Black Monday

[JBmurc]

Nobody who does 50% CAGR over the long term has commercial property. That would be insanely stupid.

At 50% you turn a million into 140 million in 10 years.

yes hindsight should have sold the commercial property during the COVID property madness peak and walked with a tidy ROI (30x 40x on cap invested)

As to the family home yes that would be a good chunk of change to invest with(DEBT free) ...if we didn't have kids then that could have also been sold during the NZ Property peak..

Property is a great way to increase one's CAGR via lending leverage ... I invest tens thousands of my capital over 5yrs sell the commercial property thats been paying all costs and paying down the loan for Cap gain in the hundreds of thousands ROI around 200%pa

But that leverage is limited by the bank with my line of work ... aka banks aren't fans of Sharetraders doesn't matter how many millions in assets one has or the history of company gross trading profits.. also not living in major City small rural NZ isn't seen as safe in property values

[SailorRob]

yes hindsight should have sold the commercial property during the COVID property madness peak and walked with a tidy ROI (30x 40x on cap invested)

As to the family home yes that would be a good chunk of change to invest with(DEBT free) ...if we didn't have kids then that could have also been sold during the NZ Property peak..

Property is a great way to increase one's CAGR via lending leverage ... I invest tens thousands of my capital over 5yrs sell the commercial property thats been paying all costs and paying down the loan for Cap gain in the hundreds of thousands ROI around 200%pa

But that leverage is limited by the bank with my line of work ... aka banks aren't fans of Sharetraders doesn't matter how many millions in assets one has or the history of company gross trading profits.. also not living in major City small rural NZ isn't seen as safe in property values

Yeah true. It's amazing how much better you've been able to do than Buffett in his prime, probably many others like you out there. 50% CAGR sounds light.

The problem I'd have is what to do with the tens of millions of dollars as I live on 30/40k a year.

[Bobdn]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

[SailorRob]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

Awesome, and as you accumulate more then if you wish you can increase spending.

You're doing it the right way.

[Bobdn]

I love going down the safe withdrawal rate rabbit hole. Michael Kitces has done a lot of interesting work on this.

https://youtu.be/6h0aWiHHdXs?si=_S7r08ySj5lQdKeU

[SailorRob]

Good for you. I never feel deprived or go without at that level of spending.

I started on $40k but adjust for inflation each year so I'm up to $49,700 this year.

The four per cent rule: it's a good rule of thumb but I'm accumulating a lot more than I'm spending now. Something for other potential early retirees to consider. It might be too conservative.

I was stunned to find the other day that minimum wage in the hand is 40k a year, so a couple can easily live a good life on min wage, let alone 2 minimum wages.

I forgot to say that me living on 30/40k that's 2 people not just me.

[Daytr]

I think there is an argument for the US not to lower rates at all. Share markets are on a tear, US economy seems to be holding up well & meanwhile the Fed continues their tapering cycle.

One of the big issues if they don't is it makes US debt more expensive which is not great for US sovereign debt levels.

[Bobdn]

@SR $40,000 for two people is good going but yes totally doable. I spent $21600 last year as part of a personal challenge. Couldn't go any lower I feel. That's my base to cover all costs.

Doesn't include house maintenance or replacement of vehicle or other things like that.

I'm "allowed" to spend all accumulated underspends which means a month in Thailand this year and maybe removal of a tree on my property and other bits and pieces.

I rebalanced my holdings last week. Sold 2 per cent of my shares and added that to my cash to get it back to 5 per cent cash; 75 per cent shares and 20 per cent bonds. This is JL Collin's retirement allocation as well, from memory, in case anyone is interested.

Rebalancing always feels dirty and a waste of time - especially when the market is hitting new all time highs every day. Better to do it in the Happy Times however. Not having cash in a monster down turn feels "unsettling".

[ValueNZ]

Also if you have a significant portion of net worth in a house then I win almost automatically.

Wouldn't dream of it, at least at the current prices.

[Valuegrowth]

Yes in the last 5yrs commodity stocks have given me some brilliant returns my best..CNB,POD,LRS,MAY,WWI all tiny micro caps that have seen peaks 1000-1500% Cap gain returns...recently I had AKM return just over 100% within 6wk swing trade ..purchased early DEC23(still holding most for larger gains to come IMHO) RDM purchased same timeframe just over 50% ...

reason why I'm focused on the commodity stocks mainly ASX but also TSX these days...

much talk around here of the likes of NIVIDA which has done very well last 5yrs up 1600%++ .. but chances of going much higher ...yeah no thanks

My congratulations for your achievement! My second biggest gain came from a commodity company. When others got excited about Shipping and transportation sector during Covid-19, I parked my money in few commodity companies. At one point I had over 90% in commodity stocks. My biggest mistake was not keeping them for long term and missing out mutibagger returns.

I also thought about TSX. Can I trade or invest in Canadian stocks through sharesies, tiger broker, Jarden direct, ASB or any other New Zealand broker?

There are better companies than NIVIDA in this world. Besides I can see unsustainable extended PE ratio for the tech sector. At some point tech sector could have the biggest correction as the sector has overheated. Everybody is giving advice to buy Magnificent seven and talking on social media all over the world. I saw the same hype for shipping and transportation stocks during covid-19 period. Later they came down like hot potatoes.

If I am correct average PE ratio for NIVIDA during last 10 years was around 48. Current PE ratio is around 87. Stocks are very pricey too.

Why do I get risk by chasing todays so called overvalued hot stocks when there are future winners in the commodity sector and other boring places?

Cheers!