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21-01-2005, 12:05 AM
#161
GCL got knocked a bit at the same time and is now up 42% from then. EXL up 28%. Even the good-news-challenged AUO has enjoyed a 50% rise since its December low.
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21-01-2005, 01:17 PM
#162
Member
2.65 up 5% after report.. i havent seen it yet but take its a goodie!!
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21-01-2005, 01:57 PM
#163
The reserves news is pretty good because it has a reasonably significant impact on DCF valuations based on the shortish mine life.
The data that will have the biggest impact now is:
Coking Coal Price (At least they've now started negotiating 2005 prices with customers)
Exploration & Development (It seems likely there is plenty of coal there but what are the yields and required capex?)
Earnings & Dividends (???)
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21-01-2005, 03:25 PM
#164
Member
XTA apparently settled hard coking coal prices yest but watch for XTA agreement on semi soft coal prices.. these will set the benchmark for the hunter basin. GCL will get a premium to the XTA price as coal is of higher quality.. i heard exploration costs were only about 1m which will hopefully double mine life.
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21-01-2005, 06:41 PM
#165
The GCL management give nothing away, don't they?
No div and profit forecast from them forever. I suppose no one ask them.
Even EXL, MCC and CEY give profit forecast.
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22-01-2005, 01:05 PM
#166
Upon reflection I think its logical GCL have not provided earnings guidance as yet for next year. As they have only just entered negotiations for 2005 coking coal prices they would not want to pre-empt the price outcomes by disclosing any numbers to the market.
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22-01-2005, 10:28 PM
#167
I think the reporting by GCL in a couple of weeks time will provide more detail and guidance. I don't see dividend happening this year though. Maybe. It will also have to be unfranked.
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25-01-2005, 12:43 AM
#168
40 cents should be easy if they achieve the sorts of coal prices others are getting. They should get down to almost debt free while they're at it too. Although the dividend won't be franked I anticipate a gross return of 40 cents would go a long way towards supporting at least a high $3 and hopefully a $4+ share price.
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31-01-2005, 02:29 PM
#169
GCL copping a bit of a sell off this morning.
Still it was probably due a bit of a breather. Some of the technical charts were starting to look ambitious.
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31-01-2005, 03:05 PM
#170
Member
on the back of HWE going into receivership .. HWE dig their coal out of the ground for them .. buying opportunity!! result due end of feb..
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