AIR - Air NZ.

[BRICKS]

WELL time for BRICKS to return to OZZ next Wednesday the ticket is $10 cheaper than last March 08 just hope AIR still pays a DIV this time round as BRICKS is HOLDING..

[paul29]

Is AIR a BUY at the moment at 92 cents a share?

Market Capitalisation: $976,232,454 (@92)
Earnings/Share: 20.67 cents
Price/Earnings Ratio: 4.45
NTA/Share: 145.38 cents
Dividend/Share: NZD 8.5 cents
Dividend Yield: 9.24%
1-Week Range (Low - High): 88 - 93
4-Week Range: 87 - 95
26-Week Range: 80 - 129
52-Week Range: 80 - 186

[boxing_beaver]

Im not too sure... passenger numbers are in a clear downtrend and on the long haul routes air nz will find it harder to decrease capacity. so far they've done that by switching from 747 to 777 services and by cutting num of flights per day. theyre approaching the stage where they cant really switch services from 747 to 777 anymore due to other constraints (747 bein phased out anyway) and if they cut anymore flights they will be effectively forcing passengers onto other airlines. in other words i dont think the outlook is good and there is probably worse to come. check out the hedging update (released last weeki think) for further info on the fuel hedging considering the falling fuel prices

[BRICKS]

BRICKS flies home today and another K RUDD hand out " O what a feeling "

[Phaedrus]

Is AIR a BUY at the moment at 92 cents a share?

No it isn't!

But what about the very clear BUY signal from the break of the confirmed trendline - one that had held good for over 18 months, I hear you ask. (or perhaps not)

Look carefully. AIR is in a trading range and this trendline was broken by AIR merely crabbing sideways. The 18 month trend is still down. Look also at the 4 other indicators at the top of the chart. See how they all confirmed the very timely trendline break SELL signal? Note the total absence of any such confirmation for this "Buy" signal, which should therefore be ignored.

AIR is of little or no technical interest until it breaks above or below its current trading range and is probably a good stock to be out of in the meantime.

[scamper]

goodness gracious -- i've just spent the last 20 minutes pondering this very issue (I still hold a few), and lamenting that reuters now longer gives out free obv!

Phaedrus, is it justified to be on heightened alert for air on the grounds that the 30- and 90-day MAs have crossed over, and the rvi, rmi, and slow stoch are all rising?
whatever, i'm grateful for the pointer that a trend break inside a trading range is a dodgy signal on its own. cheers.

[Phaedrus]

Is it justified to be on heightened alert for AIR on the grounds that the 30- and 90-day MAs have crossed over.......

I'm a bit puzzled by this comment Scamper - these particular MAs haven't crossed yet - I've checked using both Simple and Exponential. If they had, though, the answer would be NO. A crossover of 2 moving averages is a type of trend indicator. Trend indicators are of no use when a stock is in a trading range because all they do is give a series of conflicting signals. You might be interested to know that backtesting that particular crossover pair tells us that it has signaled 20 AIR trades over the last 20 years, comprising 15 losses and just 5 wins. Would a signal from an indicator that is wrong 3 times more often than it is right justify anything?

Is it justified to be on heightened alert for AIR on the grounds that.... the rvi, rmi, and slow stoch are all rising?

No. Rising is good, though (better than falling!) but "heightened alert"? No. Especially "No" in this case where the OBV is falling. Without meaningful volume AIR is going nowhere in a hurry. The Alert comes when AIR breaks out of its trading range. Within the trading range there have been and will continue to be a raft of conflicting signals that are of little or no interest.

A trend break inside a trading range is a dodgy signal on its own.

Yes, but be sure to realise that it was the absence of any oscillator support that really put the kibosh on that trendline-break "buy" signal.

[paul29]

Thanks Phaedrus AIR is on my watchlist

[scamper]

Thanks all. I'm not actually looking to buy anything atm, but am watching lots to see if i can learn and reduce mistakes...

[BRICKS]

Thanks all. I'm not actually looking to buy anything atm, but am watching lots to see if i can learn and reduce mistakes...

IF you look at the NZX turnover it appears that a great chunk of KIWI`s don't want
to know any thing about share BUYING..