. Actually I've always lived a frugal lifestyle on the whole and that hasn't changed since my wealth has increased, I enjoy the challenge of the share market first and foremost. PS-I find working with the elderly is always interesting.

[traineeinvestor]

...Im mostly just an older fart who is in preservation mode

That's pretty much where I've been since I retired a few years ago, taking the view that so long as there is more cash coming in than going out, I can ignore the short term pain and view downturns as opportunities to go shopping rather than a reason to panic. That said, if this is the extent of the correction, it's a pretty pathetic one (so far).

[couta1]

NZX 50 down a whole 1%, wow, nothing to see here, move right along.PS-US futures showing green at the moment.

[arc]

The question you need to ask is, why is nzx down that 1%, in that short timeframe. The first step on a slippery ladder may not necessarily be the final destination.

[Scrunch]

NZX 50 down a whole 1%, wow, nothing to see here, move right along.PS-US futures showing green at the moment.

The only problem with this is the U.S. market isn't closing anywhere near where it opens. I thought i saw the futures up at one point yesterday also.

[couta1]

The question you need to ask is, why is nzx down that 1%, in that short timeframe. The first step on a slippery ladder may not necessarily be the final destination. Really, with the Dow down 4.15% and the S&P 3.75%, overnight,I think it shows you how resilient our market is.

[arc]

Dow displaying present business comfort levels.

[arc]

Really, with the Dow down 4.15% and the S&P 3.75%, overnight,I think it shows you how resilient our market is.
Resilient... ?
We have traditionally been slower to respond.. Respond being the key word. As US companies shrink activities the trickle down effect hits us later and lasts much longer. They recover in months, we take years.

[skid]

I'm feeling good now skid, being a young 56yr old buck, I always believe if you can do something yourself, then do it. Actually I've always lived a frugal lifestyle on the whole and that hasn't changed since my wealth has increased, I enjoy the challenge of the share market first and foremost. PS-I find working with the elderly is always interesting.

Just having a dig --Keep up that fence painting (and we have a similar work ethic and demands on life)

[arc]

Really, with the Dow down 4.15% and the S&P 3.75%, overnight

And that was just 1 days trading, what about the other days,

[skid]

Resilient... ?
We have traditionally been slower to respond.. Respond being the key word. As US companies shrink activities the trickle down effect hits us later and lasts much longer. They recover in months, we take years.

Investing in the NZX and the DOW are certainly 2 different animals!--I dont think the US has hit the really slippery bit...just a wake up call in volatility at this stage.---Its interesting how gold has not increased--word is ,its selling to meet stock margin calls.

[arc]

It will be very interesting to see if the trend continues next week, that will be the red flag event. Historically the market recovers after a 4% drop. Will this be the case next week ?, let's hope so.

[arc]

Investing in the NZX and the DOW are certainly 2 different animals!--I dont think the US has hit the really slippery bit...just a wake up call in volatility at this stage.---Its interesting how gold has not increased--word is ,its selling to meet stock margin calls.

Yes, margin calls are another contributor to volatility. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

[arc]

Remembering that the US exchanges have software to limit lemming dives happening in one day. Remember the flash crashes that resulted from poorly designed robot trading...(they still have significant flaws) The exchange can now self regulate such events and if required auto-halt trades for defined time periods. End result, a drawn out decline...

[arc]

Dow. -10% in 9 days

[Bazingaboy]

When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.

[Baa_Baa]

Dow. -10% in 9 days

Still just blowing a bit of froth off the top, albeit big volatile swings this week, they're only just chinning the "correction" bar and far from a 'crash'. Interesting DOW 23860 has provided support twice, bounce once. If the 200 DMA breaks, current 22318, then likely fall all the way to a test of really strong long term support in the range 18500-18350.

Do the maths, for every 1000 points down in the DOW, what that means for the NZX, based on recent moves. Now look at the shares that you like and how they're affected, then finally decide whether riding out a Correction, a Crash or worse, a Bear is better than taking capital off the table and later on buying a whole lot more of the same share when the bottom is in.

Hands up who was actually involved in 87, or the Dot Bomb, or GFC, and what lessons you learnt and will apply now if it unfolds again? I share my lessons every time I mention tightly managing capital, trading momentum and using the charts to monitor sentiment and pick exits and entries.

Corrections are a fact of being in the market, riding out Crashes is optional, they are mean and can disproportionally affect shares held and doing nothing misses the leverage of selling and buying lower, but riding a Bear affects everything and can take years and years and years to recover from.

BAA

[Baa_Baa]

When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.

About 50%. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENZ50/chart?p=%5ENZ50#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW 9kaWNpdHkiOjEsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJjYW5kbGVXaWR0 aCI6NS41NjYzMjY1MzA2MTIyNDUsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ij p0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3NzaGFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hh cnRUeXBlIjoiY2FuZGxlIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJtYX JrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30sImFnZ3JlZ2F0aW9uVHlwZSI6Im9o bGMiLCJjaGFydFNjYWxlIjoibGluZWFyIiwicGFuZWxzIjp7Im NoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiOiJeTlo1MCIs ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwidG9wIjowfX0sInNldFNwYW 4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI6Miwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91 ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZj IiLCJjdXN0b21SYW5nZSI6bnVsbCwic3ltYm9scyI6W3sic3lt Ym9sIjoiXk5aNTAiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIj oiXk5aNTAifSwicGVyaW9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoi bW9udGgiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6bnVsbH 1dLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvbCB1bmRyIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wg dW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcG xheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1l IjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LC JwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJoZWlnaHRQ ZXJjZW50YWdlIjowLjI1LCJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2 hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVt YSwwLG4pIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb2 QiOjUwLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50 aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJVbmRlcmxheSI6ZmFsc2UsImlkIj oi4oCMbWHigIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDAsbikiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi 4oCMbWHigIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDAsbikifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6ey JNQSI6IiMyYmJjZmYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFt ZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4o CMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwLG4pIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0 cyI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOiIyMDAiLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVH lwZSI6InNpbXBsZSIsIk9mZnNldCI6MCwiVW5kZXJsYXkiOmZh bHNlLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwLG4pIiwiZG lzcGxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxtYSwwLG4pIn0sIm91 dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiOiIjMDc4MGViIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcn QiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19 fX0%3D

[mfd]

When the recession hit in 2009, can anybody remember how much % stocks in NZ fell - I'm a relative new investor of two months and I think I've started at the wrong time, especially if there will be another recession. In a space of less than a week, my profit went from 10% to 1.5%.

1.5% in two months is still a little over 9% annualised, nothing to be ashamed of. The 10% was the anomaly, 1.5% is more like what you would normally expect to see. No idea what will happen next, if you couldn't live with losing half your invested money (or more) then reconsider whether the money should be in the market, or be ready to sell at a loss before it reaches that point.

[value_investor]

Between 3:30 and 4:00 of the trading day, the DJIA went down by 400 points which is insane. Not sure if these computers trigger stop losses which trigger chains. Then you have margin debt and margin calls. I read margin debt is at all time times.

I'm not sure where we go from here but just keep in mind this is not a crash yet. We are now at the value it was at, at the end of November. A few calling this one a 'flash crash'. The market is coming back from being overvalued to fairly valued. This is for now a reversion to the mean.

[Valuegrowth]

Dow is following other markets. Best performing markets in 2016 and 2017 are having sell-off as well as volatility.

Performance of some Asian Pacific markets

The Shenzhen Composite Index has dropped by more than 20% from its November high. Pakistan Stock Exchange provided returns of a stunning 46% in 2016.On May 2017, the benchmark KSE-100 index hit all time high. Now it has dropped by more than 10%. In my opinion, bull market has ended in over extended markets like above two and overlooked markets should emerge as bull markets in 2018.

It seems US crude oil is heading back into the $50s and USD is going to strength further. Speculators and other market participants have lost interest on commodities and bit coin as well due to unpredictable nature and losses made by some of them recently. They are unwinding positions to avoid further losses.

Where will have next best opportunities after this sell-off? Which sectors will have more demand?

[fish]

My guess is airlines/aging/health/retirement/electricity.
All these should have good profits,increased demand etc
Cheaper oil will mean more profit for airlines and the aging population travel.
I have not seen anyone cancel travel plans due to what I regard as an irrational sell off by Lemmings.
Next week I will consider buying back into AirNewZealand.
Bought some flights with them last week during the 48 hour sale.I love travelling with them(economy class,the works and choosing good seats)

[Grunter]

Some are reporting that the increased volatility in the markets, especially since Tuesday is due to the breakdown of the sell VIX trade and subsequent liquidation of a couple of leveraged ETFs that are focussed on this trade.

Volatility has mainly been confined to equity markets, not so much in others - in fact there’s starting to be a flight to quality - yields are down across multiple maturities of US treasuries

[Vaygor1]

Hands up who was actually involved in 87, or the Dot Bomb, or GFC, and what lessons you learnt and will apply now if it unfolds again? I share my lessons every time I mention tightly managing capital, trading momentum and using the charts to monitor sentiment and pick exits and entries.

I certainly went through the GFC. Essentially sold nothing, used the fact it existed to buy into some good long termers and top up others. The strategy paid off of course (with the benefit now of hindsight).

With no intention of selling any existing shares in the foreseeable future, the capital worth of my holdings is no more than a curiosity as my entire holdings (bar one small speculative holding) are dividend based.

Just cannot see any market volatility affecting my dividend income stream. If the stock market plummets, which I think is most unlikely, I will be once again presented with the best across-the-board buying opportunity I've had for a long time.

[percy]

I certainly went through the GFC. Essentially sold nothing, used the fact it existed to buy into some good long termers and top up others. The strategy paid off of course (with the benefit now of hindsight).

With no intention of selling any existing shares in the foreseeable future, the capital worth of my holdings is no more than a curiosity as my entire holdings (bar one small speculative holding) are dividend based.

Just cannot see any market volatility affecting my dividend income stream. If the stock market plummets, which I think is most unlikely, I will be once again presented with the best across-the-board buying opportunity I've had for a long time.

Sage advice [as usual].
Very much my thoughts too.

[couta1]

So far the NZX is not in a correction, as it is only down 4.3% since its Jan high, compared to the US markets which are down 10.2% from their highs,sorry to disappoint the naysayers.

[BDL]

Hi Vaygor1.

Just curious, if you never sell any shares, where do you get the new funds to take advantage of the new buying opportunities, or are they funds you have invested elsewhere?

[Cricketfan]

Hi Vaygor1.

Just curious, if you never sell any shares, where do you get the new funds to take advantage of the new buying opportunities, or are they funds you have invested elsewhere?

Other sources of income (salary, dividends etc) plus cash reserves I'm guessing?

[Joshuatree]

.

Not all of us have loads of cash sitting around or want to allocate more funds to stocks to buy the "bargains" later. Judicious trimming, selling dogs,(yes having the cajoles to crystallise a loss), taking some profits and building as much cash as you need to take advantage later. is better than doing nothing and staying in a numb fog. So if anyone hasn't reviewed and balanced and rebalanced their portfolio this volatility is a good catalyst to do so.

On CNBC .USA has re $20trillion in debt and China have bought re $6trillion of it in govt bonds over the years. They dont want to buy anymore. So how does this all unwind in an orderly way?. Another domino is the many $trillions invested in ETF's in the last year or so, what happens when/if there is a run to the exits on these ?

Bull and i saw the Dow range up to 800-1000 points in 10 minutes a few days ago. ALGORHYTMS ARE DETECTING AND FOLLOWING MOMENTUM. Manipulation is here to stay at our expense. Volatility is here for awhile.

Most/all of the big mkts are down 10-12% its uncannily synchronised.

Inflation is starting to rise, watch the USA 10 year bond yields.

Opportunities are always out there in these volatile times to buy stocks which overrun on the downside I bought a couple in the last 2 days for my trading portfolio. Thyme will tell.

There is more fake news out there manipulating sectors eg the lithium sector got hammered recently on misinformation about imminent large lithium production increases.

I hope its a healthy correction. Over half of the NZX is overseas money. Good yield stocks in sectors in strong cycles protect/cushion ones portfolio