Nzd usd

[winner69]

U.S. Dollar Index DXY forms its first Death Cross in the last 12 months

[winner69]

Corn price collapsing while cocoa prices are 50 year high

[beacon]

Hey beacon …it’s .634 at mo

When is it going to stop going up ?

Looks like you got your wish in the New Year, Winner69. Slipped through 62c a few times now, before quickly bouncing back up. Some think NZD'll linger down there awhile, before resuming its uptrend. Let's see...

NZ dollar looks set for deeper short-term correction
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/e...paign=nzh-home

[beacon]

U.S. Dollar Index DXY forms its first Death Cross in the last 12 months

Death Cross Formation:

• When the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, it creates the Death Cross pattern on a price chart.
• This pattern is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating that the stock’s price momentum has weakened.

Historical Significance:


Some investors believe the Death Cross predicts severe bear markets, citing examples from history such as 1929, 1938, 1974, and 2008.
But focusing only on bear-market years ignores numerous instances when the Death Cross signaled minor corrections rather than major downturns.


Returns After a Death Cross:


Contrary to its ominous name, the Death Cross has been followed by above-average short-term returns in recent years.
For instance, the S&P 500 index was higher a year after the Death Cross about two-thirds of the time, with an average gain of 6.3% during that period.
Over shorter time frames, the Nasdaq Composite index showed even more appealing returns after a Death Cross: approximately 2.6% in one month, 7.2% in three months, and 12.4% in six months.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/deathcross.asp

[beacon]

Risks: Iran, Hezbollah or Saudi martial involvement in MidEast War theatre - not just political posturing and noise!

US-owned cargo ship near Yemen hit by missile as fears grow conflict could spread

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have been attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea it says are linked to Israel or bound for Israeli ports, aiming to support Palestinians in the war in Gaza.

US and British forces responded last week by carrying out dozens of air and sea strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and have hit scores of targets.

The Houthi movement controls much of Yemen after nearly a decade of war against a US-backed and Saudi-led coalition.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/cargo-ship-near-yemen-reportedly-hit-by-missile-as-fears-grow-conflict-could-spread

Risk-off if conflict spreads = Flight to USD safety, short-term, IMO.
But more US spending on War = USD weakens more long term

[Daytr]

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...elopments-full

[beacon]

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/1...elopments-full

Despite what David Hargreaves believes, I am unconvinced that Conway is coming to announce RBNZ capitulation on OCR rates.

[beacon]

All bets are off now - in the short term

19 Oct 2023 — U.S. State Department issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert as tensions in the Middle East soar.
Citing the potential for terrorist attacks and violence, the State Department warned Americans worldwide to exercise increased caution.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/19/us-i...east-soar.html

18 Jan 2024 — U.S. State Department: No Sign of "Full Blown Conflagration" despite Middle East flareups
"... remains unlikely to expand into a broader regional war, despite numerous cross-border flashpoints, including recent Iranian missile and drone strike on targets in Pakistan... "
"... We do not believe [Iranians] want to see the conflict escalated..."

If no flight to USD safety needed in the short-term, NZD is undervalued at under 61c. Time to U-turn back and breach 65c...

[beacon]

Trump Wins Iowa
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/us-can...rucial-victory

Trump on track for Presidential Nomination
https://www.politico.eu/article/euro...024-elections/

Trump wants a weak USD
"... a weaker dollar would help boost US manufacturing and close the trade deficit by making American goods more affordable to foreign countries..."
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-weaker-us-dollar

You do the math...

[winner69]

Latest PMI shows December 'miserable’ for manufacturers

Not good