Black Monday

[bull....]

currently enjoying the gains on the us markets, up as i speak and looking QUITE CHEAP to me at present on forward cashflows

http://fortune.com/2017/05/26/stock-market-robert-shiller-pe-tech-stocks/

In another rare expression of bullishness from Shiller, he told CNBC (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/24/robert-shiller-with-trump-its-not-hard-to-understand-market-going-up-50-percent.html) this week that stocks "could go up 50% from here."

WOW im in his camp :t_up:



https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryanrich/2017/05/09/buffett-low-rates-make-stocks-dirt-cheap/#6d3e5a4f6fba

The take away, as I said yesterday, "stocks are dirt cheap" if you think rates will stay low for longer

wow im in his camp :t_up:

some famous quotes by another guru

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” Bernard Baruch

“The key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them. This cannot be over emphasized.”
“unless you are a short seller or a poet looking for a wealthy spouse, it never pays to be pessimistic.”
“Golden rule number 18- there is always something to worry about. Avoid weekend thinking and ignore the latest dire predictions of the newscasters. Sell a stock because the company’s fundamentals deteriorate, not because the sky is falling.”

peter lynch read his book

[Hoop]

Media Media :p....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

9129 9130

[BlackPeter]

I guess it is just so easy to create self fulfilling prophecies. And while everybody knows that what goes up must go down - the only really interesting question is when?

Lets face it - none of the market gurus has a clue when this will happen unless they created the self fulfilling prophecy themselves. But hey - most of them have been correct in predicting 10 to 20 out of the last 2 downturns, so that's not a bad score - is it?

But yes, be careful out there .. the bear will come if we stop to worry.

[Hoop]

Nothing to do with self fulfiling prophecies really is there....There's gloom and doom everywhere after the bottom and the market always seems to claw itself up the wall of worry...

Look at it this way the chances of a sharemarket correction from bull to bear increases as the market climbs up off the bottom...Today its a long way off the bottom (300+%) and its been a long time since the bottom (9.5 years) ..I think the chances have got to the stage of being rather high don't you think BP...

The investor herd is getting restless

Call it self fulfiling prophecy or what name you want to call it..it's a natural (cyclical) process, it is hot-wired into our natural survival instincts before birth we can't fight it..we as an educated intelligent animal species can learn how to delay change but can not stop it...we as an animal society will always go from good times to not so good times and back again..animals sense of change becomes stronger as the good times keep rolling along and vice versa....so maybe it's best to learn how to make the best of both worlds and so time it by preparing for those inevitable cyclical change events rather than be in denial and go extinct fighting it..eh

[Fatboyj]

Black Friday - 24/09/1869
Wall St Crash - 24/10/1929 +60 years
Black Monday - 19/10/1987 +58
Black Wednesday - 16/09/1992 +5
911 market crash - 11/09/2001 +9
Financial crisis - 16/09/2008 +7
Big bang(Trump NK) - 09/2017? +9

Mr Trump has had a respite with Harvey coming in to help distract the issues of his presidency. Soon only one option left. War. The great distracter, the great consolidator against the evil NK. When will it kick off?

The dates up above have arrived. I'm thinking rhetoric will build to the end of the month then boom early Oct we have fireworks. My plan of action is to follow WB and be cash ready by at least 3rd week. Then microwave the popcorn, take the radiation fallout pills and watch a lot of news. I'll buy when you guys say its a good time.

[BlackPeter]

Nothing to do with self fulfiling prophecies really is there....There's gloom and doom everywhere after the bottom and the market always seems to claw itself up the wall of worry...

Look at it this way the chances of a sharemarket correction from bull to bear increases as the market climbs up off the bottom...Today its a long way off the bottom (300+%) and its been a long time since the bottom (9.5 years) ..I think the chances have got to the stage of being rather high don't you think BP...

The investor herd is getting restless

Call it self fulfiling prophecy or what name you want to call it..it's a natural (cyclical) process, it is hot-wired into our natural survival instincts before birth we can't fight it..we as an educated intelligent animal species can learn how to delay change but can not stop it...we as an animal society will always go from good times to not so good times and back again..animals sense of change becomes stronger as the good times keep rolling along and vice versa....so maybe it's best to learn how to make the best of both worlds and so time it by preparing for those inevitable cyclical change events rather than be in denial and go extinct fighting it..eh

Absolutely. I don't doubt that we will have another downturn and I agree that the chance for it happening NOW is increasing every day.

And sure - it might be tomorrow (if the dear leader sends his missile or we have another 9/11 or if the Chinese or Greek banking system crashes or if the UK goes down the gurgler or ....) or it might be next year (what a number of experts currently predict) or it might be later. My point is just - if everybody would have moved to cash when they started to predict these downturns around 2012 ... we all would have lost a lot a lot of money since then (by not being in the market) and yes, the downturn would have been in 2012 (just imagine what happens if everybody sells ...).

Being out of the market can be as expensive (or actually more expensive given that the long term trend is upwards) than being in the market. The choice is up to every individual. Only with hindsight will we know who choose better at the time ...

[Joshuatree]

Media Media :p....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

9129 9130

Yes very true Hoop. Like the vampire cannibal squids Goldman Sachs they are totally ruthless about screwing other people legitimately!.

Hows those indicater ducks lining up?. I see Gold having broken through US$1300 oz ($1329.90 atm)is accelerating .

[bull....]

Media Media :p....

I've been around this sharemarket game for 40+ years and I've heard all this Media rubbish before....One thing I have found in the past is their strange ability to find Billions of cash picking up the gems after the bear market carnage ...now tell me how they can do this ..obviously selling up their selective so called "cheap" shares they keep on telling the general public, to fund a war chest to spend at the end of a bear market...There are war chests forming now..to distract the more observant until their war chests are full, they ambiguously infer a continuing "no worries" to the general media and let the general media roll the ball from there.

But their indicator charts tells the real story ...eh.......They are saying USA equity market is not cheap, it's significantly overvalued..now higher than 1929.
The two indicators below are measured using different factors but look at the two chart patterns they are almost identical

EDIT: We can't use an excuse that todays sharemarket is fairly valued because of low inflation (1.7%)..In 1928 the inflation rate was -1.7%

9129 9130

nice indicators but im sure buffett doesnt use them, as with indicators usually in hindsight we find most usually never work anyway
With world gdp beginning to rise after largely being stagnant i guess that means company earnings are set to rise even more.

[kiora]

"Margin Call" the movie on Prime seemed pretty real last night.Give's one real confidence in the Financial Gurus:NOT !

[bull....]

popped above the top of the range 2480 see what happens if it holds range implies impulse move to 2540- 60 ? dyor

[Jay]

Perhaps Monday 25th will be Black Monday in more ways than one, no wait hold on, a certain person could possibly still be deciding on what to do.:confused:

[arc]

Crypto currencies are finally being exposed for their fraud value

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-12/jpmorgan-s-ceo-says-he-d-fire-traders-who-bet-on-fraud-bitcoin


Even High-School kids are inventing them.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/all/


The websites supposedly devoted to reporting the current trading price.. each have a different current price, for the same timeframe of the day...

[Fatboyj]

Excellent story clearly demonstrating how ignorant that guy is and anyone believing that story is, lol he says -- so long as the supply of coins doesn’t surge.

[BlackPeter]

Excellent story clearly demonstrating how ignorant that guy is and anyone believing that story is, lol he says -- so long as the supply of coins doesn’t surge.

So glad you clarified that for us. Surely - the boss of JP Morgan obviously must be a fool and understands nothing about money. We all will trust your expertise on that.

And you are right - this are clever people who create money out of nothing (e.g. by splitting Bitcoin into Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash) and make more money from nothing. Oops - maybe this was an example of what he meant? No - can't be .. he does not understand cryptos and therefore does not know about splits - doesn't he?

The fools however might not be the boss of JP Morgan - I heard he is not paying good money to get nothing. The fools might be the people buying the fast increasing amount of various cryptocurrencies - be they newly invented or created by arbitrary "splits" of existing cryptocurrencies.

I hear they talk about another split ... the miraculous increase of bitcoins - just like Jesus did it with bread and fish. Obviously all without increasing the number of bitcoins :p.

DYOR ... and - if you need a financial experts in this difficult domain - pick them wisely ;);

Discl: Don't hold.

[Fatboyj]

Just pointing out he doesn't know what he's talking about.

[Leftfield]

Excellent story clearly demonstrating how ignorant that guy is and anyone believing that story is, lol he says -- so long as the supply of coins doesn’t surge.

The rejection of Bitcoin by China points to a problem that Bitcoin investors ignore at their peril, i.e.: if Bitcoin wants to move out of the realm of drug dealers, money launderers, speculators and tax evaders then at some stage, it needs government legitimacy.

"In bitcoin’s case, Dimon said he’s skeptical authorities will allow a currency to exist without state oversight, especially if something goes wrong. .....“You just saw in China, governments like to control their money supply.”

(Disc - non holder)

[Snow Leopard]

Excellent story clearly demonstrating how ignorant that guy is and anyone believing that story is, lol he says -- so long as the supply of coins doesn’t surge.


Just pointing out he doesn't know what he's talking about.

I have to say that we are all very impressed with the high level of your counter argument.

Paper Tiger

[Fatboyj]

We have something in common then :D

[Joshuatree]

Are the go to $US currency days coming to an end.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...enezuela-stops-accepting-dollars-oil-payments (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-13/de-dollarization-spikes-venezuela-stops-accepting-dollars-oil-payments)

[moka]

It seems to me that if you focus on what is good for New Zealanders and the economy in general instead of narrow self-interest Labour’s policies do not seem to be the disaster some are predicting. There are more similarities than differences with the two parties.

https://milfordasset.com/category/news/
NZ election impact on financial markets
The risk to the performance of the New Zealand share market is exacerbated by the substantial rise in foreign ownership over the last few years. According to local investment house Forsyth Barr, ownership of New Zealand shares by offshore institutional investors has increased from 30% to almost 50% over the last 5 years.

[Hectorplains]

"Thirty years ago, on Friday, September 18, 1987, the long-standing NZX benchmark index reached an all-time high of 3968.89. This capital index, which is now called the S&P/NZX 50 Index, has never returned to this level and is still 8 per cent below its 1987 high." -

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11922930

"The good news is that most of the negative characteristics of the 1980s - poor quality IPOs, irrational takeovers and debt-fuelled overseas purchases - don't exist today, although companies continue to emphasise normalised or adjusted earnings, instead of figures that are fully compliant with accounting standards."

[value_investor]

There are always jitters around election time and this year is no different. Perhaps more so than other years.

The added spice is that there is a likely change of govt to occur (greater than 50% but not a forgone conclusion). There will be a lot of profit taking in the market, especially this week coming as many will look to position themselves out of the market before the result. Those astute ones might see a few opportunities out there too.

[janner]

There are always jitters around election time and this year is no different. Perhaps more so than other years.

The added spice is that there is a likely change of govt to occur (greater than 50% but not a forgone conclusion). There will be a lot of profit taking in the market, especially this week coming as many will look to position themselves out of the market before the result. Those astute ones might see a few opportunities out there too.

So very true... However it is a stock standard statement issued always during these times..

Have you any information you wish to depart ???

A question ??

[value_investor]

So very true... However it is a stock standard statement issued always during these times..

Have you any information you wish to depart ???

A question ??

The tax plan of Labour on the retirement stocks would be of great detriment. The idea of a CGT, extension of the brightline test on buyers makes them less desirable so selling could be an issue.

The retirement stocks are generally heavily geared due to their capital intensive nature which doesn't help margins either so I imagine a few investors being very nervous. If you have a look at OCA, SUM, ARV, RYM, MET in the past week or month they have all fallen and will may continue too.

This normally means the market reacts as sheep, profit taking happens somewhere (ie retirement stocks), others have second thoughts and also take theirs with them. Case in point ATM falling about 4% from Tuesday onwards.

Its amazing what a bit of sensationalist journalism can also do on fragile mum and dad investors too! Some of the election coverage has been a shocker.

[winner69]

Value_investor .....some on here don't like that term sheep or sheepies

Anyway I don't think mum and dad investors (another horrible generic term) react to much of what they read in the papers. I would hazard a guess the majority just let their investments ride and don't sit down every day and review their portfolio and think shall I sell or hold or buy.

And don't forget that many of these mum and dad investors are lead by what guru analysts / brokers say ....they can be just as sensational as the media in their 'reporting'. even worse have you seen how a 'sensational' broker comment is picked up in the media and made more 'sensational'

[Bjauck]

The tax plan of Labour on the retirement stocks would be of great detriment. The idea of a CGT, extension of the brightline test on buyers makes them less desirable so selling could be an issue.....
If Labour get in for a second term with a detailed tax change policy, what would be the effect on the retirement stocks?

Most retirement village companies intend to keep their real estate for a long time, so I don't think brightline tests would be relevant. Of more relevance would be the tax ruling in relation to ORAs (occupation rights.) Afaik, so far Labour have not said that they intend to over-rule that ruling. Would a change in relation to ORAs become part of future policy of a Labour government, I do not know. If it were, then I think a Labour government may somehow need to provide more funding in some other way to meet the demand for care beds cuurently being provided by the companies relying on profits from the sale and resale of ORAs.

Even if a future Labour Government introduced policies which would result in a fall in real estate values (to more affordable valuations). Medium to long term that would mean that future development costs would be cheaper (not as much capital would be needed to buy land to develop.) The retirement companies are still in growth phase, with much land still needed for development to cater for upcoming tsunami of retiring boomers!

[bull....]

class actions are all being launched against retirement village operators in australia

http://levittrobinson.com/class-actions/aveo-class-action/

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/company/2017/09/13/aveo-group-set-to-face-second-class-action.html

i would imagine retirement village stocks would be caught in the tax net under labour by rule change

[King1212]

Capital gain will not be happening soon..if so..will take years to be implanted

The Green Party wants a capital gains tax in the next term of government and will put that on the table in coalition negotiations with Labour, leader James Shaw says.
He told Sunday's Q&A programme that was one of a number of key items the party wanted when he received Labour leader Jacinda Ardern's first call if she had the opportunity to form a government after next weekend's election.
"In the same way that every coalition involves policies from both partners we've got to negotiate what a coalition agreement would look like but there are a couple of things that I think we would like to push them on - one is the area of a capital gains tax excluding the family home," he said.
"Because we do have a real sense of urgency around the housing crisis."
Mr Shaw's revelation came just days after Ms Ardern backed down on her captain's call to introduce a CGT in her first term if her tax working group suggested one. She went back to the party's former position to take the recommendations to the electorate.
The party's policy, released this week, includes a timeline for the tax working group including passing legislation in 2021 but not having it come into effect until April 2021, after the next election.
"The thing I pushed out is the time it takes effect because that then means I can balance both the urgency I feel with the feedback the public gave me," Ms Ardern said.
But if Labour wants to form a coalition with New Zealand First, leader Winston Peters said a capital gains tax would need to be off the table.
"It's very clear, it's off the table. The two factors are it doesn't work and the second thing is there's no fairness if you haven't got capital losses consideration as well," Mr Peters told Q&A.

[blackcap]

WOW S&P at 2500 and Dow above 22,000. When is this Black Monday coming?

[King1212]

WOW S&P at 2500 and Dow above 22,000. When is this Black Monday coming?

Tomorrow:eek2:

[BlackPeter]

class actions are all being launched against retirement village operators in australia

http://levittrobinson.com/class-actions/aveo-class-action/

http://www.skynews.com.au/business/business/company/2017/09/13/aveo-group-set-to-face-second-class-action.html

i would imagine retirement village stocks would be caught in the tax net under labour by rule change

Your links are just talking about one specific retirement operator: Aveo - why do you use the plural (operators)?

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/retirement-home-operator-aveo-now-faces-a-class-action-from-its-aged-residents-2017-9

Your comments on NZ tax changes appear to be somewhat belated - I assume you missed Jacinda's flip-flop some days ago?

However - if we assume that Labour wins (still a big IF) and if they establish the proposed working group to propose tax changes in 2021 ... What specific tax changes would you see which would damage the retirement sector?

Given that they don't sell their property, but only "right to occupy" am I not clear how any Labour tax changes (like CGT and similar) would effect the retirement villages. Do you envisage a tax on unrealised capital gains? Possible, but political suicide for anybody proposing them - and as well a deathblow to our economy (most individuals and companies would not be able to pay tax on unrealised gains ...).

Could you just help us out with your in-depth understanding of the tax law - or is this just another of your down-ramps?

[bull....]

Your links are just talking about one specific retirement operator: Aveo - why do you use the plural (operators)?

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/retirement-home-operator-aveo-now-faces-a-class-action-from-its-aged-residents-2017-9

Your comments on NZ tax changes appear to be somewhat belated - I assume you missed Jacinda's flip-flop some days ago?

However - if we assume that Labour wins (still a big IF) and if they establish the proposed working group to propose tax changes in 2021 ... What specific tax changes would you see which would damage the retirement sector?

Given that they don't sell their property, but only "right to occupy" am I not clear how any Labour tax changes (like CGT and similar) would effect the retirement villages. Do you envisage a tax on unrealised capital gains? Possible, but political suicide for anybody proposing them - and as well a deathblow to our economy (most individuals and companies would not be able to pay tax on unrealised gains ...).

Could you just help us out with your in-depth understanding of the tax law - or is this just another of your down-ramps?

i imagine labour will make a tax rule up to catch retirement village operators anyway if labour get in and they make a new tax rule share holders collapsing due to there crumbling share prices will benefit from labours other promise to free up hospital space.

[couta1]

i imagine labour will make a tax rule up to catch retirement village operators anyway if labour get in and they make a new tax rule share holders collapsing due to there crumbling share prices will benefit from labours other promise to free up hospital space. You love scaremongering bull, I think you should stick to worrying about Sparks SP not gaining much traction over $3.90 as you seem obsessed by that.

[King1212]

You love scaremongering bull, I think you should stick to worrying about Sparks SP not gaining much traction over $3.90 as you seem obsessed by that.


Tried to create a fear so bull can get in cheaper in retirement stocks:D

[bull....]

Tried to create a fear so bull can get in cheaper in retirement stocks:D

:confused: not me, im telling ya the greens and labour are in playing a very crafty plan labour say no tax and the greens say yes tax , labour can just flip flop again and say they had too to get the green vote.

So those retirement village stocks will be crushed , it will definately be a black monday for these retirement village stocks under a labour/green govt

[couta1]

:confused: not me, im telling ya the greens and labour are in playing a very crafty plan labour say no tax and the greens say yes tax , labour can just flip flop again and say they had too to get the green vote.

So those retirement village stocks will be crushed , it will definately be a black monday for these retirement village stocks under a labour/green govt That's just nonsense and more scaremongering, are Labour and the Greens going to provide the necessary housing and care for the grey tsunami?

[huxley]

:confused: not me, im telling ya the greens and labour are in playing a very crafty plan labour say no tax and the greens say yes tax , labour can just flip flop again and say they had too to get the green vote.

So those retirement village stocks will be crushed , it will definately be a black monday for these retirement village stocks under a labour/green govt



Care make any SP predictions for next Monday? :)

[bull....]

That's just nonsense, are Labour and the Greens going to provide the necessary housing and care for the grey tsunami?

they are not going to stop building villages because they have to pay some tax, just mean less profit for shareholders as the pie will have to be divided more.

[bull....]

Care make any SP predictions for next Monday? :)

this election could go either way , not even my balls can predict this one

[huxley]

Exactly, there's just no way the govt will have the appetite to pick up the tab for the infrastructure needed to solve this issue.

[huxley]

Not just this issue, there are many that need solving. I see some very hard choices having to be made. Either as New Zealanders we collectively grow up and take the hard but responsible and right decisions now, or we all continue going down that slippery slope and become much "less" than what we currently are.

Who ever wins the pick-me govt lottery in a few days time is going to be in a hard place, some parties just manage to cover inconvient truths better than others.

History suggests we'll wait till the country's on the verge of bankruptcy before making a change, AKA 1984 election all over again lol :)

[bull....]

UBS says retirement stocks will get crushed

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/new-zealand-election-and-how-to-play-the-investment-risk.html

[huxley]

UBS says retirement stocks will get crushed

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/new-zealand-election-and-how-to-play-the-investment-risk.html



Might be time to switch into unhedged overseas investments (priced in USD for example), eh?

[blackcap]

Might be time to switch into unhedged overseas investments (priced in USD for example), eh?

Market just keeps rocking along. No end in sight. It really is different this time. We have never had this extended low interest rate environment. This BULL will just keep on keeping on going up. I can feel it in my bones.

[Clints]

Market just keeps rocking along. No end in sight. It really is different this time. We have never had this extended low interest rate environment. This BULL will just keep on keeping on going up. I can feel it in my bones.


Ok Mr Renouf 😊

[couta1]

UBS says retirement stocks will get crushed

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/new-zealand-election-and-how-to-play-the-investment-risk.html HaHa, coming from big time shorters like UBS, pass a Tui.

[BlackPeter]

UBS says retirement stocks will get crushed

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/18/new-zealand-election-and-how-to-play-the-investment-risk.html

... the usual scaremongering from our resident bear.

Here are the relevant citations:


UBS said Thursday there is now a "fair chance" of a change in government and that will put pressure on GDP growth, inflation and the kiwi dollar.


UBS identifies housing-related stocks as at risk from any Labour-led coalition with policy promises to ban the sale of residential property to non-resident foreign buyers and build 10,000 new homes annually.

UBS says any fall in housing would put pressure on the aged care sector and lower economic growth should negatively impact the transportation sector.



OK - so not sure who made them election specialists, but they said there is a "fair chance" of the government to change.

Fair chance is no certainty.

They draw as well a quite long bow from a generally deteriorating economy due to a Labour government to pressure on retirement homes. Their arguments are neither uncontested nor new.

If you want to do something positive - vote National or ACT!

[bull....]

wow - warren buffett says the dow is going to 1 million

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/20/investing/warren-buffett-dow-1-million-100-years/index.html

[Mickey]

Whoever ends up in the govt hot-seat, will very likely have the "End of the bull market" event happen during their watch. This one will be Global.
But given that Planet X is supposed to smash into Earth this weekend and end the world - they shouldn't worry too much about that eh....

[blackcap]

I did not read the article, but if from the header is implying that in 100 years the dow will be at 1 million, well I think it may be a lot further. Lets argue for simplicity's sake that the market doubles every 10 years (it probably does slightly better than that). They there are 10 "doublings" to go in another 100 years. Lets see where that leaves us:

10 40,000
20 80,000
30 160,000
40 320,000
50 640,000
60 1,280,000
70 2,560,000
80 5,120,000
90 10,240,000
100 20,480,000

So one could easily argue that the Dow should be at 20 million in 100 years time :)

[Fatboyj]

It was 100 in 1900 so yea will be 1m in 100 at that rate. I hope to be around to see it, in my robotic form via brain transplant will be spending it on hookers and blow.

[Clints]

It was 100 in 1900 so yea will be 1m in 100 at that rate. I hope to be around to see it, in my robotic form via brain transplant will be spending it on hookers and blow.

I can understand the blow, but in robotic form the hookers maybe a waste of money.

[huxley]

I can understand the blow, but in robotic form the hookers maybe a waste of money.


:confused:... but why would a robot want cocaine?

I love this chart btw, http://thume.ca/indexView/

[Lewylewylewy]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/97139912

Urgh

[Fatboyj]

Ha hilarious, best I get my shovel from the shed and start digging out a fallout shelter in the garden. Play fallout 4. Listen to fallout boy. Argue with my family and fall out(ugh).

[see weed]

Ha hilarious, best I get my shovel from the shed and start digging out a fallout shelter in the garden. Play fallout 4. Listen to fallout boy. Argue with my family and fall out(ugh).
I thought you already had a fallout shelter somewhere between Paeroa and Waihi:).

[Ggcc]

I'm picking New Zealand First mixing with National to form the next government. Only as having to form with other parties may get too messy. I wonder how the markets will react on Monday.

[King1212]

I'm picking New Zealand First mixing with National to form the next government. Only as having to form with other parties may get too messy. I wonder how the markets will react on Monday.

I would rather to see national n green...

[Clints]

I would rather to see national n green...
Not an option according to greens

[Fatboyj]

Nat + NZF is the way it'll go, Winston getting foreign min job, or dep pm with oldies and transport portfolio.

What would be great if Winston was a funny boy is to go with Labour and Greens, but luckily Shaw hates Winston and the feeling is mutual.

[bull....]

sharemarket to fall slightly today i reckon , dollar already falling

[JCM]

What makes you think that? Currency movements look pretty minor. I would have thought that the NZX would go up based on the election results?

[bull....]

What makes you think that? Currency movements look pretty minor. I would have thought that the NZX would go up based on the election results?

uncertainty - winston can pick either party national or labour to form a govt, moral obligation to go with the highest voting party is a myth made up by the media because under mmp you can chose either party that makes up a majority.
lets hope winston chooses the party that is best for nz

[JCM]

The main reason NZF didn't get my vote in the first place.

Even so, surely less uncertainty now than prior to the election. Don't think many were anticipating National to govern alone even after their late resurgence in the polls.

The betting odds mentioned in one of the election threads is approx. 10:1 for a Labour led coalition.

Okay, perhaps some bias on my part as I'd like to see my portfolio get a boost..

[Ggcc]

I wonder if National and NZF did form whether winstons $20 per hour minimum wage would get through within 3 years..? I think raising the minimum wage is a good thing for adults, but then I read also abolishing the "starting out wage" for 16 year old and over so they would earn the adult minimum wage?

[BlackPeter]

I wonder if National and NZF did form whether winstons $20 per hour minimum wage would get through within 3 years..? I think raising the minimum wage is a good thing for adults, but then I read also abolishing the "starting out wage" for 16 year old and over so they would earn the adult minimum wage?

The minimum wage is just another tax on companies. Increasing it is similar (or actually worse) than increasing income taxes and it will only result in increased automation (less human workforce) and / or companies with need of low skilled labour moving offshore. Great outcome.

Left wing politicians did bankrupt the NZ textile industry and other low wage industries in NZ and they are responsible for the demise of many low paid service jobs (like forecourt attendants). I never understand why the Lefties are so keen to push more and more of their "comrades" into unemployment ... but it is probably just to make sure there is always a sufficient numbers of beneficiaries around to vote for them.

We don't need a higher minimum wage - ours is already one of the highest in the world (to be exact the 7th highest minimum wage of all OECD countries: http://money.cnn.com/interactive/economy/top-10-national-minimum-wages-in-the-world/index.html ). We need better qualified people with skills allowing them to compete in the labour market instead of minimum waged and low skilled staff relying on government handouts paid by their employers.

[BlackPeter]

Deloitte's has been Hacked.

Don't they give their clients advise on cybersecurity?

https://www2.deloitte.com/nz/en/pages/risk/solutions/cyber-security-services.html

These guys must be good ...

[value_investor]

The markets are trading at very low volumes this week following an inconclusive result in the election, a lot of wait and see type results happening around the broader market. The index itself is trucking along..

[bull....]

three weeks to find out whos in govt? labour have one big ace up there sleeve i reckon in that they could offer peters prime minister role with condition he steps aside before next election? provide mentoring role for adern during the time , reckon that would seal the deal along with labour being in favour of moving the port.

[BlackPeter]

Well that's interesting, ANZ Bank online is still down.. almost 24 hours ??.

Anyone know of other banks online sites that are down ?

ANZ Internet banking works perfectly fine for me. Maybe you should check your ISP or your computer settings?

[777]

Well that's interesting, ANZ Bank online is still down.. almost 24 hours ??.

Anyone know of other banks online sites that are down ?

Off and on for about 24 hrs but not continually so.

[see weed]

three weeks to find out whos in govt? labour have one big ace up there sleeve i reckon in that they could offer peters prime minister role with condition he steps aside before next election? provide mentoring role for adern during the time , reckon that would seal the deal along with labour being in favour of moving the port.
Very good prediction. Might be Winnies last roll of the dice. Wonder how he get on with the greens? Then again he might run again in 3 years...when he's 75?;) .

[NeverQuestion]

Anyone else sense a sea change around monetary policy?

Some headlines from the last few weeks that make me think this

Trump looking to a more hawkish fed :-

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-30/trump-ramps-up-fed-chair-search-with-decision-due-within-weeks

Bank for England also looking seriously to rate hikes :-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/14/pound-nudges-ahead-key-bank-england-decision/

If there is a spark that will trigger another Black Monday event I think this will be it...

Property markets around the world are way too hot and changes in interest rates will be the real test for the mortgage market

(Fun factoid, NZ was the the one who made 2% inflation target the golden standard - https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/upshot/of-kiwis-and-currencies-how-a-2-inflation-target-became-global-economic-gospel.html?mcubz=0)

[digger]

three weeks to find out whos in govt? labour have one big ace up there sleeve i reckon in that they could offer peters prime minister role with condition he steps aside before next election? provide mentoring role for adern during the time , reckon that would seal the deal along with labour being in favour of moving the port.

Hey that was my idea I put on another posting. I think Winny as PM is a good idea. He has the most experience and Miss Arden is too young to lead the country. She went to school with my youngest daughter. Miss Arden would then be in an experience position if she is 2IC this time.

[JeremyALD]

Hey that was my idea I put on another posting. I think Winny as PM is a good idea. He has the most experience and Miss Arden is too young to lead the country. She went to school with my youngest daughter. Miss Arden would then be in an experience position if she is 2IC this time.

Miss Arden already made a promise that Winston would not be PM. It would be political suicide turning back on that promise.

[mondograss]

But he could be made deputy, and then she gets married, maybe takes some maternity leave...

[BlackPeter]

But he could be made deputy, and then she gets married, maybe takes some maternity leave...

classic ... :lol:

[mondograss]

Well with a bit of good timing he could get 6 months or so as acting PM, it would have to be a bit of a nod and a wink arrangement but it's one last achievement before he retires. Better than being beholden to English who you just know is going to get knifed in the back (probably by Bennett) just like Spud was by Shipley. Winston has seen that movie before and it didn't have a happy ending for him.

[BlackPeter]

Well with a bit of good timing he could get 6 months or so as acting PM, it would have to be a bit of a nod and a wink arrangement but it's one last achievement before he retires. Better than being beholden to English who you just know is going to get knifed in the back (probably by Bennett) just like Spud was by Shipley. Winston has seen that movie before and it didn't have a happy ending for him.

Sure - but tell me about any political movie Winston so far featured in which did have a happy ending for him. It does not matter whomever he picks as his king or queen - it will lead to the demise of NZ First as well as to the destruction of his coalition partner. Some people are just bad luck (at least from a political perspective) and Winston is one of them.

The only option for an happy end I could see in the current constellation would be a Blue-Green coalition. This would even allow Winston to finish his career with what he is doing best - being an outstanding opposition politician. Happy Winston, Happy English, happy environment - and probably even happy Jacinda, who would find the time to turn her party in opposition around and make it ready for government in 2020 or whenever ... and - the Greenies would get next time more votes. I would vote anytime for a truly Green Party able to form a government with both sides of the political spectrum - and I am not alone with that view ...

Not sure, though whether happy ends are these days fashionable ...

[bull....]

greens will never go with national this election they campaigned against them, it would destroy there party and the media and national just whipping up a story about nothing or some other motive.

so the only option is who winston chooses.

if you look back at the history of mmp if you take out the back stabbing and walking the plank under shippley ( who by the way was useless ) it would have been stable govt with boldger and winston , helen clark and winston was stable govt its just a media whip up of BS about winston causing chaos ( the dollar pretty stable , sharemarket good all these dont point to markets being fazed who he picks as both offer stable govt ) .... just stating the facts in my opinion

[mondograss]

greens will never go with national this election they campaigned against them, it would destroy there party and the media and national just whipping up a story about nothing or some other motive.

so the only option is who winston chooses.

if you look back at the history of mmp if you take out the back stabbing and walking the plank under shippley ( who by the way was useless ) it would have been stable govt with boldger and winston , helen clark and winston was stable govt its just a media whip up of BS about winston causing chaos ( the dollar pretty stable , sharemarket good all these dont point to markets being fazed who he picks as both offer stable govt ) .... just stating the facts in my opinion

I agree, the problem both times has been that he's come in at the tail end of a governments natural life and propped them up. But assuming he's thinking of retirement then it's a question of how much he cares about what happens to the party when he's gone. In that regard I suspect he sees Shane Jones as his successor, capable of working either side. But does he give Shane a better chance to succeed by working with Labour\Greens, or with National. I suspect initially at least probably not National.

[bull....]

I agree, the problem both times has been that he's come in at the tail end of a governments natural life and propped them up. But assuming he's thinking of retirement then it's a question of how much he cares about what happens to the party when he's gone. In that regard I suspect he sees Shane Jones as his successor, capable of working either side. But does he give Shane a better chance to succeed by working with Labour\Greens, or with National. I suspect initially at least probably not National.

if shane jones is the successor one day then the port move would have to be an absolute bottom line?

[mondograss]

if shane jones is the successor one day then the port move would have to be an absolute bottom line?

Almost certainly. Labours policy I think is to develop a National Port Strategy rather than to explicitly tell Auckland to move the port, but that could be used to influence the decision and they would probably agree in the interim to doing the rail line to Marsden as long as they could get good high speed passenger services to Whangarei as well (just an extension really of their policy to develop high speed rail through the golden triangle of Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga). Once you have the rail line in place (or at least on the books), then the business case to move the port becomes somewhat stronger. Add in the influence of Goff on the Auckland council and I think it's a much easier policy to swallow for Labour than it is for National.

[BlackPeter]

Almost certainly. Labours policy I think is to develop a National Port Strategy rather than to explicitly tell Auckland to move the port, but that could be used to influence the decision and they would probably agree in the interim to doing the rail line to Marsden as long as they could get good high speed passenger services to Whangarei as well (just an extension really of their policy to develop high speed rail through the golden triangle of Auckland-Hamilton-Tauranga). Once you have the rail line in place (or at least on the books), then the business case to move the port becomes somewhat stronger. Add in the influence of Goff on the Auckland council and I think it's a much easier policy to swallow for Labour than it is for National.

I am sure Geoff would love to lose Ports of Auckland as ratepayer and as big contributor to the Auckland budget as well as one of the largest employees in Auckland. This is clearly a policy any Leftie will jump on - less income and more unemployed people for the town. Great - let's do it!

Just in case you missed the sarcasm ... I know that some politicians are stupid, but not even I would think that Labour is that stupid ... do you?

[bull....]

I am sure Geoff would love to lose Ports of Auckland as ratepayer and as big contributor to the Auckland budget as well as one of the largest employees in Auckland. This is clearly a policy any Leftie will jump on - less income and more unemployed people for the town. Great - let's do it!

Just in case you missed the sarcasm ... I know that some politicians are stupid, but not even I would think that Labour is that stupid ... do you?

why couldnt the 2 ports merge? no one loses any money as shareholding would be relative and the combined port would actually make more money ( divs to ak council and free up all that port land to lease for development providing more revenue stream to ak council).

[BlackPeter]

why couldnt the 2 ports merge? no one loses any money as shareholding would be relative and the combined port would actually make more money ( divs to ak council and free up all that port land to lease for development providing more revenue stream to ak council).

No matter how you construct it ... Auckland might be able to keep some of the divvies. However - if you move the port 170km or so northwards than Auckland will lose the rates - and it will lose the employment. Great recipe for any mayor and government to lose in the next election, but this is what Winnie is best in when he tries to govern (lose at the next election). Problem is just that some voters have to short memories, otherwise we wouldn't have the problem we have now.

Anyway - I reckon his last dance - let's enjoy it and worry about the bills we will have to pay for his idiocies a bit later. It is still funny to see how everybody queues up to become his puppet - and interesting to see how he pulls the strings.

[bull....]

No matter how you construct it ... Auckland might be able to keep some of the divvies. However - if you move the port 170km or so northwards than Auckland will lose the rates - and it will lose the employment. Great recipe for any mayor and government to lose in the next election, but this is what Winnie is best in when he tries to govern (lose at the next election). Problem is just that some voters have to short memories, otherwise we wouldn't have the problem we have now.

Anyway - I reckon his last dance - let's enjoy it and worry about the bills we will have to pay for his idiocies a bit later. It is still funny to see how everybody queues up to become his puppet - and interesting to see how he pulls the strings.

ak gets rates from new tenants on the waterfront and theres plenty of jobs in ak for people who wouldnt want to relocate, dont forget the jobs and business that start up in whangarei etc provide jobs in the up nth and if you develop the horticulture industry and forestry more up nth it would actually be closer to port ,,, everyone seems to be crying over there car imports lol

[BlackPeter]

greens will never go with national this election they campaigned against them, it would destroy there party and the media and national just whipping up a story about nothing or some other motive.

so the only option is who winston chooses.

if you look back at the history of mmp if you take out the back stabbing and walking the plank under shippley ( who by the way was useless ) it would have been stable govt with boldger and winston , helen clark and winston was stable govt its just a media whip up of BS about winston causing chaos ( the dollar pretty stable , sharemarket good all these dont point to markets being fazed who he picks as both offer stable govt ) .... just stating the facts in my opinion

the pressure is mounting:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-greens-consider-national-bill-english-admits-hes-open-minded

[bull....]

the pressure is mounting:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-greens-consider-national-bill-english-admits-hes-open-minded

lol never happen this election

[mondograss]

PoAL isn't the big employer it once was, and the more they automate the less it will be. A lot of the logistics workforce is moving outside of the port footprint at inland terminals etc, none of which really changes if you move the port.

Bull is right, there'd be plenty of more productive things that could be done with that land, it's not exactly making a huge return as it is. Plus just fundamentally the port will one day have to move, it's a matter of when not if. So you spend a lot of money building a new port and associated infrastructure somewhere near Kawakawa Bay, or Manukau Harbour. Or you use Northport. That's basically the choice, you can sneer at it all you like BP, but those are the options. Status quo is not one of them.

[Joshuatree]

the pressure is mounting:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-greens-consider-national-bill-english-admits-hes-open-minded

Pressure sure; tui:t_down:.Just another divide and rule tactic imo, to ignore .

[Ggcc]

I think the greens are too left wing for the New Zealand economy. We (New Zealand)are a needle in a haystack and we are going to tell the world how to behave, or supposedly lead by example.....? I will ring Donald Trump shortly and tell him he needs to change...... I think that will have as much effect. People need to change for most of the green policies to work not legislation.

[bull....]

popped above the top of the range 2480 see what happens if it holds range implies impulse move to 2540- 60 ? dyor

move looking good at the moment from the breakout

[bull....]

made it to the zone almost vertical move , thats a impulse for ya , payrolls tonight then see what happens breather time? maybe. if it kept going vertical then i be worried

[NeverQuestion]

We are now in the 3 month period where every major melt down has happened.

[Clints]

We are now in the 3 month period where the every major melt down has happened.
As Trump would say “the calm before the storm”

[BlackPeter]

So - what are the bets on how next Monday is going? Not sure how good the odds for a Christmas tree coalition (green + red decorated with Winston's baubles) are - but they are after the final result certainly a bit more likely then before.

NZD dropped since the announcement of the final election results a bit more against the USD continuing a downward trend which started basically at election day.

So - currency markets are fearful - what does this mean for the share market? I recon some foreign funds are pulling out of NZ (otherwise the NZD would not drop), i.e. shares should become cheaper. Export based industries should as well benefit from a lower NZD (makes it easier for them to compete internationally) - i.e. mid term many of our companies should do better, unless the Lefties decide to strangle the economy with higher minimum wages and a stronger unions (which is well possible).

Stays interesting, but quite happy I increased recently the cash component of my portfolio. Depending on how this goes - there might be some specials coming up ... and if the new government does not behave their might be better places than NZ for the cash ...

[value_investor]

So - what are the bets on how next Monday is going? Not sure how good the odds for a Christmas tree coalition (green + red decorated with Winston's baubles) are - but they are after the final result certainly a bit more likely then before.

NZD dropped since the announcement of the final election results a bit more against the USD continuing a downward trend which started basically at election day.

So - currency markets are fearful - what does this mean for the share market? I recon some foreign funds are pulling out of NZ (otherwise the NZD would not drop), i.e. shares should become cheaper. Export based industries should as well benefit from a lower NZD (makes it easier for them to compete internationally) - i.e. mid term many of our companies should do better, unless the Lefties decide to strangle the economy with higher minimum wages and a stronger unions (which is well possible).

Stays interesting, but quite happy I increased recently the cash component of my portfolio. Depending on how this goes - there might be some specials coming up ... and if the new government does not behave their might be better places than NZ for the cash ...

The markets have been very resilient to any news in the past 12 months. Considering what we've been through here and abroad so it might just keep trucking along. I know mum and dad investors are very easily shook.

I'm with you on the cash front, mostly because there aren't that many good bargains out there right now as valuations are just crazy.

[kiora]

VIX in USA lowest it has ever been.
Conclusion?Don't know or assume anything

[BlackPeter]

VIX in USA lowest it has ever been.
Conclusion?Don't know or assume anything

Conclusion: still a good time to short the VIX ... though I assume at some stage this won't be true anymore :scared:

[NeverQuestion]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/

[ari]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/indepth/business/1987-stock-market-crash/

30 years on, have we learnt anything? I'm still learning, and can remember that day very clearly. Working in Queen St at the time, I would go and watch the 'chalkies' at least 3 times a day. I took an absolute hammering but only paused a short time before I was back in. There were alot of basket case shares at the time and even today......my 2 picks currently would be Snakk and SeaDragon (which I hold)......nope havn't learnt a bloody thing!!!!!

[Leftfield]

I recall it well too. Earlier in the year I had sold my house and parked all my well-earned in the booming share market while I looked to buy realestate elsewhere. Fortunately I also invested in my first computer and Metastock charting software.

About 10 day's before the crash all the TA signals started going extremely negative. I thought it was a computer error until my lovely other half said, "you've spent so much on this bloody computer, you should take notice of what it says." So I did. Sold 90% of my holdings 5 days before the crash.

Came out with only a small loss (about $20k) when I could have lost it all. Stayed away from the share market since and only re-entered in 2013. Have learned heaps since and still rely on TA (perhaps more than FA.)

This time of year is always a nervous time for me (call me old fashioned!!)

[kiora]

I recall it well too. Earlier in the year I had sold my house and parked all my well-earned in the booming share market while I looked to buy realestate elsewhere. Fortunately I also invested in my first computer and Metastock charting software.

About 10 day's before the crash all the TA signals started going extremely negative. I thought it was a computer error until my lovely other half said, "you've spent so much on this bloody computer, you should take notice of what it says." So I did. Sold 90% of my holdings 5 days before the crash.

Came out with only a small loss (about $20k) when I could have lost it all. Stayed away from the share market since and only re-entered in 2013. Have learned heaps since and still rely on TA (perhaps more than FA.)

This time of year is always a nervous time for me (call me old fashioned!!)

Sounds like a familiar story LF particularly the other halves advice :).
Can you post for us plebs when all the signals do the same again.Thanks in advance.
PS Its not Fri 13 th(today) ,is it?

[Leftfield]

Sounds like a familiar story LF particularly the other halves advice :).
Can you post for us plebs when all the signals do the same again.Thanks in advance.
PS Its not Fri 13 th(today) ,is it?

LOL will do!! That said, this forum being what it is, if I screamed 'SELL', no one would agree with me!!

[Fatboyj]

So strong rumour has it that Bitcoin has a special access "backdoor" in it to allow the person/people who created it to make as many coins for themselves as they want. Perhaps that's why the person/people who created it have never come forward with total proof they are the creators.

Can you link to this, google brings up stories from back in April. And if the rumour is true then damn bring them on its given a 20% just today. $5700 and climbing. Scary, too high too quick, again. Weekend correction imminent.

[bull....]

interesting article shows number of years of positive mths in the s@P 500 since 1928 , just goes to show being in the market is really the only viable option over the long run.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-is-poised-to-make-uncanny-stock-market-historyfor-doing-almost-nothing-2017-10-12

[weasel]

Can you link to this, google brings up stories from back in April. And if the rumour is true then damn bring them on its given a 20% just today. $5700 and climbing. Scary, too high too quick, again. Weekend correction imminent.

Seems like nonsense considering bitcoin core is open source, and thus there can't really be a backdoor as such - the only way this conspiracy could work is if someone knows how elliptical curve DSA is broken or SHA-256 hashing can be cracked (e.g. by use of future quantum computers), and I don't see how this knowledge could be confined to whoever is/are satoshi.

[JBmurc]

VIX in USA lowest it has ever been.
Conclusion?Don't know or assume anything

Yes even a touch lower than it was pre GFC 2007

[Ggcc]

So labour it is. What will happen tomorrow morning. Will the stock markets collapse? I think there will be a market correction at some stage. This maybe the catalyst

[huxley]

Well, I guess I'm happy to have a large overseas allocation...

[whome]

Bye bye nz only listed shares. Hello dual listed & oz shares. Glad I pre-empted.

[bull....]

good for exporters that falling nz dollar , have to wait to hear policy details to make any further comment i reckon

[Sideshow Bob]

So labour it is. What will happen tomorrow morning. Will the stock markets collapse? I think there will be a market correction at some stage. This maybe the catalyst

But Winston already absolved himself of blame......

Tomorrow is 30 years since the Black Tuesday 1987 crash! :scared:

[traineeinvestor]

I remember going down to watch the carnage from the public gallery above the trading floor. It was a memorable if crowded experience. I ended up losing nearly 70% of my life savings - which was painful but I'd rather be schooled in the risks of speculation at age 21 when the amounts are small and i have a career ahead of me than at 51 when it's my retirement savings on the line.

As for the political pole vault to the far left, I'm voting with my wallet. The money I had planned to re-allocate to New Zealand will remain off shore for the time being. At a purely selfish level, a decent drop in the prices of some of our better quality shares and the NZ$ would be welcome.

[tim23]

Far left really centre left I reckon

[Zaphod]

Far left really centre left I reckon

Yes, I agree - but that depends upon the influence the Greens have in the equation, which we won't know definitively for quite some time.

I expect the markets to have some jitters tomorrow, but for long-term holders in quality companies, I can't see anything at this point, which would be cause for alarm.

[value_investor]

The markets about to go on sale!!

[Kay]

I imagine the green party will have as much influence as the collective morning effluent of a small town after an Indian food festival. (No offence to Indian food I greatly enjoy it on the way in)

But if the mood of our new leaders is to reduce the value of the nzd and increase labour costs through reduced immigration....there will be a few companies I will certainly be keeping shy of for now

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/77733-30-years-after-black-monday-a-look-at-its-effects-on-real-estate

30 Years after Black Monday, a Look at Its Effects on Real Estate

[bull....]

popped above the top of the range 2480 see what happens if it holds range implies impulse move to 2540- 60 ? dyor

we reached the target now its chopping around the target area 2540 - 2560 - 70 waiting for time to catch up , overall still very bullish - see what happens

[arc]

Running the numbers on American Corporate spending....
They must have a strong belief in the tooth fairy, and lots of pearly whites to sacrifice.

[Valuegrowth]

Almost month of October is going to end and there is one Monday left for this month.Will there be huge selling in global markets on Monday?

[value_investor]

Almost month of October is going to end and there is one Monday left for this month.Will there be huge selling in global markets on Monday?

I really doubt that, it has been a stellar year for stocks here and worldwide and it will continue in 2017(barring any substantial event occurring).

I am wondering how much more legs this bull market has in 2018. Forward PE's are very high and earnings results in 2018 would be have to incredible for it to continue. A lot of future growth is already baked into a lot of shares in the nzx50 and beyond. I myself have been holding onto cash lately because it is so difficult from a valuation standpoint to put money in at this stage (also don't want to buy for the sake of buying).

"When share prices go up for an extended period of time, eventually people start believing they will always go up, when they go down for an extended period of time, people start believing that they will always be going down"

[blackcap]

I
. I myself have been holding onto cash lately because it "

That is why I feel this time "it is different" and the bull may go on for a whole while longer. We are selling a property shortly and wondering what to do with the money. Bit nervous about equities, but the problem is cash. In the past you could get 6-9% on call with term deposits/bonds or other cash instruments. Now you are lucky to get between 2-4%. The cost of holding cash is a lot larger than in past markets.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Almost month of October is going to end and there is one Monday left for this month.Will there be huge selling in global markets on Monday?

I doubt it ...

[Fatboyj]

All cashed up and nowhere to go.

[Valuegrowth]

What sectors are not immune to any sudden fall in the market? How about great value stocks?Thanks.
I really doubt that, it has been a stellar year for stocks here and worldwide and it will continue in 2017(barring any substantial event occurring).

I am wondering how much more legs this bull market has in 2018. Forward PE's are very high and earnings results in 2018 would be have to incredible for it to continue. A lot of future growth is already baked into a lot of shares in the nzx50 and beyond. I myself have been holding onto cash lately because it is so difficult from a valuation standpoint to put money in at this stage (also don't want to buy for the sake of buying).

"When share prices go up for an extended period of time, eventually people start believing they will always go up, when they go down for an extended period of time, people start believing that they will always be going down"

[value_investor]

That is why I feel this time "it is different" and the bull may go on for a whole while longer. We are selling a property shortly and wondering what to do with the money. Bit nervous about equities, but the problem is cash. In the past you could get 6-9% on call with term deposits/bonds or other cash instruments. Now you are lucky to get between 2-4%. The cost of holding cash is a lot larger than in past markets.

I agree with you 100% on holding cash conundrum. I am just weary of putting into shares just for the sake of it. On the flip side, you have to be realistic and not get too greedy. My portfolio is up double digits on the year and I am contempt to sit on that for now.

Its easy to see everyone outside playing while you're stuck in detention so to speak. However, we are getting to that illogical part of the cycle where valuations are just too high and something has to give. While the money keeping getting pumped in to prop up shares, it might not be the smart money. Keep in mind institutional investors don't make money on idle cash! They make money on transaction costs first and return to their investors second.

PS: Good look on the sale, maybe sell up now and get better prices if/when the new govt bring in their housing policies

[blackcap]

Come on you guys and blackcap come over to a2, we are having a ball over here. Been buying up large since 7.10. There's still time to get in before $10. I sold 20% of my holding on Friday and bought them back today knowing I had made a mistake:). Cost me extra 10c, but who cares, it will be up to $9 before you know it.

Cheers Seeweed :) haha good company, my dad bought some at 10 cents in 2005 so he is sitting very nicely. Bit too late for me on the curve though. No worries, still going to buy equities, might just have to look offshore.

[value_investor]

Black Thursday perhaps??

A lot of negative sentiment including sell offs in some of the larger stocks. Perhaps the left wing government actually getting stuff done (perception is key) and the high NZD affecting a few stocks.

For the first time in a bit I sense less calm in the air..

[dubya]

I've copied this in it's entirety from a Hot Copper Gold mining (RSG) thread. Quite a thought provoking, salient and sober read IMO, so being a lazy Saturday afternoon, thought I would post it here.

" Everyone has there own take on markets and that's what makes them so interesting.

You're happy to buy the stocks that are trending on social media and there is no easier than just sticking to the most talked about stocks on Hot Copper. Ready made winners that sit right there on the left hand side of your HC page (maybe not all. Noticed MUS not travelling so wellhttps://hotcopper.com.au/styles/default/xenforo/clear.png).

I do the swim thru at Rottnest Island every year that I get a chance. My philosophy is there are about 800 to 1000 competitors so I'm already at long odds of being eaten by a shark. I wouldn't feel so comfortable taking the same swim alone every day. So I understand what you and other people are doing but it's not investing. Good investing is about looking out over the ocean of listed companies and going for that swim, with no fear of sharks.

People really don't understand that we are well and truly deep into a fat ugly bubble.

If you don't believe me, read the pre-election words of Donald Trump

" believe me WE ARE IN A BUBBLE right now and the only thing that looks good is the stock market but if you raise interest rates, even a little bit, that's going to come CRASHING DOWN............... WE ARE IN A BIG FAT UGLY BUBBLE and we better be awfully careful and we have a Fed that's doing political things.....this Janet Yellen, of the Fed....the Fed is doing political ....by keeping interest rates at this level and believe me the day Obama goes off and he leaves and he goes out to the golf course for the rest of his life to play golf when they raise interest rates you are going to see some very bad things happen...."

Or do a search for amazon.com on the Nasdaq website.

Amazon traded at an all time high of $1,135/share on Wednesday. Yes you are reading that right you have to pay over a thousand dollars for one share in Amazon.

The consensus recommendation on the Nasdaq website from 18 analyst firms on Amazon is a strong buy.

This stock has risen 3200% in 9 years since its post GFC low of $35 in Nov 2008. That's like about 350% per year!!

I understand that it might have a good business model that's disrupting an old business model around the way that we buy stuff but in the end its profitability still depends on some person at the end of a keyboard or phone clicking the buy button on the purchase of a good or service. Amazon is not immune to people tightening their wallets, just like any other business.

The stock has never paid a dividend and in the quarter just ended (Sept 2017) earned its investors a staggering 50cents/share. On an annualised basis that converts to a PE ratio of 556.5. What does that mean. That means based on Sept quarter earnings it would take 556.5 years or 2,226 quarters of earnings to equal the company's current market value.

Compare that to RSG's 2017 earnings result of 18.61cents/share (fully diluted) or PE ratio of 5.8 on todays price.

Well there are risk and there are risks in markets, you take your pick!!

When analyst are putting strong buy recommendations on stocks that have reached all time highs, that trade on ridiculous PE ratios, that have already risen 3200% in 9 years and that have revenue based on consumer spending in a rising interest rate environment in the US then you know you are on very very shaky ground. Add to this speculative gold stocks that are now worth billions in Canada without a hole being drilled in the ground and booming crypto currencies whose only real value metric could only ever be based on the cost of creating a unit of crypto currency plus a modest premium for their utility and uniqueness over conventional digital currencies and while we are at it why not add in the other latest social media bubble which is a bunch of overvalued lithium miners that are at the mercy of opaque off-take agreements, signed with cartels of downstream battery product producers who themselves will make their money on the rising volume and falling price of LCE, whilst the ASX lithium miners they are now enslaving through the off-take agreements will see declining prices for their LiO2 concentrates as LCE-linked prices fall in response to batteries getting cheaper as their usage increases and more and more mine supply coming online plus a myriad of teething problems with the new mines that investors never factor in. Remember how well GBG ramped up their magnetite mine near Geraldton during the iron ore price boom.....lol

No wonder gold stocks have had their guts sucked out of their backsides when the stock pushers are pushing more and more people into these bubbles just like the metro attendants in downtown Tokyo shove people onto trains to squeeze them in evermore tightly.

The newcomers who think they are very clever riding the bubble and the social media trending bubble stories better make sure they are making fantastic coin right now because this madness can't last forever.

Trump might be promising everyone a merry Christmas in his la la land where debt keeps ballooning and nobody pays a cent of taxes but I'm sure everyone in government knows that with out taxes your ballooning debt is just another bubble and the same people in la la land riding this bubble into the stratosphere will be the one's that fall the furthest and no doubt the people that will be catching the bargains at the bottom will be the smart money that will have rotated out before the fall. Just read that CME are now offering futures on FANG and bitcoin. Here comes the next big short. Esh ""

[Lewylewylewy]

There is a lot of incredible info from some uncredible sources there that I would like to research before investing any credence in those words.

[Lewylewylewy]

Locally, do you guys think Labour's policies will be inflationary or cause recession? Specifically I'm wondering about the increases to minimum wage. My perception is that if companies can handle it, it will cause inflation. If they can't, it will cause recession.

My feeling is that with the remnants of the rock star economy, companies will be ok, but I think it depends what else the Labour government does to damage companies and peoples savings (read house prices).

[arc]

In reality Labour or National, there's very little difference to the real workings of business. Those who complain are most likely whining about tax loop holes being minimised, hence the Panama papers and now the Paradise papers disclosures. Real businesses operate despite what puppets are in residence. If you want a broad view look globally... That saying about America sneezing and NZ catching the flu... All too true.
Nervousness in the market... Look and observe... Carefully

[bull....]

MSCI NEW ZEALAND INDEX microcap november review

additions
bgr
cbl
oca
san
tilt
whs

deleted
pushpay
synlait

fph added to an index and cen also added

[bull....]

markets like the new fed chairman - they have raced to new highs today , looks like the status quo to be maintained with finanacial deregulation added in very bullish when added to tax cuts 2018 could be another good yr.

another 20% yr next yr and it be close to my 30000 target

[bull....]

24000 :t_up: less than 6000 pts to go next yr looking good tax cuts , growing earnings . deregulation another 20% yr get us there

[Blue Horseshoe]

Yes this time it's different, tulips anyone!.

[blackcap]

Interesting, I can remember a big sell off on the night of the election when it looked like D Trump would win in the US. Since then and his subsequent election the Dow has gone from 17,000 to 24,000 in one year. that is a gain of 41.17%. Incredible.

[value_investor]

December is historically the most successful month of the year, looking at averages people normally get the euphoria of the holiday season!

Also an interesting time because a lot of fund managers like to sell out of positions so they can go back to their customers and show off quiet proudly the gains they have made for them. I'm just happy to enjoy the ride!

[bull....]

December is historically the most successful month of the year, looking at averages people normally get the euphoria of the holiday season!

Also an interesting time because a lot of fund managers like to sell out of positions so they can go back to their customers and show off quiet proudly the gains they have made for them. I'm just happy to enjoy the ride!

i dont think the us markets have ever had a negative december , also fund managers run the risk of selling and getting left behind as 2018 looks like it could be another good year of increasing earnings ( the tax cuts add to company earnings nicely ) and at the same time reduce pe ratios so what looks high now ( in some peoples view ) will be lower pe's when tax cuts go thru.
add to that regulation reform , cash repatriation , infrastructure spending , low interest rates , money printing still , earnings could surprise on the upside i reckon.

[macduffy]

i dont think the us markets have ever had a negative december , also fund managers run the risk of selling and getting left behind as 2018 looks like it could be another good year of increasing earnings ( the tax cuts add to company earnings nicely ) and at the same time reduce pe ratios so what looks high now ( in some peoples view ) will be lower pe's when tax cuts go thru.
add to that regulation reform , cash repatriation , infrastructure spending , low interest rates , money printing still , earnings could surprise on the upside i reckon.

I'd add a couple of small caveats to that if the US Fed carries through with its intentions to, first, raise interest rates and second, implement a gradual unwinding of QE. Remember, liquidity is just as important as earnings in influencing shareprices - if not more so.

[bull....]

I'd add a couple of small caveats to that if the US Fed carries through with its intentions to, first, raise interest rates and second, implement a gradual unwinding of QE. Remember, liquidity is just as important as earnings in influencing shareprices - if not more so.

agree with liquidity but euro zone and japan still doing easy money as they are further back than us in recovery more than offsets us buyback.
also fed are worried about arrow yield curve so they may not hike as much as you think , yellen has alluded to this already and more will be said about next year in week or so at fed meeting.

[arc]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11961101

Bitcoin, again.

[Fatboyj]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11961101

Bitcoin, again.

'Or more accurately, 0.01298716 bitcoin. Three hundred dollars worth — because as it turns out, CoinBase, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, sets arbitrary purchase limits on international customers.'

Boohoo article from a crypto investing noob.

[minimoke]

Theres an irony that the main plank for Bitcoin was to make speedy transactions by cutting out the middle man and associated fees

[bull....]

santa rally coming? generally next 2 weeks is favourable time

[janner]

Not sure where to place this..

However I think around minute 47/48 could be relevant to many ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qvz5LS9pIjs&feature=em-subs_digest

Well worth the time to watch the whole video.

[bull....]

what a start to the year for the us, (nz bit soft ) markets still cheap earnings gonna drive it this year ( walmart just the start ) infrastructure bill this year ( really need it ) more regulation relaxation , gdp getting up to 3% , stockmarket 30k , global growth reving up, did ya know even with rates moving up a tad is good for market , rock on , anyway of again this week setting up my new 12 screen trading room.:)

[Fatboyj]

Mr Trump making the stock market great again.

[RGR367]

Mr Trump making the stock market great again.

Ahh, the ****hole-In-Chief. Hail!!

[value_investor]

what a start to the year for the us, (nz bit soft ) markets still cheap earnings gonna drive it this year ( walmart just the start ) infrastructure bill this year ( really need it ) more regulation relaxation , gdp getting up to 3% , stockmarket 30k , global growth reving up, did ya know even with rates moving up a tad is good for market , rock on , anyway of again this week setting up my new 12 screen trading room.:)

A nice sale going on for those who want to get in as they come down a touch. No news coming out of these stocks but I'm guessing the fund managers are cashing in to show their clients what amazing gains they've made them last year.

12 screen trading room sounds like the bloody dream mate.

[bull....]

A nice sale going on for those who want to get in as they come down a touch. No news coming out of these stocks but I'm guessing the fund managers are cashing in to show their clients what amazing gains they've made them last year.

12 screen trading room sounds like the bloody dream mate.

26000 dow ... wow alsome earnings are creaming it ........ i only use 8 mainly , 4 are for rig setup with platform for us markets only

[bull....]

huge wall st day :) good earnings .... great apple news , need more companies doing the same esp manufacturing returning to the us

[Onion]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/100831022/it-is-frankly-scary-world-financial-system-as-stretched-as-before-2008-crash

[macduffy]

I love this thread! Been on "Black Monday" watch since August 2015. Sooner or later, despite this prolonged "Goldilocks" economic phase..........

:mellow:

[blackcap]

I love this thread! Been on "Black Monday" watch since August 2015. Sooner or later, despite this prolonged "Goldilocks" economic phase..........

:mellow:

And whats more... what have the markets done since August 2015... probably the best part of the extended bull we have been on. The Dow for sure...

[Ggcc]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/100831022/it-is-frankly-scary-world-financial-system-as-stretched-as-before-2008-crash


The problem is people have a way to live beyond their means through banks and finance companies. Some people don’t know how to save for tomorrow. Some people don’t want to save for tomorrow as their mentality is “you only live once”.

At the same time it’s people like me that look to ride out the waves and make the most of any opportunity. “The rich get richer” is a saying I hear often by those that don’t save when they are young, or have not saved when they are old. I hope to get wealthy by looking for opportunities and to live within my means.

Also apparently if you have a house and over $100,000 you are fine live comfortably and retire in NZ..........

[huxley]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

“This simple but not simplistic video by Ray Dalio, Founder of Bridgewater Associates, shows the basic driving forces behind the economy, and explains why economic cycles occur by breaking down concepts such as credit, interest rates, leveraging and deleveraging.”

[hardt]

The problem is people have a way to live beyond their means through banks and finance companies. Some people don’t know how to save for tomorrow. Some people don’t want to save for tomorrow as their mentality is “you only live once”.

At the same time it’s people like me that look to ride out the waves and make the most of any opportunity. “The rich get richer” is a saying I hear often by those that don’t save when they are young, or have not saved when they are old. I hope to get wealthy by looking for opportunities and to live within my means.

Also apparently if you have a house and over $100,000 you are fine live comfortably and retire in NZ..........

Really shocking to see people in their late twenties in my circle, all earning at least twice the average wage.

All with mountains of debt from student loans, a lot of them are financing cars well above what they should go anywhere near and some have huge mortgages.

Happy as anything, almost oblivious to the bubble of debt that keeps them afloat... I would hate to see what high interests rates would do to NZ.

[blobbles]

This was a good article today in stuff: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/100831022/it-is-frankly-scary-world-financial-system-as-stretched-as-before-2008-crash

[Lewylewylewy]

That's the stupidest article

[bull....]

its nice to see stories like this all the time, makes me think there is still plenty of unbelievers out there in the rally .... plenty more upside

[peat]

I dont think its totally black out there but I did take a short out on the SP500 last night, it does seem a bit stretched in the short term, pullbacks are healthy.
9435

[NZSilver]

what do you chart with peat??

[bull....]

I dont think its totally black out there but I did take a short out on the SP500 last night, it does seem a bit stretched in the short term, pullbacks are healthy.
9435

well done , i was short the dow for a while got about 50pts before i had to close out due to computer issues missed the following 100 dam '''' had a nice v since then know that im back online

[Ggcc]

Really shocking to see people in their late twenties in my circle, all earning at least twice the average wage.

All with mountains of debt from student loans, a lot of them are financing cars well above what they should go anywhere near and some have huge mortgages.

Happy as anything, almost oblivious to the bubble of debt that keeps them afloat... I would hate to see what high interests rates would do to NZ.

Make people like me who are more careful wealthier

[BobbyMorocco]

Make people like me who are more careful wealthier

Haha, as someone in the same demographic as the people spoken about above, but with zero debt, I cannot wait! ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Colin has a unique style, concise insights supported by FA and TA. His latest is worth a read, and subscribe if you want this in your inbox from time to time. http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php

[peat]

Colin has a unique style, concise insights supported by FA and TA. His latest is worth a read, and subscribe if you want this in your inbox from time to time. http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php
yeh I read his stuff - says says S+P 500 going to 3000. It would be nice if there was a pullback before that :ohmy:

[bull....]

yeh I read his stuff - says says S+P 500 going to 3000. It would be nice if there was a pullback before that :ohmy:


well on our way to 3000 cheap , lower us dollar new catalyst for dow components to head to 30k will boost there earnings massively + tax cuts + new tarriffs

[pak]

what do you chart with peat??
Looks like CMC markets????

[peat]

Looks like CMC markets????
Yes thats right

[bull....]

new highs wall st highs :t_up: wicked really the place to have your money , its being lead by all the sectors not represented on the nzx , sectors negative for the mth in us are utilities, real estate and telcos so can understand nzx relative under performance at this stage of the year.

[value_investor]

Up and down on the nzx50. Markets taking a breather before the rush of results next month. It will be an interesting time to see if the bull run continues as strongly as it was in 2017. A tall order..

[Joshuatree]

Looks like another triple digit fall on the Dow going by the futures in CNBC tonite. Pullback started by the looks.

[bull....]

Looks like another triple digit fall on the Dow going by the futures in CNBC tonite. Pullback started by the looks.


a well overdue fall

[sb9]

a well overdue fall

Probably a good day to stay away from the computer today, might be bit ugly across the board.

[bull....]

Probably a good day to stay away from the computer today, might be bit ugly across the board.

agree, lots of events still to come this week to cause volatility. im watching 3.1 on nz 10yr , 2.9 in aus and 3 in the us .... might be interesting what happens if we go thru these. anyway be time for a nap soon.

[peat]

I dont think its totally black out there but I did take a short out on the SP500 last night, it does seem a bit stretched in the short term, pullbacks are healthy.
9435

this position took a little while, but is now up 40 points.

[bull....]

this position took a little while, but is now up 40 points.

way to go , i put a short on thurs morning ..... well overdue correction

outside bar on the weekly ? very telling

[value_investor]

The DJIA down over 600 points now in a couple days. Been a while since we've seen some fear in the market which is interesting but will likely pass. Funny how everyone agrees corrections are required and acceptable until one happens especially this one with stocks being so overpriced.

I get the impression when things like this happens that people are investing with money they can't afford to lose hence the emotional response.

Does this tip the nzx50 down a bit on Monday?

[fungus pudding]

The DJIA down over 600 points now in a couple days. Been a while since we've seen some fear in the market which is interesting but will likely pass. Funny how everyone agrees corrections are required and acceptable until one happens especially this one with stocks being so overpriced.

I get the impression when things like this happens that people are investing with money they can't afford to lose......



That's the only sort of money there is.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

A few random observations
Caution these may all be in error,
I wonder if bitcoin falling price is one of many factors ... bitcoinlosers realising on stocks to cover positions
Political uncertainty Britain, Eurozone, Trump... impact or Russia investigation and release of current memo news coverage, also inter alia, E&OE I seem to rememember him speaking direct to camera at one of his election rallies asking along these lines "Russia if you listening please deliver HC missing emails" does any one else recall something aong those lines ...
Art Cashin suggests big falls /low volume so far
Record cash flows into stocks in January ...
Successive all time index new highs and favourable company reports
Apple cider post binge remorse
In respect of NZX listed ETF there are low volumes each day, the daily falls over recent days due to low demand seem to exceed that of the underlying index, ie price is based on supply and demand emotions ..

[blackcap]

In respect of NZX listed ETF there are low volumes each day, the daily falls over recent days due to low demand seem to exceed that of the underlying index, ie price is based on supply and demand emotions ..

I could be wrong... but most NZ ETF's (well the NZX ones anyway) have market makers so the price is pretty much the value of the underlying stock....

[bull....]

did anyone notice the dow dropped 666 points ....

[couta1]

did anyone notice the dow dropped 666 points .... Should be a Devil of a Monday then, followed by a Beast of a Wednesday.

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/us-futures-move-lower-as-investors-worry-about-rising-yields.html

[bull....]

Should be a Devil of a Monday then, followed by a Beast of a Wednesday.

lol ill be watching the beast of a wednesday

[winner69]

did anyone notice the dow dropped 666 points ....

Biggest one day fall since sometime in 2016 I heard on telly

What’s happened since that dreadful day?

No worries

But bull.. et al love these big daily swings eh ...I just love the relentless up trend

[iceman]

Biggest one day fall since sometime in 2016 I heard on telly

What’s happened since that dreadful day?

No worries

But bull.. et al love these big daily swings eh ...I just love the relentless up trend

Yellen says fully priced but no bubble. As you'd say winner, NO WORRIES

[percy]

It is at times like this we seek inspiration.
I think we need to go no further than Alfred E Neuman's wise words;"What Me Worry ?"

[janner]

It is at times like this we seek inspiration.
I think we need to go no further than Alfred E Neuman's wise words;"What Me Worry ?"

Ah yes.. The immortal Alfred E Neuman .. A wise man indeed..

[winner69]

From FactSet ....says things are all honky dory

No worries


To date, 50% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2017. In terms of earnings, more companies are reporting actual EPS above estimates (75%) compared to the five-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4.0% above the estimates, which is below the five-year average. In terms of sales, more companies (80%) are reporting actual sales above estimates compared to the five-year average. If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive sales surprises since FactSet began tracking this metric in Q3 2008. In aggregate, companies are reporting sales that are 1.4% above estimates, which is also above the five-year average.

[JeremyALD]

Sometimes I don't understand market panic. The sp500 and Dow are still both higher than they were at the beginning of the year. Before last week they were up 6% for the month of Jan which was ridiculous and needed a pullback

[winner69]

Old saying .... what goes January goes for the year

If US markets up in January then full year up (more than 70% of the time) ......and full year often up 20% plus

No worries

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/best-january-since-1997-bodes-well-for-the-rest-of-the-year.html

[bull....]

Old saying .... what goes January goes for the year

If US markets up in January then full year up (more than 70% of the time) ......and full year often up 20% plus

No worries

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/best-january-since-1997-bodes-well-for-the-rest-of-the-year.html

yea true and another statistic a very good january is usually followed by a bad february

[winner69]

yea true and another statistic a very good january is usually followed by a bad february

So you will be having fun and making heaps then eh bull...

[bull....]

So you will be having fun and making heaps then eh bull...

of course ill be trying , the aim of any investment is to make money isnt it ..... so with a well diversified portfolio one should be able to make money whether the market goes up or down except in years like 1987 2007 etc .

[winner69]

Post Superbowl blues??
( Should only matter in Philly, where there'll be a lot of loosened feathers :(:(:( )

Teams with people orientated names generally beat teams with animal names in Super Bowl they say....so you probably right

[winner69]

Post Superbowl blues??
( Should only matter in Philly, where there'll be a lot of loosened feathers :(:(:( )

If you into NFL (or life in general) this is a sad story ......brilliant piece of writing though

http://www.nola.com/living/index.ssf/2018/02/jackie_wallace_ted_jackson.html#incart_2box_nola_r iver_orleans_news

[winner69]

Apparently as a result of recent tax reforms and business trends, S&P forecast that the EPS of the S&p500 is expected to increase by about 30% in 2018 and then continue even higher in 2019.

And here we are talking about a market collapse

No worries



Makes you wonder how much longer company profits can grow faster than the the whole economy ...but that’s a question for academics and doesn’t matter to the man in the street.

[Joshuatree]

Apparently,huh:lol: Heres another source estimate, and another , take your pick

Wall Street's Rushing to Raise S&P 500 Forecasts for 2018 -

YRI S&P 500 Earnings Forecast - Yardeni Research (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0ahUKEwi8m6mr04vZAhWDgLwKHUPHCekQFgg3MAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Fartic les%2F2017-12-21%2Fwall-street-rushing-to-raise-s-p-500-forecasts-heading-into-2018&usg=AOvVaw2jFvQFgK6z58cI8-UsoFEd)

BloombergUBS raises 2018 S&P 500 forecast, now sees 18% surge - CNBC.com (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwi8m6mr04vZAhWDgLwKHUPHCekQFgg9MAE&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2018%2F01%2F04%2F ubs-raises-2018-sp-500-forecast-now-sees-18-percent-surge.html&usg=AOvVaw1g1qgS0XWE0_Z4S66kCXeZ)

There is always some trumpet blowing contrarian with a 10 second stickleback attention span ,talking up his book and this is just the beginning of the magical cryptomerry tour where conjuring and fake news rule supreme.

[Baa_Baa]

It will unfold tomorrow, one way or the other is immaterial, tight stops.

[couta1]

It will unfold tomorrow, one way or the other is immaterial, tight stops. No stops, it's addition time.

[Raz]

Apparently as a result of recent tax reforms and business trends, S&P forecast that the EPS of the S&p500 is expected to increase by about 30% in 2018 and then continue even higher in 2019.

And here we are talking about a market collapse

No worries



Makes you wonder how much longer company profits can grow faster than the the whole economy ...but that’s a question for academics and doesn’t matter to the man in the street.

The natural balance of a economy is all out of wack, our private business in LA is looking at an estimated 43% increase in bottom line after tax surplus yet their Government balance sheet just keeps kicking it out there collectively. At what point does it just collapse?

[Aaron]

The natural balance of a economy is all out of wack, our private business in LA is looking at an estimated 43% increase in bottom line after tax surplus yet their Government balance sheet just keeps kicking it out there collectively. At what point does it just collapse?

Collapse could be years (decades) away. It doesn't look like a long term sustainable system but Japan's been doing it for a while now. No US govt can reign in debt without being voted out. They need the security of a strong military and police force and they need to increase welfare payments as there is less to share around without taxing the wealthy. Not a lot of options except bigger deficits. A falling US dollar might mean the rest of the world is starting to lose faith except the next three biggest economies (China/Japan/Euro area) are doing the same thing I think. I imagine it will take a long time to happen but whatever happens might happen pretty fast.

A 2% fall in the S & P might extend to 10% before central banks intervene and things will be all rosy again.

[bull....]

nbr has a headline already .............. nz shares to plunge

[ari]

Finally it got here....been a long wait for the thread. Now they can say 'told you so'!

[Balance]

nbr has a headline already .............. nz shares to plunge

Yup - you read it first from The Authority!

[Ggcc]

$14,000,000 turnover so far. Very minuscule so show the 1.4% drop

[Hectorplains]

$14,000,000 turnover so far. Very minuscule so show the 1.4% drop

Yes, more like mousy grey than black

Interestingly it's hitting different sectors here than the US. I was expecting utilities but the bigger decreases are in tech and Ag export stocks.

[winner69]

Big end of town on holiday today ......so not much action

[Hectorplains]

Big end of town on holiday today ......so not much action

How the ASX opens will determine sentiment here. Bigger falls there are likely to have NZX follow suit. I wouldn't be surprised if the current 1.5% ends up at 2.5 - 3% down on the day.

[winner69]

How the ASX opens will determine sentiment here. Bigger falls there are likely to have NZX follow suit. I wouldn't be surprised if the current 1.5% ends up at 2.5 - 3% down on the day.

This could be the time that EFTs cause heaps of trouble ......as managers try to keep things in balance with the indices

[flyer]

yeah, ASX will drop which again will push us down.
Question is, who is topping up?

[bull....]

wall st showing another 200 - 300 pt fall tonight at the moment

[Grimy]

yeah, ASX will drop which again will push us down.
Question is, who is topping up?
I'm looking to. But not getting too excited yet.

[couta1]

I'm looking to. But not getting too excited yet. I've done quite a bit this morning, but with our market closed tomorrow, waiting till Wednesday seems prudent to see where the US heads over the next day or so. PS-A2 not down nearly enough for a top up.

[see weed]

wall st showing another 200 - 300 pt fall tonight at the moment
Didn't think DJ was open on a Sunday.

[Baa_Baa]

Didn't think DJ was open on a Sunday.

DOW Futures

[see weed]

I've done quite a bit this morning, but with our market closed tomorrow, waiting till Wednesday seems prudent to see where the US heads over the next day or so. PS-A2 not down nearly enough for a top up.
Likewise. Was lucky to sell some ATM on Friday and this morning for $16,170 profit:t_up:, but will buy them back at the right price. See how DJ finishes tomorrow. Keeping a hold on HLG for report and div soon.

[winner69]

No panic today — just one of those down days we get occasionally

No worries

[couta1]

No panic today — just one of those down days we get occasionally

No worries Our market didn't have anywhere near as good a Jan as the US, so shouldn't correct as much either.

[Beagle]

Our market didn't have anywhere near as good a Jan as the US, so shouldn't correct as much either.

Yes good point mate. Our market was only just fractionally positive as a result of window dressing on the last day of the month. US markets have only given up half their stellar gains for January at this point. Latest John Ryder newsletter just out today opines that we were probably overdue for "an adjustment" that could lead to a ~ 10% correction but thinks a bear market is unlikely due to the fact that global growth is looking very good right around the world.

[blackcap]

In fact we are only today where we were last week Tuesday. So not even a week of gains lost in today's so called "huge sell off". Not sure what all the fuss is about really.

[bull....]

maybe your get it wednesday?

[JeremyALD]

I had a little laugh when ASB only had three stocks on the entire NZX tab under biggest gains, never seen that before. Certainly was a day better not to look at stock performance!

[Hectorplains]

I had a little laugh when ASB only had three stocks on the entire NZX tab under biggest gains, never seen that before. Certainly was a day better not to look at stock performance!

Down 2.1% on the day. NZH in their daily market report outlines CBL's woes but points out the share price was, "unchanged on the day." You tend to get that... you know, when a stock is in a trading halt.

[dragonz]

I had a little laugh when ASB only had three stocks on the entire NZX tab under biggest gains, never seen that before. Certainly was a day better not to look at stock performance!

And 1 of those 3 shares was the Global Bond Fund up .1% :) Just 2 shares with gains today.

[Kay]

My (nz) portfolio had a good fire sale today... Feels like sensible business

[value_investor]

I've been a bit more selective during the last few months even if it means holding cash, mostly because of the overpriced market. A a few more these days could help. We still haven't moved that much as people have said above.

[fish]

My (nz) portfolio had a good fire sale today... Feels like sensible business

Its days or weeks like this when you find the advantage of reason over emotion.
Actions change your emotions so I behave differently and started a spending spree-bought oceania and mercury at close-they both have dividends soon so even if they go down more it doesnt matter as the dividends keep rolling in and i will keep buying whenever i believe a share offers good value(thanks to margin lending)
Fire sales are not usually good for the seller

[couta1]

Its days or weeks like this when you find the advantage of reason over emotion.
Actions change your emotions so I behave differently and started a spending spree-bought oceania and mercury at close-they both have dividends soon so even if they go down more it doesnt matter as the dividends keep rolling in and i will keep buying whenever i believe a share offers good value(thanks to margin lending)
Fire sales are not usually good for the seller I also bought MCY and OCA during the day, along with more SPK (All good value currently IMO)

[Kay]

Its days or weeks like this when you find the advantage of reason over emotion.
Actions change your emotions so I behave differently and started a spending spree-bought oceania and mercury at close-they both have dividends soon so even if they go down more it doesnt matter as the dividends keep rolling in and i will keep buying whenever i believe a share offers good value(thanks to margin lending)
Fire sales are not usually good for the seller

I'm happy to lose a % or so... Risk management I guess... I don't see it as an emotional response

[Joshuatree]

John Ryders Global newsletter is out and worth reading if anyone is feeling slightly anxious. google it, its free.

[Valuegrowth]

It seems that it is a good time to be a stock picker. In other word it is a good time to avoid over valued stocks and look for overlooked diamonds. There could be more and more sell-off for stocks and commodities. It is unavoidable. Even bonds and bit coins are vulnerable. Making use of credit cards to buy bit coins is not a wise move. It can affect banks as well. Simply, this time is not different. US dollar may strength again. Year of 2018 should be different to 2018. Big drops in overvalued stock markets should happen repeatedly in 2018.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-31/this-time-was-different-no-rotation-to-cushion-equity-downdraft

[peat]

I tend to think in times of market anxiety value is actually less important than quality.

Bonds and bitcoins used in the same sentence is amusing.

[fish]

I'm happy to lose a % or so... Risk management I guess... I don't see it as an emotional response

I understand why you did it along with many others but its not how you make money.
With experience you will get more insight into why you did it rather than guess.
When you said "feels like sensible Business" may of us know you acted on emotion rather than reason.
Thoughts lead to behaviour ,actions emotion, mood and back to thoughts.
You may learn that long-term happiness is influenced by your actions and thinking every day.
I was happy to see coutas post-he has learnt a lot since the days chorus were very cheap.
We all have a lot to learn-and this forum helps -

i learn something most days-so keep on posting and reflecting on what you do

[Joshuatree]

DOW down another 500 points, 2% atm, pretty irrational buying in on a falling mkt imo with lower highs and lowers lows this pullback aint finished yet. And keeping on averaging down can become a shot in the foot ego entrapment.

[tobo]

I does seem that the Dow Jones is taking a breather (currently down 1,000 points in last couple of days; 1,500 (5%) in last week) due to bonds increasing from 2.4 to 2.8% since beginning of year (and 'elevated' market according to Yellen) and concern that potential for inflation could push bonds more.
Our market being closed today makes it interesting, a bit like a trading halt, where you expect the share price to jump up or down on open, faster than you can respond to.
I have been waiting for pullback to buy bargains, but in my January rebalance have have ended up with not that much available cash along with recently purchased PPH and ATM [one, one down :p].
What are people's thoughts on our market being stuck in limbo until tomorrow? Could opening prices be much different from yesterday's close? Will our market follow whatever Aus does today?

[bull....]

if we get another 500 pts tomorrow night us time that be 1000pt drop by wed nz time it will indded be a beast of a wednesday


could be a 1000 today? maybe 2000 on wednesday taht be a 500 pt nzx fall i reckon

[fish]

if we get another 500 pts tomorrow night us time that be 1000pt drop by wed nz time it will indded be a beast of a wednesday


could be a 1000 today? maybe 2000 on wednesday taht be a 500 pt nzx fall i reckon

That would be s good-plenty of good buys as it will not affect dividends of some nz stocks

[Valuegrowth]

Still it is not a big concern for me. Because markets have gone up so far there should be these types of selling. We may see even 5% or 10% drop in global markets. NZ could escape from some big selling thanks to today's holiday.

[bull....]

That would be s good-plenty of good buys as it will not affect dividends of some nz stocks

its a 1000 now tomorrow could be bad as well cause your get margin calls

[bull....]

we updated our call to 2000 down

[Joshuatree]

1500 points now, margin calls.

[couta1]

That would be s good-plenty of good buys as it will not affect dividends of some nz stocks Exactly, and ultimately corporate profitability drives stock prices, and earnings are still growing, this is just a good healthy correction after a hard run up on the US markets mixed with a bit of fear about rising interest rates. Looking forward to spending the rest of my available money tomorrow on some of our excellent divvy paying companies, and hoping like crazy that A2 drops below $8.50(My top up target)

[couta1]

its a 1000 now tomorrow could be bad as well cause your get margin calls That's why I borrow money against the house at a low interest rate to buy stocks, cant get as much as with a margin account, but neither can you get a margin call.