Nzd usd

[beacon]

I am unconvinced that Conway is coming to announce RBNZ capitulation on OCR rates.

Conway did not capitulate on rates. And now this from Orr (emphasis is mine) ...

“Central banks around the world have been trying to explain this ad nauseam to the public - that whilst inflation is coming down, we are not there yet, and the last few yards may be very difficult, because we really need to anchor that 2 per cent inflation expectation,” Orr said.
The annual inflation rate fell to 4.7 per cent in the December quarter, according to the latest Stats NZ data - a level Orr noted was still “more than two times 2 per cent”.

While inflation expectations have been tracking down, the 38 business leaders and economic forecasters, surveyed as a part of the RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations in late-January, only saw the annual inflation rate falling to 3.3 per cent in a year’s time, and 2.5 per cent in two years’ time.

Orr said: “The number one thing that we’re always concerned about is that people would lose confidence that we are aiming for that 2 per cent with real vim and vigour.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EGRCAF2HDJYZA/

[beacon]

Conway did not capitulate on rates. And now this from Orr ...

RBNZ holds OCR at 5.5%; no cuts until mid-2025
https://tmmonline.nz/article/9765228...until-mid-2025

And yet the market dumped NZD... I topped up. Thank you Mr. Market

[winner69]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight

Beacon …what’s going on mate

Not heading back to 55/56 is it

[stoploss]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight

Beacon …what’s going on mate

Not heading back to 55/56 is it

Probably is , negative GDP, retail sales muted ,households struggling to pay the rent or mortgage , NZX 50 gone nowhere for 2 years ,any good news stories out there ?

[beacon]

Nzdusd dipped below 59 overnight. Beacon … Not heading back to 55/56 is it

I've got my powder dry

[beacon]

Beacon …what’s going on mate

US Inflation surprised on the upside again, causing US 10 Yr Treasuries to perk up and punters to question whether the FED promised 3 FFR cuts in 2024 are really set in stone.
Meanwhile, speculation went up that RBNZ may cut OCR sooner than FFR are cut. Also, NZD moves remain beholden to China moves
We are slowly, but surely looking for China+ options - as seen in Winston openly condemning China cyber hacking NZ parliament etc. - despite Wang Yi coming in person to NZ.

On balance, there is no sane reason at the moment for NZD to visit 55/56c, but if it keeps moving in that direction I hope I have enough dry powder (like RBNZ )