Black Monday

[bull....]

One day we will all wish we had never heard of the share market. That day is not today.


yes loving it, go the dow:t_up: my funds were moved offshore last yr mostly hence my infatuation with the dow lol good timing considering the out performance vrs nz.

listened to trumps speech hit all the right notes.

[huxley]

China cutting growth forecast

[bull....]

what a nice week definitely a black Monday for the bears who used to lurk on this thread. anyway top of the long term channel I have is 21000 at this time. im sure trump will get us there just need a few good tweets

top of the channel was actually just above 21000 as of today compared to the post but we made it last week as the projection move implied guess we are at the top of the channel so we will have to play day to day see what happens.

rough figures below on last 20 weeks performance leading into us election and after US election



Security Name

Close

20 Week %



Dow Transport

9491

18.06



Dow Industrials

21005

15.81



JAPAN

19469.1699

15.50



Russel

1394.13

14.99



GERMANY

12027.3604

13.68



Nasdaq

5870.75

12.59



S&P 500

2383.1201

11.73



FRANCE

4995.1299

11.72



BRAZIL

66800.7422

8.15



Dow Utilities

698

7.06



OIL

53.26

5.93



AUSTRALIA

5729.6001

5.44



LONDON

7374.2598

5.14



CHINA

3218

5.06



INDIA

28832

4.19



EEM

38.19

3.55



HANG SENG

23552.7207

1.37



HYG

87.99

1.30



NEW ZEALAND

7160.8701

0.39



CRB

189.71

0.13



GOLD

1235

-1.36



TLT

119.35

-9.30





NZ not doing to good, could be because of our utility nature but I don't think so as Dow utilities have performed very strong last few weeks.
I think it the upcoming election uncertainty and when you get English say he might change superannuation well that has really caused uncertainty as big changes will surely mean national will lose the election. ( unless maybe it was only changes to migrant rules on receiving super) anyway his vagueness has ensured a lot of uncertainty this yr now.

Heading to the states soon see whats happening - cant wait

[arc]

US stocks fall
S&P declines slightly, 4th day in a row

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-06/yellen-china-and-france-spell-gloomy-asian-start-markets-wrap

[bull....]

the decline this week reinforces the top of the channel marker for the time being

[BullishBear]

Great posts for novices like myself thanks KW.Agreed! Thanks KW!

[bull....]

anniversary of the 8yr bull market today although markets are hardly celebrating or maybe there celebrating by selling a few to feel the cold hard cash in there account.

its now the 2nd longest bull in history I believe

[winner69]

anniversary of the 8yr bull market today although markets are hardly celebrating or maybe there celebrating by selling a few to feel the cold hard cash in there account.

its now the 2nd longest bull in history I believe

Janet has gone well hasn't she

But if history is anything to go by Fed fuelled asset.bubbles have never ended well

But this time is different eh ......might even go for another 8 years

Just keep watching those charts closely .....and be prepared

[arc]

Both the DOW and S&P have been slowly declining since the beginning of the month. Euphoria wearing thin ?

[BlackPeter]

Both the DOW and S&P have been slowly declining since the beginning of the month. Euphoria wearing thin ?

Add to that
- NZX might form a head and shoulders pattern
- ASX just had a double Top and
- rising interest rates (very likely) are typically (at least short term) not good for markets.
- Fear and Greed index still in overdrive (though coming down over the last weeks) and
- Hoop is buying into speculative stocks (referring to the PPH thread) ;)

So - yes, the signals don't look that flash at the moment. Short term I think it is more likely to go keep going down a bit than to keep going up. And mid term? Who knows what will cause the next big drop - North Korea? Greece? China? Trump starting WWIII? Somebody realising that most countries won't be able to repay their debts, particularly in a rising interest rate environment?

What makes me really nervous though, is that for some time nobody seems to predict the end of the financial world as we know it anymore. Are really all the doomsday sayers retired? They have an important task to play ... they keep us on our toes and the markets aware.

[skid]

Add to that
- NZX might form a head and shoulders pattern
- ASX just had a double Top and
- rising interest rates (very likely) are typically (at least short term) not good for markets.
- Fear and Greed index still in overdrive (though coming down over the last weeks) and
- Hoop is buying into speculative stocks (referring to the PPH thread) ;)

So - yes, the signals don't look that flash at the moment. Short term I think it is more likely to go keep going down a bit than to keep going up. And mid term? Who knows what will cause the next big drop - North Korea? Greece? China? Trump starting WWIII? Somebody realising that most countries won't be able to repay their debts, particularly in a rising interest rate environment?

What makes me really nervous though, is that for some time nobody seems to predict the end of the financial world as we know it anymore. Are really all the doomsday sayers retired? They have an important task to play ... they keep us on our toes and the markets aware.

The end of the finacial world as we know it is almost here :):ohmy::ohmy::scared::scared::)

[allfromacell]

Both the DOW and S&P have been slowly declining since the beginning of the month. Euphoria wearing thin ?

Or it's just yet another small dip on a very strong bull, some would say a good entry point.

[BlackPeter]

Or it's just yet another small dip on a very strong bull, some would say a good entry point.

Maybe, maybe not. Depends probably as well on how long the markets still believe that Trump is doing what they all hope he is going to do. In a handful of months (unlikely years) we will all be wiser ....

[Raz]

Or it's just yet another small dip on a very strong bull, some would say a good entry point.

15th March anxiety kicking in, lets see if it comes to much..

[winner69]

15th March anxiety kicking in, lets see if it comes to much..

.......but his time its different

Nothing like 44 BC

[winner69]

15th March anxiety kicking in, lets see if it comes to much..

Fed hiking rates more than expected / election of a Dutch anti-EU leader .....probably other black swans circling above as well

[freebee]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ides-of-march-could-be-a-critical-turning-point-for-the-stock-market-2017-03-11

The 15th of March is my daughters birthday, so for me it has been the 'Ides of March happiness' !

[bull....]

interesting morning tomorrow may set the scene for the year if aunty janet removes the gradual.....

[arc]

Around the smoko table...
The security team responsible for keeping the president safe have been given new orders. Instead of yelling Mr President get down when a threatening event happens they now have to yell Donald...duck

[BlackPeter]

Around the smoko table...
The security team responsible for keeping the president safe have been given new orders. Instead of yelling Mr President get down when a threatening event happens they now have to yell Donald...duck

Well, yes... however only if they don't care about protecting the US constitution ... otherwise they have a conflict of interest whether they really want to warn him :p.

Anyway - this should be stuff for the Donald Duck threat: http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10817-Donald-Trump-How-low-can-you-go

[Hoop]

Around the smoko table...
The security team responsible for keeping the president safe have been given new orders. Instead of yelling Mr President get down when a threatening event happens they now have to yell Donald...duck

nice.......:t_up::D

[arc]

Isnt the announcement at 2:00pm ET their time, 7am tomorrow our time ?

[couta1]

The bears picnic has finished early as US markets shrug off Madam Janet's interest rate announcement. NZX should have a better day.

[bull....]

Aunty Janet was masterful, said all the right things but left wiggle room if necessary

[winner69]

Aunty Janet was masterful, said all the right things but left wiggle room if necessary

Has to keep the ammo ready to piss Trump off when time comes

[Hoop]

One possible scenario is a game of Whack a Mole ..that could be fun to watch.:D

Tax cuts..whack (raise interest rates)
Increased job creation..whack (raise interest rates)
Import restrictions (Tariffs etc)...unknown long term effect (trade barrier retaliation)
Export encouragement..whack (higher US$)
Trump gets pissed off with this game and removes Janet from FED Chairman job...whack..
Quote from CNBC "..."I was confirmed by the Senate to a four-year term, which ends at the end of January of 2018, and it is fully my intention to serve out that term." If Trump removes her from the chair, she could still stay on as a governor until her 14-year term expires in 2024...." (Nov 17, 2016)

[arc]

S&P still declining this morning.
DOW still declining this morning.

both have increased negative vectors since 20th 21st

[bull....]

S&P still declining this morning.
DOW still declining this morning.

both have increased negative vectors since 20th 21st

not surprised to get a fall, the price and time scenario suggested we need a breather.

[BlackPeter]

S&P still declining this morning.
DOW still declining this morning.

both have increased negative vectors since 20th 21st

It didn't happen for some time that the fear & greed index dropped below 50 (neutral) and it is this morning at 36 (indicating that fear starts to control control the markets). Good buying opportunities ahead?

[Hoop]

It didn't happen for some time that the fear & greed index dropped below 50 (neutral) and it is this morning at 36 (indicating that fear starts to control control the markets). Good buying opportunities ahead?

The VIX went up +9.96% today..this may sound alarming but its still at a very low 12.47.. For reference..VIX Under 20 represents a calm market..small anxiety is ~20 ...more serious doubts ~25...a hint of fear ~30...VIX over 30 shows market uncertainty and a degree of fear....

Small supports broke today (minor event) so we shall see what happens tomorrow and if it is a sign of negative things to come.

[winner69]

The VIX went up +9.96% today..this may sound alarming but its still at a very low 12.47.. For reference..VIX Under 20 represents a calm market..small anxiety is ~20 ...more serious doubts ~25...a hint of fear ~30...VIX over 30 shows market uncertainty and a degree of fear....

Small supports broke today (minor event) so we shall see what happens tomorrow and if it is a sign of negative things to come.

VIX at 12.47 implies market will move plus/minus 3.6% in next 30 days

I can live with that - esp if it's up 3.6%

Still very low

No worries

[Hoop]

I'm more worried about the NZX50 technicals

[BlackPeter]

I'm more worried about the NZX50 technicals

Well, yes ... but I am wondering whether this is just an outflow due to the high weight of FBU in the index coupled with the incompetence of FBU board and management rather than a more generic market weakness?

Still - worthwhile watching ...

[couta1]

Well, yes ... but I am wondering whether this is just an outflow due to the high weight of FBU in the index coupled with the incompetence of FBU board and management rather than a more generic market weakness?

Still - worthwhile watching ... Looks more like a movement of overseas money out of our big cap stocks to me, not specific to FBU. Both Rym and SPK have been hit hard over the last week as an example.

[h2so4]

Buy in the dips

[winner69]

Well, yes ... but I am wondering whether this is just an outflow due to the high weight of FBU in the index coupled with the incompetence of FBU board and management rather than a more generic market weakness?

Still - worthwhile watching ...

Technicals may be indicating other things going on

Warehouse downgrade / Fletcher downgrade / Fonterra downgrade guidance

Start if a trend?

ST could be interesting AIR and HBL come out with not so good news

[bull....]

I'm more worried about the NZX50 technicals

breakdown below 7050 would be negative could easily fall another 40pts on the hrlys looking at the bollingers

[huxley]

Looks like local media are calling it http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/world/90722559/comment-this-may-be-the-day-the-trump-trade-died

[arc]

Almost time to start reaching for the coat and car keys.. before the doorway gets crowded

[Hoop]

Almost time to start reaching for the coat and car keys.. before the doorway gets crowded

Where you gonna go??...car keys??...Remember you're on a boat in the deep Pacific....;) .....:D:D
Sorry Arc..couldn't resist myself..

On more serious note..I was 98% "in" now about 80% after today...Started off-loading the ones with any sell signals and taking profits off the table, not hanging around with wait and see when the NZX50 looks dodgy

[JeremyALD]

Where you gonna go??...car keys??...Remember you're on a boat in the deep Pacific....;) .....:D:D
Sorry Arc..couldn't resist myself..

On more serious note..I was 98% "in" now about 80% after today...Started off-loading the ones with any sell signals and taking profits off the table, not hanging around with wait and see when the NZX50 looks dodgy

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

[Baa_Baa]

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

NZX50 is backtesting 200 DMA support, right on the mid-channel of the whole rising trend from post GFC. It is well off it's high of 7585 Sep 2016.

There is so much large foreign money in the NZX who have made a heap of dough on the sustained year-on-year rises +dividends, that will exit on a heartbeat if their profits and capital are threatened. It really doesn't matter how well the actual companies are performing.

Small as it is, the NZX is part of the global markets. Today (last night) some think they saw the Trump bubble get pricked, DOW certainly fell through the steep rising Trump support trend line. Just keep an eye on whether the big international markets get the collywobbles, and if they do, NZX is sure to follow.

[winner69]

Why does the NZX50 look dodgey though? It's been stable around 7000 for a while. A lot of companies are performing well too. The shockers have been because of bad performance, not economic trends?

Even though economy and individual companies might be doing OK market sentiment changes and punters are not prepared to pay elevated multiples - share prices drift down

NZX50C (Capital Index) down almost 10% since October. Thats quite a lot eh

Maybe likely higher interest rates or a factor or maybe aome think the economy has peaked this time around and not going to be so robust in next year or two or as baabaa points out global influences are starting to have a greater impact

[Baa_Baa]

Even though economy and individual companies might be doing OK market sentiment changes and punters are not prepared to pay elevated multiples - share prices drift down

NZX50C (Capital Index) down almost 10% since October. Thats quite a lot eh

Maybe likely higher interest rates or a factor or maybe aome think the economy has peaked this time around and not going to be so robust in next year or two or as baabaa points out global influences are starting to have a greater impact

Good observation winner, the NZX capital index broke down on Monday from the rising trend line Oct 2015 and stopped on the 400 DMA which is close to 50% fib retrace, until today when it went lower. The chart is pretty sick.

Considering that the index isn't a trading instrument per se, maybe Jeremy has a point that some companies have pulled it down, but with a tail wind of international market going off the boil, hoo nose.

[janner]

hoo nose.

One has to hope that it is not " Hooray "..

[JeremyALD]

I just think the NZX50 is still up from this time a year ago by about 10%. The market got way ahead of itself when the NZX was 7500 in September, some shares were completely stretched on PE and things came falling back down to earth during the election. I actually think there's some value in NZX stocks still, especially given good dividend yields which are growing in many companies. I also think around 7000 is fair value for New Zealand stocks and it trending around this level isn't a bad thing IMO. New Zealand is an attractive and pretty safe place to invest your money and interest rates while rising in the US isn't happening quickly.

Interestingly ASX fell 1.5% today and NZX only .3%. The ASX got a much bigger Trump Bump than NZ so in my opinion they are more at risk if / when Trumps policies fail. New Zealand will of course be negatively impacted if that happens too, but I see no reason for panic at the moment locally.

[couta1]

I just think the NZX50 is still up from this time a year ago by about 10%. The market got way ahead of itself when the NZX was 7500 in September, some shares were completely stretched on PE and things came falling back down to earth during the election. I actually think there's some value in NZX stocks still, especially given good dividend yields which are growing in many companies. I also think around 7000 is fair value for New Zealand stocks and it trending around this level isn't a bad thing IMO. New Zealand is an attractive and pretty safe place to invest your money and interest rates while rising in the US isn't happening quickly.

Interestingly ASX fell 1.5% today and NZX only .3%. The ASX got a much bigger Trump Bump than NZ so in my opinion they are more at risk if / when Trumps policies fail. New Zealand will of course be negatively impacted if that happens too, but I see no reason for panic at the moment locally. Nice summary, I've lost count of the number of times the doom merchants have led us to believe we should all run for the hills, both on here and in the media, just sit tight and keep collecting nice divvies, market oscillations, of various sizes will continue to occur as they always have.

[winner69]

Nice summary, I've lost count of the number of times the doom merchants have led us to believe we should all run for the hills, both on here and in the media, just sit tight and keep collecting nice divvies, market oscillations, of various sizes will continue to occur as they always have.

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/03/20/gradual-improvements-go-unnoticed/

[couta1]

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/03/20/gradual-improvements-go-unnoticed/ Every investor should print a few copies of that article out and put it in various places around their house (Start with behind the toilet door)

[BlackPeter]

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/03/20/gradual-improvements-go-unnoticed/

good article, thanks for sharing.

[sb9]

Exactly

Great chart of The Wall of Worry in this article

http://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2017/03/20/gradual-improvements-go-unnoticed/

Nice one winner, thanks for sharing.

[arc]

Originally Posted by arc http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=660171#post660171) Almost time to start reaching for the coat and car keys.. before the doorway gets crowded





Where you gonna go??...car keys??...Remember you're on a boat in the deep Pacific....;) .....:D:D
Sorry Arc..couldn't resist myself..

On more serious note..I was 98% "in" now about 80% after today...Started off-loading the ones with any sell signals and taking profits off the table, not hanging around with wait and see when the NZX50 looks dodgy



Laughing.. good one Hoop

Even water dwellers like dry land sometimes... not too many cafe's out there, mid ocean..
and there's the continuous cycle of replace or repair for the parts that are corroding away.

And I share your sentiment, a slow market extraction process starting, might just be me being paranoid but there appears to be instability creeping into the global market at the moment.

[arc]

My heart goes out to the people in London...

[xafalcon]

It is always easier to look back into the past and assign reasons why something happened, than it is to look into the future and make accurate prediction based on today's knowledge and information

Taking a helicopter view of the world sharemarkets I see

- NZX is a defensive-stock dominated market
- Defensive stocks are great in periods of low growth and uncertainty
- NZX outpaced other markets over the past 5 years for this reason
- PE's have been stretched on many NZ heavyweight stocks (esp the generators) for a while now
- Rising interest rates detract from the profit from holding yield stocks
- The world's developed economies seems to be moving from low/no growth to accelerating growth, and uncertainty appears to be reducing (I ignore the elephant in the [whitehouse] room)
- This is likely to favour growth and manufacturing stocks
- NZX has few growth and manufacturing stocks of any size, and the big one we learnt recently appears to be run by imbeciles
- Dow and many other foreign exchanges are likely to do relatively better than NZX over the coming years
- Money is therefore likely to flow out of NZX into better these performing markets

Just my view of the situation, others will read the "tealeaves" differently I'm sure

[Hoop]

Every investor should print a few copies of that article out and put it in various places around their house (Start with behind the toilet door)

As the Bull market continues to survive well past its average life span and becomes "overvalued", it's increasingly majority dominating participants (investors) worry less about bad news... worry less about averse future...the expectation the market will continue in upward trend because this is a normal event...An extension of rosy forward analysis figures using optimistic recent history events as a (up-) trending baseline...
This optimistic sentiment point of view is reinforced by the herds experiences and knowledge gained from recent history and this is used to heavily criticise the small minority that go against the optimistic herd thinking...If the long term history is adverse to their way of thinking it is dismissed as an event that will not occur in the future as times have changed and it's different now .......(Sign of a matured Bull Market Cycle DOW Theory)

[skid]

It is always easier to look back into the past and assign reasons why something happened, than it is to look into the future and make accurate prediction based on today's knowledge and information

Taking a helicopter view of the world sharemarkets I see

- NZX is a defensive-stock dominated market
- Defensive stocks are great in periods of low growth and uncertainty
- NZX outpaced other markets over the past 5 years for this reason
- PE's have been stretched on many NZ heavyweight stocks (esp the generators) for a while now
- Rising interest rates detract from the profit from holding yield stocks
- The world's developed economies seems to be moving from low/no growth to accelerating growth, and uncertainty appears to be reducing (I ignore the elephant in the [whitehouse] room)
- This is likely to favour growth and manufacturing stocks
- NZX has few growth and manufacturing stocks of any size, and the big one we learnt recently appears to be run by imbeciles
- Dow and many other foreign exchanges are likely to do relatively better than NZX over the coming years
- Money is therefore likely to flow out of NZX into better these performing markets

Just my view of the situation, others will read the "tealeaves" differently I'm sure




Its hard to read tea leaves when you have been sat on by an elephant

[couta1]

US consumer confidence up, oil up, no worries.

[bull....]

nzx holding the 7050 level as mentioned one to watch

[arc]

The man in the hot seat has signed the executive order

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/trump-climate-change-executive-order/

Loss of ice in the Arctic... UP
Larger and more frequent pieces breaking off the Antarctic... UP
Co2 emissions .. UP
Methane levels... UP
Atmospheric pollutants... UP
Confidence levels... UP
Atmospheric OXYGEN levels... DECLINING

In a world where science and research are being ignored or belittled , or both, because they are "inconvenient", our / your children will reap dire and unpleasant rewards.


https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf

[BlackPeter]

The man in the hot seat has signed the executive order

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/trump-climate-change-executive-order/

Loss of ice in the Arctic... UP
Larger and more frequent pieces breaking off the Antarctic... UP
Co2 emissions .. UP
Methane levels... UP
Atmospheric pollutants... UP
Confidence levels... UP
Atmospheric OXYGEN levels... DECLINING

In a world where science and research are being ignored or belittled , or both, because they are "inconvenient", our / your children will reap dire and unpleasant rewards.


https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf

You are right ... this was clearly a black Tuesday for our environment independent from one's view on human made global warming. But don't forget - it was a minority of US voters who decided that this must be the right way to go. They call this democracy ... and I am sure the Trump fanboys are happy that we all will be paying for it.

[skid]

You are right ... this was clearly a black Tuesday for our environment independent from one's view on human made global warming. But don't forget - it was a minority of US voters who decided that this must be the right way to go. They call this democracy ... and I am sure the Trump fanboys are happy that we all will be paying for it.

and even those who voted for Trump didnt necessarily buy in to this (although a large percentage are most likely in the ''me first'' category.

meanwhile if you really want to see the dark side..have a look at this (years of research data deleted by Trump admin)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/28/arctic-researcher-donald-trump-deleting-my-citations

[xafalcon]

Global warming or climate change, whatever it's currently being called, is simply the scientists version of what Y2K was to the computer industry. A pure and simple way of ensuring the funding gravy train continues to flow. Governments are happy to go along with it, as it provides a "reason" for greater control of our everyday lives, ability to tax etc

I applaud Trump for seeing through the faux science that is purported to establish a tenuous link between anything humans are even capable doing and the earth climate. I acknowledge this may be crediting The Don with more intelligence than is justified. But I support his course of action, and hope that NZ will abandon the pointless wastage of time and money trying to fix something that isn't broken

DYOR on the climate change hypotheses and you will quickly see over the 4,500,000,000 year history of the planet

- zero correlation between CO2 levels and earth temperature
- zero correlation between methane levels and earth temperature
- zero correlation between oxygen levels and earth temperature

eg. CO2 levels have risen from 180ppm to 280ppm and this is described at catastrophic. But CO2 levels were as high as 7000ppm in earth history and the world did not end - it flourished

Ice ages have happened when CO2 levels rose, interglacial periods have happened when CO2 levels fall. Glaciers retreat, glaciers grow. The arctic has a permanent icecap, then it doesn't. North even becomes south when the earths magnetic field reverses for no particular reason

CO2 from all this coal and oil being burnt came from where? It came from plants that photosynthetically converted CO2 from the atmosphere (along with H2O) into biomass which was laid down over millennia and slowly transformed into the hydrocarbons we extract today. So we are simply very very slowly returning to the atmosphere what was originally present.......

[Bobdn]

Yes and sea levels haven't risen since 1968.

Anyway, wow can't believe the last two days. It's been a bonanza. Everything is green, green green (except Spark).

[Jantar]

....
- zero correlation between CO2 levels and earth temperature
........
Not true at all. there is a very good correlation between changes in CO2 and changes in temperature, with temperature changes leading CO2 changes by around 800 years.
CO2 levels started increasing around 130 years ago, and around 930 years ago the earth's temperature was rising leading to the MWP. The correlation is maintained.

[allfromacell]

CO2 from all this coal and oil being burnt came from where? It came from plants that photosynthetically converted CO2 from the atmosphere (along with H2O) into biomass which was laid down over millennia and slowly transformed into the hydrocarbons we extract today. So we are simply very very slowly returning to the atmosphere what was originally present.......

No it's not very very slowly. The earth's climate does indeed change over extended periods of time, but what makes our situation different is it's happening at a snap-neck speed.

This is probably a debate for another thread.

[mfd]

Global warming or climate change, whatever it's currently being called, is simply the scientists version of what Y2K was to the computer industry. A pure and simple way of ensuring the funding gravy train continues to flow. Governments are happy to go along with it, as it provides a "reason" for greater control of our everyday lives, ability to tax etc

Fantastic example comparing climate change to Y2K. Y2k could have been disastrous but for the enormous amount of work put in to preparing systems all over the world, and climate change will be a disaster if we don't put in the hard work. Closing your eyes and hoping they go away would be a poor answer to both. Another valid comparison, if sacrifices are made now and climate change does not eventuate, ignorant folk will come out of the woodwork and claim it was wasted effort when in fact a potential catastrophe has been averted.

[Biscuit]

...... So we are simply very very slowly returning to the atmosphere what was originally present.......

And what was "originally present"?

[axe]

Yes Jantar you make a good point that there is correlation with CO2 and temperatures.
However correlation does not equal causation.

There is no reliable scientific data that I have been able to find that can prove the causation of rising c02 and temperatures.
If you have seen any please send me a link and I would love to read it.



Not true at all. there is a very good correlation between changes in CO2 and changes in temperature, with temperature changes leading CO2 changes by around 800 years.
CO2 levels started increasing around 130 years ago, and around 930 years ago the earth's temperature was rising leading to the MWP. The correlation is maintained.

[Jantar]

Yes Jantar you make a good point that there is correlation with CO2 and temperatures.
However correlation does not equal causation.

There is no reliable scientific data that I have been able to find that can prove the causation of rising c02 and temperatures.
If you have seen any please send me a link and I would love to read it.
yes, I have read a paper on it many years ago. Not sure that I can find it now. But basically CO2 solubility in water decreases with increasing temperatures, so as the oceans warm, they emit more CO2. Those same oceans are huge heat sink with around 800 year lag from the drivers. This lag also means that the oceanic effect is moderated to a large extent, so the effect is small and delayed.

[bull....]

The revolution has started

So im thinking first we had stock brokerage firms in the US slash stock trade commissions by up to 50% now we have the biggest active fund manager in the world cutting fees and slashing active manager jobs,

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackrock-funds-idUSKBN16Z2X9

all this following on from perhaps the greatest stock picker of them all Warren buffet suggesting low cost ETF is the way to go now.

Golly gosh those over the top fees we pay here in NZ for brokerage and our hedge fund fees we pay fund managers make this industry in NZ ripe for disruption. Don't fret Not to long to wait technology is making accessing funds anywhere in the world a reality in the not to distant future.

Also for all those folk who are interested in Marijuana investing new ETFS are on the way.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-markets-first-marijuana-themed-etf-could-start-trading-next-week-2017-03-28

This is of interest to me as a emerging industry with huge potential.

[Biscuit]

Yes Jantar you make a good point that there is correlation with CO2 and temperatures.
However correlation does not equal causation.

There is no reliable scientific data that I have been able to find that can prove the causation of rising c02 and temperatures.
If you have seen any please send me a link and I would love to read it.

Hi axe, let me know what you think (but perhaps on a different thread?):

https://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-greenhouse-effect.htm

[dobby41]

Global warming or climate change, whatever it's currently being called, is simply the scientists version of what Y2K was to the computer industry. A pure and simple way of ensuring the funding gravy train continues to flow. Governments are happy to go along with it, as it provides a "reason" for greater control of our everyday lives, ability to tax etc

Y2Y was a hoax?
So nothing was fixed prior to the event?
It is a bit like seeing an increase in crime.
So you put bobbies on the street.
Crime goes down.
So looking at the crime stats now the bobbies are wasted to you put them elsewhere.
Crime goes up.

[skid]

Global warming or climate change, whatever it's currently being called, is simply the scientists version of what Y2K was to the computer industry. A pure and simple way of ensuring the funding gravy train continues to flow. Governments are happy to go along with it, as it provides a "reason" for greater control of our everyday lives, ability to tax etc

I applaud Trump for seeing through the faux science that is purported to establish a tenuous link between anything humans are even capable doing and the earth climate. I acknowledge this may be crediting The Don with more intelligence than is justified. But I support his course of action, and hope that NZ will abandon the pointless wastage of time and money trying to fix something that isn't broken

DYOR on the climate change hypotheses and you will quickly see over the 4,500,000,000 year history of the planet

- zero correlation between CO2 levels and earth temperature
- zero correlation between methane levels and earth temperature
- zero correlation between oxygen levels and earth temperature

eg. CO2 levels have risen from 180ppm to 280ppm and this is described at catastrophic. But CO2 levels were as high as 7000ppm in earth history and the world did not end - it flourished

Ice ages have happened when CO2 levels rose, interglacial periods have happened when CO2 levels fall. Glaciers retreat, glaciers grow. The arctic has a permanent icecap, then it doesn't. North even becomes south when the earths magnetic field reverses for no particular reason

CO2 from all this coal and oil being burnt came from where? It came from plants that photosynthetically converted CO2 from the atmosphere (along with H2O) into biomass which was laid down over millennia and slowly transformed into the hydrocarbons we extract today. So we are simply very very slowly returning to the atmosphere what was originally present.......

There are people who have been paid well for ''selling doubt'' Mostly they have been financed by foundations that generally end up being traced back to elitists like the Koch brothers who have much to gain from the lifting of environmental controls---be careful who you listen to. If you are into following the money ,you are on the wrong track---the big money is with the climate change deniers. 97% of scientists support the fact that man is contributing to environmental change.
Its not a nice feeling to think that one has been 'duped'' but its important to keep an open mind
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/20/merchants-of-doubt-film-exposes-slick-us-industry-behind-climate-denial

[Tomtom]

An informal chat this weekend with someone in property indicates a few New Zealand banks are trying to move retail investment lending off the books.

[Under Surveillance]

An informal chat this weekend with someone in property indicates a few New Zealand banks are trying to move retail investment lending off the books.
Wow, this is dynamite. You should get in touch with Nicky Hager, he could wrap another bestseller around your facts.

[Lewylewylewy]

The banks eagerness to support the latest lvr chance prior to it's mandated implementation date would support this statement.

[Big Blind]

Wow, this is dynamite. You should get in touch with Nicky Hager, he could wrap another bestseller around your facts.

He's already working on his next one. It's all about bears ****ting in the woods, or was it the Pope's suspected links to the Catholic church?

[Big Blind]

He's already working on his next one. It's all about bears ****ting in the woods, or was it the Pope's suspected links to the Catholic church?

In fact, Nicky's got his facts mixed up again and the story is about how the Pope ****s in the woods

[arc]

DOW and S&P both going sideways for the last 5 days, NASDAQ also sideways for the last month.
Tension is building.

[Lewylewylewy]

Meh it'll be fine for a bit yet 😃

[couta1]

Meh it'll be fine for a bit yet  I just tossed a coin 3 times and it came up heads twice, so we should be okay.

[Food4Thought]

I just tossed a coin 3 times and it came up heads twice, so we should be okay.

Agree. Sun came up... the moon went down. People still spending and population expanding....

[arc]

Off topic but not sure where else to put this question. Have googled bonds and fixed interest and yield rates but still not sure about the combo data as displayed below

if a company is selling bonds, samples shown below, and the "coupon" is 5.25% (the interest rate they will pay?) , what is the "offer" column with its displayed % ?

Corporate Bonds




Issuer
Maturity
NZDX Code
Coupon


Rating
Available
Offer


AIA
28/05/2021 (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/ratesheet.aspx?view=term&bond_id=361)
AIA130 (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/quote.aspx?qqsc=AIA130&qqe=NZSE)
5.52%



A-
ref
3.58
%


ANZ
13/03/2019 (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/ratesheet.aspx?view=term&bond_id=324)
Not Listed
6.25%



AA-
ref
2.98
%



25/09/2020 (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/ratesheet.aspx?view=term&bond_id=367)
Not Listed
4.03%



AA-
ref
3.66
%


ASB

08/06/2017 (https://www.anzshareandbondtrading.co.nz/dynamic/ratesheet.aspx?view=term&bond_id=308)
Not Listed
6.06%


AA-
ref
2.40
%

[couta1]

The offer column shows the effective interest rate you will receive by paying the current asking price for said bonds, ie,you are paying a premium to obtain the coupon rate.

[arc]

Thanks Couta
Seems like a duff deal to me then.
Excuse my total ignorance of these things but cant one simply go direct to the source supplier to obtain the full coupon rate?. Does the process involve a middle-man taking a slice of the action ?

[couta1]

Thanks Couta
Seems like a duff deal to me then.
Excuse my total ignorance of these things but cant one simply go direct to the source supplier to obtain the full coupon rate?. Does the process involve a middle-man taking a slice of the action ? Once listed after issue, you can only buy on the secondary market at the offer price. It works basically the same way as shares, you may get them lower or higher than the coupon rate (IPO price if shares) at any given point in time, but in most cases you will pay a premium.

[RTM]

Thanks Couta
Seems like a duff deal to me then.
Excuse my total ignorance of these things but cant one simply go direct to the source supplier to obtain the full coupon rate?. Does the process involve a middle-man taking a slice of the action ?

Yes...that is what I think as well Arc. My advisor wanted a % of my money in bonds. And to buy them on the market. Didn't make sense to me. So I just waited for new issues and bought those so that I did get the coupon rate. The downside was that it took a while to get the appropriate bonds. Also harder to ladder them so they expire at varying times in an orderly way.

[arc]

Yes...that is what I think as well Arc. My advisor wanted a % of my money in bonds. And to buy them on the market. Didn't make sense to me. So I just waited for new issues and bought those so that I did get the coupon rate. The downside was that it took a while to get the appropriate bonds. Also harder to ladder them so they expire at varying times in an orderly way.

Thanks Couta and RTM
Starting to take a broader look at the financial market environment and whats available, for the "just incase scenario".

[stoploss]

Once listed after issue, you can only buy on the secondary market at the offer price. It works basically the same way as shares, you may get them lower or higher than the coupon rate (IPO price if shares) at any given point in time, but in most cases you will pay a premium.
Don't want to be picky Couta , however .
Might be better to qualify you will get them lower or higher than the coupon rate depending on current market interest rates . IE Rates go to 8 % a 5 % coupon will be trading at a discount all things being equal.
The rate they trade at will also be governed by the credit rating or solvency of the entity issuing them .

[RTM]

Hi Blobbles....Link doesn't seem to work. Could you provide a few clues on what to search for please,
Thanks. RTM.


This is a great listen from a very smart guy: http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=201840281

[blobbles]

Hi Blobbles....Link doesn't seem to work. Could you provide a few clues on what to search for please,
Thanks. RTM.

Oops sorry, try this one: http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/201840281/'we-keep-playing-with-fire-but-we-keep-building-the-fire-bigger'

[Baa_Baa]

All this geopolitical nonsense didn't seem to have much effect on the markets today (Shanghai), albeit down a bit. Maybe wars, or pre-wars are good for the markets.

[Lewylewylewy]

All this geopolitical nonsense didn't seem to have much effect on the markets today (Shanghai), albeit down a bit. Maybe wars, or pre-wars are good for the markets.

I'm picking we might see a bit of a plop drop tomorrow. Good buying coming up :)

[JeremyALD]

UK Snap election announced for 8 June. I didn't see that one coming. FTSE100 down 1.4%. Interesting times we live in.

[skid]

UK Snap election announced for 8 June. I didn't see that one coming. FTSE100 down 1.4%. Interesting times we live in.

At least they didnt go the way of Turkey--how 51% of a population could vote for handing a leader a potential dictatorship is beyond me

[blobbles]

At least they didnt go the way of Turkey--how 51% of a population could vote for handing a leader a potential dictatorship is beyond me

Isn't benevolent dictatorship the best form of government? Ataturk was one, a great leader who modernized his country and is remembered as one of the worlds great leaders (there is even a park and memorial named after him on Wellingtons south coast). Erdogan certainly has some big shoes to fill if he heads down the dictator path...

Lee Kuan Yew was also one of the best leaders of modern times, also a benevolent dictator, but his leadership saw Singapore go from a fairly poor state under Malaysia's control to one of the richest countries on the planet and one that bring stability to the region.

[BlackPeter]

Isn't benevolent dictatorship the best form of government? Ataturk was one, a great leader who modernized his country and is remembered as one of the worlds great leaders (there is even a park and memorial named after him on Wellingtons south coast). Erdogan certainly has some big shoes to fill if he heads down the dictator path...

Lee Kuan Yew was also one of the best leaders of modern times, also a benevolent dictator, but his leadership saw Singapore go from a fairly poor state under Malaysia's control to one of the richest countries on the planet and one that bring stability to the region.

Lets put it that way, depending on the maturity level of a country, there are early phases where a benevolent dictatorship is clearly better than a destructive democracy. I agree that both Ataturk as well as Lee Kwan Yew did fit this description and benefited their countries immensely - and there are others, if you look e.g. at the transition of Taiwan or (some decades ago) Spain to democracy.

However - I don't think it is appropriate to mention Erdogan in the same paragraph then the leaders mentioned above. If anybody would have had doubt about his intentions before the so called coup ... the fact that his cleanout of administration and justice started only hours after the so called coup attempt is clear evidence that he orchestrated it. I see him in the same class of beings as the short fat Korean dictator, and he will be up to nothing good for his people. The Turkish economy is already paying for his crimes.

[dobby41]

Indeed - the unfortunate thing about benevolent dictators is that not many are really benevolent!

[bull....]

new highs nasdaq best ever :t_up: dow just breaking out from its consolidation looking good asx should smash 6000 soon i reckon, nzx still underperforming with a slight upside bias

[couta1]

new highs nasdaq best ever :t_up: dow just breaking out from its consolidation looking good asx should smash 6000 soon i reckon, nzx still underperforming with a slight upside bias Yep 2nd big up day in a row in the US. NZX in sleep mode, school holidays not helping, need the big money to get it going, back to school next week in time for sell in May and go away to commence.

[blobbles]

I smell a double top:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ENZ50?ltr=1#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImJv bGxpbmdlclVwcGVyQ29sb3IiOiIjZTIwMDgxIiwiYm9sbGluZ2 VyTG93ZXJDb2xvciI6IiM5NTUyZmYiLCJtZmlMaW5lQ29sb3Ii OiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwibWFjZERpdmVyZ2VuY2VDb2xvciI6IiNmZj diMTIiLCJtYWNkTWFjZENvbG9yIjoiIzc4N2Q4MiIsIm1hY2RT aWduYWxDb2xvciI6IiMwMDAwMDAiLCJyc2lMaW5lQ29sb3IiOi IjZmZiNzAwIiwic3RvY2hLTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIs InN0b2NoRExpbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6Im 1heCJ9

War with NK could be the trigger. It might not happen, but isn't that an almost perfect double top looking graph? Likely I am just seeing what I want to see...

Still, as always, be careful out there...

[Baa_Baa]

I smell a double top:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ENZ50?ltr=1#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImJv bGxpbmdlclVwcGVyQ29sb3IiOiIjZTIwMDgxIiwiYm9sbGluZ2 VyTG93ZXJDb2xvciI6IiM5NTUyZmYiLCJtZmlMaW5lQ29sb3Ii OiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwibWFjZERpdmVyZ2VuY2VDb2xvciI6IiNmZj diMTIiLCJtYWNkTWFjZENvbG9yIjoiIzc4N2Q4MiIsIm1hY2RT aWduYWxDb2xvciI6IiMwMDAwMDAiLCJyc2lMaW5lQ29sb3IiOi IjZmZiNzAwIiwic3RvY2hLTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIs InN0b2NoRExpbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6Im 1heCJ9

War with NK could be the trigger. It might not happen, but isn't that an almost perfect double top looking graph? Likely I am just seeing what I want to see...

Still, as always, be careful out there...

Yes, only 2.82 points difference pretty much a double top, with a gap up week, test of the 2400.98 high, turned away 2398.16 (fail), close 2384.20.

[blobbles]

Yes, only 2.82 points difference pretty much a double top, with a gap up week, test of the 2400.98 high, turned away 2398.16 (fail), close 2384.20.

So any drop below 6881 is an almost sure sign of the end of the bull run. Interesting times...

[BlackPeter]

I smell a double top:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ENZ50?ltr=1#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImJv bGxpbmdlclVwcGVyQ29sb3IiOiIjZTIwMDgxIiwiYm9sbGluZ2 VyTG93ZXJDb2xvciI6IiM5NTUyZmYiLCJtZmlMaW5lQ29sb3Ii OiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwibWFjZERpdmVyZ2VuY2VDb2xvciI6IiNmZj diMTIiLCJtYWNkTWFjZENvbG9yIjoiIzc4N2Q4MiIsIm1hY2RT aWduYWxDb2xvciI6IiMwMDAwMDAiLCJyc2lMaW5lQ29sb3IiOi IjZmZiNzAwIiwic3RvY2hLTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIs InN0b2NoRExpbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6Im 1heCJ9

War with NK could be the trigger. It might not happen, but isn't that an almost perfect double top looking graph? Likely I am just seeing what I want to see...

Still, as always, be careful out there...

No question - we are in a peak rich region and already pretty high up the mountain. Still - until the mist of the future is lifting it is impossible to say whether we reached already the top, or whether this is just a breather before the ascend continues.

Just make sure you don't walk too fast and pay attention to stop before you reach the drop ...

[bull....]

I smell a double top:

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5ENZ50?ltr=1#eyJtdWx0aUNvbG9yTGluZSI6ZmFsc2UsImJv bGxpbmdlclVwcGVyQ29sb3IiOiIjZTIwMDgxIiwiYm9sbGluZ2 VyTG93ZXJDb2xvciI6IiM5NTUyZmYiLCJtZmlMaW5lQ29sb3Ii OiIjNDVlM2ZmIiwibWFjZERpdmVyZ2VuY2VDb2xvciI6IiNmZj diMTIiLCJtYWNkTWFjZENvbG9yIjoiIzc4N2Q4MiIsIm1hY2RT aWduYWxDb2xvciI6IiMwMDAwMDAiLCJyc2lMaW5lQ29sb3IiOi IjZmZiNzAwIiwic3RvY2hLTGluZUNvbG9yIjoiI2ZmYjcwMCIs InN0b2NoRExpbmVDb2xvciI6IiM0NWUzZmYiLCJyYW5nZSI6Im 1heCJ9

War with NK could be the trigger. It might not happen, but isn't that an almost perfect double top looking graph? Likely I am just seeing what I want to see...

Still, as always, be careful out there...

im looking at a chart of nz:nz50 on bigcharts and i dont see any double top formation you suggest we are still 150 odd pts below the previous top so sorry i disagree. In fact im quite bullish the nzx at the moment big support around 6900 resistance around 7500 so any break from the range would be super bullish.
nzx has done well last mth but still is flat last 6mths so is underforming relative to some other markets so plenty of scope to catchup i reckon.

enough crystalball gazing time to go make some money

[Leftfield]

im looking at a chart of nz:nz50 on bigcharts and i dont see any double top formation you suggest we are still 150 odd pts below the previous top so sorry i disagree. In fact im quite bullish the nzx at the moment big support around 6900 resistance around 7500 so any break from the range would be super bullish.
nzx has done well last mth but still is flat last 6mths so is underforming relative to some other markets so plenty of scope to catchup i reckon.

enough crystalball gazing time to go make some money

Well said Bull. I agree.

[Baa_Baa]

im looking at a chart of nz:nz50 on bigcharts and i dont see any double top formation you suggest we are still 150 odd pts below the previous top so sorry i disagree. In fact im quite bullish the nzx at the moment big support around 6900 resistance around 7500 so any break from the range would be super bullish.
nzx has done well last mth but still is flat last 6mths so is underforming relative to some other markets so plenty of scope to catchup i reckon.

enough crystalball gazing time to go make some money

Did you check bobbles link? It was to the SP500, which is a double top. Not to the NZX50, which is well off previous highs.

[Hoop]

It's been a long party (8 years and still counting) and now everyone's drunk and lost their sense of reality...

You don't believe me....."Everyone" (as a collective) drives Markets, so therefore one would expect sometime during each day their would be differing sentiment which would create a little bit of volatility...Notice this last 12 months, many candlesticks are starting to look like horizontal lines..very unusual!!!.

Look at the VIX... many commentators in the past said that in theory the VIX can go well below 10 but in practice it can only go very briefly below 10 and that would be a very rare occurrence..all to do they say with the diverse number of buyers/sellers all having differing opinions and sentiments on the day..

Hmmmmmm and all this is happening with a geriatric bull that in theory should be "balls up" by now...

OK so what's happened?????....

I don't know but in searching I have found some scary stuff....(We) everyone is in unison and there's hardly any volatile movements.. In theory that means everyone is acting together..In Chaos Theory...that's a system which is in total harmony (the extreme opposite to Chaos)..In theory this behaviour is possible but in practice within a free market environment it is very rare ...unless....my thoughts only...that the dominant players at this certain period of time are very large agents for a variety of similar collectives acting responsible (so not to overheat the market) but having a huge amount of "available money" to spend somewhere..eg passive fund managers (both human and AI)...I could be and hope that I'm wrong..

I don't post much here any more and tend to rant and rave on other media much to the displeasure of others...There's nothing worse than a gloomy paranoid pessimistic bastard raving on during the height of an once in a 10 year party/boom time event destroying everyone's nice moments...I must admit this ranting behaviour does give you bad reputations and so we don't see much of this gloomy stuff in the mainstream during partytimes for obvious reasons..

Below is my latest facebook gloomy rant...enjoy or cringe, your choice:D....

oh!! by the way, I'm 93% invested in the market..7% cash (NZ$)...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Low%20cost%20passive%20managed%20fund%20vehicles%2 0..rant.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Low%20cost%20passive%20managed%20fund%20vehicles%2 0..rant.png.html)

[sb9]

It's been a long party (8 years and still counting) and now everyone's drunk and lost their sense of reality...

You don't believe me....."Everyone" (as a collective) drives Markets, so therefore one would expect sometime during each day their would be differing sentiment which would create a little bit of volatility...Notice this last 12 months, many candlesticks are starting to look like horizontal lines..very unusual!!!.

Look at the VIX... many commentators in the past said that in theory the VIX can go well below 10 but in practice it can only go very briefly below 10 and that would be a very rare occurrence..all to do they say with the diverse number of buyers/sellers all having differing opinions and sentiments on the day..

Hmmmmmm and all this is happening with a geriatric bull that in theory should be "balls up" by now...

OK so what's happened?????....

I don't know but in searching I have found some scary stuff....(We) everyone is in unison and there's hardly any volatile movements.. In theory that means everyone is acting together..In Chaos Theory...that's a system which is in total harmony (the extreme opposite to Chaos)..In theory this behaviour is possible but in practice within a free market environment it is very rare ...unless....my thoughts only...that the dominant players at this certain period of time are very large agents for a variety of similar collectives acting responsible (so not to overheat the market) but having a huge amount of "available money" to spend somewhere..eg passive fund managers (both human and AI)...I could be and hope that I'm wrong..

I don't post much here any more and tend to rant and rave on other media much to the displeasure of others...There's nothing worse than a gloomy paranoid pessimistic bastard raving on during the height of an once in a 10 year party/boom time event destroying everyone's nice moments...I must admit this ranting behaviour does give you bad reputations and so we don't see much of this gloomy stuff in the mainstream during partytimes for obvious reasons..

Below is my latest facebook gloomy rant...enjoy or cringe, your choice:D....

oh!! by the way, I'm 93% invested in the market..7% cash (NZ$)...

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Low%20cost%20passive%20managed%20fund%20vehicles%2 0..rant.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/Low%20cost%20passive%20managed%20fund%20vehicles%2 0..rant.png.html)

Good one Hoop, have culled out couple of duds from my portfolio recently which have been moving sideways over last 3 months or so.

Keep some cash handy in case the sell off in May presents some tempting bargains.

[Cool Bear]

It's been a long party (8 years and still counting) and now everyone's drunk and lost their sense of reality...



oh!! by the way, I'm 93% invested in the market..7% cash (NZ$)...



93% in??? wow, that is real bullish.:eek2:

[arcticblue]

Hoop: where do you mainly post now. I've found your comments informative and would like to read your thoughts elsewhere if possible too.

Thanks,
Arctic

[h2so4]

93% in??? wow, that is real bullish.:eek2:

Disc : Do as I say not as I do.

[cyclist]

93% in??? wow, that is real bullish.:eek2:


Disc : Do as I say not as I do.

Very unkind (h2s04). I see this as hoop having confidence in his systems to spot the change as it occurs (or a strong risk of change) and get out. If you have that confidence, may as well ride the wave. I have a similar view on the fundamentals as hoop, but know I don't have the skills or confidence to sensibly exit. So I hold more cash.

[h2so4]

Very unkind (h2s04). I see this as hoop having confidence in his systems to spot the change as it occurs (or a strong risk of change) and get out. If you have that confidence, may as well ride the wave. I have a similar view on the fundamentals as hoop, but know I don't have the skills or confidence to sensibly exit. So I hold more cash.

Oh for sure. I have every confidence that Hoop will succeed with his system because...well the markets might go higher as they have in the past :). I am not so sure where that leaves the rest of us perhaps ignorance plays a part.

Unlike Hoops parents I see high risk in low yield investments. Low yield high risk hmmmm.

Like you I exercise caution and prudence.

[sb9]

Macron's win in the French elections should give markets bit of positive kick in the short term.

[Bjauck]

Macron's win in the French elections should give markets bit of positive kick in the short term. A relief that it is not another Brexit/Trump. However how stable will the government be in the long run?

How a Macron Presidency Could Fuel More Nationalism in France

https://hbr.org/2017/04/how-a-macron-presidency-could-fuel-more-nationalism-in-france

[JeremyALD]

Well that was an amazing day for me on the share market! Everything up about 2% and a full sea of green. Sorry for the post but it's a long time since that's happened!!

[winner69]

Well that was an amazing day for me on the share market! Everything up about 2% and a full sea of green. Sorry for the post but it's a long time since that's happened!!

You know things have gone really stupid when some investors and analysts say stocks are now too risky and that things like Bitcoin are less risky and a safer investment in the future

Times are changing

[arc]

Market looking nervous, potus shoe in mouth strikes again and the DOW & S&P slide.

[JeremyALD]

Well that was an amazing day for me on the share market! Everything up about 2% and a full sea of green. Sorry for the post but it's a long time since that's happened!!

Well I just lost about 2% today so that pretty much evens it out :p wonders of share trading

[bottomfeeder]

Bitcoin would have to be the biggest rip off that looks legitimate today. The ones who started it up became wealthy. Now any good maths wizard can mine bit coins for free, while any other individuals have to buy them. Who would want them. Sounds like the "south seas bubble all over again" Buffet got it right by saying, keep away.

[Baa_Baa]

Bitcoin would have to be the biggest rip off that looks legitimate today. The ones who started it up became wealthy. Now any good maths wizard can mine bit coins for free, while any other individuals have to buy them. Who would want them. Sounds like the "south seas bubble all over again" Buffet got it right by saying, keep away.

That's a fairly shallow assessment I'd have to say, on the mining side (creating bitcoin) any maths wizard with a decent computer has been able to mine bitcoin from day one. You'd need a massive investment in compute power to do so profitably nowadays though, which is well beyond the lay person, or even well funded entrants. The additional expense of the infrastructure and particularly the power to run the mining farm is the critical disabler of the mining business case. Think massively massive compute capability sucking heaps of gigaojoules, for a declining return in mining a limited asset.

Rather than slag bitcoin, or the other digital currencies, the punter has an opportunity to assess the market that trades the 'currency'. That's easier to understand and participate in than creating the currency. One can't ignore that genuinely big money is being made in digital currency.

The issue as I see it is that there is no one single digital currency and no barrier to entry for other digital currency, except the know-how to create it. So Bitcoin, Ether and the others are the beginning and have already made their makers and early investors fortunes. Standing aside and discounting that is ignoring a wealth creation opportunity, which like all other wealth creations requires early investment in understanding, as well as capital to invest and participate.

None of this has much to do with a Black Monday, (euphemism for a shock downturn in financial markets) except that there are emerging synergies between traditional markets and how the digital currency markets are performing. They are forming correlations, while one goes up the other goes down and visa versa, a bit like gold and silver, but not the same. But solid reliable correlations are still not apparent.

In any event, the digital currencies are evolving as legitimate and accepted forms of monetary exchange and there is a very substantial total value invested already, which will only continue to increase.

It's confusing for sure, but worthwhile learning about, keeping an eye on and an open mind and possibly participating in the exchange market. There is little to suggest that the fiat currency experiments of the past few decades will be any different to history and all of them will fail eventually, as have all before them.

Digital currency seems certain to not only disrupt fiat, but in time replace it, in some form that we cannot literally describe today.

[Jinx]

Bitcoin would have to be the biggest rip off that looks legitimate today. The ones who started it up became wealthy. Now any good maths wizard can mine bit coins for free, while any other individuals have to buy them. Who would want them. Sounds like the "south seas bubble all over again" Buffet got it right by saying, keep away.

Right, stocks aren't my main game but crypto is.

To think that bitcoin is a random scam with no use is a ridiculous understatement. The underlying technology behind bitcoin - the blockchain - is an industry changing.
Ethereum (blockchain tech) is developing what is effectively internet 3.0. And Bitcoin is the first step in this chain, I personally hold 10+ cryptocurrencies none of which are Bitcoin but crypto assets are going to become hugely important(and valuable) in the future. (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10558-Cryptocurrencies/page4 for more)

[James108]

Bitcoin would have to be the biggest rip off that looks legitimate today. The ones who started it up became wealthy. Now any good maths wizard can mine bit coins for free, while any other individuals have to buy them. Who would want them. Sounds like the "south seas bubble all over again" Buffet got it right by saying, keep away.

Thats a bit like saying any miner with decent know how can mine gold for free.

[janner]

Thats a bit like saying any miner with decent know how can mine gold for free.

He can. If he has the know how and the ability.

[James108]

He can. If he has the know how and the ability.

And yet gold has been a store of value for millenia.. really makes you think.

[janner]

And yet gold has been a store of value for millenia.. really makes you think.

Not really... I have a bag of food ... You have gold.. Why would I starve myself for your gold ????

[couta1]

A brighter day on the NZX coming up I'd say after US markets finish positive, not sure about Monday, all depends how the Trumpet is blown.

[Hoop]

A brighter day on the NZX coming up I'd say after US markets finish positive, not sure about Monday, all depends how the Trumpet is blown.


Nice..:D.................

[bull....]

im looking at a chart of nz:nz50 on bigcharts and i dont see any double top formation you suggest we are still 150 odd pts below the previous top so sorry i disagree. In fact im quite bullish the nzx at the moment big support around 6900 resistance around 7500 so any break from the range would be super bullish.
nzx has done well last mth but still is flat last 6mths so is underforming relative to some other markets so plenty of scope to catchup i reckon.

enough crystalball gazing time to go make some money

hit the 7500 top to perfection now just chopping around in the range so have to wait see which way it breaks.

[blobbles]

Another good one from RNZ this morning:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/201845436/steve-keen-the-coming-crash

Touches quite a lot on fundamental economics and how people are increasingly realising how right Minsky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky) was. He gives NZ property/debt market "1 - 2 years"... though arguably with the recent Auckland house prices dropping and subsequent listing rush, we may be tipping over the edge already (last part is my speculation).

Interesting his solution was to get the government to just "give everyone money/their fiat currency" with the proviso that those who are indebted use it to reduce debt, those that are not use it to invest into shares/the productive economy to ensure inflation is managed. He talks about how he was taken seriously by Rudd in Australia though who came up with the first home buyer grant, which has ballooned to first home buyers in Melbourne now getting ~$34k in first home buyer subsidies, exacerbating the housing issue there.

[Leftfield]

Another good one from RNZ this morning:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/sunday/audio/201845436/steve-keen-the-coming-crash



Thanks for sharing Blobbles......like you I found it a refreshing take.....he makes a lot of sense and key message to me was, reduce your borrowing/gearing (mine is zero) and be prepared for a crunch. IMHO his 'solution' of a 'free' cash grant would not work in the real world as most people would spend a money 'gift' on the wrong things. Be magic if they all decided to spend it on shares in NZX companies tho!! :t_up:

[Biscuit]

Thanks for sharing Blobbles......like you I found it a refreshing take.....he makes a lot of sense and key message to me was, reduce your borrowing/gearing (mine is zero) and be prepared for a crunch. IMHO his 'solution' of a 'free' cash grant would not work in the real world as most people would spend a money 'gift' on the wrong things. Be magic if they all decided to spend it on shares in NZX companies tho!! :t_up:

I have not listened to the interview. Not sure how helicopter money can help since large parts of the world are already addicted to money printing! The economy works by cycles - boom and bust. Just let it happen...

[bull....]

hit the 7500 top to perfection now just chopping around in the range so have to wait see which way it breaks.

finished right at the top of the range - wow what will next week bring? breakout or breakdown.

US markets are breaking out so will we follow.

[bull....]

some good movement in nz stocks in Aus yesterday, wall st flat last night but up friday.. see what happens this week breakout measurement would be 8100 as a guestimate. time will tell

[bull....]

nzx couldnt manage to breakout, tried but back in the range, see what happens

[arc]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-03/blowing-bubbles:-the-new-world-economic-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

[JBmurc]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-03/blowing-bubbles:-the-new-world-economic-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

Yes every great party comes to an end the bigger the indulgence the bigger the hangover .....

Hoping I'm smart enough to load up into BEAR.asx and BBOZ.asx and move funds towards safer investments ...before the correction we always have ...

[BlackPeter]

Im noticing an increase in the number of these "negative statement" types of documents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-03/blowing-bubbles:-the-new-world-economic-order/8671756


Thoughts folks...

Probably about the time of the year ... summer in the Northern hemisphere, most people who count either on holidays or thinking about going. Nothing else to write about, so why not warm up the economic crisis story from last year or from the year before? I guess the monster of Loch Ness (which used to fill the tabloids previously in this time of the year) must be close to retirement now, and crisis stories always sell good - nearly as exciting as watching scary movie for the umpth time :scared:

I think everything else related to the next downturn has been already stated on this thread. It will happen - at some stage. It is overdue, but so is the "big one" in the Southern Alps and in California. We are in unchartered waters. And given that the crisis industry correctly predicted 147 of the last 2 downturns (don't check, I made this number up ;) ) am I sure that whenever the next crisis comes there will be some doomsday prophet proudly claiming that they told us so. They will however not mention the last 10 forecasts of theirs which have been wrong.

Fact is - an economic crisis can come at any time ... and normally it will come when people don't expect them and become over-confident. From that perspective: good that somebody is warming up the old doomsday stories ... I started to miss them and wondered already whether we are now moving into the market phase "be fearful when everybody else is greedy".

As usual - buy stocks producing real stuff people need, diversify (as well across asset classes) and be careful: It is a dangerous world out there including a lot of doomsday preachers.

Discl: (roughly) 50% non-REIT shares (including international), 30% REITS (most of them as well listed), 20% cash & bonds, no gold, no cryptocr*p and mainly the family home (not added to the "100%" as property (but the REITS).

[RupertBear]

John Ryders global newsletter out today. Worth a read www.globalnews.co.nz (http://www.globalnews.co.nz). He thinks an immediate reversal in share markets is unlikely but rising interest rates will impact on shares and he thinks the good times are nearing an end. He recommends having a good exit strategy in place for the next 6 month.

[Hoop]

John Ryders global newsletter out today. Worth a read www.globalnews.co.nz (http://www.globalnews.co.nz). He thinks an immediate reversal in share markets is unlikely but rising interest rates will impact on shares and he thinks the good times are nearing an end. He recommends having a good exit strategy in place for the next 6 month..
Very brief newsletter but informative in saying that the markets have reached a pivot point...

I believe the best exit strategy is not repostioning ones portfolio, its reconditioning ones mental makeup....

[silu]

My strategy is to sell off most of my holdings to purchase my first home. I thought I keep my nest egg growing until I think it has reached a ceiling and me thinks this is just around the corner.

[couta1]

My strategy is to sell off most of my holdings to purchase my first home. I thought I keep my nest egg growing until I think it has reached a ceiling and me thinks this is just around the corner. Hard to know who is right, or the timing of a downturn, however some stocks like Air are very pricey now IMO, no margin of safety and I'm not comfortable buying in that situation regardless of where the price heads to in the short term, or the special divvy potential up ahead. SUM other stocks that are unloved atm have already had a big correction, so would be more defensive in a downturn.

[Bobdn]

This is one of those glorious days, even my Warehouse shares are up (maybe thanks to Torpedo7 and it's support of Team NZ).

I'm savouring the sea of green.

[Lewylewylewy]

I think that so long as NZ doesn't increase interest rates, things will go great. Main indicators I'm watching are perceived inflation and suggestions from those in charge of increasing rates to match overseas.

I don't think the latter will happen because I think they've got more sense and will like us to have a slightly devalued currency to help trade. Based on this I'm "stocked up" on FPH and RBD with overseas interests.

I'm always worried, but not that worried at the moment.

[JBmurc]

I think that so long as NZ doesn't increase interest rates, things will go great. Main indicators I'm watching are perceived inflation and suggestions from those in charge of increasing rates to match overseas.

I don't think the latter will happen because I think they've got more sense and will like us to have a slightly devalued currency to help trade. Based on this I'm "stocked up" on FPH and RBD with overseas interests.

I'm always worried, but not that worried at the moment.

In New Zealand, the OCR remains at 1.75%, but higher funding costs
and greater competition for retail bank deposits should slowly push
interest rates up. Moody's has downgraded the credit ratings of the
big four Australian-based banks, and their New Zealand subsidiaries,
which will put pressure on offshore funding costs.
--John Ryder's Global Newsletter

[bull....]

always doom and gloom merchants around trying to call the end of the bull market guess someone will be right one day

anyway

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-03/manufacturing-pickup-in-u-s-signals-boost-to-economic-growth

another rate hike for sure this year i reckon, find out the feds thinking tomorrow.

In NZ housing is slowing thank goodness dont want a bust do wee and election coming up as well but low rates support the market but as always what happens overseas will decide our fate.

[Joshuatree]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

[BlackPeter]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

Not sure I'd really expect Trump to be that dumb, but you never know. However - if the unexpected happens, than I would not be sure about the "cash is king" statement. Share prices world wide didn't do too bad during WWII (until close to the very end) but cash value turned (at least if invested on the wrong side of the conflict) quite soon to ZERO. Shares recovered quite well after the conflict.

I think diversifying across industries and geographies as well as buying stocks of companies producing essentials (which would unfortunately include weapons) might be a better strategy. Obviously - everybody needs some cash (or something which can easily be turned into cash) to get through a crisis period.

[Joshuatree]

Sorry BP, i mean cash to pick up possible bargains( never weapons, tobacco, gambling for 3 , my personal choice). Certainly tension is ratcheting up atm to maybe a new level; lets hope Kim Jong Jun has an unfortunate permanent coma type accident. Trump will be advised what to do; he respects his military commanders.

[Baa_Baa]

With North Korea launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

Depends on what you consider to be a "military response", but USA has already mobilised a military presence in South Korea, sent a battleship fleet and today it's is reported that the response to North Korea's ICBM test is ... "US and South Korean forces, in response, engineered what was meant as a show of force for Pyongyang, with soldiers from the allied nations firing "deep strike" precision missiles into South Korean territorial waters. The missile firings on Tuesday (Wednesday, NZ time) demonstrated US-South Korean solidarity, the US Eighth Army said in a statement."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/94415386/north-korea-vows-more-gift-packages-of-missile-tests-to-the-yankees

[blobbles]

Depends on what you consider to be a "military response", but USA has already mobilised a military presence in South Korea, sent a battleship fleet and today it's is reported that the response to North Korea's ICBM test is ... "US and South Korean forces, in response, engineered what was meant as a show of force for Pyongyang, with soldiers from the allied nations firing "deep strike" precision missiles into South Korean territorial waters. The missile firings on Tuesday (Wednesday, NZ time) demonstrated US-South Korean solidarity, the US Eighth Army said in a statement."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/94415386/north-korea-vows-more-gift-packages-of-missile-tests-to-the-yankees

TBH I doubt whether NK has ICBMs. The pics they released looked highly suspect, clearly photoshopped. And are we to seriously believe San Peng ("3 fat" in Chinese, their nickname for Kim Jong-Un) sat outside near the missile launch with binoculars while also looking at computer monitors? Missile test are notoriously fraught with issues, which he knows and I doubt he would have put himself anywhere near it. Reeks of scare mongering to me - a well known and effective method of scaring the US. Really, just look at these pics with clear eyes... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/04/donald-trump-attacks-kim-jong-un-twitter-north-koreas-latest/

[JBmurc]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

As well as Gold/Silver ... shares ,ETFs

[JBmurc]

With North Koreas launching an IBM that can reach Alaska ,are we in for a military response from the USA.It certainly is a game changer and an excuse to act. Would ba Black Monday par excellence and cash would be king.

As well as Gold/Silver ...and the right shares ,ETFs PMGOLD-BEAR-BBOZ etc

the USD will prob even have a kick

[Lewylewylewy]

Korea is not a problem for NZ shares, but might make buying opportunities... Hopefully

[BlackPeter]

Starting to understand the name for this thread. I love these black Mondays as well, with red arrows turning into black numbers :p. Wish we would have them several times a week.

Ah well, not that I had problems with too many red arrows before, but a number of my stocks nicely appreciated (or had at least a move in the right direction). Good day to hold retirement stocks as well! Maybe a sign for the AB's ;)?

[JeremyALD]

I really do worry what's going to happen if Labour win an election in partnership with NZ First and the Greens. At the moment its looking very close.

[JBmurc]

I really do worry what's going to happen if Labour win an election in partnership with NZ First and the Greens. At the moment its looking very close.

NZ dollar will drop that's for sure .... I agree Billy Boy hasn't the centre pulling power teflon Key had>>>

LabfirstGreen >>> what a horror it will be>>

Still tax cuts might just keep the Nats in>>

[arc]

Seeing instability across many topical fields. Some global unrest (whats new) but the big picture seems to have eased back on both growth and expansion. Caution required.

[JBmurc]

Seeing instability across many topical fields. Some global unrest (whats new) but the big picture seems to have eased back on both growth and expansion. Caution required.

WINTER'S COMING arrgghhh..... well in the northern-hemi .....and so will a correction IMHO ... At least 20% down across Nasdaq-Dow etc .....before we see our next winter....

[Jantar]

I really do worry what's going to happen if Labour win an election in partnership with NZ First and the Greens. At the moment its looking very close. I wouldn't worry about that all. NZF and the Watermelons have policies that are poles apart and no amount of diplomacy from the Labour faction could ever get them to work together.

[Tomtom]

I’m always interested in why people think one political party or ideology will be better for the economy than another. Historically, in the post-war era, there isn’t a clear trend one way or another in most countries despite political parties thinking their ideology and economic strategy is going to be a clear winner. If only investment choices where as simple as which government was in office.

On a more personal note I’ve tended to vote for political parties because I thought what they were proposing would benefit society as a whole rather than me personally. Some things should be held well above personal greed.

[Lewylewylewy]

Some types of policy will always be a greed vote for certain demographics. Specifically ones involving tax, benefits and anything relating to evil tall poppies (real estate investors, rich foreigners, employers, etc.).

I'm wondering whether to sell down now, then buy back in just before the election to be on national winning and share process going back up.

The likes of SUM are very prone to election time fluctuation, IMO. Some money to be made there?

[BlackPeter]

I’m always interested in why people think one political party or ideology will be better for the economy than another. Historically, in the post-war era, there isn’t a clear trend one way or another in most countries despite political parties thinking their ideology and economic strategy is going to be a clear winner. If only investment choices where as simple as which government was in office.


You are right - there are in history good examples for economically successful and prudent centre-left as well as centre-right governments. What I however can't remember are examples for economically (or otherwise) successful hard-left or hard-right governments.

I read as well recently that the economically most successful periods in the US have been times with a Democratic president controlled by a Republican congress.

So - yes, as long as we don't move to the extremes and as long as we make sure the Centre is involved in the government, the colour of the government might not be that important for economic success.

What however is important is whether the government of the day has experience and is able to act ... or whether it consists of a bunch of deeply divided, ideological driven and unexperienced political fundamentalists. I think the latter is the reason some people here are concerned about the prospects of a NZF / Green / Labour coalition. Very little real life experience ... and very little consensus and little openness to compromise.




On a more personal note I’ve tended to vote for political parties because I thought what they were proposing would benefit society as a whole rather than me personally. Some things should be held well above personal greed.

Actually - I never found a party which I thought was bad for me but good for the country. I prefer win-wins ... or at least the least bad option for country as well as myself.

In my view a party which is bad for individuals (e.g. anti immigrants or anti beneficiaries or anti multicultural or anti successful people) is always bad for the country as well. At current I see the usual lolly scramble before the elections. Remember - lollies are bad for your health - and why would anybody vote for a party throwing lollies around which they don't even pay for?

[Bjauck]

Some types of policy will always be a greed vote for certain demographics. Specifically ones involving tax, benefits and anything relating to evil tall poppies (real estate investors, rich foreigners, employers, etc.).

I'm wondering whether to sell down now, then buy back in just before the election to be on national winning and share process going back up.

The likes of SUM are very prone to election time fluctuation, IMO. Some money to be made there?

Markets don't like uncertainty.

Why are real estate investors tall poppies? Investing in real estate is the preferred and acceptable thing to do to build up a nest egg in the NZ system.

Real estate investors should be on safer ground than stock market investors as in New Zealand there are many more voters who directly own real estate than own shares....certainly in $ terms.

How should NZ politicians treat rich foreigners?

I would guess that beneficiaries have been the target for many politicians over the years.

[Lewylewylewy]

Real estate investors are seen as tall poppies because of the perception that people can't buy hoses because they have priced them out.

Regarding extreme government not being good for a country, I will faceciously refer to Germanys economic success post WW2 lol. Of course they're paying for it now with white guilt immigration policy 😝

[Lewylewylewy]

On a less facetious note, I think any policy that attacks factors responsible for financial success are bad (from a short term financial perspective). Example for NZ would be changes to property laws, overseas inbound investment, trade policy, etc.

[fish]

Real estate investors are seen as tall poppies because of the perception that people can't buy hoses because they have priced them out.

Regarding extreme government not being good for a country, I will faceciously refer to Germanys economic success post WW2 lol. Of course they're paying for it now with white guilt immigration policy 😝

sorry but I have to point this out.
Waking up this morning I was a little slow and really fell for this on FACE value.
A quick HOSE down in the shower and I think you should check for typo's before posting

[Lewylewylewy]

I like my messages to be a little kryptic,
I'll leave the speelling mistakes in 😜

[winner69]

OMG, not just one black swan lurking but three

Some time in the future things won't be as good as it is today

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/170722_TFTF.pdf

[Raz]

OMG, not just one black swan lurking but three

Some time in the future things won't be as good as it is today

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/170722_TFTF.pdf

The three are all expected so they are not black swan events :-)

[BlackPeter]

Real estate investors are seen as tall poppies because of the perception that people can't buy hoses because they have priced them out.

Regarding extreme government not being good for a country, I will faceciously refer to Germanys economic success post WW2 lol. Of course they're paying for it now with white guilt immigration policy ��


I like my messages to be a little kryptic,
I'll leave the speelling mistakes in ��

Your first statement is neither funny nor correct. Why would you call the post WW2 government in Germany (under chancellor Adenauer) "extreme"?

Your second statement is racist, dumb and offensive. Shame on you.

[JBmurc]

Markets don't like uncertainty.

Why are real estate investors tall poppies? Investing in real estate is the preferred and acceptable thing to do to build up a nest egg in the NZ system.

Real estate investors should be on safer ground than stock market investors as in New Zealand there are many more voters who directly own real estate than own shares....certainly in $ terms.

How should NZ politicians treat rich foreigners?

I would guess that beneficiaries have been the target for many politicians over the years.

Going forward with the very high cost of property living costs to income in NZ more and more voters will be voting for a anti-wealthy property, Pro rich foreigners owners of NZ land Govt.. like a LabGreenNZF >> this of course could well give as many "Black Mondays"

IMHO if it wasn't for the National Tax cut vote bride ...I think English wouldn't been looking down a second defeat as PM >>

[Lewylewylewy]

Not advocating anything wartime germany did, just referencing the fact that after the war germany was the only country that didn't have financial problems and their politics were about as extreme as it gets. Clearly far side politics does not equal melt down. Other extremes resulting in financial success (note that throughout, I'm only talking about financial success here) is China. Most recently, Trump boom is another example. I agree that the comment was tongue in cheek.

Or was it the comment about how Germany has gone the other way with immigration policy that offended? I'm sorry, but white guilt is a real thing. There are races out there that hate white people (I myself, suffered a lot living in Leicester, UK from racism against white people and have had cars driving past shouting abuse, threats violence, theft, etc.). But those people want to live in white countries because their country is a nightmare. In Germany this has resulted in crime (mainly rapes and robbery). Why do they accept people from countries where it's acceptable to rape women because they're lesser beings, or rob people because that's just what you do? white guilt from the war and slavery.

So what can we do about this? We can say "ummm, you're a racist, ummm I'm telling!", we can say nothing, or we can make bad jokes about it.

Seriously though... Please don't tell on me :)

[Bjauck]

Going forward with the very high cost of property living costs to income in NZ more and more voters will be voting for a anti-wealthy property, Pro rich foreigners owners of NZ land Govt.. like a LabGreenNZF >> this of course could well give as many "Black Mondays"

IMHO if it wasn't for the National Tax cut vote bride ...I think English wouldn't been looking down a second defeat as PM >> Perhaps. A majority of households are still owner occupied. The proportion of owner-occupiers who vote is probably greater than the proportion of renters. Owner-occupiers have seen the value of their assets increase during the current government's period of office. That may favour the Party of Least Change (National). I think the political power of owners is greater than renters - still - although that could change in the medium term if socio-economic trends continue.

The disaffected and those who have missed out on tax cuts, the change in the economy and the boom in asset prices may favour the parties of more radical change (the part of the electorate that may have favoured DT and Brexit in the US and UK.)

[Lewylewylewy]

There are roughly 2.2 to 2.3 million home owners in NZ.

I can't say exactly as some of those will be trusts / companies that are owned by people who are already listed as a home owner (and therefore I counted twice), and some will be people with the same name that I counted as one person.

There are an estimated 4.8 million people in NZ according to Stats NZ, I don't know how many of those can vote.

[BlackPeter]

Not advocating anything wartime germany did, just referencing the fact that after the war germany was the only country that didn't have financial problems and their politics were about as extreme as it gets.

Not that this discussion belongs on this thread ... but if you drop very controversial statements, than maybe you should first check the facts. Germany paid a high price for losing WWII. And I still don't get which politics of post war Germany have been extreme? If you claim to state "facts", than please provide them.



Or was it the comment about how Germany has gone the other way with immigration policy that offended? I'm sorry, but white guilt is a real thing. There are races out there that hate white people (I myself, suffered a lot living in Leicester, UK from racism against white people and have had cars driving past shouting abuse, threats violence, theft, etc.). But those people want to live in white countries because their country is a nightmare. In Germany this has resulted in crime (mainly rapes and robbery). Why do they accept people from countries where it's acceptable to rape women because they're lesser beings, or rob people because that's just what you do? white guilt from the war and slavery.


True - racism comes in all colours of the skin and it is always ugly. Statements that "fugitives come from countries where it is ok to rape women" is racist and wrong. And while it is correct that the fugitives who arrived in Germany do have a higher representation in the crime stats than the natives (quite similar to Maoris here, only that its here the natives with the higher rate of criminality) would I think that a big part of the problem in Germany is caused by the age and gender of most of the refugees. Most of them are young and male, this is the group of the population which is in all human races more adrenalin driven and ready to commit crimes. It is also true that many of the "rapes" and robberies" spread on social media never happened. We unfortunately live in a time of fake news.

Look - this is a difficult subject and if you want to know more about it, than create an appropriate thread and lets continue there. Making "jokes" about it and at the same time spreading fake news is a quite sad way to deal with the issue that too many Westerners are happy to bomb the living hell out of Syria and Iraq and are quite happy to sell and supply weapons to anybody who asks (and pays) for it, but not too many are prepared to deal with the human problems we are creating that way.

[Baa_Baa]

Than or then, does it matter or anyone care? There will be a crash than we're all clambering for the exit. Than those who don't get out are screwed. Than the market recovers and the screwed are happy they held. Than those who sold buy in and screw the market. Than is then, but who cares and does it matter?

[Leftfield]

Time to be a bit more cautious?
Robert Shiller is concerned (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/the-market-risk-that-makes-nobel-laureate-robert-shiller-lie-awake.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook) that his S&P 500 index is getting a tab too high for comfort, with average PE's of a tab over 30

9035

[Baa_Baa]

Time to be a bit more cautious?
Robert Shiller is concerned (http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/the-market-risk-that-makes-nobel-laureate-robert-shiller-lie-awake.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook) that his S&P 500 index is getting a tab too high for comfort, with average PE's of a tab over 30

There are a great deal of pessimists emerging from the euphoria, many of whom know better than to risk their funds and investors wealth in the great ponzi scheme of global equities markets fuelled by sovereign liquidity that has and is quietly drying up.

But it's different this time. Yeah right.

[blackcap]

There are a great deal of pessimists emerging from the euphoria, many of whom know better than to risk their funds and investors wealth in the great ponzi scheme of global equities markets fuelled by sovereign liquidity that has and is quietly drying up.

But it's different this time. Yeah right.

Dow at all time highs. Up from 18,000 when Trump got elected to nearly 22,000 now. That is a 20% jump in less than a year on an already bull market. When will it stop and what happens then....

[Ggcc]

Dow at all time highs. Up from 18,000 when Trump got elected to nearly 22,000 now. That is a 20% jump in less than a year on an already bull market. When will it stop and what happens then....
I hope to be ready to buy good long term shares at decent prices

[sb9]

Dow on the way to topping 22,000 mark, the bull run continues....

[bull....]

Dow on the way to topping 22,000 mark, the bull run continues....

All looking good powered by good earnings and weak us dollar. Weak us dollar last mth has meant emerging markets and commodities have been the place to be and the dow has outperformed.



Security Name

Close

30 Day Return



OIL

49.16

13.0635



BRAZIL

66529

7.1925



HANG SENG

27540

6.5673



CRB

181

5.5348



EEM

44

5.5249



CHINA

3292

4.8408



INDIA

32575

4.0835



GOLD

1270

2.09



DJI

21963

2.0206



NASDAQ

6363

1.9864



NEW ZEALAND

7729

1.8837



S&p 500

2476

0.933



Russel

1428

0.7228



AUSTRALIA

5772

0.2623



HYG

89

0.2375



JAPAN

19985

-0.4086



LONDON

7424

-0.6564



DOW UTILITIES

728

-0.8174



TLT

125

-1.2126



FRANCE

5127

-3.1475



DOW TRANSPORT

9145

-3.493



GERMANY

12251

-4.3973



US DOLLAR

93

-4.6388

[sb9]

All looking good powered by good earnings and weak us dollar. Weak us dollar last mth has meant emerging markets and commodities have been the place to be and the dow has outperformed.



Security Name

Close

30 Day Return



OIL

49.16

13.0635



BRAZIL

66529

7.1925



HANG SENG

27540

6.5673



CRB

181

5.5348



EEM

44

5.5249



CHINA

3292

4.8408



INDIA

32575

4.0835



GOLD

1270

2.09



DJI

21963

2.0206



NASDAQ

6363

1.9864



NEW ZEALAND

7729

1.8837



S&p 500

2476

0.933



Russel

1428

0.7228



AUSTRALIA

5772

0.2623



HYG

89

0.2375



JAPAN

19985

-0.4086



LONDON

7424

-0.6564



DOW UTILITIES

728

-0.8174



TLT

125

-1.2126



FRANCE

5127

-3.1475



DOW TRANSPORT

9145

-3.493



GERMANY

12251

-4.3973



US DOLLAR

93

-4.6388





With Apple reporting better than expected earnings just after market close, its highly likely that we may see Dow cross 22,000 mark tomorrow.

[bull....]

With Apple reporting better than expected earnings just after market close, its highly likely that we may see Dow cross 22,000 mark tomorrow.

tried again but not this time bit of selling going on around 22 at the moment might consolidate?

[King1212]

I read couple times including today at cnbc....recommendation from fund managers to increase cash holding to buy in when market fall. As most of stocks are expensive...they recommend to choose n shop around stocks that under value. is it something that we all expecting? Market correction?

[BlackPeter]

I read couple times including today at cnbc....recommendation from fund managers to increase cash holding to buy in when market fall. As most of stocks are expensive...they recommend to choose n shop around stocks that under value. is it something that we all expecting? Market correction?

No doubt - at some stage (in days, weeks, months or years) we will have the next correction / crash. Question is just - when?

And the recommendation to shop around for undervalued stocks ... sounds like a no-brainer (like "buy cheap and sell dear"), doesn't it? Probably one of these recommendations which is already for the last century on the top of the cheat sheet for holiday replacements of market commentators - just in case they really have nothing else to talk about during the eventless summer period.

[Joshuatree]

Low interest rates
Cheap oil
$US low good for American companies
The big one , Trumps promised tax cuts

I heard that tax cuts, reform haven't been done since Reagan; its just so hard and complicated; and gets mired in opposition, complexity etc etc. So if this blockage/inability for Trump /republicans to achieve anything starts realising anytime soon; well I'm building cash right now for that possible collapse in confidence. I know folks have been on the sideline ; some for years on here worrying about this and expecting it and missing out on great gains(Skid?). But I'm wanting to protect my funds more then ever at the moment and have started selling some off shore investments and will reduce some NZ ones too. If / when it happens i can come back in and buy quality stocks for great prices and if i get it wrong timing wise sa la vie i got to sleep easier at night.

[mondograss]

Clinton did tax cuts, as did Bush which Obama carried on. But yes they do need fairly wholesale tax reform.

[bull....]

just imagine the trillions coming back into the US if the tax around offshore cash is changed, imagine some will be used for buybacks - dow 30000 ?

[Hoop]

Back in 1987.. NZ was rather economically sh1tty due to ongoing introduction of Monetary Policy / free market disruption and that 1987 Wall st crash made our already bear market even worse and it took years to fully recover no thanks to the self-afflicted double dip recession..but the USA markets were in a bull market cycle at that time and 1987 crash was over in a (slow!!) flash and the bull market regained itself and continued on.. and some lucky USA investors who had cash on the sidelines and courage of conviction got some real bargains...

When I experienced it (as NZ investor at the time) and doing research on the DOW and S&P500 much later on as seen on the ST forum Investing in a secular bear market thread..strangely I never delved deep into the cause..just naturally thought it was a rare irrational panic correction across the board..but apparantely there was more market physics in play than I thought and in areas I didn't even know at the time existed

I received an email article this morning from Jared Dillion (The 10th Man) about the crash of 1987 (http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/black-monday#) (5 minute read) He infers some saw it in advance so technically it wasn't a black swan event..but it draws on the fact that these things can happen and the problem begins when everyone in a crowded space starts to sell at the same time as he quotes “if some people do it, nothing bad happens, but if everyone does it, all hell breaks loose.”

Hementions some crowded space areas and quote ".... I am not predicting a crash. I am saying that the conditions that could contribute to a crash are all present, and the likelihood has never been higher...."

Another crash the size of 1987????......JAred did mention in his article "....The Dow falling 22.61% in one day was a “25-standard deviation event.” That is an occurrence so rare that if the stock market had been open every single day since the Big Bang… it still shouldn’t happen....."

OK..no worries then...eh

[bull....]

Back in 1987.. NZ was rather economically sh1tty due to ongoing introduction of Monetary Policy / free market disruption and that 1987 Wall st crash made our already bear market even worse and it took years to fully recover no thanks to the self-afflicted double dip recession..but the USA markets were in a bull market cycle at that time and 1987 crash was over in a (slow!!) flash and the bull market regained itself and continued on.. and some lucky USA investors who had cash on the sidelines and courage of conviction got some real bargains...

When I experienced it (as NZ investor at the time) and doing research on the DOW and S&P500 much later on as seen on the ST forum Investing in a secular bear market thread..strangely I never delved deep into the cause..just naturally thought it was a rare irrational panic correction across the board..but apparantely there was more market physics in play than I thought and in areas I didn't even know at the time existed

I received an email article this morning from Jared Dillion (The 10th Man) about the crash of 1987 (http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/black-monday#) (5 minute read) He infers some saw it in advance so technically it wasn't a black swan event..but it draws on the fact that these things can happen and the problem begins when everyone in a crowded space starts to sell at the same time as he quotes “if some people do it, nothing bad happens, but if everyone does it, all hell breaks loose.”

Hementions some crowded space areas and quote ".... I am not predicting a crash. I am saying that the conditions that could contribute to a crash are all present, and the likelihood has never been higher...."

Another crash the size of 1987????......JAred did mention in his article "....The Dow falling 22.61% in one day was a “25-standard deviation event.” That is an occurrence so rare that if the stock market had been open every single day since the Big Bang… it still shouldn’t happen....."

OK..no worries then...eh

But it is different this time -

It is the most hated bull market in history , because no one believed it and many still dont

also funds have huge cash positions relative to normal , cause they dont believe it

record low interest rates different to normal

record liquidity

cash offers no viable returns

steady growth and increasing earnings

etc etc

still 2 yrs to go i think to be the greatest bull market in history

[BlackPeter]

...
He mentions some crowded space areas and quote ".... I am not predicting a crash. I am saying that the conditions that could contribute to a crash are all present, and the likelihood has never been higher...."

...


Sure - the conditions that would contribute to a crash are always present ... and the higher you get the more likely it is. Not quite sure how he measures that "the likelihood never has been higher". A number of parameters typically used for this purpose are high, but not uniquely high (like average PE) and others are currently even quite low (e.g. VIX). I recon Mauldin have as well problems to fill their publication during the eventless summer break. Maybe we should write more about Nessie ...



...
Another crash the size of 1987????......JAred did mention in his article "....The Dow falling 22.61% in one day was a “25-standard deviation event.” That is an occurrence so rare that if the stock market had been open every single day since the Big Bang… it still shouldn’t happen....."

OK..no worries then...eh

Whoever wrote that sentence is just demonstrating his or her lack of statistical knowledge and understanding of random events. While a 25 standard deviation event might be rare, this does not mean (as we see) that it should not happen.

As well - an event happening once before has no impact at all on its probability of happening again. Google "gambler's fallacy" to check.

So - what do they really want to say? It won't happen again due to the 1987 event or it will happen again due to the 1987 event? Either conclusion would be wrong.

[Hoop]

But it is different this time -

It is the most hated bull market in history , because no one believed it and many still dont

also funds have huge cash positions relative to normal , cause they dont believe it

record low interest rates different to normal

record liquidity

cash offers no viable returns

steady growth and increasing earnings

etc etc

still 2 yrs to go i think to be the greatest bull market in history.

"..still 2 yrs to go i think to be the greatest bull market in history..." yep and who wouldve thought this bull market could come this close to happening as Wall St is in its 17th year of its Secular Bear Market Cycle and the PE(10) should be around 12 and declining not 30 and increasing...(remember:.. PE(10) of 25+ has always been historically a market crash area)

PE(10) trend indicates long term (generational) (secular) investor perceptions to the value of a stock investment...The (PE(10) values referred to here is reference to the DOW/S&P500 indexes.

Shorter term (cyclical) I think worry is a good tonic for the Bull (probably why this bull has lived so long)..The "wall of worry" normally occurs during the middle stages of a Bull market cycle and it is this investor sentiment which creates caution to keep some cash on the sidelines (surplus "available" money).....The market operates on "available" money (buy/sell).

However...


The Market is just that "A MARKETPLACE" which is ruled by a certain species of herd animal with all the survival animal instincts hard coded into their DNA...that species is called Homo sapiens...Using FA logic to govern a market ruled by animals is futile.............Sentiment rules which often turns FA on its head

[bull....]

phase 2? of the bull market

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41231/the-three-phases-of-a-bull-market

Phase II may be called the Mark-Up Phase. It occurs as the improved tone of business and rising price action begin to attract public and institutional attention. This second phase is the longest phase and most deceptive of the three phases.

If we in phase 2 30000 dow not unrealistic , actually if you look at a very long term us dollar chart we may have hit the cyclical top around 103 and would suggest all downhill now so bull market will get tail wind of weak dollar earnings amped going forward

[BlackPeter]

phase 2? of the bull market

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41231/the-three-phases-of-a-bull-market

Phase II may be called the Mark-Up Phase. It occurs as the improved tone of business and rising price action begin to attract public and institutional attention. This second phase is the longest phase and most deceptive of the three phases.

If we in phase 2 30000 dow not unrealistic , actually if you look at a very long term us dollar chart we may have hit the cyclical top around 103 and would suggest all downhill now so bull market will get tail wind of weak dollar earnings amped going forward

Quite possible ... I certainly don't see yet a "market mania" (which would be phase 3).

[Joshuatree]

Clinton did tax cuts, as did Bush which Obama carried on. But yes they do need fairly wholesale tax reform.

Thanks mondo. Does no-one think this is a major issue , the promised tax cut carrot which going by what trump can't achieve so far is probably not achievable any time soon? I like to look at tangible things that will cause a correction, who know s when.Once USA realises this is not going to happen will that be a trigger. point.

[bull....]

Thanks mondo. Does no-one think this is a major issue , the promised tax cut carrot which going by what trump can't achieve so far is probably not achievable any time soon? I like to look at tangible things that will cause a correction, who know s when.Once USA realises this is not going to happen will that be a trigger. point.

doesnt matter , the market didnt even fall when healthcare failed so i think nothing getting done is factored in now.

[Hoop]

You are seeing market mania now..you don't realise it because of all the negative media....

but the figures don't lie...S&P500 earnings (inflation adjusted) at same level as 2007 (http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/)(expected to rise 2017-18)..very high PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/) being labeled as not over-valued by the majority investment groups with very low interest rates citing the "new normal" as the excuse..This looks to me like exhuberance in a complacient way..Have a look at the $VIX chart change $INDU to$VIX (a value <20 is calm) (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui) This indicator has been mislabeled by the media as a fear index, in reality the $VIX index is a measure of S&P500 options volatility..The VIX is at record lows showing extreme calm in the market.. however the VIX has been calm for years now apart from an occasional blip upwards and the investors have accustom themselves to this calm as being a long term normal event which history tells us this is not the case... Investors are deluding themselves into thinking stocks are priced about right while in fact the market is fundamentally overvalued with some measures in bubble territory..e.g Shiller PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/)

Late stage Bull market sees a drop in "available" money as investors are fully emersed into the market and their debt funding is maxed out..This scenario shows up decreasing volume with rising prices..(lack of sellers- investor sentiment is bullish) see 5 year S&P500 chart change $INDU to $SPX (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui), investor happiness at a high level and the majority now promising this bull market will continue for a long time yet (a minority promises this in Stage 1 50%/50% in stage 2) and low VIX values with lower value spikes (fear) reinforcing this investor contentness.. while the media dramatizes and hypes up the most trival non-effectual things into a pseudo-major event..eg worry this worry that..

Good God!!!!!..even the weather forecasters are at it now..all in the name of gaining public attention and increasing market share of the public's attention.....

Another way to show bubbles is the investor mania to borrow and beg to obtain more (available) money to buy stock at any cost through the stockmarket....While we all might be openingly grizzling about the market to the media..the truth is these grizzlers are borrowing big time and plonking it on the market...being able to borrow at lower interest rates and the US companies in recent years changing course and raising their dividend yield rates fuels this type of behaviour..Have a look at the NYSE margin Debt.....raw data here (http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8)..inflation adjusted values here (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/01/a-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market) in historic chart form.... notice how the margin debt has doubled in the last 4 years and has increased that trend this year...Also notice on the charts the point when margins top out 2000 2007 and the last 3 years (yet to top out) all during boom times..as I said in my previous post the economy trend is a lagging indicator..History shows nearly all recessions occur after the stockmarket reverses into a Bear Market Cycle..Most investors include nearly all on ST forum (Winner69 excluded) think it is the other way around (false logic)/(layman's paradox).....This false logic is the major factor causing investor denial and all sorts of Cognitive Dissonances when the market reverses to bear and is the reason why 80% of the investors fail to exit the market and get mauled by the bear..(margin investors more severely due to margin calls)...Please read this ST thread there is 26 pages of valuable info to understanding how the sharemarket works..This thread could save you big time when the next Bear market arriveshttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets Note the start date of the thread, the end of the last bull market cycle (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets)

I have a list which I have posted recently on ST (page 124 post #1853) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page124) the conditions which signal the top of a Bull Market Cycle..I continuously add to it as more conditions and correlated indicators are published by various well regarded experts in their fields...High margin debt is one on my list..another is high A&M (acquistions & mergers) which currently has been dropping in numbers...I have personally labeled each condition as a "duck"..we have high MD but A&M is average so not all ducks have lined up in a row yet suggesting this current Cyclic Bull Market cycle still has legs but it is definitely not Stage 2..it is in stage 3 and has been for 3 years now (rare length of time)..
(http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8)

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Hoop; i think i got the gist off that:). If you can occasionally share how many ducks are lined up I and many others on here would immensely appreciate this philanthropic knowledge. ETFs becoming immensely popular was one i found(i scrolled back 10 pages on this thread only).
Great thread thanks one and all and enjoy your weekend.

[RupertBear]

You are seeing market mania now..you don't realise it because of all the negative media....

but the figures don't lie...S&P500 earnings (inflation adjusted) at same level as 2007 (http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/)(expected to rise 2017-18)..very high PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/) being labeled as not over-valued by the majority investment groups with very low interest rates citing the "new normal" as the excuse..This looks to me like exhuberance in a complacient way..Have a look at the $VIX chart change $INDU to$VIX (a value <20 is calm) (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui) This indicator has been mislabeled by the media as a fear index, in reality the $VIX index is a measure of S&P500 options volatility..The VIX is at record lows showing extreme calm in the market.. however the VIX has been calm for years now apart from an occasional blip upwards and the investors have accustom themselves to this calm as being a long term normal event which history tells us this is not the case... Investors are deluding themselves into thinking stocks are priced about right while in fact the market is fundamentally overvalued with some measures in bubble territory..e.g Shiller PE Ratio (http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/)

Late stage Bull market sees a drop in "available" money as investors are fully emersed into the market and their debt funding is maxed out..This scenario shows up decreasing volume with rising prices..(lack of sellers- investor sentiment is bullish) see 5 year S&P500 chart change $INDU to $SPX (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui), investor happiness at a high level and the majority now promising this bull market will continue for a long time yet (a minority promises this in Stage 1 50%/50% in stage 2) and low VIX values with lower value spikes (fear) reinforcing this investor contentness.. while the media dramatizes and hypes up the most trival non-effectual things into a pseudo-major event..eg worry this worry that..

Good God!!!!!..even the weather forecasters are at it now..all in the name of gaining public attention and increasing market share of the public's attention.....

Another way to show bubbles is the investor mania to borrow and beg to obtain more (available) money to buy stock at any cost through the stockmarket....While we all might be openingly grizzling about the market to the media..the truth is these grizzlers are borrowing big time and plonking it on the market...being able to borrow at lower interest rates and the US companies in recent years changing course and raising their dividend yield rates fuels this type of behaviour..Have a look at the NYSE margin Debt.....raw data here (http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8)..inflation adjusted values here (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/01/a-look-at-nyse-margin-debt-and-the-market) in historic chart form.... notice how the margin debt has doubled in the last 4 years and has increased that trend this year...Also notice on the charts the point when margins top out 2000 2007 and the last 3 years (yet to top out) all during boom times..as I said in my previous post the economy trend is a lagging indicator..History shows nearly all recessions occur after the stockmarket reverses into a Bear Market Cycle..Most investors include nearly all on ST forum (Winner69 excluded) think it is the other way around (false logic)/(layman's paradox).....This false logic is the major factor causing investor denial and all sorts of Cognitive Dissonances when the market reverses to bear and is the reason why 80% of the investors fail to exit the market and get mauled by the bear..(margin investors more severely due to margin calls)...Please read this ST thread there is 26 pages of valuable info to understanding how the sharemarket works..This thread could save you big time when the next Bear market arriveshttp://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets Note the start date of the thread, the end of the last bull market cycle (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets)

I have a list which I have posted recently on ST (page 124 post #1853) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page124) the conditions which signal the top of a Bull Market Cycle..I continuously add to it as more conditions and correlated indicators are published by various well regarded experts in their fields...High margin debt is one on my list..another is high A&M (acquistions & mergers) which currently has been dropping in numbers...I have personally labeled each condition as a "duck"..we have high MD but A&M is average so not all ducks have lined up in a row yet suggesting this current Cyclic Bull Market cycle still has legs but it is definitely not Stage 2..it is in stage 3 and has been for 3 years now (rare length of time)..
(http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8)

Great post thanks Hoop :)

[winner69]

This guy says the bull market will continue forever

Aaron - long wait for you

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/04/the-bull-market-could-continue-to-forever--strategist-jim-paulsen-outlines-conditions.html

[winner69]

Nearly all recessions start after the markets turn into a bear cycle

The current economic 'boom' in NZ (rock star etc) could will turn to 'bust' in 2018/2019 (the drivers are currently present)

One then could expect the NZX to start looking bearish later this year

[RTM]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4064835-passive-indexing-trap

This author seems to be worth keeping an eye on. Not sure how I stumbled upon it...apologies if it is above within this thread.

[Bjauck]

You are seeing market mania now..you don't realise it because of all the negative media....

but the figures don't lie.........it is in stage 3 and has been for 3 years now (rare length of time)..
(http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=tables&key=50&category=8)
Not a rant but a sobering post. It is easy to be caught up in the excitement surrounding particular companies.

[BlackPeter]

Hoop - great post & lots of food for thought. Thank you!

I guess the one thing which got under my skin was the exorbitant margin debt you are pointing to. Anything else can still be controlled by humans when the SP drops, but this is one thing which is very likely to turn a market "cold" into a serious flu: investors who are required to sell, whether it is a good idea or not - just due the bank making a margin call.

So, yes, I give you we might be in phase III. This huge amount of margin debt is just plain stupid. However still not sure how and when the whole thing will play out, and yes, I think that this time it is different (doesn't mean though that we will avoid the next crash):

I don't think we ever had that late in a bull cycle such low interest rates;
People do have the information about previous crashes ... and some behave accordingly (people do learn, though some slower than others);
Crashes typically happen when investors don't worry. At the moment however, they do.

A number of experts (including John Ryder) are calling a peak in 2018 and a correction to follow.

Probably a good time to reduce any margin lending and increase the cash component of one's portfolio.

Otherwise - I guess the only sensible thing to do is to "dance close to the exit" as John Ryder tends to recommend. To leave the market at this stage completely can still cost another one or two (or three) years of good gains ... and missing out is a loss as well.

Ah yes - and great discussion. However - the people who are worrying about the next crash (black Monday) since August 2015 (and went cash) lost already now the 30% the NZX50 grew since then .. lost opportunity cost can be worse than a nice little correction from time to time.

Happy investing everybody ;)

[bull....]

tried again but not this time bit of selling going on around 22 at the moment might consolidate?

22 tough at the moment

[bull....]

22 held good at the moment

[allfromacell]

A nice article regarding the NZ economy and lack of productivity.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/89257/jbweres-bernard-doyle-nzs-productivity-recession-population-growth-driving-economic

[bull....]

22 was the key for sell off

[arc]

A nice article regarding the NZ economy and lack of productivity.

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/89257/jbweres-bernard-doyle-nzs-productivity-recession-population-growth-driving-economic

Interesting, JBWere issuing a "Caution" notice is a "must read"



22 was the key for sell off

Both S&P and DOW... beggs the question, Are bigger players already starting to unwind their positions?. But these declines have repeatedly happened before.

When considering current Internet scuttlebut says 2018 "might" be the time when a correction "could" eventuate.

Will be interesting to see what eventuates

While we are on the "potential for doom and gloom" subject. What are your folks thoughts on defensive stocks to hold during "tough economic times". eg The necessities of life, electricity, food, ??, and I know someone is going to say Gold..

[JeremyALD]

Not a great day on the stock market!

[peat]

Not a great day on the stock market!
unless you're a buyer !

[Hoop]

unless you're a buyer !

....who may or may not regret his/her actions later on

Interesting to see NZ currency falling (breaking TA) due to recently released lower than expected economic data
.

[winner69]

....who may or may not regret his/her actions later on

Interesting to see NZ currency falling (breaking TA) due to recently released lower than expected economic data
.

House sales data pretty weak for July (REINZ)

Don't underestimate the impact this has on future retail consumption and building activity (lower economic growth)

Even the RBNZ has this as Scenario 2

[bull....]

....who may or may not regret his/her actions later on

Interesting to see NZ currency falling (breaking TA) due to recently released lower than expected economic data
.

Also risk off trade , notice us dollar and gold all up , nz dollar falls when risk off

[peat]

....who may or may not regret his/her actions later on


depends on your time frame....




Interesting to see NZ currency falling (breaking TA) due to recently released lower than expected economic data
.


yes I have my NZD/USD shorts in place, they were hurting quite badly but I know my position sizing and could ride it through. in the black now.

[Hoop]

depends on your time frame....




yes I have my NZD/USD shorts in place, they were hurting quite badly but I know my position sizing and could ride it through. in the black now.

Mr Wheeler would be your friend atm...eh Peat:D... threating NZ$ intervention and all that..

Mind you firing off a BB gun into a herd of elephants and expecting them all to fall over is a very big ask..eh

Respecting that Wheeler is a intelligent man, maybe his intention/motive is adding a tiny bit more fuel to the already downtrending fire..

[peat]

Mr Wheeler would be your friend atm...eh Peat:D... threating NZ$ intervention and all that..

I wasnt aware he threatened that actually. I know their directive is only to act when there is a high likelihood of it having a worthwhile impact so he will never fight the trend (like I stupidly too sometimes)

[percy]

Not a great day on the stock market!

Great day for Percy Corp book sales at Rolleston schools.

[Hoop]

I wasnt aware he threatened that actually. I know their directive is only to act when there is a high likelihood of it having a worthwhile impact so he will never fight the trend (like I stupidly too sometimes)

No I wasn't aware of it either Peat, until I stumbled over the British Currency News...I find reading about NZ from overseas media is sometimes enlightening....
This is the British media site: - Pound Sterling LIVE: (https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/) The article is number 3.

Edit: I have added the article URL as it is now off the Home page
The New Zealand Dollar Falls as RBNZ Warns on Currency Strength, seen "Aggressively on Hold" on Rates (https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/nzd/7304-rbnz-impact-on-new-zealand-dollar)

[Hoop]

Also of curious interest from Pound Sterling LIVE is Lloyds Bank Forcasts for the Pound verses EUR, USD, AUD, CAD, NZD (https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/exchange-rate-forecasts/7302-outlook-for-pound-pressured-by-dovish-central-bank-and-brexit-says-lloyd-s-report) up to September 2019...Interesting only if like seeing into Lloyds Bank Crystal Ball which is probably no better than any of ours..Their ball shows our NZD falling 6% during 2018..

[RupertBear]

I confess to feeling quite apprehensive about the Trump North Korea situation. I cant see either side backing down so it may very well be a very Black Monday or a very Black Tuesday or a very Black Week or .... I certainly hope not :mellow:

[Major von Tempsky]

If you are fond of panicking read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-11/hong-kong-stocks-tumble-faster-as-north-korea-concerns-persist and panic.

I've lived through a number of panics, the 1987 October panic I remember particularly (Olly Newland wrote an immensely good enjoyable book on it) so my mouth curls in a cynical sneer and I start looking for bargains :-)

[winner69]

I confess to feeling quite apprehensive about the Trump North Korea situation. I cant see either side backing down so it may very well be a very Black Monday or a very Black Tuesday or a very Black Week or .... I certainly hope not :mellow:

If he aims at Guam and they put too much juice in and it sails over Guam and veers slightly left it'll hit Auckland

Apparently Christchurch is out of range ... just

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/10/world/asia/what-can-north-korea-reach-with-its-missiles.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=b-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

[bull....]

I had a very nice dinner tonight just in case tomorrow doesnt come.

[RupertBear]

Lucky good old Dunners will be safe then Winner :)

Not panicking and will be happy to pick up a few bargains as well. My main concern is for the innocent people that will be harmed or killed if these twats start nuking each other :(

[percy]

If you are fond of panicking read this https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-11/hong-kong-stocks-tumble-faster-as-north-korea-concerns-persist and panic.

I've lived through a number of panics, the 1987 October panic I remember particularly (Olly Newland wrote an immensely good enjoyable book on it) so my mouth curls in a cynical sneer and I start looking for bargains :-)

Do you remember the story fund manager/financial commentator, Frank Pearson ,told of working in a brokerage house in London at the time of The Cuban Missile Crisis,when it looked as though the Russians were going to nuke London.?
Every one was selling their shares,except one brave guy who kept buying,although he would never be able to pay for the shares he was buying.
Reason being, if they nuked London, he would be dead, and would therefore be unable to pay.
However if they did not nuke London,the shares would go up,because it was not the end of the world.
Offcourse he made a fortune.!!

ps.I hope the war does not start before 11 am on Monday,as I have to deliver books to schools, and then get home to read Heartland Bank's result.I have nothing planned on Monday afternoon.

[RupertBear]

Do you remember the story fund manager/financial commentator, Frank Pearson ,told of working in a brokerage house in London at the time The Cuban Missile Crisis,when it looked as though the Russians were going to nuke London.?
Every one was selling their shares,except one brave guy who kept buying,although he would never be able to pay for the shares he was buying.
Reason being, if they nuked London, he would be dead and would therefore be unable to pay.
However if the did not nuke London,the shares would go up,because it was not the end of the world.
Offcourse he made a fortune.!!

ps.I hope the war does not start before 11 am on Monday,as I have to deliver books to schools, and then get home to read Heartland Bank's result.I have nothing planned on Monday afternoon.

Your a breath of fresh air Percy! :D

[kiora]

Not a great day on the stock market!

But it has been a good month et al for a year

[ratkin]

My spider senses are tingling, can see rough time coming up. Stock bubble, housing bubble, credit bubble, crypto bubble, something about to go pop

[Fatboyj]

Funny term bubble once its popped its gone forever, but those stocks, houses, credit, crypto will still be here. Better word is balloon, can be popped(like Ponzi schemes or finance companies of late 2000's) and gone forever or deflated a bit but continue to expand in the good times.

Trump is a great showman he makes for very interesting times, and knows how to deflect all the negative stories against him.
Rhetoric will escalate, panic will set in and bargains will be had(AIR for sure yesterday)

Really enjoying the interesting times we're in now. Its a great time to be alive. Healthy. Cashed up ready to pounce.

Percy that story of yours is just fantastic, will tell it to anyone who's got the jitters.

[root]

We all know there is a correction coming but is this it......no too far out of the bounds of this little mini trend, although all my alerts fired.

9079

[Hoop]

We all know there is a correction coming but is this it......no too far out of the bounds of this little mini trend, although all my alerts fired..

Nice charting of the tertiary channel (channel pattern) to find breaks of support Root..

My secondary trend channel (orginated from the end of the last bull market correction (feb2016) bottom line is 2365...similar trend channel line to Roots

For interest the primary SD channel (from the beginning of the bull market Feb 2009) bottom line is 2000..The primary channel break using H/L line touches (creates a slightly widening wedge very long term pattern) that bottom line which is also the primary trend line is at 2081..2080 or 2000 would be the limit before bull turns to bear

Might be a lot of jumbled figures to the Forum readers ...so look at it this way..Media often uses the start of Bear Market Cycle rule of thumb >20% drop...At the moment 2441 - (2441 x 20% ) = 1953....Note the charting figures are similar but a bit higher

Going back to Roots chart the channel pattern (tertiary) break is still in the margin of error but a disturbing sign is the very small failed throwbacks to double check the break. We can now say with some confidence that the channel break is true...

No need to panic with tertiary channel breaks as they are minor

Even if this is a true break the fall is theoretically supported at the next top line of the secondary channel which is at 2365 as I type..so a maximum fall of 3% until the next channel comes into play...thats peanuts atm

Definition of a Bull Market correction is < 20% (rule of thumb)

We have a long way to go (downwards) before the bear shows up on the radar..

EDIT:- This may sound contradicting my S&P500 thread post..but I'm not....Using TA discipline a disciple exits on sell signals so those with SP500index passive funds should exit now and re-enter on the buy signals..if the drop is minor (as it has been the last 2 years) the disciple investor may lose a fraction (exit and entry costs) if the market quickly reverts again however that investor will look at that cost as a insurance cost against risk..

[ratkin]

We all know there is a correction coming but is this it......no too far out of the bounds of this little mini trend, although all my alerts fired.

9079

Labour coalition win/ negotiations in the elction will not help especially coming at a traditionally dubious time of year for Nz stocks. Add in global unrest, growing concern of overpriced assets and it easy to see a selloff gaining decent momentum. Going be plenty of money leaving the table

[pak]

China has piped up and said they will back/defend NK only if US strike first. China will remain neutral if NK stikes first.
My take - if NK strikes first - that would be suicide for NK.
If US strikes first - well anything could happen. WWIII? ???? I hope not!

More likely nothing will happen at this stage - just my take though........

[Hoop]

The media may be anxious or stressful, but it was another calm day on Wall St with a spike on awareness...no worries

9080

[tim23]

Pure speculation - some stocks will do well under Labour might pay for you to start preparing for that possibility?
Labour coalition win/ negotiations in the elction will not help especially coming at a traditionally dubious time of year for Nz stocks. Add in global unrest, growing concern of overpriced assets and it easy to see a selloff gaining decent momentum. Going be plenty of money leaving the table

[root]

.


...... My secondary trend channel (orginated from the end of the last bull market correction (feb2016) bottom line is 2365...


.........No need to panic[/B] with tertiary channel breaks as they are minor........

..

Nicely said Hoop, I'll be starting to cash up more stocks as we head towards the lower trend line of the Secondary channel, I think I must have a small appetite for risk.

Rightly or wrongly I (and probably a lot of other people) identified this Secondary Channel as the end stage of the Bull, it would be a shame to leave the party at midnight and find out people were still having a lot of fun at 3:00 am, but the older I get the worse the hangovers are.

9081

[fish]

[QUOTE=root;678183]Nicely said Hoop, I'll be starting to cash up more stocks as we head towards the lower trend line of the Secondary channel, I think I must have a small appetite for risk.

Rightly or wrongly I (and probably a lot of other people) identified this Secondary Channel as the end stage of the Bull, it would be a shame to leave the party at midnight and find out people were still having a lot of fun at 3:00 am, but the older I get the worse the hangovers are.

As we get older and wiser we learn not too drink excessively and leave the party before midnight.
I seldom wear a watch and leave when the time feels right-usually well before midnight-and have a good nights sleep.Timing is important but with the right drinks less so.
My drinks are increasingly low risk and diversified.

NZ is changing for the better economically.
Growth is happening.
Finance companies burnt people and they are more careful.
Increased retirees have to put their money somewhere-select nzx companies provide easy good returns and unlike banks are imputed.
Maybe its best to stay at this party but dont drink too much.
I dont feel its time too leave

[value_investor]

We are slowly approaching the 8000 point ball park, and we've had a very solid earnings season so far but a lot of shares have reached very high valuations. It's hard to bet against the local markets right now. However, this is perhaps the first time in nine years where a change of government is a possibility.

I've been reading a lot of literature on when the international markets will burst. There are a lot of conspiracy theory artists out there looking at singular isolated events and pointing to that being the cause of the upcoming crash. Its hard to say what it will be as these things are domino effects. So there are so many different things that may cause a slowdown or correction.

One thing that did catch my attention is that Warren Buffet and Charlie Mungers Berkshire who likes to hold at least $25b cash in the kitty is currently holding a record $95b. He probably doesn't see the bargains out there at the valuations over in the states.

[Fatboyj]

WB sitting on a mountain of cash eh and waiting for a planetary alignment to swoop in. Looking at patternology, we have this to work on...

Black Friday - 24/09/1869
Wall St Crash - 24/10/1929 +60 years
Black Monday - 19/10/1987 +58
Black Wednesday - 16/09/1992 +5
911 market crash - 11/09/2001 +9
Financial crisis - 16/09/2008 +7
Big bang(Trump NK) - 09/2017? +9

So there it is, I wasted 1/2 hour of my bedtime working on this. No Fibonacci, Binomial, Catalan, gnocchi or pepperoni series visible. Unless anyone can see a pattern?

Or did I waste my time? With my degree in astrology coming in handy we have the dates spanning virgo/libra.

WB's star sign is virgo, This is how and why he knows when to swoop in to make billions. He influences markets to crash round his birthday every time he blows out the candles.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks for sharing those dates Fbj. Ive been building more cash but not as fast or as much as i would like.Time to look harder at my portfolio.Many stocks have run hard and high so at the LEAST,trimming more from some seems prudent for me .

[Lewylewylewy]

So, Korea eh?!

Think that'll go boom?

[couta1]

So, Korea eh?!

Think that'll go boom? US markets up overnight, so not too worried about those missiles aye.

[Fatboyj]

Yea the Japanese can fend for themselves. Plus Trump has no reason to blow wind on this there's enough wind in Texas to keep the good ol yanks distracted.

[bull....]

s7P 500 2420 - 2480

[Rob Optimist]

Cashed up a lot of shares last week, might not have peaked yet but I'm comfortable

[Hoop]

Thanks for the dates FBJ..

Interesting cash position by Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway.
Speaking about Buffett made me look for the latest value for his Buffett indicator..

Quote From Gurufocus (https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php) As of 2017-09-01 (updates daily): The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued. Based on historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 133.5%), it is likely to return -1.1% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.

The Buffett indicator 60year chart (last update 2nd August) can be seen at Advisor Perspectives Inc (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/03/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator)