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  1. #5681
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    I take your point about the media. But what about the dictionary? I have taken to reading that now. Look what I found under the 'I' definitions:

    Insanity: PGW at $1.53

    SNOOPY
    Capitulation must be close, Snoopy.

  2. #5682
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Capitulation must be close, Snoopy.
    When are you dipping in Balance?
    BTC went to $69K and now $16K. Good thing I’ve been warning you since it was $3K! I was right!

  3. #5683
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entrep View Post
    When are you dipping in Balance?
    I already bought back some shares which I sold for $4.00+ back at $2.00+ - ouch!

  4. #5684
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    Finally a company on the NZX beatdown list that looks remotely interesting.

    If earnings can normalise to anything like the 10 year average you'll have a hell of a result.

    Any reasons they wont?

    Price to sales prob lowest in history.
    Last edited by SailorRob; 16-05-2024 at 08:05 PM.

  5. #5685
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Look what I found under the 'I' definitions:

    Insanity: PGW at $1.53 SNOOPY

    I've only been looking for 5 minutes, never looked at the company before.

    But I think we finally agree on something Snoopy.

    Something does not add up here.

  6. #5686
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    PGW shareprice was $5.70 odd not that long ago

    At $2.00 they must be a steal

    Not how this game works.

  7. #5687
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post
    Finally a company on the NZX beatdown list that looks remotely interesting.

    If earnings can normalise to anything like the 10 year average you'll have a hell of a result.

    Any reasons they won't?

    Price to sales prob lowest in history.
    FY2022 and FY2023 were probably 'outlier' years in a good way. Beef, lamb and horticulture (the three big pillars of PGW's customer base) all going gangbusters together. i reckon you would have to go back 70 years before farmers had it so good. Take out those two years and you will probably have a better expected 'average' of where things might go in the future. Like all agricultural shares there is some 'weather dependency' here. But, despite these qualifications, I reckon it's a pretty good bet to double your money within two years at today's prices.

    The big negative right now is I think cashflow. Farmers just are not spending as they would like. The debt position of the company may need addressing depending on which way the banks interpret their financial covenants. But the position is not catastrophic like Synlait. It just means that some of the money that otherwise may have been directed to dividends may be re-routed to repay bank debt. But the silver lining to that is with the dividend hounds not chasing PGW right now, the share price might take a little longer to recover. Some say that for those wanting to accumulate while the price is low, that might be a good thing!

    SNOOPY
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  8. #5688
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    FY2022 and FY2023 were probably 'outlier' years in a good way. Beef, lamb and horticulture (the three big pillars of PGW's customer base) all going gangbusters together. i reckon you would have to go back 70 years before farmers had it so good. Take out those two years and you will probably have a better expected 'average' of where things might go in the future. Like all agricultural shares there is some 'weather dependency' here. But, despite these qualifications, I reckon it's a pretty good bet to double your money within two years at today's prices.

    The big negative right now is I think cashflow. Farmers just are not spending as they would like. The debt position of the company may need addressing depending on which way the banks interpret their financial covenants. But the position is not catastrophic like Synlait. It just means that some of the money that otherwise may have been directed to dividends may be re-routed to repay bank debt. But the silver lining to that is with the dividend hounds not chasing PGW right now, the share price might take a little longer to recover. Some say that for those wanting to accumulate while the price is low, that might be a good thing!

    SNOOPY

    Agreed agreed,

    What do you put the last 12 Months earnings at and what multiple of that is it currently trading at?

    I can't make sense of the quoted PE ratios.

  9. #5689
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    Quote Originally Posted by SailorRob View Post

    What do you put the last 12 Months earnings at and what multiple of that is it currently trading at?

    I can't make sense of the quoted PE ratios.
    The last twelve months from the most recent reporting date HY2024 (30th December 2023) is actually a composite year (see table below).

    Composite Year 2HY2023+ HY2024 FY2023 HY2023 => 2HY2023 {A} HY2024 {B} {A}+{B}
    EBITDA $61.194m $47.844m $13.350m $39.962m $53.312m
    less Depreciation and Amortisation $28.063m $13.729m $14.334m $14.522m $28.856m
    less Interest Paid $9.573m $4.957m $4.616m $4.720m $9.336m
    less Tax Paid (Refund) $6.418m $8.384m ($1.966m) $4.789m $2.823m
    equals NPAT $17.140m $12.297m


    We are looking at 'earnings per share' of: $12.297m / 75.484m = 16.3cps
    PGW closed on the market today at $1.62. So I make that an historical PER of 162/16.3 = 9.94

    Looking into the (not too far distant) future......

    If you take my forecast profit for FY2024 (YE 30th June 2024) at face value:
    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...=1#post1048625

    We are looking at 'earnings per share' of: $3.252m / 75.484m = 4.31cps
    PGW closed on the market today at $1.62. So I make that a forecast PER of 162/4.31 = 37.6

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 16-05-2024 at 10:14 PM.
    Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7

  10. #5690
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    So what would you call a fair share price based on 37.6 today? I think my simple math over coffee must be wrong. 40 cents? I always liked PGW at a 10% plus return.
    Last edited by mike2020; 17-05-2024 at 06:55 AM.

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