If National wins ...

[CJ]

Agree that the trickle down theory from the top doesn't nessarily work as good as the theroy

But remember, that married man also gets working for families so (without doing the sums) is probably a net beneficiary, not a taxpayer. 50% of households in NZ are net beneficiaries from memory (can be bothered finding the reseach on this one).

[POSSUM THE CAT]

CJ working for families was another subsidy for business. If the true costs were shown would those businesses even be in existence. We can give private companies a subsidy but when comes to subsidy for govt. organisations such as NZ built locomotives for railways. No they go out & buy cheaper Chinese built locomotives that when delivered are not up to the job Also how are the new Wellington electric trains performing.

[CJ]

WFF is a subsidy for business - will have to think about this. I know where you are coming from but it could all get circular if you keep going - ie. WFF is not a subsidy for business it is a wages subsidy for employees because the business is earns more (based on your argument) so the business can pay/hire more. As I said, I will think about it.

The trains is an interesting case study as the government can factor more things in than private companies.. Did the govt just look at the headline cost or did they factor in trickdown etc if they hired the NZ company. ie. x% of contract price would go to wages would would give back to the govt in PAYE. It would employ people saving money on benefits. THat net wages would then be spent in the community (GST and extra jobs means extra PAYE and employment) ......

It might just be that after this was all factored in, the Chinese were still cheaper. I know the Warehouse use to have a policy (and may still have) where they would by NZ made even if it was upto 10% more expensive than imported. We all know how much imported stuff they bring in.

[elZorro]

CJ, if I can be so bold, you are parroting National Party figures about the net tax being zero for many people. I've looked into that in this thread or another one, and it is a carefully worded document that many have latched onto and started frothing at the mouth over.

But in fact we all pay pseudo taxes in terms of GST, levies on fuel, tobacco, gaming, power and SOE profits, etc. That document really only covered PAYE. The whole idea of GST was to take our minds off the total tax take. GST started at 10%, now it's 15%. But in terms of evening out the tax each person pays depending on spend (not income) it's good.

The trickle down theory has never worked properly in any country in the world, according to some studies that were summarised (OK, probably by a leftie).

I think the NZ carriages were only going to be 20% more expensive, so yes, the govt absolutely must have dropped the ball there. At least Labour would have been smart enough to do the right thing.

I agree with Possum the Cat, until average NZers have more cash in their pockets, many retail businesses and allied employers will struggle. I noted that Possum's example had $75 a week costs in transport (add other energy costs too). This is where a big chunk of spare cash has disappeared - into higher energy costs.

[CJ]

Accept that the net beneficiary comment was in relation to PAYE only. While not completely absolving my sins, I do note that rent/mortgage costs are not subject to GST which is a major expense of the lower income. I also don't know if other forms of benefit such as accommodation supplement were included but unless proven otherwise, we will assume it was.

If it was only 20% more expense, then it does seem as if a ball was dropped.

Will have to think about the trickle up theory. Surely there will be deadweight cost in there just the same as with the trickle down theory.

[elZorro]

Fair comments CJ, I forgot no GST on rentals.

Looks like Kiwirail might be selling the Dunedin workshops, after shedding jobs there by degrees. Here's a union take on the whole saga.

http://www.rmtunion.org.nz/articles/...tock-in-nz.php

There was another big contract for Auckland rolling stock that went overseas too. All this lines up with a National Party agenda to ensure the rail infrastructure is again allowed to go into disrepair, and certainly to hammer the govt wage bill for rail. Amongst other real costs, that's our light to heavy industrial training facilities being plundered.

Sure enough, KiwiRail were told by the govt that as an SOE, they were only to consider the purchasing decisions on their own merit to that organisation, in other words, completely on price/costs. So even if the local manufacturing cost was say 10% more, it wouldn't have been awarded. The overall picture would surely have meant both huge contracts should have stayed locally sourced.

I'm beginning to think that if we want any sort of job prospects in NZ for our children, we'll need to vote National out.

[fungus pudding]

[/B]I'm beginning to think that if we want any sort of job prospects in NZ for our children, we'll need to vote National out.

Not so eZ. You have always thought that.

[elZorro]

Not so eZ. You have always thought that.

FP, lets just say that I've progressed from showing the left side of some political arguments for the sake of a discussion, to being horrified about the way National is running the country down. I don't think it's all external factors - under their watch only a few will prosper.

The percentage of unemployed people continues to rise.

[CJ]

ElZorro - And I was horrified by the dramatic increase in expenditure toward the end of Labours last spell in government. How big did the public sector get. How many bribes did they give away (interest free student loans anyone???).

Both have their strengths and weaknesses. Its a shame we cant set laws/make decisions by referendum.

[elZorro]

ElZorro - And I was horrified by the dramatic increase in expenditure toward the end of Labours last spell in government. How big did the public sector get. How many bribes did they give away (interest free student loans anyone???).

Both have their strengths and weaknesses. Its a shame we cant set laws/make decisions by referendum.

CJ, I got the feeling Labour were putting in place some of their end goals in the last year or so of the two terms. They funded a good chunk of Maungatautari Ecological Park, the R&D tax credits were put in place (Innovation Park had already been kicked off in Hamilton) and the entire economy was burbling along well (compared to now).

You're upset by interest free student loans? My cohort went through for free, and we took our time doing that, sometimes. Now the taxpayer pays most of the cost, the students pay a smaller part, and by loaning them the money, all the nearby bars and sports shops (amongst others) do quite well. Take out the returned taxes etc, and this is a smart move that ensures mostly keen students stay in the system, and in any case the interest on the money wasn't a real direct taxpayer cost. But the policy does seem to accelerate the relocation of our gradudates overseas, at unknown cost to the economy.

Bribes? Labour tried to match the tax cuts being offered to voters by National. Looks like Michael Cullen was right, it was best to hold onto that nest egg.

David Parker's name popped up again in a google search, I like the look of this article and the one below it (have a look at the hilarious video of parliament, where Gerry Brownlee skilfully deflects a loaded question from David Parker). Detailed article on David Parker - just before the leadership challenge, which he backed away from to support David Shearer. This week on Shearer, for FP (maybe you're right).

http://blog.labour.org.nz/author/david-parker/

http://inthehouse.co.nz/node/912

Late 2011 on David Parker, TV3 profile

Here's one part of the Kiwirail puzzle answered: 300 wagons could have been manufactured here in NZ and I assume would have provided work for about 300 people for the duration, roughly a $30-40mill contract for Hillside. The tender was only 25% higher than the Chinese manufactured and delivered cost, and maybe a bit slower in delivery time (what's the big hurry?). On locomotives, NZ manufacture was not competitive, 70% higher - presume there were no quality issues alongside that. (Yes there are issues, see later on)

NZ manufactured and supported rolling stock, a bit dearer, but every one of those NZers employed would have rotated money back through our economy, and paid taxes on their own bat as well. Net result to the taxpayer, cheaper than importing, and a lot smarter. Note that kiwirail want a lot more of these wagons, over time.

CJ, we forgot about the excise tax on alcohol as a revenue generator for the govt. While it is at least $907million a year (let's say $450 per drinking age person), this revenue is only about 1/5 of the downstream costs involved. But it is a tax that has to be taken into account, and is about 1.5% of all govt revenue.