Black Monday

[workingdad]

Here's the chart (monthly), you can see that NZX50 is still well above the steep rising trend line, about 6200 which is also on the very long 20 month MA (approximates to a 400 day MA). A breakdown if it happened would still not bugger up the NZX bull trend, though it would certainly be hurtful for many blue chip shares. The bull breakdown (if it happened, and a BIG IF) is the trend line support around 4400 that converges on the 7 year bull market support at the peak of 2007 and the rising support trend line from the 2008 lows. If it got to there and broke down, well, that would be a disaster ... but that's a long way from where we are now. Just play it by ear, NZX has way more room to move before it's doom and gloom time, than almost every other international share market index.

I think the thing that these long charts show if nothing else, bearing in mind it is MONTHLY, is that that sharemarket declines happen slowly, they take many months or even years to unfold (just like the rises). One day called Brexit is not a fatal blow, it's a blip. Just watch and be patient for the follow though, if it happens.
8125

Well that monthly chart sure is an impressive bull market alright. The last month is quite the drop though and looking at the last few weeks trading half of it was before Fridays Brexit decline. Not making any predictions of doom and gloom from a short term look at things but as you say - watch and be patient.

Hoop mentions it broke a support on the 14th - is this perhaps what I was looking at with regard to the 50 day MA?

If I was in the UK and had investments in international markets like the NZX and others I would be thinking to myself with the 8% drop in the value of the pound and market uncertainty what a great time to realise those gains further boosted overnight with a net 5% gain and stuff my money into a mattress, if the pound recovers the money can be used again to buy the same stocks for less and if the global economy hits further turbulence it would prove to have been a good time to pull out - not very often one gets the opportunity of a win-win scenario like that.

[workingdad]

Black Cap...The daily chart broke an important support on the 14th June as predicted by the Bollinger Bands..Long term The NZX50 cap index monthly chart has to fall about another 15% to reach the bull/bear support..that's a lot of room..

Very long term...Needs about 30% drop to break the primary trend.

Mind you this is a little pointless for an investor wanting to preserve his/her assets

The problem with long term analysis is who want's to give back 30% of your capital to the market just to witness whether the NZX stays in a long term uptrend..what happens if it breaks its primary uptrend?

See my Post #1390 page 93 NZ50 good news thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6952-NZSX50-Good-News!/page93) chart

Below is a table say you lose 30% you need the market to rise 43% to get back to breakeven.....thats why you see many articles saying you should stop out at 10%..
A 9 month bear market cycle correcting about 40 to 50% sounds OK until you look at the amount you need as a hold and holder to get back to breakeven..it usually takes years...



Percentage Loss

Percent Rise To Breakeven



10%

11%



15%

18%



20%

25%



25%

33%



30%

43%



35%

54%



40%

67%



45%

82%



50%

100%





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Great example of the higher high and the headroom before technically being a bear thanks Hoop.

Would it need to go lower than the march 16 or October 15 lows to be a 'lower low'?

[Hoop]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf)

[Bjauck]

...
If I was in the UK and had investments in international markets like the NZX and others I would be thinking to myself with the 8% drop in the value of the pound and market uncertainty what a great time to realise those gains further boosted overnight with a net 5% gain and stuff my money into a mattress, if the pound recovers the money can be used again to buy the same stocks for less and if the global economy hits further turbulence it would prove to have been a good time to pull out - not very often one gets the opportunity of a win-win scenario like that.
Trump, who is in Scotland at them moment, has been enjoying the drop in the pound. Guess what, he was one of the biggest supporters of a Brexit! Have the disaffected English working class been trussed up with vague promises and delivered to the right-wing demagogues?

[Bjauck]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf) Unread or ignored by many of the disaffected English working class and dismissed as fear mongering by the Brexit side :(

[Baa_Baa]

Is that a symptom of the NZX being a Gross index whilst the other markets are Capital indexes?

Monthly NZX50 Capital Index chart shows that the index has only in the past three months recovered above the highs prior to the GFC! So yes the chart is different without those dividends factored in. Nevertheless, the Capital index chart isn't much different from the Gross index chart in illustrating the very steep bull/bear trend from July 2012 and the long term trend from March 2009. The real issue with the Capital chart is that few people have a reference point for the numbers, for example NZX50 Capital index is 2,064 now. Means nothing to most people.

8126

Here's another view using the NZX10 Capital index. The value of this is that it concentrates the view on to the top 10 shares that have the most value exposure. Anyway, even without all the other shares, the NZX10 Capital Index daily chart illustrates some of the points Hoop made before about breakdowns, supports and trend lines.

8127

So back to what I think the point is, these macro index views give a sense of the overall market sentiment, but ones analysis should focus on what individual shares we own, or want to own.

[bull....]

my main takes going forward are -

- Watching for EU reaction will they be nasty and punish the UK
- How will the EU contain further political contagion
- How will multi - national business react will they stay or leave probably depends on the first point
- UK will enter recession as business and consumers stop spending due to uncertainty
- If multi - nationals decide too leave the UK the UK will head for a depression as money will depart the UK
- Will Scotland and Ireland leave the UK to join the EU
- Will the UK devision between remain and leave turn nasty once ramifications become apparent and will young remain people leave in droves the UK if multi - nationals start to leave and unemployment balloons.
- UK will have less bargaining power in negiotiations now as they are a smaller player not part of a huge trading block being the EU.

I don't think its a global problem unless the EU implodes and Monday might only bring selling related to people who have had time to consider there losses over the weekend, irrational selling now in my opinion is silly when you consider it will take a long time for ramifications to play out.

dow jones was in a channel as mentioned on my previous post a while back 18000 - 17500 it hit top on Friday after hrs so smart people sold there and now it is just under support at 17400 so Monday will look at will it bounce back into range on irrational price action Friday ( as really UK is hardly of significance to the US economically ) or will it break down and head to 17000 target.

In years to come I think people will look back and say it was just another nail in the coffin of a once great power who is nothing more than a tiny island now of the coast of Europe.

[JBmurc]

The EU was never properly conceived in the first place; it's not a responsive political body it's an administrative body which colossal discretion and which issues directives that member nations must comply with, and there aren't sufficient controls over that. Also they haven't got proper flexibility to manage economic crises. As we have seen.

The idea 27 different cultures/countries could be ruled as one is only ever going be disappointed ...It should have simply remained a block of trading partners ..

Also I understand there is a two-year timetable for negotiations on withdrawal...FEAR is in control not sense currently ...the UK voted to take back it democracy ..yes they will be punished ... was never going be easy road..

[workingdad]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf)

Not many I would imagine after skimming through myself.

So many good quotes and graphs in there. Too much to simply put into a post but that graph comparing GDP growth and uncertainty was an eye opener. Also, it would seem in even the best of the possible scenarios outlined the UK is going to be in recession, how will this impact on an international aspect? Just wondering if the potential for this to be a tipping point is an actual possibility.

Here's a question I cant answer and wonder if someone knows. The FTSE went down sharply on open and recovered quite well to finish at a point higher than what I would have though was expected. The central bank said 240 billion to throw around for stability - did this statement on its own shore up the FTSE or was there an intervention? If they did intervene would it have to be made public?

[workingdad]

my main takes going forward are -

- Watching for EU reaction will they be nasty and punish the UK I think nasty, they need to set a precedent for others thinking of leaving the EU, if they make it easy it wont hep the EUs own interests in the long run, they don't even want to wait until October to start the process - this came out from the leaders and their meeting in Berlin and they made that clear so perhaps the first shot from the EU is being fired. The only thing is the brits have the trump card as they are the only ones that can invoke article 50.
- How will the EU contain further political contagion
- How will multi - national business react will they stay or leave probably depends on the first point With years of uncertainty ahead my bet is on the latter
- UK will enter recession as business and consumers stop spending due to uncertainty
- If multi - nationals decide too leave the UK the UK will head for a depression as money will depart the UK
- Will Scotland and Ireland leave the UK to join the EU I get the sense that's a definite possibility
- Will the UK devision between remain and leave turn nasty once ramifications become apparent and will young remain people leave in droves the UK if multi - nationals start to leave and unemployment balloons.
- UK will have less bargaining power in negiotiations now as they are a smaller player not part of a huge trading block being the EU.

I don't think its a global problem unless the EU implodes and Monday might only bring selling related to people who have had time to consider there losses over the weekend, irrational selling now in my opinion is silly when you consider it will take a long time for ramifications to play out.

dow jones was in a channel as mentioned on my previous post a while back 18000 - 17500 it hit top on Friday after hrs so smart people sold there and now it is just under support at 17400 so Monday will look at will it bounce back into range on irrational price action Friday ( as really UK is hardly of significance to the US economically ) or will it break down and head to 17000 target.

In years to come I think people will look back and say it was just another nail in the coffin of a once great power who is nothing more than a tiny island now of the coast of Europe.

Its an interesting process to watch unfold but one thing for sure, there are a lot of 'experts' commentary out there that have vastly different opinions on how it will play out. EDIT: not aimed at the forum members - spent a bit of time with CNN on in the background this weekend

[BlackPeter]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf)

Just looking at the summary - lots of (and quite sobering) reading ... yes, pity the Brits didn't bother to read it before they made their decision.

[Bjauck]

...
Also I understand there is a two-year timetable for negotiations on withdrawal...FEAR is in control not sense currently ...the UK voted to take back it democracy ..yes they will be punished ... was never going be easy road..
1. Most agree that two years is probably not going to be long enough for negotiations. Even if negotiations are incomplete after the 2 year period, the UK is ejected no matter what. In addition, EU and national leaders have said that negotiations for a UK-EU trade deal will only begin AFTER the UK is outside the EU.
2. Brexiteers have made a leap into the unknown for who knows how long.
3. Brexit campaigners have already backtracked on major promises made by many of them in relation to immigration and increased funding for health services. A duped electorate?

Less than 50% of the registered electorate voted for a Brexit. Surely Brexit has not passed the legitimacy hurdle for a major constitutional, legal and economic change. It is not a binding referendum anyway and the PM who promised to respect it, has resigned and is just a caretaker! The Brexiteers wanted the UK parliament to be sovereign, well this is a time for a parliamentary vote on Brexit. In any case, UKIPs Farage himself said previously that if the Leave side lost by a close margin, that there should be a second referendum.

[BlackPeter]

2 Links to analysis done by Her Majesty's Treasury..Documents released May 2016..Grim reading..I wonder how many Leave voters read this???

HM Treasury analysis : The long term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives (PDF 201 pages) (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/517415/treasury_analysis_economic_impact_of_eu_membership _web.pdf)

HM Treasury analysis : The immediate economic impact of leaving the EU (PDF 90 pages)

(https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact _of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf)

Great stuff - hoop, just need to share this table ... it basically says all:

8128

Obviously early days, but if we just look at the fall of the pound it appears the crown analysts had a quite accurate crystal ball ... would think that the English end up somewhere between the 2 scenarios.

Obviously - too late for the Brits to change their decision (though who knows, maybe they kick Boris and Co into their more private parts ... and turn back to the EU?), but not too late for us to use this info to guide future investment decisions!

On the bright side ... you might be correct, hoop - if we look at this analysis than the Brits did find a remedy against both deflation as well as against expensive real estate: Both scenarios predict in the UK a nice inflationary push on the consumer side ... combined with falling house prices. Sounds like paradise ...

[winner69]

Has Cameron well and truly stuffed Boris and his mates? It's up to new PM to trigger this Article 50 seeing Cameron won't.

Boris looking like a man who does not want to be PM. Probably a very short term job if he does and long term political aspirations stuffed.

I would not be surprised if the Tories went for somebody like Theresa May as PM who will say its all too hard and not trigger this Article 50 - a glorious backdown.

What a mess but intriguing

[Bjauck]

...
I would not be surprised if the Tories went for somebody like Theresa May as PM who will say its all too hard and not trigger this Article 50 - a glorious backdown.
What a mess but intriguing
A possible scenario, given less than 50% of the electorate actually voted for the Brexit. A parliamentary vote another possibility? However given Cameron's previous statement to respect the result of the referendum, it would not go down well with the Brexiteers, especially the UKIP supporters.

[winner69]

A possible scenario, given less than 50% of the electorate actually voted for the Brexit. A parliamentary vote another possibility? However given Cameron's previous statement to respect the result of the referendum, it would not go down well with the Brexiteers, especially the UKIP supporters.

Doesn't really matter what was said during the referendum - mostly lies anyway, esp from the leave side.

In an obscure sort of way Britain could be holding a a few aces if they only threaten to follow through and leave and then seek EU reforms.

EU looking a bitbp stuffed eh

[ratkin]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale

It is fairly difficult to understand how the British electorate could have been so stupid. Ebbw-Vale a prime example. Talk about biting the hand that feeds them. They always were an insular, mistrusting bunch, just like the Cornish who also voted to leave. They were looked after far better by the EU than they ever were by Westminster

[fish]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding
The vote was narrow and only represents a minority of potential voters
The impression I have is that a lot that voted for Brexit did so on feelings rather than considering the financial implications.
In the light of day a lot will be having second thoughts
Does it require parliamentary vote to invoke article 50?
When is it likely to happen?-doesnt seem to be immediate and maybe the U.K. has the advantage here if they play for time.
The EU bureaucrats who helped push the UK to this decision want it to happen asap but may well be disappointed if I am reading the mood of the UK

[ratkin]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding
The vote was narrow and only represents a minority of potential voters
The impression I have is that a lot that voted for Brexit did so on feelings rather than considering the financial implications.
In the light of day a lot will be having second thoughts
Does it require parliamentary vote to invoke article 50?
When is it likely to happen?-doesnt seem to be immediate and maybe the U.K. has the advantage here if they play for time.
The EU bureaucrats who helped push the UK to this decision want it to happen asap but may well be disappointed if I am reading the mood of the UK

One of my political active friends from Taunton and remain campaigner wrote the following this morning
The % vote in favour of Brexit was barely half and many of those who voted now acknowledge they were making a protest vote, and if they could vote again they would now vote in. Therefore I do not regard this as an overwhelming mandate for Brexit. It is clear that the Brexit brigade have played a massive con-trick on the ordinary voter with their lies about the money they will be able to spend on the NHs and their ability to stop immigration. Also 2 thirds of MP’s are anti-Brexit, so getting the Brexit legislation through Parliament will be difficult. It will be a long process to overcome this vote which was obtained under false pretences. At the moment nobody knows what the Brexit brigade hope to achieve through their negotiations with the EU. Once the proposals have been agreed then I believe we will need another referendum to ratify the proposals where 16 & 17 year olds are also given the chance to vote , bearing in mind it is their futures who are most at stake. I am happy to announce that our ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ group is not disbanding and anyone who wants to join us is welcome. In the meanwhile please sign the You Gov petition demanding a second referendum -2,273, 000 & rising.

[Cricketfan]

It would be good to know if this referendum is actually legally binding

It's not legally binding.

[fish]

It's not legally binding.

Thanks
I see a number of companies are planning to sue the Brexit campaigners for using their Logo and misrepresenting their views

[winner69]

Britain as the leaver (if leaving) sets the timetable - the EU can't 'speed' the process up

[King1212]

U guys still remember February just gone..where China n oil were depressed...people think it was going to be the end of the world....n now..it is all forgotten....

[Bobdn]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eu-cash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale

It is fairly difficult to understand how the British electorate could have been so stupid. Ebbw-Vale a prime example. Talk about biting the hand that feeds them. They always were an insular, mistrusting bunch, just like the Cornish who also voted to leave. They were looked after far better by the EU than they ever were by Westminster

I know what you mean, Norway and Switzerland are real basket cases, for example. Britain only has to look at those countries to see how desperate life can be outside the EU.

[Bjauck]

I know what you mean, Norway and Switzerland are real basket cases, for example. Britain only has to look at those countries to see how desperate life can be outside the EU.
Norway population 5m
Switzerland population 8m

Switzerland is always a special case and Norway is oil-rich (and used its oil income to amass wealth).

Besides Norway has to accept freedom of movement of labour, One of the chief reasons behind the vote for Brexit, in order to have their EU trade deal.

UK population 64m!
I would say the UK would become more akin to Bosnia_Herzegovina, especially given the now more likely Balkanisation of Britain with a disintegrating UK.

[winner69]

One of my political active friends from Taunton and remain campaigner wrote the following this morning
The % vote in favour of Brexit was barely half and many of those who voted now acknowledge they were making a protest vote, and if they could vote again they would now vote in. Therefore I do not regard this as an overwhelming mandate for Brexit. It is clear that the Brexit brigade have played a massive con-trick on the ordinary voter with their lies about the money they will be able to spend on the NHs and their ability to stop immigration. Also 2 thirds of MP’s are anti-Brexit, so getting the Brexit legislation through Parliament will be difficult. It will be a long process to overcome this vote which was obtained under false pretences. At the moment nobody knows what the Brexit brigade hope to achieve through their negotiations with the EU. Once the proposals have been agreed then I believe we will need another referendum to ratify the proposals where 16 & 17 year olds are also given the chance to vote , bearing in mind it is their futures who are most at stake. I am happy to announce that our ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ group is not disbanding and anyone who wants to join us is welcome. In the meanwhile please sign the You Gov petition demanding a second referendum -2,273, 000 & rising.

Thanks for sharing mate

[Bobdn]

Norway population 5m
Switzerland population 8m

Switzerland is always a special case and Norway is oil-rich (and used its oil income to amass wealth).

Besides Norway has to accept freedom of movement of labour, One of the chief reasons behind the vote for Brexit, in order to have their EU trade deal.

UK population 64m!
I would say the UK would become more akin to Bosnia_Herzegovina, especially given the now more likely Balkanisation of Britain with a disintegrating UK.

Britain is huge economically, the 5th largest economy in the world (depending on the value of the pound on any given day:) and the countries on the continent really like selling the UK loads of stuff. I think Britain's size is a plus.

Anyway, love the way people want another referendum because they weren't happy with the result of the first one. Let's have a do-over until we get the result we want :)

[Bobdn]

I should add, I have no real skin in this game apart from my BHP shares being listed on the FTSE. My parents are Brit/EU citizens (through their parents) but through a law change in the 1970s, it doesn't now extend to me.

[drcjp]

One of my political active friends from Taunton and remain campaigner wrote the following this morning
The % vote in favour of Brexit was barely half and many of those who voted now acknowledge they were making a protest vote, and if they could vote again they would now vote in. Therefore I do not regard this as an overwhelming mandate for Brexit. It is clear that the Brexit brigade have played a massive con-trick on the ordinary voter with their lies about the money they will be able to spend on the NHs and their ability to stop immigration. Also 2 thirds of MP’s are anti-Brexit, so getting the Brexit legislation through Parliament will be difficult. It will be a long process to overcome this vote which was obtained under false pretences. At the moment nobody knows what the Brexit brigade hope to achieve through their negotiations with the EU. Once the proposals have been agreed then I believe we will need another referendum to ratify the proposals where 16 & 17 year olds are also given the chance to vote , bearing in mind it is their futures who are most at stake. I am happy to announce that our ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ group is not disbanding and anyone who wants to join us is welcome. In the meanwhile please sign the You Gov petition demanding a second referendum -2,273, 000 & rising.

This is such a stupid set of statements. If they were making "protest votes" and didn't know Cameron had said the ref was going to be honoured, then they shouldn't have voted at all. This para. is the usual "I can't take losing" kind of statement that causes market turmoil and social unrest. One can argue the need for higher voting thresholds (eg. minimum of 65% yes or no) and so on, but that occurs prior to the vote.

The vote has happened, the results are in. Suck it up and get on with life.

[Bjauck]

..
Anyway, love the way people want another referendum because they weren't happy with the result of the first one. Let's have a do-over until we get the result we want :) Bear in mind that one of the two main proponents of Brexit, Nigel Farage, suggested just in May that if his side were in a similar position with a slender defeat, they would ask for a second referendum!

[Bjauck]

...The vote has happened, the results are in. Suck it up and get on with life. Remember that the referendum was not a binding referendum.

[minimoke]

It is fairly difficult to understand how the British electorate could have been so stupid.
Heard on the wireless this morning that apparently the Americans are pretty happy. They are now no longer the dumbest nation in the world.

[Ghost Monkey]

Heard on the wireless this morning that apparently the Americans are pretty happy. They are now no longer the dumbest nation in the world.

They'll get the chance to retake that crown in November.

[ratkin]

Remember that the referendum was not a binding referendum.

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/25/12031254/no-brexit-article-50

[JBmurc]

Britain is huge economically, the 5th largest economy in the world (depending on the value of the pound on any given day:) and the countries on the continent really like selling the UK loads of stuff. I think Britain's size is a plus.

Anyway, love the way people want another referendum because they weren't happy with the result of the first one. Let's have a do-over until we get the result we want :)

Yes had the remain vote won by just one percent I'm sure you wouldn't have all this re-due the vote rubbish.... and as for Ireland /Scots voting out of Great Britain .... that wouldn't be as bad for England as many think ...the Scots depend soon to be depleted north sea for a great bulk of their income and overall have been a drag on the UK..

[fish]

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/25/12031254/no-brexit-article-50

Reading this it looks as if Scotland or Northern Ireland could veto Brexit.
If parliament passes legislation to prevent the above we could see the break up of the UK.

[King1212]

Anyone has an access on below paid article? Look interesting...

http://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/190830

[kura]

He He Alternatively England could simply leave the UK !

[fungus pudding]

He He Alternatively England could simply leave the UK !

Would it really matter if the UK split up?

[bohemian]

The only sensible comment ive heard has been from Merkel who said " calm down". It is the function of Governents to govern and they should ignore the referendum result in the first instance. Then I think that in order, Cameron should resign immediately for being an idiot, the interim leader Theresa May should then call the Parliament and put the vote to leave as a conscience vote. If the vote is to leave, the Government should dissolve the Parliament and call fresh elections so that the electorate can have another go. Too much democracy is not a good thing in my opinion and never call a referendum unless you are sure it will go you way.

[Bjauck]

He He Alternatively England could simply leave the UK ! There is also a petition for London to leave England. lol .
If the UK continues to drag its feet on the S50 "self destruct?" exit notification, maybe the other 27 nations of the EU could all simultaneously trigger a S.50 exit from the EU and then immediately join an EU#2 minus the UK, with exactly the same provisions as the existing EU.

[Bjauck]

The only sensible comment ive heard has been from Merkel who said " calm down". It is the function of Governents to govern and they should ignore the referendum result in the first instance. Then I think that in order, Cameron should resign immediately for being an idiot, the interim leader Theresa May should then call the Parliament and put the vote to leave as a conscience vote. If the vote is to leave, the Government should dissolve the Parliament and call fresh elections so that the electorate can have another go. Too much democracy is not a good thing in my opinion and never call a referendum unless you are sure it will go you way. Merkel's is a voice of experience and reason from a seasoned stateswoman. She knows it is not in anyone's interest to make rushed and acrimonious decisions.

[bohemian]

Merkel has a PhD in Quantum Chemistry and so knows stuff. I can't imagine that she won't contol and massage this disaster for the benefit of all of Europe and the U.K. and a good start would be a few leadership changes, Cameron and that drunk Juncker gone in short order.

[JBmurc]

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said the government’s faith in Brussels remained strong, despite Sweden’s EU minister issuing dire warnings about the harm a Brexit could cause to the country’s economical and political status.

Mr Lofven said: “We are apart of this community to get power over our shared future.

“We respect the decision. The election results are a wake-up call for Europe.

“But it is worrying. I hope that the British people can unite and look to the future.

“Sweden is strong and the government has prepared for this. We are monitoring the economic developments
closely.”

Britain’s historical decision to break with red-tape obsessed Brussels has set off a series referendum demands across the Continent, also in Sweden.

As Denmark, France and the Netherlands face calls for referendums, the Sweden Democrats have joined the rally demanding that the Swedish people are given a vote.




Ex. US foriegn minster -John Bolton on Brexit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwqPf-8aNwo

[bohemian]

A good start would be for this drunk Juncker to be given the sack. Watch as he gives " bitch slaps".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

[Baa_Baa]

Intriguing the depth of discussion though so little of it reflecting on how our share market will respond tomorrow! Given that the US was last to react and fell badly, one might think NZX will follow suit, though the nagging doubt is why the FTSE plummented initially and spent their day recovering a good deal of the losses.

[fungus pudding]

Intriguing the depth of discussion though so little of it reflecting on how our share market will respond tomorrow! Given that the US was last to react and fell badly, one might think NZX will follow suit, though the nagging doubt is why the FTSE plummented initially and spent their day recovering a good deal of the losses.

The eyes of the planet will be on little old N.Z. tomorrow so I hope we're off to a good start. Could have a bit of an influence as other markets open. So get out and buy up big at top prices :D :cool:

[fish]

Intriguing the depth of discussion though so little of it reflecting on how our share market will respond tomorrow! Given that the US was last to react and fell badly, one might think NZX will follow suit, though the nagging doubt is why the FTSE plummented initially and spent their day recovering a good deal of the losses.

My take on this is that markets are initially driven by emotion hence the cautious get out reflected in the drop in the FTSE and then rationality returns.
Uncertainty will continue and European markets will be very volatile.
The NZ market Knew Brexit had won well before closure-The Forex dealer I spoke to was pretty sure about this at 3pm on Friday.
Stocks likely to be affected directly by Brexit are going to be volatile.
The increased prospect of low interest rates might stop high dividend stocks such as Genesis from falling further

[King1212]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663841

market has over reacted...

[Valuegrowth]

I agree with You.
The eyes of the planet will be on little old N.Z. tomorrow so I hope we're off to a good start. Could have a bit of an influence as other markets open. So get out and buy up big at top prices :D :cool:


I agree with you too.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663841

market has over reacted...

How about identifying some Post-Brexit winners?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-25/scotland-starts-drive-to-stay-in-eu-independence-option-open/7543950

Brexit: Scotland starts drive to stay in European Union after referendum

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't really matter what was said during the referendum - mostly lies anyway, esp from the leave side.

In an obscure sort of way Britain could be holding a a few aces if they only threaten to follow through and leave and then seek EU reforms.

EU looking a bitbp stuffed eh

Not sure whether "stuffed" is the right word - I think "fed up" would describe the European feelings much better. Seriously - I could imagine that they allow the Brits to stay if they ask nicely enough - but they would be even more stupid than the Brits who voted in the referendum without understanding the consequences if they would give the UK any preferential treatment.

Sure - the so called UK is (at current) still the second largest economy in the EU, but they have the tendency to use their muscles often against their European "friends". Actually - on a second thought: long term Europe might be better off without having a constantly whinging and mentally unstable but demanding "partner" on the Southern part of the Eastern British island, who is happy to stab the Europeans anytime they see fit into the back. Good riddance with them - cut them off now instead of keeping this festering sore as part of the EU.

[Tomtom]

I saw this on the Guardian website and think it summarises the present situation quite well as we head into a period when a new PM will be chosen (who would ideally serve until 2020 or possibly a no confidence vote):
8129

[kura]

In WW2 the Germans were amazed that "Little Britain" refused to make peace, when rest of Western Europe was occupied by Germany

I like little guys with balls !

[Raz]

I saw this on the Guardian website and think it summarises the present situation quite well as we head into a period when a new PM will be chosen (who would ideally serve until 2020 or possibly a no confidence vote):
8129

Aha, politically very much so, they also lack anyone with the hardened experience to negotiate with the the EU and other countries for free trade agreements...

[Vaygor1]

I saw this on the Guardian website and think it summarises the present situation quite well as we head into a period when a new PM will be chosen (who would ideally serve until 2020 or possibly a no confidence vote):
8129

Thanks for the post TT.

What the Guardian has written here rings well with me.

I saw David Cameron's resignation speech live and immediately thought that his resignation was less to do with the political quandary he personally found himself in, but a lot more to do with a response that may as well have said "Well, you've opened pandora's box here and when it comes to the nightmare of change ahead, I didn't ask for it and I can't be arsed".

Perhaps the outcome here just might be an EU with reformed, more palatable rules on immigration, and a continuing UK membership?

[BlackCross]

A significant number of 'Bregret' voters now wishing they hadn't voted out or, in some cases, that they'd bothered to vote and that the consequences had been honestly explained.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-anger-bregret-leave-voters-protest-vote-thought-uk-stay-in-eu-remain-win-a7102516.html

The whole thing's been shambolic and seems to be staying that way.

[workingdad]

Not sure how the NZX will go today but I think the FTSE will drop further yet as the reality sets in. The weak sterling will cause petrol companies to increase pump prices very quickly and other consumer goods like food will follow, the people of the UK are already having regrets and factor this in when it happens and the mood will be more negative.

The EU is at risk of further exits and more global uncertainty.

The herald today made a point I hadn't linked yet, the markets of the countries with a central bank that has more headroom to move monetary policy such as rate cuts faired better than the ones that are already nearing the end of stimulus options. Another rate cut in the US or round of QE....

Interesting week ahead and regardless of how our little market performs, the big money and overseas markets will dictate how we do on Tuesday.

[dobby41]

A significant number of 'Bregret' voters now wishing they hadn't voted out or, in some cases, that they'd bothered to vote and that the consequences had been honestly explained.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-anger-bregret-leave-voters-protest-vote-thought-uk-stay-in-eu-remain-win-a7102516.html

The whole thing's been shambolic and seems to be staying that way.

They are idiots!
Vote to leave, don't like it when you actually get what you wished for and want another turn.
Keeps having referendums until you get the result you want - to stay.
Idiots!

[fungus pudding]

They are idiots!
Vote to leave, don't like it when you actually get what you wished for and want another turn.
Keeps having referendums until you get the result you want - to stay.
Idiots!

It shows the stupidity of putting complex matters up for a public referendum. Funnily enough the only way to get out of this would be by referendum!

[winner69]

Poor Boris - he wanted to succeed Cameron, not topple him and having to sort the mess out.

No wonder he's lying low

[fish]

Poor Boris - he wanted to succeed Cameron, not topple him and having to sort the mess out.

No wonder he's lying low

Who is going to want to negotiate their way out of the EU?
Enemies don't negotiate well.
Feelings are so powerful.
Meanwhile Sturgeon is off to the EU to tell them how much Scotland values the EU and wants to stay in.
The English and Welsh have made their bed but may not want to lie in it too long-just my Feeling!

[fungus pudding]

Poor Boris - he wanted to succeed Cameron, not topple him and having to sort the mess out.

No wonder he's lying low

Then he should stand aside and let Theresa May win the battle, assuming she will throw her hat in the ring.

[Raz]

Who is going to want to negotiate their way out of the EU?
Enemies don't negotiate well.
Feelings are so powerful.
Meanwhile Sturgeon is off to the EU to tell them how much Scotland values the EU and wants to stay in.
The English and Welsh have made their bed but may not want to lie in it too long-just my Feeling!

Scotland is a net drain on the EU - naturally they want the money and stay in. Economics on both sides and the EU budget means all parties will have to sort it out with compromise...as both sides do not have the luxury to play games of being enemies. Compromise will happen however it will take a long time to sort out.

Being on the ground currently i would not believe all you read in the papers in NZ. Those that wanted to exit had little to lose with the current situation and I see little buyers regret at this point from those who I have talked to. A very polarised society is clearly evident thou. very entrenched views on both sides...

[skid]

It shows the stupidity of putting complex matters up for a public referendum. Funnily enough the only way to get out of this would be by referendum!

Heres the troubling part--its the same ''stuff you'' attitude that is happening with trump in the States--They could well and truly stuff everything up over there as well.
It wouldnt be so bad(I believe its gotta come) if it wasnt for the fact that its would be a mad man at the helm---I would expect more of this sort of thing if he succeeds.

I wonder how hard it would be to have another ''snap'' referendum in England--every one deserves a second chance,especially if the petition gets into the high numbers

[skid]

Scotland is a net drain on the EU - naturally they want the money and stay in. Economics on both sides and the EU budget means all parties will have to sort it out with compromise...as both sides do not have the luxury to play games of being enemies. Compromise will happen however it will take a long time to sort out.

Being on the ground currently i would not believe all you read in the papers in NZ. Those that wanted to exit had little to lose with the current situation and I see little buyers regret at this point from those who I have talked to. A very polarised society is clearly evident thou. very entrenched views on both sides...

Remember ..they didnt win by much--people hate the politicians(fair enough) but they have made a statement already --why pay the price?(any more)

[Raz]

Heres the troubling part--its the same ''stuff you'' attitude that is happening with trump in the States--They could well and truly stuff everything up over there as well.
It wouldnt be so bad(I believe its gotta come) if it wasnt for the fact that its would be a mad man at the helm---I would expect more of this sort of thing if he succeeds.

I wonder how hard it would be to have another ''snap'' referendum in England--every one deserves a second chance,especially if the petition gets into the high numbers

Actually very hard..you can't keep going until you get the result you want. most of the numbers in the petition are from Scotland and London. What did they really expect...you can't give people a choice that have been screwed over via the current system to this degree. Possibly they thought the disaffected were now in the minority and they would get away with it, pure political miscalculation. A lot of these people have very little to lose if you actually been in some of the areas where the exit vote was high.

See the same deal in the US, the status quo may still keep them in as the imports there may still hold the numbers in the end.

[Raz]

Remember ..they didnt win by much--people hate the politicians(fair enough) but they have made a statement already --why pay the price?(any more)

Thats the point I think you miss..this is a lot more than the hate of politicians...the status quo is not a sustainable or palatable proposition for many as is.

[workingdad]

Reds coming up an awful lot, doesn't look good for the day....

[Joshuatree]

the world is watching the first exchange of the day drop 1% (NZX50)

[JBmurc]

Yes I would think if the Scots really wanted to leave the UK they should get the English to Vote ...

[fish]

A lot of these people have very little to lose if you actually been in some of the areas where the exit vote was high.

See the same deal in the US, the status quo may still keep them in as the imports there may still hold the numbers in the end.[/QUOTE]

I have the feeling that a lot of the Brexit voters have been misled-eg the welsh steel/mining towns have had a lot of infrastructure put in by the EU-employment boosted etc-this will lie empty with brexit

[mondograss]

I understand that Camerons resignation actually throws the whole thing into doubt. The referendum isn't binding and if the govt collapses and there's a fresh election you can bet that will see a new fight between Leave and Remain as well as Tory and Labour.

[Nasi Goreng]

Has anyone sold up since midday Friday? Plan to sell today?

[workingdad]

Has anyone sold up since midday Friday? Plan to sell today?

Yep. Friday at 2pm and remaining in pre open trading. Didn't have a lot in to be fair. Only had some AIR shares after getting rid of everything a few months ago.

[Blue Horseshoe]

I don't get it, I thought that Scotland wanted independence, but now want to be run by the EU, where's the independence there.??

[stoploss]

I don't get it, I thought that Scotland wanted independence, but now want to be run by the EU, where's the independence there.??

I thought they voted against independence ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

[Zaphod]

I don't get it, I thought that Scotland wanted independence, but now want to be run by the EU, where's the independence there.??

Scotland obviously view the benefits of remaining within the EU as greater than those of true independence. Besides, it's all 'degrees of independence', nothing is black and white.

[Raz]

Has anyone sold up since midday Friday? Plan to sell today?

I was very much cashed up although i sold what was left on Thursday as i expected this result. Currently purchased some pounds and will look at investing in the UK, see a lot of opportunity.

[Raz]

Scotland obviously view the benefits of remaining within the EU as greater than those of true independence. Besides, it's all 'degrees of independence', nothing is black and white.

They are financially stuffed without EU support..its that simple.

[Ace]

I was very much cashed up although i sold what was left on Thursday as i expected this result. Currently purchased some pounds and will look at investing in the UK, see a lot of opportunity.

You would have had a great time shorting the GBP if you expected that result, a couple of my friends did just that. Although I'm not too comfortable with forex and I felt like there was a bit too much guesswork or uncertainty for my liking.

[Raz]

I understand that Camerons resignation actually throws the whole thing into doubt. The referendum isn't binding and if the govt collapses and there's a fresh election you can bet that will see a new fight between Leave and Remain as well as Tory and Labour.

It come down to who replaces him at this point.

[Zaphod]

They are financially stuffed without EU support..its that simple.

Perhaps they could court some of the financial institutions that will leave London? Although Frankfurt and Dublin seem to be the primary choices for relocation at the moment.

These are some very interesting times!

[winner69]

No real panic

Could even be back to square one by end of the day --- maybe even up

[bull....]

looks like futures will target that 16900 - 17000 level short term break down of the channel and 50% fib levels but of course need to wait for us open for confirmation s&p will fall more naturally as dow contains some defensive companies like one of my favs Verizon up nicely this yr

[minimoke]

What short memories we have.

One of the reasons nzx has done so well is the dividend policy of our companies.

If we see global interest rate increase falter nzx will become attractive - especially given we have relatively low exposure to uk and eu.

The question ought not be on selling but when to buy in.

[Nasi Goreng]

No real panic

Could even be back to square one by end of the day --- maybe even up

Ironic isn't it that the market probably fell further during the lead up to Grexit. I think this has still got further to drop.

[skid]

the world is watching the first exchange of the day drop 1% (NZX50)

Im all out--Took a loss on AIR but I had to ask myself ''would I rather have my shares now ..or have the same amount for $?? later, if I want)--Look at the situation,skid,--does it look like reason for optimism?-How many ways could this become more unstuck--a country is in danger of splitting up (3rd biggest economy)--Europe was in turmoil before--now this....IMO share markets were already overvalued(at least most places)...Im not afraid to take the loss...happier on the sidelines....keeping the gold of course.....''He who fights and runs away....lives to fight another day..:)

[skid]

I was very much cashed up although i sold what was left on Thursday as i expected this result. Currently purchased some pounds and will look at investing in the UK, see a lot of opportunity.

Might be an idea to look at gold as well;)

[bull....]

some on here and in the media are mis- understanding the fall on the ftse
ftse 100 was down less because of the pound fall which benefits them the ftse 250 was down 7% reflecting EU falls ftse 250 is more local business

[JBmurc]

Well the BOJ would certainly be jealous of the major devalue of the pound ...BOJ pushed into negative rates trying to drive down the value of the Yen to see the currency drive 15% higher on safe haven buying ....


http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-ttip-what-next-europe-canada-trade-a7104356.html

Since the adoption of the Lisbon Agenda in 2000, the EU has committed itself to the most extreme programme of neoliberal capitalism in its trade agreements with other countries, relentlessly promoting the interests of big business at the expense of labour, society and the
environment.


-Looks like the ASX might well open in the green going from the futures


-Not selling my ASX positions but then Gold / PGM are going up in value

[BlackPeter]

A sea of red in my watchlist - some of them I can understand (like AIR, THL, various banks), some I am somewhat surprised about. I wouldn't have thought that retirement villages (SUM, MET, RYM) and gentailers (CEN & Co) will be hard hit due to the decision of the English to leave the EU, but on the other hand - given that I can't understand the English people, why should I be able to understand the markets?

Any ideas how NZ retirement villages and power generators are linked into the English exitus?

[skid]

What short memories we have.

One of the reasons nzx has done so well is the dividend policy of our companies.

If we see global interest rate increase falter nzx will become attractive - especially given we have relatively low exposure to uk and eu.

The question ought not be on selling but when to buy in.

Maybe in the longer run ,but usually the smaller economies are considered more risky when things are looking dangerous---investors go to ''safe havens''

[Bjauck]

They are idiots!
Vote to leave, don't like it when you actually get what you wished for and want another turn.
Keeps having referendums until you get the result you want - to stay.
Idiots! But that is exactly what Farage from the Brexit side said before the referendum. If the result against brexit had been close he said that there should be a second referendum. Also, other countries had two referendums on accepting the new European treaty.

[skid]

A sea of red in my watchlist - some of them I can understand (like AIR, THL, various banks), some I am somewhat surprised about. I wouldn't have thought that retirement villages (SUM, MET, RYM) and gentailers (CEN & Co) will be hard hit due to the decision of the English to leave the EU, but on the other hand - given that I can't understand the English people, why should I be able to understand the markets?

Any ideas how NZ retirement villages and power generators are linked into the English exitus?

NZ retirement villages are still good comparatively to everything else---but everything is falling atm---Globalization often overrides fundamentals----If it carries on, those newer to the game will have the education that us oldies(GFC) have experienced.
Being a good company wont save from drops...but its a good thing to look at when the damage stops. imo

[Bjauck]

Who is going to want to negotiate their way out of the EU?
Enemies don't negotiate well.
Feelings are so powerful.
Meanwhile Sturgeon is off to the EU to tell them how much Scotland values the EU and wants to stay in.
The English and Welsh have made their bed but may not want to lie in it too long-just my Feeling!

Scotland's trade is mostly with England. If Scotland is in the EU and England outside, how would Scotland fare with low oil prices and with a border and tariffs with England?

[blackcap]

Any ideas how NZ retirement villages and power generators are linked into the English exitus?

Opportunity cost, and risk premium. It is now "riskier" to hold "stocks" in general so there is a premium on the risk of holding stocks, whatever stock that may be.

p.s forgot about currency implications too.
ie the FTSE was only down a few points on Friday, a lot less than the DAX etc, but if you are a foreigner investing in UK stocks you lost a huge % because the pound had depreciated largely as well....

So there are many other permutations etc to take into account as to why NZ retirement villages and power generators are linked.

[Bjauck]

...
Being on the ground currently i would not believe all you read in the papers in NZ. Those that wanted to exit had little to lose with the current situation and I see little buyers regret at this point from those who I have talked to. A very polarised society is clearly evident thou. very entrenched views on both sides... If England's economy tanks surely some of the hardest hit will be the industrial northern English regions that voted for a Brexit?

[xafalcon]

I fully sold up 3 weeks ago, now (and for the remainder of 2016) I will remain zero equities

IMO there are too many storm clouds on the horizon atm - Brexit vote, Donald Trump, US Presidential election, EU economic stagnation, Aussie double dissolution, Japanese stimulus failure (again, again), China uncertainty

If I'm wrong, it's only a year of lost opportunity

Very happy I took a cautious position and left the market

I am now just an interested bystander

I don't think Brexit is all bad, but it will be disruptive for a long time and may be contagious

[Mickey]

NZ retirement villages are still good comparatively to everything else---but everything is falling atm---Globalization often overrides fundamentals----If it carries on, those newer to the game will have the education that us oldies(GFC) have experienced.
Being a good company wont save from drops...but its a good thing to look at when the damage stops. imo

With you there Skid - I'm going to wait this one out. I expect the buyers will start to enter the market fairly quickly once this initial global selling frenzy tapers off. We may even see some foreign investors park in our market for a while given that we have a reasonable degree of separation from what's happening in Europe. Time will reveal all.

[Nasi Goreng]

Well I sold my SUM on Friday for $4.40.

My rationale was that if this turns into some form of credit squeeze (look at how European banks got hammered), it will have a negative impact on borrowing and that generally leads to housing corrections.

I will be watching closely and there may be a chance to buy in once the dust has settled or opportunities in other areas.

[Southern_Belle]

Explanation in a nutshell
https://vimeo.com/135166094

[warthog]

I don't get it, I thought that Scotland wanted independence, but now want to be run by the EU, where's the independence there.??

There is widespread misunderstanding of what the EU is and how it operates.

It occurs to the Hog that this is behind much turmoil and confusion. At least with some knowledge one can disagree on an informed basis.

Being a member of a family isn't always fun. There are squabbles, power disagreements as the kids get older, etc.

As any parent will tell you, one hopes that things turn out perfectly, but ultimately life is not like that.

Sometimes compromise is the only way forward.

Unfortunately, for some, compromise is not acceptable. They want to have their cake and eat it, too. Let's hope for their sake that they fully understand the results of their decisions.

[warthog]

You would have had a great time shorting the GBP if you expected that result, a couple of my friends did just that. Although I'm not too comfortable with forex and I felt like there was a bit too much guesswork or uncertainty for my liking.

Many people shorting Sterling would have covered as the early results came in. Only the stupid ones, or those who could afford larger losses, would have held on and got lucky.

Just shows that sometimes it pays to be stupid.

[bull....]

looks like asia wants to rally - probably because has not impact over this part world

[fish]

Has anyone sold up since midday Friday? Plan to sell today?
actually I am doing the opposite-bought more gne at 198 at opening-I go for big dividends and cheap prices.
An investment long-term for future retirement-this way I control my investments without others clipping the ticket regardless of their mistakes!

[winner69]

No real panic

Could even be back to square one by end of the day --- maybe even up


Looking good - NZX prob +ve by end of day

Lot of noise eh ...keeps the traders happy if nothing else.

[Longhaul]

looks like asia wants to rally - probably because has not impact over this part world

Maybe the chance of UK actually following through with Brexit is looking less likely by the hour. It's a complete political mess over there at the moment.

I hardly think they will actually want to try and tackle this over the next decade for what gains exactly?

[Beagle]

There is widespread misunderstanding of what the EU is and how it operates.

It occurs to the Hog that this is behind much turmoil and confusion. At least with some knowledge one can disagree on an informed basis.

Being a member of a family isn't always fun. There are squabbles, power disagreements as the kids get older, etc.

As any parent will tell you, one hopes that things turn out perfectly, but ultimately life is not like that.
Sometimes compromise is the only way forward.

Unfortunately, for some, compromise is not acceptable. They want to have their cake and eat it, too. Let's hope for their sake that they fully understand the results of their decisions.

Sum's the situation up very well in my opinion. N.Z. does 3% of its trade with the U.K. While there's no question some contagion risk exists, (other members of the E.U. see the neighbours having a really good barney and think its a good idea too) there's also the possibility that other E.U. members will see how ugly this gets for the U.K. and think not for us...or maybe I am just trying to pin a tail on a donkey and call it cute...who the heck knows...

[Balance]

Sum's the situation up very well in my opinion. N.Z. does 3% of its trade with the U.K. While there's no question some contagion risk exists, (other members of the E.U. see the neighbours having a really good barney and think its a good idea too) there's also the possibility that other E.U. members will see how ugly this gets for the U.K. and think not for us...or maybe I am just trying to pin a tail on a donkey and call it cute...who the heck knows...

China will be a huge beneficiary of Brexit imo and in turn, NZ and Oz will be net beneficiaries.

Meanwhile, Germany which really guides and ultimately determines EU policies (refer PIGS crisis) will be guided by self-interest to make sure its trading relationship with UK is maintained - 1 out of 5 German manufactured cars is sold in the UK. Impossible to find a replacement for that size of market.

Those panicking are similar to those who panicked out during 9/11 - emotional stress rather than economic realities.

[Rep]

Meanwhile, Germany which really guides and ultimately determines EU policies (refer PIGS crisis) will be guided by self-interest to make sure its trading relationship with UK is maintained - 1 out of 5 German manufactured cars is sold in the UK. Impossible to find a replacement for that size of market.

I'm old enough to remember CKD assembly plants - BMW already have a plant in the UK assembling Minis - German auto industry just presses panels and engines and ships boxes to the UK to put them together thus creating jobs (albeit at very low value add) for the new protected UK market that harbour British jobs for Britons. But in reality, British consumers pay more for their BMWs as we did for Fords and Hondas from Wiri, Toyotas from Thames, Holdens from Trentham, Mazdas from Sylvia Park and some outfit that was assembling in Nelson (?!)

[skid]

looks like asia wants to rally - probably because has not impact over this part world

I think Japan was probably a bit over done on Friday--made up a bit today

[skid]

China will be a huge beneficiary of Brexit imo and in turn, NZ and Oz will be net beneficiaries.

Meanwhile, Germany which really guides and ultimately determines EU policies (refer PIGS crisis) will be guided by self-interest to make sure its trading relationship with UK is maintained - 1 out of 5 German manufactured cars is sold in the UK. Impossible to find a replacement for that size of market.

Those panicking are similar to those who panicked out during 9/11 - emotional stress rather than economic realities.

Theres just about every prediction imaginable at this stage--some say a ''screaming buy''...others just the opposite --this from the Elliot wave folks

The bottom line

Accelerated by the Brexit vote, the S&P 500 confirmed a correction that should pull the S&P to 1,970-1,925 (possibly even lower). There should be rallies along the way (potentially powerful), but it appears the overall trend will be lower for the coming weeks.

If it does go pear shaped ,there will no doubt be some dead cat bounces along the way.

[vin]

^ Agreed. Deadcat bounces are what I'm a bit nervous about. Reduced one of my holdings significantly, just to cover my ass. The whole 'too many eggs in one basket' scenario.

[Balance]

^ Agreed. Deadcat bounces are what I'm a bit nervous about. Reduced one of my holdings significantly, just to cover my ass. The whole 'too many eggs in one basket' scenario.

Yes, must be comfortable and be able to sleep at nights.

But one thing is for sure - Central Banks and governments will flood the market with 'helicopter' money if markets do not stabilize and economic conditions deteriorate.

[Grunter]

My feeling is that Britain will negotiate agreements with individual countries much along the same lines as they have under existing EU agreements.

Look to the agreements and rights that Switzerland has as an example of a non-EU member interacting with the EU.

[ratkin]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/fightback-against-brexit-on-cards-remain-eu-referendum-heseltine

The common folk cant be allowed to win the referendum, better make it best of Three

[craic]

Rep, you may remember Fords and Honda's from Wiri but my very first job in nz in April 1960 was assembling Fords at Gracefield, Lower Hutt. As to putting all eggs in one basket, all mine are in spk and I trade from there. I bought the block back about a week ago and intended to sell on friday? while the vote was still being counted but waited for an extra cent or two but missed the bus and down they went. But, now they are back to my cost price and I must sit on the screen waiting for another 3 to four cents to make a profit. I am using this time to put down a couple more washes for my still as supplies are getting low. My son is Bank of America, London, but I haven't heard a whisper from him.

[minimoke]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/fightback-against-brexit-on-cards-remain-eu-referendum-heseltine

The common folk cant be allowed to win the referendum, better make it best of Threeif the parliamentarians had real balls they would call for a general election, let the Parties articulate their position and then see if that position is vindicated in the vote.

[Bjauck]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/fightback-against-brexit-on-cards-remain-eu-referendum-heseltine

The common folk cant be allowed to win the referendum, better make it best of Three Not all the common folk voted in the first place. Now when the repercussions are more obvious, give them a second chance. In the first place, when you factor in the turnout, less than half the electorate voted for a change in the UK's arrangements. Also Farage himself had called for a second referendum if the Brexit side lost....

[Bjauck]

if the parliamentarians had real balls they would call for a general election, let the Parties articulate their position and then see if that position is vindicated in the vote. Agree. The Brexit side had wanted the British parliament to be sovereign. The referendum had been non-binding and less than half of the electorate voted for a change.

[minimoke]

Nearing the end of the day all my stocks (except SKT) with nice blue up arrows next to them. Whats the fuss?

[minimoke]

Agree. The Brexit side had wanted the British parliament to be sovereign. The referendum had been non-binding and less than half of the electorate voted for a change.
Democracy gives you the right to choose to exercise a vote. But I remain firm in the view that if you dont vote (no matter what the issue is) you have no right to complain about the outcome.

[Balance]

Democracy gives you the right to choose to exercise a vote. But I remain firm in the view that if you dont vote (no matter what the issue is) you have no right to complain about the outcome.

Yup.

People risk beatings, injuries and some even die in some countries to get the right to vote.

[sb9]

Agree. The Brexit side had wanted the British parliament to be sovereign. The referendum had been non-binding and less than half of the electorate voted for a change.

Couldn't agree more, so in affect 1 vote could've changed the outcome of referendum one way or other. That's how dumb it was!!!

[BlackPeter]

My feeling is that Britain will negotiate agreements with individual countries much along the same lines as they have under existing EU agreements.

Look to the agreements and rights that Switzerland has as an example of a non-EU member interacting with the EU.

Sure ... unless they make a flip flop they won't have any other option. And the world will keep turning and spinning around the sun. I guess what people are concerned about is the time frame required to negotiate all these separate treaties. The treaty between Switzerland and the EU took from memory more than a decade (potentially two, depending what you count as start of negotiations) to finalise. Not a problem for me or you (I suppose), but industry is likely to pick during this time other places for their investments. Would you want to invest into a country if you don't know about the laws and contractual frameworks it is in future embedded in? High risk - and most people would not. And if Britain goes ahead with this separation, than they will be for a very long time in a situation without a clear and stable trading framework.

As well - both Switzerland as well as Norway pay heaps every year into the EU coffers, just for the privilege of being associated with the EU. Remember - Britain separated because they didn't wanted to pay their keep. Why do you think they want now to keep paying without even being able to influence European policies anymore?

[minimoke]

Couldn't agree more, so in affect 1 vote could've changed the outcome of referendum one way or other. That's how dumb it was!!!
No. thats the very nature of a vote. Sometimes it is by the slimmest of margins but a win is a win.

If cameron had any sense he would have structured the referendum so that a minimum 60% (say) was a required threshold.

Seems we have forgotten the american elections in 2000 hung on 500 votes to Bush in Florida. And we dont learn from history

[Bjauck]

Democracy gives you the right to choose to exercise a vote. But I remain firm in the view that if you dont vote (no matter what the issue is) you have no right to complain about the outcome. Surely not voting may actually be an active decision that neither side had convinced you of the merits of their case. It's why in many nations a super majority (eg 60%+ of the turnout and/or a majority of the total electorate) is required to force constitutional change such as that which a Brexit entails. In a non-binding referendum such as this one, if you do vote, you have to expect that whatever you vote for may not eventuate.

[minimoke]

Surely not voting may actually be an active decision that neither side had convinced you of the merits of their case.
Thats happened to me before. Like last election no way was Brownlee getting my vote but i didnt like the other options. But i have always turned up at the booth and had my name struck off the list. I figure thats my entry fee to future debate.

[Balance]

Surely not voting may actually be an active decision that neither side had convinced you of the merits of their case. It's why in many nations a super majority (eg 65%+ of the turnout and/or a majority of the total electorate) is required to force constitutional change such as that which a Brexit entails. In a non-binding referendum such as this one, if you do vote, you have to expect that whatever you vote for may not eventuate.

In which case, democracy says you accept the decision of the majority.

[ratkin]

Couldn't agree more, so in affect 1 vote could've changed the outcome of referendum one way or other. That's how dumb it was!!!

As it turns out the outcome was probably determined by the weather. London had terrible floods on the day of the vote, keeping many of the pro voters at home. Meanwhile the North east where many of the no voters reside had great voting weather. Just shows a referendum is no way to decide what is probably the most important decision to face Britain since entering the second world war

[Lewylewylewy]

Well, that's the end of the brexit vote panic. Hopefully everyone enjoyed their black Friday bargain shopping.

I can't wait for the next one... speaking of which, anyone know the date of the Trump vote? Lol

[Lego_Man]

Surely not voting may actually be an active decision that neither side had convinced you of the merits of their case. It's why in many nations a super majority (eg 60%+ of the turnout and/or a majority of the total electorate) is required to force constitutional change such as that which a Brexit entails. In a non-binding referendum such as this one, if you do vote, you have to expect that whatever you vote for may not eventuate.

Joining the EU didn't require a supermajority Referendum.

[fungus pudding]

Couldn't agree more, so in affect 1 vote could've changed the outcome of referendum one way or other. That's how dumb it was!!!

The dumb thing is ever putting such a complex matter to public referendum.

[minimoke]

As it turns out the outcome was probably determined by the weather.
That hoary old chestnut gets raised everywhere every election. I dont think there is any merit in it. If its important enough to cast a vote people will. Weather effects every one equally - though you could perhaps argue the elderly / infirm will be less likely to vote. But those issues are mitigated by the availability of postal voting.

[Balance]

The dumb thing is ever putting such a complex matter to public referendum.

Meaning the public are not entitled to a say? Precisely the reason why the public had a gutsful of EU bureaucratic nonsense.

[Bjauck]

In which case, democracy says you accept the decision of the majority. which,in the case of a non-binding referendum, is the majority of parliament.

[ratkin]

Half the problem with the British referendum is that clearly the people voting exit were on the whole far less educated than those voting to remain. Makes democracy a tricky affair when the stupid outnumber those that actually have at least a rudimentary grasp of whats at stake.
Should quantity outweigh quality?

8130

[Bjauck]

Joining the EU didn't require a supermajority Referendum....no as the decision was the crown-in-parliament's as it inevitably will be this time.

[Balance]

which,in the case of a non-binding referendum, is the majority of parliament.

Yup - if that's what the referedum says - binding or not binding.

[Bjauck]

Meaning the public are not entitled to a say? Precisely the reason why the public had a gutsful of EU bureaucratic nonsense. The public elect the parliament to vote for a governing cabinet to sort out the difficult stuff in their behalf.

[fungus pudding]

Meaning the public are not entitled to a say? Precisely the reason why the public had a gutsful of EU bureaucratic nonsense.

I'd far rather such matters put to a select committee or similar system where interested and informed parties can make submissions, than left to the man the street or the man learning all the pros and cons in the public bar. From all accounts one of the most searched queries on google of late is 'what is the EU?' Is that not alarming!

[minimoke]

The public elect the parliament to vote for a governing cabinet to sort out the difficult stuff in their behalf.
Except in 2015 the public voted in the conservatives knowing the issue would go to referendum

[blackcap]

Half the problem with the British referendum is that clearly the people voting exit were on the whole far less educated than those voting to remain. Makes democracy a tricky affair when the stupid outnumber those that actually have at least a rudimentary grasp of whats at stake.
Should quantity outweigh quality?

8130

Thats going down a slippery elitist slope though isn't it Ratkin. Or should dumb people not be allowed to have a say in the environs they inhabit?
You could almost argue that you need to pass an IQ test before you get a vote? Hard to define what quality is though and we would have never ending circles. Many of the chaps I know that are not too smart dub the educated as stupid. Who is to tell who is correct :)

[ratkin]

Thats going down a slippery elitist slope though isn't it Ratkin. Or should dumb people not be allowed to have a say in the environs they inhabit?
You could almost argue that you need to pass an IQ test before you get a vote? Hard to define what quality is though and we would have never ending circles. Many of the chaps I know that are not too smart dub the educated as stupid. Who is to tell who is correct :)

I knew that would cause a stir :D Its why it should never have gone to referendum in the first place.

[skid]

[QUOTE=Lewylewylewy;626280]Well, that's the end of the brexit vote panic. Hopefully everyone enjoyed their black Friday bargain shopping.


Do you mind if I save that quote for later?:)

Meanwhile ..for those of you going to the UK---the pound is sinking farther..

[janner]

Half the problem with the British referendum is that clearly the people voting exit were on the whole far less educated than those voting to remain. Makes democracy a tricky affair when the stupid outnumber those that actually have at least a rudimentary grasp of whats at stake.
Should quantity outweigh quality?

8130

Could that be because the more highly educated are warm and comfortable with the status Quo ?

Whether it is correct or not ..

[workingdad]

Interestingly FTSE futures have gone from 1% down to .4% up in the last hour or so.

[bohemian]

Could that be because the more highly educated are warm and comfortable with the status Quo ?

Whether it is correct or not .. Could be that have half a clue, you know intelligence and all that sort of thing.

[Jantar]

The public elect the parliament to vote for a governing cabinet to sort out the difficult stuff in their behalf. And when the governing cabinet continue to make poor decisions we can vote them out. The EU commission cannot be voted out, hence Brexit was a vote for democracy, not for economics.

Also interesting to note that educated and experienced britains, from most areas, voted Brexit. It was really only in London that the educated voted for remain.

[janner]

Could be that have half a clue, you know intelligence and all that sort of thing.


Having a whole clue is no guarantee of coming up with the correct answer..

[Balance]

And when the governing cabinet continue to make poor decisions we can vote them out. The EU commission cannot be voted out, hence Brexit was a vote for democracy, not for economics.

Also interesting to note that educated and experienced britains, from most areas, voted Brexit. It was really only in London that the educated voted for remain.

It is of course the so-called intelligent, educated and experienced who worked in the exalted finance industry which brought the world the GFC.

[janner]

It is of course the so-called intelligent, educated and experienced who worked in the exalted finance industry which brought the world the GFC.


Bit of a larf ... https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/06/27/th/

[fish]

And when the governing cabinet continue to make poor decisions we can vote them out. The EU commission cannot be voted out, hence Brexit was a vote for democracy, not for economics.

Also interesting to note that educated and experienced britains, from most areas, voted Brexit. It was really only in London that the educated voted for remain.

I suspect that the really intelligent Brits have mainly gone overseas and not voted-I know of two who are cursing as their pensions have diminished-one in nz and one in USA.I wonder if he will now vote TRUMP with the expectation that the us dollar will drop!

[moka]

I know what you mean, Norway and Switzerland are real basket cases, for example. Britain only has to look at those countries to see how desperate life can be outside the EU.

Switzerland and Norway are not basketcases on GDP per capita

Norway
100,818.50 USD
Switzerland
84,815.41 USD
United States of America
53,041.98 USD
Canada
51,958.38 USD

Germany
46,268.64 USD
France
42,503.30 USD
United Kingdom
41,787.47 USD


https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=switzerland+GDP&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=YOVwV8SgEMjN8gfA1JjIDA

[JBmurc]

Could that be because the more highly educated are warm and comfortable with the status Quo ?

Whether it is correct or not ..

Yes very much white collar workers that never get their hands dirty and mostly unaffected.... Vs the Blue collar workers actually having to deal with the EU laws .........

https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/eu-referendum-brexit-mean-uks-fishing-industry/

Britain joining the EEC in 1973 was a “disaster” for Britain’s fishing industry and for fish stock and the Common Fisheries Policy, which was designed to make EU fishing grounds a common resource for member states has disadvantaged Britain.

“This was dressed up as being ‘fair’, though in practice it has stripped fishing communities of the waters on which they had relied for generations,” the document says.

The campaign also warns that EU fishing quotas and the policy of discarding fish – tipping millions of tons of dead fish overboard because they were not the species a trawler was meant to be catching – have resulted in “financial catastrophe” and an “environmental disaster”.

“The fishermen were thrown on the beach unemployed, the fish were plundered and stocks fell,” it says.

It warns that UK fishing fleets have been cut by 19 per cent since 1992 and a further 40 per cent since 1996, while leaving the EU would give Britain a seat at the “top table” on international fishing bodies where it is now only represented by the EU.

https://inews.co.uk/explainers/iq/eu-referendum-brexit-mean-uks-fishing-industry/

[Rep]

"Many forms of government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe.

No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all wise.

Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others that have been tried from time to time."
Winston Churchill, 1947

[mfd]

And when the governing cabinet continue to make poor decisions we can vote them out. The EU commission cannot be voted out, hence Brexit was a vote for democracy, not for economics.

Also interesting to note that educated and experienced britains, from most areas, voted Brexit. It was really only in London that the educated voted for remain.

But they can vote out their elected representatives at the European parliament, the MEPs. I note Britain isn't having a referendum yet on the undeniably undemocratic House of Lords, or indeed the unelected sovereign. Assuming the UK wants to keep access to the single market it will have to sign up to rules it can no longer influence, and will become even less democratic.

[moka]

. Found this movie interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

Bobdn thanks for posting the link to Brexit The Movie

What I got out of it is that Switzerland is a very democratic country and it does not have a lot of bureaucracy and these two factors have helped it outperform. Too much bureaucracy stifles innovation and initiative, and so does a lack of democracy. The EU has lots of bureaucracy. The film said part of the reason for the success of Japan and Germany after the war was that in both countries bureaucracy was practically destroyed so they just went and did what needed to be done without worrying about rules and regulations.

[Jantar]

But they can vote out their elected representatives at the European parliament, the MEPs. I note Britain isn't having a referendum yet on the undeniably undemocratic House of Lords, or indeed the unelected sovereign. Assuming the UK wants to keep access to the single market it will have to sign up to rules it can no longer influence, and will become even less democratic. true, but the EP is not a parliament as we know it. It cannot put forward any rules or legislation, nor even make any recomendations.

[janner]

true, but the EP is not a parliament as we know it. It cannot put forward any rules or legislation, nor even make any recomendations.

So what is it's function ?.

Apart from producing " hot air ".

[Tomtom]

UK/European banks taking a beating. RBS and Barclays hit the circuit breakers in early trading.

[Jantar]

So what is it's function ?.

Apart from producing " hot air ".

Its basic function is to ratify trade agreements. See http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ftu/pdf/en/FTU_1.3.2.pdf

Note that it has budgetary and control powers, involvement in treaty revision and its right to intervene before the European Court of Justice. Note that there is no mention of legislative powers, because it simply doesn't have any.

[janner]

Its basic function is to ratify trade agreements. See http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ftu/pdf/en/FTU_1.3.2.pdf

Note that it has budgetary and control powers, involvement in treaty revision and its right to intervene before the European Court of Justice. Note that there is no mention of legislative powers, because it simply doesn't have any.

Thanks for that.

Not having much interest in them I have not given any time to it.

As I said.. " hot air ".

Is it them that shift premises every six months at a cost of millions ??

[Jantar]

Thanks for that.

Not having much interest in them I have not given any time to it.

As I said.. " hot air ".

Is it them that shift premises every six months at a cost of millions ??
I knew almost nothing about them till a week ago either. Then I watched this doco https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0 and learned a lot. It is entertaining as well as informative.

[janner]

I knew almost nothing about them till a week ago either. Then I watched this doco https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0 and learned a lot. It is entertaining as well as informative.

Thanks . Will try to find the time..

With Brexit causing chaos with the EU and Banks everywhere having their backs to the wall.

One little piece of good news.. That two faced sly cur ( not you George ).. Er dog an has apologised and said " sorry ". for shooting down the Russian war plane.

The Turkish economy must be in really deep trouble..

[ratkin]

Blimey, today didnt go too well on the markets. Pound taken another beating and European markets failing to hold their ground. Might have to go to Marks and Spencers website and take advantage of their free shipping; Airlines, Banks and home builders smashed.
How long will it be before London house prices begin to slide? I guess in a sense they already have. The average london property is already 50,000 pounds cheaper than it was a couple of days ago, for foreign buyers at least.

[janner]

Blimey, today didnt go too well on the markets. Pound taken another beating and European markets failing to hold their ground. Might have to go to Marks and Spencers website and take advantage of their free shipping; Airlines, Banks and home builders smashed.
How long will it be before London house prices begin to slide?

The mansions have been sliding for some months now..

Was going to buy.. However.. could only find a few in Central London with room for four Rollers..

Where would my wife and kids park ???

[Bjauck]

Except in 2015 the public voted in the conservatives knowing the issue would go to referendum ..would go to a non-binding referendum, which leaves the ultimate decision for parliament.

[Bjauck]

Could that be because the more highly educated are warm and comfortable with the status Quo ?

Whether it is correct or not .. As opposed to what is starting to happen in the UK with companies issuing revenue warnings and laying off staff? Guess which sector of society will be hardest hit - the less educated. The qualified London bankers have international skills and will be able to follow their firms to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt.

[Raz]

..would go to a non-binding referendum, which leaves the ultimate decision for parliament.


Yes and I just love the pound..making serious money on this baby and helps all us kiwi visiting UK as well. So much easier than making a buck on AIR.

[Bjauck]

...
Also interesting to note that educated and experienced britains, from most areas, voted Brexit. It was really only in London that the educated voted for remain. I presume you mean "Britons". Please back up your conclusion that in other parts of England, educated voters voted for Brexit. The results showed that areas with large universities in other parts of England voted for remain.
What about Scotland?

[Bjauck]

I suspect that the really intelligent Brits have mainly gone overseas and not voted-.. Really? Then why does the UK have the highest output of academic research in the EU by a wide margin and a higher per capita output that the USA?

[Bjauck]

I knew almost nothing about them till a week ago either. Then I watched this doco https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0 and learned a lot. It is entertaining as well as informative. That is no BBC documentary. It was a propaganda piece made by the Brexit side in the referendum.

[fish]

Really? Then why does the UK have the highest output of academic research in the EU by a wide margin and a higher per capita output that the USA?

It was meant more as a joke .
However I didnt say academic researchers or high IQ.
There are lots of kinds of intelligence.
The winters are very long in the UK and summers may not arrive.
The roads are far too congested and air pollution is extremely high as you sit in traffic jams

[blackcap]

Cameron was pretty calm today in the house and although it was not the outcome he wished for he and others re-iterated that they would accept the referendum and that Britain would leave the EU. Also talk of another referendum was quashed. But they would not be invoking Article 50 immediately. Also 2 September is when the new prime minister will be appointed for the Tory's.

[Bjauck]

It was meant more as a joke

It did not seem like a joke, maybe you should have used a smiley face emoticon.

[janner]

Really? Then why does the UK have the highest output of academic research in the EU by a wide margin and a higher per capita output that the USA?

70% of all new inventions come out of the UK.

Of course I expect this to be challenged.. Just going by the Patents Office records..

[dobby41]

The qualified London bankers have international skills and will be able to follow their firms to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt.

They may have to come back - they may not be allowed to continue working in Europe without a visa after the exist - no more freedom to work anywhere in the EU.
Could affect a large number of people.

[janner]

The qualified London bankers have international skills and will be able to follow their firms to Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt.

Qualified ???..

Should that not be... The " SHREWED " ??.

What qualifications does Soros have ??

Apart from selling his only family down the river..

[BlackPeter]

Really? Then why does the UK have the highest output of academic research in the EU by a wide margin and a higher per capita output that the USA?

Well, they have some outstanding private universities filled with undergraduates and graduates coming from a small number of private elite schools as well as lots of foreign researchers, who are now wondering whether it wouldn't be better for them to further their career in other parts of the world.

Expect the academic output coming from English universities to drop.

[janner]

Well, they have some outstanding private universities filled with undergraduates and graduates coming from a small number of private elite schools as well as lots of foreign researchers, who are now wondering whether it wouldn't be better for them to further their career in other parts of the world.

Expect the academic output coming from English universities to drop.

Your prejudice is becoming boring . :-)))

[Gizzajob I can do that]

I see there is another petition going around calling for Stuart Pearce to be allowed to re-take his penalty in the 1990 World Cup semi-final, and keep taking it until he gets the desired result certain people wanted. It might be a joke, but what is the difference?

[BlackPeter]

Your prejudice is becoming boring . :-)))

Prejudice? Def: preconceived opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience.

My statement was based on facts .... where do you see a prejudice? Did you mix up prejudice and prediction?

[janner]

Prejudice? Def: preconceived opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience.

My statement was based on facts .... where do you see a prejudice? Did you mix up prejudice and prediction?

NO !..

Stand by my previous post..

[winner69]

England football team adds to the shambles

At least Wales are showing some resolve

[stoploss]

England football team adds to the shambles

At least Wales are showing some resolve

Facebook Post : "Only England could exit Europe twice in a week " .......

[janner]

Facebook Post : "Only England could exit Europe twice in a week " .......

:-)))))))))))))))))))))

[Baa_Baa]

"UK stripped of final 'AAA' rating and FTSE 350 surrenders £140bn in Brexit aftermath". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/

Banks especially hard hit. DOW Banks index off 4%, EURO stoxx Banks index off 6.2%, 18.6% for the week, YTD 38%, 52 week 47.4%.

[Raz]

Facebook Post : "Only England could exit Europe twice in a week " .......

haha it was only event that may have calmed nerves there...oh well....

[Bjauck]

They may have to come back - they may not be allowed to continue working in Europe without a visa after the exist - no more freedom to work anywhere in the EU.
Could affect a large number of people. I think the loss of freedom of movement of labour in the EU would affect unskilled people more than skilled. There are plenty of non-EU in-demand skilled workers working in the EU. There are American bankers working in London and there will be British bankers in Frankfurt after the UK withdraws from the EU.

Unskilled Britons will lose the freedom of movement and less likely to get visas for other countries, and have no choice and will remain in a probably shrinking British economy. The skilled with internationally in-demand skills will be the ones who would be able to get visas to move abroad to Sydney, Frankfurt, New York & where ever.

[janner]

Mutti Merkal today..

The Chancellor reportedly said this was not the time for deepening cooperation between member states, arguing instead for the need to focus on ever-present issues facing the union, chief among them being border security, international security and the creation of jobs at home.

WHAAAT ?????...

A consummate politician.. Where are the chuck bags ??

[janner]

Time to bring out the tumbrils I think...

Will look deeper into this..

[ratkin]

England football team adds to the shambles

At least Wales are showing some resolve

I am a passionate England supporter, however seeing all those beer bellied, Sun readers waving their flags of St George i actually wanted them to lose, just to see them suffer. That is what that vote has done. Sad but true.
I am far from the only one, there is a genuine fear now that we will see civil unrest. Not yet, but when the brexit mob realise that BoJo and co have not a hope in hell on delivering on their false promises.
There are already plenty of reports of the halfwits assaulting (physically and verbally) persons of foreign descent, since the vote. "we have voted you out, now @@@@ off back home"

[JBmurc]

I think the loss of freedom of movement of labour in the EU would affect unskilled people more than skilled. There are plenty of non-EU in-demand skilled workers working in the EU. There are American bankers working in London and there will be British bankers in Frankfurt after the UK withdraws from the EU.

Unskilled Britons will lose the freedom of movement and less likely to get visas for other countries, and have no choice and will remain in a probably shrinking British economy. The skilled with internationally in-demand skills will be the ones who would be able to get visas to move abroad to Sydney, Frankfurt, New York & where ever.

The EU accounts for 44% of UK exports and 55% of imports... I'm sure the like the German autos will not want to lose their biggest export market etc ....new trade deals will be signed much quicker than many think...trade is a two way street ...and if the Scots do jump ship the rest of the UK would be 8+ billion dollars p.a better off ...also the UK will save many billions in payments to the EU (numbers from CNBC)

[janner]

The EU accounts for 44% of UK exports and 55% of imports... I'm sure the like the German autos will not want to lose their biggest export market etc ....new trade deals will be signed much quicker than many think...trade is a two way street ...and if the Scots do jump ship the rest of the UK would be 8+ billion dollars p.a better off ...also the UK will save many billions in payments to the EU (numbers from CNBC)

Russia has sanctions against it... Deals into the squillions are still going through..

Jacque has wine.. Boris has pork sausage.. No!.. We have sanctions..

Enough said..

[Bjauck]

"UK stripped of final 'AAA' rating and FTSE 350 surrenders £140bn in Brexit aftermath". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/

Banks especially hard hit. DOW Banks index off 4%, EURO stoxx Banks index off 6.2%, 18.6% for the week, YTD 38%, 52 week 47.4%.
It looks like those independent analysts are turning out to be right after all, contrary to the fear-mongering label given to them by Brexiteers. With the amount of Baloney thrown around, the British electorate were well and truly duped.

Those poor brexit-supporting English areas stand a great risk of return to how they were in the 80's - poorer than now.

[janner]

It looks like those independent analysts are turning out to be right after all, contrary to the fear-mongering label given to them by Brexiteers. With the amount of Baloney thrown around, the British electorate were well and truly duped.

Those poor brexit-supporting English areas stand a great risk of return to how they were in the 80's - poorer than now.

Maybe it will give a few of those benighted people a reason to get off of their arse and do something..

[JBmurc]

Russia has sanctions against it... Deals into the squillions are still going through..

Enough said..

Of course also outside the EU the UK should well sign some very good free trade deals with the likes of the US,Russia, commonwealth countries ..(wine from Aus/NZ over EU etc currently we get hit with EU 20% trade tariff)

[Bjauck]

...and if the Scots do jump ship the rest of the UK would be 8+ billion dollars p.a better off ...also the UK will save many billions in payments to the EU (numbers from CNBC) The UK would also save a chunk by having to get rid of its nuclear deterrent as there would be nowhere for its nuclear submarines. Its a big reason why the USA wanted the UK in the EU (& Scotland in the UK). Balance of power in Eastern and Western Europe could be about to change again?

[JBmurc]

It looks like those independent analysts are turning out to be right after all, contrary to the fear-mongering label given to them by Brexiteers. With the amount of Baloney thrown around, the British electorate were well and truly duped.

Those poor brexit-supporting English areas stand a great risk of return to how they were in the 80's - poorer than now.

UK fishermen would be far better off for one,,,, as under the EU... UK's large fishing grounds where put under the EU control in turn taking quoter away from the UK fisherman ..

[ratkin]

The UK would also save a chunk by having to get rid of its nuclear deterrent as there would be nowhere for its nuclear submarines. Its a big reason why the USA wanted the UK in the EU (& Scotland in the UK). Balance of power in Eastern and Western Europe could be about to change again?

It is the main reason the EU is keen for the poorer eastern countries to join. keep them out of Putins reach. No wonder he loving the result

[ratkin]

UK fishermen would be far better off for one,,,, as under the EU... UK's large fishing grounds where put under the EU control in turn taking quoter away from the UK fisherman ..

The cornish fishermen all wanted out. Newlyn nearly 100% exit. Now they will be free to over fish for a few years, until they start to wonder why their catches are becoming less and less

[janner]

Of course also outside the EU the UK should well sign some very good free trade deals with the likes of the US,Russia, commonwealth countries ..(wine from Aus/NZ over EU etc currently we get hit with EU 20% trade tariff)

The United Kingdom has always lived on trade.. ( and piracy ).

Always will... That is why the language of trade is ENGLISH..

So a few months of the world not understanding this.. Will be soon forgotten :-))))

[Bjauck]

The cornish fishermen all wanted out. Newlyn nearly 100% exit. Now they will be free to over fish for a few years, until they start to wonder why their catches are becoming less and less Yet they still want the UK government to guarantee the same level of support that the EU was giving their region... Maybe the UK government should link the level of financial support they get to the fortunes of the economy. If the Brexit they supported brings the wealth and benefit that Brexiteers were claiming it should, then they will be in clover!

[BlackPeter]

UK fishermen would be far better off for one,,,, as under the EU... UK's large fishing grounds where put under the EU control in turn taking quoter away from the UK fisherman ..

LOL - UK turning back into a country of hunters and gatherers selling fish ... after earning currently the main share of their foreign income with (mainly financial) services. A step into the right direction - REALLY?

I see them in future competing on a level basis with Greenland and New Zealand to sell fish to the world ... Lose-lose?

[minimoke]

Tuesday 28 june 2016
Press release: N Z Government.

HON Tim Grosser

Minister of Trade
MEDIA STATEMENT

Trade Minister Tim Grosser has welcomed an announcement today by Prime Minister David Cameron under the Commonwelth trade Priorities and Accountabilities Act 2016.

"Specifically we are on a 90 day count down after which NZ domiciled poms will have their citizenship revoked requiring them to return to the Uk" says Mr Grosser

"Our own Cabinet has agreed that this is a mutually benificial agreement which will see the average intelligence of both nations increase over the term of the transition"

"Soon after this period commences we expect other commonwealth nations will meet to sign similar agreements, except Australia who have signalled they need to retain as much intellectual capacity as possible" says Mr Grosser.

"Step by step we are commited to improving the lot of our UK partners. To this end in a special meeting Cabinet yesterday approved a special fund that would see Vaughan Coveny seconded to the English Football team as special advisor."

"The N Z government will take the actions required to open up significant long term benifits for new Zealanders from our first ever post Brexit free trade deal" says Mr Grosser

END OF RELEASE

[JBmurc]

The cornish fishermen all wanted out. Newlyn nearly 100% exit. Now they will be free to over fish for a few years, until they start to wonder why their catches are becoming less and less

completely wrong ...working in the NZ Fishing industry I can understand the issues the small UK F.V have . the hate toward local small privately owned fisherman over foreign operators fair dumbfounds me ....(not long before the Foreign slave trawlers are removed from NZ fishing grounds, thanks to national gov)



EU over fishing
https://vimeo.com/42619545

FISHING
Out of the EU the UK will regain control of our fishing grounds.
The Common Fishing Policy has done huge damage to our fish stocks and has allowed factory ships from the continent to come and take so much of our fish. A UK domestic policy could be more successful at husbanding our fishing grounds and giving priority to UK vessels. Norway, Iceland and Canada show how.

-Outside the EU the UK will be free to buy more of our own food in the UK without the problems of EU procurement laws.-

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/01/28/leaving-will-be-good-for-farmers-and-fishermen/

[JBmurc]

LOL - UK turning back into a country of hunters and gatherers selling fish ... after earning currently the main share of their foreign income with (mainly financial) services. A step into the right direction - REALLY?

I see them in future competing on a level basis with Greenland and New Zealand to sell fish to the world ... Lose-lose?

No you're taking it to the extreme ..it's all about the UK taking back control over many of their primary industry's for the benefit of the Uk population aka UK fisherman feeding ,, UK people etc (as to why we seen such high brexit voting in these communities)
Does it aways have to be about MONEY,PROFIT,GROWTH for some corporate interests

[winner69]

No you're taking it to the extreme ..it's all about the UK taking back control over many of their primary industry's for the benefit of the Uk population aka UK fisherman feeding ,, UK people etc (as to why we seen such high brexit voting in these communities)
Does it aways have to be about MONEY,PROFIT,GROWTH for some corporate interests

Good post

MONEY, PROFIT, GROWTH - the scourge of the world these days

[Bjauck]

Good post

MONEY, PROFIT, GROWTH - the scourge of the world these days Just tell that to granny who is waiting for a hip op, paid for by tax receipts.

[JBmurc]

Just tell that to granny who is waiting for a hip op, paid for by tax receipts.

Yes tax receipts that must first keep those out of work feed / housed etc ,,,before they riot and burn down the local hospital

[BlackPeter]

Does it aways have to be about MONEY,PROFIT,GROWTH for some corporate interests

Absolutely agree. The BREXIT was not just because of money ... though the BREXITEERS promised the voting masses to spend the total of the EU contributions for the health system, for education, for agriculture and for many other areas ... You don't have to trust me - just read the FT:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/da7f4e18-322a-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html#axzz4Cp46u87X

Obviously - every Brit understands that it is possible to eat their fish and have it too. Just read the bible,it worked before ... now they are just waiting for Jesus to reappear.

But you are absolutely correct the BREXIT was not just about believing into empty promises made by some clowns, the real reason for the BREXIT was ugly nationalism and racism. Just look at today's headlines: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/27/europe/racist-attacks-post-brexit/
The BREXITEERS are showing their true face!

Shame on them!

[JBmurc]

An American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellowfin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them.

The Mexican replied, “only a little while. The American then asked why didn’t he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Mexican said he had enough to support his family’s immediate needs. The American then asked, “but what do you do with the rest of your time?”

The Mexican fisherman said, “I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siestas with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine, and play guitar with my amigos. I have a full and busy life.” The American scoffed, “I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat. With the proceeds from the bigger boat, you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing, and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually New York City, where you will run your expanding enterprise.”

The Mexican fisherman asked, “But, how long will this all take?”

To which the American replied, “15 – 20 years.”

“But what then?” Asked the Mexican.

The American laughed and said, “That’s the best part. When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions!”

“Millions – then what?”

The American said, “Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siestas with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos.”



----------------------------------

For decades, the European Union (EU) and its
member states have allowed their industrial
fishing fleet to swell to an unsustainable size,
subsidised by taxpayers’ money – most of
which ends up in the pockets of a small
number of wealthy operators. In 2008, the
European Commission estimated that parts
of the EU fishing fleet were able to harvest
fish significantly faster than stocks were able
to regenerate.

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/oceans/2014/Monster_Boats_Report.pdf

[RGR367]

As it was an American doing the convincing (marketing) to a Mexican, gut feel says Mexican took it hook, line and sinker. lol

[BlackPeter]

Oops ... looks like the BREXIT clowns are already busy in taking their promises back ...

http://www.theindependent.com/news/politics/uk-s-anti-eu-victors-will-find-it-hard-to/article_4547f6ad-e087-5ab6-8c22-beecd3f804df.html

[xafalcon]

Much has been said about the age divide of voters - older more likely to vote leave, and visa versa.

So these older voters have much more life experience living in the EU than those voting to stay. And a case could be mounted that their greater experience should actually count more than some 20-something Londoner, fresh out of university (I'm not agreeing with that, just raising a valid counter-argument to the dummy-bashing)

But the simple fact is that a greater proportion of UK voters decided that 43 years under the EU/common market did not deliver the benefits they wanted, so they voted Brexit

There can be no second referendum on Brexit, because if there is, there will need to be a third, a forth and so on. A snap election doesn't change this either, unless UK is choosing the path towards dictatorship

Before the vote, both sides were equally guilty of "exaggerating the truth"

Yes, there will be some ups and downs over the next period of time, markets hate uncertainty and there is a fair bit of that at the moment

But trying to forecast outcomes (job losses, companies relocating, EU making exit process nasty, UK diminished to an insignificant country etc) is meaningless scaremongering.

If virtually none of the "predictors" couldn't correctly foretell the outcome of a simple Yes/No vote, they sure as heck can't be expected to be believed in any of the possible/maybe's rubbish that is now being tossed around.

The UK will come through this just fine, after a period of readjustment.

And in 25 years we will truly be able to see if they made the right choice

[BIRMANBOY]

HA HA and who owns the corporations? Shareholders who, surprise, surprise, want MONEY,PROFIT, GROWTH from their investment.
No you're taking it to the extreme ..it's all about the UK taking back control over many of their primary industry's for the benefit of the Uk population aka UK fisherman feeding ,, UK people etc (as to why we seen such high brexit voting in these communities)
Does it aways have to be about MONEY,PROFIT,GROWTH for some corporate interests

[JBmurc]

HA HA and who owns the corporations? Shareholders who, surprise, surprise, want MONEY,PROFIT, GROWTH from their investment.

what is better for a country>>

1#1000 UK local fisherman making living supporting thousands of family members ,providing fresh fish for local communities(supporting more local jobs , fish factory workers,boat repairs, equipment etc) ,spending capital in local businesses (OPEX)...

2#Or 1 mega EU trawler paying low wages to eastern block workers , but making great profits for the Company and shareholders divi's

Now of course the second option is most likely more cost effective and bring cheaper seafood to the masses
but is it morally right ?

[Gizzajob I can do that]

Ill take the divis any day

[BIRMANBOY]

Its unfortunately a waste of energy yearning for the "good old days" (as much as it may make you feel righteous). That's what we get for making our planet easily accessible. The genie refuses to get back in the bottle unfortunately.
what is better for a country>>

1#1000 UK local fisherman making living supporting thousands of family members ,providing fresh fish for local communities(supporting more local jobs , fish factory workers,boat repairs, equipment etc) ,spending capital in local businesses (OPEX)...

2#Or 1 mega EU trawler paying low wages to eastern block workers , but making great profits for the Company and shareholders divi's

Now of course the second option is most likely more cost effective and bring cheaper seafood to the masses
but is it morally right ?

[Fuger]

completely wrong ...working in the NZ Fishing industry I can understand the issues the small UK F.V have . the hate toward local small privately owned fisherman over foreign operators fair dumbfounds me ....(not long before the Foreign slave trawlers are removed from NZ fishing grounds, thanks to national gov)



EU over fishing
https://vimeo.com/42619545

FISHING
Out of the EU the UK will regain control of our fishing grounds.
The Common Fishing Policy has done huge damage to our fish stocks and has allowed factory ships from the continent to come and take so much of our fish. A UK domestic policy could be more successful at husbanding our fishing grounds and giving priority to UK vessels. Norway, Iceland and Canada show how.

-Outside the EU the UK will be free to buy more of our own food in the UK without the problems of EU procurement laws.-

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/01/28/leaving-will-be-good-for-farmers-and-fishermen/http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/factcheck-the-eus-impact-on-uk-fisheries
The Prime Minister will be very well aware that reforms that were made three years ago actually put the power back into the hands of member states, and it is the UK Government who have given nearly two thirds of English and Welsh fishing quotas to three companies, thus excluding the small fishing communities along our coasts.” Jeremy Corbyn (Hansard (https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2016-06-15/debates/16061533000024/Engagements)) According to Greenpeace calculations of UK quota, using the Fixed Quota Allocation Register (https://www.fqaregister.service.gov.uk/), three companies hold 61% of quota for England and Wales, so Corbyn’s two-thirds figure is close by not quite right (http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2016/05/15/investigation-big-fish-quota-barons-squeeze-out-small-scale-fishermen/). Quota concentration for the UK as a whole has not been calculated.
Jeremy Corbyn is correct that it’s up to EU Member States, like the UK, to decide who gets access to quota. This is not, however, due to reforms that were made three years ago, but has always been the case.

[ratkin]

what is better for a country>>

1#1000 UK local fisherman making living supporting thousands of family members ,providing fresh fish for local communities(supporting more local jobs , fish factory workers,boat repairs, equipment etc) ,spending capital in local businesses (OPEX)...

2#Or 1 mega EU trawler paying low wages to eastern block workers , but making great profits for the Company and shareholders divi's

Now of course the second option is most likely more cost effective and bring cheaper seafood to the masses
but is it morally right ?

the Newlyn fisherman have been managing to make a living and feed their families fine, they are just being greedy. They forget to mention that Cod stocks have begun to improve since the quotas were introduced. They just have the hump because the decisions are made in Brussels and being Cornish they trust no one, not even people from Devon

[Raz]

Much has been said about the age divide of voters - older more likely to vote leave, and visa versa.

So these older voters have much more life experience living in the EU than those voting to stay. And a case could be mounted that their greater experience should actually count more than some 20-something Londoner, fresh out of university (I'm not agreeing with that, just raising a valid counter-argument to the dummy-bashing)

But the simple fact is that a greater proportion of UK voters decided that 43 years under the EU/common market did not deliver the benefits they wanted, so they voted Brexit

There can be no second referendum on Brexit, because if there is, there will need to be a third, a forth and so on. A snap election doesn't change this either, unless UK is choosing the path towards dictatorship

Before the vote, both sides were equally guilty of "exaggerating the truth"

Yes, there will be some ups and downs over the next period of time, markets hate uncertainty and there is a fair bit of that at the moment

But trying to forecast outcomes (job losses, companies relocating, EU making exit process nasty, UK diminished to an insignificant country etc) is meaningless scaremongering.

If virtually none of the "predictors" couldn't correctly foretell the outcome of a simple Yes/No vote, they sure as heck can't be expected to be believed in any of the possible/maybe's rubbish that is now being tossed around.

The UK will come through this just fine, after a period of readjustment.

And in 25 years we will truly be able to see if they made the right choice

I like your post and agree, i know many graduates that voted for and against EU members that are young. Self interest being the main predicator. Our office in London has all these freaky gifted graduates from all over the EU that could not understand why anyone would vote out. No empathy or closed to the wider world. I deal with the clients, owners that are not all high society, who are often parents who lose sleep as their children have not found jobs and can't find a way forward. Their children in some cases voted out and their parents can see why even if they are fearful of change themselves.

Its all interesting....yes there will winners and loser however that is already the case.

[minimoke]

Who can afford fish in NZ. $30 a kilo for snapper. In the good old days i used trevaly as bait and kawhai was avoided though a kingy on light line provided a bit of fun.

[777]

Who can afford fish in NZ. $30 a kilo for snapper. In the good old days i used trevaly as bait and kawhai was avoided though a kingy on light line provided a bit of fun.

Snapper is $46 / kg in Auckland.

[Raz]

Snapper is $46 / kg in Auckland.

Cost of getting it down the southern, in Harrods its 69 pounds per kg... so is its all relative??

[minimoke]

Who can afford fish in NZ. $30 a kilo for snapper. In the good old days i used trevaly as bait and kawhai was avoided though a kingy on light line provided a bit of fun.



Cost of getting it down the southern, in Harrods its 69 pounds per kg... so is its all relative??
No. snapper was fish of choice for the common man. None of this posh harrods palava

[fish]

I cannot resist posting on this thread now we are getting onto whats important.
No matter how black Monday may seem there is always a bright side.
Fishing in the UK deteriorated after joining the EU.
Sea Bass and Cod were nearly wiped out so I had to come to nz.
I never understood why Snapper were the preferred fish-I guess it was just what taste buds had grown use to.
For me I like variety-snapper are low in omega 3 etc.
Now the fsheries companies know how to keep fish in good condition there is nothing wrong with Hoki-$10 kg!
The bright side about Brexit includes the possibility of the uk regaining good fisheries.

[kura]

Fish, I have a serious addiction to kippers !

But to change subject, Iceland beat England in Euro Cup, I guess that will make them more despondent than state of pound. The Gods must have taken a dislike to UK.

[ratkin]

I cannot resist posting on this thread now we are getting onto whats important.
No matter how black Monday may seem there is always a bright side.
Fishing in the UK deteriorated after joining the EU.
Sea Bass and Cod were nearly wiped out so I had to come to nz.
I never understood why Snapper were the preferred fish-I guess it was just what taste buds had grown use to.
For me I like variety-snapper are low in omega 3 etc.
Now the fsheries companies know how to keep fish in good condition there is nothing wrong with Hoki-$10 kg!
The bright side about Brexit includes the possibility of the uk regaining good fisheries.

Apologise for being way off topic, but now we have a true Fish expert on, can you tell me if Snapper are the same as Bream?

[777]

Cost of getting it down the southern, in Harrods its 69 pounds per kg... so is its all relative??

You are A..e about face. Snapper readily available in Waitemata Harbour and has to be freighted to CHC an yet it is 2/3rds of the price when it arrives.

[Baa_Baa]

While you lot are out fishing, Italy's banks are crashing, the house of cards is falling. Interesting quote "This is the moment of truth we have all been waiting for a long time. We just didn't know it would be Brexit that set the elephant loose," http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/81546085/italy-plans-7569-billion-rescue-of-its-financial-system

Won't af, afff, affek, affect, us here though, will it. 🐟

[JBmurc]

Who can afford fish in NZ. $30 a kilo for snapper. In the good old days i used trevaly as bait and kawhai was avoided though a kingy on light line provided a bit of fun.

rather pay $18kilo and get a piece of blue cod.....or gurnard,rig,elephant,trumpeter,Groper,green bone,school shark all very nice eating

personal wouldn't even waste my time filleting out a snapper or kingie ....glad we don't see much in the south

[Raz]

rather pay $18kilo and get a piece of blue cod.....or gurnard,rig,elephant,trumpeter,Groper,green bone,school shark all very nice eating

personal wouldn't even waste my time filleting out a snapper or kingie ....glad we don't see much in the south

Agree..love being home in NZ and in particular down south to eat fish..spend most of my time on West Coast of US and you would not want to eat any fish off that coast..red tide is soo bad.

[Beagle]

Snapper is $46 / kg in Auckland.

With Brexit we'll all "Buy Hoki" (with apologies to the late Selwyn Toogood.)

[kura]

My dad (long past away ) had the theory "Colder the water tastier the fish"

[Baa_Baa]

Well there you go, NZX shrugs off Brexit after a wee blip lower Friday and Monday, now up .44%, some active buying in NZ blue chips, most major markets giving Brexit the bird after only a couple of days, Futures signalling that it's old news already, VIX flat and falling, Gold flat and tapering off, the list goes on. Looks like Brexit might not be the end of the financial world as we know it. Might be different for the anti-Brexit UK countries and the fiscally weak sovereign Euro countries, but short term it seems the storm in the teacup might be abating.

[Hoop]

Well there you go, NZX shrugs off Brexit after a wee blip lower Friday and Monday, now up .44%, some active buying in NZ blue chips, most major markets giving Brexit the bird after only a couple of days, Futures signalling that it's old news already, VIX flat and falling, Gold flat and tapering off, the list goes on. Looks like Brexit might not be the end of the financial world as we know it. Might be different for the anti-Brexit UK countries and the fiscally weak sovereign Euro countries, but short term it seems the storm in the teacup might be abating.

Yep.. here comes the bounce...kinetic energy recoil?

[King1212]

Europe is bouncing back...the doom is over....end of world is not happening...for those that bought in dip last couple days will enjoy a good bargain stocks...

[fungus pudding]

Agree with everything you said, JBMurc. Merkel is now talking reform of the EU for the first time, something she wouldn't have said before yesterday. Oh dear I suspect Frau Merkel must be a little nervous with the result. What a shocking bloated mess the EU has become (or always was). Found this movie interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0
Finally got around to watching it. Certainly interesting.

.

[Rep]

Apologise for being way off topic, but now we have a true Fish expert on, can you tell me if Snapper are the same as Bream?

Snapper as fished in the Waitemata Harbour and in the Hauraki Gulf are Pagrus Auratus - depending on where you are, they are also known as Red Bream, Squire in Australia. A related species Pagrus Major are known as Japanese Seabream (or madai) and in Europe Pagellus bogaraveo known as Red Seabream look a bit different but are all members of the Sparidae family.

A fresh snapper is a prized recreational fish, line caught, immediately despatched with an iki knife and placed immediately in a bin with a salt ice slurry then it tastes a lot different from anything you buy at a shop. I have fished on the Waitemata Harbour and Hauraki Gulf for decades and I am still amazed that I can still catch a decent feed of snapper more often than not from a boat less than half an hour from the boat ramp consistently. We tend to eat the whole fish (usually steamed) rather than filleted but we do then we use the frames to make good quality fish stock.

Kahawai are fun especially on light gear and are very good smoked with manuka sawdust and a kingfish puts up a very good fight. Kahawai do need to be bled straight away.

My most prized catch would a decent sized John Dory - I would get one or two each summer. A very fresh Trevally makes a sensational sashami (so does Kingfish).

[percy]

I think I am finding the fishing posts much more interesting than the Brexit ones.
Must admit I do enjoy Snapper fish and chips when I visit Auckland and Northland.

[JBmurc]

My dad (long past away ) had the theory "Colder the water tastier the fish"

yeah maybe have tried snapper / king fish fresh from ocean ...don't rate it certainly not in my top 10 of NZ seafood,,,,,,

[Baa_Baa]

Yep.. here comes the bounce...kinetic energy recoil?

Very quick (too quick) A-wave for an ABC down, but DCB (B-wave) may be in play already. The reckoning could be closer than we thought, however lets see how the relief rally plays out, assuming it does. I'd be surprised if this was the bottom, the end of it, seldom is only two days into a shock rout.

Go fish.

[fish]

Snapper as fished in the Waitemata Harbour and in the Hauraki Gulf are Pagrus Auratus - depending on where you are, they are also known as Red Bream, Squire in Australia. A related species Pagrus Major are known as Japanese Seabream (or madai) and in Europe Pagellus bogaraveo known as Red Seabream look a bit different but are all members of the Sparidae family.

A fresh snapper is a prized recreational fish, line caught, immediately despatched with an iki knife and placed immediately in a bin with a salt ice slurry then it tastes a lot different from anything you buy at a shop. I have fished on the Waitemata Harbour and Hauraki Gulf for decades and I am still amazed that I can still catch a decent feed of snapper more often than not from a boat less than half an hour from the boat ramp consistently. We tend to eat the whole fish (usually steamed) rather than filleted but we do then we use the frames to make good quality fish stock.

Kahawai are fun especially on light gear and are very good smoked with manuka sawdust and a kingfish puts up a very good fight. Kahawai do need to be bled straight away.

My most prized catch would a decent sized John Dory - I would get one or two each summer. A very fresh Trevally makes a sensational sashami (so does Kingfish).

Fully agree.
But point out tastes are acquired-Blue cod is probably favored most in S.I.
Commonly used names are an easy way to describe locally caught fish but can be totally different species between countries-eg in the uk there are freshwater bream and saltwater bream-neither the same species as australian bream or in nz snapper-just a similar appearance.Likewise Bass and mackerel describe a shape-totally different fish though in UK as USA and as caught in nz.
Bass in uk and nz are best eaters-as long as not too big

[minimoke]

Who can afford fish in NZ. $30 a kilo for snapper. In the good old days i used trevaly as bait and kawhai was avoided though a kingy on light line provided a bit of fun.


yeah maybe have tried snapper / king fish fresh from ocean ...don't rate it certainly not in my top 10 of NZ seafood,,,,,,
Back in the day before i left for the UK (trying to stay on topic here ) i used to live off the sea. Snapper was the overall fave - poached, beer battered or smoked. Kawhai were purely catch and release - i never enjoyed them even smoked. King fish steak was ok. For more fun stingray was always a laugh. Didnt fish for them too often a bit tricky to release and filleting the fins was a chore.

But a good weekend out was mussels and cockles at low tide, crayfish (and for the chase i would only catch without gloves) Octopus (again hand caught) with a few pannies.

So image my disappointment went i got to england and tried the fish and chips from under a heat lamp. At least there was jellied eel and mushy peas. Yup, a good move to exit. Time to put an end to the foreign muck.

[minimoke]

My most prized catch would a decent sized John Dory - I would get one or two each summer. ive only ever caught one "trophy fish" a 2m octopus in 10m of water on snorkel by hand. A beast with a 4m spread was a challenge and a half!

[fish]

The only thing I doubt with fishing tales is the size.
I rate my biggest success as an epic fight with a packhorse cray the size of a sheep-it didnt like me at all-grabbed hold of my octopus(scuba) then crushed my hand-and I had Kevlar gloves that it pierced-but I didnt let go.
Too big for me to eat but a trophy I gave away to a friend

[Kees]

In Townville AU a few years ago in among the prawn etc was NZ Blue cod at $8.99 a kilo while here in good old Nz $38 a kilo
I suppose that's the price of trade.

[ratkin]

One more fishy tale. Turns out the fisherman have been lied to as well
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/british-fishermen-warned-brexit-will-not-mean-greater-catcheshttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/british-fishermen-warned-brexit-will-not-mean-greater-catches