NZSX50 Index

[blackcap]

Hmmm... compared to the Aussi market ..yeah true

However the NZX50 looks a lot better if you add the rising kiwi$ into the mix..the All Ords even better

And that is what so many ppl forget... exchange rates. Look at the spectacular rise of the DOW.... o but wait what has happened to all my dow shares when I translate back to NZ dollars? Nothing thats what.

Also this overhyped GOLD rise is measured in USD> Try looking at the price of Gold in AUD then tell me if gold is rising as strongly as it is......

Im not saying the DOW and Gold are not rising, but it needs to be looked at in perspective before one gets carried away.

[peat]

Is it just my perception that the value of shares traded in recent days/weeks has been abnormally low...today 65m..yesterday 47m(?).....not sure what it means ...

indicating that the

“fuel” that propels the market in long-term sustained drive is running on empty.

[beacon]

Banks don't want to lend. Period. What you see is the outcome of the following policy:
Let's lend to property investors? ... Nah, they get overexhuberant too easily.
To first home buyers? ... they have to show a substantial saved deposit first
To small business? ... default risk is too high currently.
To mid sized business? ... umm, what's the collateral. won't let on future prospects alone
To big business? ... they don't want it from us (no demand)
To farmers? ... No way, cyclical business, we're just entering recovery.
To sharemarket investors? ... Haven't you learnt yet? Sharemarkets are unpredictable.
To exporters? ... Nah, global markets weak. Dollar is hurting them.
To importers? ... Forget it, domestic demand too weak. We're
What about personal credit? ... You're crazy to even be thinking about that.
So what will you do with all the cash you are raising, all the extra margins?
Look, S&P thinks we need it most. So, let's keep it. Afterall, we are the most deserving.

[Phaedrus]

[Phaedrus]

Sorry Phaedrus ... counter playing you in this instance ... As I see this juncture as a timely opportunity to top up. (2/12/09)

Fear not Belg, you are not "counter playing" me or the system. You have had "permission to buy" since 30/11/09.

In any case, if you do ever find yourself acting contrary to the chart, it won't be me you are ignoring - it will be the market.

[Phaedrus]

[Footsie]

Phaedrus

How do you handle this situation where your indicators are firing off 5 or 6 indicators and back again all in a few weeks?
ONe cant simply buy/sell buy/sell at each turn. particularly if yuo are a long term holder

The obvious answer i'm guessing is that the current environment is one of "no buying" and stocks should be on stops.?

or can buying still continue under your model in this environement?

[Phaedrus]

I'm guessing is that the current environment is one of "no buying" and stocks should be on stops?

That situation applies whenever the plot is anything other than light or dark green.

Can buying still continue under your model in this environment?

Yes. The model controls market exposure by limiting buying to periods when the plot is green. Currently it is light green so buying can again resume, with caution.

One can't simply buy/sell buy/sell at each turn - particularly if you are a long-term holder.

Right. Neither should you. You don't have to buy simply because the plot is green, neither do you have to sell if it is red. When the plot is anything other than green, buying is proscribed and you should be sure to act on any sell signals that are generated for any stocks that you hold. Long-term holders wanting a lower level of trading activity run slower indicators with looser stops, so that preference is already accommodated within this model and remains intact.

[Hoop]

Hmmm....I think the bull market correction has ended.
Phaedrus..Is your chart green now?

[Phaedrus]

Yes, it's back to green now Hoop.



It is interesting to note that the Dow and SP500 never even flickered.