Black Monday

[Raz]

Honestly, this will be the mega market pull back we all need. In 5 years time we'll be grateful for it (sorry traders, talking to investors here)

As a trader and investor..today has been special day to make money...it will be very difficult to continue to do so going forward if you are not a trader:-)

[skid]

100% cash +gold,but I cant say Im a happy camper---Thank God I dont have to live there.--but I aint fooling myself that it will not affect things here

Wait till all those people over there realize he aint got a hope in Hell at getting their jobs back

[Beagle]

I liquidated all market positions very late this afternoon, I simply was not prepared to wear the capital risk when leading bookmakers had Trump at $1.01 to win. In the unlikely event of Clinton pulling off a miracle comeback I'll be very happy to reinvest some funds down the track a bit but I think Trump is a catalyst for serious trouble for the market going forward.
99% cash and 1% silver. I am not happy either but relieved to be taking a break from the never ending merry go round that is the sharemarket.

I imagine our property investments won't be immune to the effects of Trump winning but at least we have no direct share market exposure for the immediate future to worry about.

[couta1]

100% cash +gold,but I cant say Im a happy camper---Thank God I dont have to live there.--but I aint fooling myself that it will not affect things here

Wait till all those people over there realize he aint got a hope in Hell at getting their jobs back Yes indeed, Thank God we don't have to live there but nethertheless a sad day for a lot of Americans if trump makes it(I'm feeling their sadness)

[Valuegrowth]

NZ dollar also may drop against basket of currencies. Commodity including oil prices also will go down further. Current situation will make winners as well as losers. In any market situation, intelligent investors will become winners.

[GR8DAY]

dont panic folks..........trump the chump is not going to win!!

gulp...............

[skid]

You know when news people start saying things like ''the sun is still going to come up tomorrow'..that things are bad.:ohmy:

[Raz]

You know when news people start saying things like ''the sun is still going to come up tomorrow'..that things are bad.:ohmy:

Still listen to news people..time to reconsider that one.

[Bobdn]

Sure but here's the most important lesson for new investors: don't ever ever ever have most of your cash tied up in nz investments. If you work here, you have enough exposure to the nz economy. Invest off shore. Nz dollar is dropping now significantly.

[skid]

I liquidated all market positions very late this afternoon, I simply was not prepared to wear the capital risk when leading bookmakers had Trump at $1.01 to win. In the unlikely event of Clinton pulling off a miracle comeback I'll be very happy to reinvest some funds down the track a bit but I think Trump is a catalyst for serious trouble for the market going forward.
99% cash and 1% silver. I am not happy either but relieved to be taking a break from the never ending merry go round that is the sharemarket.

I imagine our property investments won't be immune to the effects of Trump winning but at least we have no direct share market exposure for the immediate future to worry about.

My biggest exposer is to property (didnt even think to put that) but yes,It could take a hit. We'll always get by though and a drop would obviously be good for many. Those things take time though.--Who knows ,it may go up when all those Americans come to get away from USA.
One expert predicted if Trump won he would be impeached in the first 6 mos. (violating constitution)

Theres no getting around the fact though, that its frightening. Even if he cant end up doing all those horrible things,-the majority of the most powerful country in the world are on board with him as their leader..with that kind of mindset.---There are no more barriers to just about anything

[Joshuatree]

yeah i never believed Roger was a yawning bored beagle as he claimed ; he was/is a pointing quivering hunting beagle ramrod straight cashing up and chasing his tail (but on the mat)
Skid you've been cashed up along time ? Except for the unfortunate experiment called AIR? Could be a great bounce coming up with the republicans likely controlling everything; tax concessions etc ; just got to time it right:)

[trader_jackson]

There is going to be alot of deals around tomorrow... already a few around today, eg HBL and GNE

Hard to understand why it will affect companies like HBL and GNE who are essentially NZ only businesses... likely another repeat of brexit... I would be worried about a few NZ businesses, such as F&P Healthcare (with that mexico tax and their manufacturing being in Mexico)

Wish I had more cash to capitalize on retail panic!

[skid]

yeah i never believed Roger was a yawning bored beagle as he claimed ; he was/is a pointing quivering hunting beagle ramrod straight cashing up and chasing his tail (but on the mat)
Skid you've been cashed up along time ? Except for the unfortunate experiment called AIR? Could be a great bounce coming up with the republicans likely controlling everything; tax concessions etc ; just got to time it right:)

Yes,although I have still retained my interest in the Share Market ,I have been watching what I consider ominous signs in markets in general,to the point that Im content to miss out on gains in Lew of capital preservation--There are 2 sides to most share purchases--will the share appreciate?-And will the general market gain or at least stay the same? I dont feel comfortable with the latter so Im going with the patient approach.
So far alot who have taken the risk have benefited. Maybe this situation the market will shake off as well---but Im content to wait for a nice Bull market to come along. AIR was an exception that didnt work out --exited with a small loss,but was'nt going to wait around ages for it to come right (all the while wondering if that outside market bear was going to lift its ugly head)

Yep ,could be a bounce(its that timing it right that is a bitch)---I would imagine you will see a very different Trump now(to stop the blood) But it will be an uneasy relationship,even with his own party.

[Bobdn]

There is going to be alot of deals around tomorrow... already a few around today, eg HBL and GNE

Hard to understand why it will affect companies like HBL and GNE who are essentially NZ only businesses... likely another repeat of brexit... I would be worried about a few NZ businesses, such as F&P Healthcare (with that mexico tax and their manufacturing being in Mexico)

Wish I had more cash to capitalize on retail panic!

I got rid of HBL a few weeks back (and transferred the funds to ANZ) - again it gets back to my comments of having too many eggs in the NZ basket. Anyone who went through 1987, with a 44% drop in the NZ market, will understand what I'm saying here.

[couta1]

There is going to be alot of deals around tomorrow... already a few around today, eg HBL and GNE

Hard to understand why it will affect companies like HBL and GNE who are essentially NZ only businesses... likely another repeat of brexit... I would be worried about a few NZ businesses, such as F&P Healthcare (with that mexico tax and their manufacturing being in Mexico)

Wish I had more cash to capitalize on retail panic! Macro events affect all stocks, HBI and GNE don't have exemption cards and nor should they.

[Bobdn]

fair point Couta1

[Zaphod]

the majority of the most powerful country in the world are on board with him as their leader..

Not necessarily - Trump could win the electoral college vote, but with Clinton winning the popular vote. That would make the situation even worse by creating a huge social divide within the country.

[Jim]

Ready for a big bloodbath tomorrow

[trader_jackson]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/08/stock-futures-waffle-after-first-election-results-emerge-showing-tight-race.html

Already Dow futures have halved losses and are down around 300 points... could even get back to 18k after all this panic, meaning the NZX 50 going down 3.3% (vs futures down less than 2.2%) was, potentially, a large over reaction

Hopefully the further retail panic will allow me to top up :t_up:

Banks and Energy stocks ready to rally (in the US at least...)

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Oh man, what should i be buying tomorrow!

[777]

Nothing.

Be patient.

[Raz]

Oh man, what should i be buying tomorrow!

I have a fair idea..my weighting from tomorrow will be 80% overseas investment from up from 65%, all that 15% will be specific US stocks, many connected with Trump and his associated supporters...fully cash up on my NZ portfolio two weeks ago and converted 15% to cash overseas when the cross was favourable, will pick up some good value in NZ if it presents itself...canning TPPA is good for the NZ public however i see real risk with our main export markets going forward with a trade war :-)

[trader_jackson]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/08/stock-futures-waffle-after-first-election-results-emerge-showing-tight-race.html

Already Dow futures have halved losses and are down around 300 points... could even get back to 18k after all this panic, meaning the NZX 50 going down 3.3% (vs futures down less than 2.2%) was, potentially, a large over reaction

Hopefully the further retail panic will allow me to top up :t_up:

Banks and Energy stocks ready to rally (in the US at least...)

Europe Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 Futures down less than 1%, Dow Future losses decreasing to 250 points... short term likely a bounce (or at least full recovery)... how things work over the next few months could be more interesting

[Ggcc]

Trump wins. There will be bargains happening for long term holders in the next few weeks. Unfortunately I have no cash available 😞

[trader_jackson]

Europe Stoxx 600 and FTSE 100 Futures down less than 1%, Dow Future losses decreasing to 250 points... short term likely a bounce (or at least full recovery)... how things work over the next few months could be more interesting

FTSE down just 0.2%, Swiss exchange actually up 0.8%... even I'm surprised about how fast this short term blip has seemingly nearly disappeared... mid term future still a bit unknown, Trump did sound good on TV at least, just little certainty

Lets get ready for the interest rate announcement from Mr Wheeler tomorrow!

[Beagle]

yeah i never believed Roger was a yawning bored beagle as he claimed ; he was/is a pointing quivering hunting beagle ramrod straight cashing up and chasing his tail (but on the mat)
Skid you've been cashed up along time ? Except for the unfortunate experiment called AIR? Could be a great bounce coming up with the republicans likely controlling everything; tax concessions etc ; just got to time it right:)

I made the call privately to my mates by e.mail in late Sept I thought the market was fully priced and expected a good old fashioned 10-15% correction and have been 70-80% cash since then and avoided much the of the correction that followed. If I'm on the mat I can assure you its a very well padded one :p

[workingdad]

Will there be some helicopter money flying around tomorrow?

[Raz]

I made the call privately to my mates by e.mail in late Sept I thought the market was fully priced and expected a good old fashioned 10-15% correction and have been 70-80% cash since then and avoided much the of the correction that followed. If I'm on the mat I can assure you its a very well padded one :p

matter of days or a week after you were talking up your shares held and associated yields..case of situationally honest?? haha

[Bobdn]

Oh this is truly hopeless. I see BHP in London (which I own) is now up 2.5 per cent! Honestly, this will be just like Brexit where the market recovers in about 4 hours and there's no chance to pick up anything.

[Raz]

Oh this is truly hopeless. I see BHP in London (which I own) is now up 2.5 per cent! Honestly, this will be just like Brexit where the market recovers in about 4 hours and there's no chance to pick up anything.

Another reason you should be buying on overseas markets..not up for the fun of it currently..working hard!!

[Valuegrowth]

Some markets should recover by Friday.
FTSE down just 0.2%, Swiss exchange actually up 0.8%... even I'm surprised about how fast this short term blip has seemingly nearly disappeared... mid term future still a bit unknown, Trump did sound good on TV at least, just little certainty

Lets get ready for the interest rate announcement from Mr Wheeler tomorrow!

[bull....]

big rebound of those intra day levels on the dow - 17450 odd has been support from earlier yr and also 38% fib support from jan 2016 lows round about so got pretty close anyway based out around here

[Joshuatree]

Yes Dow up 165 recently. Interesting times ahead."Life what is it; but a dream".:confused:

[bull....]

yes interesting times , asia sell off was probably all to do with trumps trade policies

asx looking at over 3% jump at the moment japan 5%, nzx ? notice utilities still hammered in the us as well as real estate

[winner69]

US markets Closing in on all time high

No worries


(Weird how the world seems to believe all the media hype Bout the world ending)

[couta1]

NZX gross overreaction yesterday, firesale over, congrats to those who picked up bargains.

[see weed]

NZX gross overreaction yesterday, firesale over, congrats to those who picked up bargains.
I bought some of Rogers yesterday:). Just another Brexit.

[skid]

So its business as usual?-How many would have picked anything that happened yesterday?(incl the share market) that either means the share market can only appreciate...or anything can happen---(didnt see his speech--he must have calmed a few nerves)--No one really knows where America is going ,but markets dont care?

[blackcap]

So its business as usual?-How many would have picked anything that happened yesterday?(incl the share market) that either means the share market can only appreciate...or anything can happen---(didnt see his speech--he must have calmed a few nerves)--No one really knows where America is going ,but markets dont care?

Climbing the wall of worry? I don't know, did not pick a rebound so quick either but the Dow is now op over 200 points.

[Cricketfan]

Maybe markets will rebound in the short term, but my concern is what's going to happen in the next year or so when Trump's policies, and also Brexit, take effect. That's when the real impact on the market will be known, right? Not the sudden, knee-jerk reactions at the time of the events.

[pierre]

Looks like Donald is starting by making the Dow Jones great again.

[couta1]

So its business as usual?-How many would have picked anything that happened yesterday?(incl the share market) that either means the share market can only appreciate...or anything can happen---(didnt see his speech--he must have calmed a few nerves)--No one really knows where America is going ,but markets dont care? Markets probably liking the certainty of the election being over and a clear result. Add to that the believe by some commentators that the stock market will actually do well under Trump once you cut behind all the rhetoric. Trump is a wealthy man and I'm sure he intends to stay that way so he needs to instill confidence and his speech did that by promising economic growth and prosperity.

[Beagle]

I bought some of Rogers yesterday:). Just another Brexit.

U.K. 4% of the global economy, USA 22%, 5 1/2 times the size. Trump calling for protectionist trading policies, lumping 45% tariffs on anything out of China.
TPPA is dead in the water. Putin looking to make friends with America but contemporaneously looking to expand their territory and what of China's overt expansion plans in the south China sea ?
Interesting times ahead. One conciliatory speech doesn't set the tone for his presidency. Actions speak louder than words and I believe he's a loose cannon. Lets see how this plays out mate.

[bull....]

US markets Closing in on all time high

No worries


(Weird how the world seems to believe all the media hype Bout the world ending)

dow jones record high today possible pretty amazing comeback 1000pt turnaround overnight fu.... amazing

[Raz]

Maybe markets will rebound in the short term, but my concern is what's going to happen in the next year or so when Trump's policies, and also Brexit, take effect. That's when the real impact on the market will be known, right? Not the sudden, knee-jerk reactions at the time of the events.

This is the post of the day:-)

[Raz]

U.K. 4% of the global economy, USA 22%, 5 1/2 times the size. Trump calling for protectionist trading policies, lumping 45% tariffs on anything out of China.
TPPA is dead in the water. Putin looking to make friends with America but contemporaneously looking to expand their territory and what of China's overt expansion plans in the south China sea ?
Interesting times ahead. One conciliatory speech doesn't set the tone for his presidency. Actions speak louder than words and I believe he's a loose cannon. Lets see how this plays out mate.

Rodger..do a fact check on yourself..

[trader_jackson]

Dow up close to 300 points, and nearly within a 100 point range of an all time high, making it near 1200 point swing in the past 24 hours...

This is just no fun! PS, If anyone still wants to panic sell a few HBL at $1.37, please let me know ;)

[bull....]

U.K. 4% of the global economy, USA 22%, 5 1/2 times the size. Trump calling for protectionist trading policies, lumping 45% tariffs on anything out of China.
TPPA is dead in the water. Putin looking to make friends with America but contemporaneously looking to expand their territory and what of China's overt expansion plans in the south China sea ?
Interesting times ahead. One conciliatory speech doesn't set the tone for his presidency. Actions speak louder than words and I believe he's a loose cannon. Lets see how this plays out mate.

us markets going gangbusters because trump gonna spend big on infrastructure, tax cuts etc all very pro growth for the us

[see weed]

U.K. 4% of the global economy, USA 22%, 5 1/2 times the size. Trump calling for protectionist trading policies, lumping 45% tariffs on anything out of China.
TPPA is dead in the water. Putin looking to make friends with America but contemporaneously looking to expand their territory and what of China's overt expansion plans in the south China sea ?
Interesting times ahead. One conciliatory speech doesn't set the tone for his presidency. Actions speak louder than words and I believe he's a loose cannon. Lets see how this plays out mate.
I agree with all you say and have a finger just as close to the sell button as the buy button. In the short term have been buying up....will let you know after market opens.

[BlackPeter]

us markets going gangbusters because trump gonna spend big on infrastructure, tax cuts etc all very pro growth for the us

Yes, just wondering where Trump will take the money to pay for this big spending spree. The US debts are already unsustainable high and Trump promised to significantly cut taxes (instead of increasing them). Who do you think is going to pay for his promises?

[Blue Horseshoe]

Probably from using less hellfire missiles @ $70,000.00 a pop for a starter.

[Balance]

Yes, just wondering where Trump will take the money to pay for this big spending spree. The US debts are already unsustainable high and Trump promised to significantly cut taxes (instead of increasing them). Who do you think is going to pay for his promises?

Just keep printing for as long as inflation is not a problem.

[Beagle]

Just keep printing for as long as inflation is not a problem.

Stoke that fire long enough and it'll run away on itself with no possibility of being extinguished. Hyper inflation coming at some stage ?

[Balance]

Stoke that fire long enough and it'll run away on itself with no possibility of being extinguished. Hyper inflation coming at some stage ?

We already have hyper inflation in properties - this does not translate however into CPI.

The world is still full of surplus capacity and there are still countries like Vietnam, Burma, Bangladesh, Latin America and parts of Africa to provide cheap labour to produce the consumer goods at ever cheaper prices.

[bull....]

Yes, just wondering where Trump will take the money to pay for this big spending spree. The US debts are already unsustainable high and Trump promised to significantly cut taxes (instead of increasing them). Who do you think is going to pay for his promises?

does he care who pays? lol anyway deficit spending is just another leg in Keynes theory to get an economy out of the mire.

cant say I remember ever seeing nzx swing around so big in a week looks like another big swing today

[Beagle]

We already have hyper inflation in properties - this does not translate however into CPI.

The world is still full of surplus capacity and there are still countries like Vietnam, Burma, Bangladesh, Latin America and parts of Africa to provide cheap labour to produce the consumer goods at ever cheaper prices.

That's not the sort of hyper inflation I'm talking about mate. Think Zimbabwe. Rain money down long enough like some sort of Ben Bernake Mk2 on super steroids and the results of that experiment could be very interesting.

[BlackPeter]

does he care who pays? lol anyway deficit spending is just another leg in Keynes theory to get an economy out of the mire.

...


Probably not - but he still will need a budget. And if we think that government debts are unsustainable now, than cutting income and increasing spending is unlikely to help.

[bull....]

Probably not - but he still will need a budget. And if we think that government debts are unsustainable now, than cutting income and increasing spending is unlikely to help.

deficit spending relys on growth to pay for the tax cuts and spending and inflation rising to reduce the deficit in real terms over time in theory anyway so guess someone else down the track will have to worry about it if it doesn't pan out lol

anyway nzx wow down 3 odd % yest up 3-4% today just goes to show you should always retain some exposure to stocks in a portfolio

over an out time for bed lol

[Hoop]

We already have hyper inflation in properties - this does not translate however into CPI.

The world is still full of surplus capacity and there are still countries like Vietnam, Burma, Bangladesh, Latin America and parts of Africa to provide cheap labour to produce the consumer goods at ever cheaper prices.



Yes, just wondering where Trump will take the money to pay for this big spending spree. The US debts are already unsustainable high and Trump promised to significantly cut taxes (instead of increasing them). Who do you think is going to pay for his promises?
That's not the sort of hyper inflation I'm talking about mate. Think Zimbabwe. Rain money down long enough like some sort of Ben Bernake Mk2 on super steroids and the results of that experiment could be very interesting.

No experiment Roger..Its a cycle...You will start to hate me using that word..eh:D...

I've been around for a while now... stepped in a few piles of dinosaur poop in my day but personal observation is worth heaps more than reading it in books and reacting/believing to all the opposition to change opinions..

Back before 1980 the world was in an era of protectionism with large tariffs on cheap imported goods, trading was difficult and full of regulations, currency was pegged and the flow of money was restricted....The smaller countries like NZ found the going tough and usually lagged in economic changes...After decades of domestic industry protection the worlds system lost its vibrancy and stagnated, domestic got "fat" lost its competitiveness lost the need to innovate.. price of domestic goods got very expensive labour was overpaid and inefficient and the internal economy started to falter..public groundswell started to rise and the tipping point came with the Oil shocks....The public got fed up, the government opposition took notice, presented a new world order to make their Country great again and the public swept them into power ,,so entered "globalisation" together with free markets and monetary policy..Britain was first (Thatcherism) followed closely by USA (Reaganomics) and lagging a few years later NZ (Rogernomics)...A new era always comes with teething problems, shift of company and industry dynamics with the lazy companies unable to adapt hitting tough times, the very powerful organisations affected by change fight against it. The public who many voted for change did not expect that their life would change too helped to create more unrest..and so those resisting change or unable to adapt went down kicking and screaming..

Back to 2016..The public groundswell against migrants creating cultural and housing problems, dominating overseas companies invading the home turf, holding Governments to randsom (e.g paying next to no taxes) and dictating (forcing) how the public buys their products and services, free markets and cheap overseas goods robbing the home countries of their home grown industries and jobs..finally hit a tipping point with migrant flood in Europe....Brexit (The English decided it was time to get their country back)...and now USA has followed...Expect NZ to follow down this more protectionism path in a few years time....The Central Bank's glory years are coming to an end and a start to increased domestic controlled industries through import restrictions, lower taxes to fuel the local industry growth via more spending power..

AS all new systems have teething problems and have their fair share of opposition they (system) usually start off with vigour and for the next decade or two will proceed well..Only after decades of increasing restrictions will this protectionist system start to deteriorate as it did back in the 1970's..remember when restrictions got to the point (of ridiculous) when huge tarriffs had to be put into place to protect the Thames car assembly plant and Pye radios and TV's from technically better and cheaper overseas competitors products so inflation rises.. to combat inflation more regulations such as..price freezes rent freezes and selected import bans (Couldn't buy golf balls for a few months :p) due to balance of payment problems..The public groundswell for change began to increase.

I was tertiary educated in the late 70's early 80's to believe time was upon us to change from a regulated economy. The overuse of restrictions was strangling the economy and the economic situation has lost its vibrancy....so it was time back then to free up the markets via monetary policy...

Now it seems with the loss in vibrancy and restricted slow growth with the overuse of monetary tools to the point of being ridiculous .eg Helicopter money...it's time again for the Western world to change and once again restrict the free market...The public out there are speaking and the Opposition parties are listening..

The cycle continues to revolve ever so slowly ..eh..

Recommendation for Success: Don't resist, have an open mind, learn to embrace the changes to your advantage, and adapt quickly!!

[Zaphod]

Yes, just wondering where Trump will take the money to pay for this big spending spree. The US debts are already unsustainable high and Trump promised to significantly cut taxes (instead of increasing them). Who do you think is going to pay for his promises?

My take on this is that by imposing significant tariffs on Mexican (and probably Chinese) goods and significantly lowering the corporate tax rate, this will kick start the mothballed factories throughout the US and thereby provide employment and stimulating the economy.

Personally, I can't see it working. Many of these factories have been mothballs for decades and require significant investment to restart them, along with retraining of staff. At the end of the day Americans not pay $20 for their Walmart cups that used to be $1. Once the economic reality of US manufactured goods hits the voter in the pocket, the reality of the situation will hit home.

[BlackPeter]

Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?

But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.

What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?

Is it time to move more funds overseas?

[Hoop]

Great post, hoop - though scary. Where will most of us be for this cycle to move back towards globalisation if it takes several decades for half a revolution?

But I think you have a very valid point (though you could argue that the cycle might speed up given today's better means of communication) ... and so we probably better adapt.

What stocks fare better under a protectionist system?

Is it time to move more funds overseas?

An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...

So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs

[skid]

An Answer:...Looking back in history.. NZ (as did many other small Countries) seemed to fair better with free trade...NZ relies heavily on export trade as we are a commodity producing nation..our population isn't big enough together with a lack of self sufficiency in energy resources to survive entirely on a domestic driven economy..Remember under the last Protective area (Muldoon) they tried to solve that self-sufficiency problem in energy (Think-Big)...It ended in disaster...

So yeah..overseas investing looks better...bigger is better ..eh.....I guess there will be some NZ companies that will do well..such as supplying to local needs

That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc

[arc]

XRO and Orion Software OHE are very exposed to American intervention... and Trumps "If it aint built in America we dont want it".

[couta1]

82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.

[Baa_Baa]

82% of my portfolio total is made up of Air and Spk and I'm happy with that choice looking ahead, both big divvy payers and great NZ companies.

Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:

SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's

AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.

These two have a history of periodically destroying capital.

[see weed]

That does not sound like it will bode well for PEB(if they ever get their act together) or even ATM,BLT ,etc
ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK:).Correct me if I'm wrong.

[couta1]

Have to maintain perspective, move with the times and have a Plan B though:

SPK is the retail remains from Telecom, largely owned by offshore investors, which longterm shareholders experienced one of the greatest wealth destructions in NZ market history aka Gattung, currently trading now around a 1/3 of its all time high. Probably never get back to the $9's

AIR is clearly cyclical up from .80's in 2012 and prior to that experienced traumatic events like Erebus and barely avoided bankruptcy by NZ Govt bailout, SP went to .20's, not sure if they paid a dividend through that mess.

These two have a history of periodically destroying capital. Fair enough, but unknown disasters aside I would argue that both these companies have moved on from the issues you have mentioned and have/are evolving into better companies, both will play an important role in our economy going forward.

[Leftfield]

As a result of Trump investment in a 'safe' economy as NZ could increase substantially.

USA immigration enquiries increase by 56,000 in the 24 hrs before 9am today, 24x's more than usual.

Read this; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/for-some-americans-canada-isn-t-far-enough-amid-shock-trump-win

[skid]

ATM doesn't count in the above comment. ATM is going to be made in America, as it is in Australia,NZ and the UK:).Correct me if I'm wrong.

China?....

[skid]

I doubt this will happen. Just look at all the celebrities who said they would leave but have now reneged.


If anything more jobs will be available in the States due to more infrastructure spending so you will see the reverse.

I dont think the main reason is for jobs

[Beagle]

Nice post Hoop, thanks for the walk down memory lane. I completed my Tertiary education in 87 so you have a few years experience on me.
I remember the Muldoon era well. 60% deposit to buy a car if my memory serves me well...I think you had to have foreign currency at one point ? Then he fixed interest rates at 8 and 11%.
Think Big, the only project that really worked was Marsden point.

The experiment I was alluding too is the possible level of debt or quantitative easing Trump might consider. Just keep printing money until inflation rears its ugly head...I suppose they could inflate their way out of debt, generate some serious inflation and reduce the debt in real terms. Perhaps that's the idea. Interesting to note that interest rate sensitive stocks, REIT's for example haven't really participated in today's lukewarm bounce-back.

The good old Earnslaw, what a fabulous old lady of the lake she is...will be down in Queenstown next week, hard to resist going to a little ride...being cashed up I have time to smell the roses so too speak :)

[see weed]

As a result of Trump investment in a 'safe' economy as NZ could increase substantially.

USA immigration enquiries increase by 56,000 in the 24 hrs before 9am today, 24x's more than usual.

Read this; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-10/for-some-americans-canada-isn-t-far-enough-amid-shock-trump-win
Correct me if I'm wrong.....56,000 pc Clinton supporters. Me just a good old home town proud red neck racist:D.

[Hoop]

Correct me if I'm wrong.....56,000 pc Clinton supporters. Me just a good old home town proud red neck racist:D.

Getting close to Christmas..here's a redneck gift (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJOe3CXE-mA) ..enjoy:D

[Joshuatree]

I only lasted 9 seconds Hoop:eek2:. Check out trumpies suits.Includes 3 ongoing with Trump University.

Legal affairs of Donald Trump - Wikipedia (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjc3I_A7J3QAhUEJ5QKHWZeCjkQFgguMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FLegal_ affairs_of_Donald_Trump&usg=AFQjCNHQQd39pNxvPaFuJZtRZB1ujovUoQ&sig2=mpBZAu96X9cdeV4baQgjQA)

[Hoop]

I only lasted 9 seconds Hoop:eek2:. Check out trumpies suits.Includes 3 ongoing with Trump University.

Legal affairs of Donald Trump - Wikipedia (https://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjc3I_A7J3QAhUEJ5QKHWZeCjkQFgguMAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FLegal_ affairs_of_Donald_Trump&usg=AFQjCNHQQd39pNxvPaFuJZtRZB1ujovUoQ&sig2=mpBZAu96X9cdeV4baQgjQA)

Bloody Hell...equivalent to 120 Law suits/year in the last 30 years...I would guess that number will rise as he is yet to deal with his political enemies...

US politics to be the best and most watched entertainment show in 2017??...Game of Thrones and Westworld won't stand a chance :cool:

[bull....]

looks like the false break down back into the channel caused by election noise has gone? and the natural trend has resumed - up so maybe the initial breakout is still on towards 20k dow
rotation out of defensives continues in the us and bonds rrising so guess nzx wont be going up in a hurry either probably down

[skid]

Nice post Hoop, thanks for the walk down memory lane. I completed my Tertiary education in 87 so you have a few years experience on me.
I remember the Muldoon era well. 60% deposit to buy a car if my memory serves me well...I think you had to have foreign currency at one point ? Then he fixed interest rates at 8 and 11%.
Think Big, the only project that really worked was Marsden point.

The experiment I was alluding too is the possible level of debt or quantitative easing Trump might consider. Just keep printing money until inflation rears its ugly head...I suppose they could inflate their way out of debt, generate some serious inflation and reduce the debt in real terms. Perhaps that's the idea. Interesting to note that interest rate sensitive stocks, REIT's for example haven't really participated in today's lukewarm bounce-back.

The good old Earnslaw, what a fabulous old lady of the lake she is...will be down in Queenstown next week, hard to resist going to a little ride...being cashed up I have time to smell the roses so too speak :)

I remember if you wanted to take a trip ,you couldnt get foreign currency until a week before (or something like that)--I actually had to go out and buy a refundable ticket to get my travelers checks in anticipation of an increase in that currency)--it was crazy

Yes,looks like Trump is going to go on a spending spree for infrastructure and ..do tax cuts and.. increase military spending--that debt is going to rocket (unless they get some major inflation)---this may be his biggest bankruptcy yet--the USA

[skid]

looks like the false break down back into the channel caused by election noise has gone? and the natural trend has resumed - up so maybe the initial breakout is still on towards 20k dow
rotation out of defensives continues in the us and bonds rrising so guess nzx wont be going up in a hurry either probably down

Whats good for the USA (perceived,like infrastructure spending) does not always rub off on other markets--As time goes on ,if he makes changes like protectionism,then thinking global may have to be adjusted.

[moka]

Bloody Hell...equivalent to 120 Law suits/year in the last 30 years...I would guess that number will rise as he is yet to deal with his political enemies...

US politics to be the best and most watched entertainment show in 2017??...Game of Thrones and Westworld won't stand a chance :cool:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/

Chapter 3
The slot-machine cabinets
Despite the Trumps’ assertion that his their companies only refuse payment to contractors “when somebody does a bad job,” he has sometimes offered to hire those same contractors again. It’s a puzzling turn of events, since most people who have a poor experience with a contractor, and who refuse to pay and even fight the contractor in court, aren’t likely to offer to rehire them.

Nevertheless, such was the case for the Friels. After submitting the final bill for the Plaza casino cabinet-building in 1984, Paul Friel said he got a call asking that his father, Edward, come to the Trump family’s offices at the casino for a meeting. There Edward, and some other contractors, were called in one by one to meet with Donald Trump and his brother, Robert Trump.

“He sat in a room with nine guys,” Paul Friel said. “We found out some of them were carpet guys. Some of them were glass guys. Plumbers. You name it.”
In the meeting, Donald Trump told his father that the company’s work was inferior, Friel said, even though the general contractor on the casino had approved it. The bottom line, Trump told Edward Friel, was the company wouldn't get the final payment. Then, Friel said Trump added something that struck the family as bizarre. Trump told his dad that he could work on other Trump projects in the future.

“Wait a minute,” Paul Friel said, recalling his family's reaction to his dad’s account of the meeting. “Why would the Trump family want a company who they say their work is inferior to work for them in the future?”

“We have hundreds of millions of dollars of construction projects underway. And we have, for the most part, exceptional contractors on them who get paid, and get paid quickly. But it would be irresponsible if my father paid contractors who did lousy work. And he doesn’t do that.”

[skid]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/06/09/donald-trump-unpaid-bills-republican-president-laswuits/85297274/

Chapter 3
The slot-machine cabinets
Despite the Trumps’ assertion that his their companies only refuse payment to contractors “when somebody does a bad job,” he has sometimes offered to hire those same contractors again. It’s a puzzling turn of events, since most people who have a poor experience with a contractor, and who refuse to pay and even fight the contractor in court, aren’t likely to offer to rehire them.

Nevertheless, such was the case for the Friels. After submitting the final bill for the Plaza casino cabinet-building in 1984, Paul Friel said he got a call asking that his father, Edward, come to the Trump family’s offices at the casino for a meeting. There Edward, and some other contractors, were called in one by one to meet with Donald Trump and his brother, Robert Trump.

“He sat in a room with nine guys,” Paul Friel said. “We found out some of them were carpet guys. Some of them were glass guys. Plumbers. You name it.”
In the meeting, Donald Trump told his father that the company’s work was inferior, Friel said, even though the general contractor on the casino had approved it. The bottom line, Trump told Edward Friel, was the company wouldn't get the final payment. Then, Friel said Trump added something that struck the family as bizarre. Trump told his dad that he could work on other Trump projects in the future.

“Wait a minute,” Paul Friel said, recalling his family's reaction to his dad’s account of the meeting. “Why would the Trump family want a company who they say their work is inferior to work for them in the future?”

“We have hundreds of millions of dollars of construction projects underway. And we have, for the most part, exceptional contractors on them who get paid, and get paid quickly. But it would be irresponsible if my father paid contractors who did lousy work. And he doesn’t do that.”

Thats easy--If you can shaft them once--you can no doubt shaft them again

[skid]

Just to throw a curve ball,although it may seem blatantly obvious---Has anyone considered the effect on the market of a Pence presidency?(by peaceful means of course)

[Stranger_Danger]

Just to throw a curve ball,although it may seem blatantly obvious---Has anyone considered the effect on the market of a Pence presidency?(by peaceful means of course)

Yes, and not by peaceful means.

A Pence presidency - with newly appointed Peter Thiel nearby - would deliver a far right Presidency, so far removed from what the "Rust Belt" voted for, as to be comical.

Do some reading on Pence and Thiel - they are basically the Rust Belt laid off autoworker's Anti-Christ!

[percy]

Trump last week.
Earthquake this week.
I guess I remain "well positioned" for next week?

[Lewylewylewy]

Earthquakes yesterday, floods in Wellington today. I checked the met service and apparently it's fiery fissures opening up in the earth tomorrow, which is great because it'll really dry the place out. Trouble is there's a Kraken attack scheduled for Friday, which will really disrupt trading in the CBD.

[couta1]

Earthquakes yesterday, floods in Wellington today. I checked the met service and apparently it's fiery fissures opening up in the earth tomorrow, which is great because it'll really dry the place out. Trouble is there's a Kraken attack scheduled for Friday, which will really disrupt trading in the CBD. I'm about to launch my boat from my driveway to get to work here in Wellington.

[Lewylewylewy]

I'm about to launch my boat from my driveway to get to work here in Wellington.

:( are you in the Hutt?

[arc]

The Chinese backer for Faraday-Future, Electric car (still in development) has withdrawn support for a $1 Billion factory in Nevada. Looks like a $2 Billion factory will be built in China instead. Complex factors at play behind the scenes.

[arc]

Back in the late 1990's the term Irrational Exuberance emerged from discussions about the US economy (referring to the late 1970's early 80's economic decline after the heated growth phase immediately before).

I see the capacity for the present political environment over there to push public sentiment towards that direction. Trump really doesn't have a go-slow button, his view is that caution is for sissies. The outcome (for investors) is typically linked to the emergence of the boom-bust cycle.

To achieve a bust you first need the boom, the 2009 till now Bull run has been good, the potential for it to either continue or under Trumps leadership, kick into a higher gear and get going even faster will ultimately define how long this present cycle can last.

[arc]

How Trump could impact economic growth
http://www.morningstar.com.au/Video/how-trump-could-impact-economic-growth/2656

Interesting read, the comments about "Buy American" are one side of the coin. If international trade partners are mishandled it could also have a tendency to backfire. Its still to early to have clarity on any of the core policies but when the focus comes onto infrastructure, one of the really interesting aspects will be "where" and for "who".


Another prompt (and not the only one found) for the "manufacture-it-at-home" scenario. Just another event in an ongoing list but another reason that many countries are feeling a bit sensitive about all-forms-of-communications.

https://www.cyberscoop.com/android-malware-china-huawei-zte-kryptowire-blu-products/

[bull....]

trump rally still going strong lol all the action is in the US that's for sure - that bounce off 18k on the dow weekly was big time bullish still on track for our 20k target as we mentioned

[macduffy]

trump rally still going strong lol all the action is in the US that's for sure - that bounce off 18k on the dow weekly was big time bullish still on track for our 20k target as we mentioned

Yes. Hardly surprising when we read of the billions of dollars returning to the US from emerging markets.

[bull....]

Yes. Hardly surprising when we read of the billions of dollars returning to the US from emerging markets.

yes and portfolio rebalancing from bonds to equities

[cyclist]

yes and portfolio rebalancing from bonds to equities

Isn't it the other way round? An individual's bond portfolio would have dropped in value (yields have gone up), and their shares have risen. Sell expensive shares and buyer cheaper bonds to rebalance?

edit: p.s. I'm talking about the US Market.

[bull....]

Isn't it the other way round? An individual's bond portfolio would have dropped in value (yields have gone up), and their shares have risen. Sell expensive shares and buyer cheaper bonds to rebalance?

edit: p.s. I'm talking about the US Market.

rates in the us are rising so bonds are less appealing esp if it becomes a rising rate environment , probably to early to tell yet if this is the case so funds will allocate less to bonds as its a losing proposition.

[Bobdn]

Martin Hawes in an article a few months back announced that he had reduced his shares to about 40%. That still a sizable chunk of shares so won't have missed out entirely on some of the best market action in ages.

But what if you sold out a couple of months ago and are sitting on cash now. In the short term, the bulls look firmly in control. What's the next move? I'm still pretty much all in and not looking to sell.

[Bobdn]

But I should add, with the dow at 19000 I'm feeling a little anxious. That's a crazy number.

[bull....]

wow nice week for the us markets with most indices hitting all time highs DJT not far off, Russell is amazing run and the dow less than 5% from our target of 20k lot of people saying it could get there by xmas who knows but sure make a good party lol

[bull....]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-hit-20-000-etfs-163704133.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/these-three-stocks-will-send-the-dow-to-20000.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/10/dow-ending-year-at-20000-wall-street-says-it-will-happen.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-the-dow-is-headed-toward-20000-by-the-end-of-the-year-2016-04-04

guess lots of people like the look of dow 20000.

think about it theres so much money funds have on the sidelines because of fear that they will have to re-invest soon for performance if that is there not already chasing it.
Just the same in NZ really funds have so much cash on the side lines and it is starting to show in there performance - wait to there silly annualised figures catch up and your see what a miserable yr a lot of these funds have had performance wise - was it buffett who said invest when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy a lot of fear there has been this year.

[Raz]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-hit-20-000-etfs-163704133.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/these-three-stocks-will-send-the-dow-to-20000.html
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/10/dow-ending-year-at-20000-wall-street-says-it-will-happen.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-reasons-the-dow-is-headed-toward-20000-by-the-end-of-the-year-2016-04-04

guess lots of people like the look of dow 20000.

think about it theres so much money funds have on the sidelines because of fear that they will have to re-invest soon for performance if that is there not already chasing it.
Just the same in NZ really funds have so much cash on the side lines and it is starting to show in there performance - wait to there silly annualised figures catch up and your see what a miserable yr a lot of these funds have had performance wise - was it buffett who said invest when people are fearful and sell when they are greedy a lot of fear there has been this year.

It been a great year to buy against the fear factor...twenty seven years investing this has been the easiest year to make money although the risk have never been so compelling.

[fish]

It been a great year to buy against the fear factor...twenty seven years investing this has been the easiest year to make money although the risk have never been so compelling.
Too right.
I have never had a year when I have traded so much.
I never buy a stock with the intention of trading-Its always with the intention of buying a stock to provide the best dividend return to allow me to do the things I want to do in my retirement .
However when a stock falls so much for reasons that are unlikely to affect future dividends I have to readjust my portfolio.
Net effect is that I am nearly max on my margin lendings and overweight in shares like CEN so I cannot retire until the sp recovers!

[skid]

It been a great year to buy against the fear factor...twenty seven years investing this has been the easiest year to make money although the risk have never been so compelling.

Stands to reason--If your taking a greater risk ,you should be getting a bigger payout.

[skid]

I reckon theres less and less reasons for the Fed to postpone interest rate rise--It will be interesting the affect that it will have (if it happens) will the market shrug it off as with everything else?

[Bobdn]

Interest rate rise has been baked in for ages.

[skid]

Interest rate rise has been baked in for ages.

The mere mention of it often sends markets in a spin...we'll see--(Its a step in the opposite direction of easy money and no decent alternative to equities

[trader_jackson]

I was wondering if this thread was still around...

Wall Street continues to rise, oil jump no doubt helping today.

So much for a raise in interest rates cancelling the party... now fully priced in and expected.

[bull....]

wall st looking good brushed off Italy referendum 800pts to go on the dow, can understand why its still rising when trump makes statements to business last week around the carrier announcement in America - like you better not move business offshore.

nz bit different though key resigning was a surprise so now election is anyones to win I reckon so a year of uncertainty coming in 2017 - glad I re- allocated a portion funds offshore a while back.

[Raz]

wall st looking good brushed off Italy referendum 800pts to go on the dow, can understand why its still rising when trump makes statements to business last week around the carrier announcement in America - like you better not move business offshore.

nz bit different though key resigning was a surprise so now election is anyones to win I reckon so a year of uncertainty coming in 2017 - glad I re- allocated a portion funds offshore a while back.

Certainly a lot of people have moved an good allocation offshore.

[skid]

well,the market is always right,but it sure feels like a runaway train (on the positive side) --When I look at the potential for Trump to cause real damage(lack of diplomatic skill-tariffs-etc) and the EU what must be on shaky ground---China,the holders of much of US wealth given a good reason to devalue or retaliate against trump--vs--Trump will kick start the economy with tax cuts and infrastructure spending,and basically cutting all benefits to the people--(medical-education-even minimal welfare)--just another day at the office ,I guess?

[Hoop]

Markets exhibit irrational behaviour at market cycle extremes, both top and bottom..
Question:..Are the current markets acting irrationally?

[BIRMANBOY]

Markets never react irrationally..they merely reflect the human capacity (if not love) for that type of behaviour..and not only at cycle extremes LOL
Markets exhibit irrational behaviour at market cycle extremes, both top and bottom..
Question:..Are the current markets acting irrationally?

[BlackPeter]

Markets exhibit irrational behaviour at market cycle extremes, both top and bottom..
Question:..Are the current markets acting irrationally?

Not sure - actually, I think the markets behave currently quite rational. Markets are controlled by people with money. They like the idea of the new US administration making them richer (by reducing taxes and investing into infrastructure, good for business). They don't mind poor US people being screwed by Trump. Markets probably like as well the idea of Putin, Trump, Assad and Erdogan making love and business between each other and don't mind about some poor Syrians being killed. Poor Syrians don't matter and rich Syrians are part of the Assad clan (and live in paradise).

Why do you think markets behave irrational (well, more than they always are)?

[Bjauck]

Not sure - actually, I think the markets behave currently quite rational. Markets are controlled by people with money. They like the idea of the new US administration making them richer (by reducing taxes and investing into infrastructure, good for business). They don't mind poor US people being screwed by Trump. Markets probably like as well the idea of Putin, Trump, Assad and Erdogan making love and business between each other and don't mind about some poor Syrians being killed. Poor Syrians don't matter and rich Syrians are part of the Assad clan (and live in paradise).

Why do you think markets behave irrational (well, more than they always are)?

Are left wing governments better for dividends and right wing governments better for share prices? It could be argued that left wing governments that aid the redistribution of income (via tax cuts etc) to the poorer in society actually help stimulate business. Each dollar at the disposal of a poor person is more likely to go towards purchasing goods and services (and filling government tax coffers). Each extra dollar at the disposal of a rich person is more likely to go into boosting the prices of assets (especially land in the NZ context.) What is good for business and the economy and what is good for the wealthy do not necessarily have to be connected.

Are liberal politics actually better for business? http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/05/why-is-big-business-so-interested-in-left-wing-politics/.

[skid]

Are left wing governments better for dividends and right wing governments better for share prices? It could be argued that left wing governments that aid the redistribution of income (via tax cuts etc) to the poorer in society actually help stimulate business. Each dollar at the disposal of a poor person is more likely to go towards purchasing goods and services (and filling government tax coffers). Each extra dollar at the disposal of a rich person is more likely to go into boosting the prices of assets (especially land in the NZ context.) What is good for business and the economy and what is good for the wealthy do not necessarily have to be connected.

Are liberal politics actually better for business? http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/05/why-is-big-business-so-interested-in-left-wing-politics/.

I think that the right wing policies of cutting back on benefits to the masses and ditching things like medical-environmental controls-anything that stands in the way of oil or other profits ,are what the market is hoping will boost the economy.Morality is another issue.The wild card though is whether a totally inexperienced bloke and his mates will stuff things up to the point of unhinging everything--once a trade war starts its uncharted territory--USA would probably be more comfortable with a real war.---Keep in mind..It doesnt have to benefit the country or even the economy...it only has to benefit the bloke and his mates....We shall see

and yes Hoop ...i personally think markets (people en mass)are acting irrationally atm---(it feels like the ''be fearful when others are greedy'' stage) ..but of course the ''market can remain irrational longer than we can stay solvent'' (choose your cliche)

[Bobdn]

Another day in market paradise.

[bull....]

Another day in market paradise.

yes big day on the wall st :t_up:

[bull....]

If you look at performance of different markets last 60 days can see where all the money is flowing



Security Name

60 Day PERFORMANCE



DOW TRANSPORTS

17.79




OIL


11.57




Russel


10.03




JAPAN


8.29




FRANCE


7.01




DOW INDUSTRIALS

6.56




GERMANY

5.32




AUSTRALIA

5.19




US DOLLAR

5.01




CHINA


4.88




CRB


4.65




LONDON


3.55




S&P 500


3.36




NASDAQ


3.01




BRAZIL


1.71




HIGH YIELD

0.79




EMERGING MARKETS

-1.75




DOW UTILITIES

-4.35




HANG SENG

-4.68




NEW ZEALAND

-5.36




INDIA


-9.67




GOLD


-10.91




TLT


-11.09

[bull....]

roughly since us election



Security Name
30 Day PERFORMANCE


DOW TRANSPORTS
15.8764



Russel

10.8737



JAPAN

7.6353



DOW INDUSTRIALS
7.1558



S&P 500

3.734



FRANCE

3.3888



CHINA

2.9064



GERMANY
2.1323



US DOLLAR
1.7649



NASDAQ

1.1138



CRB

1.0557



AUSTRALIA
0.6486



OIL

0.1995



HIGH YIELD
-0.9723



NEW ZEALAND
-1.6151



LONDON

-1.6446



DOW UTILITIES
-2.8919



HANG SENG
-3.2429



BRAZIL

-4.4311



EMERGING MARKETS
-4.608



INDIA

-6.6035



GOLD

-7.7647



TLT

-9.7667

[Leftfield]

Thanks Bull, your figures highlight what I've been suspecting. Foreign investors withdrawing from NZ in the expectation of greater gains to be had in the USA.

[BlackPeter]

roughly since us election

...


Interesting table, cheers.

Makes one wonder, though ...

Why is the DOW Transports doing twice as well as the DOW Industrials?
What is the growth story behind Japan, France and China?

How can the expected isolation of the US be good for the DOW as well as for Japan and China?

interesting times, for sure ...

[bull....]

looks like nz stocks wont perform until the bottom group rotates back into favour, no xmas rally for NZ?

[couta1]

looks like nz stocks wont perform until the bottom group rotates back into favour, no xmas rally for NZ? No problem, buy the bargins now and sit back and wait for the fair winds of January to blow.

[Hoop]

Hmmm..Ultilities are lagging indicator stocks and termed defensive stocks....They have been out of favour for a while now (NZ incl) ..with that in mind it seems investors are once again enthusiastic ...The Global Bull has grown another set of legs..

[Joshuatree]

Bugger ;contrariwise I've had an invisible instruction/ instinct/ caution to build some cash ;in Aus anyways.

[skid]

Bugger ;contrariwise I've had an invisible instruction/ instinct/ caution to build some cash ;in Aus anyways.

I dont think one can criticize that ,the signs are there,just no ones paying any heed to them(have you noticed how many times headlines have used the words ''shrugged off'' lately)---We cant be right all the time---Im in New Zealand and have Gold--not to flash on that chart posted:p

[peat]

Hmmm..Ultilities are lagging indicator stocks and termed defensive stocks....They have been out of favour for a while now (NZ incl) ..with that in mind it seems investors are once again enthusiastic ...The Global Bull has grown another set of legs..
the fifth and final wave??
the law of alternation would suggest it wont be too strong (unlike the third which had massive legs ) but yes its still a bull as per my SPX post re November monthly candle being big and green.

[Hoop]

the fifth and final wave??
the law of alternation would suggest it wont be too strong (unlike the third which had massive legs ) but yes its still a bull as per my SPX post re November monthly candle being big and green.

So the Elliot 5th wave ends around ?? ...2400 or 2500? and then its all turns to custard?

[peat]

So the Elliot 5th wave ends around ?? ...2400 or 2500? and then its all turns to custard?

yeh, about that level - based on the first wave being around 700 points long then the 5th could be similar and would take it to 2500

8508

[Lewylewylewy]

I don't think it's going to come good until just after the first reporting season comes out.

[bull....]

the trump santa rally is still rolling on dow 20k only 400pts to go to meet the target breakout from the 2yr consolidation :t_up: thata be 2500 pts from the initial trump thump hahaha actually funny is that looks like some big money got in early for the trump win only have to look how the dow transports took off even before the election.

Nz struggling around the 6900 level guess the NZX needs some more growth stocks to get a balanced market.

[Bobdn]

This is the article I referred to earlier in this thread.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/82365773/Martin-Hawes-Take-shelter-against-a-financial-storm

Martin Hawes, who seems likes a sensible guy, reduced his exposure to equities 6 months ago. I probably should do the same thing but I think I've become too greedy and I'm having such a good time. This last month has been just so. much. fun.

The music will stop one day and I'll be left without a chair. But until then, here's to a big Santa Rally!!

[bull....]

This is the article I referred to earlier in this thread.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/82365773/Martin-Hawes-Take-shelter-against-a-financial-storm

Martin Hawes, who seems likes a sensible guy, reduced his exposure to equities 6 months ago. I probably should do the same thing but I think I've become too greedy and I'm having such a good time. This last month has been just so. much. fun.

The music will stop one day and I'll be left without a chair. But until then, here's to a big Santa Rally!!

his timing was a little off but the ideas suggested where sound in hindsight.
Most bull markets don't end when such fear is around look at all the cash funds have sitting earning nothing at the moment , there are probably funds around who have missed the current rally in disbelief bit like a possum in headlights lol so anyway ill stay greedy while the going good lol but always remain viligant. hey dow up another 90pts hohoho

[Bobdn]

Do you remember this recommendation from Andrew Roberts of the Royal Bank of Scotland in January this year?

In a note to its clients (http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1452594796380/European-Rates-Weekly-08011.pdf) the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/12/sell-everything-ahead-of-stock-market-crash-say-rbs-economists

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/01/the-author-of-the-rbs-sell-everything-note-has-been-predicting-disaster-for-the-last-five-years/

I think we'll see some references to Andrew Roberts and his prediction as we approach the New Year. Sure hindsight is a great thing but what a terrible recommendation it turned out to be.

[Hectorplains]

This quarter has been the worst in 6+ years for the NZX Top 50 Index - it is down by more than 8% while other world markets have cracked on well.

[Bobdn]

Sure, but it's been so good over the last few years, it doesn't really matter.

[xafalcon]

I think it depends when you joined the market

If that was in 2010, then the recent decline should be less problematic

But if it was 3 months ago, it's a significant hit to absorb........

[bull....]

maybe santa arrived in nz 3 days of gains? anyway dow consolidating at highs

[Baa_Baa]

What a terrific end to the year, DOW pushing 20,000, NZX solid gains, many here would not have believed it, me included. It's like all the crap in the world was put on mute, but not that its gone away.

Finally a lucid article in the Herald regarding one of our largest trading partners. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11772045

[skid]

What a terrific end to the year, DOW pushing 20,000, NZX solid gains, many here would not have believed it, me included. It's like all the crap in the world was put on mute, but not that its gone away.

Finally a lucid article in the Herald regarding one of our largest trading partners. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11772045

No one would have believed it indeed--its almost as if we have had a year that the unthinkable became the norm--Anything that could have happened, did happen....So its pretty hard to fault anyone really,while tipping our hat to those that have enjoyed the spoils.
But to start to think of this all as the ''new norm'' may by definition be ignoring that ''unthinkable'' that has so well and truly played out.
I believe we are entering the age of conflict, and with so much riding on knee jerk decisions and avoidance of loss of face,Id be keeping one eye out for just about anything. I only hope that it will not escape the economic arena (trade war?)and plunge into life threatening situations.

The new year should be interesting,especially the first half as Grump finds his feet and sets his plan in action..what ever it is,in terms of extremity. But thats after the break...enjoy

[bull....]

wow, pretty much tounched 20k dow.
anyway still in a consolidation i reckon 19750 - 20k see what happens a

[Baa_Baa]

Friday 20th January is Trumps' inauguration day, which is our Saturday so our market won't know which way it might go prior to close. Let's hope that the topping process (indecision) in the DOW and other US bourses recently isn't accompanied by some god awful acceptance speech which reverses or undermines the sentiment relying on his massive election promises of investment in the USA. It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

[peat]

It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.
just buy the Vix?

I am quite sure DT is long the Vix. Bigly long. Uge

The clip from SNL with Baldwin doing an impersonation is fantastic.

[RGR367]

Friday 20th January is Trumps' inauguration day, which is our Saturday so our market won't know which way it might go prior to close. Let's hope that the topping process (indecision) in the DOW and other US bourses recently isn't accompanied by some god awful acceptance speech which reverses or undermines the sentiment relying on his massive election promises of investment in the USA. It could be a black Monday here if that happens. Eyes on and fingers on the trigger.

Gut feel says DOW is on a downhill after his inauguration. Though not completely black Monday yet for us, it will turn darker come mid of the week. Such is the power of trumping :p

[Lewylewylewy]

I've changed m my outlook for the year. With brexit pushing the pound down, and Trumps import taxes, who is NZ going to export to?

I'm selling out of some of my portfolio to get ready for the bargains to come. Keeping some cash in shares

[janner]

I've changed m my outlook for the year. With brexit pushing the pound down, and Trumps import taxes, who is NZ going to export to?

I'm selling out of some of my portfolio to get ready for the bargains to come. Keeping some cash in shares

America is in the high 50's position as far as trade with NZ is concerned. Our beef is usually Hamburger meat. So the lowly paid will still be eating it. Lamb is high quality and the rich will not stop eating.

America's possible trade war with China is more of a concern to us IMO. Even then a great deal of our exports to China are off season produce to high end customers and such goods as Quality baby formula will always be wanted.

[bull....]

last 5 days people rotating back to some of the worst performers after trump won.


Security Name

Close

5 Day



BRAZIL

63783.21

8.9338



GOLD

1202

5.9031



NEW ZEALAND

7074.94

4.6552



LONDON

7327.13

4.4995



AUSTRALIA

5748.4

3.8949



TLT

121.31

3.2426



HANG SENG

22718.15

3.167



INDIA

27288

3.0163



Nasdaq

5574.12

2.3808



Dow Utilities

657

1.7028



EEM

36.68

1.41



CRB

194.53

1.3335



OIL

52.64

1.3282



GERMANY

11554.71

1.3215



FRANCE

4882.18

1.0119



HYG

87.32

0.9597



S&P 500

2274.64

0.6687



Dow Indust

19885

0.653



CHINA

3103

-0.6086



Russel

1372.05

-1.1541



JAPAN

19095.24

-1.5768



Dow Transports

9202

-2.1792

[Lewylewylewy]

Hmmm maybe it won't be so bad. UK may recover if trade agreements are good, and Trump may fail to execute his desires.

Though I think any whomping of any big industry in NZ would be significant.

Probably is not as bad as I first thought.

Interesting that Theresa May has corrected her tone on the events to come. Maybe she's learning that you have to be careful how you present things.

[skid]

Hmmm maybe it won't be so bad. UK may recover if trade agreements are good, and Trump may fail to execute his desires.

Though I think any whomping of any big industry in NZ would be significant.

Probably is not as bad as I first thought.

Interesting that Theresa May has corrected her tone on the events to come. Maybe she's learning that you have to be careful how you present things.

I think that trade agreement is a little sweetner for Brexit--(still think that the best way to get a handle on trumps trade scenario is to see what benefits him ,personally.)

[Lewylewylewy]

I think that trade agreement is a little sweetner for Brexit--(still think that the best way to get a handle on trumps trade scenario is to see what benefits him ,personally.)

UK:
I thought the trade agreements were a case of trying to set up agreements with countries so they don't lose out when they leave the EU, which has it's own trade agreements they won't have access to anymore. Ways in which I see the UK losing on Brexit is loss of trade agreements (restriction on purchasing = less resources for businesses relying on external sources and disruption. Restrictions on exporting = business closures). This means less jobs in the UK (which might be ok if the immigrants are forced to leave, which they won't) and inflation and unavailability of some goods. Could be ugly if trade agreement negotiations don't go well.

US:
So far, to my knowledge, the main thing Trump's been doing is using his position to negotiate building permits with foreign powers that previously denied him. I'd say it's pretty difficult to align your interests with his financially.

He does however, seem to have a bee in his bonnet about several political & economic issues that I think he's driving from a personal (egocentric) perspective - what he thinks America needs to do to improve. Mainly these are poorly planned and tactlessly executed ideas that he hasn't researched or fully thought out. How much conviction / ability he will have executing these is another matter. If you can work that out, you can predict what will happen and make your money buying on the dips.

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

[skid]

UK:
I thought the trade agreements were a case of trying to set up agreements with countries so they don't lose out when they leave the EU, which has it's own trade agreements they won't have access to anymore. Ways in which I see the UK losing on Brexit is loss of trade agreements (restriction on purchasing = less resources for businesses relying on external sources and disruption. Restrictions on exporting = business closures). This means less jobs in the UK (which might be ok if the immigrants are forced to leave, which they won't) and inflation and unavailability of some goods. Could be ugly if trade agreement negotiations don't go well.

US:
So far, to my knowledge, the main thing Trump's been doing is using his position to negotiate building permits with foreign powers that previously denied him. I'd say it's pretty difficult to align your interests with his financially.

He does however, seem to have a bee in his bonnet about several political & economic issues that I think he's driving from a personal (egocentric) perspective - what he thinks America needs to do to improve. Mainly these are poorly planned and tactlessly executed ideas that he hasn't researched or fully thought out. How much conviction / ability he will have executing these is another matter. If you can work that out, you can predict what will happen and make your money buying on the dips.

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

I believe Trump is more or less coming to the UKs rescue because he likes Brexit (which was what I was alluding to and ties in with your first point)

[Bjauck]

I believe Trump is more or less coming to the UKs rescue because he likes Brexit (which was what I was alluding to and ties in with your first point) Will the UK actually exist for much longer - Scotland hates Brexit and Trump in equal measure! Also Brexit UK may need free trade more than Trump, who seems not to be overly keen on it.

[Bjauck]

...

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things). The government won't have to worry about getting out of it. It is a question of when house prices stop rising. Interest rates, supply issues, robust wages and foreign demand have provided a perfect storm.

The UK out of the EU will be an easier country to do trade deals with....just the one set of interests rather than all the competing interests in a cartel of many nations. Of course it won't be as desirable a business destination without its current access to the EU market.

[xafalcon]

I think that NZ is looking at a recession in the next few years, or if there's no recession we will trundle along nicely. I have no idea which will occur, but I do believe that the biggest thing keeping us going is the influx of immigrants and house price inflation. Each bringing more money to families by inflation and more money in the country. Not a great way to run an economy, but a hard one to get out of (not blaming anyone for this situation, politically - just stating the way I see things).

I read the NZ economic pulse differently.

The consensus is that the world economy is improving = more discretionary spending money = more tourism income for NZ (our largest export earner, a hugely significant employer and source of plenty of extra GST)

Dairy trade pricing is returning to long term averages (our second largest export earner) = greater income for farmers = expansion for support services & industries

Immigration continuing at elevated levels for some time yet = more people = more demand for housing & services (another significant source of employment)

Reducing unemployment = more tax take & corresponding reduction in welfare expenditure = more infrastructure spend (another significant source of employment) & reducing personal taxation

Wheeler's time at the RB coming to an end = less hawkish replacement likely = higher growth through lower interest rates (than they would be under current RB governor)

Improving NZ economy = likely credit rating upgrade to AAA = lower cost of borrowing

Even external shocks could be managed better by NZ than most other economies since our deficit is so much smaller than many other countries and our monetary policy settings have room to move downwards

All the signs I see are pointing to onwards and upwards for NZ inc

[Lewylewylewy]

All things remaining the same, I agree... It's the change I'm concerned about. Lots of potential changes in the coming few years.

Addendum: Really? Graeme Wheelers time is coming to an end? 😞 I thought he did a good job.

[couta1]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

[janner]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

Agree :-)))))

Onward and upward.. :-))))))))))))))

[janner]

How refreshing..

Few really know what is coming... :-))))

[winner69]

All things remaining the same, I agree... It's the change I'm concerned about. Lots of potential changes in the coming few years.

Addendum: Really? Graeme Wheelers time is coming to an end? 😞 I thought he did a good job.

Wheeler was shocker

His legacy will be a bust part of the boom/bust cycle he has created.

2018/2019 might not be pretty

[Bjauck]

Wheeler was shocker

His legacy will be a bust part of the boom/bust cycle he has created.

2018/2019 might not be pretty
Was Wheeler stuck between a rock and a hard place? Interest rates up=stifling business:rates down and inflating residential housing price bubble. So LVR up:reduce demand but shut out first home owners without rich families.

Where was Key and the government?

[JeremyALD]

There will be no Black Monday this coming week, that's been Trumped, its onwards and upwards as we head into reporting season.

Agree Couta not sure why some are worried.

[RupertBear]

Agree Couta not sure why some are worried.

Wished I shared your optimism guys, Trump is a loose canon so things could go very wrong very quickly imo. ;)

[Lewylewylewy]

Wheeler was shocker

His legacy will be a bust part of the boom/bust cycle he has created.

2018/2019 might not be pretty

lol I don't think it was his fault. I think he had to deal with problems beyond his control, which you're associating him with.

[Zaphod]

Wished I shared your optimism guys, Trump is a loose canon so things could go very wrong very quickly imo. ;)

There-in lies the problem. While Trump's economic policies of lower corporate taxes and massive infrastructure spending will no doubt will invigorate the economy at least for the short time, his erratic nature will cause great harm both domestically and internationally, which could easily lead to economic turmoil.

Will Monday see a massive fall in the markets? Probably not. But what are the longer term implications of Trump's policies? Not good IMO.

[Ace]

Wished I shared your optimism guys, Trump is a loose canon so things could go very wrong very quickly imo. ;)

He may be a loose cannon although there are advisers and others who will keep him in check, re: his policies touted during his campaign and how he has quickly backtracked on many of them.

[winner69]

lol I don't think it was his fault. I think he had to deal with problems beyond his control, which you're associating him with.


.......but he made unnecessary cuts to the OCR when the economy was pinging along nicely.

Too much focus on the NZD

His legacy will be the big bust in 2018/2019

[xafalcon]

lol I don't think it was his fault. I think he had to deal with problems beyond his control, which you're associating him with.

Wheeler focused far too heavily on trying to cool the housing market (caused by a shortage of supply, nothing else, economics 101 - price v's supply) under the guise of "financial stability" (his secondary focus)

Meanwhile inflation was totally out of control (his primary focus)

Consequences were higher interest rates and exchange rates than necessary = harming the economy, not helping it

He did not have to deal with the housing market (I contend he has actually accomplished little in that regards, except to cause significant harm to first home buyers). He chose to enter this unwinnable battle, and deserves the flak for several sub-par years of growth in NZ.

If he had focused on his primary objective of keeping inflation on average at 2% and within a range of 1-3%, interest rates would have been lower and growth higher. I contend that house prices would not be entirely dissimilar to what they are now as banks would almost certainly have tightened their own lending criteria sooner. Think about it. Banks know their clients better than RBNZ. Banks don't want people defaulting. Banks have a responsibility to their shareholders to only enter into investments (eg home loans) that are productive. So banks were always going to self-limit when people started asking for loans that were too large for their income to support

[Biscuit]

xafalcon: "... higher interest rates and exchange rates than necessary = harming the economy, not helping it"
winner69: "...but he made unnecessary cuts to the OCR when the economy was pinging along nicely..."

He really was worse than useless then!

[Lewylewylewy]

Trump's nature is that of a bully. I don't think advisors will keep him in check completely, I think he'll manipulate them. Some risk there IMO.

[arc]

Whats up with this weather, 0.5 meter of snow on the ski field and 1 meter of snow on the Sahara desert ???.

The "global weather pattern change scenario" described by climate change advocates is looking to be within the ball park...

This has the potential to impact crop production, globally... both for human consumption items and animal feed/food sources.

I think I will keep a closer eye on the data & the trend, as some items may suffer reduced supply.

[Hoop]

Whats up with this weather, 0.5 meter of snow on the ski field and 1 meter of snow on the Sahara desert ???.

The "global weather pattern change scenario" described by climate change advocates is looking to be within the ball park...

This has the potential to impact crop production, globally... both for human consumption items and animal feed/food sources.

I think I will keep a closer eye on the data & the trend, as some items may suffer reduced supply.

I guess the anti-trump brigade (aka swamp dwellers) will find a way to blame trump for the latest weather quirks..
I used to watch the weather patterns and trade e.g Heat waves/drought in the US corn belt and frosts in Brazil (Coffee)..even dabbled with soya beans...

A worthwhile bookmark would be IndexMundi website..I love playing around on this website to check for all sorts of commodities in all sorts of countries..e.g..Click here (http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=cn&commodity=powdered-whole-milk&graph=production) to see how dry whole milk production has increased in China over the years..It has a very long way to go, so no worries yet, but striving towards the self-sufficiency goal could be seen as a scary future long term problem for NZ Dairy Farmers in a couple of decades....Good news for NZ is the GFC helped stuff up China's Whole dry milk powder export market growth

[arc]

Refined self interest takes a step forward...

US President Donald Trump signed executive orders clearing the way for the controversial Dakota Access and Keystone XL oil pipelines to move forward... http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/88738876/trump-advances-dakota-access-keystone-xl-oil-pipelines

[Baa_Baa]

The market likes Trumps promises and action to restore investment etc to their economy, despite the long term consequences. The market is not confused with self enrichment over moral fortitude. Follow the money while it flows, there is no Black Monday anymore, until there is. It could happen quickly when it happens but right now it's happy days.

[arc]

The market likes Trumps promises and action to restore investment etc to their economy, despite the long term consequences. The market is not confused with self enrichment over moral fortitude. Follow the money while it flows, there is no Black Monday anymore, until there is. It could happen quickly when it happens but right now it's happy days.


[The market is not confused with self enrichment over moral fortitude. Follow the money while it flows, there is no Black Monday anymore,...]

Are you sure your not his speech writer?....
oh that's right .. he doesn't make speeches, he twitters.

[bull....]

breakout on the dow above 20k :t_up: range implys should go to 20250

[Lewylewylewy]

Also it looks like brexit isn't going to happen... My original guess I made at the time is the vote is coming true... That the UK would vote to leave, then the govt wouldn't have a vote and Vito it... Like the anti smacking law in NZ.

Good news.

[winner69]

breakout on the dow above 20k :t_up: range implys should go to 20250

He a good guy that guy Trump

S&P500 about to break 2300 - also a new all time high

No worries (at least for a while)

[mondograss]

Also it looks like brexit isn't going to happen... My original guess I made at the time is the vote is coming true... That the UK would vote to leave, then the govt wouldn't have a vote and Vito it... Like the anti smacking law in NZ.

Good news.

Actually since Labour in the UK have already pledged to vote for Brexit, the govt will almost certainly have the numbers to pass the requisite legislation. But it does perhaps mean there'll be more negotiation among the parties about what Brexit will look like and that's a good thing.

[bull....]

He a good guy that guy Trump

S&P500 about to break 2300 - also a new all time high

No worries (at least for a while)

trump good for markets a , anyway same strategy from 08 still working that is buy every dip hahha till it stops working a lol same nz

[ratkin]

trump good for markets a , anyway same strategy from 08 still working that is buy every dip hahha till it stops working a lol same nz

How
long before other markets realise that what is good for the US is no longer good for the rest of us

[BlackPeter]

How
long before other markets realise that what is good for the US is no longer good for the rest of us

Actually - it won't be good for the US either ... their industry will become quite fast uncompetitive lacking foreign competition - and you can exploit the environment just that much before it collapses (China and their killer smog being a good example).

[winner69]

.......but he made unnecessary cuts to the OCR when the economy was pinging along nicely.

Too much focus on the NZD

His legacy will be the big bust in 2018/2019

Wheeler got a problem now with CPI higher than expected

Probably do his usual thing and not believe it - it can't be so - and keep OCR at current levels for a while yet

His legacy will be the pain in 2018/2019

[bull....]

what a nice week definitely a black Monday for the bears who used to lurk on this thread. anyway top of the long term channel I have is 21000 at this time. im sure trump will get us there just need a few good tweets

[skid]

trump good for markets a , anyway same strategy from 08 still working that is buy every dip hahha till it stops working a lol same nz

Exactly--they say market is overbough so cull the bad stuff and buy good stuff on the dips--so Im assuming it will take more than an initial dip or Trump doing something a bit shocking to change the mindset (later causing the former?)

[winner69]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

[RupertBear]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

Not sure its irrelevant at all winner :(

[Hoop]

Totally irrelevant but I find this chart interesting

Not totally irrelevent Winner...I find the Market behaviour (group human behaviour) interesting...
Although your chart shows an extreme (hyperinflation currency destruction depression through to World War, it still shows to a lesser extent what a political paradigm shift to "drain the swamp" and fix a broken system can do to Markets..It seems to spark a bit of life into the markets which happens to be contrary to current thinking (or swamp dwellers thinking which at the time still influences the public's thinking)...
Note how long that cyclical bull market lasted...about 10 years...The bull looked to had died when Hitler's (and his party) image went from Economic Saviour to Egotistical Maniac but to the contary ..it took the markets another 2 to 3 years before "reality" hit home.....All to do with market sentiment and public euphoria..eh...A nice example that its never different this time...and...the market regaining it's sanity will take much longer than you think..

[blobbles]

Does anyone else see a double top coming for NZX?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENZ50&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Lets admit it, we are ripe for a correction. I know double tops for individual stocks aren't a good look, does it also apply across the whole market? They do usually signal the end of a bull market...

[BlackPeter]

Does anyone else see a double top coming for NZX?

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENZ50&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=

Lets admit it, we are ripe for a correction. I know double tops for individual stocks aren't a good look, does it also apply across the whole market? They do usually signal the end of a bull market...

Sure - might end up either in a head and shoulders or in a double top - or it might just continue to rise.

Problem with these patterns is - you never know until they are completed ... so we can just be vigilant. At this stage I would not exclude any of the options - the Trump factor might well be good for another couple of years of rising stock prices (just refer to winners recent post re the German CDAX 1930 to 1950) ... however - whatever it is, any further rise will in my view only aggravate the inevitable downturn at the end ...

[Brain]

When I look at that chart I can see that we have passed through multiple occasions where a double top could have occurred. I think that double tops can only be recognised in hindsight after the damage has been done and the market has then taken such a negative view that the previous high is not going to be exceeded. I am sceptical about a lot of TA but particularly double tops.
Having said that I suppose the NZ sharemarket will now go into a long recession which would be good because then we can all pick up high yielding stocks. The share market is about sentiment (TA) but is underpinned by dividend yield (FA). I think FA is the best way to go and is good hence the expression "Sweet FA"

Brain

[Hoop]

When I look at that chart I can see that we have passed through multiple occasions where a double top could have occurred. I think that double tops can only be recognised in hindsight after the damage has been done and the market has then taken such a negative view that the previous high is not going to be exceeded. I am sceptical about a lot of TA but particularly double tops.
Having said that I suppose the NZ sharemarket will now go into a long recession which would be good because then we can all pick up high yielding stocks. The share market is about sentiment (TA) but is underpinned by dividend yield (FA). I think FA is the best way to go and is good hence the expression "Sweet FA"

Brain

As with all chart patterns once formed there is a degree of hindsight involved....A Chartist is well aware they will never get near the top nor get in near the bottom...Many investors fancies themselves at buying near the bottoms but in reality seldom do...so no difference..eh

Brain..FA and TA are investor tools..to get the best investment results both are at your disposal to use...I personally use FA to find a good quality stock then use TA to "time" (signal) my entries and sadly as it sometimes occurs an exit..

Brain..The good thing is, a double top pattern is formed and identified well before the damage (capitulation) occurs....

Most people without adequate knowledge about TA or how it works fail to understand what the discipline methodology is all about...The TA discipline tells you about the market participants (who are mostly fundamentally driven), who they are, and how they are feeling (sentiment) ..all this indicates their trading behaviour..Trading behaviour shows up as digital data which can displayed visually on charts, indicator bars, and the like, or more complexly via sophisticated computer programs..Once trading behaviour is digitalised a TAer can simulate all sorts of outcomes and possibilities, e.g forming statistical probabilities using history....It doesn't stop there as infinite amount of analysis can be done with digital..such as identifying very powerful variables affecting that Market such as primary Drivers secondary drivers tertiary drivers..For example astute very experienced (non TA) investors sub-consciously know when to exist certain industry sectors well before bad results are known because they sense (gut feel) the driving forces have changed...something which the "rest of us" have to number crunch to analyse/wait for updated results, and realise too late..

Statistical correlations is the name of the game..however the media only assumes (often incorrectly) and sadly it's readers believes and learns into its "false logic" and forward looking crystal balls....so TA can alert you (indicators diverging) to possible very logical looking malformation with a lot of followers (believers).

When a double top pattern has been formed (as with all patterns and events) a chartist can then apply statistical odds as to which way the market is likely to go. Remember there is still a chance the market can rise after a double top pattern has been formed but the odds are against you..See Bulkowski's site for the odds (http://thepatternsite.com/aadt.html)

Chart patterns is a form of TA because chartists usually use chart indicators to reinforce the trending movements of the price thereby attempt to more actually determine the statistical odds of a near future happening..

In other words..if you were an investor looking to gain 10% in an investment with 30% odds against losing 20% (25% to recuperate) with 70% odds..would you leave your money in.....No!!..because Investors use risk v reward..If you do stay invested (because the current results or fundamentally very good) you are still playing against the odds with poor reward.

Most FAers ride out the bumps and holes in the shareprice...or if a downtrend grabs hold decide they bunker down and blame irrationality..

TA Discipline assumes that the market knows something you don't...Getting caught in a bad downtrend, one faces an impossible stressful decision "Do I sell now and see the price recover?" or "hold on and suffer more misery as the fall continues?".....Strict TAers never face this decision...They have a lot of small losses but never big ones...hence the saying, "quit your losses early and let your profits run"

Chartists (using patterns) play the market using the "house" odds...I personally use charts and invest in shares with a 70% chance of winning (most good odds happen with a stocks in an already established uptrend)....if I invest at lower winning odds there has to be a higher reward to so....It pays to know about the Risk v Reward methodology, a discipline in its own right.

[RupertBear]

Thanks for your words of wisdom on this Hoop, much appreciated :)

[Brain]

Thanks Hoop for your explanation. I would be interested to know how many Buy and sell Signals you would see in the above graph.

[Lewylewylewy]

This is an interesting read: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jul/15/donald-trumps-top-10-campaign-promises/

It's interesting that the article was from mid last year, and essentially says that Trump won't do any of the things he says he will. Trump has basically started hacking through that list at high speed.
Clearly laws aren't doing him (he sacks any public servant that gets in his way, most will be scared by the public beheading of the attorney general). Also the expedience of the implementation of his policies shows that no more research goes into his ideas before he pushes them through.
This guy is brash and brutal in the way he works. The next things on his list are squashing trade with Mexico and Ghina (presumably some big taxes going to happen there); reducing taxes for all in the US; and taking oil sites from ISIS.

The last one will be interesting, because it will depend where Trump thinks ISIS are located. Also where the oil is may depend on when this policy is implemented... If they create fiscal issues in the US by reducing tax and poorly implemented trade policies, they could do another Iraq.

Iraq: the twin towers were attacked (close eyes and point finger East) it was almost certainly, probably Sadam Hussein. We want blood. He must die.

I wouldn't be shocked if America started invading any middle Eastern countries with oil and just seizing the lot, then using that to fill the holes in the wallet lining.

Then again, he hasn't yet applied new import taxes... So maybe not everything is as easy for him to do? So much uncertainty and volatility.

[winner69]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/30/stock-markets-and-the-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

[BlackPeter]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/30/stock-markets-and-the-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

Might be quite relevant. Money is always trying to optimise the risk / reward ratio - and Trump is clearly increasing the risks. whether he is increasing the rewards as well is questionable, given that he seems to be highly incompetent to run anything - and certainly not a country.

I think particularly foreign owners of US shares should be concerned. Obviously - they don't fall under the "America first" policy - and who knows, maybe they soon can't access their US funds anymore? Its easy these days in the US to remove foreigners rights by one stroke of the idiots pen - ask the 4 star Iraqi general who was leading the US troops in Iraq - he is not anymore allowed to visit his family in the US.

[Raz]

Probably totally irrelevant but why we could see a S&P500 at 1,000

Stock Market and the Rule of Law
http://thereformedbroker.com/2017/01/30/stock-markets-and-the-rule-of-law/



Extracts -

The valuation of firms in any market also depends on the degree to which investors’ rights are protected. Because a firm’s share price reflects the cash flow per share that non-controlling shareholders expect to receive, this share price should fall if non-controlling shareholders expect expropriation by either corrupt officials or controlling shareholders. To the extent that official corruption and poor corporate governance distort the decision-making of the firm’s management, they also destroy shareholder value.

And ....


The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times.

In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world. The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses.

Similarly, China’s PE is 7.2 times – one third the valuation of US companies – and its CAPE is 12.8 – less than half that of the United States stock market. The country has been taking steps to liberalize its financial system and corporate environment, but these things happen very slowly. Bear in mind that official statistics put the growth rate of China’s economy at more than double that of the US. Again, governance issues and fear of political interference help the world’s second largest economy earn quite a discount for its stock valuations.

This is the unwritten reason i exited my US stock..especially all in my name. I think a discount will occur over time possibly set off with a partial flow of Sovereign funds out of the US. I now only hold US investment in a US legal structure with other US residents..

[bull....]

nice day on the us markets after a brief dip

[skid]

nice day on the us markets after a brief dip

Only causualty--the Dodd Frank law (the one thats suppose to help protect us from the next GFC)

[BlackPeter]

Only causualty--the Dodd Frank law (the one thats suppose to help protect us from the next GFC)

True - noticed that as well. He just has to give his billionaire friends at wall street some gifts.

Unless the senate discovers that they have some spine (and I doubt that) - lets be prepared for an outrageous continuation of the current bull run, ended by a deep cliff ... Trump just creating the basis for all sorts of debt bubbles, shady speculation and GFC mark 2!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/business/dealbook/trump-congress-financial-regulations.html

[winner69]

True - noticed that as well. He just has to give his billionaire friends at wall street some gifts.

Unless the senate discovers that they have some spine (and I doubt that) - lets be prepared for an outrageous continuation of the current bull run, ended by a deep cliff ... Trump just creating the basis for all sorts of debt bubbles, shady speculation and GFC mark 2!

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/business/dealbook/trump-congress-financial-regulations.html

As well doing away with the need for oil/ resource companies to disclose payments to foreign governments .....and oal companies can now dispose waste into streams

[Bobdn]

Only causualty--the Dodd Frank law (the one thats suppose to help protect us from the next GFC)

Here's an interesting alternative view. Less government intervention means less chance of another GFC. Give capitalism a chance. Skid are you in or out of the market, I can't remember. What are you primarily invested in?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2013/09/19/the-financial-crisis-was-a-failure-of-government-not-free-markets/#53d7da48449e

[moka]

Here's an interesting alternative view. Less government intervention means less chance of another GFC. Give capitalism a chance. Skid are you in or out of the market, I can't remember. What are you primarily invested in?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2013/09/19/the-financial-crisis-was-a-failure-of-government-not-free-markets/#53d7da48449e

"Large majorities have long told pollsters that Wall Street is greedy, selfish, and unethical,” says AEI. Self-interest is . . . immoral? So self-sacrifice and misery are moral ideals? In fact, when guided by reason and the long-range view, self-interest is both moral and practical: greed for knowledge, wealth, health, culture, and well-being is the motivation for achievement and prosperity. Greed doesn’t mean exploiting others but trading with them, value-for-value, to mutual advantage."

Greed is Good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw
Gordon Gekko "Greed is Good" Full Speech *read the description*


http://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechwallstreet.html
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we're not here to indulge in fantasy, but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market, when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company!

The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed - for lack of a better word - is good
Greed is right
Greed works
Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit
Greed, in all of its forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind.

[Bobdn]

"Large majorities have long told pollsters that Wall Street is greedy, selfish, and unethical,” says AEI. Self-interest is . . . immoral? So self-sacrifice and misery are moral ideals? In fact, when guided by reason and the long-range view, self-interest is both moral and practical: greed for knowledge, wealth, health, culture, and well-being is the motivation for achievement and prosperity. Greed doesn’t mean exploiting others but trading with them, value-for-value, to mutual advantage."

Greed is Good

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw
Gordon Gekko "Greed is Good" Full Speech *read the description*


http://www.americanrhetoric.com/MovieSpeeches/moviespeechwallstreet.html
Well, ladies and gentlemen, we're not here to indulge in fantasy, but in political and economic reality. America, America has become a second-rate power. Its trade deficit and its fiscal deficit are at nightmare proportions. Now, in the days of the free market, when our country was a top industrial power, there was accountability to the stockholder. The Carnegies, the Mellons, the men that built this great industrial empire, made sure of it because it was their money at stake. Today, management has no stake in the company!

The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed - for lack of a better word - is good
Greed is right
Greed works
Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit
Greed, in all of its forms - greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge - has marked the upward surge of mankind.


Yes, he was definitely channeling Gecko there :) I do like this quote from the article:

"Many people still attribute the financial crisis of 2008 to “greed,” Wall Street (http://www.forbes.com/wall-street/), and free-market capitalism (https://owa.apptixemail.net/owa/UrlBlockedError.aspx), even though the real cause –which has yet to be acknowledged, let alone curbed or removed – was government intervention in markets (http://www.forbes.com/markets/). This included the Federal Reserve’s disruptive manipulations (http://tinyurl.com/44kdrbq) of interest rates, plus massive subsidies and regulations in housing, banking, and mortgages. For years government policy (http://www.forbes.com/policy/) promoted reckless financial practices (aka, “moral hazard”) and then made things worse (http://tinyurl.com/42hryx4) by bailing out the worst miscreants."

[Lewylewylewy]

French election in may will be an interesting read. If Le Pen gets in, she will break away from the Euro. That'll create "buying opportunities". I wonder if this is the collapse of Europe? Probably not.

Kinda stupid really. Bunch of rules made up in Europe to allow people into the country, who come from countries where they have a liberal view of what Europeans would call crime, a disposition towards manors that are considered undesirable and a hated for the people of the countries there moving into. Then everyone wants out of Europe, not to get out of Europe, but to stop a law that no one wants.

[Bjauck]

French election in may will be an interesting read. If Le Pen gets in, she will break away from the Euro. That'll create "buying opportunities". I wonder if this is the collapse of Europe? Probably not.

Kinda stupid really. Bunch of rules made up in Europe to allow people into the country, who come from countries where they have a liberal view of what Europeans would call crime, a disposition towards manors that are considered undesirable and a hated for the people of the countries there moving into. Then everyone wants out of Europe, not to get out of Europe, but to stop a law that no one wants.

I think it may come down to a race between Fillon and Le Pen. The French have the "advantage" of seeing how Brexit and Trump have been playing out. Trump has been lashing out here and there and Brexit's May has been in a type of nevernever land, desperately clinging onto Trump and Erdogan. Will the French be looking on with horror? How Le Pen does, may also depend on how strong counter-Brexit and counter-Trump feelings have become.

Unlike 37% of the UK electorate who wanted to give up and quit the Europe Union, instead of trying to help improve and overcome challenges, I think the rest of Europe has the will to stick together and work through the problems facing the EU.

Reception and orientation for immigrants and refugees could improve. A prosperous and aging European population has demand for immigrants though. It will be a bumpy time ahead in the markets though. imo.

[arc]

wt?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/business/ivanka-trump-nordstrom-tj-maxx.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/business/ivanka-trump-nordstrom-tj-maxx.html?_r=0)

[BlackPeter]

wt?

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/business/ivanka-trump-nordstrom-tj-maxx.html?_r=0 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/business/ivanka-trump-nordstrom-tj-maxx.html?_r=0)

He couldn't have found a better way to demonstrate how corrupt he is. However - belongs probably on the Trump thread.

[Raz]

He couldn't have found a better way to demonstrate how corrupt he is. However - belongs probably on the Trump thread.

Another storm in a tea cup..saying a good word about his daughter is just natural love and affection..people going to hate:-)

[BlackPeter]

Another storm in a tea cup..saying a good word about his daughter is just natural love and affection..people going to hate:-)

Are you for real? Did you even read Trump's message? He is clearly trying to intimidate a business for taking his daughters clothes off her special line.

[Baa_Baa]

Are you for real? Did you even read Trump's message? He is clearly trying to intimidate a business for taking his daughters clothes off her special line.

I think you miss Raz point but make another accurate point. Neither are mutually exclusive.

[Lewylewylewy]

Are you for real? Did you even read Trump's message? He is clearly trying to intimidate a business for taking his daughters clothes off her special line.

If it were my decision, I'd take her clothes off.

[bull....]

the trump rally got a big boost last week when trump said big tax announcement coming soon. up up and away:)

[blackcap]

the trump rally got a big boost last week when trump said big tax announcement coming soon. up up and away:)

Dow 25000 here we come, probably before Christmas if the tax cuts come into effect in 2017 :P:)

[skid]

Another storm in a tea cup..saying a good word about his daughter is just natural love and affection..people going to hate:-)

Natural love and affection for ones daughter(without trashing others) is fine,but when it is done in the political arena with the obvious influence of the position,it is totally inappropriate. Thats the mistake many supporters make--they say Trump is just being ''real'' while failing to take into account the political collateral damage or benefit. Wait until something Trump says carelessly affects their bottom line and see how that sits. People with shares in the company who dropped Ivankas line because it wasnt selling well, may have a different view of his tactics.

[dobby41]

Wait until something Trump says carelessly affects their bottom line and see how that sits.

Like his comments on a particular auto maker, or plane makers.

Loose lips!

[Lewylewylewy]

I actually started a Trump fund to buy shares when he makes a stock stomping announcement. Go Trump! Lol

[bull....]

on que for target dow short term

[skid]

I suppose Exon,and Goldman Sachs would be a safe bet - let the cronies pull the strings for you (couldnt bring myself to do it though)

[bull....]

go the DOW:t_up: best index last 10 days , nz not to good :(



Security Name
Close
10 Day


Dow Industrials
20504
3.2219


BRAZIL
66757.62
3.2191


FRANCE
4895.82
3.0938


Nasdaq
5782.57
2.9882


Emerging Markets
38.38
2.7852


Dow Transports
9444
2.7527


S&P 500
2337.58
2.5763


Russel
1396.63
2.5561


INDIA
28339
2.4733


AUSTRALIA
5755.2
2.3893


LONDON
7268.56
2.3863


CHINA
3217
2.1594


GERMANY
11771.81
2.0502


US DOLLAR
101.25
1.7281


HANG SENG
23703.01
1.465


GOLD
1231
1.4003


JAPAN
19238.98
1.038


NEW ZEALAND
7150.89
0.922


OIL
53.16
0.6437


HYG
87.72
0.4351


CRB
192.27
0.125


Dow Utilities
667
-0.1497


TLT
119.51
-0.4913


NZ DOLLAR
0.7161
-2.452

[arc]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-mental-health-new-york-times-incapable-being-president-warning-open-letter-a7578831.html

[bull....]

trump said the markets understand him that's why they are going up.

dow new record:t_up:

[arc]

Both DOW and S&P at new highs... but I fail to see the actual tangible backing for it. My concern is that its all based on the amount of rhetoric that's being generated at higher levels.

Thoughts ?

[bull....]

fake news you think?&nbsp;<br>the markets will need to see results as all this news gets built in to prices for sure, anyway I think the tax plan has the potential to fundamentally change business in the us hugely to the upside. so maybe when released might mean even more neew highs?

[BlackPeter]

Both DOW and S&P at new highs... but I fail to see the actual tangible backing for it. My concern is that its all based on the amount of rhetoric that's being generated at the high levels.

Thoughts ?

Its clearly based on hope and expectations.
* markets expects tax relieve (and might well get them) .... this is good for NPAT and SP (imagine all these additional share buybacks companies will be able to finance).
* markets expect a big infrastructure program - pumping up public debts and lining the pockets of the rich. Still, some money might end up on company balance sheets - i.e. short term (until the debts really bite) great for the markets.

I think short term there is some base for the markets hope.

Obviously - long term the situation is not sustainable. Less tax income together with higher expenses in combination with already now crippling debts is a toxic mixture. The big crash will come, but it might be still years away.

Enjoy the dance as long as the music plays, but be very vigilant and careful ... You don't want to be caught out without chair when the music stops.

[skid]

fake news you think?*<br>the markets will need to see results as all this news gets built in to prices for sure, anyway I think the tax plan has the potential to fundamentally change business in the us hugely to the upside. so maybe when released might mean even more neew highs?

The Tax plan is definitely calling the shots at this stage--It will no doubt be good for the big companies and regulations will be rolled back for resource companies. Draining the swamp, it aint,but its still is good for investors that want to invest in it(as long as you dont think to much about the social aspect)---Its free market gone berserk

[Aaron]

Thoughts ?
Economists have been saying all along that easy monetary policy had to have some support with fiscal spending from governments. Donald Trump is proposing to do that. I am unsure how he will pay for it as he is cutting taxes and may be hitting some sort of debt ceiling at some stage. Has the Federal Reserve said anything lately. Confirmation from Janet Yellen that the federal reserve will provide all the money required and can turn interest rates negative if need be, means there is really no limit to how high asset prices might climb.

[blackcap]

Interesting isn't it that the DOW was at 18,259 on the eve of the US election. To fall about 800 points in the futures (as it looked like Trump would become president) to where it is today at 20,600.
That is one heck of a 3 month rally!

[bull....]

Interesting isn't it that the DOW was at 18,259 on the eve of the US election. To fall about 800 points in the futures (as it looked like Trump would become president) to where it is today at 20,600.
That is one heck of a 3 month rally!

fake news about trump caused the 800pt fall lol

[bull....]

the way nzx going today its definitely a black Thursday worst market performance.:t_down:

[arc]

Interesting isn't it that the DOW was at 18,259 on the eve of the US election. To fall about 800 points in the futures (as it looked like Trump would become president) to where it is today at 20,600.
That is one heck of a 3 month rally!


3 month rally... or... soap bubble approaching maximum expansion limits.

At some stage its going to turn into Lemming time, the question is when?

[Lewylewylewy]

Does any one else find it humorous that the whole worlds investment opportunities and success hinge on one (potentially mentally ill) person?

We really do live in the Orwellian society that we often joke about.

Personally, I enjoy the vollatility, it's fun and fully of opportunity. I could do with a nice crash.

[percy]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.?

[couta1]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.? I only hold 4 stocks currently and they all have PE's of 10 or below except A2 which is fully deserving of its PE of 28 ish.

[Jinx]

I am extremely nervous about the NZ market.Although I think the outlook for NZ is excellent,I am concerned about the valuations of a number of stocks.I have held EBO for a number of years,the PE goes from about 13 to 16.Today it is 21.94.I hold,having sold 60% of my holding.
Other PEs which I can not understand are; AIA 30.54,FRE 22.07,RBD 22.59 [held],MFT 22.25,and POT 38.73.
All very fine companies,but a great number of years' earnings have been built into their share prices.
Is it different this time.?

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

[bull....]

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

monetary policy around the world has changed, at the moment rates are turning up, stimulus is being peeled back just this week yellen said many rate hikes this year if things keep rolling nicely along.
inflation has ticked up.
NZX is out of favour because our market is a yield market not many growth companies so with the above occurring is it any surprise money is leaving the nzx and going to countries where you can invest in stocks for growth.
and when you got a govt in the us that is willing to do fiscal policy for growth makes sense why dow etc are going up on the other hand nz govt is doing very little fiscal growth that's why housing , infrastructure even company tax will be uncompetitve soon , bad capital markets etc etc is it any wonder the nzx only went up during a low monetary environment.
look at all the well known fund managers jumping out at the top? maybe they don't want to diminish there bull market record.

[skid]

An interesting thought I've previously had about the NZX (and international relations)
If the Dow continues to rise so steadily because of trump based policy (tax cuts, lack of monetary policy, interest rates at near 0) then can we really say the NZX won't benefit? Not only this but with China being shunned from the US Chinese investors will be looking for some place to park their money that isn't trying to start a trade war, New Zealand ticks a lot of boxes. As long as trump continues on his almost random and very compulsive policy choices then the market has neither positive or negative sentiment, only confusion.

To me it seems like trump wants monetary policy that will keep him and his many other rich mates making serious money investing. Although high P/E's are a problem, it's seen globally with many companies having P/E's in the hundreds, if a company can have a global impact and provide infrastructure in a huge number of ways then its hard to argue against high P/E's if people are willing to keep them up.

Discl: If the Euro zone gets more disbanded and trump gets impeached who knows what could happen. Otherwise see NZ as a safe haven in every respect.

The bigger they are (DOW) the harder they fall and a president who has no experience yet of handling a crises---we'll see how that goes when it comes---right now he is big business's darling

[arc]

What he understands is making money (but only within a narrow field). Im hearing more and more concern that he doesn't understand politics and international relations, or even public relations. the disconnect between running a money making business and running a nation to successfully navigate/operate within the international arena framework...will bite

Sooner or later there is going to be an implosion.

[Lewylewylewy]

What he understands is making money (but only within a narrow field). Im hearing more and more concern that he doesn't understand politics and international relations, or even public relations. the disconnect between running a money making business and running a nation to successfully navigate/operate within the international arena framework...will bite

Sooner or later there is going to be an implosion.

Agreed, especially about the narrow field. From that position there would be so many ways to make money. Better money than his silly negotiation and advertising standpoint, and less obvious to the public too.

I think there is also the possibility that solve layers of government and policy might stop him doing anything too stupid, but only to the point where it wouldn't deminish the position of President in the public eye.

[Lewylewylewy]

The outcome of tax reform is the indicator I have my eye on.

[arc]

In relation to comments made by others here about key people leaving top positions, we all need to ask is there more to the story?. Are they just playing safe or expecting something to develop in the relatively near future, or is it a sideways step to a even better position?

Some Hedge fund managers see times of uncertainty ahead.

https://goldstocksforex.com/2017/02/12/a-quiet-giant-of-investing-weighs-in-on-donald-trump/

[bull....]

new records on wall st again :t_up: also most other markets are hitting new highs so really is a global rally lead by financials and materials and energy

[winner69]

The outcome of tax reform is the indicator I have my eye on.


What'll happen if Fed 'intervenes' in Trump grand tax plans and Trump get's pissed off and 'disrupts' the Fed

[fish]

What'll happen if Fed 'intervenes' in Trump grand tax plans and Trump get's pissed off and 'disrupts' the Fed

Yet another enemy I suppose
When enough enemies get together he just might have a battle he cant win
He has created so much mayhem anything could happen.
I feel the initial euphoria of tax cuts will fade and he may lose support-who really can predict the future?
Markets dont like uncertainty
Trading countries-eg china,Australia,mexico,canada are probably getting nasty feelings about him.
Conversely the uk is looking for new friends but can you trust him?
I guess it has to be good for investment in nz-a lot of americans are looking to invest here

[winner69]

Reagan cut taxes so Fed 'responded' by increasing rates - recession followed and Reagan backed down

Clinton went to polls on tax cuts - Fed sent him a warning and Clinton backed down on promises - great time for markets

Trump back down on his tax cuts? Unlikely so Fed likely to 'respond' with rate hikes. Trump get pissed off and 'interferes' in the election of Fed members. If this happens all hell could break loose on the markets.

Remember the last 30 year boom in asset prices (in the USA) has been based on the premise the Fed always wins.

Trump the great disruptor

[dodgy]

Reagan cut taxes so Fed 'responded' by increasing rates - recession followed and Reagan backed down

Clinton went to polls on tax cuts - Fed sent him a warning and Clinton backed down on promises - great time for markets

Trump back down on his tax cuts? Unlikely so Fed likely to 'respond' with rate hikes. Trump get pissed off and 'interferes' in the election of Fed members. If this happens all hell could break loose on the markets.

Remember the last 30 year boom in asset prices (in the USA) has been based on the premise the Fed always wins.

Trump the great disruptor


Hi w69
Fed has already said that due to anticipated inflation being below their 2% limit a min. number of increases will be contemplated this year - calendar 2017.

[winner69]

Hi w69
Fed has already said that due to anticipated inflation being below their 2% limit a min. number of increases will be contemplated this year - calendar 2017.

Of course Janet say's that. She likely waiting for Trump's first move before 'responding'

The battle between Janet and Trump will be intriguing

Everything about Trump is inflationary

[bull....]

sage advice from the oracle

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11808033

[arc]

Some interesting comments emerging from executives. Reminds me of the time that a Banker told me (1999-2000 ?) that a person is more likely to change their marriage partner than to change their bank... the younger generation have now destroyed that concept, they are chasing the best deal where ever it is, banks are running scared.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/jeff-immelt-ge-ceo-on-global-trade-2017-2?r=US&IR=T
(http://www.businessinsider.com.au/jeff-immelt-ge-ceo-on-global-trade-2017-2?r=US&IR=T)
And another view

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/27/warren-buffett-has-boosted-his-apple-inc-position.aspx

[bull....]

everything holding up ahead of trumps big speech this arvo.

nice to see brokerage rates falling up to 50% and etfs fees barely register lets hope the fee competition spreads to aus and nz, nz fees for stock trades and fund fees look like gouging compared to whats happening overseas.

Guess not many people take fees into account when investing or else they would have just invested in a low cost etf as buffett does.

100k invested at 1.5% fee for 10yrs roughly 7% return equals 185k at end
100k invested at .25% fee for 10yrs roughly 7% return equals 210k at end all of the top me head lol

fees destroy wealth in the long run.

[Bobdn]

One day we will all wish we had never heard of the share market. That day is not today.