Black Monday

[ratkin]

Farage sticking the fingers up at the Eu summit this morning. Would be amusing if it wasnt so tragic
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/28/brexit-live-cameron-eu-leaders-brussels-corbyn-confidencehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/28/brexit-live-cameron-eu-leaders-brussels-corbyn-confidence

[BlackPeter]

hint
- there is as well a thread about the BREXIT ... might be better to post this stuff over there ...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10622-Brexit

another hint: not sure, whether there is a thread about snapper & Co, but maybe the fish lovers should create one ...

third hint: this thread is called "Black Monday" and part of the NZX discussions

admission: I sinned previously as well ...

[kura]

Candidate for Diplomat of the Year
http://www.firstpost.com/world/none-of-you-have-ever-done-a-proper-job-in-your-lives-nigel-farage-to-european-parliament-2861482.html

[King1212]

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/28/brexit-vote-fallout-was-not-lehman-moment-says-ecb-vice-president.html

[arc]

Fishing...
http://www.infinitas.co/img.lib/img-snapper.jpg

[Beagle]

Fishing...
http://www.infinitas.co/img.lib/img-snapper.jpg

If you're good at it you can get 1 kilo of fillets for every 3 kg's of whole snapper so that's effectively $41.97 per kg of fillets after a lot of detailed filleting work.

Own a nice launch at Auckland's Westhaven marina and catch your own ? Rumour down there is the average cost per kilo of snapper caught is $820 :)

Just buy the fillets of a more reasonably priced fish and save yourself a ton of money !

What's all this got to do with the price of fish anyway :) Oh, I see the markets are up overnight, goody.

[arc]

If you're good at it you can get 1 kilo of fillets for every 3 kg's of whole snapper so that's effectively $41.97 per kg of fillets after a lot of detailed filleting work.

Own a nice launch at Auckland's Westhaven marina and catch your own ? Rumour down there is the average cost per kilo of snapper caught is $820 :)

Just buy the fillets of a more reasonably priced fish and save yourself a ton of money !

What's all this got to do with the price of fish anyway :) Oh, I see the markets are up overnight, goody.


UK will be fishing for new deals... "bad pun"
The markets are showing remarkably short attention spans, or is this just a lull before the storm?

Perhaps the new negotiations will mean the price of prime NZ lamb will be even cheaper in their supermarkets, it was cheaper there than here a while ago...


Ouch...totally expected but... the claws are coming out.

from the page linked in thep posts above.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/28/brexit-live-cameron-eu-leaders-brussels-corbyn-confidence
Angela Merkel (https://www.theguardian.com/world/angela-merkel) and other European leaders, meeting for the first EU summit since last Friday’s result, ruled out any special favours for Britain yesterday, insisting there would be no “cherry-picking exercise” in the exit negotiations.


In a speech to the Bundestag ahead of the summit on Tuesday, the German chancellor said: “There must be, and there will be, a palpable difference between those countries who want to be members of the European family and those who don’t.”


These words have been echoed by other EU leaders including Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi (https://www.theguardian.com/world/matteo-renzi). Xavier Bettel, prime minister of Luxembourg, added that the UK could not have a Facebook-style “it’s complicated” status with the rest of the EU: Britain could have “marriage or divorce, but not something in between”.

[ziggy415]

"What's all this got to do with the price of fish anyway :) Oh, I see the markets are up overnight, goody."

The cats limping but its still alive....just

I see mr farage mentioned nz and australia are fighting to be the first to get a trade deal with Britain
see brexit is good

[minimoke]

Well, my nz portfolio looks better than it did on thursday. So what's the fuss?

My us stock hasnt recoverd and im being doubly hit with the nzd/ usd. But despite that i am overall better off than a week ago.

Maybe i can afford a nice fillet afterall

[Raz]

Well, my nz portfolio looks better than it did on thursday. So what's the fuss?

My us stock hasnt recoverd and im being doubly hit with the nzd/ usd. But despite that i am overall better off than a week ago.

Maybe i can afford a nice fillet afterall

This is going to be a long drawn out story which favours traders rather than investors, go get that fish before your portfolio changes direction again:-)

[whatsup]

If you're good at it you can get 1 kilo of fillets for every 3 kg's of whole snapper so that's effectively $41.97 per kg of fillets after a lot of detailed filleting work.

Own a nice launch at Auckland's Westhaven marina and catch your own ? Rumour down there is the average cost per kilo of snapper caught is $820 :)

Just buy the fillets of a more reasonably priced fish and save yourself a ton of money !

What's all this got to do with the price of fish anyway :) Oh, I see the markets are up overnight, goody.

or you can but fresh N Z snapper in San Fransisco for US$179/lb ! (NZ $ 5.75 approx. )

[minimoke]

This is going to be a long drawn out story which favours traders rather than investors, go get that fish before your portfolio changes direction again:-)correct. Im not worried about short term fluctuations - as long as the trend shows growth and dividends keep flowing

[arc]

correct. Im not worried about short term fluctuations - as long as the trend shows growth and dividends keep flowing

And that is the heart of the potential problem right there..."growth"
If brexit turns nasty, and its beginning to look that way, it might be a long (or short?) process followed by the corresponding decline to the bottom.

Or it might be a storm in a teacup?

Personally I think everyone is holding their collective breath at the moment, It looks like they (Brokers, Bankers, Industrialists, everyday people... sheeple) think enough damage has already been done and the thought of this potentially being just the tip of the iceberg is... frightening.

So the question is... do I stay or do I go... (stock & share wise...)

Your thoughts folks?

[macduffy]

So the question is... do I stay or do I go... (stock & share wise...)


I'm staying, but then I've been there for over 50 years - to a greater or lesser extent. But might take the time to weed out and sell a few of my poorer performers.

[fish]

So the question is... do I stay or do I go... (stock & share wise...)

Your thoughts folks?[/QUOTE]

Time to reassess maybe
Don't rush
Keep diversified
Holding the right shares and trading at the right time-so stay unless you need to sell for other reasons and have a good purpose for the money realised

[Biscuit]

So the question is... do I stay or do I go... (stock & share wise...)

I'm for "stay", picked up a few extra shares in last few days. Nothing bad has actually happened yet - just uncertainty. I don't think the Brits will press the button until they have a clear road-map of where they are going, backed by a majority of MPs. They may never push the button. Just my view though and I am relatively cashed up already and looking at a pile of money earning nothing in the bank.

[kiora]

So the question is... do I stay or do I go... (stock & share wise...)

Your thoughts folks?

Time to reassess maybe
Don't rush
Keep diversified
Holding the right shares and trading at the right time-so stay unless you need to sell for other reasons and have a good purpose for the money realised[/QUOTE]

My strategy as well.If in doubt,revise portfolio but I'm not looking to trade.I'm happy with what I hold.

[JBmurc]

You sell then where do you go Cash - Property ? .....

[Biscuit]

You sell then where do you go Cash - Property ? .....

Gold, if you are really worried.

[minimoke]

This is going to be a long drawn out story which favours traders rather than investors, go get that fish before your portfolio changes direction again:-)
Lovely jubbly as the Brits say. Quite the bounce today. Might make that two fillets! In for a penny, in for a pound wot.

[Rep]

Own a nice launch at Auckland's Westhaven marina and catch your own ? Rumour down there is the average cost per kilo of snapper caught is $820 :).

My wife once asked me if fishing was more cost effective than just buying the fish at a shop. I was honest and said it was terribly expensive in comparison, she smiled and said it was probably cheaper than other hobbies* and at least we got some fish to bring home.

(* eg anything involving racing internal combustion engines, sailing, skiing, scuba or anything else I'm interested in)

[stoploss]

My wife once asked me if fishing was more cost effective than just buying the fish at a shop. I was honest and said it was terribly expensive in comparison, she smiled and said it was probably cheaper than other hobbies* and at least we got some fish to bring home.

(* eg anything involving racing internal combustion engines, sailing, skiing, scuba or anything else I'm interested in)

Rep is this you and your mates ?

Four married guys go fishing for the weekend. After an hour, the following conversation took place:

First guy: "You have no idea what I had to do, to be able to come out fishing this weekend. I had to promise my wife that I will paint every room in the house next weekend."

Second guy: "That's nothing; I had to promise my wife that I will build her a new deck for the pool."

Third guy: "Man, you both have it easy! I had to promise my wife that I will remodel the kitchen for her."

They continue to fish, when they realised that the fourth guy hasn't said a word.

So they asked him. "You haven't said anything about what you had to do, to be able to come fishing this weekend. What's the deal?"

Fourth guy: "Wow, you guys sure make it hard for yourselves! All I did, was set my alarm for 5:30 am. When it went off, I shut the alarm off, gave the wife a little slap on the ass, and said, "Fishing or sex," and she said, "Don't forget to wear sunblock."

[arc]

Gold, if you are really worried.
Been there, done that, exited to go into graphite and lithium, doing better with the smaller companies, thank goodness for the Aussie miners.
I agree on the re-balance plan. time to prune the UK stocks before EU sharpens the knives. I see the next 2 years for UK as a slippery slope.

[h2so4]

Well today I gave a lot back to the market.
About half of what I gave back at 9/11.
Then it took about a month for my portfolio to recover,and then steadily increase.
I wonder whether it will take less than a month this time?

6days and 10 pages of postings later.
Are we there yet?

[h2so4]

hint
- there is as well a thread about the BREXIT ... might be better to post this stuff over there ...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10622-Brexit

another hint: not sure, whether there is a thread about snapper & Co, but maybe the fish lovers should create one ...

third hint: this thread is called "Black Monday" and part of the NZX discussions

admission: I sinned previously as well ...

Well it was a good distraction.

Was it Couta a la Barra who said he was going fishing while all this was going on?

[h2so4]

Fishing...
http://www.infinitas.co/img.lib/img-snapper.jpg

Hey that snapper will cost you $45 fillited.

How good at filleting are you?

[arc]

That's the supermarket price, I usually catch my own snapper from a small dinghy about 300 meters offshore. gotta love the Coromandel peninsula


So is that it for the brexit... or is this a dead cat bounce,
every stock on my list appears to be up..

The sad-news stories keep on rolling.
Vodafone head office is considering leaving Britain to relocate within the EU.

[kura]

Hey that snapper will cost you $45 fillited.

How good at filleting are you?

Im proud owner of Weber BBQ & so I smoke my snapper ( also hopeless at filleting )

Re market, I figure bounce wont last much longer so am selling out of shares I purchased Monday.

[skid]

6days and 10 pages of postings later.
Are we there yet?

Depends on if this is the real drop and if so ,will there be blips along the way---Is this a Kitty Cat?

Some say the market likes to suck in as many as possible before taking--It could be business as usual,but Im always amused at the idea that ''not making quite enough money'' is reason to risk it all.

Guess one just has to look and decide if everything is stacking up now--Is all well?--do we need corporate profits,or can they fiddle enough for another rally.

[Biscuit]

Depends on if this is the drop and if so ,wilkl there be blips along the way---Is this a Kitty Cat?

Doesn't "feel" like a DCB to me. Feels more like the drop has happened as a "Oh-my-God-what-have-they-done" moment with now a slow return to business as usual. But what would I know.

[skid]

what do any of us know?Im just going by the fact that often the real falls are accompanied by fake rises along the way--so with that in mind ,its a bit early to make ''alls well'' calls.--There are a multitude of things to work out over there--are we really going to assume the separating from the EU and possibly a separation of the UK and other EU counties leaving is just a short lived panic situation and all will be well---that just doesnt feel right to me---If the short term panic doesnt feel right --could it just be because we are so used to status quo of things always bouncing back--I think all suspect that some day they just wont----maybe not now ,but some day -month-year-there will be another 50% drop to shake things out---I just hope it doesnt take the banks with it.

I guess I have the luxury of not having to squeeze every cent out of the capital I have so can afford to think more of protecting and sacrificing future profits--I realize that is not an option for all,and after all is the goal of share trading.

[Baa_Baa]

It all about the Brexit non-event, risk-on! Ye Har. Don't mention http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/imf-deutsche-bank-poses-greatest-risk-global-financial-system some sobering quotes from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

[Biscuit]

Im just going by the fact that often the real falls are accompanied by fake rises along the way--so with that in mind ,its a bit early to make ''alls well'' calls.

Yes, I don't disagree, I would not be surprised to see another fall in the next few weeks. But if I had to pick whether to "stay or to go", I'm picking "stay". I'm not really a trader - I moved a while ago to cash up some of my shares and nothing about Brexit makes me inclined to sell more, in fact I bought a few on Friday at closing. One way or another, I'd guess that Britain and Europe will compromise their way to a new position that doesn't really address any of the underlying problems with Europe but allows everyone to carry on more or less as before - that is the one thing they are really good at.

[winner69]

....if everyone is waiting to take advantage of the next big market crash the crash won't come.

[percy]

6days and 10 pages of postings later.
Are we there yet?

Yes,and I did not buy or sell anything.!!

[Raz]

People do not get EU and UK unless you work/live there or have access across society to what is happening there. UK has a lot of challengers but don't think the remaining EU hasn't got equally large economic challenges ahead. The market will continue to react and this is really the easy bit to judge the market as little has change yet on the economic front and key stats. The initial over reaction was a rare opportunity to make money, it will only get harder from here on in.

[bull....]

what a stunning week down nearly 1000pts on the dow 2 days and now up nearly 1000pts next 3 days wow great stuff for trading not the heart rate though a lol, anyway says it all it was a non event for everyone but the uk anyway in the short term.
going by all the fish talk here guess most people were reeling them in, but I think not lol weeks like this only the minority do well.

[Balance]

Been hell of a week.

NBR commentator summed it best on Brexit/Independence Day : 'Financial markets reacted in an overwrought manner, much like when Britain reacted on death of Princess Diana".

Ok if you did not buy but sad if anyone sold out in panic, fanned by the CNN, CNBC and the likes.

[arc]

The is still a lot of "sentiment" going around

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/30/brexit-is-a-negative-shock-soros.html
"First, it unleashed a crisis in the financial markets, comparable in severity only to 2007/8," he said, adding that while this has been unfolding in slow motion, Brexit will accelerate it and reinforce deflationary trends that were already prevalent.

[Bobdn]

Gee, what an amazing three day rally, and its still going. Would have been painful to have been cashed up and watching that from the sidelines.

[Valuegrowth]

“One way or another, I'd guess that Britain and Europe will compromise their way to a new position that doesn't really address any of the underlying problems with Europe but allows everyone to carry on more or less as before - that is the one thing they are really good at.”

I completely agree with this. Moreover, unlike some other countries, tribes and cultures they are not going to declare war each other as they have the experience and memory of the First World War and Second World War. For example even Russia maintained some restraint when Turkey shot down their Russian Plane.

World has two wars now namely economic (financial) war and political war. Still nobody has fixed them once and for all. Therefore, time to time we have to expect some geopolitical crisis and economic crisis in the future too. These types of crises make some investment opportunities as well.


Yes, I don't disagree, I would not be surprised to see another fall in the next few weeks. But if I had to pick whether to "stay or to go", I'm picking "stay". I'm not really a trader - I moved a while ago to cash up some of my shares and nothing about Brexit makes me inclined to sell more, in fact I bought a few on Friday at closing. One way or another, I'd guess that Britain and Europe will compromise their way to a new position that doesn't really address any of the underlying problems with Europe but allows everyone to carry on more or less as before - that is the one thing they are really good at.

[Hoop]

It's all good no worries....
Once we had Monetary Easing (great news of the Equity markets) which was able to kick start the economy..:t_up:

When that method lost it's potency the Central Banks got our their untried monster 2 edge sword called QE (fantastic news for the Equity markets) and swung that around :t_up: :t_up:..(thanks Ben I owe you a beer.. the market was very nice to me $$$)

..now that method is losing it's potency....

..but no worries...

"helicopter money" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money) is next on the list and its already on its way + another US rate cut being priced in ...Ultra fantastic for equity markets....:t_up::t_up::t_up:

Hmmm.......hang on a minute... did I see Major Douglas and the Social Credit Movement get mentioned..

[Bobdn]

Sure, but biggest three day rally since 2011. For five years. When markets go on a tear, no amount of head and shoulders tea candling and chocolate caking is going to let anyone know in advance.

[kura]

It's all good no worries....

Hmmm.......hang on a minute... did I see Major Douglas and the Social Credit Movement get mentioned..

Recall the name Social Credit from when I was a kid, but who was Major Douglas ?? Was he Rogers dad ?

[Hoop]

Recall the name Social Credit from when I was a kid, but who was Major Douglas ?? Was he Rogers dad ?
...nice piece of humorous logic :D but No :p... try Google.

An interesting observation with History... it seems when a subsystem gets the wobbles, a crowd forms to abandon it for an unorthodox untried subsystem...which is very strange thinking as it would be common sense to tweak to improve the old subsystem rather than causing complete disharmony in introducing an alternate subsystem.

Major Douglas ideal (an unorthodox system) was to give economic democracy back to the people...effectively giving people the power especially purchasing power without causing inflation....Economists poo pooed the philosophy...

Looking at the outcome of the Brexit referendum shows you just how economically scary it can be to give any sort of power back to the people....making the masses capable of destabilizing their own Country's System..that could take months for the negative effects to start showing and years before those negative effects slowly dissipate....If this is a UK war with the European Union you have to question who is UK's enemy

[Lewylewylewy]

...nice piece of humorous logic :D but No :p... try Google.

An interesting observation with History... it seems when a subsystem gets the wobbles, a crowd forms to abandon it for an unorthodox untried subsystem...which is very strange thinking as it would be common sense to tweak to improve the old subsystem rather than causing complete disharmony in introducing an alternate subsystem.

Major Douglas ideal (an unorthodox system) was to give economic democracy back to the people...effectively giving people the power especially purchasing power....Economists poo pooed the philosophy...

Looking at the outcome of the Brexit referendum shows you just how economically scary it can be to give any sort of power back to the people....making the masses capable of destabilizing their own Country's System..that could take months for the negative effects to start showing and years before those negative effects slowly dissipate....If this is a UK war with Europe you have to wonder who is the UK's enemy

Equally bad to have politicians in charge of any sort of power. Those guys DO NOT know what they're doing. They sure are good at politics though, sometimes.

[Biscuit]

...
Looking at the outcome of the Brexit referendum shows you just how economically scary it can be to give any sort of power back to the people....making the masses capable of destabilizing their own Country's System..that could take months for the negative effects to start showing and years before those negative effects slowly dissipate.... Not sure I agree with this - and I'm a NZ and EU citizen (not British) who is very much a "Europhile" who enjoys travelling unimpeded and is dismayed at the British withdrawal from the EU. Sometimes the politicians and the other clever people are incapable of doing or even seeing what needs to be done and it needs a greater breadth of people to point out the obvious. Basic things like patriotism, social identity etc, while often unsavoury are also fundamental to society.

[fungus pudding]

Looking at the outcome of the Brexit referendum shows you just how economically scary it can be to give any sort of power back to the people....making the masses capable of destabilizing their own Country's System..that could take months for the negative effects to start showing and years before those negative effects slowly dissipate..

Precisely. The though of citizens referendums on matters like this is frightening.

[janner]

Precisely. The though of citizens referendums on matters like this is frightening.

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

[NeverQuestion]

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

I think the issue here is that you have a small group with a lot of wealth and alot of power over political issues as a result.. look at the American presidential race.. statistically speaking the candidate with the most money usually wins..where does this money come from do you think?

And you would expect a return on your investment right?

But this leaves the majority left out and left behind on the issues that matter to them.. Auckland housing is a good example of this

So what happens when the majority are forgotten about for long enough? you get these kinda results when suddenly the people get a say.. if you look at the political climate in Britain before this vote I think your see a lot of the social issues were being blamed on the control from the EU.. politicians looking for something to blame other than working to fix the issues perhaps? Or not beneficial to the select few maybe

[fish]

what do any of us know?Im just going by the fact that often the real falls are accompanied by fake rises along the way--so with that in mind ,its a bit early to make ''alls well'' calls.--There are a multitude of things to work out over there--are we really going to assume the separating from the EU and possibly a separation of the UK and other EU counties leaving is just a short lived panic situation and all will be well---that just doesnt feel right to me---If the short term panic doesnt feel right --could it just be because we are so used to status quo of things always bouncing back--I think all suspect that some day they just wont----maybe not now ,but some day -month-year-there will be another 50% drop to shake things out---I just hope it doesnt take the banks with it.

I guess I have the luxury of not having to squeeze every cent out of the capital I have so can afford to think more of protecting and sacrificing future profits--I realize that is not an option for all,and after all is the goal of share trading.

So what are the predictions for monday onwards?

My guess is that Europe will be a political and financial mess for sometime-many years.It wont impact on the productivity and earnings of NZ as much as many expect.
Markets will remain volatile-there will be many trading and investing opportunity.
The Euro and pound may fall further and best not to invest there

[fungus pudding]

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

At least with their parties and advisors they could make an informed decision on something like the EU, and can be voted out of power. Do you really think the average man in the street had his head around the pros and cons of the EU? I doubt it, yet they were able to vote on this very important matter.

[Hoop]

So we leave all decisions to the Trumps. Clinton's. Tony Blair's. Helen Clarke's. George Soros.. Obama's. Yeltsin's..

Or perhaps just the Rothchild's ???

Yes... it the democratic right that people have usually once every 3 or 4 years.... be able to entrusted certain important people into powerful positions to do the job through majority/coalition vote...Those minorities who didn't vote for them have to suck it up and wait another 3 /4 years..
Often these voted in people/party then surround themselves with advisors and people from high/influential private/public positions (voters have no say with this) to aid with their important decision making...This is the democratic way...

This Black Swan event (Brexit) occurred when the people revolted during reasonably OK economic times..that was unexpected behaviour...

...........which makes me wonder when the Equity Markets regained all its shock losses if Mr Global Market believes the UK in the long run will not leave the EU or only partially leaves thereby adding synergy to both parties..


At least with their parties and advisors they could make an informed decision on something like the EU, and can be voted out of power. Do you really think the average man in the street had his head around the pros and cons of the EU? I doubt it, yet they were able to vote on this very important matter.Agree.........which brings me back to how many pro-leave individuals did their homework/analysis (including read the Treasury papers below)
2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf)

[Hoop]

A Black Monday?

No..................Europe/Asia markets closed bullish on Friday..........also US market will be closed Monday...

The VIX Friday is showing lower volatility for the S&P500 later in the month ahead...

No worries..eh

[Rep]

But this leaves the majority left out and left behind on the issues that matter to them.. Auckland housing is a good example of this


Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs).

[minimoke]

I always do a share portfolio reconciliation on the first of every month. So 1st july I am a little behind 1 June. But it is still my second highest month this year.

If I look at my total position I'm $100 down this month so really in no position to see what the fuss is a bout.

[Bjauck]

Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs). In the South and West of Auckland home ownership rates have fallen to 38% probably as the result of Investors prepared to bid up the prices, accepting a low yield in the expectation of tax-free capital gains. The same issues that may have resulted in the protest Brexit vote are magnified in NZ - namely immigration pressures and the poorer in Society feeling as though they have been left behind.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/304700/akl-home-ownership-rates-'collapsing'
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/80948845/Ghetto-warning-as-property-investors-take-lions-share-of-cheap-houses

Not all home owners are happy in Auckland. Those who own their first home are finding that the difference required has increased at the same rate as the house prices, when they want to move "up the ladder" to buy a larger house for an expanding family and/or in a more sought after suburb.

[Raz]

Is it a good example at all? The folk who currently own a home in Auckland that I speak to are mostly happy that the value of their homes has increased significantly. Some do have reservations about what their children may face in terms of buying a home... But sensationalist head lines about 80 sq metre cottages going for over $1m in Mangere Bridge aside (it's a waterfront 1100 sq metre property) - most feel good about the growth in their wealth and at present this actually represents a majority as while home ownership rates have fallen they still represent more than 60% of households (noting this isn't consistent across suburbs).


It is illusional wealth unless they leave Auckland, can sell down or have investment properties. This illusion retains the status quo.

however the wider NZ taxpayers, which Auckland is far from the majority, now foots the bill in several ways: lower wages, financial credit risk & tax dollars needed on the growing infrastructure needs from Auckland population growth etc.

ps Unless what you really mean and the way the world now works is you inflate assets then borrow against those assets for spending money and they call that "Being wealthy" :-)

[Raz]

So what are the predictions for monday onwards?

My guess is that Europe will be a political and financial mess for sometime-many years.It wont impact on the productivity and earnings of NZ as much as many expect.
Markets will remain volatile-there will be many trading and investing opportunity.
The Euro and pound may fall further and best not to invest there

Well i'm actually investing in UK exporters with good market shares outside EU. They have now a serious competitive advantage.

[macduffy]

Well i'm actually investing in UK exporters with good market shares outside EU. They have now a serious competitive advantage.

Unless, of course, they import a lot of their raw materials/inputs.

[janner]

At least with their parties and advisors they could make an informed decision on something like the EU, and can be voted out of power. Do you really think the average man in the street had his head around the pros and cons of the EU? I doubt it, yet they were able to vote on this very important matter.

Just out of the sack.. Time difference :-))

The average Swiss appears to make sound decisions..

All comes down to education really.

[macduffy]

The Aussie non-result will likely throw another spanner in the works for a while. Expect a down day Aust/NZ.

[janner]

Define sound decisions. The Swiss can be just as bigoted as a bigoted UKIP Brexiteer...the 2009 Swiss referendum on banning the construction of minarets for example.

Noise problem :-)))

[Bjauck]

The Aussie non-result will likely throw another spanner in the works for a while. Expect a down day Aust/NZ. The markets dislike uncertainty - esp. on top of Brexit,

[janner]

Noisier than church bells? Compare and contrast the call to prayer with bells tolling away....


Way, way more frequent..

[minimoke]

Way, way more frequent..5 times a day and really early. You can say goodbye to a sleep in.

[janner]

As opposed to three times a day for many churches (6am noon and 6pm)...and for half an hour plus early on Sundays? That is not including practices and campanolgy groups using the bell towers....Have you stayed in a Swiss village early on a Sunday morning? Anyway take a look at the posters used in the referendum....it was not noise that was the main issue.

The UK certainly does not have the monoply on racists and "fear of immigrants" in Europe. A destabilising issue throughout the EU atm.

Why the dissatisfaction of their own residence ... ??.

Do we want or need such gutless people ???..

Has to be said :-)))


Waiting for the knee jerk replies.. :-)))

Why ???

Because in my experience.. Most Indians want to control..

Hindu Heaven.... A Hard hat.. A high Vis vest... A clip board..

No.. No.. No.. Vat you must be doing is...

Why is India the country we all want to go to ??

Useless up them selves people.. IMHO..

[Biscuit]

Why the dissatisfaction of their own residence ... ??.



I've talked to many Brits who have left the UK and immigrated here and nearly all of them have complained about the level of immigration to the UK and cited that as a reason for coming to NZ. The irony of that seems to escape them.

[minimoke]

I've talked to many Brits who have left the UK and immigrated here and nearly all of them have complained about the level of immigration to the UK and cited that as a reason for coming to NZ. The irony of that seems to escape them.
Except there is no irony. To come to nz you need a job offer, have health clearance and police checks. You dont get access to health care unless you have a minimum 2 year visa. Entry to nz isnt guaranteed.

As a european apparently you can just bowl into the uk and get instant access to all the goodies.

[Biscuit]

Except there is no irony. To come to nz you need a job offer, have health clearance and police checks. You dont get access to health care unless you have a minimum 2 year visa. Entry to nz isnt guaranteed.

As a european apparently you can just bowl into the uk and get instant access to all the goodies.

Yes, except no one I have talked to has complained about them getting the goodies - they've complained about them being there. Ironic, don't you think?

[minimoke]

Yes, except no one I have talked to has complained about them getting the goodies - they've complained about them being there. Ironic, don't you think?
The englush i talked to complained about the goodies "we gave worked all this time and paid our taxes and these people bowl up and get straight into it for free" or words to that effect. And the refugees pass through six safe eu nations to get to the uk. Why? Because of the free goodies.

One comment did surprise me. Apparently you can't put a union jack up anymore. It might upset a migrant and is therefore racist. Don't know if it's true or not as its a few years since i was in the uk.

[blackcap]

And the refugees pass through six safe eu nations to get to the uk. .

I do not think that is the definition of a refugee. And therein lies the problem. They are economic migrants and currently there are no border protections and other sovereign rights that a country in the EU has.

[Biscuit]

The englush i talked to complained about the goodies

I guess you just have a more refined class of English acquaintances than me.

[macduffy]

One comment did surprise me. Apparently you can't put a union jack up anymore. It might upset a migrant and is therefore racist. Don't know if it's true or not as its a few years since i was in the uk.

Better haul down that union jack flying over Buckingham Palace then. Can't use an EU flag, perhaps a Scottish one would be safer!

;)

[mfd]

The englush i talked to complained about the goodies "we gave worked all this time and paid our taxes and these people bowl up and get straight into it for free" or words to that effect. And the refugees pass through six safe eu nations to get to the uk. Why? Because of the free goodies.

One comment did surprise me. Apparently you can't put a union jack up anymore. It might upset a migrant and is therefore racist. Don't know if it's true or not as its a few years since i was in the uk.

Well I haven't lived there for a couple of years but I'm still happy to categorically say that you're allowed to fly the flag. Sounds like the kind of tabloid invention that helped convince the country to shoot itself in the foot the other week.

As I understand it from interviews with refugees in Calais, the reason some are passing through Europe to get to the uk is because they have family or friends there to help them get established, and/or they already speak English. It's scary leaving a dangerous country to live somewhere where you know noone and can't speak the language.

[Big Blind]

Well I haven't lived there for a couple of years but I'm still happy to categorically say that you're allowed to fly the flag. Sounds like the kind of tabloid invention that helped convince the country to shoot itself in the foot the other week.
.

You don't actually see that many British flags in Britain, as most people firstly (and more strongly) identify themselves as being English, Welsh, Scottish or Irish. The British patriotism is normally reserved for Royal weddings, the Olympics (where the home nations compete as GB).....and UKIP!!!!

[minimoke]

Might have something to do with the English flag being flown during the crusades and now upsetting to Muslims.

[mfd]

Might have something to do with the English flag being flown during the crusades and now upsetting to Muslims.

Again, I think that's a fabrication from those trying to demonize Muslims. If everyone who had been at war with Britain had a problem with the flag, most of the world would be up in arms. Do not underestimate the ability of the UK press to just make **** up.

[janner]

Except there is no irony. To come to nz you need a job offer, have health clearance and police checks. You dont get access to health care unless you have a minimum 2 year visa. Entry to nz isnt guaranteed.


Yes it is.. A bodgie degree.. at most... or come as a student.. Apply for an essential job in a restaurant. Bingo..

Was there not a motor mechanic in the Herald a few months ago complaining that he could not get a job after six months ( yeah right ).

Went to a management course and is now a MANAGER of a restaurant on $17 an hour..


Easy Peasy...

[minimoke]

Yes it is.. A bodgie degree.. at most... or come as a student.. Apply for an essential job in a restaurant. Bingo..

Was there not a motor mechanic in the Herald a few months ago complaining that he could not get a job ( yeah right ).

Went to a management course and is now a MANAGER of a restaurant on $17 an hour..

Easy Peasy...
You are of course kind of correct. We do have this great scam running which brings students into the county to be part of our 2nd (?) Largest contributer to GDP - paid education. And the other scam which is only being able to use an indian speaking waiter in the local takeaway.

But at least we have a nominal visa process.

[sb9]

NZX 50 inching close to that magical 7000 mark again...BREXIT? what BREXIT??

[Lewylewylewy]

[QUOTE=Lewylewylewy;626280]Well, that's the end of the brexit vote panic. Hopefully everyone enjoyed their black Friday bargain shopping.


Do you mind if I save that quote for later?:)

Meanwhile ..for those of you going to the UK---the pound is sinking farther..

Absolutely, feel free to use it later :)

[skid]

Has any one else noticed that the safe heaven(us bonds-$us-Gold )are in high demand? There are also apparently 11 trillion worth of other countries bonds getting negative interest rates.

[Leftfield]

Has any one else noticed that the safe heaven(us bonds-$us-Gold )are in high demand? There are also apparently 11 trillion worth of other countries bonds getting negative interest rates.

In my dreams NZX is also seen as a 'safe haven'.!! ;)

[arc]

After the Brexit excitement...and now the nervous unsure-of-it lull

Motto for the day

8149

[Grunter]

US the only economy looking at upward pressure on interest rates?

[Grunter]

One fund manager in NZ commenting that the rebound post-brexit shows quant strategies are continuing to dominate in the era of free money

[ratkin]

Pound slides to a new low
Bank of England says Brexit problems starting to crystalise
More property funds halt redemptions
Bank property and supermarket shares slump

Its not over, just the beginning. Meanwhile the stupid people of Sunderland are apparently now shocked to discover they are about to lose Hundreds of millions in Eu funding.

Nz exports to the Uk Are sure to suffer. Wine and food etc will go into the too pricey bracket for British consumers, at least once the supermarkets price war peters out.

To add to Europes worries Italy could be about to go under.

The dominoes are lining up

[Balance]

Pound slides to a new low
Bank of England says Brexit problems starting to crystalise
More property funds halt redemptions
Bank property and supermarket shares slump

Its not over, just the beginning. Meanwhile the stupid people of Sunderland are apparently now shocked to discover they are about to lose Hundreds of millions in Eu funding.

Nz exports to the Uk Are sure to suffer. Wine and food etc will go into the too pricey bracket for British consumers, at least once the supermarkets price war peters out.

To add to Europes worries Italy could be about to go under.

The dominoes are lining up

And share markets (and properties) will soar as Central Banks and governments flood their economies with 'helicopter' money as long as inflation remains under wraps.

[sb9]

And share markets (and properties) will soar as Central Banks and governments flood their economies with 'helicopter' money as long as inflation remains under wraps.

Yes and on that note we just broke the 7000 mark as I type....

[minimoke]

Yes and on that note we just broke the 7000 mark as I type....
My property folio is up, shares are up, cost of borrowing remains low, near parity with AUD and buying out of UK and USA cheaper.

We will look back on this as our Golden Era

[sb9]

My property folio is up, shares are up, cost of borrowing remains low, near parity with AUD and buying out of UK and USA cheaper.

We will look back on this as our Golden Era

Shall we call it the "Paradigm Shift" in the financial markets ....

[Big Blind]

My property folio is up, shares are up, cost of borrowing remains low, near parity with AUD and buying out of UK and USA cheaper.

We will look back on this as our Golden Era
For those who are fortunate enough to already have assets, maybe. For those who can't afford, they'll just see the rich-poor divide getting ever wider

[fish]

And share markets (and properties) will soar as Central Banks and governments flood their economies with 'helicopter' money as long as inflation remains under wraps.
There is always a good side
They should soar-but who knows?

[skid]

My property folio is up, shares are up, cost of borrowing remains low, near parity with AUD and buying out of UK and USA cheaper.

We will look back on this as our Golden Era

Dont forget cheap oil

[minimoke]

For those who are fortunate enough to already have assets, maybe. For those who can't afford, they'll just see the rich-poor divide getting ever wideroh blah blah blah. Dont give me any of this "fortunate" bull****. I've worked hard for my assets. For Anyone wanting to bridge the rich poor devide is to stop whinging. Any one can afford to get started - they just have to understand the start is just that - is not the half way point.

[minimoke]

Shall we call it the "Paradigm Shift" in the financial markets ....
I think "disruptive" might be better

[skid]

For those who are fortunate enough to already have assets, maybe. For those who can't afford, they'll just see the rich-poor divide getting ever wider

when you got nothing-you got nothing to lose---Things look good atm ,but I dont think many would call this particularly stable--It could all come unstuck pretty fast as their are not to many safety nets at this stage---It seems a long shot right now ,but that property could become far more affordable if things good south (that would hurt me as well)---I took a loss on my one remaining share. I would have come out better if I had held but thought that it was a bit reckless with what could have happened(and still could) my Gold however has more than made up for that(and even silver)--That is one reason why i think its good to not become complacent--They have held,meaning many are still thinking a safe haven is prudent,even with the rise in share markets.
Money is cheap,(so cheap that there are trillions in a negative interest environment) so why?---IMO its still to stop future blood--but the risk is a bubble,and then if problems happen,its not a cut ,but an amputation.
We are now getting closer to seeing countries fall--the normal ''problem countries''in Europe but also Brazil is looking vulnerable and of course Valenzuela--so while things are looking like we have dodged a bullet,it is not business as usual.
The share market is a funny beast -In England the market has recovered,while the Pound tanks ,and the property market is showing signs of an ugly fall.

[skid]

oh blah blah blah. Dont give me any of this "fortunate" bull****. I've worked hard for my assets. For Anyone wanting to bridge the rich poor devide is to stop whinging. Any one can afford to get started - they just have to understand the start is just that - is not the half way point.

I think the point is ,not how you made you dosh--but how that gap will play out in the future--Thats basically what happened with Brexit--That kickback what could easily happen in France-Italy and of course Greece----Us with assets need the system to keep humming along--those without couldnt give a stuff.---That rich-poor devide will cost us in other ways as well like the health system----Im betting you didnt grow up in South Auckland--(so while you did well,it wasnt a completely level playing field) the ''Dunedin Experiment'' shows how starting out disadvantaged can cost the system as a whole.--The republicans in the USA like to talk that line about getting off their bums and working,but its been proven that looking after your people better pays dividends in the future(and Im not just talking about handouts)
You and I may have had to scrimp and save to buy property --but its inflation that has done the real work.

[minimoke]

I think the point is ,not how you made you dosh--but how that gap will play out in the future-
There has always been gaps and there always will be. The motivated will broaden the gap. The unmotivated will continue to suck off the teats of those that have.

-Thats basically what happened with Brexit--That kickback what could easily happen in France-Italy and of course Greece---- brixit isnt new. There always has been uprisings of one sort or another. Always will be.


Us with assets need the system to keep humming along--those without couldnt give a stuff.- those that dont give a stuff do so until some sense of entitlement appears on their horizon. Then watch them take an interest.

That rich-poor devide will cost us in other ways as well like the health system not according to the likes of tariana turia. She reckons there will be little superanuation cost associated maroi - as they wont live long enough. Smokers pay their way. It takes money to buy coke and KFC - yet these consumers are likely to overburden the health system.


Im betting you didnt grow up in South Auckland-
you are right i didnt. When i was able i moved to where the opportunities were. Before then i had equal access to warm milk as part of my free primary education while accessing the health services that were available to all.
I could have taken advantage of a subsidised university education just like everyone else but chose to work instead.


-(so while you did well,it wasnt a completely level playing field) the playing field is level already. Its just some cant be bothered moving when the starting whistle blows.

the ''Dunedin Experiment'' shows how starting out disadvantaged can cost the system as a whole.- which is why i don't mind part of my income being syphoned off to those who can't help themselves


but its been proven that looking after your people better pays dividends in the future(and Im not just talking about handouts) caring for others can come from both sides of the divide.

You and I may have had to scrimp and save to buy property --but its inflation that has done the real work.
No, though it does play a part. Its more about discipline and paying down debt so assets outstrip liabilities.

Renters can apply the same discipline. But how many put the difference between rent costs and property ownership costs into something that will increase their net worth?

[blackcap]

Renters can apply the same discipline. But how many put the difference between rent costs and property ownership costs into something that will increase their net worth?

That is the crux for so many people. I have a professional friend who is looking to buy and acknowledges that his "costs" will increase by $150 pw if he does buy. However he has not been saving $150pw at all, in fact has never saved and is a financial dunce. If he had saved this in the last 20 odd years and grown his investment he might have something. But because he prefers to spend on frivilous things he is not saddled with debt and struggling to get by week on week. Sad but reality for so many renters in this country. But they make their own bed.

[minimoke]

and is a financial dunce. it should not take a Financial wizard to work out that when we retire our opportunity to earn will reduce but we will still need to pay for a roof over our heads.

You do this by either being a property owner and being mortgage free. Or a non property owner with a portfolio of assets (which ought to include health) that will create cash to pay the rent.

It can't get simpler than that. Sadly i suspect I'll be paying for those that haven't figured this out.

[minimoke]

This for the risk-off worry warts........

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/sp-cuts-australia-credit-rating-outlook-to-negative.html
What else could you expect when pauline hanson may hold the balance of power.

[Baa_Baa]

Colin Twiggs weighs in on the current situation, it's worth a mention I think, and some consideration. The good times never last forever, the key is deciding when the good time are over and/or riding the wave until they are over.

JMHO
Attribution to Colin Twiggs at http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts.com/trading_diary.php

One chart that sums up our predicament

By Colin Twiggs
July 7th, 2016 2:30 a.m. EDT/4:30 p.m. AEST
Advice herein is provided for the general information of readers and does not have regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, no reader should act on the basis of any information contained herein without first having consulted a suitably qualified financial advisor.


Richard Russell (http://astore.amazon.com/incrediblecha-20/detail/1607965186), after conducting research in the early 1960s, based on the earlier work of Charles Dow, concluded that stock markets are over-valued when the dividend yield falls below 3.5% (and undervalued when above 6.0%). This basic rule-of-thumb held true for almost a century but times have changed and the advent of stock buybacks has significantly lowered returns (http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/dow_theory_market_phases.php) to investors by way of dividend.
With dividend yields no longer an accurate reflection of returns to investors, the best measure of market value is the Price Earnings Ratio (PE). Earnings per share will fluctuate in line with dividends in the long term but, in the short-term, more accurately reflect actual performance. Companies are often reluctant to cut dividends and will instead increase the payout ratio (dividends as a percentage of earnings) rather than disappoint investors when earnings are poor. While there are a number of accounting issues related to recognition of earnings, with some inaccuracy expected when compared to actual cash flows, the relationship is likely to remain reasonably constant over time.
The PE ratio for an index like the S&P 500 is simply the index price divided by earnings per share weighted for all the companies that make up the index. If we chart the index PE over time, it gives a reliable measure of when stocks are highly-priced and when they are undervalued. PEs above 20 on the right-hand scale indicate when stocks are normally considered over-priced.
http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2016/2016-06-27-spx-per.pngBut the highest PE ratios occur, not at peaks, but after market crashes. And bull markets often coincide with lower PE ratios. Higher PEs are often attributed to animal spirits, with speculative fever driving up prices but that is often not the cause. The chart below compares the S&P 500 index to quarterly earnings per share (EPS) growth. Falling earnings, with growth below zero on the right-hand scale, that last for more than 4 quarters are highlighted with red/green depending on the severity.
http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2016/2016-06-27-spx-epsgrowth.pngThe first PE surge, in the early 1990s, was caused by declining earnings per share over more than 2 years. The market held firm, without a major collapse, because a PE ratio below 15 suggests that stocks were undervalued. Falling earnings caused the ratio to rise but it soon recovered when earnings growth resumed, leading to a record-breaking bull market.
The next major peak, in the late 1990s, was clearly a case of animal spirits. Dotcom euphoria led investors to chase prices up well ahead of earnings, with PE soaring to above 30.
http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2016/2016-06-27-spx-pe.pngI have highlighted the same periods of earnings decline (in green/red) on the chart above. The Dotcom crash, with falling earnings, caused even higher PEs as earnings declined faster than prices. EPS growth soon enough resumed as earnings recovered, out-stripping the index, with the PE ratio subsiding below 20.
Low PEs coincided with another bull market leading up to the GFC. Onset of the sub-prime crisis again caused a sharp fall in earnings, driving the PE ratio higher. The market teetered for several quarters before Lehman's collapse brought very survival of the banking system into question, with an earnings contraction so severe that a market rout was inevitable. Within a few quarters, however, the PE ratio subsided as earnings recovered.
The recent fall in earnings since 2014, brought about by falling oil and commodity prices, caused another PE surge. The ratio to As Reported Earnings rose to 23.83 at the end of March 2016. So far, the market has not panicked, similar to the response in the early 1990s.
The 1989-1991 era had its share of troubles: a savings and loan crisis in the US, Iraq invaded Kuwait, Britain was forced to withdraw the pound sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), and Japanese stock and real estate markets collapsed. The market survived these trials because valuations were modest.
Valuations are no doubt higher because of record low interest rates. But they were only driven to extremes by falling earnings. Resumption of earnings growth would be a bullish sign, with PE ratios expected to fall as growth outstrips the index. Slow growth is likely to evoke a more muted response than earlier bull markets. Unless there are further falls in earnings, however, contagion from low commodity and oil prices has been contained and we are unlikely to experience another bear market.
What we are waiting for is earnings to recover at a faster rate than the S&P 500 Index. I have plotted earnings (EPS) growth minus index growth on the chart below. You can see that earnings growth outstripped index growth ahead of each of the last three bull markets.
http://static.incrediblecharts.com/images/2016/2016-07-07-spx-eps-growth.pngSimilar signs in the next few quarters would signal the start of another advance. But it is too soon to anticipate until we see at least one good quarter of earnings growth.

[Balance]

Surely must be time to rename this thread : BRIGHT MONDAY.

Every black Monday since this thread was initiated has turned out to be golden & great opportunities to buy stocks cheap and reap huge returns.

[macduffy]

Surely must be time to rename this thread : BRIGHT MONDAY.

Every black Monday since this thread was initiated has turned out to be golden & great opportunities to buy stocks cheap and reap huge returns.

No, Balance. Don't go changing a good thing!

;)

[Balance]

No, Balance. Don't go changing a good thing!

;)

Tis' true unfortunately - just feel bad for so many newbies who are scared out of their wits every time market takes a tumble.

Just remember 'Helicopter' money next time.

[Bobdn]

I know at one point SKT was below its pre merger announcement price. Incredible.

[bull....]

breakout dow, S&p if it holds 20k is the target based on the 2yr consolidation range on the chart all subjective of course but be cool if we get there.
watching bank England this week and what ben bernake is in japan doing ( helicopter money?)(:

[craic]

Rapid fire change of PM is one big plus. No replay of brexit vote - new leader in place by Friday -France choking on the Portugal encounter now has to swallow another large brick. Watch the markets here jumping for joy. I'm off to the shed to put down another brew and another wash to make vodka for the rellies - and a little rum for me.

[bull....]

also remember stocks are very cheap relative to bonds

[Hectorplains]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/while-you-were-sleeping-wall-street-hits-record-highs-ng-191525

Sets the scene for today...

[skid]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/while-you-were-sleeping-wall-street-hits-record-highs-ng-191525

Sets the scene for today...

the US share market is certainly steaming ahead--but is the US economy?---Bubbles are hard to predict except in hindsight.---Greed has been winning the rounds so far though--but if the direction changes its going to suck in a hellava lot of people who think that this pattern is permanent.--Interesting times

[workingdad]

the US share market is certainly steaming ahead--but is the US economy?---Bubbles are hard to predict except in hindsight.---Greed has been winning the rounds so far though--but if the direction changes its going to suck in a hellava lot of people who think that this pattern is permanent.--Interesting times

Greed and the reliance on QE and central banks to throw money at it....

I agree though, I am being careful of late after cashing up earlier in the year and dabbling here and there, got caught up in some AIR shares which haven't proven to be the best decision of late but they are coming right. I'm ready to take advantage of a bust scenario if it happens but the resilience shown thus far makes me question the imminence of it....

[Hectorplains]

Greed is always a driver! I think the the psychological positive of Brexit proving a financial crisis fizzer coupled with the U.S. July job figures being well ahead of expectation and that bond yields are so poor has lead this surge. Now, what would happen if there was a positive turnaround in US stock earnings?

[Nasi Goreng]

Does anyone here study Elliot Wave?

I was just looking at the S&P500 weekly chart and see an A,B,C formation starting in June 2015 and it looks like it's now ended which could mean we are in for quite a big move upward. This could be the beginning of wave 5 of the recovery which started during the GFC.

[workingdad]

Greed is always a driver! I think the the psychological positive of Brexit proving a financial crisis fizzer coupled with the U.S. July job figures being well ahead of expectation and that bond yields are so poor has lead this surge. Now, what would happen if there was a positive turnaround in US stock earnings?

We will be finding out very soon and with a lot of companies being somewhat conservative in estimates I think earnings will meet or exceed market expectations but in saying that, I think the bubble is forming and has been for a while.....

[ratkin]

Did the coup in Turkey happen after the DOW closed? Region will go into chaos if they cannot regain control of the country

[Bjauck]

Did the coup in Turkey happen after the DOW closed? Region will go into chaos if they cannot regain control of the country Is this the seventh coup or putsch in Turkey since wwII?

[Baa_Baa]

Does anyone here study Elliot Wave?

I was just looking at the S&P500 weekly chart and see an A,B,C formation starting in June 2015 and it looks like it's now ended which could mean we are in for quite a big move upward. This could be the beginning of wave 5 of the recovery which started during the GFC.

This guy does, with a very optimistic outlook for SP500. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-only-a-matter-of-time-before-the-global-melt-up-2016-07-11?link=MW_TD

And his charts here https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-S-P-INX-201607101312.html

[Nasi Goreng]

Thanks Baa Baa, I find EW charts a challenge as whenever I have done them myself, they differ to those done by other chartists. In the attached monthly chart, it suggests we are still in wave 3 which is supposed to be the longest wave but EW theorists are better at drawing charts after the event rather than during. In saying that, I am suggesting the last 12 months has been a wave 4 consolidation and I see this as a potential wave 5 which could take the S&P to the 2300+ range.

I think over the last 12 months, the market has had multiple reasons to sell off and each time has consolidated and pulled back. The biggest of all reasons to sell off was Brexit and the market bounced back almost immediately and surprised a lot of people by hitting new highs. There has been plenty of cash on the sidelines and I think this breakout will bring in lots of new cash to the market taking it higher and higher.

Over the last week, I've added to my positions and I'm almost in a position where I'm fully invested.

[kura]

Was reading in news over weekend, about how China was threatening to retaliate against our exporters if the Govt went ahead to investigate dumping of Chinese steel on our local market.

I don't want to comment on the morals (intimidation ) , just openly wondering if some of our recent high fliers that have been fueled by the Chinese consumption scenario, are going to be in for a short term hit ?

[Southern_Belle]

Was reading in news over weekend, about how China was threatening to retaliate against our exporters if the Govt went ahead to investigate dumping of Chinese steel on our local market.

I don't want to comment on the morals (intimidation ) , just openly wondering if some of our recent high fliers that have been fueled by the Chinese consumption scenario, are going to be in for a short term hit ?

Don'the underestimate the savvy Chinese consumer. The unofficial exporting of products such as baby milk powder, manuka honey, health products, is huge. Not only are they efficient at supplying products tor family and friends back home, they also make good profits on marking up the prices. Sup-market had to limit cans of milk powder to 2 per customer as the shelves being stripped by unofficial Chinese exporters.

[Balance]

Was reading in news over weekend, about how China was threatening to retaliate against our exporters if the Govt went ahead to investigate dumping of Chinese steel on our local market.

I don't want to comment on the morals (intimidation ) , just openly wondering if some of our recent high fliers that have been fueled by the Chinese consumption scenario, are going to be in for a short term hit ?

Firstly, be careful of lobby groups attempting to use political muscle for their own purposes.

Don't under-estimate the two dominant players in the steel industry (Fletcher Steel and Bluescope) in NZ playing up the steel issue in a big way to maintain their monopoly prices and market position. STU now sources steel directly from China when it comes to big contracts not involving Fletcher Building - guess how the two dominant players here are feeling?

There are also several other factors to consider :

1. The ones really at fault here are the importers (NZ companies) who imported the substandard steel from China so China is well within its right to demand answers from NZ government as to what is actually happening. Steel and Tube has taken a hit on the Huntly project being the importer but interesting enough, the massive Waterview project finishing now in Auckland has as one of its main contractors, Fletcher Building, supplying substandard concrete forcing a major redesign and rework. Was there a huge hoo-ha about this?

2. If China retaliates, there is no question that it will impact on our exporters - depending on how exposed they are to China and how quickly they can divert their products to other markets. We are now in the off season so there's actually time to work through an adjustment if necessary. It is for this very reason why NZ meat companies for example limit their exposure to China to a maximum of 30%.

In any case, without commenting on moral issues or otherwise, NZ always back down when it comes to most trade disputes so no worries there about the investigation going the whole hog into punitive actions on both sides.

Remember Rainbow Warrior? Murderers were released to avoid the threat of trade embargo from France.

[stoploss]

Firstly, be careful of lobby groups attempting to use political muscle for their own purposes.

Don't under-estimate the two dominant players in the steel industry (Fletcher Steel and Bluescope) in NZ playing up the steel issue in a big way to maintain their monopoly prices and market position. STU now sources steel directly from China when it comes to big contracts not involving Fletcher Building - guess how the two dominant players here are feeling?

There are also several other factors to consider :

1. The ones really at fault here are the importers (NZ companies) who imported the substandard steel from China so China is well within its right to demand answers from NZ government as to what is actually happening. Steel and Tube has taken a hit on the Huntly project being the importer but interesting enough, the massive Waterview project finishing now in Auckland has as one of its main contractors, Fletcher Building, supplying substandard concrete forcing a major redesign and rework. Was there a huge hoo-ha about this?

2. If China retaliates, there is no question that it will impact on our exporters - depending on how exposed they are to China and how quickly they can divert their products to other markets. We are now in the off season so there's actually time to work through an adjustment if necessary. It is for this very reason why NZ meat companies for example limit their exposure to China to a maximum of 30%.

In any case, without commenting on moral issues or otherwise, NZ always back down when it comes to most trade disputes so no worries there about the investigation going the whole hog into punitive actions on both sides.

Remember Rainbow Warrior? Murderers were released to avoid the threat of trade embargo from France.

Hi Balance ,
My biggest issue here is "sub standard steel " .
When there have been issues over milk powder with China everything en route was stopped , turned back etc . They had to come out here and "certify " all the production plants .
So you say our companies are at fault for importing "sub standard " steel , are you saying they knew it was substandard ?
Or was this meant to be manufactured to a certain standard by the Chinese and doesn't meet this standard , big difference here the latter I would be sending the lot back like happened to various dairy products ...... However if we knowingly imported something not fit for purpose , it's our own fault .

Cheers

S/L

[Balance]

Hi Balance ,
My biggest issue here is "sub standard steel " .
When there have been issues over milk powder with China everything en route was stopped , turned back etc . They had to come out here and "certify " all the production plants .
So you say our companies are at fault for importing "sub standard " steel , are you saying they knew it was substandard ?
Or was this meant to be manufactured to a certain standard by the Chinese and doesn't meet this standard , big difference here the latter I would be sending the lot back like happened to various dairy products ...... However if we knowingly imported something not fit for purpose , it's our own fault .

Cheers

S/L

I do not think that the buyers here willingly buy sub-standard steel.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/280402

Hope this answers your question.

As an aside, consumers who go into a 2 dollar shop to buy garden tools should not expect the tools to last more than a few months?

[arc]

Another of Mary Meekers Interesting trend analysis reports
http://www.kpcb.com/internet-trends

[kiora]

I do not think that the buyers here willingly buy sub-standard steel.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/STU/announcements/280402

Hope this answers your question.

As an aside, consumers who go into a 2 dollar shop to buy garden tools should not expect the tools to last more than a few months?

Not willinging just unwittenly for Huntly bypass

[Balance]

Was reading in news over weekend, about how China was threatening to retaliate against our exporters if the Govt went ahead to investigate dumping of Chinese steel on our local market.

I don't want to comment on the morals (intimidation ) , just openly wondering if some of our recent high fliers that have been fueled by the Chinese consumption scenario, are going to be in for a short term hit ?

Now the source which 'leaked' the trade retaliation story disavows the information :

NBR

"China 'trade war' source disavows story
Mon 18 Jul

Former trade negotiator reveals the flakiness of the rumour, and what he actually uncovered".

Pays to be careful with these lobbyists and self-servers.

[bull....]

dow , s&P holding so far in breakout territory 2 yr consolidation range has 20k target still if it continues to hold us earnings looking good breadth good so lets see big week this week.
nz market still looks cheap relative to others

[couta1]

dow , s&P holding so far in breakout territory 2 yr consolidation range has 20k target still if it continues to hold us earnings looking good breadth good so lets see big week this week.
nz market still looks cheap relative to others Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

[Snow Leopard]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

You are supposed to look in the direction in which you are travelling.

Making decisions off the back of historical P/E ratios is a recipe for poor performance.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Nasi Goreng]

Does anyone think fibre will be the way we get internet in 30 years? Think back to where we were in 1986 and progress made since then... and then think forward to 2046 when you might have got your money back. I wouldn't pay 30 times earnings for CNU.

[bull....]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

guess you wouldn't have pay 200x earnings for amazon either in 2009 when it was 100 now 700 odd

[Hoop]

Cheap when you'rve got stocks like CNU trading on a PE of 30, I don't think so, but a few such as Air/IFT and NZR are still cheap yes.

When valuing cyclical stocks the best reliability is to average the last 10 years data...or average the data over an entire cycle.
Cyclical stocks are a different breed of animal ...danger signs emerge when their PE Ratio become very low...

In other words...
1..the market is telling you that future earnings are no longer sustainable at current values...
2..the market is forward (future) looking, while the financials reported are recent history...hence the low PE at the moment
3..the best time to buy cyclical stocks is (opposite to logic) when their PE ratio is very high..not when their PE Ratios are extremely low.

try googling how to value cyclical stocks
(https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=how+to+value+cyclical+stocks&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=mX2VV6OuC8rN8gesg6r4Ag)

[cyclist]

3..the best time to buy cyclical stocks is (opposite to logic) when their PE ratio is very high..not when their PE Ratios are extremely low.

Would another way of saying the same thing?: Buy when they are historically cheap in $ terms, and they are cheap because everything (profit) has turned to crap.

[fish]

I wouldn't be interested in buying most shares on the NZX currently,overinflated prices being driven by divvy hunters giving little or no thought as to whether what they are buying is at a reasonable price or not, as long as its better than a term deposit it will do kinda mentality, now when is the next black Monday due to arrive?

Nor were you interested in buying chorus when they were $2.
SP has many drivers-its a little more complex than you assume
I must admit I sold all my chorus a couple of weeks ago-and they have kept rising since-but I did keep buying as it kept dropping below $2 and for a short time I wondered if you were right.
Sentiment can drive prices both too high and too low and no one knows where the nzx will be next week-or next year
My chorus gains mitigated my nzo losses- my intention is always to buy with future dividends in mind rather than trade.However I decided I wanted a charter boat more than chorus shares but have kept NZO even though they seem unlikely to be paying dividends anytime soon.
I wouldnt presume the majority of investors are giving little or no thought as to what is a reasonable price.

[couta1]

Nor were you interested in buying chorus when they were $2.
SP has many drivers-its a little more complex than you assume
I must admit I sold all my chorus a couple of weeks ago-and they have kept rising since-but I did keep buying as it kept dropping below $2 and for a short time I wondered if you were right.
Sentiment can drive prices both too high and too low and no one knows where the nzx will be next week-or next year
My chorus gains mitigated my nzo losses- my intention is always to buy with future dividends in mind rather than trade.However I decided I wanted a charter boat more than chorus shares but have kept NZO even though they seem unlikely to be paying dividends anytime soon.
I wouldnt presume the majority of investors are giving little or no thought as to what is a reasonable price. Sentiments of Fear and Greed are the main drivers of SP, Greed is in charge currently. PS - I've held many shares on and off since Chorus was $2 including Chorus itself and wouldn't buy it at its current price nor Spark for that matter.

[Raz]

I wouldn't be interested in buying most shares on the NZX currently,overinflated prices being driven by divvy hunters giving little or no thought as to whether what they are buying is at a reasonable price or not, as long as its better than a term deposit it will do kinda mentality, now when is the next black Monday due to arrive?

should be quote of the day...keeping it real Couta1

[Ace]

Agree that fear and greed do drive SP, however a good quote comes to mind from Buffett, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." and ultimately it depends what you think is a fair price which in turn determines how good of an investor you may be comparatively to others, although that shouldn't matter and it's about improving on your own record. In the end I wouldn't focus too much on market sentiment, which usually stirs investors down the wrong path - I believe it's a lot easier to pick a good or decent company than buying or selling a company at the perfect time. If the fundamentals are sound, the price will reflect this in the long run. You can never accurately guess what the market will do. But that's just me - several weeks ago I was considering selling some of my holdings to fund my purchase of a Testarossa from the states, one of my dream cars as a child - so I guess that brings my financial acumen under question, so it may be best just to ignore me lol.

[Raz]

Agree that fear and greed do drive SP, however a good quote comes to mind from Buffett, "It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price." and ultimately it depends what you think is a fair price which in turn determines how good of an investor you may be comparatively to others, although that shouldn't matter and it's about improving on your own record. In the end I wouldn't focus too much on market sentiment, which usually stirs investors down the wrong path - I believe it's a lot easier to pick a good or decent company than buying or selling a company at the perfect time. If the fundamentals are sound, the price will reflect this in the long run. You can never accurately guess what the market will do. But that's just me - several weeks ago I was considering selling some of my holdings to fund my purchase of a Testarossa from the states, one of my dream cars as a child - so I guess that brings my financial acumen under question, so it may be best just to ignore me lol.

They are still nice cars..:-)

[Ace]

They are still nice cars..:-)

Sure are! Was conflicted between a 512tr or Testarossa, too many nice cars from that era - including the Countach. Infact I have too many dream cars, can't just have one. Dodge Viper GTS hnnnnng....

[winner69]

Must be due for another Black Monday

October not far away

[Blue Horseshoe]

27th of September, book it in.

[Hoop]

27th of September, book it in.

Why the 27th..that's a Tuesday :confused:

[Snow Leopard]

27th of September, book it in.


Why the 27th..that's a Tuesday :confused:

He did not specify a year.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[winner69]

Why the 27th..that's a Tuesday :confused:

Maybe consequence of bad Monday in the USA

Been 43 days where S&P500 hasn't had a +/- 1% day

Longish periods of stability lead to instability?

[NeverQuestion]

Why the 27th..that's a Tuesday :confused:

It was known as Black Tuesday in NZ "In Australia and New Zealand, the 1987 crash is also referred to as "Black Tuesday" because of the time zone difference" :cool:

[Xerof]

Oh God, and here I was waiting for Black Monday, when all the time it was really a Tuesday. What a complete waste of a thread title

Tigger is probably nearer the truth - 2021. I think dividend yields still provide a huge amount of cushioning for underlying pricing, and I still hold the view interest rates are not going to structurally rise anytime soon - soon = next decade

W69, you've been listening to Harbour man haven't you....

[minimoke]

Must be due for another Black Monday

October not far away
I hope so. My portfolio has never looked better - and always seems to go up after these catastophic events.

[In4a$]

I reckon Monday 31st Oct. 1 week and bit before USA elections.
Guessing some out there might sell down with the uncertainty over what will happen with either new president !!
I am not selling but keeping some spare $ to spend if market does take a drop.
Who knows, we might start calling it "trump" Monday :-)

[winner69]

Maybe consequence of bad Monday in the USA

Been 43 days where S&P500 hasn't had a +/- 1% day

Longish periods of stability lead to instability?

Whoops - overnight action all my fault

Sorry guys

[axe]

Thanks Winner. Does this mean we will get some discounted prices here when we reinvest our upcoming divvy's?


Whoops - overnight action all my fault

Sorry guys

[winner69]

Thanks Winner. Does this mean we will get some discounted prices here when we reinvest our upcoming divvy's?

Hopefully yes

AIR at $1.70 in a month - that what you after?

[axe]

Hopefully yes

AIR at $1.70 in a month - that what you after?

Yes and a few other quality stocks like FPH and EBO; discounts would be nice on those also? Anything else in my wishlist??? Hmmm I could do with more RYM too... :)

What could rising interest rates in the US do to the NZ/USD? Especially if NZ rates keep dropping.....

[fish]

Yes and a few other quality stocks like FPH and EBO; discounts would be nice on those also? Anything else in my wishlist??? Hmmm I could do with more RYM too... :)

What could rising interest rates in the US do to the NZ/USD? Especially if NZ rates keep dropping.....

Logic would say money will be moved out of the NZ market in antiicpation.
But so many other factors come into it e.g who are our major trading partners ?
Low nz interest rates reduce costs for most nz companies.
You really have to consider the effect this would have on individual companies

[Baa_Baa]

Must be due for another Black Monday

October not far away

Prescient. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-09/bondmageddon-sparks-crude-carnage-biggest-stock-slump-7-months lots of scary charts.

Party over, or just a breather?

[NZSilver]

yeh it was very quiet for a long time, but just another blip so traders can make a few bucks. As the last 10 or so corrections have shown us the recovery dosn't take long. The real one will come eventually but who know when, but it seems we're are tracking along a lot closer to the eventual top than the bottom. With interest rates so low everywhere - I'm sure money will continue to flow into capital markets and property. It will pop eventually, and start the cycle all over again.

[skid]

yeh it was very quiet for a long time, but just another blip so traders can make a few bucks. As the last 10 or so corrections have shown us the recovery dosn't take long. The real one will come eventually but who know when, but it seems we're are tracking along a lot closer to the eventual top than the bottom. With interest rates so low everywhere - I'm sure money will continue to flow into capital markets and property. It will pop eventually, and start the cycle all over again.

This one is a result of ''fiscal tampering''(what the Fed MAY do)so it could be remedied by the right words from the Fed--but there is always the chance something like this can trigger other things in this broken system--Did anyone actually think the stock markets could carry on like this,with its record highs?...So if not now,..when do they raise interest rates? (there are many who dont see the dangers of a low interest system--It just increases the odds of a messy bursting of a bubble....call it the stock market...debt..or a number of other things,including the big banks.
This IMO was just waiting to happen.Whether it continues is of course, the question. Often times these things happen on a Friday,with the weekend to digest.
Another question...how far does it have to go before the ''bargain mindset'' gives way to fear and survival. (It aint here yet,thats for sure--If this is not the one--investors may get some bargains,If this is the one,it will suck in far more investors.

[Lewylewylewy]

The thing is, SPs can only do with bad news or the prospect of it. If the prospect of bad news never eventuates or was overrated, the lack of bad news from companies will mean there were bargains.

I guess what my sleepy head is trying to say, is that it companies continue to perform, anything else is just noise.

So the question is, do you think times ahead will cause companies on the NZX to underperform, or worse, struggle?

I think that's the difference. Lately we've seen so many events that caused fear of underperformance which never eventuated. Brexit, Greece, etc.

Obviously this is changing the confidence levels and style of trading on the NZX.

These are all obvious things. I guess the best thing to do is not to watch patterns in graphs, but to look for causes of (potential) change.

[winner69]

I reckon Monday 31st Oct. 1 week and bit before USA elections........)

I love Kuntsler's writings. A great commentator on the world affairs

Haven't linked any Cluster**** blog posts for a while - seeing you mentioned the US elections here goes. You will enjoy this one


http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/trending/#more-'

Link censored but seems to work - otherwise paste in browser and replace the **** with the f word. All clean stuff

Extract -

Imagine the scene following Hillary’s election. In order to salvage the last shred of its credibility, the Federal Reserve raises its overnight funds rate another quarter percent and crashes the last Potemkin semblance of a “recovering” economy, that is, the levitated stock markets. Tens of millions of retired individuals previously driven into them by zero interest rate policy are wiped out. Even more gravely, pension funds and insurance companies are destroyed, but not before their troubles trigger derivative contracts with big banks which then explode and expose the inability of counterparties to make good on their ends of the bet.

In a blind panic, the Federal Reserve reverses its policy in December, drops the Fed Funds interest rate back to 25 basis points and announces the grandest new round of “quantitative easing” (money printing) ever, while congress is coerced into voting for the greatest bailout of institutions the world has ever seen, along with a “one time” helicopter drop of a cool trillion dollars in the form of combined tax cuts and “shovel-ready infrastructure projects.” The media rejoices. The US Dollar tanks. Absolutely nobody wants US treasury bonds, bills, and notes. The pathetic remnant of the American middle class stares into the abyss. (If it looks hard enough, it sees the US government down there.)

[skid]

I love Kuntsler's writings. A great commentator on the world affairs

Haven't linked any Cluster**** blog posts for a while - seeing you mentioned the US elections here goes. You will enjoy this one


http://kunstler.com/cluster****-nation/trending/#more-'

Link censored but seems to work - otherwise paste in browser and replace the **** with the f word. All clean stuff

Extract -

Imagine the scene following Hillary’s election. In order to salvage the last shred of its credibility, the Federal Reserve raises its overnight funds rate another quarter percent and crashes the last Potemkin semblance of a “recovering” economy, that is, the levitated stock markets. Tens of millions of retired individuals previously driven into them by zero interest rate policy are wiped out. Even more gravely, pension funds and insurance companies are destroyed, but not before their troubles trigger derivative contracts with big banks which then explode and expose the inability of counterparties to make good on their ends of the bet.

In a blind panic, the Federal Reserve reverses its policy in December, drops the Fed Funds interest rate back to 25 basis points and announces the grandest new round of “quantitative easing” (money printing) ever, while congress is coerced into voting for the greatest bailout of institutions the world has ever seen, along with a “one time” helicopter drop of a cool trillion dollars in the form of combined tax cuts and “shovel-ready infrastructure projects.” The media rejoices. The US Dollar tanks. Absolutely nobody wants US treasury bonds, bills, and notes. The pathetic remnant of the American middle class stares into the abyss. (If it looks hard enough, it sees the US government down there.)

The further they go with the experiment ,the worse the outcome....case in point..the bit about Mom and Pop retires being driven into the share market for returns ,when normally they would have just saved their money in t deposits--Now they are caught in a system that cannot go on forever

[bull....]

big night tonight

[Hoop]

The further they go with the experiment ,the worse the outcome....case in point..the bit about Mom and Pop retires being driven into the share market for returns ,when normally they would have just saved their money in t deposits--Now they are caught in a system that cannot go on forever
My parents told me the common belief in NZ at that time ...kiddy wisdom..if you want to protect your wealth beware of instutions offering high interest rates...I guess that relates to higher than the market rates which in NZ would be ~2% atm...

So if my parents were still alive,would they still be saying ..to protect your wealth, stocks (or any other instrument for that matter) offering 8+% (interest or yield) should be avoided??...

Is this time any different...

In 2007 many thought that time was different.. Many NZ oldies (who obviously forgot about their kiddy wisdom speeches 40years previous) deposited all their hard earned saving into Finance companies term deposits that were offering interest rates about +2% higher than the market..the excuse was "we can't live on 8% interest so 10% from the finance companies helps us to survive"

Edit: inflation rates.. 1993 to 2016 are in a 0% - 5% trading range...Inflation 2007 was 2.5%

[littletramp]

I'm confused - when the shoe shine boys and taxi drivers tell you the share-market is in for a big correction is it time to get in or out?

[fungus pudding]

I'm confused - when the shoe shine boys and taxi drivers tell you the share-market is in for a big correction is it time to get in or out?

Definitely.

[Hoop]

Interesting...
This mornings NZ all index 1.5% drop......The banks are for once not leading the drop...so we can assume this drop (fueled from Europe/Wall St) isn't something financially sinister (yet?) ...It seems to be the start of another normal correction after a long strong rally...profit takers......The biggest ralliers are taking the biggest hits ..many are high yielders...

[winner69]

Interesting...
This mornings NZ all index 1.5% drop......The banks are for once not leading the drop...so we can assume this drop (fueled from Europe/Wall St) isn't something financially sinister (yet?) ...It seems to be the start of another normal correction after a long strong rally...profit takers......The biggest ralliers are taking the biggest hits ..many are high yielders...

It was down 1% on Friday as well. ....yep just a little downer in the ebb and flow of the NZX as it heads to 8000

[winner69]

Might qualify for a Black Monday

No worries though - just as Mark Knopfler said 'there's always sunshine after rain / a good Tuesday always follows a bad Monday / why worry'

From twitterland


David Ingles‏
@DavidInglesTV So it's a not a normal day. In NZ, it's a 4-standard-deviations kind of sell-off; happened only 3x the last 6 yrs

[Snow Leopard]

A day to give the Buy button a holiday.

Mind you I am out-performing the markets, down only about 1.1% at present

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[fungus pudding]

A day to give the Buy button a holiday.

Mind you I am out-performing the markets, down only about 1.1% at present

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Or maybe it's time to give the buy button a strenuous workout.

[arc]

SO with the great American election dawning....soon...( two more months of endless words) what are the bets for a downturn, .
Or will we see the flight of $A in to something/somewhere else..
neither option looks "stable"
?

[Hoop]

Or maybe it's time to give the buy button a strenuous workout.
Naughty Naughty...catchee falling knife losee fingees

[Leftfield]

Or maybe it's time to give the buy button a strenuous workout.

IMO Patience is a virtue... early days yet. Watch the charts closely.

[Beagle]

Strange world we live in isn't it. Hillary Clinton gets heat stroke and Janet Yellen wavers on interest rates and suddenly the sky is falling.

[Raz]

Strange world we live in isn't it. Hillary Clinton gets heat stroke and Janet Yellen wavers on interest rates and suddenly the sky is falling.

End result makes for a traders paradise..

[percy]

Strange world we live in isn't it. Hillary Clinton gets heat stroke and Janet Yellen wavers on interest rates and suddenly the sky is falling.

With "the sky is falling" I trust no one is holding any airline shares.
Most probably the first affected by the falling sky.!

[winner69]

With "the sky is falling" I trust no one is holding any airline shares.
Most probably the first affected by the falling sky.!

and if the cloud falls with it wouldn't want to be the likes of Xero either

[drcjp]

Strange world we live in isn't it. Hillary Clinton gets heat stroke and Janet Yellen wavers on interest rates and suddenly the sky is falling.

Whatever she's got it ain't heatstroke . She was twitching like a TIA patient off their warfarin. She is NOT well.

[Raz]

Whatever she's got it ain't heatstroke . She was twitching like a TIA patient off their warfarin. She is NOT well.

Your the second person to say that ....hmmm

[vin]

That's the nail in the coffin for her election campaign I would think.

[Baa_Baa]

With "the sky is falling" I trust no one is holding any airline shares.
Most probably the first affected by the falling sky.!

AIR was certainly af .. afff ... affected, but it certainly wasn't the worst affected, today, some got gutted big time, mainly small caps. AIR might have been the worst blue-chip affected though, except maybe MHI if that's a blue-chip. Ugly day all round really.

Watching futures and overnight, should tell the story for tomorrow. Bounce or follow through down?

[Baa_Baa]

That's the nail in the coffin for her election campaign I would think.

Heaven forbid it lets the Trump in. OMG, watch the markets collapse if that happens.

[Jantar]

Watch them collapse if Clinton gets in as well. Those two had to be the worst pair of all the presidential hopefuls.

[winner69]

Watch them collapse if Clinton gets in as well. Those two had to be the worst pair of all the presidential hopefuls.
T
Popular belief is - if Trump wins watch the markets collapse, if Clinton wins watch the USA collapse.

But Hilary has already collapsed

[winner69]

They gave Janet a good old telling off and she has sorted out her team so all back on track. Markets heading to new highs before the election.

Janet needs to make sure her team keeps to the script.

[percy]

Thank you for the "one day sale" Mr.Market.
I missed getting all the shares I wanted in a company I was buying on Friday.
Came home from a busy day in North Canterbury to find the balance of my order had been filled.
Must say North Canterbury looked splendid.A very pleasant trip.And book sales were good too.!!

[blobbles]

Heaven forbid it lets the Trump in. OMG, watch the markets collapse if that happens.

I suspect the democrats would sub in Bernie if Clinton withdraws for medical reasons, he polls much better against Trump...

[minimoke]

and if the cloud falls with it wouldn't want to be the likes of Xero either

And faith being shown in TGH

[skid]

So, a few words from members of the Fed and alls well---They are trapped in a low interest nightmare,with the inevitable put off for now,until some catayist comes along that is bigger than a mutterance from the fed---US elections??...(now thats getting scarey)

Why Friday(in the US)was a concern if you read between the lines....

Quote ----- A day like Friday makes institutions cringe. Most institutions diversify between stocks and bonds. Some throw in for protection reasons some gold, oil and commodities. The theory is that all of them should not go down at the same time. Friday, as the chart shows, they all went down simultaneously. When institutions cringe, the only way for them to become more defensive is to sell to raise more cash. This exasperates the selling.

This time it was fixable..all the Fed had to do was say a few words

[winner69]

And faith being shown in TGH

Good one minimoke

[JBmurc]

I suspect the democrats would sub in Bernie if Clinton withdraws for medical reasons, he polls much better against Trump...

Bernie is for main street not Wall street like Clinton ...think it will be another puppet

[janner]

The top comment at present is she has Parkinson's..

How about Biden stepping in ???

A real warmonger.. Which way the market then ??

[blackcap]

looking at the odds, I think Biden is the clear choice to sub in if Hillary does not make it.

[JBmurc]

looking at the odds, I think Biden is the clear choice to sub in if Hillary does not make it.

Yes I would agree ....more of the same..... what a waste of money

[janner]

Yes I would agree ....more of the same..... what a waste of money


Biden and son have large interests in Eastern Ukraine .. Donetsk and Lugansk.

Oil. Gas.. Putin will not see eye to eye with him as President.

[Raz]

Biden and son have large interests in Eastern Ukraine .. Donetsk and Lugansk.

Oil. Gas.. Putin will not see eye to eye with him as President.

More empire crap, one thing i like about Donald, (yes I found something) is he tends to want to back off some of the worst intervention and meddling the great USA Empire has created...this anti Russian approach over there is crazy.

[JBmurc]

More empire crap, one thing i like about Donald, (yes I found something) is he tends to want to back off some of the worst intervention and meddling the great USA Empire has created...this anti Russian approach over there is crazy.

you must be paid by putin ....LOL

[Raz]

you must be paid by putin ....LOL

haha I wish, another revenue line would always be handy.

[bull....]

nzx bit sad today, looks like going lower

[percy]

Can't comment on the NZX, but of the NZ stocks I watch 11 are up,7 are down, and 5 are unchanged.
Just another day.

[minimoke]

Good one minimokeglad someone got it!

[bull....]

us hit the bottom of the trading range yesterday reversed today bearish im watching 17800 , 2070

[skid]

The Fed has spoken (and no one believed them,...for very long)----ever get the feeling the market is ready for a correction?

[bull....]

nzx open air to 7000 odd

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.barrons.com/articles/worried-the-market-is-too-calm-bring-on-the-noise-1473485492

[janner]

http://www.barrons.com/articles/worried-the-market-is-too-calm-bring-on-the-noise-1473485492

Sorry .. I do not understand ..

Maybe my PC.. Maybe I did not receive all content.. Maybe I am dumb..

Could you please expand on that ??

Do appreciate your postings.

[skid]

Sorry .. I do not understand ..

Maybe my PC.. Maybe I did not receive all content.. Maybe I am dumb..

Could you please expand on that ??

Do appreciate your postings.

Marketwinner must have a subscription--maybe he could tell us ----Judging by the comments it may not be worth the trouble.

Meanwhile I think its pretty much a long shot the Fed will grow a pair and raise interest rates next week--not easy to get off this train ,once it gets going--even though at some stage it will become a runaway freight train.

[Jantar]

Marketwinner must have a subscription--maybe he could tell us ----Judging by the comments it may not be worth the trouble.

Meanwhile I think its pretty much a long shot the Fed will grow a pair and raise interest rates next week--not easy to get off this train ,once it gets going--even though at some stage it will become a runaway freight train.
And if the fed did raise interest rates that would cause a drop in $NZ relative to US and in turn would help companies like SCL and SEK. It would even make NZ more attractive to tourists and give AIR another boost. So would not be all bad.

[skid]

And if the fed did raise interest rates that would cause a drop in $NZ relative to US and in turn would help companies like SCL and SEK. It would even make NZ more attractive to tourists and give AIR another boost. So would not be all bad.

It would be great if it was that simple--If it caused(and there would be a good chance) a significant drop in world stock markets--that would surly rub off on NZ shares---Welcome to glabalization

[Hoop]

And if the fed did raise interest rates that would cause a drop in $NZ relative to US and in turn would help companies like SCL and SEK. It would even make NZ more attractive to tourists and give AIR another boost. So would not be all bad.

hmmm...Be careful what you wish...... I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001 but I can remember the exporter complaining they wanted the $ lower again....Importers were bitching and disappearing leaving less consumer selection but most couldn't afford to buy anything anyway..heaps of tradies had no work = no mon no fun....:pNZ stockmarket turned into a big bear.. Our Ozzie neighbor got filled up with Kiwis....and visions of Banana Republic from the 1980's era got revisited......the beginning of AIRNZ slide to bankruptcy

Edit: this was one year before 9/11 so no excuses please;)

[macduffy]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

;)

[skid]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

;)

It means there are lots of different ways to suffer:eek2:

[Jantar]

hmmm...Be careful what you wish...... ...
Not that I wish, as I also hold HLG and STU which would not do well with a lower dollar.

[Valuegrowth]

According to this article, conditions today are different from last summer, and a repeat of last August’s swoon probably can be avoided. We have to wait and see. With all these noises still there are opportunities in global markets.
Sorry .. I do not understand ..

Maybe my PC.. Maybe I did not receive all content.. Maybe I am dumb..

Could you please expand on that ??

Do appreciate your postings.

[neopoleII]

""I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001""

i remember trying to sell a lifestyle back then (north facing bombay hills with auckland views) and even advertised overseas with no results.
sold the block at a depressed price.... and lost money.
fast forward to today...... the property is worth more than everything that i have ever made in my life.
different times back then...... and lots of people were watching the dollars and expenditure.

in my case i was cash flush back then but had a "high maintenance partner" that wanted horse land - not prime views.
hard lesson .... but i survived and have a priceless wife now........ living in a cardboard box.
"best things in life are........"

[janner]

""I can't remember NZ being overrun by hoards of tourists when our NZ$ hit US$0.40 back in 2001""

i remember trying to sell a lifestyle back then (north facing bombay hills with auckland views) and even advertised overseas with no results.
sold the block at a depressed price.... and lost money.
fast forward to today...... the property is worth more than everything that i have ever made in my life.
different times back then...... and lots of people were watching the dollars and expenditure.

in my case i was cash flush back then but had a "high maintenance partner" that wanted horse land - not prime views.
hard lesson .... but i survived and have a priceless wife now........ living in a cardboard box.
"best things in life are........"

Cardboard Box.... LUXURY !!!...

[Hoop]

As the saying goes:

History doesn't repeat - it rhymes.

Whatever that means!

;)
Scary predictions. :ohmy: Perfect for a Black Monday. :(

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/83630/john-mauldin-delves-further-problems-he-says-were-caused-economic-academic

Another good read (http://seekingalpha.com/article/4006734-history-bubbles?ifp=0)

[Mush]

Long time reader, first time Poster.

My take on current market conditions:
NZX has becoming increasingly correlated with global movements in the past few years. Now over half of NZ stocks have foreign ownership (up from 29% odd 2012). Saw the effects of the market momentarily re-pricing a higher chance of a fed hike in Sept last Friday (NZX down 2.5% on Monday, along with other major global indices being the most recent example). So we are vulnerable for capital flight in times of stress.
Markets are on FED watch at the moment, IMO it seems like they are looking for any excuse NOT to hike and are worried about the effects divergent monetary policy will have on already fragile international monetary conditions.

Attached:
A Graph showing NZD/USD and the NZX50 performance this year. Noting the relative correlation between the two.
To me, this helps explain why the NZD has been stubbornly bid despite the RBNZ's easing cycle (foreign yield hungry flows).
NZX50 up around 16% YTD, to me valuations continue to be stretched as equity risk premiums are compressed (willing to take lower yield for same risk profile), rather than fundamental earnings growth.


8316

Should be some interesting times between now and the end of the year.

Mush

[Hoop]

Long time reader, first time Poster.

My take on current market conditions:
NZX has becoming increasingly correlated with global movements in the past few years. Now over half of NZ stocks have foreign ownership (up from 29% odd 2012). Saw the effects of the market momentarily re-pricing a higher chance of a fed hike in Sept last Friday (NZX down 2.5% on Monday, along with other major global indices being the most recent example). So we are vulnerable for capital flight in times of stress.
Markets are on FED watch at the moment, IMO it seems like they are looking for any excuse NOT to hike and are worried about the effects divergent monetary policy will have on already fragile international monetary conditions.

Attached:
A Graph showing NZD/USD and the NZX50 performance this year. Noting the relative correlation between the two.
To me, this helps explain why the NZD has been stubbornly bid despite the RBNZ's easing cycle (foreign yield hungry flows).
NZX50 up around 16% YTD, to me valuations continue to be stretched as equity risk premiums are compressed (willing to take lower yield for same risk profile), rather than fundamental earnings growth.


8313

Should be some interesting times between now and the end of the year.

Mush

Welcome Mush....I can't open up your attachment...is it you or me:mellow:

[Mush]

Long time reader, first time Poster.

My take on current market conditions:
NZX has becoming increasingly correlated with global movements in the past few years. Now over half of NZ stocks have foreign ownership (up from 29% odd 2012). Saw the effects of the market momentarily re-pricing a higher chance of a fed hike in Sept last Friday (NZX down 2.5% on Monday, along with other major global indices being the most recent example). So we are vulnerable for capital flight in times of stress.
Markets are on FED watch at the moment, IMO it seems like they are looking for any excuse NOT to hike and are worried about the effects divergent monetary policy will have on already fragile international monetary conditions.

Attached:
A Graph showing NZD/USD and the NZX50 performance this year. Noting the relative correlation between the two.
To me, this helps explain why the NZD has been stubbornly bid despite the RBNZ's easing cycle (foreign yield hungry flows).
NZX50 up around 16% YTD, to me valuations continue to be stretched as equity risk premiums are compressed (willing to take lower yield for same risk profile), rather than fundamental earnings growth.


8316

Should be some interesting times between now and the end of the year.

Mush

Oops, wrong file format methinks. Edited now, try that!

[skid]

I guess most would agree that the fed wont hike rates just before an election,but as GFs article states,they are caught in a fools game--sooner or later they will have to suck it up and disregard the markets hissey fits---could be a dark Christmas

Otherwise they may try to keep playing the monetary game until some outside catylist helps things along---

bubbles pop--that is their nature


In terms of what we are being fed by the Fed and other economic talking heads,a quote comes to mind

''If you want to know if a man is honest.........ask him

If he says yes, You know he's lying''

[Valuegrowth]

At the moment NZD has some support. Its major down trend should begin from 2017 onwards. Until then it may have some volatility as well. In addition, don’t ignore currency cycle as well. Fortunately, we didn’t see black Monday today. Instead we should see strong demand for stocks today specially for selected tech and food stocks globally.

[Hectorplains]

In terms of what we are being fed by the Fed and other economic talking heads,a quote comes to mind

''If you want to know if a man is honest.........ask him

If he says yes, You know he's lying''

What if he answers that he's a liar but in this instance he's telling the truth?

[bull....]

big week, boj and fed actually big rest yr us elections, dec be careful rest year

[bull....]

positioned for a hike, otherwise what was all the rhetoric about the other week

[skid]

positioned for a hike, otherwise what was all the rhetoric about the other week

Boy..that would be a blindside! That last drop was very unusual in that everything tanked..even defensive stuff.

I dont think alot realize that sooner or later the piper will have to be paid..(but just before an election?)

[xafalcon]

IMO the NZ market is more pumped than most others due to the high proportion of yield stocks. So I suggest it has further to fall then other markets whenever the FED raises their benchmark rate. I am 100% out, have been since April. I believe the NZX is currently in the process of transitioning into a bear market, but that is simply my opinion. I see the possibility/probability of the Don poling above Hilary as the next imminent catalyst for the VIX index to rise and share markets to fall, even though the Don may be seen as more pro-business. If he gets elected, although unlikely, I think lots of money would be repatriated from foreign investments including NZX. And once the exodus begins, investors behave like sheep rather than rational individuals. Company fundamentals mean absolutely nothing

I put recent hawkish FED comments down to them increasing market preparation for a rise, not signalling that the increase is about to happen. Very unlikely they would act so close before a Presidential election

[Mush]

IMO the NZ market is more pumped than most others due to the high proportion of yield stocks. So I suggest it has further to fall then other markets whenever the FED raises their benchmark rate. I am 100% out, have been since April. I believe the NZX is currently in the process of transitioning into a bear market, but that is simply my opinion. I see the possibility/probability of the Don poling above Hilary as the next imminent catalyst for the VIX index to rise and share markets to fall, even though the Don may be seen as more pro-business. If he gets elected, although unlikely, I think lots of money would be repatriated from foreign investments including NZX. And once the exodus begins, investors behave like sheep rather than rational individuals. Company fundamentals mean absolutely nothing

I put recent hawkish FED comments down to them increasing market preparation for a rise, not signalling that the increase is about to happen. Very unlikely they would act so close before a Presidential election

I agree, agree and agree. Also just recently sold my holdings. Seeing a -2.5% day on the NZX solely due to hawkishness from FED speakers was an eye opener. How bad will the exodus be when they do hike? (Because it's only a matter of time)

You're right about recent FED hawkishness, IMO they wont go before the election in November, but will signal to the markets they will go in December. Read yesterday that out of the last 80 or so FED moves, the market has been pricing 80-100% chance of the move pre-meeting, so tomorrow, for me, is off the cards with only 20% priced in.

[bull....]

I agree, agree and agree. Also just recently sold my holdings. Seeing a -2.5% day on the NZX solely due to hawkishness from FED speakers was an eye opener. How bad will the exodus be when they do hike? (Because it's only a matter of time)

You're right about recent FED hawkishness, IMO they wont go before the election in November, but will signal to the markets they will go in December. Read yesterday that out of the last 80 or so FED moves, the market has been pricing 80-100% chance of the move pre-meeting, so tomorrow, for me, is off the cards with only 20% priced in.

but also they have hiked plenty of times when the economic data has been weak looking past to the big picture

[Mush]

but also they have hiked plenty of times when the economic data has been weak looking past to the big picture

Agreed, however in those instances the market was expecting a move regardless of economic data. In the case of tomorrow the market isn't expecting a hike, hence the widely held view that they wont move. They want to avoid adding to volatility by shocking markets.

Probabilities shown below with almost 60% priced in by Dec meeting.

8319

[bull....]

IMO the NZ market is more pumped than most others due to the high proportion of yield stocks. So I suggest it has further to fall then other markets whenever the FED raises their benchmark rate. I am 100% out, have been since April. I believe the NZX is currently in the process of transitioning into a bear market, but that is simply my opinion. I see the possibility/probability of the Don poling above Hilary as the next imminent catalyst for the VIX index to rise and share markets to fall, even though the Don may be seen as more pro-business. If he gets elected, although unlikely, I think lots of money would be repatriated from foreign investments including NZX. And once the exodus begins, investors behave like sheep rather than rational individuals. Company fundamentals mean absolutely nothing

I put recent hawkish FED comments down to them increasing market preparation for a rise, not signalling that the increase is about to happen. Very unlikely they would act so close before a Presidential election

agree with a lot of things you say but the fed has been talking hawkish for ages and still havnt had the guts to pull the trigger 1/4 pt means jack really but at least they will get some credibilty back

[bull....]

Agreed, however in those instances the market was expecting a move regardless of economic data. In the case of tomorrow the market isn't expecting a hike, hence the widely held view that they wont move. They want to avoid adding to volatility by shocking markets.

Probabilities shown below with almost 60% priced in by Dec meeting.

8319

your probably right the markets are the feds master

[skid]

your probably right the markets are the feds master

I believe there is a train coming from both directions--theres the obvious market jolt when they do rise--and on the other side they are seeing the diminishing results that the QEs and now easy money are actually having in terms of boosting the economy- They wont have much of a choice but to start the withdrawals,even with not great results that quarter.
Somewhere down the line,we,or our sons, will be better off.

Disc.-Im out as well (shares) but do have Gold which will get walloped by an interest rate rise,but possibly will kick in if markets fall alot.

[Baa_Baa]

At times you'd think it's all about the US Fed and their interest rates, but apparently lots of the CB's are in trouble and quite a few sovereign states as well, even some of the largest. http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/84477678/fear-that-china-debt-bubble-will-burst

[drcjp]

I believe the poet Denis Glover described current market behaviour very well when he wrote;

"Little for the many,
much for the some,
everybody's biting,
everybodies bum".

[janner]

I believe the poet Denis Glover described current market behaviour very well when he wrote;

"Little for the many,
much for the some,
everybody's biting,
everybodies bum".

Quardle oodle ardle wardle doodle..

Just about sums up the market these days :-)))))

[Sgt Pepper]

"Get ready for the mother of all stock market corrections once central banks cease their money printing"

Headline of an analysis in the latest Telegraph.

[see weed]

"Get ready for the mother of all stock market corrections once central banks cease their money printing"

Headline of an analysis in the latest Telegraph.
It is ok, I had a prayer this morning, everything should be all right for a while.

[bull....]

no rate increase lol reckon they missed the boat this yr cant see a rate increase in dec esp if trump wins

[fiasco]

It is ok, I had a prayer this morning, everything should be all right for a while.

Im starting to believe you're cryptic see weed!

[skid]

It is ok, I had a prayer this morning, everything should be all right for a while.

You forgot to include AIR.....maybe today:)

[skid]

no rate increase lol reckon they missed the boat this yr cant see a rate increase in dec esp if trump wins

Ive been reading a bit on that.The consensus is he would have far less influence than most think--Even some in his own party(rep.) are not with him on many things.(thank goodness for checks and balances)...(still scary though)

[Mush]

Looking like the Democrats are going to control the senate anyway. So agreed skid, he would have limited influence. However I believe his plans for a big debt fueled fiscal spend is exactly what their economy needs to stimulate some AD.

BOJ disappointed, whilst FED was inline with expectations. Still left a December hike very much on the table and noted there are "no new risks to economic outlook"

[BlackCross]

Lord Rothschild (who has plenty of skin in the game).

The six months under review have seen centralbankers continuing what is surely the greatestexperiment in monetary policy in the history of theworld. We are therefore in uncharted waters and it isimpossible to predict the unintended consequencesof very low interest rates, with some 30% of globalgovernment debt at negative yields, combined withquantitative easing on a massive scale. To date, atleast in stock market terms, the policy has beensuccessful with markets near their highs, whilevolatility on the whole has remained low. Nearly allclasses of investment have been boosted by therising monetary tide. Meanwhile, growth remainsanaemic, with weak demand and deflation in manyparts of the developed world.Many of the risks which I underlined in my 2015statement remain; indeed the geo-political situationhas deteriorated with the UK having voted to leavethe European Union, the presidential election in theUS in November is likely to be unusually fraught,while the situation in China remains opaque and theslowing down of economic growth will surely lead toproblems. Conflict in the Middle East continues and isunlikely to be resolved for many years. We havealready felt the consequences of this in France,Germany and the USA in terrorist attacks.In times like these, preservation of capital in realterms continues to be as important an objective asany in the management of your Company’s assets. Inrespect of your Company’s asset allocation, on quotedequities we have reduced our exposure from 55% to44%. Our Sterling exposure was significantly reducedover the period to 34%, and currently stands atapproximately 25%. We increased gold and preciousmetals to 8% by the end of June. We also increasedour allocation to absolute return and credit, whichdelivered positive returns over the period, benefitingfrom a number of special situations. Within thiscategory our new association with Eisler Capital hadan encouraging start. We expect this part of theportfolio to be an increasingly important contributor tooverall returns.On currencies, we reduced our exposure to Sterling inanticipation of Brexit and the generally unsettled UKpolitical environment. Our significant US Dollarposition has now been somewhat reduced as,following the Dollar’s rise, we saw interestingopportunities in other currencies as well as gold, thelatter reflecting our concerns about monetary policyand ever declining real yields.

http://www.ritcap.com/sites/default/files/240786%20RIT%20RA%20Interim%202016%20FINAL.pdf

[janner]

" Lord Rothschild (who has plenty of skin in the game). "

He certainly has. However one must question such a poorly put together report.

[BlackCross]

" Lord Rothschild (who has plenty of skin in the game). "

He certainly has. However one must question such a poorly put together report.

If it's the joined together words (caused by cut'n paste) that bother you then you could just click on the link and read the original .pdf.:)

[BlackPeter]

Nothing new here ... times are always good or bad (depending on your point of view), risks are low or high (as they always are) and markets are going up (and less frequently down) and from time to time they do crash.

Doomsday prophets are like broken watches, just less reliable. They are normally wrong, but whenever the next crash happens to come by they have their moment ... and afterwards they need to stand through a long and boring uptrend.

[janner]

If it's the joined together words (caused by cut'n paste) that bother you then you could just click on the link and read the original .pdf.:)

Thanks.. it just did not gel :-)))

[Baa_Baa]

Nothing new here ... times are always good or bad (depending on your point of view), risks are low or high (as they always are) and markets are going up (and less frequently down) and from time to time they do crash.

Doomsday prophets are like broken watches, just less reliable. They are normally wrong, but whenever the next crash happens to come by they have their moment ... and afterwards they need to stand through a long and boring uptrend.

Are you referring to the Rothschild report that @BlackCross posted?