AIR - Air NZ.

[OldGuy]

Does anyone actually know how often AIR NZ execs are permitted to sell each year? And, would it not make sense for some of them to sell out given the recent rapid drop in SP if they don't have another opportunity for a few months?

While I accept there could be some element of unethical/inside trading involved, you can't point straight to that every time an exec sells shares. It makes you look a bit silly IMHO

[stoploss]

Does anyone actually know how often AIR NZ execs are permitted to sell each year? And, would it not make sense for some of them to sell out given the recent rapid drop in SP if they don't have another opportunity for a few months?

While I accept there could be some element of unethical/inside trading involved, you can't point straight to that every time an exec sells shares. It makes you look a bit silly IMHO

I think the point is they have sold . Then a profit guidance has been released , mentioning increased competition etc . It's not the fact someone has sold some shares , it's in the timing re the release of a price sensitive announcement . Surely some of the management were aware of this information , so you can question the reasoning behind the sales .....

[OldGuy]

That is just one possible explanation. Inference is difficult. Poor inference is easy.

[mikeybycrikey]

Obviously with insiders it is hard to prove or disprove any allegations that they have acted wrongly or with poor judgement. They all have information that we don't and we trust that they don't profit from that information in ways that we can't. We'll never prove it either way.

It's good to see the disclosure that David Morgan sold out at $2.50 hasn't swayed anyone from thinking that insiders are cashing in at the height of the boom.

Anyway, how does one get an invite to this Investor Day? Surely between all of the holders here on ST we must own a good chunk of their stock. Enough for someone to get on the guest list. Or is it just open to bankers and fund managers?

[sb9]

It's good to see the disclosure that David Morgan sold out at $2.50 hasn't swayed anyone from thinking that insiders are cashing in at the height of the boom.

That opinion might change if we were to see another disclosure today of someone selling y'day at the peak?

[Beagle]

Management are very fortunate that the SP has tracked north since the VAH announcement on Monday and the investor day presentation on Tuesday. Knowing how the FMA and NZX work this gives them a very convenient defence against any suggestion that the actual release of that information was price sensitive in a negative way. Having invested a huge amount of time in the SUM matter and hundreds of hours working with the Securities Commission on a finance company matter in years gone by I believe this convenient SP bounce would render any further enquiries on this matter as ineffective. I believe you good folks already know my view on the morality of this matter though...Greed, self interest and human nature are seldom pretty things to watch as they play themselves out...over and out from me on that matter.

I can only conclude from the release of yesterday's investor day information that institutions took some comfort from management's belief that yields will normalise in the due course of time and seeing as launch specials are normally limited time frame events for other airlines to build demand and establish their new route management probably have a reasonable basis to be thinking the way they are.

I guess that begs the question of what is fair value at present now we know VAH is a cancerous pup and FY17 is a fairly reasonable sized downgrade to FY16. For me a lot depends on the successful extrication from VAH. If they can do that I can see $3 again in the foreseeable future, without that I see the SP tracking mostly sideways with swings up and down depending on market sentiment and any other new competitors that might enter the market or any other new route AIR are embarking on. I see the SP was $2.55 at the end of June 2015..history could easily repeat this year in my opinion.

$2.60 plus or minus 20 cents in the meantime till VAH is sold. My 2 cents but DYOR and this is not a recommendation one way or the other. For what its worth if anyone is interested, I am not looking to add any shares to my modest position at this stage.

[workingdad]

Interesting stand off for the last 20mins on AIR. No shares traded and sellers locked at 2.57. Who will flinch first......

[Tony Two Gloves]

Well I guess we know who flinched now...........was beating myself up for not buying at $2.50 a couple of days ago, think $2.35 may be quite realistic now.

[BeeBop]

Well I guess we know who flinched now...........was beating myself up for not buying at $2.50 a couple of days ago, think $2.35 may be quite realistic now.

And I was happy I had got back in at 2.51! Mind you, I am in for the longer term yield. Was surprised to see the 2.60+ yesterday so quickly. I can never catch stocks at the tops or bottoms so always happy to buy something I believe in at a price that I haven't had to chase and fits with the portfolio.

[trader_jackson]

For everyone's knowledge... (not sure if it has already been mentioned)

Forsyth slashes 12 month target price from $3.30 to $2.80 noting the "cycle now turning against AIR", "with competitive pressures beginning to impact and fuel prices rising"

Lowering the price target was mainly as a result of:
- Earnings Revisions to FY17 estimate
- Applying historic average (to price to book valuation) as opposed to premium
- Reducing market PE relative multiple given increasingly defensive nature of domestic market

Although I don't follow AIR in-depth, I did happen to see it's share price performance has been "adverse" recently... personally, I'm expecting AIR to be more volatile than ever

As always, DYOR, and hopefully this was of use