AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

Waiting to see if AIR breaks below $1.99...

Your answer came quickly.

[arc]

Couta
Your right... so much for market sentiment...

Sharks are in the water... They are building a ladder... DOWN
Its an interesting process to watch. The slow creep upwards from 196, testing the waters, but also bridging a psychological gap...
Im limited to a 20min delay here... some of you however, likely know the outcome already.

[bryndlefly]

the shareprice graph for the last 2 years suggests to me that the sp would have to dip below about $1.90 for the support trendline to be crossed. Is that about right? I think all these sellers are jumping the gun a bit. But, if they want to miss out on the september dividend thats their choice i suppose...

[Hoop]

Waiting to see if AIR breaks below $1.99...

Your answer came quickly.

This drop to 196 on very small volume looks like a Shakeout to me..

200 is a support area and for a moment the highest buyer was at 1.96...This is the opportunity for this devious player to strike and try to create a technical breakdown by selling a small amount of shares in an attempt to buy a large volume of shares during the technical breakdown selling...........that effort has failed so far....

A shakeout can be seen as a bullish action...someone (usually a large player) wanting to buy into AIR.

[arc]

I might be foolish but I grabbed some at $2.00
Couldnt resist.

[forest]

I might be foolish but I grabbed some at $2.00
Couldnt resist.

Ongoing Disclosure Notice
Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests
Section 19T(2), Securities Markets Act 1988
A Details of director or officer

Name of director or officer of public issuer:
Robert Jan Jager
Name of public issuer: Air New Zealand Limited
Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
Position held in public issuer: Director
B Securities in public issuer or related body corporate to which this disclosure relates

Number, class, and type of securities: 1
NUMBER OF SECURITIES HELD AFTER CHANGE
24,500 Ordinary Shares

C Nature of relevant interest and name of registered holder
Nature of relevant interest in those securities: 2 Beneficial Entitlement
Name of registered holder of those securities 3 Robert Jan Jager
D Details of acquisitions and disposals
If the relevant interest was acquired—
Date of acquisition: 4 11 July 2014
Consideration paid for acquisition: 5 NZ$49,884.21

[Beagle]

It's hard to figure why they're down 13% from $2.28 which so many positive things on the go for the company.
Record profit about to be announced next month, record final dividend shortly thereafter, first in the world with the new stretched super efficient Dreamliner 787-9 ordered a decade ago at what is thought to be a deeply discounted price and at an exchange rate that was dramatically less favourable that what it was actually settled at, (i.e. they're paying for these new planes at a very favourable current exchange rate) and nine more coming with options for another 8 if they want them, oil price now below where it was when the latest bunch of extremists, (ISUS), started their radical plans.

According to Reuters survey of seven analysts forecasts the average consensus is for 2015 after tax earnings of $262m or EPS of 23.61 cps. At $2.00 that puts the stock on a 2015 PE of 8.47. The company has plans and aspirations to grow the top line at 5-7% per year.
The SP seems amazing value to me, especiallly trading cum a circa 7 cps fully imputed final dividend.

I'm estimating 14 cps dividends for the 2015 year which when you take into account the value of the full imputation crredits attached this places AIR at $2.00 on a forecast gross yield of 9.7% with excellent prospects for growth in subsequent years.

[arc]

Couta, Bryndlefly, Hoop, Forest, Roger

I think that somewhere between all of your comments there is a background scenario playing out. Sudden fall.... for no "real" reason. Heavier traffic today... possibly close to someones "desired" limit, or still just above it.
I get the feeling someone wanted to break the 200c barrier purely for its psychological effect... it may still happen?

The Div is approaching and suddenly theres an "unstable nature" to the price..?

I find it interesting the way the 94 then 96, 96.5, 97, 97.5, 98, 98.5, 99, 99.5 happened. All those little .5 increases popped up in very quick succession.
I smell an algo and an HFT dark pool at play...

[bryndlefly]

Something i thought might be a factor - I wonder if all the selling at around $2 is because anyone who bought into AIR before about mid 2012 would have paid around a dollar a share. I bought mine back then, and its certainly pretty tempting to sell now that they've got that magical 100% number next to them in my portfolio... but then i'm greedy and am holding out for a 200% increase. Come on $3... ha ha

[arc]

Buy more!!! :d

Support the moosie retirement fund... laughing

Must admit, im dumping some disappointing ASX:-mining stuff, to take a bigger stake.