SKL Chart

[Phaedrus]

Steve,
There is no change in the SKX chart - the year-long trading range continues, though in this particular case it is a bit narrow to trade effectively. The OBV continues to rise - this stock is being accumulated, not distributed - a breakout to the upside is therefore much more likely than a downside breakout.
Stocks can stay in trading ranges like this for extended periods of time, going nowhere for years. Anyone wanting to buy into SKX would be well advised to wait for an upside breakout, in my opinion.

[Steve]

It's interesting what the difference in scale makes between LGs chart and Ps chart...

[limegreen]

Oh absolutely. I wouldn't recommend anyone buy SKX now (well except in as much as I'd like to see an upside breakout). I bought in around July '03, and had no knowledge of TA back then. The purpose of my chart is to point out the hope I have that now might be the time of the breakout, or at least maximise the small gains that I've made. I'm not so optimistic as to not have a stop set just below the trendline on my chart!! And I did mention that SKX was in a trading range, as has been noted by Phaedrus before.

Or more explicitly, my chart defines my current little gamble. I'd like to sell SKX, however, to the extent that there is some hope of an upside breakout, I'd rather not sell a day to early like my recent falling out with VTX. The current mini-uptrend defines the gamble boundary.

[limegreen]

A small trade went through at $1.36 yesterday before dropping back to close at $1.35. No sales so far this morning...
Waiting with baited breath... or should that be a baited hook?

Update Has traded as high as $1.37 today. Will be interesting to see whether the breakout is sustained.

[winner69]

limegreen .. at 133 I take it you have given up on that breakout

That half year result wasn't too flash and I was surprised the share price has even got to this level

However was pretty good for you if you got a few more cents

[JAMP]

I beg to differ W69 about the prospects for SKX going forward.

The SKX shareprice broke above $1-35 immediately prior to the RBNZ lifting the OCR 25bps. It could be argued that the OCR increase spooked the wider NZX market short-term - I can certainly vouch that the general movement in my shares today and yesterday has been downwards. Therefore it could also be argued that had the RBNZ sat on their hands, many shares (possibly SKX included) would not have been sold down.

Of course the OCR rise is not all doom and gloom. I seem to recall that it was recently advised that SKX was migrating in part from a net-exporter position to that of a net-importer position. One of the side-effects from the OCR rise is expected to be a strengthening exchange rate (I'm talking against TWI, not $US). Providing SKX don't get too greedy, they have an excellent opportunity to lock in some medium to long term hedging. You could say SKX are in the unique position of changing trains at a most opportune time.

I predict that the $1-35 ceiling will be broken in the next 3-6 months. Just a matter of being patient.

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MVN PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN VTX
Unlisted: BRK

[limegreen]

quote: limegreen .. at 133 I take it you have given up on that breakout

That would be correct. I'm generally pretty patient, and SKX has treated me pretty well (25% incl. divis). However, I'm in need of some cash at the moment, plus I feel there are some better opportunities out there. I also feel while long-term there might be a little upside, I'm not sure that it's going to hit $3 in the next few years (like some other stocks I've bought at this level have, e.g., MFT).

[winner69]

Back to the middle of that trading range again and chances are that it could go back to the 115/117

Limegreen - you timed the exit well ...

[winner69]

Down to 120 ... has it gone ex div yet?

Whatever you wouldn't expect to see it much lower than this but with so much negative sentiment around not a good time to try a short term trade with a relatively tight trading range

[winner69]

Only the last trade of the day but a 115 close is below the green support line on the chart that Phaedrus posted a while go

Bottom of that trading range or the start of something new?

We'll know over the next few weeks or so

Down 16% over the last few weeks is more than the market in general has gone as sentiment has turned a bit sour ... suggests a certain unease from a some investors ... todays volume was above average as well .... maybe more are starting to agree with me that the half year wasn't too flash after all

Tempting to have a go at that trading range but too many bad vibes put me off