Gold

[Skol]

If the 1980 gold rout repeats itself gold will eventually fall to about $655.

[Bobcat.]

There is way too much growing discontent with Fiat currencies to see Gold lose its lustre. It's bounced off 1320USD which confirms (for now) the trend-line formed off its double bottom of $1180 three months ago. The ongoing investigations and law-suits to do with gold price fixing have also yet to pan out. This will reduce the amount of shorting by banks and other companies now feeling more exposed to related law suits.

I'm buying, not selling.

The only concern I have is that typically as Equity markets suffer a major correction, the US dollar strengthens as money flows into hard currency (cash). That typically drops the price of Gold. However, what used to be typical in monetary and fiscal economics has of late (thanks partially to the Fed's intrusions) been quite topsy turvy. And so nonetheless, I'm picking that the price of gold will now continue to rise, and am trading accordingly.

BC

[KiwiGreen]

Lots of discussion here on the US economy breaking down vs the Chinese economy breaking down. These are the two largest in the world and so inevitably interconnected with each other and the rest of the world. If one economy or stockmarket plummets, the other will do the same - and the rest of the world will follow suit. Both will undoubtedly then rebuild.

At this point in time the US stockmarkets are certainly overbought by all indicators. The economy itself however isn't so shaky. Given most experts believe we are in a 17 year cyclical bear market, everything points to a downturn in the equities market sometime soon (http://www.forbes.com/sites/sharding...-secular-bear/)

However this time I can't imagine it will reach so far into everyone's lives as it did when when combined with the housing bubble in 2007/8. The 'end of the world' fear was dramatic back then, this time the fear will be much more contained within the stockmarkets which have risen largely on money printing and very low interest leverage.

I feel equities certainly need the correction to be able to finish this bear market and begin a nice long bull market.

One argument against stock market collapse is a slowdown that allows P/E ratios, GDP etc to catch up. Nice idea, but everyone should now know that is impossible in practice. Internet, media and general information sharing means that things now happen very quickly and get over-exaggerated. If markets slow it only takes a little bit of fear to start, spread and then snowball until the sky is falling!

I am not invested in gold in any way.

[Logen Ninefingers]

I feel a lot of the argument around gold seems to focus on attacking the metal itself as well as 'gold bug's, whereas this is about 2 schools of thought: one is that the USA and large banks can very tightly control currencies, free markets, the local and global economies, and world events which give rise to conflict. The other is that they can't: that these events are too large and unpredictable to be controlled.

[Skol]

Crimea's off the front page, but Putin's gonna get what's coming to him, it's going to be very, very expensive.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...t-tougher.html

Russia might be parting with some of its gold to shore up the finances.

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2014...interest-rate/

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...n-deepens.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...to-crimea.html
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A2I08320140319

[Hoop]

Coppock indicator is known as a reliable indicator for the DOW in finding the start of a new Bull market cycle...Its reliability is lessened in other markets...who knows with Gold as the records I have doesn't chart back far enough to get historical confirmation..however I am observing a faint upturn off the bottom for the Coppock indicator....Is it reliable??? maybe ..but I wouldn't bet my life on it...I find a good confirmation is the MA crossover..If this happens within the next month or two then the chances of a new bull calf being born is looking very good indeed..

Click here for the DOW thread where there is more explanation chartwise

[Logen Ninefingers]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11225845

.....showed a slide in the pace of US manufacturing growth, while China's manufacturing also provided cause for concern.

[Bobcat.]

Yes, the fall to 1320USD from 1390USD last week was too fast to bounce nicely from there, but bounce it soon will, IMO. There is way too much fear and uncertainty about fiat currencies holding their value, as well as serious scrutiny into gold price fixing for it not to.

Having said that, until a new level of price support is confirmed (later this week I expect), I'll stay weighted more towards explorers rather than poorly/un-hedged, price-sensitive producers such as TRY, PRU, RSG, etc.

OGC (which I sold last month) has came a long way off last week's highs to trade this morning on the nzx at $2.65. At that price, it's now back on my watch list, and will look to buy into it again soon...especially if it breaks through $2.50AUD.

[Skol]

Where's Daytr?

Gold has to go up $110 to meet his forecast of $1420 by the end of the month.