SPY - Smartpay Holdings

[Balance]

There were about 30,000 shares sold recently at about $1.10. Where do you see this share getting to?

Fiordland Moose has a better feel for SPY than I have so he may be able to comment much much better.

I note that consensus forecasts have been upgraded for F24 and F25 since the excellent interim results reported in Nov 2022 confirmed that SPY is on a high growth trajectory.

I must be frank and say that I would be contented after investing at 76c to see $1.00 (31% gain) by March 2023 so if it gets to $1.50 by end of 2023, I would be very happy.

[nztx]

I remember when these first ran on the very first announcement a few years ago - 30c up to 85c I think it was,
when first signs became evident of Oz and later the cancelled sale of the NZ Operations.

We have had Covid inbetween and now Aussie progress is well and truly happening

[nztx]

A bit cheaper on ASX than NZX at the moment - 3c AU cheaper + Au/NZD exchange

Guess the Aussies are still sleeping around the BBQ & haven't caught on just yet ?


https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/smp/

[nztx]

Just look at that - NZX close @ $1.225 today

Meanwhile ASX close today @ Au $1.12

The cobbers over the way must be away on an extended siesta

[stoploss]

Just look at that - NZX close @ $1.225 today

Meanwhile ASX close today @ Au $1.12

The cobbers over the way must be away on an extended siesta

113 AUD is best offer , @ .9203 that’s about bang on the money .

[Muse]

There were about 30,000 shares sold recently at about $1.10. Where do you see this share getting to?

Fiordland Moose has a better feel for SPY than I have so he may be able to comment much much better.

I note that consensus forecasts have been upgraded for F24 and F25 since the excellent interim results reported in Nov 2022 confirmed that SPY is on a high growth trajectory.

I must be frank and say that I would be contented after investing at 76c to see $1.00 (31% gain) by March 2023 so if it gets to $1.50 by end of 2023, I would be very happy.

I sorta feel short term where she goes no-one knows (ain't that the case BlackPeter). I'm loathe to suggest any price targets or advice but I've got a few perspectives you could consider as part of doing your own research.

Most if not all the run up in price from c.90c has been done by retail. There was significant trading and net accumulation by institutions that lifted the SP from c.65c to 90c after the Q2 trading update and subsequent 1H FY23 results, and retail took it from there. Institutions own a large percentage of smartpay so it was more akin to one large holder accumulating, another not yet a SSH accumulating (speculation), and one taking a wee bit of money off the table. I think these sort of reshuffles occur after results and they go into hibernation, with particularly large breaks in December and January - so thats not to say they won't be back.

I regard large bid ups by retail as more speculative and volatile. The share has run hard - up nearly 2x from its ~65c bottom in 2022, so wouldn't be surprised to see the odd profit taking which can reverse the trend.

Thats my very short term perspective.

Institutions and investors will be quite focused on quarterly trading updates and the full year result to 31 March. Given the share price has run hard and has embedded growth expectations, any little stumble could alarm investors and traders, and reinforce disciplined trading amongst institutions. Ultimately at these quarterly intervals I see retail money following the strong price signals set by the large block trades to the extent they occur. Its possible net terminal deployments in Australia could prove to be inconsistent - one really strong quarter, followed by a breather from the company, followed by a catch-up in the following period - it may not prove to be a smooth intra year growth pattern even if the annual growth looks consistent. So if I were a trader (I'm not) I'd have my eye on that.

I only give regard to these catalysts for short term price volatility for buying opportunities, and out of plain old interest. I have a much longer investment horizon assuming my investment thesis plays out.

Longer term its my view that the company will be a meaningfully more valuable one in the future (say 5 years) than it is today, and am more confident about longer term price trends than shorter term trends. I'm slightly more bullish on FY23 than consensus, less so in FY24-25 (as for my own purposes I bake in a meaningful reduction in the # of transaction volumes per terminal on account of a deterioration in the economy, together with some mix changes in customers resulting in a slight compression in average ticket size), but still resulting in strong earnings growth in those periods, and particularly thereafter. I won't bore you with my assumptions and I'd encourage you to come up with your own estimates, but I reckon the company has a better than not chance of generating in FY27 reported EBITDA of ~$58m , EBIT of $39m, and NPAT of ~36m (slightly artificially high as it could be the last period where it is able to utilise some of its tax losses). Reckon it could have between $50-60m of net unrestricted cash and have paid dividends along the way starting in FY25. I believe it would still have good growth ahead but the marketshare land grab would only have a few years left so realistic, reasonable and prudent multiples to capitise those earnings by could be warranted, and discount that back to a present value based on your own required returns for a business of this nature (high growth assumes reasonably aggressive assumptions which I believe should be compensate by higher returns and discount rate, together with inherent long term risk in the payment industry). Happy to talk more about that or via PM if you were keen to share notes. Those future reported EBITDA and EBIT figures are IFRS 16 (so deduct say ~1.2m for leases and grow how you see fit) and don't include share issue expenses, so you could deduct another say 1.5m and grow, and capitalise those adjusted figures, as that's how i look at it. NPAT more or less comes out the same and needs no adjustment.

That's how I look at it, and my thoughts evolve as any investors should.

I'm stoked more with the performance of the company than my paper gains, but I'll take them gains no matter how fleeting they may be on a daily basis. But at the end of the day I remind myself that run rates are intoxicating when they are on the way up, and sobering on the way down.

[Muse]

One of mine too for the 2023 competition

Ditto.

Q3 result out I believe on 20 January, or thereabouts.

I note only one brave soul chose it in the 2022 stock picking contest (some moose) - offset by my harmoney pick

[Rawz]

Thanks FM for your quality post. Gosh we are so lucky that you share your thinking with such detail.

I’m currently up 70% and only discovered this after your started ringing the alarm bells on sharetrader.

[Ggcc]

Fiordland Moose has a better feel for SPY than I have so he may be able to comment much much better.

I note that consensus forecasts have been upgraded for F24 and F25 since the excellent interim results reported in Nov 2022 confirmed that SPY is on a high growth trajectory.

I must be frank and say that I would be contented after investing at 76c to see $1.00 (31% gain) by March 2023 so if it gets to $1.50 by end of 2023, I would be very happy.

At this rate you might be happy next week if it gets to $1.50 lol. Too bad I missed out picking more up that is.

[nztx]

At this rate you might be happy next week if it gets to $1.50 lol. Too bad I missed out picking more up that is.

It certainly appears to have legs, and could be the next runaway