AUDNZD - Five Year Lows

[blueswan]

I agree SKID that our economy is quite small that one bad news can knock Kiwi hard just like the mad cow scare a few years back that knock 100 pts off just like that. But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.

Stand back and ask yourself if it is more likely this strong $Kiwi (against $A) will continue or fluctuate back.
The $K pros- maybe interest rate increase--economy seems to be growing ATM
The cons-when ever something scarey happens(like Greece or Cyprus) It knocks the $Kiwi worse than other currencies as its considered more risky

Im banking that the kiwi$ will drop on some bad economic news at some stage,but forex is hard to predict

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE= But based on outlook soft commodities looks rosier than hard commodities so NZ will have an upward bias with Dairy prices going up. Although another Fonterra scare can just derail everything. But looking at the chart we might see NZDAUD scale new highs in the near term.[/QUOTE]

I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.

[Corporate]

I read somewhere recently that globally dairy production is recovering (was bad weather etc) and this will put a downwards pressure on Dairy prices so if so we may be near a top right now.

JT - I hope so ! I don't like seeing investment gains eroded by forex

[Bobcat.]

Auckland house market, Christchurch rebuild and still strong dairy exports (particularly to China) are all pointing to economic strengthening here in NZ and an interest rate hike sooner than Australia's (which is more likely to be cut further before it rises). Parity is not far off IMO.

Today's Australian Employment Change statistic of negative 22.6k against an expected increase of 7.5k does not bode well for the Aussie economy.

NZ CPI figure on 21 Jan and interest rate decision on 30 Jan will also be a factor.

BC

[Corporate]

Yes this is very painful. I've had most if not all of my profits eaten up by the weakening AUD. Not happy!

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Moderately acceptable bearish gartley on the AUD/NZD cross now

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The cross that is the title of this thread aud/nzd

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When RSI < 30

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Yes, 70,30,14
sorry, cropped it out of the pic

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Document on the gartley


https://onedrive.live.com/redir?resid=9BB05532C20E0B17!147&authkey=!ACtn9nOI 6_ECpaA&ithint=file%2c.pdf