Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

I thought inflation, interests rates and cost of doing business will come down before 2025. It's not going to happen. According to S&P Global forecast, Inflation unlikely to return to Reserve Bank’s target until 2026.

https://thewest.com.au/business/agriculture/australian-farming-prices-almost-double-in-three-years-c-11103209

Farmland prices have almost doubled over the past three years, according to new data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-28/cost-of-living-hikes-hit-glenorchy-businesses-customers/102530312

• In short: Small business owners in Hobart's northern suburbs are bracing themselves for the new financial year, as electricity and rate costs increase
• What's next? One council has relaxed penalties for late payments in recognition of tough times

https://thewest.com.au/business/economy/inflation-unlikely-to-return-to-reserve-banks-target-of-2-to-3-per-cent-until-2026-sp-global-forecasts-c-11047426

Inflationin Australia is unlikely to return to the Reserve Bank’s target range for another three years, according to S&P Global, which remains positive about the ability of the home loan market to handle even more rate hikes.

https://www.9news.com.au/finance/rise-in-business-collapse-insolvency-interest-rates-inflation-cost-of-living-explainer/ca18acb7-eeba-4a4c-b08c-a060e998847e

A recent analysis by NAB shows there has been a bounce back in businesses collapsing with a huge 30 per cent rise in insolvencies in 2022 after a slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But with economic headwinds placing pressure on Aussie consumers and businesses alike, experts are worried there will be a far higher rise in collapses in 2023 as companies face a looming recession.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...-decision-rise

"With hopes for a rate cut gone, there is speculation of another rise before the end of 2024. What factors will sway the Reserve Bank’s decision?

Hopes for a near-term rate cut evaporated after the March CPI figures landed. According to Bloomberg, bets have switched to favouring a rate rise by the end of 2024.

Judo Bank’s chief economic adviser, Warren Hogan, says the RBA may need three rate rises – to 5.1% – to ensure that the inflation threat is extinguished."

[Valuegrowth]

Jim Simons, billionaire quantitative investing pioneer who generated eye-popping returns, dies at 86


His flagship Medallion Fund enjoyed annual returns of 66% between 1988 to 2018

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/jim-...ies-at-86.html

probably the greastest trader of the time. who said traders cant make it big time.

There is a big difference between retail trader and professional trader. Professional trader is as smart as intelligent investor. IMO even intelligent investors need to do professional trading.

[alokdhir]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

[Daytr]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

Yep overall, makes sense, but there could be a bit more pain yet for some of these companies.
I'm going to have a good look at Ryman this week and see what I think versus OCA.

[SailorRob]

I hope all will agree that we are in the last part of rates going up cycle ...so now is not the time to shun companies with debt as they have reached their bottomish SPs ...only need confirm if they are viable still and will survive next few months or a year ...they maybe best buys now ...over geared but sound companies like RYM or OCA maybe ....main point being debt on balance sheets if survivable makes these companies multi baggers of the future

OCA is undergeared and has the lowest rates on a lot of its debt that any similar company has ever had in recorded history. Higher rates haven't effected them yet.

The combined 1.6 billion of liabilities is probably under 1% rate.

Nobody knows where we are at in the rate cycle, could be another 40 years to run, like the last cycle. Who knows.

[ValueNZ]

OCA is undergeared and has the lowest rates on a lot of its debt that any similar company has ever had in recorded history. Higher rates haven't effected them yet.

The combined 1.6 billion of liabilities is probably under 1% rate.

Nobody knows where we are at in the rate cycle, could be another 40 years to run, like the last cycle. Who knows.

About 2% the last time I calculated it at FY2024 Interim.

[Daytr]

About 2% the last time I calculated it at FY2024 Interim.

I would be interested in seeing that calculation.
I hope you aren't including 'free loans'.

[ValueNZ]

I would be interested in seeing that calculation.
I hope you aren't including 'free loans'.

I certainly am.

Screen Shot 2024-05-12 at 11.47.55 AM.jpg

[winner69]

I certainly am.

Screen Shot 2024-05-12 at 11.47.55 AM.jpg

You left out cost of equity ….say at 14%

[Daytr]

I certainly am.

Screen Shot 2024-05-12 at 11.47.55 AM.jpg

Ok so you don't think OCA would get any rent for their units. Nothing, nada. Seems realistic enough...
Optimistically at the moment I would be plugging in 4% in that $900M+ column.

You left out cost of equity ….say at 14%

Not sure I would even include that in this equation Winner. Up the Wahs!

I have backed total points, so like a true OCA Shareholder I just cheer everything!
Oh except no tries or goals kicked, that would be bummer.
Perhaps I'm not a real OCA kinda guy after all.